Severe Storms

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 PM CDT Wed Jul 09 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL KS TO EASTERN IA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible, mainly late afternoon and evening on Friday, from central Kansas to eastern Iowa. ...Central States... Primary change this outlook is to add a level 2-SLGT risk for the most probable corridor of severe storms during the late afternoon and evening Friday. Have also expanded the longitudinal extent of the level 1-MRGL in the North-Central States and southward through the southern High Plains. A decaying MCS should be ongoing at 12Z Friday in vicinity of IA. An attendant MCV with this activity may be separate from the mid-level impulse/low-amplitude shortwave trough that is progged to emerge onto the central Great Plains Thursday night. A belt of modestly enhanced mid-level west-southwesterlies ahead of these features will support semi-organized clustering as renewed convective development occurs towards peak heating. This is anticipated from along a retreating large-scale outflow boundary southwestward towards the dryline mixing into central KS. With ample buoyancy, scattered severe storms seem possible with damaging wind as the main hazard. Isolated severe storms are possible across a much broader region. Along the synoptic cold front in northern MN to eastern SD, mid-level flow enhancement should be confined west of the front, owing to the positive-tilt orientation and compact nature of the shortwave trough across the southern Canadian Prairies into the northern Great Plains. Modest mid-level northwesterlies will support an isolated severe threat across the central/southern High Plains, with high-based convection in a limited buoyancy environment. ...East... A low-amplitude mid-level trough will move east from QC to the Canadian Maritimes. Weak height rises will occur in its wake across New England. Still, most guidance suggests isolated thunderstorms will be possible in this region, where moderate effective bulk shear could support an isolated/marginal wind/hail threat Friday afternoon. Farther south, scattered thunderstorms seem probable Friday afternoon from the DE to Savannah Valleys. Prior days of extensive convective overturning should temper PW values/storm coverage to an extent. This suggests wet microburst potential may be subdued. ..Grams.. 07/09/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 PM CDT Wed Jul 09 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL KS TO EASTERN IA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible, mainly late afternoon and evening on Friday, from central Kansas to eastern Iowa. ...Central States... Primary change this outlook is to add a level 2-SLGT risk for the most probable corridor of severe storms during the late afternoon and evening Friday. Have also expanded the longitudinal extent of the level 1-MRGL in the North-Central States and southward through the southern High Plains. A decaying MCS should be ongoing at 12Z Friday in vicinity of IA. An attendant MCV with this activity may be separate from the mid-level impulse/low-amplitude shortwave trough that is progged to emerge onto the central Great Plains Thursday night. A belt of modestly enhanced mid-level west-southwesterlies ahead of these features will support semi-organized clustering as renewed convective development occurs towards peak heating. This is anticipated from along a retreating large-scale outflow boundary southwestward towards the dryline mixing into central KS. With ample buoyancy, scattered severe storms seem possible with damaging wind as the main hazard. Isolated severe storms are possible across a much broader region. Along the synoptic cold front in northern MN to eastern SD, mid-level flow enhancement should be confined west of the front, owing to the positive-tilt orientation and compact nature of the shortwave trough across the southern Canadian Prairies into the northern Great Plains. Modest mid-level northwesterlies will support an isolated severe threat across the central/southern High Plains, with high-based convection in a limited buoyancy environment. ...East... A low-amplitude mid-level trough will move east from QC to the Canadian Maritimes. Weak height rises will occur in its wake across New England. Still, most guidance suggests isolated thunderstorms will be possible in this region, where moderate effective bulk shear could support an isolated/marginal wind/hail threat Friday afternoon. Farther south, scattered thunderstorms seem probable Friday afternoon from the DE to Savannah Valleys. Prior days of extensive convective overturning should temper PW values/storm coverage to an extent. This suggests wet microburst potential may be subdued. ..Grams.. 07/09/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 PM CDT Wed Jul 09 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL KS TO EASTERN IA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible, mainly late afternoon and evening on Friday, from central Kansas to eastern Iowa. ...Central States... Primary change this outlook is to add a level 2-SLGT risk for the most probable corridor of severe storms during the late afternoon and evening Friday. Have also expanded the longitudinal extent of the level 1-MRGL in the North-Central States and southward through the southern High Plains. A decaying MCS should be ongoing at 12Z Friday in vicinity of IA. An attendant MCV with this activity may be separate from the mid-level impulse/low-amplitude shortwave trough that is progged to emerge onto the central Great Plains Thursday night. A belt of modestly enhanced mid-level west-southwesterlies ahead of these features will support semi-organized clustering as renewed convective development occurs towards peak heating. This is anticipated from along a retreating large-scale outflow boundary southwestward towards the dryline mixing into