Severe Storms

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0322 AM CDT Sun Aug 18 2019 Valid 211200Z - 261200Z ...DISCUSSION... On Wednesday/D4, an unstable air mass will remain in place from the mid MS Valley across the OH Valley as an upper trough moves across the Great Lakes and into the Northeast. Cooler and drier air will gradually spread southeastward across this region behind a cold front, roughly oriented east-west north of the OH River by late afternoon. Scattered storms are likely within this zone, and a few storms could be severe with damaging winds especially from OH eastward to the coast in closer proximity to the stronger shear. Given the likelihood of ongoing storms Wednesday morning, predictability is currently too low to denote a 15% or greater corridor, but upgrades are possible in later outlooks. To the west, another corridor of storms is likely from the central Plains to the mid MS Valley, beneath weaker winds aloft and along a stationary front and/or outflow boundaries, most likely from KS into MO. At least marginal severe storms will be possible during the day. The upper trough will move across the Northeast on Thursday/D5, providing stable conditions across the Great Lakes and OH Valley. This will result in lax flow over much of the CONUS until another trough amplification occurs during the Saturday/D7 and Sunday/D8 time frame, with strong northwest flow affecting the northern Rockies/Plains, Upper MS Valley and Great Lakes. Southerly winds will return to the Plains as high pressure moves from the Great Lakes to the East Coast, with a plume of 65-70 F surface dewpoints likely across the Plains and as far north as the Dakotas and MN. Predictability is certainly too low for this scenario, but severe storms may be possible over the northern Plains at that time. Read more

MD 1784 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR FAR NORTHEAST KANSAS...NORTHWEST MISSOURI...AND SOUTHERN IOWA
Mesoscale Discussion 1784 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0245 AM CDT Sun Aug 18 2019 Areas affected...far northeast Kansas...northwest Missouri...and southern Iowa Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 180745Z - 180945Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorms have developed across northeast Kansas and northwest Missouri this morning. These thunderstorms will be capable of hail and gusty winds. A watch is not currently expected, but conditions will be monitored. DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms have developed this morning across northeast Kansas and northwest Missouri, likely in response to ascent stemming from the ageostrophic mass response to the thunderstorms across central Kansas. This is suggested by broad region of surface pressure falls the last few hours. The airmass here is moderately to very unstable with most-unstable CAPE values around 2000-3000 J/kg. Deep-layer shear is sufficient for promoting thunderstorm updraft/downdraft organization, thus a severe hail or wind threat cannot be ruled out this morning. One negative for a more widespread severe event will be the expanding precipitation shield from the mesoscale convective system to the southwest. This may act to limit the overall instability available locally to thunderstorm updrafts, resulting in a more isolated/episodic severe potential, rather than a sustained one. Given the uncertainty, the need for a watch is unclear. Presently a watch is currently not expected, but conditions will continue to be maintained. ..Marsh/Edwards.. 08/18/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DVN...DMX...EAX...TOP... LAT...LON 38569543 39699548 41669395 41159148 38589398 38569543 Read more

WW 0596 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0596 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0237 AM CDT Sun Aug 18 2019 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER ILLINOIS...EASTERN MISSOURI AND WESTERN INDIANA...AND ACROSS MUCH OF NEBRASKA... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms with damaging winds and hail are possible over Illinois and parts of surrounding states, and over much of Nebraska. ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough will pivot southeastward across MB and ON, with 30-40 kt midlevel winds across the Upper MS Valley and Great Lakes. Heights will gradually lower well ahead of this feature, from the mid MO Valley across the OH Valley and toward the Mid Atlantic by Wed morning. Cool temperatures aloft for this time of year with -10 C at 500 mb will extend as far south as KS, MO, and KY. Meanwhile, a moist and very unstable air mass will remain over a large part of the central Plains, Midwest, and OH Valley, conditionally favoring severe storms. ...IL...eastern MO...western IN... Extreme instability is forecast to develop with 700-500 lapse rates around 8 C/km, and mid 70s F surface dewpoints. Meanwhile, west-northwest mean deep-layer winds will increase to 30-35 kt, with lightly veering winds in the low-levels. Storms may be ongoing early in the day over parts of IA, but will expand in coverage into IL by midday as the air mass will already be uncapped. A forward propagating MCS is likely, capable of destructive winds. Models are not in complete agreement with this scenario due to weak forcing, but such extreme instability with steep lapse rates, high precipitable water and good flow aloft will conditionally favor damaging winds, perhaps widespread. Further categorical upgrades are possible in later outlooks. ...Much of NE... Surface winds will back to southeasterly during the day, which will maintain 70s F dewpoints. Capping will be an issue over eastern portions of the state, but western parts of the state as well as eastern WY will become uncapped by late afternoon, where initiation will occur. Large to extreme instability with weak but veering winds with height suggest brief supercells with eventual mergers into bowing segments. Both large hail and damaging winds will be possible, and a brief tornado cannot be ruled out in the early stages of development. Additional storms are expected eastward across the state by evening with low-level warm advection. ...KY and OH eastward into MD... Southwesterly low-level winds will maintain a high theta-e air mass from the OH Valley to the Mid Atlantic, beneath cooling temperatures aloft. Heating will result in an uncapped air mass by afternoon, with a weak surface trough providing a focus for scattered storms within the theta-e plume. Shear will remain weak especially over eastern areas, but pulse and/or multicell storms are possible, producing locally damaging winds. If later forecasts confidently suggest more concentrated areas of storms, parts of the region could be upgraded to a Slight Risk for wind. ..Jewell.. 08/18/2019 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0237 AM CDT Sun Aug 18 2019 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER ILLINOIS...EASTERN MISSOURI AND WESTERN INDIANA...AND ACROSS MUCH OF NEBRASKA... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms with damaging winds and hail are possible over Illinois and parts of surrounding states, and over much of Nebraska. ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough will pivot southeastward across MB and ON, with 30-40 kt midlevel winds across the Upper MS Valley and Great Lakes. Heights will gradually lower well ahead of this feature, from the mid MO Valley across the OH Valley and toward the Mid Atlantic by Wed morning. Cool temperatures aloft for this time of year with -10 C at 500 mb will extend as far south as KS, MO, and KY. Meanwhile, a moist and very unstable air mass will remain over a large part of the central Plains, Midwest, and OH Valley, conditionally favoring severe storms. ...IL...eastern MO...western IN... Extreme instability is forecast to develop with 700-500 lapse rates around 8 C/km, and mid 70s F surface dewpoints. Meanwhile, west-northwest mean deep-layer winds will increase to 30-35 kt, with lightly veering winds in the low-levels. Storms may be ongoing early in the day over parts of IA, but will expand in coverage into IL by midday as the air mass will already be uncapped. A forward propagating MCS is likely, capable of destructive winds. Models are not in complete agreement with this scenario due to weak forcing, but such extreme instability with steep lapse rates, high precipitable water and good flow aloft will conditionally favor damaging winds, perhaps widespread. Further categorical upgrades are possible in later outlooks. ...Much of NE... Surface winds will back to southeasterly during the day, which will maintain 70s F dewpoints. Capping will be an issue over eastern portions of the state, but western parts of the state as well as eastern WY will become uncapped by late afternoon, where initiation will occur. Large to extreme instability with weak but veering winds with height suggest brief supercells with eventual mergers into bowing segments. Both large hail and damaging winds will be possible, and a brief tornado cannot be ruled out in the early stages of development. Additional storms are expected eastward across the state by evening with low-level warm advection. ...KY and OH eastward into MD... Southwesterly low-level winds will maintain a high theta-e air mass from the OH Valley to the Mid Atlantic, beneath cooling temperatures aloft. Heating will result in an uncapped air mass by afternoon, with a weak surface trough providing a focus for scattered storms within the theta-e plume. Shear will remain weak especially over eastern areas, but pulse and/or multicell storms are possible, producing locally damaging winds. If later forecasts confidently suggest more concentrated areas of storms, parts of the region could be upgraded to a Slight Risk for wind. ..Jewell.. 