National Hurricane Center (NHC) Atlantic Map

Issued at 0300 UTC THU SEP 19 2019 000 FONT14 KNHC 190254 PWSAT4 HURRICANE HUMBERTO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 26 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092019 0300 UTC THU SEP 19 2019 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE HUMBERTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 34.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 63.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 105 KTS...120 MPH...195 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ILE ST PIERRE 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) SYDNEY NS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SABLE ISLAND 34 X 1( 1) 20(21) 3(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) BERMUDA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) BERMUDA 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) BERMUDA 64 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

Issued at 0300 UTC THU SEP 19 2019 000 WTNT24 KNHC 190253 TCMAT4 HURRICANE HUMBERTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 26 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092019 0300 UTC THU SEP 19 2019 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE HAS CHANGED THE HURRICANE WARNING TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR BERMUDA. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BERMUDA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.0N 63.9W AT 19/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 55 DEGREES AT 20 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 952 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 105 KT WITH GUSTS TO 130 KT. 64 KT....... 60NE 80SE 70SW 60NW. 50 KT.......100NE 120SE 100SW 100NW. 34 KT.......170NE 190SE 150SW 160NW. 12 FT SEAS..420NE 420SE 780SW 420NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.0N 63.9W AT 19/0300Z AT 19/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 33.2N 65.0W FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 35.8N 61.6W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 60NE 80SE 70SW 60NW. 50 KT...100NE 120SE 100SW 110NW. 34 KT...180NE 190SE 160SW 250NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 38.5N 59.8W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 60NE 80SE 70SW 60NW. 50 KT...100NE 120SE 100SW 110NW. 34 KT...190NE 190SE 160SW 200NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 40.7N 58.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 60NE 90SE 70SW 60NW. 50 KT...100NE 120SE 100SW 100NW. 34 KT...200NE 200SE 150SW 160NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 42.4N 56.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 90NE 100SE 90SW 90NW. 34 KT...200NE 190SE 150SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 45.0N 41.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...200NE 180SE 150SW 140NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 23/0000Z 50.0N 25.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 24/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 34.0N 63.9W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 19/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

Issued at 1100 PM AST Wed Sep 18 2019 000 WTNT34 KNHC 190253 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Hurricane Humberto Advisory Number 26 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092019 1100 PM AST Wed Sep 18 2019 ...CENTER OF HUMBERTO MOVING AWAY FROM BERMUDA... ...TROPICAL-STORM-CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS BERMUDA INTO THURSDAY MORNING... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...34.0N 63.9W ABOUT 130 MI...205 KM NNE OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...952 MB...28.12 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Bermuda Weather Service has changed the Hurricane Warning to a Tropical Storm Warning for Bermuda. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Bermuda A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area, in this case during the next several hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Humberto was located near latitude 34.0 North, longitude 63.9 West. Humberto is moving toward the northeast near 23 mph (37 km/h). This general motion is expected to continue through Thursday, followed by a north-northeastward motion at a slower forward speed Thursday night and Friday. A turn toward the east-northeast is expected Friday night and Saturday. On the forecast track, the center of Humberto will continue to move away from Bermuda tonight. Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds remain near 120 mph (195 km/h) with higher gusts. Humberto is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. The hurricane should start to weaken later tonight, and it is expected to become a post-tropical cyclone by Friday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 220 miles (350 km). Several stations on Bermuda are reporting sustained winds of 40-50 mph (65-80 km/h) with higher gusts. The minimum central pressure reported by the Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 952 mb (28.12 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Humberto can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml. WIND: Tropical-storm-force winds will persist on Bermuda into late Thursday morning. RAINFALL: Humberto may bring periods of heavy rain to Bermuda through Thursday, with rainfall accumulations of 2 to 4 inches with maximum amounts of 6 inches expected. SURF: Large swells and dangerous surf generated by Humberto will continue along the coast of Bermuda through Thursday, and these could cause coastal flooding. Swells will continue to affect the northwestern Bahamas and the southeastern coast of the United States from east-central Florida to North Carolina during the next couple of days. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office and the Bermuda Weather Service. STORM SURGE: Storm surge along the coast of Bermuda should subside tonight and Thursday. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST. Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Beven

...CENTER OF HUMBERTO MOVING AWAY FROM BERMUDA... ...TROPICAL-STORM-CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS BERMUDA INTO THURSDAY MORNING... As of 11:00 PM AST Wed Sep 18 the center of Humberto was located near 34.0, -63.9 with movement NE at 23 mph. The minimum central pressure was 952 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 120 mph.

