Severe Storms

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Wed Sep 3 23:44:08 UTC 2025.

WW 0605 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 605 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSE RSL TO 35 ESE SLN TO 10 E MHK. ..THORNTON..09/03/25 ATTN...WFO...ICT...TOP...DDC...SGF...EAX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 605 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC001-003-007-011-015-017-019-031-035-037-049-059-073-077-079- 095-099-107-111-113-115-121-125-127-133-139-151-155-159-173-185- 191-205-207-040040- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALLEN ANDERSON BARBER BOURBON BUTLER CHASE CHAUTAUQUA COFFEY COWLEY CRAWFORD ELK FRANKLIN GREENWOOD HARPER HARVEY KINGMAN LABETTE LINN LYON MCPHERSON MARION MIAMI MONTGOMERY MORRIS NEOSHO OSAGE PRATT RENO RICE SEDGWICK STAFFORD SUMNER WILSON WOODSON MOC011-013-037-217-040040- MO . MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

WW 605 SEVERE TSTM KS MO 032220Z - 040400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 605 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 520 PM CDT Wed Sep 3 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Central and Eastern Kansas Western Missouri * Effective this Wednesday afternoon and evening from 520 PM until 1100 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter possible Isolated damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible SUMMARY...Intense thunderstorms are expected to develop and track southward across the watch area this evening. Supercells capable of large hail are the main concern, along with some risk of damaging wind gusts. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 50 statute miles north and south of a line from 30 miles north northwest of Medicine Lodge KS to 75 miles east northeast of Chanute KS. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 35025. ...Hart Read more

MD 2028 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS INTO WESTERN MISSOURI
Mesoscale Discussion 2028 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0443 PM CDT Wed Sep 03 2025 Areas affected...portions of central and eastern Kansas into western Missouri Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 032143Z - 032245Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Isolated supercells development likely this evening with hail and damaging winds as the primary threat. DISCUSSION...Cumulus development is noted near the surface low and cold front across central Kansas, with a few storms beginning to develop near the surface trough in western/west-central Kansas. This thunderstorm development is occurring on the edge of a region of MLCIN across much of southeastern Kansas in Oklahoma. With daytime heating under mostly sunny skies, temperatures in this region in the low to mid 80s. As the cold front shifts southward, additional thunderstorm development is expected over the next couple of hours. The environment is favorable for supercells, with MLCAPE around 1000-2000 J/kg and shear 40-50 kts. VAD profiles from TWX and ICT show linear hodograph structures, indicative of supercells that favor splits and potential for large hail and damaging winds. A watch will likely be needed soon to cover this potential. ..Thornton/Hart.. 09/03/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC... LAT...LON 39429730 39259630 38989535 38689463 38349441 38079437 37739438 37419455 37099501 37079544 37119613 37139674 37059777 37129852 37259893 37379918 37589939 38109948 38659933 39239870 39429730 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more

WW 0605 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0605 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0454 PM CDT Wed Sep 03 2025 Valid 051200Z - 111200Z ...Day 3-6/Friday - Pacific Northwest... A mid-level, negatively tilted trough moving into the northern CA/southern OR region on Day 3/Friday will usher in a more favorable convective environment with increasing vertical shear and instability supportive of thunderstorms across much of OR. However, some uncertainty exists in magnitude of sub-cloud moisture content which could bring more wetting rain cores to the area in conjunction with cooling temperatures and higher relative humidity values as the upper-level trough translates eastward through the weekend. The parent Pacific low is expected to bring much cooler temperatures along with wetting rains to much of the Pacific Northwest beginning Day 5/Sunday, mitigating fire weather concerns through late next week. ...Day 3-8/Friday-Wednesday - Eastern CONUS... A broad upper-low will usher in a cold front and subsequent cooler air mass into much of the eastern U.S. Day 3/Friday through early next week. Injection of tropical moisture from the remnants of Hurricane Lorena into the Southwest through Day 4/Saturday will support wetting rains along the cold front across portions of the Southern Plains and Deep south early next week, reducing fire weather concerns. ..Williams.. 