08/18/2019 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0237 AM CDT Sun Aug 18 2019 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER ILLINOIS...EASTERN MISSOURI AND WESTERN INDIANA...AND ACROSS MUCH OF NEBRASKA... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms with damaging winds and hail are possible over Illinois and parts of surrounding states, and over much of Nebraska. ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough will pivot southeastward across MB and ON, with 30-40 kt midlevel winds across the Upper MS Valley and Great Lakes. Heights will gradually lower well ahead of this feature, from the mid MO Valley across the OH Valley and toward the Mid Atlantic by Wed morning. Cool temperatures aloft for this time of year with -10 C at 500 mb will extend as far south as KS, MO, and KY. Meanwhile, a moist and very unstable air mass will remain over a large part of the central Plains, Midwest, and OH Valley, conditionally favoring severe storms. ...IL...eastern MO...western IN... Extreme instability is forecast to develop with 700-500 lapse rates around 8 C/km, and mid 70s F surface dewpoints. Meanwhile, west-northwest mean deep-layer winds will increase to 30-35 kt, with lightly veering winds in the low-levels. Storms may be ongoing early in the day over parts of IA, but will expand in coverage into IL by midday as the air mass will already be uncapped. A forward propagating MCS is likely, capable of destructive winds. Models are not in complete agreement with this scenario due to weak forcing, but such extreme instability with steep lapse rates, high precipitable water and good flow aloft will conditionally favor damaging winds, perhaps widespread. Further categorical upgrades are possible in later outlooks. ...Much of NE... Surface winds will back to southeasterly during the day, which will maintain 70s F dewpoints. Capping will be an issue over eastern portions of the state, but western parts of the state as well as eastern WY will become uncapped by late afternoon, where initiation will occur. Large to extreme instability with weak but veering winds with height suggest brief supercells with eventual mergers into bowing segments. Both large hail and damaging winds will be possible, and a brief tornado cannot be ruled out in the early stages of development. Additional storms are expected eastward across the state by evening with low-level warm advection. ...KY and OH eastward into MD... Southwesterly low-level winds will maintain a high theta-e air mass from the OH Valley to the Mid Atlantic, beneath cooling temperatures aloft. Heating will result in an uncapped air mass by afternoon, with a weak surface trough providing a focus for scattered storms within the theta-e plume. Shear will remain weak especially over eastern areas, but pulse and/or multicell storms are possible, producing locally damaging winds. If later forecasts confidently suggest more concentrated areas of storms, parts of the region could be upgraded to a Slight Risk for wind. ..Jewell.. 08/18/2019 Read more

WW 0594 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 594 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SW HLC TO 25 ENE RSL TO 10 ESE SLN TO 40 SE SLN TO 15 NW EMP. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1783. ..MARSH..08/18/19 ATTN...WFO...ICT...TOP...DDC...GID... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 594 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC003-009-015-017-019-031-035-049-051-053-073-079-095-111-113- 115-135-145-155-159-165-167-169-173-185-191-195-180740- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANDERSON BARTON BUTLER CHASE CHAUTAUQUA COFFEY COWLEY ELK ELLIS ELLSWORTH GREENWOOD HARVEY KINGMAN LYON MCPHERSON MARION NESS PAWNEE RENO RICE RUSH RUSSELL SALINE SEDGWICK STAFFORD SUMNER TREGO THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0594 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 594 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SW HLC TO 25 ENE RSL TO 10 ESE SLN TO 40 SE SLN TO 15 NW EMP. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1783. ..MARSH..08/18/19 ATTN...WFO...ICT...TOP...DDC...GID... