Severe Storms

WW 492 SEVERE TSTM CO KS NE WY 071950Z - 080300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 492 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 150 PM MDT Mon Jul 7 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Northeast Colorado Northwest Kansas Southwest Nebraska Southeast Wyoming * Effective this Monday afternoon and evening from 150 PM until 900 PM MDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75 mph likely Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will increase over northeast Colorado and southeast Wyoming, spreading eastward across the watch area through the early evening. Damaging wind gusts and hail will be possible in the strongest storms. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 90 statute miles east and west of a line from 55 miles north northwest of Sidney NE to 55 miles south southwest of Burlington CO. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 28030. ...Hart Read more

WW 0494 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 494 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ESE JMS TO 40 NE DVL TO 45 WNW HCO. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1596 ..THOMPSON..07/07/25 ATTN...WFO...FGF... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 494 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MNC005-027-069-087-089-107-113-119-125-072340- MN . MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BECKER CLAY KITTSON MAHNOMEN MARSHALL NORMAN PENNINGTON POLK RED LAKE NDC003-017-035-039-063-067-091-097-099-072340- ND . NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARNES CASS GRAND FORKS GRIGGS NELSON PEMBINA STEELE TRAILL WALSH THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0500 PM CDT Mon Jul 07 2025 Valid 091200Z - 151200Z ...Day 3/Wednesday... Stronger west winds with the arrival of a mid-level short wave trough and attendant cold front are expected across the Columbia Basin where fuels remain dry. Although cooler temperatures and slightly higher humidity arrive with the cold front, sustained west winds of 15-25 mph will continue to support a fire weather threat amid dry fuels across the Columbia Basin. A mid-level short wave trough will translate over a broad ridge situated over the Southwestern U.S. Collocation of ascent ahead of a mid-level jet max and antecedent mid-level moisture should support isolated thunderstorms with limited rainfall across southeastern OR/southwestern ID on Day 3/Wednesday. The accelerated mid-level flow on the southern periphery of the aforementioned short wave along with a deep/well-mixed boundary layer will promote elevated west-southwest winds across much of the Great Basin and portions of southern Idaho. The breezy and very dry conditions support at least a 40% probability for critical fire weather conditions across the region amid an expected dry fuelscape. ...Day 4/Thursday... The mid-level short wave edges eastward into the Southern Rockies bringing elevated west winds to the Intermountain West and great Four Corners region Day 4/Thursday. A 40% probability for critical fire weather was introduced into southern UT and northern AZ where fuels will go under several days of drying through midweek, becoming more receptive to wildfire spread. ...Day 5-8/Friday-Monday... Building heat is expected across much of the Western U.S. through the weekend under an expanding mid-level ridge over southern CA which will promote a limited wind threat across the region. Monsoon moisture and associated thunderstorms will remain confined to southern AZ and NM through the weekend. ..Williams.. 07/07/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0500 PM CDT Mon Jul 07 2025 Valid 091200Z - 151200Z ...Day 3/Wednesday... Stronger west winds with the arrival of a mid-level short wave trough and attendant cold front are expected across the Columbia Basin where fuels remain dry. Although cooler temperatures and slightly higher humidity arrive with the cold front, sustained west winds of 15-25 mph will continue to support a fire weather threat amid dry fuels across the Columbia Basin. A mid-level short wave trough will translate over a broad ridge situated over the Southwestern U.S. Collocation of ascent ahead of a mid-level jet max and antecedent mid-level moisture should support isolated thunderstorms with limited rainfall across southeastern OR/southwestern ID on Day 3/Wednesday. The accelerated mid-level flow on the southern periphery of the aforementioned short wave along with a deep/well-mixed boundary layer will promote elevated west-southwest winds across much of the Great Basin and portions of southern Idaho. The breezy and very dry conditions support at least a 40% probability for critical fire weather conditions across the region amid an expected dry fuelscape. ...Day 4/Thursday... The mid-level short wave edges eastward into the Southern Rockies bringing elevated west winds to the Intermountain West and great Four Corners region Day 4/Thursday. A 40% probability for critical fire weather was introduced into southern UT and northern AZ where fuels will go under several days of drying through midweek, becoming more receptive to wildfire spread. ...Day 5-8/Friday-Monday... Building heat is expected across much of the Western U.S. through the weekend under an expanding mid-level ridge over southern CA which will promote a limited wind threat across the region. Monsoon moisture and associated thunderstorms will remain confined to southern AZ and NM through the weekend. ..Williams.. 