National Hurricane Center (NHC) Atlantic Map

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 29 Jun 2024 23:50:23 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 29 Jun 2024 21:23:04 GMT

Issued at 800 PM AST Sat Jun 29 2024 000 WTNT32 KNHC 292349 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Hurricane Beryl Intermediate Advisory Number 5A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024 800 PM AST Sat Jun 29 2024 ...BERYL FORECAST TO INTENSIFY QUICKLY INTO A MAJOR HURRICANE... ...EXPECTED TO BRING LIFE-THREATENING WINDS AND STORM SURGE TO THE WINDWARD ISLANDS STARTING TOMORROW NIGHT... SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...10.2N 50.3W ABOUT 660 MI...1060 KM ESE OF BARBADOS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.23 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of France has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for Martinique. The government of St. Lucia has issued a Hurricane Warning for St. Lucia. The government of Barbados has issued a Hurricane Warning for St. Vincent and the Grenadine Islands. The government of Trinidad and Tobago has issued a Hurricane Warning for Grenada and a Tropical Storm Warning for Tobago. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Barbados * St. Lucia * St. Vincent and the Grenadine Islands * Grenada A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Martinique * Tobago A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Dominica A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in the Lesser Antilles should closely monitor the progress of Beryl. Additional watches and warnings may be required tonight or tomorrow. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM AST (0000 UTC), the center of Hurricane Beryl was located near latitude 10.2 North, longitude 50.3 West. Beryl is moving quickly toward the west near 22 mph (35 km/h). A continued quick westward to west-northwestward motion is expected during the next few days. On the forecast track, the center of Beryl is expected to move across the Windward Islands late Sunday night and Monday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher gusts. Continued steady to rapid strengthening is forecast, and Beryl is expected to become a dangerous major hurricane before it reaches the Windward Islands. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 10 miles (20 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb (29.23 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Beryl can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning area beginning Sunday night. Devastating wind damage is expected where the eyewall of Beryl moves through portions of the Windward Islands. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning area starting Sunday night, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area starting Sunday night. Wind speeds atop and on the windward sides of hills and mountains are often up to 30 percent stronger than the near-surface winds indicated in this advisory, and in some elevated locations could be even greater. STORM SURGE: A life-threatening storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 5 to 7 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore flow near where Beryl makes landfall in the hurricane warning and watch areas. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. RAINFALL: Beryl is expected to produce rainfall totals of 3 to 6 inches across Barbados and the Windward Islands Sunday night into Monday. This rainfall may cause flooding in vulnerable areas. Showers and thunderstorms well north of Beryl may produce 1 to 4 inches of rain over portions of southeastern Puerto Rico Monday night into Tuesday. Rainfall from Beryl may impact portions of southern Hispaniola Tuesday into Wednesday, with 2 to 6 inches of rain possible. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding associated with Beryl, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?rainqpf SURF: Swells generated by Beryl are expected to reach the Windward and southern Leeward Islands by late Sunday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Papin

...BERYL FORECAST TO INTENSIFY QUICKLY INTO A MAJOR HURRICANE... ...EXPECTED TO BRING LIFE-THREATENING WINDS AND STORM SURGE TO THE WINDWARD ISLANDS STARTING TOMORROW NIGHT... As of 8:00 PM AST Sat Jun 29 the center of Beryl was located near 10.2, -50.3 with movement W at 22 mph. The minimum central pressure was 990 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 80 mph.

000
ABNT20 KNHC 292332
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Sat Jun 29 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently
upgraded Hurricane Beryl, located several hundred miles east of the
Windward Islands.