central KS. With ample buoyancy, scattered severe storms seem possible with damaging wind as the main hazard. Isolated severe storms are possible across a much broader region. Along the synoptic cold front in northern MN to eastern SD, mid-level flow enhancement should be confined west of the front, owing to the positive-tilt orientation and compact nature of the shortwave trough across the southern Canadian Prairies into the northern Great Plains. Modest mid-level northwesterlies will support an isolated severe threat across the central/southern High Plains, with high-based convection in a limited buoyancy environment. ...East... A low-amplitude mid-level trough will move east from QC to the Canadian Maritimes. Weak height rises will occur in its wake across New England. Still, most guidance suggests isolated thunderstorms will be possible in this region, where moderate effective bulk shear could support an isolated/marginal wind/hail threat Friday afternoon. Farther south, scattered thunderstorms seem probable Friday afternoon from the DE to Savannah Valleys. Prior days of extensive convective overturning should temper PW values/storm coverage to an extent. This suggests wet microburst potential may be subdued. ..Grams.. 07/09/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 PM CDT Wed Jul 09 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL KS TO EASTERN IA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible, mainly late afternoon and evening on Friday, from central Kansas to eastern Iowa. ...Central States... Primary change this outlook is to add a level 2-SLGT risk for the most probable corridor of severe storms during the late afternoon and evening Friday. Have also expanded the longitudinal extent of the level 1-MRGL in the North-Central States and southward through the southern High Plains. A decaying MCS should be ongoing at 12Z Friday in vicinity of IA. An attendant MCV with this activity may be separate from the mid-level impulse/low-amplitude shortwave trough that is progged to emerge onto the central Great Plains Thursday night. A belt of modestly enhanced mid-level west-southwesterlies ahead of these features will support semi-organized clustering as renewed convective development occurs towards peak heating. This is anticipated from along a retreating large-scale outflow boundary southwestward towards the dryline mixing into central KS. With ample buoyancy, scattered severe storms seem possible with damaging wind as the main hazard. Isolated severe storms are possible across a much broader region. Along the synoptic cold front in northern MN to eastern SD, mid-level flow enhancement should be confined west of the front, owing to the positive-tilt orientation and compact nature of the shortwave trough across the southern Canadian Prairies into the northern Great Plains. Modest mid-level northwesterlies will support an isolated severe threat across the central/southern High Plains, with high-based convection in a limited buoyancy environment. ...East... A low-amplitude mid-level trough will move east from QC to the Canadian Maritimes. Weak height rises will occur in its wake across New England. Still, most guidance suggests isolated thunderstorms will be possible in this region, where moderate effective bulk shear could support an isolated/marginal wind/hail threat Friday afternoon. Farther south, scattered thunderstorms seem probable Friday afternoon from the DE to Savannah Valleys. Prior days of extensive convective overturning should temper PW values/storm coverage to an extent. This suggests wet microburst potential may be subdued. ..Grams.. 07/09/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 PM CDT Wed Jul 09 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL KS TO EASTERN IA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible, mainly late afternoon and evening on Friday, from central Kansas to eastern Iowa. ...Central States... Primary change this outlook is to add a level 2-SLGT risk for the most probable corridor of severe storms during the late afternoon and evening Friday. Have also expanded the longitudinal extent of the level 1-MRGL in the North-Central States and southward through the southern High Plains. A decaying MCS should be ongoing at 12Z Friday in vicinity of IA. An attendant MCV with this activity may be separate from the mid-level impulse/low-amplitude shortwave trough that is progged to emerge onto the central Great Plains Thursday night. A belt of modestly enhanced mid-level west-southwesterlies ahead of these features will support semi-organized clustering as renewed convective development occurs towards peak heating. This is anticipated from along a retreating large-scale outflow boundary southwestward towards the dryline mixing into central KS. With ample buoyancy, scattered severe storms seem possible with damaging wind as the main hazard. Isolated severe storms are possible across a much broader region. Along the synoptic cold front in northern MN to eastern SD, mid-level flow enhancement should be confined west of the front, owing to the positive-tilt orientation and compact nature of the shortwave trough across the southern Canadian Prairies into the northern Great Plains. Modest mid-level northwesterlies will support an isolated severe threat across the central/southern High Plains, with high-based convection in a limited buoyancy environment. ...East... A low-amplitude mid-level trough will move east from QC to the Canadian Maritimes. Weak height rises will occur in its wake across New England. Still, most guidance suggests isolated thunderstorms will be possible in this region, where moderate effective bulk shear could support an isolated/marginal wind/hail threat Friday afternoon. Farther south, scattered thunderstorms seem probable Friday afternoon from the DE to Savannah Valleys. Prior days of extensive convective overturning should temper PW values/storm coverage to an extent. This suggests wet microburst potential may be subdued. ..Grams.. 