07/07/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0500 PM CDT Mon Jul 07 2025 Valid 091200Z - 151200Z ...Day 3/Wednesday... Stronger west winds with the arrival of a mid-level short wave trough and attendant cold front are expected across the Columbia Basin where fuels remain dry. Although cooler temperatures and slightly higher humidity arrive with the cold front, sustained west winds of 15-25 mph will continue to support a fire weather threat amid dry fuels across the Columbia Basin. A mid-level short wave trough will translate over a broad ridge situated over the Southwestern U.S. Collocation of ascent ahead of a mid-level jet max and antecedent mid-level moisture should support isolated thunderstorms with limited rainfall across southeastern OR/southwestern ID on Day 3/Wednesday. The accelerated mid-level flow on the southern periphery of the aforementioned short wave along with a deep/well-mixed boundary layer will promote elevated west-southwest winds across much of the Great Basin and portions of southern Idaho. The breezy and very dry conditions support at least a 40% probability for critical fire weather conditions across the region amid an expected dry fuelscape. ...Day 4/Thursday... The mid-level short wave edges eastward into the Southern Rockies bringing elevated west winds to the Intermountain West and great Four Corners region Day 4/Thursday. A 40% probability for critical fire weather was introduced into southern UT and northern AZ where fuels will go under several days of drying through midweek, becoming more receptive to wildfire spread. ...Day 5-8/Friday-Monday... Building heat is expected across much of the Western U.S. through the weekend under an expanding mid-level ridge over southern CA which will promote a limited wind threat across the region. Monsoon moisture and associated thunderstorms will remain confined to southern AZ and NM through the weekend. ..Williams.. 07/07/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0500 PM CDT Mon Jul 07 2025 Valid 091200Z - 151200Z ...Day 3/Wednesday... Stronger west winds with the arrival of a mid-level short wave trough and attendant cold front are expected across the Columbia Basin where fuels remain dry. Although cooler temperatures and slightly higher humidity arrive with the cold front, sustained west winds of 15-25 mph will continue to support a fire weather threat amid dry fuels across the Columbia Basin. A mid-level short wave trough will translate over a broad ridge situated over the Southwestern U.S. Collocation of ascent ahead of a mid-level jet max and antecedent mid-level moisture should support isolated thunderstorms with limited rainfall across southeastern OR/southwestern ID on Day 3/Wednesday. The accelerated mid-level flow on the southern periphery of the aforementioned short wave along with a deep/well-mixed boundary layer will promote elevated west-southwest winds across much of the Great Basin and portions of southern Idaho. The breezy and very dry conditions support at least a 40% probability for critical fire weather conditions across the region amid an expected dry fuelscape. ...Day 4/Thursday... The mid-level short wave edges eastward into the Southern Rockies bringing elevated west winds to the Intermountain West and great Four Corners region Day 4/Thursday. A 40% probability for critical fire weather was introduced into southern UT and northern AZ where fuels will go under several days of drying through midweek, becoming more receptive to wildfire spread. ...Day 5-8/Friday-Monday... Building heat is expected across much of the Western U.S. through the weekend under an expanding mid-level ridge over southern CA which will promote a limited wind threat across the region. Monsoon moisture and associated thunderstorms will remain confined to southern AZ and NM through the weekend. ..Williams.. 