Southwestern Gulf of Mexico (AL94):
A broad area of low pressure is forecast to form over the Bay of
Campeche tonight or early Sunday, where conditions appear generally
conducive for further development. A tropical depression could form
before the system moves inland again early next week over Mexico.
Interests along the Gulf coast of Mexico should monitor the progress
of this system. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall
associated with the area of low pressure will continue affect
portions of Central America and Mexico through early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
An area of low pressure located several hundred miles southwest of
the Cabo Verde Islands is producing an area of disorganized showers
and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear conducive for
additional development of this system, and a tropical depression is
likely to form by the middle of next week while it moves generally
westward at 15 to 20 mph across the eastern and central tropical
Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

$$
Forecaster Kelly

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 29 Jun 2024 20:38:25 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 29 Jun 2024 21:23:04 GMT

Issued at 2100 UTC SAT JUN 29 2024 000 FONT12 KNHC 292035 PWSAT2 HURRICANE BERYL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022024 2100 UTC SAT JUN 29 2024 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BERYL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 10.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 49.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 65 KTS...75 MPH...120 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT MARATHON FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) KEY WEST FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) MERIDA MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) COZUMEL MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) COZUMEL MX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) COZUMEL MX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) BELIZE CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) PUERTO BARRIOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) GUANAJA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) GUANAJA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) GUANAJA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) PUERTO CABEZAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) SAN ANDRES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) PT GALLINAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 6(12) 1(13) PT GALLINAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) PT GALLINAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) CURACAO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 2(15) X(15) CURACAO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) CURACAO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) GREAT EXUMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) MAYAGUANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) GRAND TURK 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) CP SAN ANTONIO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) CP SAN ANTONIO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) HAVANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) ISLE OF PINES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 16(18) ISLE OF PINES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) ISLE OF PINES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) CIENFUEGOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 11(15) CIENFUEGOS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) CAMAGUEY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 3( 8) GUANTANAMO BAY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 2(15) GUANTANAMO BAY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) GRAND CAYMAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 30(38) GRAND CAYMAN 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 14(16) GRAND CAYMAN 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) MONTEGO BAY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 35(35) 16(51) MONTEGO BAY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 10(23) MONTEGO BAY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) KINGSTON 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 46(46) 10(56) KINGSTON 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 21(21) 7(28) KINGSTON 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 3(12) LES CAYES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 28(29) 1(30) LES CAYES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 1(12) LES CAYES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) PORT-AU-PRINCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 27(36) 1(37) PORT-AU-PRINCE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) X(13) PORT-AU-PRINCE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) CAPE BEATA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 23(23) 27(50) X(50) CAPE BEATA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 17(23) X(23) CAPE BEATA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 10(13) X(13) PUERTO PLATA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 10(15) X(15) SANTO DOMINGO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 19(19) 9(28) X(28) SANTO DOMINGO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) SANTO DOMINGO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) PONCE PR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 19(19) 1(20) X(20) PONCE PR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) PONCE PR 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) AGUADILLA PR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 1(16) X(16) SAN JUAN PR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) VIEQUES PR 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 1(13) X(13) SAINT THOMAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) X(10) X(10) SAINT CROIX 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 12(14) X(14) X(14) SAINT MAARTEN 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) X( 6) SABA 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) X( 9) X( 9) ST EUSTATIUS 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) X( 9) X( 9) ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 6(10) X(10) X(10) BARBUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ANTIGUA 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) GUADELOUPE 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 5(14) X(14) X(14) AVES 34 X X( X) X( X) 11(11) 31(42) X(42) X(42) AVES 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) X(12) X(12) AVES 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) X( 6) DOMINICA 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 21(24) 5(29) X(29) X(29) DOMINICA 50 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) DOMINICA 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) MARTINIQUE 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 22(24) 2(26) X(26) X(26) MARTINIQUE 50 X X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) MARTINIQUE 64 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) SAINT LUCIA 34 X X( X) 7( 7) 63(70) 2(72) X(72) X(72) SAINT LUCIA 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 36(37) 1(38) X(38) X(38) SAINT LUCIA 64 X X( X) X( X) 18(18) 1(19) X(19) X(19) SAINT VINCENT 34 X X( X) 7( 7) 78(85) 1(86) X(86) X(86) SAINT VINCENT 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 58(59) 3(62) X(62) X(62) SAINT VINCENT 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 38(39) 2(41) X(41) X(41) BARBADOS 34 X 1( 1) 45(46) 33(79) X(79) X(79) X(79) BARBADOS 50 X X( X) 14(14) 30(44) X(44) X(44) X(44) BARBADOS 64 X X( X) 5( 5) 20(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) GRENADA 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 55(59) 3(62) X(62) X(62) GRENADA 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 36(37) 1(38) X(38) X(38) GRENADA 64 X X( X) X( X) 21(21) 2(23) X(23) X(23) TRINIDADTOBAGO 34 X X( X) 8( 8) 30(38) X(38) X(38) X(38) TRINIDADTOBAGO 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 16(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) TRINIDADTOBAGO 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) PORT OF SPAIN 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) PORT OF SPAIN 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) JUANGRIEGO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 7(14) 1(15) X(15) JUANGRIEGO 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) JUANGRIEGO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