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 19 Sep 2019 02:43:54 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 19 Sep 2019 03:32:06 GMT

Issued at 1100 PM AST Wed Sep 18 2019 000 WTNT45 KNHC 190240 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Jerry Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019 1100 PM AST Wed Sep 18 2019 Jerry is gradually becoming better organized, with a small circular CDO and some banding features over its northwestern quadrant. Although the storm has some modest upper-level outflow, there is evidence of west-northwesterly winds undercutting the system just below the outflow layer. An upper-level cyclone is located a few hundred miles to the northwest of Jerry, as confirmed by synoptic surveillance observations taken recently by the NOAA G-IV jet. However, the global models suggest that this feature should remain far enough to the north of the tropical cyclone so that its shearing influence will be minimal in the short term. The current intensity estimate is 55 kt based on Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB. Since the environment is likely to be modestly conducive during the next day or so, strengthening is predicted for the next 24 hours. Thereafter, the dynamical guidance shows some increase in shear, which should result in a leveling off of Jerry's intensity. Later in the forecast period, the global models predict a significant increase in shear, so some weakening is likely. The official intensity forecast is close to the multi-model consensus. The storm remains on track with the motion continuing around 290/13 kt. There are no important changes to the track forecast from the previous advisory. Jerry should move along the southwestern periphery of a subtropical ridge over the next couple of days. In 3-5 days, the tropical cyclone is likely to turn northwest, north-northwest, and eventually north following a weakness in the ridge near 70-75W longitude. The official track forecast is close to the latest corrected multi-model consensus guidance. Key Messages: 1. Jerry is expected to become a hurricane before it moves close to the northern Leeward Islands Friday. Although the core of Jerry is currently expected to pass north of the islands, tropical-storm- force winds and locally heavy rainfall are possible, and tropical storm watches have been issued for a portion of this area. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/0300Z 15.4N 51.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 19/1200Z 16.2N 53.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 20/0000Z 17.3N 56.7W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 20/1200Z 18.5N 59.7W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 21/0000Z 19.7N 62.7W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 22/0000Z 22.4N 67.3W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 23/0000Z 25.7N 70.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 24/0000Z 29.0N 69.0W 65 KT 75 MPH $$ Forecaster Pasch

Issued at 0300 UTC THU SEP 19 2019 000 FONT15 KNHC 190240 PWSAT5 TROPICAL STORM JERRY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102019 0300 UTC THU SEP 19 2019 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JERRY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 51.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) SAN SALVADOR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 1( 7) MAYAGUANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 1(10) GRAND TURK 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 10(15) 1(16) GRAND TURK 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) PUERTO PLATA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7) PONCE PR 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) AGUADILLA PR 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) SAN JUAN PR 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) X( 8) X( 8) VIEQUES PR 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 10(14) X(14) X(14) SAINT THOMAS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 13(20) X(20) X(20) SAINT THOMAS 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) SAINT THOMAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) SAINT CROIX 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 7(12) X(12) X(12) SAINT MAARTEN 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 21(24) 4(28) X(28) X(28) SAINT MAARTEN 50 X X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) X( 9) SAINT MAARTEN 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) SABA 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 10(13) 3(16) X(16) X(16) SABA 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ST EUSTATIUS 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 9(12) 3(15) X(15) X(15) ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) 3(13) X(13) X(13) BARBUDA 34 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 16(22) 1(23) X(23) X(23) BARBUDA 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) BARBUDA 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) ANTIGUA 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 6(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) GUADELOUPE 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) AVES 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) DOMINICA 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) MARTINIQUE 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER PASCH

...JERRY STRENGTHENING... ...LIKELY TO BECOME A HURRICANE SOON... As of 11:00 PM AST Wed Sep 18 the center of Jerry was located near 15.4, -51.8 with movement WNW at 15 mph. The minimum central pressure was 997 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.