09/03/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0454 PM CDT Wed Sep 03 2025 Valid 051200Z - 111200Z ...Day 3-6/Friday - Pacific Northwest... A mid-level, negatively tilted trough moving into the northern CA/southern OR region on Day 3/Friday will usher in a more favorable convective environment with increasing vertical shear and instability supportive of thunderstorms across much of OR. However, some uncertainty exists in magnitude of sub-cloud moisture content which could bring more wetting rain cores to the area in conjunction with cooling temperatures and higher relative humidity values as the upper-level trough translates eastward through the weekend. The parent Pacific low is expected to bring much cooler temperatures along with wetting rains to much of the Pacific Northwest beginning Day 5/Sunday, mitigating fire weather concerns through late next week. ...Day 3-8/Friday-Wednesday - Eastern CONUS... A broad upper-low will usher in a cold front and subsequent cooler air mass into much of the eastern U.S. Day 3/Friday through early next week. Injection of tropical moisture from the remnants of Hurricane Lorena into the Southwest through Day 4/Saturday will support wetting rains along the cold front across portions of the Southern Plains and Deep south early next week, reducing fire weather concerns. ..Williams.. 09/03/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0454 PM CDT Wed Sep 03 2025 Valid 051200Z - 111200Z ...Day 3-6/Friday - Pacific Northwest... A mid-level, negatively tilted trough moving into the northern CA/southern OR region on Day 3/Friday will usher in a more favorable convective environment with increasing vertical shear and instability supportive of thunderstorms across much of OR. However, some uncertainty exists in magnitude of sub-cloud moisture content which could bring more wetting rain cores to the area in conjunction with cooling temperatures and higher relative humidity values as the upper-level trough translates eastward through the weekend. The parent Pacific low is expected to bring much cooler temperatures along with wetting rains to much of the Pacific Northwest beginning Day 5/Sunday, mitigating fire weather concerns through late next week. ...Day 3-8/Friday-Wednesday - Eastern CONUS... A broad upper-low will usher in a cold front and subsequent cooler air mass into much of the eastern U.S. Day 3/Friday through early next week. Injection of tropical moisture from the remnants of Hurricane Lorena into the Southwest through Day 4/Saturday will support wetting rains along the cold front across portions of the Southern Plains and Deep south early next week, reducing fire weather concerns. ..Williams.. 09/03/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0454 PM CDT Wed Sep 03 2025 Valid 051200Z - 111200Z ...Day 3-6/Friday - Pacific Northwest... A mid-level, negatively tilted trough moving into the northern CA/southern OR region on Day 3/Friday will usher in a more favorable convective environment with increasing vertical shear and instability supportive of thunderstorms across much of OR. However, some uncertainty exists in magnitude of sub-cloud moisture content which could bring more wetting rain cores to the area in conjunction with cooling temperatures and higher relative humidity values as the upper-level trough translates eastward through the weekend. The parent Pacific low is expected to bring much cooler temperatures along with wetting rains to much of the Pacific Northwest beginning Day 5/Sunday, mitigating fire weather concerns through late next week. ...Day 3-8/Friday-Wednesday - Eastern CONUS... A broad upper-low will usher in a cold front and subsequent cooler air mass into much of the eastern U.S. Day 3/Friday through early next week. Injection of tropical moisture from the remnants of Hurricane Lorena into the Southwest through Day 4/Saturday will support wetting rains along the cold front across portions of the Southern Plains and Deep south early next week, reducing fire weather concerns. ..Williams.. 09/03/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0454 PM CDT Wed Sep 03 2025 Valid 051200Z - 111200Z ...Day 3-6/Friday - Pacific Northwest... A mid-level, negatively tilted trough moving into the northern CA/southern OR region on Day 3/Friday will usher in a more favorable convective environment with increasing vertical shear and instability supportive of thunderstorms across much of OR. However, some uncertainty exists in magnitude of sub-cloud moisture content which could bring more wetting rain cores to the area in conjunction with cooling temperatures and higher relative humidity values as the upper-level trough translates eastward through the weekend. The parent Pacific low is expected to bring much cooler temperatures along with wetting rains to much of the Pacific Northwest beginning Day 5/Sunday, mitigating fire weather concerns through late next week. ...Day 3-8/Friday-Wednesday - Eastern CONUS... A broad upper-low will usher in a cold front and subsequent cooler air mass into much of the eastern U.S. Day 3/Friday through early next week. Injection of tropical moisture from the remnants of Hurricane Lorena into the Southwest through Day 4/Saturday will support wetting rains along the cold front across portions of the Southern Plains and Deep south early next week, reducing fire weather concerns. ..Williams.. 