Issued at 500 PM AST Sat Jun 29 2024 000 WTNT32 KNHC 292034 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Hurricane Beryl Advisory Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024 500 PM AST Sat Jun 29 2024 ...BERYL IS NOW A HURRICANE AND FORECAST TO INTENSIFY QUICKLY... ...EXPECTED TO BRING LIFE-THREATENING WINDS AND STORM SURGE TO THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AS A MAJOR HURRICANE... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...10.1N 49.3W ABOUT 720 MI...1160 KM ESE OF BARBADOS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Barbados has issued a Hurricane Warning for the island. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Barbados A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * St Lucia * St. Vincent and the Grenadine Islands * Grenada A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Martinique * Dominica * Tobago A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in the Lesser Antilles should closely monitor the progress of Beryl. Additional watches and warnings will likely be required for portions of this area this evening. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Beryl was located near latitude 10.1 North, longitude 49.3 West. Beryl is moving toward the west near 22 mph (35 km/h). A relatively quick westward to west-northwestward motion is expected during the next few days. On the forecast track, the center of Beryl is expected to move across the Windward Islands late Sunday night and Monday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Continued steady to rapid strengthening is forecast, and Beryl is expected to become a dangerous major hurricane before it reaches the Windward Islands. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 10 miles (20 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb (29.30 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Beryl can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning area beginning Sunday night. Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane watch areas Sunday night or Monday morning. Devastating wind damage is expected where the eyewall of Beryl moves through portions of the Windward Islands. Wind speeds atop and on the windward sides of hills and mountains are often up to 30 percent stronger than the near-surface winds indicated in this advisory, and in some elevated locations could be even greater. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the tropical storm watch areas by Monday morning. STORM SURGE: A life-threatening storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 5 to 7 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore flow near where Beryl makes landfall in the hurricane warning and watch areas. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. RAINFALL: Beryl is expected to produce rainfall totals of 3 to 6 inches across Barbados and the Windward Islands Sunday night into Monday. This rainfall may cause flooding in vulnerable areas. Showers and thunderstorms well north of Beryl may produce 1 to 4 inches of rain over portions of southeastern Puerto Rico Monday night into Tuesday. Rainfall from Beryl may impact portions of southern Hispaniola Tuesday into Wednesday, with 2 to 6 inches of rain possible. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding associated with Beryl, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?rainqpf SURF: Swells generated by Beryl are expected to reach the Windward and southern Leeward Islands by late Sunday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM AST. Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

...BERYL IS NOW A HURRICANE AND FORECAST TO INTENSIFY QUICKLY... ...EXPECTED TO BRING LIFE-THREATENING WINDS AND STORM SURGE TO THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AS A MAJOR HURRICANE... As of 5:00 PM AST Sat Jun 29 the center of Beryl was located near 10.1, -49.3 with movement W at 22 mph. The minimum central pressure was 992 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 75 mph.