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 594 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC003-009-015-017-019-031-035-049-051-053-073-079-095-111-113- 115-135-145-155-159-165-167-169-173-185-191-195-180740- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANDERSON BARTON BUTLER CHASE CHAUTAUQUA COFFEY COWLEY ELK ELLIS ELLSWORTH GREENWOOD HARVEY KINGMAN LYON MCPHERSON MARION NESS PAWNEE RENO RICE RUSH RUSSELL SALINE SEDGWICK STAFFORD SUMNER TREGO THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0594 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 594 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SW HLC TO 25 ENE RSL TO 10 ESE SLN TO 40 SE SLN TO 15 NW EMP. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1783. ..MARSH..08/18/19 ATTN...WFO...ICT...TOP...DDC...GID... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 594 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC003-009-015-017-019-031-035-049-051-053-073-079-095-111-113- 115-135-145-155-159-165-167-169-173-185-191-195-180740- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANDERSON BARTON BUTLER CHASE CHAUTAUQUA COFFEY COWLEY ELK ELLIS ELLSWORTH GREENWOOD HARVEY KINGMAN LYON MCPHERSON MARION NESS PAWNEE RENO RICE RUSH RUSSELL SALINE SEDGWICK STAFFORD SUMNER TREGO THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0594 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 594 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SW HLC TO 25 ENE RSL TO 10 ESE SLN TO 40 SE SLN TO 15 NW EMP. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1783. ..MARSH..08/18/19 ATTN...WFO...ICT...TOP...DDC...GID... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 594 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC003-009-015-017-019-031-035-049-051-053-073-079-095-111-113- 115-135-145-155-159-165-167-169-173-185-191-195-180740- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANDERSON BARTON BUTLER CHASE CHAUTAUQUA COFFEY COWLEY ELK ELLIS ELLSWORTH GREENWOOD HARVEY KINGMAN LYON MCPHERSON MARION NESS PAWNEE RENO RICE RUSH RUSSELL SALINE SEDGWICK STAFFORD SUMNER TREGO THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 594 SEVERE TSTM KS 180125Z - 180800Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 594 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 825 PM CDT Sat Aug 17 2019 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Kansas * Effective this Saturday night and Sunday morning from 825 PM until 300 AM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...A small but well-organized cluster of storms across northwest Kansas early this evening will continue east-southeastward with additional storms expected to develop near/ahead of it through late evening. Large hail and locally damaging winds can initially be expected with this activity, with a more certain potential for damaging winds given the possibility of an expanding/organizing linear cluster across central Kansas. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 55 statute miles north and south of a line from 35 miles south southwest of Hill City KS to 35 miles south southeast of Manhattan KS. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 590...WW 592...WW 593... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 600. Mean storm motion vector 29025. ...Guyer Read more

MD 1783 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 594...595... FOR KANSAS...NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA...SOUTHWEST MISSOURI...AND EXTREME NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
Mesoscale Discussion 1783 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0142 AM CDT Sun Aug 18 2019 Areas affected...Kansas...northeast Oklahoma...southwest Missouri...and extreme northwest Arkansas Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 594...595... Valid 180642Z - 180815Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 594, 595 continues. SUMMARY...Thunderstorms continue across much of Kansas this morning. The leading edge of the thunderstorms continues to push toward northeast Oklahoma and southwest Missouri. Gusty thunderstorm winds and hail will be the primary severe threat with these storms. A new watch is being considered for portions of northeast Oklahoma and southwest Missouri. DISCUSSION...Another round of thunderstorms is ongoing across much of Kansas this morning. The convection has organized itself into another "bow and arrow" mesoscale convective system (MCS). The leading edge of this MCS (the bow) is quickly moving southeast toward far southeast Kansas, northeast Oklahoma, and southwest Missouri. The environment along and ahead of this bow is characterized by deep-layer shear on the order of 40 knots and most-unstable CAPE values around 2000-2500 J/kg. Additionally, mixed-layer convective inhibition actually weakens the farther east this MCS moves. Thus a continuation of severe potential in areas outside of Severe Thunderstorm Watch #594 is possible. As such, a new watch is being considered. Upstream from the bow, the "arrow" thunderstorms across central Kansas will continue within a moderately unstable and sufficiently sheared airmass to continue the potential for hail and gusty winds for at least another few hours. Therefore an extension in time of Severe Thunderstorm Watch #584 may be needed. ..Marsh.. 