07/07/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0500 PM CDT Mon Jul 07 2025 Valid 091200Z - 151200Z ...Day 3/Wednesday... Stronger west winds with the arrival of a mid-level short wave trough and attendant cold front are expected across the Columbia Basin where fuels remain dry. Although cooler temperatures and slightly higher humidity arrive with the cold front, sustained west winds of 15-25 mph will continue to support a fire weather threat amid dry fuels across the Columbia Basin. A mid-level short wave trough will translate over a broad ridge situated over the Southwestern U.S. Collocation of ascent ahead of a mid-level jet max and antecedent mid-level moisture should support isolated thunderstorms with limited rainfall across southeastern OR/southwestern ID on Day 3/Wednesday. The accelerated mid-level flow on the southern periphery of the aforementioned short wave along with a deep/well-mixed boundary layer will promote elevated west-southwest winds across much of the Great Basin and portions of southern Idaho. The breezy and very dry conditions support at least a 40% probability for critical fire weather conditions across the region amid an expected dry fuelscape. ...Day 4/Thursday... The mid-level short wave edges eastward into the Southern Rockies bringing elevated west winds to the Intermountain West and great Four Corners region Day 4/Thursday. A 40% probability for critical fire weather was introduced into southern UT and northern AZ where fuels will go under several days of drying through midweek, becoming more receptive to wildfire spread. ...Day 5-8/Friday-Monday... Building heat is expected across much of the Western U.S. through the weekend under an expanding mid-level ridge over southern CA which will promote a limited wind threat across the region. Monsoon moisture and associated thunderstorms will remain confined to southern AZ and NM through the weekend. ..Williams.. 07/07/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0500 PM CDT Mon Jul 07 2025 Valid 091200Z - 151200Z ...Day 3/Wednesday... Stronger west winds with the arrival of a mid-level short wave trough and attendant cold front are expected across the Columbia Basin where fuels remain dry. Although cooler temperatures and slightly higher humidity arrive with the cold front, sustained west winds of 15-25 mph will continue to support a fire weather threat amid dry fuels across the Columbia Basin. A mid-level short wave trough will translate over a broad ridge situated over the Southwestern U.S. Collocation of ascent ahead of a mid-level jet max and antecedent mid-level moisture should support isolated thunderstorms with limited rainfall across southeastern OR/southwestern ID on Day 3/Wednesday. The accelerated mid-level flow on the southern periphery of the aforementioned short wave along with a deep/well-mixed boundary layer will promote elevated west-southwest winds across much of the Great Basin and portions of southern Idaho. The breezy and very dry conditions support at least a 40% probability for critical fire weather conditions across the region amid an expected dry fuelscape. ...Day 4/Thursday... The mid-level short wave edges eastward into the Southern Rockies bringing elevated west winds to the Intermountain West and great Four Corners region Day 4/Thursday. A 40% probability for critical fire weather was introduced into southern UT and northern AZ where fuels will go under several days of drying through midweek, becoming more receptive to wildfire spread. ...Day 5-8/Friday-Monday... Building heat is expected across much of the Western U.S. through the weekend under an expanding mid-level ridge over southern CA which will promote a limited wind threat across the region. Monsoon moisture and associated thunderstorms will remain confined to southern AZ and NM through the weekend. ..Williams.. 07/07/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0500 PM CDT Mon Jul 07 2025 Valid 091200Z - 151200Z ...Day 3/Wednesday... Stronger west winds with the arrival of a mid-level short wave trough and attendant cold front are expected across the Columbia Basin where fuels remain dry. Although cooler temperatures and slightly higher humidity arrive with the cold front, sustained west winds of 15-25 mph will continue to support a fire weather threat amid dry fuels across the Columbia Basin. A mid-level short wave trough will translate over a broad ridge situated over the Southwestern U.S. Collocation of ascent ahead of a mid-level jet max and antecedent mid-level moisture should support isolated thunderstorms with limited rainfall across southeastern OR/southwestern ID on Day 3/Wednesday. The accelerated mid-level flow on the southern periphery of the aforementioned short wave along with a deep/well-mixed boundary layer will promote elevated west-southwest winds across much of the Great Basin and portions of southern Idaho. The breezy and very dry conditions support at least a 40% probability for critical fire weather conditions across the region amid an expected dry fuelscape. ...Day 4/Thursday... The mid-level short wave edges eastward into the Southern Rockies bringing elevated west winds to the Intermountain West and great Four Corners region Day 4/Thursday. A 40% probability for critical fire weather was introduced into southern UT and northern AZ where fuels will go under several days of drying through midweek, becoming more receptive to wildfire spread. ...Day 5-8/Friday-Monday... Building heat is expected across much of the Western U.S. through the weekend under an expanding mid-level ridge over southern CA which will promote a limited wind threat across the region. Monsoon moisture and associated thunderstorms will remain confined to southern AZ and NM through the weekend. ..Williams.. 