Severe Storms

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1133 AM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025 Valid 101630Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST SD...NORTHEAST NE...AND WESTERN IA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST NY AND MOST OF VT... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of large hail, damaging winds, and perhaps a couple of tornadoes are possible late this afternoon into tonight across parts of the central Great Plains to the Midwest, particularly across the Middle Missouri Valley. Additional severe storms are expected across parts of the Northeast and Southeast. ...Central High Plains through the Central Plains into IA... Recent surface analysis places a low near the NE/CO border, with a moist airmass ahead of it over the central Plains. Satellite imagery also shows a shortwave trough moving through the Great Basin towards the central High Plains. Both of these features are expected to move eastward throughout the day, with the surface low contributing to eventual convective initiation over far southeast SD/northeast NE and northwest IA this afternoon. The shortwave is expected to result in numerous thunderstorms over the high terrain, with these storms then moving eastward into the central High Plains. The thunderstorms that develop near the surface low will encounter a strongly unstable and moderately sheared environment supportive of initial supercells capable of all severe hazards, including very large hail and tornadoes. This activity should quickly grow upscale, with the resulting convective line pushing southeastward into more of northeast NE and western IA. Given ample buoyancy downstream, some significant wind gusts are possible as this line moves eastward/southeastward. Farther west, the thunderstorms moving into the central High Plains will initially be high-based and capable of strong wind gusts as they move into the very deeply mixed airmass downstream. Some amalgamation along cold pools is possible here over time, with the resulting convective line likely moving eastward across south-central NE and central KS. Damaging gusts will be possible as this line moves eastward. ...Mid MS Valley... A well-defined MCV is currently moving across southern MN, with the expectation that it will continue gradually eastward throughout the day. Daytime heating along the southern/southeastern periphery of this vorticity max will likely result in airmass destabilization and moderate buoyancy from eastern IA into southern WI and northern IL this afternoon. Mesoscale ascent attendant to the MCV will interact with this airmass, likely resulting in thunderstorm development. Low to mid-level flow enhanced by the MCV will result in moderate vertical shear and the potential for a few supercells. Given the mesoscale nature of this scenario, overall storm coverage, including the supercell coverage, is uncertain. Any supercells that do develop could result in a threat for all severe hazards, including large hail and a brief tornado. Conditionality of the overall scenario merits only low severe probabilities for now, but higher probabilities maybe needed for the 20Z if trends merit. ...New England and Upper Ohio Valley... A shortwave trough currently is moving through the base of the larger cyclone over central/eastern ON. This shortwave is forecast to continue eastward throughout the day, resulting in broad ascent from the Upper OH Valley into New England. Scattered thunderstorm development is probable during peak afternoon heating, as this wave interacts with moderate buoyancy and vertical shear. A predominantly multicellular mode is anticipated, with damaging winds and isolated hail as the primary risks. A corridor of slightly better low-level moisture is expected over the Champlain Valley vicinity, which could result in both greater storm coverage and stronger, more long-lived updrafts. As a result, there is a small area where higher severe coverage is possible. ...Southeast/Southern Atlantic Seaboard... A very moist airmass is in place across the Southeast and southern Atlantic Seaboard. Recent surface analysis reveals dewpoints in the low to mid 70s areawide. 12Z soundings at FFC, JAX, and CHS sampled PW values of 1.91", 1.97", and 2.14", respectively. This ample low-level moisture will help support airmass destabilization and moderate to strong buoyancy as temperatures increase into the upper 80s and low 90s this afternoon. Subtle ascent along the southern periphery of broad upper troughing will interact with this unstable and buoyant airmass to support scattered strong to severe thunderstorms this afternoon through early/mid-evening. Vertical shear across the region will be very weak, resulting in an outflow-dominant storm mode, with new development then occurring along these outflows. Water-loaded downbursts will be the primary hazard as these clusters gradually move southeastward over time. ..Mosier/Moore.. 07/10/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1133 AM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025 Valid 101630Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST SD...NORTHEAST NE...AND WESTERN IA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST NY AND MOST OF VT... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of large hail, damaging winds, and perhaps a couple of tornadoes are possible late this afternoon into tonight across parts of the central Great Plains to the Midwest, particularly across the Middle Missouri Valley. Additional severe storms are expected across parts of the Northeast and Southeast. ...Central High Plains through the Central Plains into IA... Recent surface analysis places a low near the NE/CO border, with a moist airmass ahead of it over the central Plains. Satellite imagery also shows a shortwave trough moving through the Great Basin towards the central High Plains. Both of these features are expected to move eastward throughout the day, with the surface low contributing to eventual convective initiation over far southeast SD/northeast NE and northwest IA this afternoon. The shortwave is expected to result in numerous thunderstorms over the high terrain, with these storms then moving eastward into the central High Plains. The