07/09/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 PM CDT Wed Jul 09 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL KS TO EASTERN IA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible, mainly late afternoon and evening on Friday, from central Kansas to eastern Iowa. ...Central States... Primary change this outlook is to add a level 2-SLGT risk for the most probable corridor of severe storms during the late afternoon and evening Friday. Have also expanded the longitudinal extent of the level 1-MRGL in the North-Central States and southward through the southern High Plains. A decaying MCS should be ongoing at 12Z Friday in vicinity of IA. An attendant MCV with this activity may be separate from the mid-level impulse/low-amplitude shortwave trough that is progged to emerge onto the central Great Plains Thursday night. A belt of modestly enhanced mid-level west-southwesterlies ahead of these features will support semi-organized clustering as renewed convective development occurs towards peak heating. This is anticipated from along a retreating large-scale outflow boundary southwestward towards the dryline mixing into central KS. With ample buoyancy, scattered severe storms seem possible with damaging wind as the main hazard. Isolated severe storms are possible across a much broader region. Along the synoptic cold front in northern MN to eastern SD, mid-level flow enhancement should be confined west of the front, owing to the positive-tilt orientation and compact nature of the shortwave trough across the southern Canadian Prairies into the northern Great Plains. Modest mid-level northwesterlies will support an isolated severe threat across the central/southern High Plains, with high-based convection in a limited buoyancy environment. ...East... A low-amplitude mid-level trough will move east from QC to the Canadian Maritimes. Weak height rises will occur in its wake across New England. Still, most guidance suggests isolated thunderstorms will be possible in this region, where moderate effective bulk shear could support an isolated/marginal wind/hail threat Friday afternoon. Farther south, scattered thunderstorms seem probable Friday afternoon from the DE to Savannah Valleys. Prior days of extensive convective overturning should temper PW values/storm coverage to an extent. This suggests wet microburst potential may be subdued. ..Grams.. 07/09/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 PM CDT Wed Jul 09 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL KS TO EASTERN IA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible, mainly late afternoon and evening on Friday, from central Kansas to eastern Iowa. ...Central States... Primary change this outlook is to add a level 2-SLGT risk for the most probable corridor of severe storms during the late afternoon and evening Friday. Have also expanded the longitudinal extent of the level 1-MRGL in the North-Central States and southward through the southern High Plains. A decaying MCS should be ongoing at 12Z Friday in vicinity of IA. An attendant MCV with this activity may be separate from the mid-level impulse/low-amplitude shortwave trough that is progged to emerge onto the central Great Plains Thursday night. A belt of modestly enhanced mid-level west-southwesterlies ahead of these features will support semi-organized clustering as renewed convective development occurs towards peak heating. This is anticipated from along a retreating large-scale outflow boundary southwestward towards the dryline mixing into central KS. With ample buoyancy, scattered severe storms seem possible with damaging wind as the main hazard. Isolated severe storms are possible across a much broader region. Along the synoptic cold front in northern MN to eastern SD, mid-level flow enhancement should be confined west of the front, owing to the positive-tilt orientation and compact nature of the shortwave trough across the southern Canadian Prairies into the northern Great Plains. Modest mid-level northwesterlies will support an isolated severe threat across the central/southern High Plains, with high-based convection in a limited buoyancy environment. ...East... A low-amplitude mid-level trough will move east from QC to the Canadian Maritimes. Weak height rises will occur in its wake across New England. Still, most guidance suggests isolated thunderstorms will be possible in this region, where moderate effective bulk shear could support an isolated/marginal wind/hail threat Friday afternoon. Farther south, scattered thunderstorms seem probable Friday afternoon from the DE to Savannah Valleys. Prior days of extensive convective overturning should temper PW values/storm coverage to an extent. This suggests wet microburst potential may be subdued. ..Grams.. 07/09/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 PM CDT Wed Jul 09 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL KS TO EASTERN IA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible, mainly late afternoon and evening on Friday, from central Kansas to eastern Iowa. ...Central States... Primary change this outlook is to add a level 2-SLGT risk for the most probable corridor of severe storms during the late afternoon and evening Friday. Have also expanded the longitudinal extent of the level 1-MRGL in the North-Central States and southward through the southern High Plains. A decaying MCS should be ongoing at 12Z Friday in vicinity of IA. An attendant MCV with this activity may be separate from the mid-level impulse/low-amplitude shortwave trough that is progged to emerge onto the central Great Plains Thursday night. A belt of modestly enhanced mid-level west-southwesterlies ahead of these features will support semi-organized clustering as renewed convective development occurs towards peak heating. This is anticipated from along a retreating