Severe Storms

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1253 AM CDT Wed Sep 03 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN TENNESSEE NORTHWARD INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong thunderstorms may impact a corridor from east Tennessee northward to the US-Canadian border across northern New York on Thursday, accompanied by a risk for potentially damaging wind gusts. ... Synopsis ... A highly amplified midlevel pattern will continue through Thursday/Day-2 as a large ridge pushes north through western Canada and a downstream trough persists across much of the eastern United States. Within this amplified pattern, a seasonably cold midlevel low will exist across Ontario, with multiple lobes of vorticity rotating around the low. One such vorticity lobe/shortwave trough will move east across the Great Lakes bringing with it increasing ascent across portions of the eastern US. At the surface, a cold front associated with the midlevel shortwave trough will stretch through the Plains east-northeast into the lower Great Lakes at the start of the forecast period. This cold front will make slow progress southward across the Plains and faster progress east across the eastern Great Lakes region. ... East Tennessee northward into Upstate New York ... Seasonable moisture will be in place across the region ahead of the advancing surface cold front. Diurnal heating of this airmass should result in pockets of most-unstable CAPE up to 1500 J/kg to develop by early afternoon across southern portions of the region to perhaps 750 J/kg across northern portions of the area. Thunderstorms, or their remnants, ongoing across portions of eastern Ohio and western Pennsylvania at the start of the period, should weaken/dissipate through the morning as they move east. These showers/storms or their outflow may provide potential foci for thunderstorm development/intensification during the afternoon. To the west, increasing large scale ascent associated with the shortwave trough and low-level convergence along the surface cold front should support additional bands of thunderstorms. The best thermodynamics will reside across Tennessee and adjacent areas, with the best deep-layer shear displaced to the north across northern Pennsylvania and New York. However, the joint distribution of forecast profiles of shear and buoyancy should favor thunderstorm organization into small multicell clusters or small linear segments, with the strongest of these capable of some damaging wind potential. ..Marsh.. 09/03/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1236 AM CDT Wed Sep 03 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms with potential for large to very large hail and severe wind gusts are expected this afternoon and evening across parts of the central Plains and lower Missouri Valley. ...Central Plains/Lower Missouri Valley... At mid-levels, heights will fall over much of the central U.S., as a low moves southward toward the western Great Lakes and as a shortwave trough moves through the Upper Midwest. At the surface, a cold front will advance southward across the central Plains and lower Missouri Valley. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints in the 60s F will contribute to a pocket of moderate instability by afternoon. Warming surface temperatures and increasing low-level convergence near the front will support scattered thunderstorm development along the northern edge of the stronger instability this afternoon. These storms will become organized and move south-southeastward across central and eastern Kansas, and western Missouri during the late afternoon and early to mid evening. RAP forecast soundings near the instability axis across east-central Kansas late this afternoon have MLCAPE peaking in the 2000 to 2500 J/kg range, with steep lapse rates in the low to mid-levels. 0-6 km shear is forecast to be near 45 knots, due to a combination of speed shear and directional shear from the surface to about 600 mb. This environment will support large hail with supercells. Moderate deep-layer shear and mid-level lapse rates near 7.5 C/km will support a potential for hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter with the more intense updrafts. Isolated severe wind gusts will also be possible with supercells, or with bowing line segments that develop out of merging cells. The severe threat is expected to persist into the mid evening, as several small clusters move southeastward into southeast Kansas and southwest Missouri. ..Broyles/Thornton.. 09/03/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1236 AM CDT Wed Sep 03 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms with potential for large to very large hail and severe wind gusts are expected this afternoon and evening across parts of the central Plains and lower Missouri Valley. ...Central Plains/Lower Missouri Valley... At mid-levels, heights will fall over much of the central U.S., as a low moves southward toward the western Great Lakes and as a shortwave trough moves through the Upper Midwest. At the surface, a cold front will advance southward across the central Plains and lower Missouri Valley. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints in the 60s F will contribute to a pocket of moderate instability by afternoon. Warming surface temperatures and increasing low-level convergence near the front will support scattered thunderstorm development along the northern edge of the stronger instability this afternoon. These storms will become organized and move south-southeastward across central and eastern Kansas, and western Missouri during the late afternoon and early to mid evening. RAP forecast soundings near the instability axis across east-central Kansas late this afternoon have MLCAPE peaking in the 2000 to 2500 J/kg range, with steep lapse rates in the low to mid-levels. 0-6 km shear is forecast to be near 45 knots, due to a combination of speed shear and directional shear from the surface to about 600 mb. This environment will support large hail with supercells. Moderate deep-layer shear and mid-level lapse rates near 7.5 C/km will support a potential for hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter with the more intense updrafts. Isolated severe wind gusts will also be possible with supercells, or with bowing line segments that develop out of merging cells. The severe threat is expected to persist into the mid evening, as several small clusters move southeastward into southeast Kansas and southwest Missouri. ..Broyles/Thornton.. 09/03/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1236 AM CDT Wed Sep 03 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms with potential for large to very large hail and severe wind gusts are expected this afternoon and evening across parts of the central Plains and lower Missouri Valley. ...Central Plains/Lower Missouri Valley... At mid-levels, heights will fall over much of the central U.S., as a low moves southward toward the western Great Lakes and as a shortwave trough moves through the Upper Midwest. At the surface, a cold front will advance southward across the central Plains and lower Missouri Valley. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints in the 60s F will contribute to a pocket of moderate instability by afternoon. Warming surface temperatures and increasing low-level convergence near the front will support scattered thunderstorm development along the northern edge of the stronger instability this afternoon. These storms will become organized and move south-southeastward across central and eastern Kansas, and western Missouri during the late afternoon and early to mid evening. RAP forecast soundings near the instability axis across east-central Kansas late this afternoon have MLCAPE peaking in the 2000 to 2500 J/kg range, with steep lapse rates in the low to mid-levels. 0-6 km shear is forecast to be near 45 knots, due to a combination of speed shear and directional shear from the surface to about 600 mb. This environment will support large hail with supercells. Moderate deep-layer shear and mid-level lapse rates near 7.5 C/km will support a potential for hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter with the more intense updrafts. Isolated severe wind gusts will also be possible with supercells, or with bowing line segments that develop out of merging cells. The severe threat is expected to persist into the mid evening, as several small clusters move southeastward into southeast Kansas and southwest Missouri. ..Broyles/Thornton.. 09/03/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1236 AM CDT Wed Sep 03 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms with potential for large to very large hail and severe wind gusts are expected this afternoon and evening across parts of the central Plains and lower Missouri Valley. ...Central Plains/Lower Missouri Valley... At mid-levels, heights will fall over much of the central U.S., as a low moves southward toward the western Great Lakes and as a shortwave trough moves through the Upper Midwest. At the surface, a cold front will advance southward across the central Plains and lower Missouri Valley. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints in the 60s F will contribute to a pocket of moderate instability by afternoon. Warming surface temperatures and increasing low-level convergence near the front will support scattered thunderstorm development along the northern edge of the stronger instability this afternoon. These storms will become organized and move south-southeastward across central and eastern Kansas, and western Missouri during the late afternoon and early to mid evening. RAP forecast soundings near the instability axis across east-central Kansas late this afternoon have MLCAPE peaking in the 2000 to 2500 J/kg range, with steep lapse rates in the low to mid-levels. 