Issued at 1100 PM AST Wed Sep 18 2019 000 WTNT35 KNHC 190239 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Jerry Advisory Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019 1100 PM AST Wed Sep 18 2019 ...JERRY STRENGTHENING... ...LIKELY TO BECOME A HURRICANE SOON... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.4N 51.8W ABOUT 675 MI...1085 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Barbuda * Anguilla * St. Maarten * St. Martin * St. Barthelemy * Saba and St. Eustatius A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in the northern Leeward Islands should monitor the progress of Jerry. Additional watches could be issued on Thursday. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Jerry was located near latitude 15.4 North, longitude 51.8 West. Jerry is moving toward the west-northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h). A west- northwest motion at a slightly faster forward speed is expected over the next few days. On the forecast track, the center of Jerry will be near or north of the northern Leeward Islands Friday and pass north of Puerto Rico on Saturday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Jerry is forecast to become a hurricane on Thursday, with little change in strength anticipated on Friday or Saturday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Jerry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch areas by early Friday. RAINFALL: Jerry is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 1 to 2 inches with maximum amounts of 3 inches across the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico. SURF: Swells generated by Jerry are forecast to affect portions of the northern Leeward Islands by late Thursday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST. Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Pasch

Issued at 0300 UTC THU SEP 19 2019 000 WTNT25 KNHC 190239 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM JERRY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102019 0300 UTC THU SEP 19 2019 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BARBUDA * ANGUILLA * ST. MAARTEN * ST. MARTIN * ST. BARTHELEMY * SABA AND ST. EUSTATIUS A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF JERRY. ADDITIONAL WATCHES COULD BE ISSUED ON THURSDAY. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 51.8W AT 19/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 90SE 90SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 51.8W AT 19/0300Z AT 19/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 51.2W FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 16.2N 53.9W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 17.3N 56.7W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 18.5N 59.7W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 19.7N 62.7W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 22.4N 67.3W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 40SW 70NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 23/0000Z 25.7N 70.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 24/0000Z 29.0N 69.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.4N 51.8W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 19/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/0900Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH

Issued at 800 PM AST Wed Sep 18 2019 000 WTNT35 KNHC 182342 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Jerry Intermediate Advisory Number 6A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019 800 PM AST Wed Sep 18 2019 ...ADDITIONAL TROPICAL STORM WATCHES ISSUED FOR PARTS OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS... SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.2N 51.2W ABOUT 715 MI...1150 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Antigua and Barbuda has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for Barbuda and Anguilla. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Barbuda * Anguilla * St. Maarten * St. Martin * St. Barthelemy * Saba and St. Eustatius A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in the northern Leeward Islands should monitor the progress of Jerry. Further watches could be issued this evening or overnight. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM AST (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Jerry was located near latitude 15.2 North, longitude 51.2 West. Jerry is moving toward the west-northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h). A west- northwest motion at a slightly faster forward speed is expected over the next few days. On the forecast track, the center of Jerry will be near or north of the northern Leeward Islands Friday and pass north of Puerto Rico on Saturday. Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Jerry is forecast to become a hurricane on Thursday, with little change in strength anticipated on Friday or Saturday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Jerry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch areas by early Friday. RAINFALL: Jerry is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 1 to 2 inches with maximum amounts of 3 inches across the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico. SURF: Swells generated by Jerry are forecast to affect portions of northern Leeward Islands late on Thursday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Pasch

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 18 Sep 2019 23:58:16 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 18 Sep 2019 21:25:04 GMT