thunderstorms that develop near the surface low will encounter a strongly unstable and moderately sheared environment supportive of initial supercells capable of all severe hazards, including very large hail and tornadoes. This activity should quickly grow upscale, with the resulting convective line pushing southeastward into more of northeast NE and western IA. Given ample buoyancy downstream, some significant wind gusts are possible as this line moves eastward/southeastward. Farther west, the thunderstorms moving into the central High Plains will initially be high-based and capable of strong wind gusts as they move into the very deeply mixed airmass downstream. Some amalgamation along cold pools is possible here over time, with the resulting convective line likely moving eastward across south-central NE and central KS. Damaging gusts will be possible as this line moves eastward. ...Mid MS Valley... A well-defined MCV is currently moving across southern MN, with the expectation that it will continue gradually eastward throughout the day. Daytime heating along the southern/southeastern periphery of this vorticity max will likely result in airmass destabilization and moderate buoyancy from eastern IA into southern WI and northern IL this afternoon. Mesoscale ascent attendant to the MCV will interact with this airmass, likely resulting in thunderstorm development. Low to mid-level flow enhanced by the MCV will result in moderate vertical shear and the potential for a few supercells. Given the mesoscale nature of this scenario, overall storm coverage, including the supercell coverage, is uncertain. Any supercells that do develop could result in a threat for all severe hazards, including large hail and a brief tornado. Conditionality of the overall scenario merits only low severe probabilities for now, but higher probabilities maybe needed for the 20Z if trends merit. ...New England and Upper Ohio Valley... A shortwave trough currently is moving through the base of the larger cyclone over central/eastern ON. This shortwave is forecast to continue eastward throughout the day, resulting in broad ascent from the Upper OH Valley into New England. Scattered thunderstorm development is probable during peak afternoon heating, as this wave interacts with moderate buoyancy and vertical shear. A predominantly multicellular mode is anticipated, with damaging winds and isolated hail as the primary risks. A corridor of slightly better low-level moisture is expected over the Champlain Valley vicinity, which could result in both greater storm coverage and stronger, more long-lived updrafts. As a result, there is a small area where higher severe coverage is possible. ...Southeast/Southern Atlantic Seaboard... A very moist airmass is in place across the Southeast and southern Atlantic Seaboard. Recent surface analysis reveals dewpoints in the low to mid 70s areawide. 12Z soundings at FFC, JAX, and CHS sampled PW values of 1.91", 1.97", and 2.14", respectively. This ample low-level moisture will help support airmass destabilization and moderate to strong buoyancy as temperatures increase into the upper 80s and low 90s this afternoon. Subtle ascent along the southern periphery of broad upper troughing will interact with this unstable and buoyant airmass to support scattered strong to severe thunderstorms this afternoon through early/mid-evening. Vertical shear across the region will be very weak, resulting in an outflow-dominant storm mode, with new development then occurring along these outflows. Water-loaded downbursts will be the primary hazard as these clusters gradually move southeastward over time. ..Mosier/Moore.. 07/10/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1133 AM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025 Valid 101630Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST SD...NORTHEAST NE...AND WESTERN IA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST NY AND MOST OF VT... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of large hail, damaging winds, and perhaps a couple of tornadoes are possible late this afternoon into tonight across parts of the central Great Plains to the Midwest, particularly across the Middle Missouri Valley. Additional severe storms are expected across parts of the Northeast and Southeast. ...Central High Plains through the Central Plains into IA... Recent surface analysis places a low near the NE/CO border, with a moist airmass ahead of it over the central Plains. Satellite imagery also shows a shortwave trough moving through the Great Basin towards the central High Plains. Both of these features are expected to move eastward throughout the day, with the surface low contributing to eventual convective initiation over far southeast SD/northeast NE and northwest IA this afternoon. The shortwave is expected to result in numerous thunderstorms over the high terrain, with these storms then moving eastward into the central High Plains. The thunderstorms that develop near the surface low will encounter a strongly unstable and moderately sheared environment supportive of initial supercells capable of all severe hazards, including very large hail and tornadoes. This activity should quickly grow upscale, with the resulting convective line pushing southeastward into more of northeast NE and western IA. Given ample buoyancy downstream, some significant wind gusts are possible as this line moves eastward/southeastward. Farther west, the thunderstorms moving into the central High Plains will initially be high-based and capable of strong wind gusts as they move into the very deeply mixed airmass downstream. Some amalgamation along cold pools is possible here over time, with the resulting convective line likely moving eastward across south-central NE and central KS. Damaging gusts will be possible as this line moves eastward. ...Mid MS Valley... A well-defined MCV is currently moving across southern MN, with the expectation that it will continue gradually eastward throughout the day. Daytime heating along the southern/southeastern periphery of this vorticity max will likely result in airmass destabilization and moderate buoyancy from eastern IA into southern WI and northern IL this afternoon. Mesoscale ascent attendant to the MCV will interact with