National Hurricane Center (NHC) Pacific Map

Issued at 300 AM CST Sun Jun 29 2025 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 290834 TCDEP1 Tropical Depression Six-E Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062025 300 AM CST Sun Jun 29 2025 The convection associated with the area of low pressure located south of southern Mexico has become much better organized over the past 12 hours. Additionally, a 29/0328 UTC ASCAT-C pass showed a well-defined, closed low-level circulation with maximum winds around 25 kt. The latest subjective Dvorak current intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB are T-2.5 and T-2.0, respectively. The disturbance is upgraded to a tropical depression based on the development of organized convection and a well-defined center. The aforementioned ASCAT pass shows that Tropical Depression Six-E has a large RMW. However, the cyclone is located within a favorable environment with warm SSTs, a moist mid-level troposphere and low to moderate vertical wind shear. The depression is forecast to remain in these favorable conditions for another 3 to 4 days as it parallels the coast of Mexico. Due to the large RMW, only slow strengthening is forecast for the first 24 h. The system is expected to strengthen more quickly once it establishes a stronger convective core, and rapid intensification appears likely to occur by Tuesday. The NHC intensity forecast is at the high end of the intensity guidance, especially at 60-72 h, and calls for the system to become a significant hurricane. By 96 h, the cyclone should reach cooler water, and rapid weakening is likely in 4 to 5 days, with the system likely becoming a remnant low around day 5. The current motion of the depression is estimated to be westward, or 270/10 kt. The cyclone is forecast to generally move in a direction between west-northwest and northwest for the next few days, toward a weakness in the subtropical ridge, and the model guidance is in good agreement on this general scenario. The NHC forecast is down the middle of the guidance envelope, close to the TVCE consensus. Residents of Mexico should stay updated on the latest forecast. A track even a little to the right of the official forecast would bring more significant impacts to the coast of southwestern Mexico. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/0900Z 13.0N 99.5W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 29/1800Z 13.4N 100.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 30/0600Z 14.5N 101.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 30/1800Z 15.7N 103.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 01/0600Z 16.8N 104.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 60H 01/1800Z 17.8N 106.2W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 02/0600Z 18.8N 107.5W 85 KT 100 MPH 96H 03/0600Z 20.9N 109.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 04/0600Z 22.6N 112.1W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL $$ Forecaster Hagen

Issued at 0900 UTC SUN JUN 29 2025 138 FOPZ11 KNHC 290833 PWSEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062025 0900 UTC SUN JUN 29 2025 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 99.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 22(25) 6(31) CABO SAN LUCAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) CABO SAN LUCAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 19(22) 5(27) SAN JOSE CABO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) SAN JOSE CABO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) LA PAZ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 4(14) LORETO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) ISLAS MARIAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 19(20) 8(28) 1(29) ISLAS MARIAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) MAZATLAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 5(10) 1(11) SAN BLAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 4(16) X(16) P VALLARTA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) 15N 105W 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 13(17) 6(23) X(23) X(23) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) 1(13) X(13) MANZANILLO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) 21(34) 1(35) X(35) MANZANILLO 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) L CARDENAS 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) 5(14) X(14) X(14) ZIHUATANEJO 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) 3(10) X(10) X(10) 15N 100W 34 1 4( 5) X( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) ACAPULCO 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 15N 110W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) 20N 110W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 18(18) 30(48) 1(49) 20N 110W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 16(18) X(18) 20N 110W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 1( 8) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 12(21) 1(22) ISLA SOCORRO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 20N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 25N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) $$ FORECASTER HAGEN

Issued at 300 AM CST Sun Jun 29 2025 798 WTPZ31 KNHC 290833 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Six-E Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062025 300 AM CST Sun Jun 29 2025 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E FORMS OFFSHORE SOUTHERN MEXICO... ...TROPICAL STORM WATCHES ISSUED ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 300 AM CST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.0N 99.5W ABOUT 270 MI...435 KM S OF ACAPULCO MEXICO ABOUT 520 MI...840 KM SE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Watch along the southwest coast of Mexico from Zihuatanejo to Manzanillo. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Southwest coast of Mexico from Zihuatanejo to Manzanillo A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in southwestern Mexico should monitor the progress of Tropical Depression Six-E. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 AM CST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Six-E was located near latitude 13.0 North, longitude 99.5 West. The depression is moving toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h). A west-northwestward to northwestward motion should begin later today and continue through the next few days. Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast during the next day, followed by steady to rapid strengthening thereafter, and the depression is expected to become a hurricane on Tuesday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Tropical Depression Six-E is expected to produce rainfall totals of 3 to 6 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 10 inches, across portions of the Mexican states of Oaxaca, Guerrero, Michoacán, Colima, and Jalisco through early next week. This rainfall may lead to areas of life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Tropical Depression Six-E, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep6.shtml?rainqpf WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible along the coast within the watch area Monday and Tuesday. SURF: Swells generated by Tropical Depression Six-E will begin increasing along the coast of southwestern Mexico Monday and continue into mid-week. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 600 AM CST. Next complete advisory at 900 AM CST. $$ Forecaster Hagen