large-scale outflow boundary southwestward towards the dryline mixing into central KS. With ample buoyancy, scattered severe storms seem possible with damaging wind as the main hazard. Isolated severe storms are possible across a much broader region. Along the synoptic cold front in northern MN to eastern SD, mid-level flow enhancement should be confined west of the front, owing to the positive-tilt orientation and compact nature of the shortwave trough across the southern Canadian Prairies into the northern Great Plains. Modest mid-level northwesterlies will support an isolated severe threat across the central/southern High Plains, with high-based convection in a limited buoyancy environment. ...East... A low-amplitude mid-level trough will move east from QC to the Canadian Maritimes. Weak height rises will occur in its wake across New England. Still, most guidance suggests isolated thunderstorms will be possible in this region, where moderate effective bulk shear could support an isolated/marginal wind/hail threat Friday afternoon. Farther south, scattered thunderstorms seem probable Friday afternoon from the DE to Savannah Valleys. Prior days of extensive convective overturning should temper PW values/storm coverage to an extent. This suggests wet microburst potential may be subdued. ..Grams.. 07/09/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 PM CDT Wed Jul 09 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL KS TO EASTERN IA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible, mainly late afternoon and evening on Friday, from central Kansas to eastern Iowa. ...Central States... Primary change this outlook is to add a level 2-SLGT risk for the most probable corridor of severe storms during the late afternoon and evening Friday. Have also expanded the longitudinal extent of the level 1-MRGL in the North-Central States and southward through the southern High Plains. A decaying MCS should be ongoing at 12Z Friday in vicinity of IA. An attendant MCV with this activity may be separate from the mid-level impulse/low-amplitude shortwave trough that is progged to emerge onto the central Great Plains Thursday night. A belt of modestly enhanced mid-level west-southwesterlies ahead of these features will support semi-organized clustering as renewed convective development occurs towards peak heating. This is anticipated from along a retreating large-scale outflow boundary southwestward towards the dryline mixing into central KS. With ample buoyancy, scattered severe storms seem possible with damaging wind as the main hazard. Isolated severe storms are possible across a much broader region. Along the synoptic cold front in northern MN to eastern SD, mid-level flow enhancement should be confined west of the front, owing to the positive-tilt orientation and compact nature of the shortwave trough across the southern Canadian Prairies into the northern Great Plains. Modest mid-level northwesterlies will support an isolated severe threat across the central/southern High Plains, with high-based convection in a limited buoyancy environment. ...East... A low-amplitude mid-level trough will move east from QC to the Canadian Maritimes. Weak height rises will occur in its wake across New England. Still, most guidance suggests isolated thunderstorms will be possible in this region, where moderate effective bulk shear could support an isolated/marginal wind/hail threat Friday afternoon. Farther south, scattered thunderstorms seem probable Friday afternoon from the DE to Savannah Valleys. Prior days of extensive convective overturning should temper PW values/storm coverage to an extent. This suggests wet microburst potential may be subdued. ..Grams.. 07/09/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 PM CDT Wed Jul 09 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL KS TO EASTERN IA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible, mainly late afternoon and evening on Friday, from central Kansas to eastern Iowa. ...Central States... Primary change this outlook is to add a level 2-SLGT risk for the most probable corridor of severe storms during the late afternoon and evening Friday. Have also expanded the longitudinal extent of the level 1-MRGL in the North-Central States and southward through the southern High Plains. A decaying MCS should be ongoing at 12Z Friday in vicinity of IA. An attendant MCV with this activity may be separate from the mid-level impulse/low-amplitude shortwave trough that is progged to emerge onto the central Great Plains Thursday night. A belt of modestly enhanced mid-level west-southwesterlies ahead of these features will support semi-organized clustering as renewed convective development occurs towards peak heating. This is anticipated from along a retreating large-scale outflow boundary southwestward towards the dryline mixing into central KS. With ample buoyancy, scattered severe storms seem possible with damaging wind as the main hazard. Isolated severe storms are possible across a much broader region. Along the synoptic cold front in northern MN to eastern SD, mid-level flow enhancement should be confined west of the front, owing to the positive-tilt orientation and compact nature of the shortwave trough across the southern Canadian Prairies into the northern Great Plains. Modest mid-level northwesterlies will support an isolated severe threat across the central/southern High Plains, with high-based convection in a limited buoyancy environment. ...East... A low-amplitude mid-level trough will move east from QC to the Canadian Maritimes. Weak height rises will occur in its wake across New England. Still, most guidance suggests isolated thunderstorms will be possible in this region, where moderate effective bulk shear could support an isolated/marginal wind/hail threat Friday afternoon. Farther south, scattered thunderstorms seem probable Friday afternoon from the DE to Savannah Valleys. Prior days of extensive convective overturning should temper PW values/storm coverage to an extent. This suggests wet microburst potential may be subdued. ..Grams.. 