07/07/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0500 PM CDT Mon Jul 07 2025 Valid 091200Z - 151200Z ...Day 3/Wednesday... Stronger west winds with the arrival of a mid-level short wave trough and attendant cold front are expected across the Columbia Basin where fuels remain dry. Although cooler temperatures and slightly higher humidity arrive with the cold front, sustained west winds of 15-25 mph will continue to support a fire weather threat amid dry fuels across the Columbia Basin. A mid-level short wave trough will translate over a broad ridge situated over the Southwestern U.S. Collocation of ascent ahead of a mid-level jet max and antecedent mid-level moisture should support isolated thunderstorms with limited rainfall across southeastern OR/southwestern ID on Day 3/Wednesday. The accelerated mid-level flow on the southern periphery of the aforementioned short wave along with a deep/well-mixed boundary layer will promote elevated west-southwest winds across much of the Great Basin and portions of southern Idaho. The breezy and very dry conditions support at least a 40% probability for critical fire weather conditions across the region amid an expected dry fuelscape. ...Day 4/Thursday... The mid-level short wave edges eastward into the Southern Rockies bringing elevated west winds to the Intermountain West and great Four Corners region Day 4/Thursday. A 40% probability for critical fire weather was introduced into southern UT and northern AZ where fuels will go under several days of drying through midweek, becoming more receptive to wildfire spread. ...Day 5-8/Friday-Monday... Building heat is expected across much of the Western U.S. through the weekend under an expanding mid-level ridge over southern CA which will promote a limited wind threat across the region. Monsoon moisture and associated thunderstorms will remain confined to southern AZ and NM through the weekend. ..Williams.. 07/07/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0500 PM CDT Mon Jul 07 2025 Valid 091200Z - 151200Z ...Day 3/Wednesday... Stronger west winds with the arrival of a mid-level short wave trough and attendant cold front are expected across the Columbia Basin where fuels remain dry. Although cooler temperatures and slightly higher humidity arrive with the cold front, sustained west winds of 15-25 mph will continue to support a fire weather threat amid dry fuels across the Columbia Basin. A mid-level short wave trough will translate over a broad ridge situated over the Southwestern U.S. Collocation of ascent ahead of a mid-level jet max and antecedent mid-level moisture should support isolated thunderstorms with limited rainfall across southeastern OR/southwestern ID on Day 3/Wednesday. The accelerated mid-level flow on the southern periphery of the aforementioned short wave along with a deep/well-mixed boundary layer will promote elevated west-southwest winds across much of the Great Basin and portions of southern Idaho. The breezy and very dry conditions support at least a 40% probability for critical fire weather conditions across the region amid an expected dry fuelscape. ...Day 4/Thursday... The mid-level short wave edges eastward into the Southern Rockies bringing elevated west winds to the Intermountain West and great Four Corners region Day 4/Thursday. A 40% probability for critical fire weather was introduced into southern UT and northern AZ where fuels will go under several days of drying through midweek, becoming more receptive to wildfire spread. ...Day 5-8/Friday-Monday... Building heat is expected across much of the Western U.S. through the weekend under an expanding mid-level ridge over southern CA which will promote a limited wind threat across the region. Monsoon moisture and associated thunderstorms will remain confined to southern AZ and NM through the weekend. ..Williams.. 07/07/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0500 PM CDT Mon Jul 07 2025 Valid 091200Z - 151200Z ...Day 3/Wednesday... Stronger west winds with the arrival of a mid-level short wave trough and attendant cold front are expected across the Columbia Basin where fuels remain dry. Although cooler temperatures and slightly higher humidity arrive with the cold front, sustained west winds of 15-25 mph will continue to support a fire weather threat amid dry fuels across the Columbia Basin. A mid-level short wave trough will translate over a broad ridge situated over the Southwestern U.S. Collocation of ascent ahead of a mid-level jet max and antecedent mid-level moisture should support isolated thunderstorms with limited rainfall across southeastern OR/southwestern ID on Day 3/Wednesday. The accelerated mid-level flow on the southern periphery of the aforementioned short wave along with a deep/well-mixed boundary layer will promote elevated west-southwest winds across much of the Great Basin and portions of southern