0-6 km shear is forecast to be near 45 knots, due to a combination of speed shear and directional shear from the surface to about 600 mb. This environment will support large hail with supercells. Moderate deep-layer shear and mid-level lapse rates near 7.5 C/km will support a potential for hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter with the more intense updrafts. Isolated severe wind gusts will also be possible with supercells, or with bowing line segments that develop out of merging cells. The severe threat is expected to persist into the mid evening, as several small clusters move southeastward into southeast Kansas and southwest Missouri. ..Broyles/Thornton.. 09/03/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1236 AM CDT Wed Sep 03 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms with potential for large to very large hail and severe wind gusts are expected this afternoon and evening across parts of the central Plains and lower Missouri Valley. ...Central Plains/Lower Missouri Valley... At mid-levels, heights will fall over much of the central U.S., as a low moves southward toward the western Great Lakes and as a shortwave trough moves through the Upper Midwest. At the surface, a cold front will advance southward across the central Plains and lower Missouri Valley. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints in the 60s F will contribute to a pocket of moderate instability by afternoon. Warming surface temperatures and increasing low-level convergence near the front will support scattered thunderstorm development along the northern edge of the stronger instability this afternoon. These storms will become organized and move south-southeastward across central and eastern Kansas, and western Missouri during the late afternoon and early to mid evening. RAP forecast soundings near the instability axis across east-central Kansas late this afternoon have MLCAPE peaking in the 2000 to 2500 J/kg range, with steep lapse rates in the low to mid-levels. 0-6 km shear is forecast to be near 45 knots, due to a combination of speed shear and directional shear from the surface to about 600 mb. This environment will support large hail with supercells. Moderate deep-layer shear and mid-level lapse rates near 7.5 C/km will support a potential for hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter with the more intense updrafts. Isolated severe wind gusts will also be possible with supercells, or with bowing line segments that develop out of merging cells. The severe threat is expected to persist into the mid evening, as several small clusters move southeastward into southeast Kansas and southwest Missouri. ..Broyles/Thornton.. 09/03/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1236 AM CDT Wed Sep 03 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms with potential for large to very large hail and severe wind gusts are expected this afternoon and evening across parts of the central Plains and lower Missouri Valley. ...Central Plains/Lower Missouri Valley... At mid-levels, heights will fall over much of the central U.S., as a low moves southward toward the western Great Lakes and as a shortwave trough moves through the Upper Midwest. At the surface, a cold front will advance southward across the central Plains and lower Missouri Valley. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints in the 60s F will contribute to a pocket of moderate instability by afternoon. Warming surface temperatures and increasing low-level convergence near the front will support scattered thunderstorm development along the northern edge of the stronger instability this afternoon. These storms will become organized and move south-southeastward across central and eastern Kansas, and western Missouri during the late afternoon and early to mid evening. RAP forecast soundings near the instability axis across east-central Kansas late this afternoon have MLCAPE peaking in the 2000 to 2500 J/kg range, with steep lapse rates in the low to mid-levels. 0-6 km shear is forecast to be near 45 knots, due to a combination of speed shear and directional shear from the surface to about 600 mb. This environment will support large hail with supercells. Moderate deep-layer shear and mid-level lapse rates near 7.5 C/km will support a potential for hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter with the more intense updrafts. Isolated severe wind gusts will also be possible with supercells, or with bowing line segments that develop out of merging cells. The severe threat is expected to persist into the mid evening, as several small clusters move southeastward into southeast Kansas and southwest Missouri. ..Broyles/Thornton.. 09/03/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0755 PM CDT Tue Sep 02 2025 Valid 030100Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with isolated severe gusts and hail will be possible early this evening across parts of the mid Missouri Valley. ...Mid Missouri Valley... Northwest mid-level flow is evident on water vapor imagery from the Great Plains into the Mississippi Valley. At the surface, a cold front is moving through the north-central U.S. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints are in the mid 60s F, and the RAP has an axis of moderate instability from central Nebraska into western Minnesota. Isolated strong storms are ongoing near this axis of instability. Near the storms, the Sioux Falls WSR-88D VWP has 0-6 km shear near 35 knots, mostly due to speed shear in the mid-levels. This may be enough for an isolated severe threat over the next hour or two in the vicinity of Sioux Falls, South Dakota and Sioux City, Iowa. The primary threats will be marginally severe wind gusts and hail. ..Broyles.. 09/03/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0755 PM CDT Tue Sep 02 2025 Valid 030100Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with isolated severe gusts and hail will be possible early this evening across parts of the mid Missouri Valley. ...Mid Missouri Valley... Northwest mid-level flow is evident on water vapor imagery from the Great Plains into the Mississippi Valley. At the surface, a cold front is moving through the north-central U.S. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints are in the mid 60s F, and the RAP has an axis of moderate instability from central Nebraska into western Minnesota. Isolated strong storms are ongoing near this axis of instability. Near the storms, the Sioux Falls WSR-88D VWP has 0-6 km shear near 35 knots, mostly due to speed shear in the mid-levels. This may be enough for an isolated severe threat over the next hour or two in the vicinity of Sioux Falls, South Dakota and Sioux City, Iowa. The primary threats will be marginally severe wind gusts and hail. ..Broyles.. 09/03/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0755 PM CDT Tue Sep 02 2025 Valid 030100Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with isolated severe gusts and hail will be possible early this evening across parts of the mid Missouri Valley. ...Mid Missouri Valley... Northwest mid-level flow is evident on water vapor imagery from the Great Plains into the Mississippi Valley. At the surface, a cold front is moving through the north-central U.S. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints are in the mid 60s F, and the RAP has an axis of moderate instability from central Nebraska into western Minnesota. Isolated strong storms are ongoing near this axis of instability. Near the storms, the Sioux Falls WSR-88D VWP has 0-6 km shear near 35 knots, mostly due to speed shear in the mid-levels. This may be enough for an isolated severe threat over the next hour or two in the vicinity of Sioux Falls, South Dakota and Sioux City, Iowa. The primary threats will be marginally severe wind gusts and hail. ..Broyles.. 09/03/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0755 PM CDT Tue Sep 02 2025 Valid 030100Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with isolated severe gusts and hail will be possible early this evening across parts of the mid Missouri Valley. ...Mid Missouri Valley... Northwest mid-level flow is evident on water vapor imagery from the Great Plains into the Mississippi Valley. At the surface, a cold front is moving through the north-central U.S. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints are in the mid 60s F, and the RAP has an axis of moderate instability from central Nebraska into western Minnesota. Isolated strong storms are ongoing near this axis of instability. Near the storms, the Sioux Falls WSR-88D VWP has 0-6 km shear near 35 knots, mostly due to speed shear in the mid-levels. This may be enough for an isolated severe threat over the next hour or two in the vicinity of Sioux Falls, South Dakota and Sioux City, Iowa. The primary threats will be marginally severe wind gusts and hail. ..Broyles.. 09/03/2025 Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Tue Sep 2 23:37:01 UTC 2025.

No watches are valid as of Tue Sep 2 23:37:01 UTC 2025.

MD 2027 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR EASTERN SD INTO SOUTHERN/CENTRAL MN AND FAR NORTHWEST WI
Mesoscale Discussion 2027 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0316 PM CDT Tue Sep 02 2025 Areas affected...Eastern SD into southern/central MN and far northwest WI Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 022016Z - 022215Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Isolated severe storms are possible this afternoon into the early evening. Isolated hail and localized damaging wind are expected to be the primary threats. DISCUSSION...Storms have recently developed near a surface boundary east of Aberdeen, with gradually increasing cumulus noted farther southwest into east-central SD, and also farther east into central/northeast MN. Clear skies have allowed for diurnal heating/destabilization across parts of eastern SD, where MLCAPE has increased to near/above 1500 J/kg. Parts of MN are still recovering from earlier convection and cloudiness, but short-term guidance suggests at least a narrow corridor of moderate destabilization may evolve through late afternoon from parts of central/northeast MN into far northwest WI. Additional storm development is expected by late afternoon/early evening, with coverage remaining somewhat uncertain with southwestward extent across SD. Mid/upper-level flow is generally not very strong across the region, but modest northwesterly flow atop low-level south-southwesterlies is supporting effective shear of 20-30 kt. A few stronger multicells and perhaps a transient supercell or two will be possible. Midlevel lapse rates are not particularly steep (generally near 7 C/km), but cooling aloft associated with an approaching mid/upper-level shortwave trough across ND could support isolated hail potential with the strongest storms. Locally damaging winds will also be possible, especially where stronger heating and steepening of low-level lapse rates occurs through the remainder of the afternoon. ..Dean/Gleason.. 