07/09/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 PM CDT Wed Jul 09 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL KS TO EASTERN IA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible, mainly late afternoon and evening on Friday, from central Kansas to eastern Iowa. ...Central States... Primary change this outlook is to add a level 2-SLGT risk for the most probable corridor of severe storms during the late afternoon and evening Friday. Have also expanded the longitudinal extent of the level 1-MRGL in the North-Central States and southward through the southern High Plains. A decaying MCS should be ongoing at 12Z Friday in vicinity of IA. An attendant MCV with this activity may be separate from the mid-level impulse/low-amplitude shortwave trough that is progged to emerge onto the central Great Plains Thursday night. A belt of modestly enhanced mid-level west-southwesterlies ahead of these features will support semi-organized clustering as renewed convective development occurs towards peak heating. This is anticipated from along a retreating large-scale outflow boundary southwestward towards the dryline mixing into central KS. With ample buoyancy, scattered severe storms seem possible with damaging wind as the main hazard. Isolated severe storms are possible across a much broader region. Along the synoptic cold front in northern MN to eastern SD, mid-level flow enhancement should be confined west of the front, owing to the positive-tilt orientation and compact nature of the shortwave trough across the southern Canadian Prairies into the northern Great Plains. Modest mid-level northwesterlies will support an isolated severe threat across the central/southern High Plains, with high-based convection in a limited buoyancy environment. ...East... A low-amplitude mid-level trough will move east from QC to the Canadian Maritimes. Weak height rises will occur in its wake across New England. Still, most guidance suggests isolated thunderstorms will be possible in this region, where moderate effective bulk shear could support an isolated/marginal wind/hail threat Friday afternoon. Farther south, scattered thunderstorms seem probable Friday afternoon from the DE to Savannah Valleys. Prior days of extensive convective overturning should temper PW values/storm coverage to an extent. This suggests wet microburst potential may be subdued. ..Grams.. 07/09/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 PM CDT Wed Jul 09 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL KS TO EASTERN IA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible, mainly late afternoon and evening on Friday, from central Kansas to eastern Iowa. ...Central States... Primary change this outlook is to add a level 2-SLGT risk for the most probable corridor of severe storms during the late afternoon and evening Friday. Have also expanded the longitudinal extent of the level 1-MRGL in the North-Central States and southward through the southern High Plains. A decaying MCS should be ongoing at 12Z Friday in vicinity of IA. An attendant MCV with this activity may be separate from the mid-level impulse/low-amplitude shortwave trough that is progged to emerge onto the central Great Plains Thursday night. A belt of modestly enhanced mid-level west-southwesterlies ahead of these features will support semi-organized clustering as renewed convective development occurs towards peak heating. This is anticipated from along a retreating large-scale outflow boundary southwestward towards the dryline mixing into central KS. With ample buoyancy, scattered severe storms seem possible with damaging wind as the main hazard. Isolated severe storms are possible across a much broader region. Along the synoptic cold front in northern MN to eastern SD, mid-level flow enhancement should be confined west of the front, owing to the positive-tilt orientation and compact nature of the shortwave trough across the southern Canadian Prairies into the northern Great Plains. Modest mid-level northwesterlies will support an isolated severe threat across the central/southern High Plains, with high-based convection in a limited buoyancy environment. ...East... A low-amplitude mid-level trough will move east from QC to the Canadian Maritimes. Weak height rises will occur in its wake across New England. Still, most guidance suggests isolated thunderstorms will be possible in this region, where moderate effective bulk shear could support an isolated/marginal wind/hail threat Friday afternoon. Farther south, scattered thunderstorms seem probable Friday afternoon from the DE to Savannah Valleys. Prior days of extensive convective overturning should temper PW values/storm coverage to an extent. This suggests wet microburst potential may be subdued. ..Grams.. 07/09/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 PM CDT Wed Jul 09 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL KS TO EASTERN IA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible, mainly late afternoon and evening on Friday, from central Kansas to eastern Iowa. ...Central States... Primary change this outlook is to add a level 2-SLGT risk for the most probable corridor of severe storms during the late afternoon and evening Friday. Have also expanded the longitudinal extent of the level 1-MRGL in the North-Central States and southward through the southern High Plains. A decaying MCS should be ongoing at 12Z Friday in vicinity of IA. An attendant MCV with this activity may be separate from the mid-level impulse/low-amplitude shortwave trough that is progged to emerge onto the central Great Plains Thursday night. A belt of modestly enhanced mid-level west-southwesterlies ahead of these features will support semi-organized clustering as renewed convective development