09/03/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0454 PM CDT Wed Sep 03 2025 Valid 051200Z - 111200Z ...Day 3-6/Friday - Pacific Northwest... A mid-level, negatively tilted trough moving into the northern CA/southern OR region on Day 3/Friday will usher in a more favorable convective environment with increasing vertical shear and instability supportive of thunderstorms across much of OR. However, some uncertainty exists in magnitude of sub-cloud moisture content which could bring more wetting rain cores to the area in conjunction with cooling temperatures and higher relative humidity values as the upper-level trough translates eastward through the weekend. The parent Pacific low is expected to bring much cooler temperatures along with wetting rains to much of the Pacific Northwest beginning Day 5/Sunday, mitigating fire weather concerns through late next week. ...Day 3-8/Friday-Wednesday - Eastern CONUS... A broad upper-low will usher in a cold front and subsequent cooler air mass into much of the eastern U.S. Day 3/Friday through early next week. Injection of tropical moisture from the remnants of Hurricane Lorena into the Southwest through Day 4/Saturday will support wetting rains along the cold front across portions of the Southern Plains and Deep south early next week, reducing fire weather concerns. ..Williams.. 09/03/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0454 PM CDT Wed Sep 03 2025 Valid 051200Z - 111200Z ...Day 3-6/Friday - Pacific Northwest... A mid-level, negatively tilted trough moving into the northern CA/southern OR region on Day 3/Friday will usher in a more favorable convective environment with increasing vertical shear and instability supportive of thunderstorms across much of OR. However, some uncertainty exists in magnitude of sub-cloud moisture content which could bring more wetting rain cores to the area in conjunction with cooling temperatures and higher relative humidity values as the upper-level trough translates eastward through the weekend. The parent Pacific low is expected to bring much cooler temperatures along with wetting rains to much of the Pacific Northwest beginning Day 5/Sunday, mitigating fire weather concerns through late next week. ...Day 3-8/Friday-Wednesday - Eastern CONUS... A broad upper-low will usher in a cold front and subsequent cooler air mass into much of the eastern U.S. Day 3/Friday through early next week. Injection of tropical moisture from the remnants of Hurricane Lorena into the Southwest through Day 4/Saturday will support wetting rains along the cold front across portions of the Southern Plains and Deep south early next week, reducing fire weather concerns. ..Williams.. 09/03/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0454 PM CDT Wed Sep 03 2025 Valid 051200Z - 111200Z ...Day 3-6/Friday - Pacific Northwest... A mid-level, negatively tilted trough moving into the northern CA/southern OR region on Day 3/Friday will usher in a more favorable convective environment with increasing vertical shear and instability supportive of thunderstorms across much of OR. However, some uncertainty exists in magnitude of sub-cloud moisture content which could bring more wetting rain cores to the area in conjunction with cooling temperatures and higher relative humidity values as the upper-level trough translates eastward through the weekend. The parent Pacific low is expected to bring much cooler temperatures along with wetting rains to much of the Pacific Northwest beginning Day 5/Sunday, mitigating fire weather concerns through late next week. ...Day 3-8/Friday-Wednesday - Eastern CONUS... A broad upper-low will usher in a cold front and subsequent cooler air mass into much of the eastern U.S. Day 3/Friday through early next week. Injection of tropical moisture from the remnants of Hurricane Lorena into the Southwest through Day 4/Saturday will support wetting rains along the cold front across portions of the Southern Plains and Deep south early next week, reducing fire weather concerns. ..Williams.. 09/03/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0454 PM CDT Wed Sep 03 2025 Valid 051200Z - 111200Z ...Day 3-6/Friday - Pacific Northwest... A mid-level, negatively tilted trough moving into the northern CA/southern OR region on Day 3/Friday will usher in a more favorable convective environment with increasing vertical shear and instability supportive of thunderstorms across much of OR. However, some uncertainty exists in magnitude of sub-cloud moisture content which could bring more wetting rain cores to the area in conjunction with cooling temperatures and higher relative humidity values as the upper-level trough translates eastward through the weekend. The parent Pacific low is expected to bring much cooler temperatures along with wetting rains to much of the Pacific Northwest beginning Day 5/Sunday, mitigating fire weather concerns through late next week. ...Day 3-8/Friday-Wednesday - Eastern CONUS... A broad upper-low will usher in a cold front and subsequent cooler air mass into much of the eastern U.S. Day 3/Friday through early next week. Injection of tropical moisture from the remnants of Hurricane Lorena into the Southwest through Day 4/Saturday will support wetting rains along the cold front across portions of the Southern Plains and Deep south early next week, reducing fire weather concerns. ..Williams.. 09/03/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0454 PM CDT Wed Sep 03 2025 Valid 051200Z - 111200Z ...Day 3-6/Friday - Pacific Northwest... A mid-level, negatively tilted trough moving into the northern CA/southern OR region on Day 3/Friday will usher in a more favorable convective environment with increasing vertical shear and instability supportive of thunderstorms across much of OR. However, some uncertainty exists in magnitude of sub-cloud moisture content which could bring more wetting rain cores to the area in conjunction with cooling temperatures and higher relative humidity values as the upper-level trough translates eastward through the weekend. The parent Pacific low is expected to bring much cooler temperatures along with wetting rains to much of the Pacific Northwest beginning Day 5/Sunday, mitigating fire weather concerns through late next week. ...Day 3-8/Friday-Wednesday - Eastern CONUS... A broad upper-low will usher in a cold front and subsequent cooler air mass into much of the eastern U.S. Day 3/Friday through early next week. Injection of tropical moisture from the remnants of Hurricane Lorena into the Southwest through Day 4/Saturday will support wetting rains along the cold front across portions of the Southern Plains and Deep south early next week, reducing fire weather concerns. ..Williams.. 