Issued at 800 PM AST Wed Sep 18 2019 000 WTNT34 KNHC 182357 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Hurricane Humberto Intermediate Advisory Number 25A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092019 800 PM AST Wed Sep 18 2019 ...HURRICANE CONDITIONS CONTINUING ON BERMUDA... ...HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS BERMUDA INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING... SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...33.4N 65.0W ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM N OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 60 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...952 MB...28.12 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Bermuda For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM AST (0000 UTC), the center of the large eye of Hurricane Humberto was located by satellite and Bermuda weather radar data near latitude 33.4 North, longitude 65.0 West. Humberto is moving toward the east-northeast near 20 mph (31 km/h). This general motion with an additional increase in forward speed is expected through early Thursday, followed by a northeastward to north-northeastward motion through Friday. On the forecast track, the core of Humberto will continue to pass north of Bermuda this evening. Maximum sustained winds are near 120 mph (195 km/h) with higher gusts. Humberto is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity are likely during the next day or so, but Humberto should remain a powerful hurricane through early Thursday while it passes close to Bermuda. A steady weakening trend should begin later on Thursday. Humberto is a large hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 195 miles (315 km). An automated station at Pearl Island recently reported sustained winds of 100 mph (161 km/h) and a wind gust of 123 mph (198 km/h). Wade International Airport recently reported a wind gust of 115 mph (185 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure is 952 mb (28.12 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Humberto can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC. WIND: Hurricane conditions are occurring on Bermuda and should continue for a few more hours. Tropical-storm-force winds will persist on Bermuda into late Thursday morning. RAINFALL: Humberto may bring periods of heavy rain to Bermuda through Thursday, with rainfall accumulations of 2 to 4 inches with maximum amounts of 6 inches expected. Rainfall amounts up to 3 inches have already been reported across portions of the island. SURF: Large swells generated by Humberto will increase along the coast of Bermuda today and tonight. Dangerous breaking waves, especially along south-facing beaches, will be possible Wednesday night into Thursday, and could cause coastal flooding. Wave heights exceeding 30 feet have already been reported by an offshore NOAA buoy. Swells will continue to affect the northwestern Bahamas and the southeastern coast of the United States from east-central Florida to North Carolina during the next couple of days. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office and the Bermuda Weather Service. STORM SURGE: Storm surge and breaking waves could raise water levels by 1 to 3 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate southern coast of Bermuda. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Beven

...HURRICANE CONDITIONS CONTINUING ON BERMUDA... ...HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS BERMUDA INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING... As of 8:00 PM AST Wed Sep 18 the center of Humberto was located near 33.4, -65.0 with movement ENE at 20 mph. The minimum central pressure was 952 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 120 mph.

968
ABNT20 KNHC 182352
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Wed Sep 18 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Humberto, located just to the north of Bermuda, and on Tropical
Storm Jerry, located several hundred miles east of the Leeward
Islands.

A tropical wave located about 850 miles west of the Cabo Verde
Islands is producing disorganized cloudiness and showers. Some
development of this system is possible while the system approaches
the Windward Islands this weekend or when it moves across the
southeastern Caribbean Sea early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms near and to
the south-southeast of the Dominican Republic is associated with a
tropical wave. While upper-level winds are not forecast to be
conducive for significant development, locally heavy rainfall is
possible over portions of the Dominican Republic and Haiti during
the next couple of days. The disturbance is forecast to move slowly
northwestward through the weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 18 Sep 2019 23:44:42 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 18 Sep 2019 21:32:12 GMT

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 18 Sep 2019 21:13:54 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 18 Sep 2019 21:32:12 GMT

Issued at 510 PM AST Wed Sep 18 2019 000 WTNT65 KNHC 182108 TCUAT5 Tropical Storm Jerry Tropical Cyclone Update NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019 510 PM AST Wed Sep 18 2019 The government of the Netherlands has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for Saba and St. Eustatius. $$ Forecaster Pasch

...JERRY STRENGTHENING... ...LIKELY TO BECOME A HURRICANE SOON... As of 11:00 PM AST Wed Sep 18 the center of Jerry was located near 15.4, -51.8 with movement WNW at 15 mph. The minimum central pressure was 997 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.

The NHC has issued its final advisory on this system. Public Advisories from the Weather Prediction Center will provide updates as long as the system remains a flood threat. Issued at 400 PM CDT Wed Sep 18 2019