09/02/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...FSD...ABR... LAT...LON 43439924 43949969 44659916 45659670 46319532 47159348 46889240 46559196 45969178 45269292 44429424 43599625 43479845 43439924 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0322 PM CDT Tue Sep 02 2025 Valid 041200Z - 101200Z Fire weather potential appears limited across the country for the extended period. Medium to long-range guidance continues to show a gradual amplification of an upper wave over the central CONUS through late week with an unseasonably strong frontal intrusion into the Plains and Midwest. This will result in widespread below-normal temperatures and rain chances, though windy conditions will likely manifest across portions of the northern Plains on D3/Thursday. Across the West, persistent upper ridging will maintain warm and dry conditions across the Great Basin and Pacific Northwest. Weak gradient winds will mitigate most fire weather concerns through the remainder of the week. A gradual breakdown of the upper ridge will likely usher in cooler conditions for parts of the Northwest by early next week along with scattered rain chances. ...D3/Thursday - Northern Plains... Medium-range guidance shows strong consensus in 20-25 mph winds developing within a post-frontal air mass across eastern MT into the western Dakotas on Thursday afternoon. However, an influx of cooler air is expected to modulate RH reductions with most solutions/ensemble guidance suggesting RH values may fall into the 25-35% range. These marginal RH reductions, along with modest fuel dryness, should limit the overall fire weather threat, though a wind-driven concern could materialize if RH trends lower than anticipated and finer fuels can adequately dry. ..Moore.. 09/02/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0322 PM CDT Tue Sep 02 2025 Valid 041200Z - 101200Z Fire weather potential appears limited across the country for the extended period. Medium to long-range guidance continues to show a gradual amplification of an upper wave over the central CONUS through late week with an unseasonably strong frontal intrusion into the Plains and Midwest. This will result in widespread below-normal temperatures and rain chances, though windy conditions will likely manifest across portions of the northern Plains on D3/Thursday. Across the West, persistent upper ridging will maintain warm and dry conditions across the Great Basin and Pacific Northwest. Weak gradient winds will mitigate most fire weather concerns through the remainder of the week. A gradual breakdown of the upper ridge will likely usher in cooler conditions for parts of the Northwest by early next week along with scattered rain chances. ...D3/Thursday - Northern Plains... Medium-range guidance shows strong consensus in 20-25 mph winds developing within a post-frontal air mass across eastern MT into the western Dakotas on Thursday afternoon. However, an influx of cooler air is expected to modulate RH reductions with most solutions/ensemble guidance suggesting RH values may fall into the 25-35% range. These marginal RH reductions, along with modest fuel dryness, should limit the overall fire weather threat, though a wind-driven concern could materialize if RH trends lower than anticipated and finer fuels can adequately dry. ..Moore.. 09/02/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0322 PM CDT Tue Sep 02 2025 Valid 041200Z - 101200Z Fire weather potential appears limited across the country for the extended period. Medium to long-range guidance continues to show a gradual amplification of an upper wave over the central CONUS through late week with an unseasonably strong frontal intrusion into the Plains and Midwest. This will result in widespread below-normal temperatures and rain chances, though windy conditions will likely manifest across portions of the northern Plains on D3/Thursday. Across the West, persistent upper ridging will maintain warm and dry conditions across the Great Basin and Pacific Northwest. Weak gradient winds will mitigate most fire weather concerns through the remainder of the week. A gradual breakdown of the upper ridge will likely usher in cooler conditions for parts of the Northwest by early next week along with scattered rain chances. ...D3/Thursday - Northern Plains... Medium-range guidance shows strong consensus in 20-25 mph winds developing within a post-frontal air mass across eastern MT into the western Dakotas on Thursday afternoon. However, an influx of cooler air is expected to modulate RH reductions with most solutions/ensemble guidance suggesting RH values may fall into the 25-35% range. These marginal RH reductions, along with modest fuel dryness, should limit the overall fire weather threat, though a wind-driven concern could materialize if RH trends lower than anticipated and finer fuels can adequately dry. ..Moore.. 