09/03/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0454 PM CDT Wed Sep 03 2025 Valid 051200Z - 111200Z ...Day 3-6/Friday - Pacific Northwest... A mid-level, negatively tilted trough moving into the northern CA/southern OR region on Day 3/Friday will usher in a more favorable convective environment with increasing vertical shear and instability supportive of thunderstorms across much of OR. However, some uncertainty exists in magnitude of sub-cloud moisture content which could bring more wetting rain cores to the area in conjunction with cooling temperatures and higher relative humidity values as the upper-level trough translates eastward through the weekend. The parent Pacific low is expected to bring much cooler temperatures along with wetting rains to much of the Pacific Northwest beginning Day 5/Sunday, mitigating fire weather concerns through late next week. ...Day 3-8/Friday-Wednesday - Eastern CONUS... A broad upper-low will usher in a cold front and subsequent cooler air mass into much of the eastern U.S. Day 3/Friday through early next week. Injection of tropical moisture from the remnants of Hurricane Lorena into the Southwest through Day 4/Saturday will support wetting rains along the cold front across portions of the Southern Plains and Deep south early next week, reducing fire weather concerns. ..Williams.. 09/03/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

No watches are valid as of Wed Sep 3 22:00:02 UTC 2025.

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0256 PM CDT Wed Sep 03 2025 Valid 032000Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms capable of producing large to very large hail and severe wind gusts should occur this afternoon and evening across parts of the central Plains and lower Missouri Valley. ...20Z Update... The general thunderstorm forecast was updated based on observational trends. The severe probabilities remain unchanged. See the previous forecast for additional information. ..Wendt.. 09/03/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Wed Sep 03 2025/ ...Central Plains into the Lower Missouri Valley... A mid-level shortwave trough over southern SD/eastern NE will continue to advance quickly southeastward today as a large-scale upper-level low moves from western ON to near Lake Superior through the period. The shortwave trough is forecast to reach the lower MO Valley by late afternoon, with an attendant belt of moderately strong northwesterly mid/high-level flow overspreading the central Plains into the mid MS Valley. At the surface, a cold front will advance southward across parts of the central Plains and lower MO Valley, with generally low to mid 60s surface dewpoints present ahead of the boundary. Diurnal heating of this airmass will contribute to moderate instability (MLCAPE around 1000-2000 J/kg) by mid afternoon across central/eastern KS, with weaker instability forecast with eastward extent into MO. As convective inhibition gradually erodes near the front, scattered thunderstorms will likely develop along its length from central KS into the lower MO Valley during the 20-00Z period. Around 35-55 kt of northwesterly flow in the 500-250 mb layer will yield similar values of effective bulk shear, which will support organized updrafts. A few supercells will probably evolve across central/eastern KS and perhaps into western MO, where the main risk will be large to very large hail given steep lapse rates aloft and favorable shear. Severe wind gusts will also be possible with these supercells, or any small clusters/bowing segments that can develop where low-level lapse rates are steepest (mainly KS into northwest OK and parts of the OK/TX Panhandles). Some severe threat should persist into the evening as multiple small clusters move southward into southern KS and adjacent portions of far northern OK and southwest MO, before they eventually weaken as convective inhibition increases with nocturnal cooling. ...Great Lakes/Midwest... Additional thunderstorms should develop this afternoon along/near the cold front across parts of Lower MI into central IL. Poor lapse rates aloft and limited low-level moisture (reference 12Z soundings from APX and ILX) will likely temper the degree of instability that can develop, even with diurnal heating. While occasional strong/gusty winds appear possible with thunderstorms that spread east-southeastward this afternoon and evening, the overall severe threat should remain fairly limited. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0256 PM CDT Wed Sep 03 2025 Valid 032000Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms capable of producing large to very large hail and severe wind gusts should occur this afternoon and evening across parts of the central Plains and lower Missouri Valley. ...20Z Update... The general thunderstorm forecast was updated based on observational trends. The severe probabilities remain unchanged. See the previous forecast for additional information. ..Wendt.. 