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E FORMS OFFSHORE SOUTHERN MEXICO... ...TROPICAL STORM WATCHES ISSUED ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO... As of 3:00 AM CST Sun Jun 29 the center of Six-E was located near 13.0, -99.5 with movement W at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1008 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 30 mph.

Issued at 0900 UTC SUN JUN 29 2025 409 WTPZ21 KNHC 290832 TCMEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062025 0900 UTC SUN JUN 29 2025 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.0N 99.5W AT 29/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.0N 99.5W AT 29/0900Z AT 29/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.9N 99.2W FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 13.4N 100.3W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 14.5N 101.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 15.7N 103.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 50SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 16.8N 104.6W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT...100NE 70SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 17.8N 106.2W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 10SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 18.8N 107.5W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 50SW 70NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 03/0600Z 20.9N 109.9W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 15SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 60NW. OUTLOOK VALID 04/0600Z 22.6N 112.1W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 30SW 60NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.0N 99.5W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPEP1...AT 29/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/1500Z $$ FORECASTER HAGEN

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 290518
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Sat Jun 28 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Offshore of Southern Mexico (EP95):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a low pressure system
located a few hundred miles south of southern Mexico have become
much better organized over the past several hours. If current
trends continue, a tropical depression will very likely form early
Sunday while the system moves slowly west-northwestward off the
coast of southern Mexico. Interests in southern Mexico should
monitor the progress of this system. Locally heavy rainfall is
expected along portions of the Pacific coast of southern Mexico
during the next few days. For additional information, including
gale warnings, please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National
Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...near 100 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...near 100 percent.

&&
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service
can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02
KWBC, and on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php

$$
Forecaster Hagen

449
ABPZ20 KNHC 282314
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Sat Jun 28 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Offshore of Southern Mexico (EP95):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low
pressure located a few hundred miles southwest of the Gulf of
Tehuantepec continue to become better organized. Although the
system does not yet appear to have a well-defined circulation,
further development is expected and a tropical depression or
tropical storm will likely form tonight or on Sunday while the
system moves slowly west-northwestward off the coast of southern
Mexico. Interests in southeastern Mexico should monitor the
progress of this system. Regardless of development, locally heavy
rainfall is expected over portions of Central America and
southeastern Mexico through the weekend. For additional
information, including gale warnings, please see High Seas
Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

&&
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service
can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02
KWBC, and on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php

$$
Forecaster Roberts

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 282314
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Sat Jun 28 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Offshore of Southern Mexico (EP95):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low
pressure located a few hundred miles southwest of the Gulf of
Tehuantepec continue to become better organized. Although the
system does not yet appear to have a well-defined circulation,
further development is expected and a tropical depression or
tropical storm will likely form tonight or on Sunday while the
system moves slowly west-northwestward off the coast of southern
Mexico. Interests in southeastern Mexico should monitor the
progress of this system. Regardless of development, locally heavy
rainfall is expected over portions of Central America and
southeastern Mexico through the weekend. For additional
information, including gale warnings, please see High Seas
Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

&&
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service
can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02
KWBC, and on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php

$$
Forecaster Roberts

023
ABPZ20 KNHC 281755
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Sat Jun 28 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Offshore of Southern Mexico (EP95):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low
pressure located a few hundred miles south-southwest of the Gulf of
Tehuantepec continue to show signs of organization. Environmental
conditions appear conducive for development, and a tropical
depression is expected to form during the next day or so while the
system moves slowly west-northwestward off the coast of southern
Mexico. Potential Tropical Cyclone advisories could be initiated
later today. For additional information, including gale warnings,
please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather
Service. Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall is
expected over portions of Central America and southeastern Mexico
through the weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