occurs towards peak heating. This is anticipated from along a retreating large-scale outflow boundary southwestward towards the dryline mixing into central KS. With ample buoyancy, scattered severe storms seem possible with damaging wind as the main hazard. Isolated severe storms are possible across a much broader region. Along the synoptic cold front in northern MN to eastern SD, mid-level flow enhancement should be confined west of the front, owing to the positive-tilt orientation and compact nature of the shortwave trough across the southern Canadian Prairies into the northern Great Plains. Modest mid-level northwesterlies will support an isolated severe threat across the central/southern High Plains, with high-based convection in a limited buoyancy environment. ...East... A low-amplitude mid-level trough will move east from QC to the Canadian Maritimes. Weak height rises will occur in its wake across New England. Still, most guidance suggests isolated thunderstorms will be possible in this region, where moderate effective bulk shear could support an isolated/marginal wind/hail threat Friday afternoon. Farther south, scattered thunderstorms seem probable Friday afternoon from the DE to Savannah Valleys. Prior days of extensive convective overturning should temper PW values/storm coverage to an extent. This suggests wet microburst potential may be subdued. ..Grams.. 07/09/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 PM CDT Wed Jul 09 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL KS TO EASTERN IA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible, mainly late afternoon and evening on Friday, from central Kansas to eastern Iowa. ...Central States... Primary change this outlook is to add a level 2-SLGT risk for the most probable corridor of severe storms during the late afternoon and evening Friday. Have also expanded the longitudinal extent of the level 1-MRGL in the North-Central States and southward through the southern High Plains. A decaying MCS should be ongoing at 12Z Friday in vicinity of IA. An attendant MCV with this activity may be separate from the mid-level impulse/low-amplitude shortwave trough that is progged to emerge onto the central Great Plains Thursday night. A belt of modestly enhanced mid-level west-southwesterlies ahead of these features will support semi-organized clustering as renewed convective development occurs towards peak heating. This is anticipated from along a retreating large-scale outflow boundary southwestward towards the dryline mixing into central KS. With ample buoyancy, scattered severe storms seem possible with damaging wind as the main hazard. Isolated severe storms are possible across a much broader region. Along the synoptic cold front in northern MN to eastern SD, mid-level flow enhancement should be confined west of the front, owing to the positive-tilt orientation and compact nature of the shortwave trough across the southern Canadian Prairies into the northern Great Plains. Modest mid-level northwesterlies will support an isolated severe threat across the central/southern High Plains, with high-based convection in a limited buoyancy environment. ...East... A low-amplitude mid-level trough will move east from QC to the Canadian Maritimes. Weak height rises will occur in its wake across New England. Still, most guidance suggests isolated thunderstorms will be possible in this region, where moderate effective bulk shear could support an isolated/marginal wind/hail threat Friday afternoon. Farther south, scattered thunderstorms seem probable Friday afternoon from the DE to Savannah Valleys. Prior days of extensive convective overturning should temper PW values/storm coverage to an extent. This suggests wet microburst potential may be subdued. ..Grams.. 07/09/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 PM CDT Wed Jul 09 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL KS TO EASTERN IA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible, mainly late afternoon and evening on Friday, from central Kansas to eastern Iowa. ...Central States... Primary change this outlook is to add a level 2-SLGT risk for the most probable corridor of severe storms during the late afternoon and evening Friday. Have also expanded the longitudinal extent of the level 1-MRGL in the North-Central States and southward through the southern High Plains. A decaying MCS should be ongoing at 12Z Friday in vicinity of IA. An attendant MCV with this activity may be separate from the mid-level impulse/low-amplitude shortwave trough that is progged to emerge onto the central Great Plains Thursday night. A belt of modestly enhanced mid-level west-southwesterlies ahead of these features will support semi-organized clustering as renewed convective development occurs towards peak heating. This is anticipated from along a retreating large-scale outflow boundary southwestward towards the dryline mixing into central KS. With ample buoyancy, scattered severe storms seem possible with damaging wind as the main hazard. Isolated severe storms are possible across a much broader region. Along the synoptic cold front in northern MN to eastern SD, mid-level flow enhancement should be confined west of the front, owing to the positive-tilt orientation and compact nature of the shortwave trough across the southern Canadian Prairies into the northern Great Plains. Modest mid-level northwesterlies will support an isolated severe threat across the central/southern High Plains, with high-based convection in a limited buoyancy environment. ...East... A low-amplitude mid-level trough will move east from QC to the Canadian Maritimes. Weak height rises will occur in its wake across New England. Still, most guidance suggests isolated thunderstorms will be possible in this region, where moderate effective bulk shear could support an isolated/marginal wind/hail threat Friday afternoon. Farther south, scattered thunderstorms seem probable Friday afternoon from the DE to Savannah Valleys. Prior days of extensive convective overturning should temper PW values/storm coverage to an extent. This suggests wet microburst potential may be subdued. ..Grams.. 