this airmass, likely resulting in thunderstorm development. Low to mid-level flow enhanced by the MCV will result in moderate vertical shear and the potential for a few supercells. Given the mesoscale nature of this scenario, overall storm coverage, including the supercell coverage, is uncertain. Any supercells that do develop could result in a threat for all severe hazards, including large hail and a brief tornado. Conditionality of the overall scenario merits only low severe probabilities for now, but higher probabilities maybe needed for the 20Z if trends merit. ...New England and Upper Ohio Valley... A shortwave trough currently is moving through the base of the larger cyclone over central/eastern ON. This shortwave is forecast to continue eastward throughout the day, resulting in broad ascent from the Upper OH Valley into New England. Scattered thunderstorm development is probable during peak afternoon heating, as this wave interacts with moderate buoyancy and vertical shear. A predominantly multicellular mode is anticipated, with damaging winds and isolated hail as the primary risks. A corridor of slightly better low-level moisture is expected over the Champlain Valley vicinity, which could result in both greater storm coverage and stronger, more long-lived updrafts. As a result, there is a small area where higher severe coverage is possible. ...Southeast/Southern Atlantic Seaboard... A very moist airmass is in place across the Southeast and southern Atlantic Seaboard. Recent surface analysis reveals dewpoints in the low to mid 70s areawide. 12Z soundings at FFC, JAX, and CHS sampled PW values of 1.91", 1.97", and 2.14", respectively. This ample low-level moisture will help support airmass destabilization and moderate to strong buoyancy as temperatures increase into the upper 80s and low 90s this afternoon. Subtle ascent along the southern periphery of broad upper troughing will interact with this unstable and buoyant airmass to support scattered strong to severe thunderstorms this afternoon through early/mid-evening. Vertical shear across the region will be very weak, resulting in an outflow-dominant storm mode, with new development then occurring along these outflows. Water-loaded downbursts will be the primary hazard as these clusters gradually move southeastward over time. ..Mosier/Moore.. 07/10/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1133 AM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025 Valid 101630Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST SD...NORTHEAST NE...AND WESTERN IA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST NY AND MOST OF VT... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of large hail, damaging winds, and perhaps a couple of tornadoes are possible late this afternoon into tonight across parts of the central Great Plains to the Midwest, particularly across the Middle Missouri Valley. Additional severe storms are expected across parts of the Northeast and Southeast. ...Central High Plains through the Central Plains into IA... Recent surface analysis places a low near the NE/CO border, with a moist airmass ahead of it over the central Plains. Satellite imagery also shows a shortwave trough moving through the Great Basin towards the central High Plains. Both of these features are expected to move eastward throughout the day, with the surface low contributing to eventual convective initiation over far southeast SD/northeast NE and northwest IA this afternoon. The shortwave is expected to result in numerous thunderstorms over the high terrain, with these storms then moving eastward into the central High Plains. The thunderstorms that develop near the surface low will encounter a strongly unstable and moderately sheared environment supportive of initial supercells capable of all severe hazards, including very large hail and tornadoes. This activity should quickly grow upscale, with the resulting convective line pushing southeastward into more of northeast NE and western IA. Given ample buoyancy downstream, some significant wind gusts are possible as this line moves eastward/southeastward. Farther west, the thunderstorms moving into the central High Plains will initially be high-based and capable of strong wind gusts as they move into the very deeply mixed airmass downstream. Some amalgamation along cold pools is possible here over time, with the resulting convective line likely moving eastward across south-central NE and central KS. Damaging gusts will be possible as this line moves eastward. ...Mid MS Valley... A well-defined MCV is currently moving across southern MN, with the expectation that it will continue gradually eastward throughout the day. Daytime heating along the southern/southeastern periphery of this vorticity max will likely result in airmass destabilization and moderate buoyancy from eastern IA into southern WI and northern IL this afternoon. Mesoscale ascent attendant to the MCV will interact with this airmass, likely resulting in thunderstorm development. Low to mid-level flow enhanced by the MCV will result in moderate vertical shear and the potential for a few supercells. Given the mesoscale nature of this scenario, overall storm coverage, including the supercell coverage, is uncertain. Any supercells that do develop could result in a threat for all severe hazards, including large hail and a brief tornado. Conditionality of the overall scenario merits only low severe probabilities for now, but higher probabilities maybe needed for the 20Z if trends merit. ...New England and Upper Ohio Valley... A shortwave trough currently is moving through the base of the larger cyclone over central/eastern ON. This shortwave is forecast to continue eastward throughout the day, resulting in broad ascent from the Upper OH Valley into New England. Scattered thunderstorm development is probable during peak afternoon heating, as this wave interacts with moderate buoyancy and vertical shear. A predominantly multicellular mode is anticipated, with damaging winds and isolated hail as the primary risks. A corridor of slightly better low-level moisture is expected over the Champlain Valley vicinity, which could result in both greater storm coverage and stronger, more long-lived updrafts. As a result, there is a small area where higher severe coverage is possible. ...Southeast/Southern Atlantic Seaboard... A very moist airmass is in place across the Southeast and southern Atlantic Seaboard. Recent surface analysis reveals dewpoints in the low to mid 70s areawide. 