09/03/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Wed Sep 03 2025/ ...Central Plains into the Lower Missouri Valley... A mid-level shortwave trough over southern SD/eastern NE will continue to advance quickly southeastward today as a large-scale upper-level low moves from western ON to near Lake Superior through the period. The shortwave trough is forecast to reach the lower MO Valley by late afternoon, with an attendant belt of moderately strong northwesterly mid/high-level flow overspreading the central Plains into the mid MS Valley. At the surface, a cold front will advance southward across parts of the central Plains and lower MO Valley, with generally low to mid 60s surface dewpoints present ahead of the boundary. Diurnal heating of this airmass will contribute to moderate instability (MLCAPE around 1000-2000 J/kg) by mid afternoon across central/eastern KS, with weaker instability forecast with eastward extent into MO. As convective inhibition gradually erodes near the front, scattered thunderstorms will likely develop along its length from central KS into the lower MO Valley during the 20-00Z period. Around 35-55 kt of northwesterly flow in the 500-250 mb layer will yield similar values of effective bulk shear, which will support organized updrafts. A few supercells will probably evolve across central/eastern KS and perhaps into western MO, where the main risk will be large to very large hail given steep lapse rates aloft and favorable shear. Severe wind gusts will also be possible with these supercells, or any small clusters/bowing segments that can develop where low-level lapse rates are steepest (mainly KS into northwest OK and parts of the OK/TX Panhandles). Some severe threat should persist into the evening as multiple small clusters move southward into southern KS and adjacent portions of far northern OK and southwest MO, before they eventually weaken as convective inhibition increases with nocturnal cooling. ...Great Lakes/Midwest... Additional thunderstorms should develop this afternoon along/near the cold front across parts of Lower MI into central IL. Poor lapse rates aloft and limited low-level moisture (reference 12Z soundings from APX and ILX) will likely temper the degree of instability that can develop, even with diurnal heating. While occasional strong/gusty winds appear possible with thunderstorms that spread east-southeastward this afternoon and evening, the overall severe threat should remain fairly limited. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0256 PM CDT Wed Sep 03 2025 Valid 032000Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms capable of producing large to very large hail and severe wind gusts should occur this afternoon and evening across parts of the central Plains and lower Missouri Valley. ...20Z Update... The general thunderstorm forecast was updated based on observational trends. The severe probabilities remain unchanged. See the previous forecast for additional information. ..Wendt.. 09/03/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Wed Sep 03 2025/ ...Central Plains into the Lower Missouri Valley... A mid-level shortwave trough over southern SD/eastern NE will continue to advance quickly southeastward today as a large-scale upper-level low moves from western ON to near Lake Superior through the period. The shortwave trough is forecast to reach the lower MO Valley by late afternoon, with an attendant belt of moderately strong northwesterly mid/high-level flow overspreading the central Plains into the mid MS Valley. At the surface, a cold front will advance southward across parts of the central Plains and lower MO Valley, with generally low to mid 60s surface dewpoints present ahead of the boundary. Diurnal heating of this airmass will contribute to moderate instability (MLCAPE around 1000-2000 J/kg) by mid afternoon across central/eastern KS, with weaker instability forecast with eastward extent into MO. As convective inhibition gradually erodes near the front, scattered thunderstorms will likely develop along its length from central KS into the lower MO Valley during the 20-00Z period. Around 35-55 kt of northwesterly flow in the 500-250 mb layer will yield similar values of effective bulk shear, which will support organized updrafts. A few supercells will probably evolve across central/eastern KS and perhaps into western MO, where the main risk will be large to very large hail given steep lapse rates aloft and favorable shear. Severe wind gusts will also be possible with these supercells, or any small clusters/bowing segments that can develop where low-level lapse rates are steepest (mainly KS into northwest OK and parts of the OK/TX Panhandles). Some severe threat should persist into the evening as multiple small clusters move southward into southern KS and adjacent portions of far northern OK and southwest MO, before they eventually weaken as convective inhibition increases with nocturnal cooling. ...Great Lakes/Midwest... Additional thunderstorms should develop this afternoon along/near the cold front across parts of Lower MI into central IL. Poor lapse rates aloft and limited low-level moisture (reference 12Z soundings from APX and ILX) will likely temper the degree of instability that can develop, even with diurnal heating. While occasional strong/gusty winds appear possible with thunderstorms that spread east-southeastward this afternoon and evening, the overall severe threat should remain fairly limited. Read more