07/09/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 PM CDT Wed Jul 09 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL KS TO EASTERN IA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible, mainly late afternoon and evening on Friday, from central Kansas to eastern Iowa. ...Central States... Primary change this outlook is to add a level 2-SLGT risk for the most probable corridor of severe storms during the late afternoon and evening Friday. Have also expanded the longitudinal extent of the level 1-MRGL in the North-Central States and southward through the southern High Plains. A decaying MCS should be ongoing at 12Z Friday in vicinity of IA. An attendant MCV with this activity may be separate from the mid-level impulse/low-amplitude shortwave trough that is progged to emerge onto the central Great Plains Thursday night. A belt of modestly enhanced mid-level west-southwesterlies ahead of these features will support semi-organized clustering as renewed convective development occurs towards peak heating. This is anticipated from along a retreating large-scale outflow boundary southwestward towards the dryline mixing into central KS. With ample buoyancy, scattered severe storms seem possible with damaging wind as the main hazard. Isolated severe storms are possible across a much broader region. Along the synoptic cold front in northern MN to eastern SD, mid-level flow enhancement should be confined west of the front, owing to the positive-tilt orientation and compact nature of the shortwave trough across the southern Canadian Prairies into the northern Great Plains. Modest mid-level northwesterlies will support an isolated severe threat across the central/southern High Plains, with high-based convection in a limited buoyancy environment. ...East... A low-amplitude mid-level trough will move east from QC to the Canadian Maritimes. Weak height rises will occur in its wake across New England. Still, most guidance suggests isolated thunderstorms will be possible in this region, where moderate effective bulk shear could support an isolated/marginal wind/hail threat Friday afternoon. Farther south, scattered thunderstorms seem probable Friday afternoon from the DE to Savannah Valleys. Prior days of extensive convective overturning should temper PW values/storm coverage to an extent. This suggests wet microburst potential may be subdued. ..Grams.. 07/09/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 PM CDT Wed Jul 09 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL KS TO EASTERN IA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible, mainly late afternoon and evening on Friday, from central Kansas to eastern Iowa. ...Central States... Primary change this outlook is to add a level 2-SLGT risk for the most probable corridor of severe storms during the late afternoon and evening Friday. Have also expanded the longitudinal extent of the level 1-MRGL in the North-Central States and southward through the southern High Plains. A decaying MCS should be ongoing at 12Z Friday in vicinity of IA. An attendant MCV with this activity may be separate from the mid-level impulse/low-amplitude shortwave trough that is progged to emerge onto the central Great Plains Thursday night. A belt of modestly enhanced mid-level west-southwesterlies ahead of these features will support semi-organized clustering as renewed convective development occurs towards peak heating. This is anticipated from along a retreating large-scale outflow boundary southwestward towards the dryline mixing into central KS. With ample buoyancy, scattered severe storms seem possible with damaging wind as the main hazard. Isolated severe storms are possible across a much broader region. Along the synoptic cold front in northern MN to eastern SD, mid-level flow enhancement should be confined west of the front, owing to the positive-tilt orientation and compact nature of the shortwave trough across the southern Canadian Prairies into the northern Great Plains. Modest mid-level northwesterlies will support an isolated severe threat across the central/southern High Plains, with high-based convection in a limited buoyancy environment. ...East... A low-amplitude mid-level trough will move east from QC to the Canadian Maritimes. Weak height rises will occur in its wake across New England. Still, most guidance suggests isolated thunderstorms will be possible in this region, where moderate effective bulk shear could support an isolated/marginal wind/hail threat Friday afternoon. Farther south, scattered thunderstorms seem probable Friday afternoon from the DE to Savannah Valleys. Prior days of extensive convective overturning should temper PW values/storm coverage to an extent. This suggests wet microburst potential may be subdued. ..Grams.. 07/09/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 PM CDT Wed Jul 09 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL KS TO EASTERN IA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible, mainly late afternoon and evening on Friday, from central Kansas to eastern Iowa. ...Central States... Primary change this outlook is to add a level 2-SLGT risk for the most probable corridor of severe storms during the late afternoon and evening Friday. Have also expanded the longitudinal extent of the level 1-MRGL in the North-Central States and southward through the southern High Plains. A decaying MCS should be ongoing at 12Z Friday in vicinity of IA. An attendant MCV with this activity may be separate from the mid-level impulse/low-amplitude shortwave trough that is progged to emerge onto the central Great Plains Thursday night. A belt of modestly enhanced mid-level west-southwesterlies ahead of these features