&&
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service
can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02
KWBC, and on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php

$$
Forecaster Pasch

249
ABPZ20 KNHC 281134
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Sat Jun 28 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Offshore of Southern Mexico (EP95):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low
pressure located a few hundred miles south-southwest of the Gulf of
Tehuantepec have become a little better organized this morning.
Environmental conditions appear conducive for development, and a
tropical depression is expected to form during the next day or so
while the system moves slowly west-northwestward off the coast of
southern Mexico. Regardless of development, locally heavy
rainfall is expected over portions of Central America and
southeastern Mexico through the weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

670
ABPZ20 KNHC 280504
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Fri Jun 27 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Offshore of Southern Mexico (EP95):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low
pressure located a few hundred miles south of the Gulf of
Tehuantepec have remained disorganized since yesterday.
Environmental conditions, however, are forecast to become more
conducive for development during the next day or two, and a
tropical depression is expected to form by late this weekend or
early next week while the system moves slowly west-northwestward,
off the coast of southern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

$$
Forecaster Beven

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 272324
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Fri Jun 27 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Offshore of Southern Mexico (EP95):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low
pressure located a few hundred miles south of the Gulf of
Tehuantepec remain disorganized. Environmental conditions,
however, are forecast to become more conducive for development
during the next day or two, and a tropical depression is expected to
form by late this weekend or early next week while the system moves
slowly west-northwestward, off the coast of southern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

$$
Forecaster Roberts

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 262307
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Thu Jun 26 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Offshore of Southern Mexico (EP95):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low
pressure located a few hundred miles south of the Gulf of
Tehuantepec remain disorganized. Environmental conditions are
forecast to become more conducive for development during the next
couple of days, and a tropical depression is expected to form by
late this weekend while the system moves slowly west-northwestward,
off the coast of southern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

$$
Forecaster Hagen

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 261728
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Thu Jun 26 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Offshore of Central America and Southern Mexico (EP95):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low
pressure located a few hundred miles southwest of the coast of
Guatemala is beginning to show some signs of organization.
Environmental conditions are expected to become more conducive for
development during the next few days, and a tropical depression is
likely to form by late this weekend while the system moves slowly
west-northwestward, off the coast of southern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

$$
Forecaster Jelsema/Pasch

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 261149
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Thu Jun 26 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Offshore of Central America and Southern Mexico (EP95):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low
pressure located a few hundred miles southwest of the coast of
Guatemala remain limited and disorganized. Environmental conditions
are expected to become more conducive for development during the
next few days, and a tropical depression is likely to form by late
this weekend while the system moves slowly west-northwestward, off
the coast of southern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

$$
Forecaster Jelsema/Pasch

260
ABPZ20 KNHC 260502
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Wed Jun 25 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Offshore of Central America and Southern Mexico (EP95):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low
pressure located a few hundred miles south-southwest of the coast
of Guatemala have diminished over the past day or so. However, the
low is forecast to encounter more favorable upper-level winds in a
couple of days, and a tropical depression or tropical storm is
likely to form by late this weekend while the system moves slowly
west-northwestward, off the coast of southern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

$$
Forecaster Hagen

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 260502
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Wed Jun 25 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Offshore of Central America and Southern Mexico (EP95):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low
pressure located a few hundred miles south-southwest of the coast
of Guatemala have diminished over the past day or so. However, the
low is forecast to encounter more favorable upper-level winds in a
couple of days, and a tropical depression or tropical storm is
likely to form by late this weekend while the system moves slowly
west-northwestward, off the coast of southern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

$$
Forecaster Hagen

683
ABPZ20 KNHC 252314
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Wed Jun 25 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Offshore of Central America and Southern Mexico (EP95):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure
located a few hundred miles south of the coast of Guatemala have
changed little in organization during the past day or so.
Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development of
this system during the next few days, and a tropical depression or
tropical storm is likely to form by late this weekend while the
system moves slowly west-northwestward, off the coast of southern
Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

$$
Forecaster Hagen

938
ABPZ20 KNHC 242340
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Tue Jun 24 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Offshore of Central America and Southern Mexico (EP95):
Shower and thunderstorm activity is beginning to show some signs of
organization with an area of low pressure located a few hundred
miles south of the coast of Guatemala. Environmental conditions
appear conducive for gradual development of this system over the
next few days, and a tropical depression or tropical storm is likely
to form by this weekend while the system moves slowly
west-northwestward, roughly parallel to the coast of southern
Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

$$
Forecaster Papin