08/18/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT... LAT...LON 37339724 38569607 37429348 36099474 37339724 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0129 AM CDT Sun Aug 18 2019 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Upper-level ridging will continue to strengthen and amplify over the western CONUS tomorrow. Much of the Intermountain West will remain hot/dry, and large-scale flow will be relatively weak across the region. A weak mid-level shortwave trough is forecast to move over the northern Rockies during the day, which could help initiate isolated dry thunderstorms across southwest Montana/vicinity. However, with heights generally rising across the region and forecast relatively dry (precipitable water values of 0.4-0.6") and stable conditions (ML/MUCAPE < 250 J/kg) conditions, an area was not introduced. ..Nauslar.. 08/18/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0129 AM CDT Sun Aug 18 2019 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Upper-level ridging will continue to strengthen and amplify over the western CONUS tomorrow. Much of the Intermountain West will remain hot/dry, and large-scale flow will be relatively weak across the region. A weak mid-level shortwave trough is forecast to move over the northern Rockies during the day, which could help initiate isolated dry thunderstorms across southwest Montana/vicinity. However, with heights generally rising across the region and forecast relatively dry (precipitable water values of 0.4-0.6") and stable conditions (ML/MUCAPE < 250 J/kg) conditions, an area was not introduced. ..Nauslar.. 08/18/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0129 AM CDT Sun Aug 18 2019 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Upper-level ridging will continue to strengthen and amplify over the western CONUS tomorrow. Much of the Intermountain West will remain hot/dry, and large-scale flow will be relatively weak across the region. A weak mid-level shortwave trough is forecast to move over the northern Rockies during the day, which could help initiate isolated dry thunderstorms across southwest Montana/vicinity. However, with heights generally rising across the region and forecast relatively dry (precipitable water values of 0.4-0.6") and stable conditions (ML/MUCAPE < 250 J/kg) conditions, an area was not introduced. ..Nauslar.. 08/18/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0129 AM CDT Sun Aug 18 2019 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Upper-level ridging will continue to strengthen and amplify over the western CONUS tomorrow. Much of the Intermountain West will remain hot/dry, and large-scale flow will be relatively weak across the region. A weak mid-level shortwave trough is forecast to move over the northern Rockies during the day, which could help initiate isolated dry thunderstorms across southwest Montana/vicinity. However, with heights generally rising across the region and forecast relatively dry (precipitable water values of 0.4-0.6") and stable conditions (ML/MUCAPE < 250 J/kg) conditions, an area was not introduced. ..Nauslar.. 08/18/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0116 AM CDT Sun Aug 18 2019 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...Synopsis... Upper-level ridging will amplify over the western CONUS as an upper-level shortwave trough moves over the northern Plains and Great Lakes. Mid-level 25-50 knot westerly flow will remain over the northern Intermountain West with hot/dry conditions across much of the Intermountain West. Elevated conditions (westerly sustained surface winds of 15-20 mph, RH values of 10-20%) will develop from southern Idaho into southern/central Wyoming and northwest Colorado/northeast Utah this afternoon/evening. This is the fourth consecutive day of dry/windy conditions across this area, which will continue to cure fuels with ERCs now mostly in the 70-90th percentiles. Locally elevated conditions (southerly winds of 10-20 mph, RH values of 8-15%) are likely to develop this afternoon/evening across northwest Arizona into southeast Nevada/southwest Utah. While these conditions are relatively common for this area and time of year, dry fuels and ongoing fire activity in the area warranted a mention. ..Nauslar.. 