12Z soundings at FFC, JAX, and CHS sampled PW values of 1.91", 1.97", and 2.14", respectively. This ample low-level moisture will help support airmass destabilization and moderate to strong buoyancy as temperatures increase into the upper 80s and low 90s this afternoon. Subtle ascent along the southern periphery of broad upper troughing will interact with this unstable and buoyant airmass to support scattered strong to severe thunderstorms this afternoon through early/mid-evening. Vertical shear across the region will be very weak, resulting in an outflow-dominant storm mode, with new development then occurring along these outflows. Water-loaded downbursts will be the primary hazard as these clusters gradually move southeastward over time. ..Mosier/Moore.. 07/10/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1133 AM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025 Valid 101630Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST SD...NORTHEAST NE...AND WESTERN IA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST NY AND MOST OF VT... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of large hail, damaging winds, and perhaps a couple of tornadoes are possible late this afternoon into tonight across parts of the central Great Plains to the Midwest, particularly across the Middle Missouri Valley. Additional severe storms are expected across parts of the Northeast and Southeast. ...Central High Plains through the Central Plains into IA... Recent surface analysis places a low near the NE/CO border, with a moist airmass ahead of it over the central Plains. Satellite imagery also shows a shortwave trough moving through the Great Basin towards the central High Plains. Both of these features are expected to move eastward throughout the day, with the surface low contributing to eventual convective initiation over far southeast SD/northeast NE and northwest IA this afternoon. The shortwave is expected to result in numerous thunderstorms over the high terrain, with these storms then moving eastward into the central High Plains. The thunderstorms that develop near the surface low will encounter a strongly unstable and moderately sheared environment supportive of initial supercells capable of all severe hazards, including very large hail and tornadoes. This activity should quickly grow upscale, with the resulting convective line pushing southeastward into more of northeast NE and western IA. Given ample buoyancy downstream, some significant wind gusts are possible as this line moves eastward/southeastward. Farther west, the thunderstorms moving into the central High Plains will initially be high-based and capable of strong wind gusts as they move into the very deeply mixed airmass downstream. Some amalgamation along cold pools is possible here over time, with the resulting convective line likely moving eastward across south-central NE and central KS. Damaging gusts will be possible as this line moves eastward. ...Mid MS Valley... A well-defined MCV is currently moving across southern MN, with the expectation that it will continue gradually eastward throughout the day. Daytime heating along the southern/southeastern periphery of this vorticity max will likely result in airmass destabilization and moderate buoyancy from eastern IA into southern WI and northern IL this afternoon. Mesoscale ascent attendant to the MCV will interact with this airmass, likely resulting in thunderstorm development. Low to mid-level flow enhanced by the MCV will result in moderate vertical shear and the potential for a few supercells. Given the mesoscale nature of this scenario, overall storm coverage, including the supercell coverage, is uncertain. Any supercells that do develop could result in a threat for all severe hazards, including large hail and a brief tornado. Conditionality of the overall scenario merits only low severe probabilities for now, but higher probabilities maybe needed for the 20Z if trends merit. ...New England and Upper Ohio Valley... A shortwave trough currently is moving through the base of the larger cyclone over central/eastern ON. This shortwave is forecast to continue eastward throughout the day, resulting in broad ascent from the Upper OH Valley into New England. Scattered thunderstorm development is probable during peak afternoon heating, as this wave interacts with moderate buoyancy and vertical shear. A predominantly multicellular mode is anticipated, with damaging winds and isolated hail as the primary risks. A corridor of slightly better low-level moisture is expected over the Champlain Valley vicinity, which could result in both greater storm coverage and stronger, more long-lived updrafts. As a result, there is a small area where higher severe coverage is possible. ...Southeast/Southern Atlantic Seaboard... A very moist airmass is in place across the Southeast and southern Atlantic Seaboard. Recent surface analysis reveals dewpoints in the low to mid 70s areawide. 12Z soundings at FFC, JAX, and CHS sampled PW values of 1.91", 1.97", and 2.14", respectively. This ample low-level moisture will help support airmass destabilization and moderate to strong buoyancy as temperatures increase into the upper 80s and low 90s this afternoon. Subtle ascent along the southern periphery of broad upper troughing will interact with this unstable and buoyant airmass to support scattered strong to severe thunderstorms this afternoon through early/mid-evening. Vertical shear across the region will be very weak, resulting in an outflow-dominant storm mode, with new development then occurring along these outflows. Water-loaded downbursts will be the primary hazard as these clusters gradually move southeastward over time. ..Mosier/Moore.. 07/10/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1133 AM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025 Valid 101630Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST SD...NORTHEAST NE...AND WESTERN IA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST NY AND MOST OF VT... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of large hail, damaging winds, and perhaps a couple of tornadoes are possible late this afternoon into tonight across parts of the central Great Plains to the Midwest, particularly across the Middle Missouri Valley. Additional severe storms are expected across parts of the Northeast and Southeast. ...Central High Plains through the Central Plains into IA... Recent surface analysis places a low near the NE/CO border, with a moist airmass ahead of it over the central Plains. Satellite imagery also shows a shortwave trough moving through the Great Basin towards the central High Plains. Both of these features are expected to move eastward throughout the day, with the surface low contributing to eventual convective initiation over far southeast SD/northeast NE and northwest IA this afternoon. The shortwave is expected to result in numerous thunderstorms over the high terrain, with these storms then moving eastward into the central High Plains. The thunderstorms that develop near the surface low will encounter a strongly unstable and moderately sheared environment supportive of initial supercells capable of all severe hazards, including very large hail and tornadoes. This activity should quickly grow upscale, with the resulting convective line pushing southeastward into more of northeast NE and western IA. Given ample buoyancy downstream, some significant wind gusts are possible as this line moves eastward/southeastward. Farther west, the thunderstorms moving into the central High Plains will initially be high-based and capable of strong wind gusts as they move into the very deeply mixed airmass downstream. Some amalgamation along cold pools is possible here over time, with the resulting convective line likely moving eastward across south-central NE and central KS. Damaging gusts will be possible as this line moves eastward. ...Mid MS Valley... A well-defined MCV is currently moving across southern MN, with the expectation that it will continue gradually eastward throughout the day. Daytime heating along the southern/southeastern periphery of this vorticity max will likely result in airmass destabilization and moderate buoyancy from eastern IA into southern WI and northern IL this afternoon. Mesoscale ascent attendant to the MCV will interact with this airmass, likely resulting in thunderstorm development. Low to mid-level flow enhanced by the MCV will result in moderate vertical shear and the potential for a few supercells. Given the mesoscale nature of this scenario, overall storm coverage, including the supercell coverage, is uncertain. Any supercells that do develop could result in a threat for all severe hazards, including large hail and a brief tornado. Conditionality of the overall scenario merits only low severe probabilities for now, but higher probabilities maybe needed for the 20Z if trends merit. ...New England and Upper Ohio Valley... A shortwave trough currently is moving through the base of the larger cyclone over central/eastern ON. This shortwave is forecast to continue eastward throughout the day, resulting in broad ascent from the Upper OH Valley into New England. Scattered thunderstorm development is probable during peak afternoon heating, as this wave interacts with moderate buoyancy and vertical shear. A predominantly multicellular mode is anticipated, with damaging winds and isolated hail as the primary risks. A corridor of slightly better low-level moisture is expected over the Champlain Valley vicinity, which could result in both greater storm coverage and stronger, more long-lived updrafts. As a result, there is a small area where higher severe coverage is possible. ...Southeast/Southern Atlantic Seaboard... A very moist airmass is in place across the Southeast and southern Atlantic Seaboard. Recent surface analysis reveals dewpoints in the low to mid 70s areawide. 12Z soundings at FFC, JAX, and CHS sampled PW values of 1.91", 1.97", and 2.14", respectively. This ample low-level moisture will help support airmass destabilization and moderate to strong buoyancy as temperatures increase into the upper 80s and low 90s this afternoon. Subtle ascent along the southern periphery of broad upper troughing will interact with this unstable and buoyant airmass to support scattered strong to severe thunderstorms this afternoon through early/mid-evening. Vertical shear across the region will be very weak, resulting in an outflow-dominant storm mode, with new development then occurring along these outflows. Water-loaded downbursts will be the primary hazard as these clusters gradually move southeastward over time. ..Mosier/Moore.. 07/10/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1133 AM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025 Valid 101630Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST SD...NORTHEAST NE...AND WESTERN IA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST NY AND MOST OF VT... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of large hail, damaging winds, and perhaps a couple of tornadoes are possible late this afternoon into tonight across parts of the central Great Plains to the Midwest, particularly across the Middle Missouri Valley. Additional severe storms are expected across parts of the Northeast and Southeast. ...Central High Plains through the Central Plains into IA... Recent surface analysis places a low near the NE/CO border, with a moist airmass ahead of it over the central Plains. Satellite imagery also shows a shortwave trough moving through the Great Basin towards the central High Plains. Both of these features are expected to move eastward throughout the day, with the surface low contributing to eventual convective initiation over far southeast SD/northeast NE and northwest IA this afternoon. The shortwave is expected to result in numerous thunderstorms over the high terrain, with these storms then moving eastward into the central High Plains. The thunderstorms that develop near the surface low will encounter a strongly unstable and moderately sheared environment supportive of initial supercells capable of all severe hazards, including very large hail and tornadoes. This activity should quickly grow upscale, with the resulting convective line pushing