Idaho. The breezy and very dry conditions support at least a 40% probability for critical fire weather conditions across the region amid an expected dry fuelscape. ...Day 4/Thursday... The mid-level short wave edges eastward into the Southern Rockies bringing elevated west winds to the Intermountain West and great Four Corners region Day 4/Thursday. A 40% probability for critical fire weather was introduced into southern UT and northern AZ where fuels will go under several days of drying through midweek, becoming more receptive to wildfire spread. ...Day 5-8/Friday-Monday... Building heat is expected across much of the Western U.S. through the weekend under an expanding mid-level ridge over southern CA which will promote a limited wind threat across the region. Monsoon moisture and associated thunderstorms will remain confined to southern AZ and NM through the weekend. ..Williams.. 07/07/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0500 PM CDT Mon Jul 07 2025 Valid 091200Z - 151200Z ...Day 3/Wednesday... Stronger west winds with the arrival of a mid-level short wave trough and attendant cold front are expected across the Columbia Basin where fuels remain dry. Although cooler temperatures and slightly higher humidity arrive with the cold front, sustained west winds of 15-25 mph will continue to support a fire weather threat amid dry fuels across the Columbia Basin. A mid-level short wave trough will translate over a broad ridge situated over the Southwestern U.S. Collocation of ascent ahead of a mid-level jet max and antecedent mid-level moisture should support isolated thunderstorms with limited rainfall across southeastern OR/southwestern ID on Day 3/Wednesday. The accelerated mid-level flow on the southern periphery of the aforementioned short wave along with a deep/well-mixed boundary layer will promote elevated west-southwest winds across much of the Great Basin and portions of southern Idaho. The breezy and very dry conditions support at least a 40% probability for critical fire weather conditions across the region amid an expected dry fuelscape. ...Day 4/Thursday... The mid-level short wave edges eastward into the Southern Rockies bringing elevated west winds to the Intermountain West and great Four Corners region Day 4/Thursday. A 40% probability for critical fire weather was introduced into southern UT and northern AZ where fuels will go under several days of drying through midweek, becoming more receptive to wildfire spread. ...Day 5-8/Friday-Monday... Building heat is expected across much of the Western U.S. through the weekend under an expanding mid-level ridge over southern CA which will promote a limited wind threat across the region. Monsoon moisture and associated thunderstorms will remain confined to southern AZ and NM through the weekend. ..Williams.. 07/07/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0500 PM CDT Mon Jul 07 2025 Valid 091200Z - 151200Z ...Day 3/Wednesday... Stronger west winds with the arrival of a mid-level short wave trough and attendant cold front are expected across the Columbia Basin where fuels remain dry. Although cooler temperatures and slightly higher humidity arrive with the cold front, sustained west winds of 15-25 mph will continue to support a fire weather threat amid dry fuels across the Columbia Basin. A mid-level short wave trough will translate over a broad ridge situated over the Southwestern U.S. Collocation of ascent ahead of a mid-level jet max and antecedent mid-level moisture should support isolated thunderstorms with limited rainfall across southeastern OR/southwestern ID on Day 3/Wednesday. The accelerated mid-level flow on the southern periphery of the aforementioned short wave along with a deep/well-mixed boundary layer will promote elevated west-southwest winds across much of the Great Basin and portions of southern Idaho. The breezy and very dry conditions support at least a 40% probability for critical fire weather conditions across the region amid an expected dry fuelscape. ...Day 4/Thursday... The mid-level short wave edges eastward into the Southern Rockies bringing elevated west winds to the Intermountain West and great Four Corners region Day 4/Thursday. A 40% probability for critical fire weather was introduced into southern UT and northern AZ where fuels will go under several days of drying through midweek, becoming more receptive to wildfire spread. ...Day 5-8/Friday-Monday... Building heat is expected across much of the Western U.S. through the weekend under an expanding mid-level ridge over southern CA which will promote a limited wind threat across the region. Monsoon moisture and associated thunderstorms will remain confined to southern AZ and NM through the weekend. ..Williams.. 