Issued at 2100 UTC SAT JUN 29 2024 000 WTNT22 KNHC 292033 TCMAT2 HURRICANE BERYL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022024 2100 UTC SAT JUN 29 2024 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.1N 49.3W AT 29/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 19 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 992 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 64 KT....... 10NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 50NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 15SE 15SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.1N 49.3W AT 29/2100Z AT 29/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 10.0N 48.5W FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 10.6N 51.9W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 30NE 10SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 11.3N 55.3W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 12.0N 58.7W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 60SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 13.1N 62.3W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 40SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 14.3N 66.0W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 40SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 15.5N 69.8W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 40SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 03/1800Z 17.3N 77.2W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 40SW 90NW. OUTLOOK VALID 04/1800Z 18.7N 83.3W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 60SE 30SW 70NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 10.1N 49.3W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 30/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/0300Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 29 Jun 2024 17:47:05 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 29 Jun 2024 15:22:58 GMT

Issued at 200 PM AST Sat Jun 29 2024 000 WTNT32 KNHC 291746 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Beryl Intermediate Advisory Number 4A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024 200 PM AST Sat Jun 29 2024 ...BERYL EXPECTED TO BECOME A DANGEROUS MAJOR HURRICANE BEFORE REACHING THE WINDWARD ISLANDS... SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...10.0N 48.4W ABOUT 785 MI...1260 KM ESE OF BARBADOS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Dominica has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for the island. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Barbados * St Lucia * St. Vincent and the Grenadine Islands * Grenada A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Martinique * Dominica * Tobago Interests elsewhere in the Lesser Antilles should closely monitor the progress of Beryl. Additional watches and warnings will likely be required for portions of this area this evening. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Beryl was located near latitude 10.0 North, longitude 48.4 West. Beryl is moving toward the west near 23 mph (37 km/h). A relatively quick westward to west-northwestward motion is expected during the next few days. On the forecast track, the system is expected to move across the Windward Islands late Sunday night and Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Rapid strengthening is forecast, and Beryl is expected to become a major hurricane before it reaches the Windward Islands. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Storm Beryl can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC. WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane watch areas Sunday night or Monday morning, with tropical storm conditions possible by late Sunday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the tropical storm watch areas by Monday morning. STORM SURGE: A life-threatening storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 5 to 7 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore flow in the hurricane watch areas. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Beryl is expected to produce rainfall totals of 3 to 6 inches across Barbados and the Windward Islands Sunday night into Monday. This rainfall may cause flooding in vulnerable areas. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding associated with Tropical Storm Beryl, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?rainqpf SURF: Swells generated by the storm are expected to reach the Windward and southern Leeward Islands by late Sunday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

...BERYL EXPECTED TO BECOME A DANGEROUS MAJOR HURRICANE BEFORE REACHING THE WINDWARD ISLANDS... As of 2:00 PM AST Sat Jun 29 the center of Beryl was located near 10.0, -48.4 with movement W at 23 mph. The minimum central pressure was 998 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.

000
ABNT20 KNHC 291726
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Sat Jun 29 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on
Tropical Storm Beryl, located over the central tropical Atlantic
Ocean.

Northwestern Caribbean/Southwestern Gulf of Mexico (AL94):
A broad area of low pressure is forecast to form over the Bay of
Campeche tonight or early Sunday, where conditions appear generally
conducive for further development. A tropical depression could
form before the system moves inland again early next week over
Mexico. Interests along the Gulf coast of Mexico should monitor
the progress of this system. Regardless of development, heavy
rainfall associated with the area of low pressure will affect
portions of Central America and Mexico through early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
An area of low pressure located several hundred miles southwest of
the Cabo Verde Islands is producing an area of disorganized showers
and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear conducive for
additional development of this system, and a tropical depression
could form by the middle of next week while it moves generally
westward at 15 to 20 mph across the eastern and central tropical
Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

&&
Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Beryl are issued under WMO
header WTNT32 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT2.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Beryl are issued under WMO
header WTNT22 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT2.

$$
Forecaster Roberts

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 29 Jun 2024 14:49:16 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 29 Jun 2024 15:22:58 GMT