southeastward into more of northeast NE and western IA. Given ample buoyancy downstream, some significant wind gusts are possible as this line moves eastward/southeastward. Farther west, the thunderstorms moving into the central High Plains will initially be high-based and capable of strong wind gusts as they move into the very deeply mixed airmass downstream. Some amalgamation along cold pools is possible here over time, with the resulting convective line likely moving eastward across south-central NE and central KS. Damaging gusts will be possible as this line moves eastward. ...Mid MS Valley... A well-defined MCV is currently moving across southern MN, with the expectation that it will continue gradually eastward throughout the day. Daytime heating along the southern/southeastern periphery of this vorticity max will likely result in airmass destabilization and moderate buoyancy from eastern IA into southern WI and northern IL this afternoon. Mesoscale ascent attendant to the MCV will interact with this airmass, likely resulting in thunderstorm development. Low to mid-level flow enhanced by the MCV will result in moderate vertical shear and the potential for a few supercells. Given the mesoscale nature of this scenario, overall storm coverage, including the supercell coverage, is uncertain. Any supercells that do develop could result in a threat for all severe hazards, including large hail and a brief tornado. Conditionality of the overall scenario merits only low severe probabilities for now, but higher probabilities maybe needed for the 20Z if trends merit. ...New England and Upper Ohio Valley... A shortwave trough currently is moving through the base of the larger cyclone over central/eastern ON. This shortwave is forecast to continue eastward throughout the day, resulting in broad ascent from the Upper OH Valley into New England. Scattered thunderstorm development is probable during peak afternoon heating, as this wave interacts with moderate buoyancy and vertical shear. A predominantly multicellular mode is anticipated, with damaging winds and isolated hail as the primary risks. A corridor of slightly better low-level moisture is expected over the Champlain Valley vicinity, which could result in both greater storm coverage and stronger, more long-lived updrafts. As a result, there is a small area where higher severe coverage is possible. ...Southeast/Southern Atlantic Seaboard... A very moist airmass is in place across the Southeast and southern Atlantic Seaboard. Recent surface analysis reveals dewpoints in the low to mid 70s areawide. 12Z soundings at FFC, JAX, and CHS sampled PW values of 1.91", 1.97", and 2.14", respectively. This ample low-level moisture will help support airmass destabilization and moderate to strong buoyancy as temperatures increase into the upper 80s and low 90s this afternoon. Subtle ascent along the southern periphery of broad upper troughing will interact with this unstable and buoyant airmass to support scattered strong to severe thunderstorms this afternoon through early/mid-evening. Vertical shear across the region will be very weak, resulting in an outflow-dominant storm mode, with new development then occurring along these outflows. Water-loaded downbursts will be the primary hazard as these clusters gradually move southeastward over time. ..Mosier/Moore.. 07/10/2025 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1026 AM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025 Valid 101700Z - 111200Z The previous forecast remains on track, with only minor changes made to the Elevated highlights to reflect the latest guidance consensus. ..Squitieri.. 07/10/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1057 PM CDT Wed Jul 09 2025/ ...Synopsis... A midlevel trough will advance eastward from the Great Basin into the central Rockies during the day. In the base of the trough, enhanced deep-layer westerly flow will overspread a diurnally deepening boundary layer across the Greater Four Corners region during the afternoon. As a result, an expansive overlap of 10-15 percent RH and 15-20 mph sustained westerly surface winds will yield elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions across the region. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1026 AM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025 Valid 101700Z - 111200Z The previous forecast remains on track, with only minor changes made to the Elevated highlights to reflect the latest guidance consensus. ..Squitieri.. 07/10/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1057 PM CDT Wed Jul 09 2025/ ...Synopsis... A midlevel trough will advance eastward from the Great Basin into the central Rockies during the day. In the base of the trough, enhanced deep-layer westerly flow will overspread a diurnally deepening boundary layer across the Greater Four Corners region during the afternoon. As a result, an expansive overlap of 10-15 percent RH and 15-20 mph sustained westerly surface winds will yield elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions across the region. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1026 AM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025 Valid 101700Z - 111200Z The previous forecast remains on track, with only minor changes made to the Elevated highlights to reflect the latest guidance consensus. ..Squitieri.. 07/10/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1057 PM CDT Wed Jul 09 2025/ ...Synopsis... A midlevel trough will advance eastward from the Great Basin into the central Rockies during the day. In the base of the trough, enhanced deep-layer westerly flow will overspread a diurnally deepening boundary layer across the Greater Four Corners region during the afternoon. As a result, an expansive overlap of 10-15 percent RH and 15-20 mph sustained westerly surface winds will yield elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions across the region. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1026 AM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025 Valid 101700Z - 111200Z The previous forecast remains on track, with only minor changes made to the Elevated highlights to reflect the latest guidance consensus. ..Squitieri.. 