07/07/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0500 PM CDT Mon Jul 07 2025 Valid 091200Z - 151200Z ...Day 3/Wednesday... Stronger west winds with the arrival of a mid-level short wave trough and attendant cold front are expected across the Columbia Basin where fuels remain dry. Although cooler temperatures and slightly higher humidity arrive with the cold front, sustained west winds of 15-25 mph will continue to support a fire weather threat amid dry fuels across the Columbia Basin. A mid-level short wave trough will translate over a broad ridge situated over the Southwestern U.S. Collocation of ascent ahead of a mid-level jet max and antecedent mid-level moisture should support isolated thunderstorms with limited rainfall across southeastern OR/southwestern ID on Day 3/Wednesday. The accelerated mid-level flow on the southern periphery of the aforementioned short wave along with a deep/well-mixed boundary layer will promote elevated west-southwest winds across much of the Great Basin and portions of southern Idaho. The breezy and very dry conditions support at least a 40% probability for critical fire weather conditions across the region amid an expected dry fuelscape. ...Day 4/Thursday... The mid-level short wave edges eastward into the Southern Rockies bringing elevated west winds to the Intermountain West and great Four Corners region Day 4/Thursday. A 40% probability for critical fire weather was introduced into southern UT and northern AZ where fuels will go under several days of drying through midweek, becoming more receptive to wildfire spread. ...Day 5-8/Friday-Monday... Building heat is expected across much of the Western U.S. through the weekend under an expanding mid-level ridge over southern CA which will promote a limited wind threat across the region. Monsoon moisture and associated thunderstorms will remain confined to southern AZ and NM through the weekend. ..Williams.. 07/07/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0500 PM CDT Mon Jul 07 2025 Valid 091200Z - 151200Z ...Day 3/Wednesday... Stronger west winds with the arrival of a mid-level short wave trough and attendant cold front are expected across the Columbia Basin where fuels remain dry. Although cooler temperatures and slightly higher humidity arrive with the cold front, sustained west winds of 15-25 mph will continue to support a fire weather threat amid dry fuels across the Columbia Basin. A mid-level short wave trough will translate over a broad ridge situated over the Southwestern U.S. Collocation of ascent ahead of a mid-level jet max and antecedent mid-level moisture should support isolated thunderstorms with limited rainfall across southeastern OR/southwestern ID on Day 3/Wednesday. The accelerated mid-level flow on the southern periphery of the aforementioned short wave along with a deep/well-mixed boundary layer will promote elevated west-southwest winds across much of the Great Basin and portions of southern Idaho. The breezy and very dry conditions support at least a 40% probability for critical fire weather conditions across the region amid an expected dry fuelscape. ...Day 4/Thursday... The mid-level short wave edges eastward into the Southern Rockies bringing elevated west winds to the Intermountain West and great Four Corners region Day 4/Thursday. A 40% probability for critical fire weather was introduced into southern UT and northern AZ where fuels will go under several days of drying through midweek, becoming more receptive to wildfire spread. ...Day 5-8/Friday-Monday... Building heat is expected across much of the Western U.S. through the weekend under an expanding mid-level ridge over southern CA which will promote a limited wind threat across the region. Monsoon moisture and associated thunderstorms will remain confined to southern AZ and NM through the weekend. ..Williams.. 07/07/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

MD 1595 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR SOUTH-CENTRAL NEBRASKA
Mesoscale Discussion 1595 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0328 PM CDT Mon Jul 07 2025 Areas affected...south-central Nebraska Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 072028Z - 072200Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Isolated storms capable of large hail/damaging winds expected to to continue. Watch issuance is possible but remains uncertain in the short term. DISCUSSION...Visible satellite/radar shows a few isolated storms that have developed during peak heating amid a very unstable airmass, characterized by MLCAPE values nearing 3000 J/kg. Deep layer shear has remained somewhat marginal thus far, perhaps approaching 30-35 kt, but is forecast to increase with time. Thus, storms should exhibit supercell characteristics, with large hail and damaging winds the primary threats. Southeasterly low-level flow is promoting at least some elongation of hodographs, but low-level shear remains weak in general. Thus, the tornado threat appears low but cannot be ruled out. These storms are expected to remain isolated, and thus, watch issuance is not anticipated in the short term. However, convective trends will be monitored should a watch be needed for the region. ..Karstens/Hart.. 07/07/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OAX...GID...LBF... LAT...LON 40169732 40119843 41029906 41829869 41969762 41529693 40989700 40169732 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more