08/18/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0116 AM CDT Sun Aug 18 2019 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...Synopsis... Upper-level ridging will amplify over the western CONUS as an upper-level shortwave trough moves over the northern Plains and Great Lakes. Mid-level 25-50 knot westerly flow will remain over the northern Intermountain West with hot/dry conditions across much of the Intermountain West. Elevated conditions (westerly sustained surface winds of 15-20 mph, RH values of 10-20%) will develop from southern Idaho into southern/central Wyoming and northwest Colorado/northeast Utah this afternoon/evening. This is the fourth consecutive day of dry/windy conditions across this area, which will continue to cure fuels with ERCs now mostly in the 70-90th percentiles. Locally elevated conditions (southerly winds of 10-20 mph, RH values of 8-15%) are likely to develop this afternoon/evening across northwest Arizona into southeast Nevada/southwest Utah. While these conditions are relatively common for this area and time of year, dry fuels and ongoing fire activity in the area warranted a mention. ..Nauslar.. 08/18/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0116 AM CDT Sun Aug 18 2019 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...Synopsis... Upper-level ridging will amplify over the western CONUS as an upper-level shortwave trough moves over the northern Plains and Great Lakes. Mid-level 25-50 knot westerly flow will remain over the northern Intermountain West with hot/dry conditions across much of the Intermountain West. Elevated conditions (westerly sustained surface winds of 15-20 mph, RH values of 10-20%) will develop from southern Idaho into southern/central Wyoming and northwest Colorado/northeast Utah this afternoon/evening. This is the fourth consecutive day of dry/windy conditions across this area, which will continue to cure fuels with ERCs now mostly in the 70-90th percentiles. Locally elevated conditions (southerly winds of 10-20 mph, RH values of 8-15%) are likely to develop this afternoon/evening across northwest Arizona into southeast Nevada/southwest Utah. While these conditions are relatively common for this area and time of year, dry fuels and ongoing fire activity in the area warranted a mention. ..Nauslar.. 08/18/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1200 AM CDT Sun Aug 18 2019 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms are possible over parts of the northern Plains Monday evening and overnight. ...Synopsis... A negative-tilt shortwave trough will quickly eject northeast across Quebec, resulting in rising heights over the Great Lakes during the day. A brief period of lift will occur over northern parts of the northeastern states, where weak instability will develop. Overnight and to the west, subtle height falls will occur over the northern Plains and Upper MS Valley, on the southern fringe of a shortwave trough over MB. Here, a cold front will move into the central Dakotas by 00Z, with mid 60s F dewpoints spreading northward ahead of it aiding destabilization and supporting at least isolated storms. To the south, strong instability will once again develop over the central Plains, but will be capped for most of the period. ...Northern Plains... Strong heating will occur over ND, northern MN, and western SD along and west of the wind shift. The air mass over the moist sector will be capped for much of the day, but a narrow zone of uncapped air should develop along the front. Isolated late afternoon and evening storms are possible with marginal wind or hail. Overnight, elevated instability will develop from NE/IA into MN, and sporadic storms cannot be ruled out from northeast KS into IA. However, the probability of severe in those areas appears low prior to 12Z Tuesday. ...Northern NY into ME... Low-level winds will continue to veer during the day as the shortwave trough ejects east/northeast over the region. Forecast soundings show sufficient instability for thunderstorms during the day, and modest deep shear, but midlevel subsidence will likely mitigate overall storm coverage and intensity. As such, severe weather is not currently forecast, but a few strong storms cannot be ruled out with gusty winds and small hail. ...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD... Tornado: 2% - Marginal Wind: 5% - Marginal Hail: 5% - Marginal ..Jewell.. 08/18/2019 Read more