Issued at 1100 AM AST Sat Jun 29 2024 504 WTNT42 KNHC 291447 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Beryl Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024 1100 AM AST Sat Jun 29 2024 Satellite images indicate that Beryl has been strengthening at a quick pace. The storm is now more symmetric with the low-level center located beneath an expanding central dense overcast feature. Showers and thunderstorms are also organized in curved bands on the west side of the circulation. The initial intensity is increased to 55 kt, in agreement with the Dvorak estimate from TAFB, and Beryl is nearing hurricane strength. Beryl has been wobbling around, but the general motion has been westward at a fast 20 kt. A strong subtropical ridge should keep the storm moving generally westward at only a slightly slower forward speed for the next few days. This motion should take Beryl across the Windward Islands late Sunday night and Monday, and then across the eastern and central Caribbean Sea early next week. By the middle of next week, the cyclone might gain a little more latitude as it feels some influence from a weakness in the ridge, before another ridge builds to its northwest. The NHC track forecast has been nudged southward based on the trends in the latest model runs. The storm has been on a steady strengthening trend since it formed yesterday, and now that its structure is more symmetric and compact, it likely will have an opportunity to rapidly intensify given the low wind shear conditions. The new NHC intensity forecast explicitly calls for rapid strengthening and shows Beryl becoming a major hurricane before moving across the Windward Islands. The environment becomes a little less conducive after Beryl moves into the Caribbean Sea, and some increase in shear will likely end its strengthening phase and cause slow weakening toward the end of the period. This forecast shows more aggressive strengthening in the short term and a slightly higher peak intensity than the previous one, and is near the middle of the guidance envelope. Key Messages: 1. Beryl is expected to rapidly strengthen and be a major hurricane when it reaches the Windward Islands late Sunday night or Monday, bringing destructive hurricane-force winds and life-threatening storm surge. A Hurricane Watch is in effect for much of the Windward Islands. 2. Heavy rainfall and localized flooding is expected across the Windward Islands Sunday night and Monday. 3. Interests in the central and western Caribbean should monitor the progress of this system. Users are reminded that there is large uncertainty at days 4 and 5 and to not focus on the specific details of the track or intensity forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/1500Z 10.0N 47.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 30/0000Z 10.4N 50.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 30/1200Z 11.1N 53.8W 85 KT 100 MPH 36H 01/0000Z 11.8N 57.3W 95 KT 110 MPH 48H 01/1200Z 12.6N 60.8W 100 KT 115 MPH 60H 02/0000Z 13.7N 64.3W 100 KT 115 MPH 72H 02/1200Z 14.9N 68.3W 100 KT 115 MPH 96H 03/1200Z 17.0N 75.5W 90 KT 105 MPH 120H 04/1200Z 18.7N 81.4W 80 KT 90 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