MD 1594 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR FAR NORTHEAST NEW YORK...NORTHERN VERMONT AND NEW HAMPSHIRE...AND INTO CENTRAL MAINE
Mesoscale Discussion 1594 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0303 PM CDT Mon Jul 07 2025 Areas affected...Far northeast New York...northern Vermont and New Hampshire...and into central Maine Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 072003Z - 072200Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Isolated strong thunderstorms may pose a severe wind/hail risk through the afternoon and early evening hours. This threat is expected to remain sufficiently isolated to preclude watch issuance. DISCUSSION...Latest regional radar imagery shows a gradual maturation of convection across far northeast NY and across central ME along/ahead of a cold front. Temperatures warming into the low 80s with dewpoints in the upper 60s to low 70s is slowly eroding inhibition with MLCAPE increasing to around 500-1000 J/kg region wide. This warming trend should continue and will promote further thunderstorm intensification over the next couple of hours. 30-40 knot mid-level winds in proximity to a weakening upper trough are supporting sufficient hodograph elongation for organized convection. While convective mode will likely transition to predominantly a semi-organized convective band due to strong flow along the initiating cold front, an initial supercell or two appears possible and may pose a severe hail/wind risk through the afternoon - especially across central ME where forcing for ascent is currently more nebulous. With time, strong to severe winds should become the predominant hazard as a band of storms begins to emerge. Despite these concerns, the overall severe threat is expected to remain sufficiently isolated to preclude watch issuance. ..Moore/Hart.. 07/07/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...BTV...ALY... LAT...LON 44976732 44926764 44217268 44037357 43907416 43957473 44217494 44497457 44877394 45047328 45057156 45177116 45667061 46077007 45996787 45926754 45766700 45456690 45146705 44976732 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

MD 1593 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA
Mesoscale Discussion 1593 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0255 PM CDT Mon Jul 07 2025 Areas affected...eastern North Dakota and northwest Minnesota Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 071955Z - 072200Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Large hail, damaging winds, and perhaps a tornado are possible this afternoon/evening. Watch issuance is possible. DISCUSSION...Regional satellite/radar show convection developing along a cold front positioned from northeast North Dakota extending southwestward, and along a warm front extending into northeast Minnesota. This activity is developing in a region where skies have remained clear in proximity to passing cirrus clouds to the immediate south. In addition, cool mid-level temperatures are overspreading the region, in association with an upper-level trough. These factors are contributing to destabilization that is yielding MLCAPE values near 1500 J/kg. Ample effective shear of 40-45 kt is also present, associated with the aforementioned trough. Storms are expected to continue increasing in coverage and severity throughout the afternoon and into the evening. Large hail and damaging wind gusts will be the primary threats. A tornado will also be possible with any storm that can favorably interact with aforementioned warm front. Coverage of storms remains uncertain in the short term, given the extent of the cirrus shield limiting destabilization. However, at least some CAM solutions suggest greater coverage may materialize. Thus, convective trends will be monitored for possible watch issuance this afternoon/evening. ..Karstens/Hart.. 07/07/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS... LAT...LON 46209904 46929958 47909867 48659858 48929753 48199615 46769546 46129652 46209904 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more

WW 0493 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 493 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..WEINMAN..07/07/25 ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...LBF...ABR...UNR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 493 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IAC035-119-141-143-149-167-193-072240- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHEROKEE LYON O'BRIEN OSCEOLA PLYMOUTH SIOUX WOODBURY MNC081-083-101-105-117-133-072240- MN . MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE LINCOLN LYON MURRAY NOBLES PIPESTONE ROCK NEC003-009-015-017-027-043-051-071-089-103-107-115-139-149-179- 183-072240- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANTELOPE BLAINE BOYD Read more