09/02/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0322 PM CDT Tue Sep 02 2025 Valid 041200Z - 101200Z Fire weather potential appears limited across the country for the extended period. Medium to long-range guidance continues to show a gradual amplification of an upper wave over the central CONUS through late week with an unseasonably strong frontal intrusion into the Plains and Midwest. This will result in widespread below-normal temperatures and rain chances, though windy conditions will likely manifest across portions of the northern Plains on D3/Thursday. Across the West, persistent upper ridging will maintain warm and dry conditions across the Great Basin and Pacific Northwest. Weak gradient winds will mitigate most fire weather concerns through the remainder of the week. A gradual breakdown of the upper ridge will likely usher in cooler conditions for parts of the Northwest by early next week along with scattered rain chances. ...D3/Thursday - Northern Plains... Medium-range guidance shows strong consensus in 20-25 mph winds developing within a post-frontal air mass across eastern MT into the western Dakotas on Thursday afternoon. However, an influx of cooler air is expected to modulate RH reductions with most solutions/ensemble guidance suggesting RH values may fall into the 25-35% range. These marginal RH reductions, along with modest fuel dryness, should limit the overall fire weather threat, though a wind-driven concern could materialize if RH trends lower than anticipated and finer fuels can adequately dry. ..Moore.. 09/02/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0322 PM CDT Tue Sep 02 2025 Valid 041200Z - 101200Z Fire weather potential appears limited across the country for the extended period. Medium to long-range guidance continues to show a gradual amplification of an upper wave over the central CONUS through late week with an unseasonably strong frontal intrusion into the Plains and Midwest. This will result in widespread below-normal temperatures and rain chances, though windy conditions will likely manifest across portions of the northern Plains on D3/Thursday. Across the West, persistent upper ridging will maintain warm and dry conditions across the Great Basin and Pacific Northwest. Weak gradient winds will mitigate most fire weather concerns through the remainder of the week. A gradual breakdown of the upper ridge will likely usher in cooler conditions for parts of the Northwest by early next week along with scattered rain chances. ...D3/Thursday - Northern Plains... Medium-range guidance shows strong consensus in 20-25 mph winds developing within a post-frontal air mass across eastern MT into the western Dakotas on Thursday afternoon. However, an influx of cooler air is expected to modulate RH reductions with most solutions/ensemble guidance suggesting RH values may fall into the 25-35% range. These marginal RH reductions, along with modest fuel dryness, should limit the overall fire weather threat, though a wind-driven concern could materialize if RH trends lower than anticipated and finer fuels can adequately dry. ..Moore.. 09/02/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0322 PM CDT Tue Sep 02 2025 Valid 041200Z - 101200Z Fire weather potential appears limited across the country for the extended period. Medium to long-range guidance continues to show a gradual amplification of an upper wave over the central CONUS through late week with an unseasonably strong frontal intrusion into the Plains and Midwest. This will result in widespread below-normal temperatures and rain chances, though windy conditions will likely manifest across portions of the northern Plains on D3/Thursday. Across the West, persistent upper ridging will maintain warm and dry conditions across the Great Basin and Pacific Northwest. Weak gradient winds will mitigate most fire weather concerns through the remainder of the week. A gradual breakdown of the upper ridge will likely usher in cooler conditions for parts of the Northwest by early next week along with scattered rain chances. ...D3/Thursday - Northern Plains... Medium-range guidance shows strong consensus in 20-25 mph winds developing within a post-frontal air mass across eastern MT into the western Dakotas on Thursday afternoon. However, an influx of cooler air is expected to modulate RH reductions with most solutions/ensemble guidance suggesting RH values may fall into the 25-35% range. These marginal RH reductions, along with modest fuel dryness, should limit the overall fire weather threat, though a wind-driven concern could materialize if RH trends lower than anticipated and finer fuels can adequately dry. ..Moore.. 09/02/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more