Issued at 1500 UTC SAT JUN 29 2024 478 FONT12 KNHC 291446 PWSAT2 TROPICAL STORM BERYL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022024 1500 UTC SAT JUN 29 2024 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BERYL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 10.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 47.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT MARATHON FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) KEY WEST FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) COZUMEL MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) COZUMEL MX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) BELIZE CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) GUANAJA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) GUANAJA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) GUANAJA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) SAN ANDRES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) PT GALLINAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 10(13) 1(14) PT GALLINAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) PT GALLINAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) CURACAO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 5(18) 1(19) CURACAO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) CURACAO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) ANDROS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) GREAT EXUMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) MAYAGUANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) GRAND TURK 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) CP SAN ANTONIO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) CP SAN ANTONIO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) HAVANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) ISLE OF PINES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 16(17) ISLE OF PINES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) ISLE OF PINES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) CIENFUEGOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 13(15) CIENFUEGOS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) CIENFUEGOS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) CAMAGUEY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) GUANTANAMO BAY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 4(14) GUANTANAMO BAY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) GRAND CAYMAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 31(33) GRAND CAYMAN 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) GRAND CAYMAN 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) MONTEGO BAY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 21(21) 27(48) MONTEGO BAY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 14(21) MONTEGO BAY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) KINGSTON 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 31(31) 21(52) KINGSTON 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 14(26) KINGSTON 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 7(12) LES CAYES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 26(26) 3(29) LES CAYES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 2(11) LES CAYES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) PORT-AU-PRINCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 32(33) 2(35) PORT-AU-PRINCE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) X(12) PORT-AU-PRINCE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) CAPE BEATA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 39(46) 1(47) CAPE BEATA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 18(19) 1(20) CAPE BEATA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) X(10) PUERTO PLATA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) 1(14) SANTO DOMINGO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 17(26) X(26) SANTO DOMINGO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7) SANTO DOMINGO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) PONCE PR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) 3(19) X(19) PONCE PR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) PONCE PR 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) AGUADILLA PR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 4(17) X(17) SAN JUAN PR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) VIEQUES PR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 1(13) X(13) SAINT THOMAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) X( 9) X( 9) SAINT CROIX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 1(14) X(14) SAINT MAARTEN 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7) X( 7) SABA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) X(10) X(10) ST EUSTATIUS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) X(10) X(10) ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) X(10) X(10) BARBUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) X( 7) X( 7) ANTIGUA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) GUADELOUPE 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 9(14) X(14) X(14) AVES 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 37(41) X(41) X(41) AVES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) X(12) X(12) AVES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) DOMINICA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) 15(28) X(28) X(28) DOMINICA 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) X( 7) X( 7) DOMINICA 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) MARTINIQUE 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) 9(24) X(24) X(24) MARTINIQUE 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9) X( 9) X( 9) MARTINIQUE 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) SAINT LUCIA 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 52(55) 15(70) X(70) X(70) SAINT LUCIA 50 X X( X) X( X) 22(22) 14(36) X(36) X(36) SAINT LUCIA 64 X X( X) X( X) 10(10) 8(18) X(18) X(18) SAINT VINCENT 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 62(65) 18(83) X(83) X(83) SAINT VINCENT 50 X X( X) X( X) 37(37) 20(57) X(57) X(57) SAINT VINCENT 64 X X( X) X( X) 20(20) 17(37) X(37) X(37) BARBADOS 34 X X( X) 10(10) 68(78) 1(79) X(79) X(79) BARBADOS 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 42(44) 1(45) X(45) X(45) BARBADOS 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 24(25) 1(26) X(26) X(26) GRENADA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 39(41) 18(59) X(59) X(59) GRENADA 50 X X( X) X( X) 20(20) 19(39) X(39) X(39) GRENADA 64 X X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 14(22) X(22) X(22) TRINIDADTOBAGO 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 31(34) 4(38) X(38) X(38) TRINIDADTOBAGO 50 X X( X) X( X) 18(18) 4(22) X(22) X(22) TRINIDADTOBAGO 64 X X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 4(13) X(13) X(13) PORT OF SPAIN 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 4(12) X(12) X(12) PORT OF SPAIN 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) PORT OF SPAIN 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) JUANGRIEGO 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 12(15) X(15) 1(16) JUANGRIEGO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) JUANGRIEGO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