07/10/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1057 PM CDT Wed Jul 09 2025/ ...Synopsis... A midlevel trough will advance eastward from the Great Basin into the central Rockies during the day. In the base of the trough, enhanced deep-layer westerly flow will overspread a diurnally deepening boundary layer across the Greater Four Corners region during the afternoon. As a result, an expansive overlap of 10-15 percent RH and 15-20 mph sustained westerly surface winds will yield elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions across the region. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1026 AM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025 Valid 101700Z - 111200Z The previous forecast remains on track, with only minor changes made to the Elevated highlights to reflect the latest guidance consensus. ..Squitieri.. 07/10/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1057 PM CDT Wed Jul 09 2025/ ...Synopsis... A midlevel trough will advance eastward from the Great Basin into the central Rockies during the day. In the base of the trough, enhanced deep-layer westerly flow will overspread a diurnally deepening boundary layer across the Greater Four Corners region during the afternoon. As a result, an expansive overlap of 10-15 percent RH and 15-20 mph sustained westerly surface winds will yield elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions across the region. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1026 AM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025 Valid 101700Z - 111200Z The previous forecast remains on track, with only minor changes made to the Elevated highlights to reflect the latest guidance consensus. ..Squitieri.. 07/10/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1057 PM CDT Wed Jul 09 2025/ ...Synopsis... A midlevel trough will advance eastward from the Great Basin into the central Rockies during the day. In the base of the trough, enhanced deep-layer westerly flow will overspread a diurnally deepening boundary layer across the Greater Four Corners region during the afternoon. As a result, an expansive overlap of 10-15 percent RH and 15-20 mph sustained westerly surface winds will yield elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions across the region. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1026 AM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025 Valid 101700Z - 111200Z The previous forecast remains on track, with only minor changes made to the Elevated highlights to reflect the latest guidance consensus. ..Squitieri.. 07/10/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1057 PM CDT Wed Jul 09 2025/ ...Synopsis... A midlevel trough will advance eastward from the Great Basin into the central Rockies during the day. In the base of the trough, enhanced deep-layer westerly flow will overspread a diurnally deepening boundary layer across the Greater Four Corners region during the afternoon. As a result, an expansive overlap of 10-15 percent RH and 15-20 mph sustained westerly surface winds will yield elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions across the region. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1026 AM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025 Valid 101700Z - 111200Z The previous forecast remains on track, with only minor changes made to the Elevated highlights to reflect the latest guidance consensus. ..Squitieri.. 07/10/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1057 PM CDT Wed Jul 09 2025/ ...Synopsis... A midlevel trough will advance eastward from the Great Basin into the central Rockies during the day. In the base of the trough, enhanced deep-layer westerly flow will overspread a diurnally deepening boundary layer across the Greater Four Corners region during the afternoon. As a result, an expansive overlap of 10-15 percent RH and 15-20 mph sustained westerly surface winds will yield elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions across the region. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1026 AM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025 Valid 101700Z - 111200Z The previous forecast remains on track, with only minor changes made to the Elevated highlights to reflect the latest guidance consensus. ..Squitieri.. 07/10/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1057 PM CDT Wed Jul 09 2025/ ...Synopsis... A midlevel trough will advance eastward from the Great Basin into the central Rockies during the day. In the base of the trough, enhanced deep-layer westerly flow will overspread a diurnally deepening boundary layer across the Greater Four Corners region during the afternoon. As a result, an expansive overlap of 10-15 percent RH and 15-20 mph sustained westerly surface winds will yield elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions across the region. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1026 AM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025 Valid 101700Z - 111200Z The previous forecast remains on track, with only minor changes made to the Elevated highlights to reflect the latest guidance consensus. ..Squitieri.. 07/10/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1057 PM CDT Wed Jul 09 2025/ ...Synopsis... A midlevel trough will advance eastward from the Great Basin into the central Rockies during the day. In the base of the trough, enhanced deep-layer westerly flow will overspread a diurnally deepening boundary layer across the Greater Four Corners region during the afternoon. As a result, an expansive overlap of 10-15 percent RH and 15-20 mph sustained westerly surface winds will yield elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions across the region. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1026 AM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025 Valid 101700Z - 111200Z The previous forecast remains on track, with only minor changes made to the Elevated highlights to reflect the latest guidance consensus. ..Squitieri.. 07/10/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1057 PM CDT Wed Jul 09 2025/ ...Synopsis... A midlevel trough will advance eastward from the Great Basin into the central Rockies during the day. In the base of the trough, enhanced deep-layer westerly flow will overspread a diurnally deepening boundary layer across the Greater Four Corners region during the afternoon. As a result, an expansive overlap of 10-15 percent RH and 15-20 mph sustained westerly surface winds will yield elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions across the region. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0759 AM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025 Valid 101300Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of large hail, damaging winds, and perhaps a couple of tornadoes are possible late this afternoon into tonight across parts of the central Great Plains to the Midwest. Additional severe storms are expected across parts of the Northeast and Southeast. ...Central Plains to Midwest... A complex scenario exists regionally owing to post-MCS influences including MCV development and convective overturning, at least temporarily. For one, there does appear at least a somewhat consistent signal with various convection-allowing guidance that an MCV across southern Minnesota, and its residual enhanced wind field, could influence strong/severe thunderstorm development later today, potentially including parts of Iowa/southeast Minnesota into southern Wisconsin and northern Illinois. Otherwise, in advance of the digging upstream troughing, models indicate that a modest belt of southwesterly low-level flow (including 20-30+ kt in the 850-700 mb layer) will generally persist through the day east of the lee surface trough, from the Texas Panhandle/South Plains into the middle Missouri Valley. It appears that this will coincide with a corridor of stronger heating/deeper boundary-layer mixing across the higher plains, where thunderstorm activity initiating during the late afternoon may pose a risk for damaging wind gusts. Within the more moist low-level environment across eastern Nebraska into western Iowa, the wind fields, aided by veering with height, might become conducive for supercells, in the presence of sizable CAPE, before forcing for ascent associated with the approaching mid-level trough tends to support upscale-growing clusters this evening. ...New England and Upper Ohio Valley... A mid-level trough will continue to shift eastward over Quebec today, with the base of the trough and moderately strong cyclonic flow aloft overspreading northern New York and northern New England. Models indicate that scattered thunderstorm development is probable during peak afternoon heating, in the presence of moderate CAPE (1000-2000 J/kg) and shear enhanced at least somewhat by a belt of 20-30 kt westerly mid-level flow. Damaging winds and some hail will be possible regionally, but in particular across northeast New York and Vermont where a more favorable combination of instability/shear should exist near a weak surface wave/warm front. ...Southeast/Southern Atlantic Seaboard... In the presence of a moist airmass, and aided by forcing for ascent associated with subtle low-amplitude mid-level perturbations, scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon through early/mid-evening. Several upscale-growing linear clusters may evolve in the presence of moderate buoyancy and modest-strength westerlies. Microbursts/storms capable of wind damage will be the primary hazard regionally. ..Guyer/Dean.. 07/10/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0759 AM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025 Valid 101300Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of large hail, damaging winds, and perhaps a couple of tornadoes are possible late this afternoon into tonight across parts of the central Great Plains to the Midwest. Additional severe storms are expected across parts of the Northeast and Southeast. ...Central Plains to Midwest... A complex scenario exists regionally owing to post-MCS influences including MCV development and convective overturning, at least temporarily. For one, there does appear at least a somewhat consistent signal with various convection-allowing guidance that an MCV across southern Minnesota, and its residual enhanced wind field, could influence strong/severe thunderstorm development later today, potentially including parts of Iowa/southeast Minnesota into southern Wisconsin and northern Illinois. Otherwise, in advance of the digging upstream troughing, models indicate that a modest belt of southwesterly low-level flow (including 20-30+ kt in the 850-700 mb layer) will generally persist through the day east of the lee surface trough, from the Texas Panhandle/South Plains into the middle Missouri Valley. It appears that this will coincide with a corridor of stronger heating/deeper boundary-layer mixing across the higher plains, where thunderstorm activity initiating during the late afternoon may pose a risk for damaging wind gusts. Within the more moist low-level environment across eastern Nebraska into western Iowa, the wind fields, aided by veering with height, might become conducive for supercells, in the presence of sizable CAPE, before forcing for ascent associated with the approaching mid-level trough tends to support upscale-growing clusters this evening. ...New England and Upper Ohio Valley... A mid-level trough will continue to shift eastward over Quebec today, with the base of the trough and moderately strong cyclonic flow aloft overspreading northern New York and northern New England. Models indicate that scattered thunderstorm development is probable during peak afternoon heating, in the presence of moderate CAPE (1000-2000 J/kg) and shear enhanced at least somewhat by a belt of 20-30 kt westerly mid-level flow. Damaging winds and some hail will be possible regionally, but in particular across northeast New York and Vermont where a more favorable combination of instability/shear should exist near a weak surface wave/warm front. ...Southeast/Southern Atlantic Seaboard... In the presence of a moist airmass, and aided by forcing for ascent associated with subtle low-amplitude mid-level perturbations, scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon through early/mid-evening. Several upscale-growing linear clusters may evolve in the presence of moderate buoyancy and modest-strength westerlies. Microbursts/storms capable of wind damage will be the primary hazard regionally. ..Guyer/Dean.. 07/10/2025 Read more