will support semi-organized clustering as renewed convective development occurs towards peak heating. This is anticipated from along a retreating large-scale outflow boundary southwestward towards the dryline mixing into central KS. With ample buoyancy, scattered severe storms seem possible with damaging wind as the main hazard. Isolated severe storms are possible across a much broader region. Along the synoptic cold front in northern MN to eastern SD, mid-level flow enhancement should be confined west of the front, owing to the positive-tilt orientation and compact nature of the shortwave trough across the southern Canadian Prairies into the northern Great Plains. Modest mid-level northwesterlies will support an isolated severe threat across the central/southern High Plains, with high-based convection in a limited buoyancy environment. ...East... A low-amplitude mid-level trough will move east from QC to the Canadian Maritimes. Weak height rises will occur in its wake across New England. Still, most guidance suggests isolated thunderstorms will be possible in this region, where moderate effective bulk shear could support an isolated/marginal wind/hail threat Friday afternoon. Farther south, scattered thunderstorms seem probable Friday afternoon from the DE to Savannah Valleys. Prior days of extensive convective overturning should temper PW values/storm coverage to an extent. This suggests wet microburst potential may be subdued. ..Grams.. 07/09/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 PM CDT Wed Jul 09 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL KS TO EASTERN IA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible, mainly late afternoon and evening on Friday, from central Kansas to eastern Iowa. ...Central States... Primary change this outlook is to add a level 2-SLGT risk for the most probable corridor of severe storms during the late afternoon and evening Friday. Have also expanded the longitudinal extent of the level 1-MRGL in the North-Central States and southward through the southern High Plains. A decaying MCS should be ongoing at 12Z Friday in vicinity of IA. An attendant MCV with this activity may be separate from the mid-level impulse/low-amplitude shortwave trough that is progged to emerge onto the central Great Plains Thursday night. A belt of modestly enhanced mid-level west-southwesterlies ahead of these features will support semi-organized clustering as renewed convective development occurs towards peak heating. This is anticipated from along a retreating large-scale outflow boundary southwestward towards the dryline mixing into central KS. With ample buoyancy, scattered severe storms seem possible with damaging wind as the main hazard. Isolated severe storms are possible across a much broader region. Along the synoptic cold front in northern MN to eastern SD, mid-level flow enhancement should be confined west of the front, owing to the positive-tilt orientation and compact nature of the shortwave trough across the southern Canadian Prairies into the northern Great Plains. Modest mid-level northwesterlies will support an isolated severe threat across the central/southern High Plains, with high-based convection in a limited buoyancy environment. ...East... A low-amplitude mid-level trough will move east from QC to the Canadian Maritimes. Weak height rises will occur in its wake across New England. Still, most guidance suggests isolated thunderstorms will be possible in this region, where moderate effective bulk shear could support an isolated/marginal wind/hail threat Friday afternoon. Farther south, scattered thunderstorms seem probable Friday afternoon from the DE to Savannah Valleys. Prior days of extensive convective overturning should temper PW values/storm coverage to an extent. This suggests wet microburst potential may be subdued. ..Grams.. 07/09/2025 Read more

MD 1615 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SOUTH CAROLINA INTO FAR EASTERN GEORGIA
Mesoscale Discussion 1615 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1226 PM CDT Wed Jul 09 2025 Areas affected...South Carolina into far eastern Georgia Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 091726Z - 091930Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms are developing in an environment supportive of strong to severe downburst winds. This threat should remain relatively brief/isolated; watch issuance is not expected. DISCUSSION...Deep convection is rapidly developing from south-central GA into portions of SC within a weak low-level confluence zone and along a strengthening sea-breeze boundary. This comes as temperatures quickly warm into the low 90s within a very moist environment. Morning guidance has largely displayed a 3-5 F cool and dry bias across the region so far today, which has resulted in initiation slightly earlier than anticipated as well as SBCAPE values upwards of 4000-5000 J/kg. Observed dewpoint depressions on the order of 15 F suggest that LCLs are likely at around 1 km AGL with near-surface lapse rates on the order of 7-8 C/km. This combination of extreme buoyancy atop a shallow low-level dry-adiabatic layer should promote strong, water-loaded downdrafts capable of damaging/severe downburst winds (most likely between 40-60 mph) through late afternoon. Very weak flow over the region (generally less than 15 knots per regional VWPs) will favor disorganized multicells with limited duration. Consequently, the short-range predictability and coverage of damaging winds will remain limited and precludes watch issuance. ..Moore/Mosier.. 07/09/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ILM...CHS...CAE...GSP...JAX...FFC...TAE... LAT...LON 32198060 31918100 31548123 31228136 30958153 30868198 31008235 31238274 31468310 31768330 32318335 33318296 34278211 34468175 34508139 34348035 34218002 34077982 33907972 33757972 32198060 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH Read more