Issued at 1100 AM AST Sat Jun 29 2024 125 WTNT32 KNHC 291446 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Beryl Advisory Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024 1100 AM AST Sat Jun 29 2024 ...BERYL EXPECTED TO BECOME A DANGEROUS MAJOR HURRICANE BEFORE REACHING THE WINDWARD ISLANDS... ...HURRICANE WATCHES ISSUED... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...10.0N 47.8W ABOUT 820 MI...1320 KM ESE OF BARBADOS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of France has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for Martinique. The government of St. Lucia has issued a Hurricane Watch for the island. The government of Barbados has issued a Hurricane Watch for St. Vincent and the Grenadine Islands. The government of Trinidad and Tobago has issued a Hurricane Watch for Grenada and a Tropical Storm Watch for Tobago. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Barbados * St Lucia * St. Vincent and the Grenadine Islands * Grenada A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Martinique * Tobago Interests elsewhere in the Lesser Antilles should closely monitor the progress of Beryl. Additional watches and warnings will likely be required for portions of this area later today. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Beryl was located near latitude 10.0 North, longitude 47.8 West. Beryl is moving toward the west near 23 mph (37 km/h). A relatively quick westward to west-northwestward motion is expected during the next few days. On the forecast track, the system is expected to move across the Windward Islands late Sunday night and Monday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Rapid strengthening is now forecast, and Beryl is expected to become a major hurricane before it reaches the Windward Islands. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Storm Beryl can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC. WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane watch areas Sunday night or Monday morning, with tropical storm conditions possible by late Sunday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the tropical storm watch areas by Monday morning. STORM SURGE: A life-threatening storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 5 to 7 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore flow in the hurricane watch areas. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Beryl is expected to produce rainfall totals of 3 to 6 inches across Barbados and the Windward Islands Sunday night into Monday. This rainfall may cause flooding in vulnerable areas. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding associated with Tropical Storm Beryl, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?rainqpf SURF: Swells generated by the storm are expected to reach the Windward and southern Leeward Islands by late Sunday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM AST. Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

...BERYL EXPECTED TO BECOME A DANGEROUS MAJOR HURRICANE BEFORE REACHING THE WINDWARD ISLANDS... ...HURRICANE WATCHES ISSUED... As of 11:00 AM AST Sat Jun 29 the center of Beryl was located near 10.0, -47.8 with movement W at 23 mph. The minimum central pressure was 998 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.

Issued at 1500 UTC SAT JUN 29 2024 192 WTNT22 KNHC 291445 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM BERYL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022024 1500 UTC SAT JUN 29 2024 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.0N 47.8W AT 29/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 20 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 0SE 0SW 75NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.0N 47.8W AT 29/1500Z AT 29/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 9.8N 46.9W FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 10.4N 50.5W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 10SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 11.1N 53.8W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 30NE 10SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 11.8N 57.3W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 40NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 80NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 12.6N 60.8W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 13.7N 64.3W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 40SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 14.9N 68.3W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 40SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 03/1200Z 17.0N 75.5W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 40SW 90NW. OUTLOOK VALID 04/1200Z 18.7N 81.4W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 60SE 30SW 70NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 10.0N 47.8W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 29/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/2100Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

Issued at 800 AM AST Sat Jun 29 2024 000 WTNT32 KNHC 291232 CCA TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Beryl Intermediate Advisory Number 3A...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024 800 AM AST Sat Jun 29 2024 Corrected distance from Barbados ...BERYL STRENGTHENING... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE BEFORE IT REACHES THE WINDWARD ISLANDS... SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...9.8N 46.8W ABOUT 890 MI...1435 KM ESE OF BARBADOS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Barbados Interests elsewhere in the Lesser Antilles should closely monitor the progress of Beryl. Additional watches and warnings will likely be required for portions of this area later this morning. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM AST (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Beryl was located near latitude 9.8 North, longitude 46.8 West. Beryl is moving toward the west near 21 mph (33 km/h). A relatively quick westward to west-northwestward motion is expected during the next few days. On the forecast track, the system is expected to move across the Windward Islands late Sunday night and Monday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Steady to rapid strengthening is expected during the next couple of days, and Beryl is forecast to become a hurricane tonight or early Sunday with additional strengthening expected after that. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Storm Beryl can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC. WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane watch area by Sunday night or Monday morning, with tropical storm conditions possible on Sunday. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore flow in the Hurricane Watch area. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Beryl is expected to produce rainfall totals of 3 to 6 inches across Barbados and the Windward Islands. This rainfall may produce localized flooding in vulnerable areas. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding associated with Tropical Storm Beryl, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?ero SURF: Swells generated by the storm are expected to reach the Windward and southern Leeward Islands by late Sunday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi