Severe Storms

WW 0609 Status Updates
340- STATUS REPORT ON WW 609 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNE NEL TO 5 W EWR TO 25 NNW EWR TO 30 SSE MSV TO 20 NE MSV TO 35 N POU TO 10 WNW PSF TO 30 W EEN TO 25 WSW LCI. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1829 ..NAUSLAR..08/21/19 ATTN...WFO...OKX...BOX...ALY...GYX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 609 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS CTC001-003-005-007-009-011-013-015-212340- CT . CONNECTICUT COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE FAIRFIELD HARTFORD LITCHFIELD MIDDLESEX NEW HAVEN NEW LONDON TOLLAND WINDHAM MEC031-212340- ME . MAINE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE YORK MAC001-003-005-007-009-011-013-015-017-019-021-023-025-027- 212340- Read more

WW 609 SEVERE TSTM CT MA ME NH NJ NY RI VT CW 211750Z - 220100Z
0- URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 609 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 150 PM EDT Wed Aug 21 2019 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Connecticut Massachusetts Far southern Maine Southern New Hampshire Northern New Jersey Southeast New York Rhode Island Southern Vermont Coastal Waters * Effective this Wednesday afternoon and evening from 150 PM until 900 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Storms will continue to develop and intensify particularly across far eastern New York and southern New England, near and south of a warm front that will continue to spread slowly northward. Some supercells with a hail/tornado risk aside from damaging winds are most probable across southern New England, with damaging winds otherwise expected with the strongest storms. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 85 statute miles north and south of a line from 30 miles west northwest of Poughkeepsie NY to 40 miles east of Boston MA. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 24025. ...Guyer Read more

MD 1829 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 609... FOR PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND
Mesoscale Discussion 1829 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0520 PM CDT Wed Aug 21 2019 Areas affected...portions of New England Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 609... Valid 212220Z - 220015Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 609 continues. SUMMARY...The severe threat continues across much of WW609 with severe wind as the primary threat. Large hail and a brief, weak tornado or two are possible as well. DISCUSSION...Storms continue to move and develop eastward across New England ahead of an upper-level shortwave trough. A mixed storm mode is evident with a broken line of storms stretching from southwest Maine to south of Albany along a surface pressure trough and discrete cells developing within the warm sector ahead of the line. MLCAPE 1000-1500 J/kg and 30-40 knots of effective bulk shear will support some weaker supercells and a few of those have been observed across New England in the last hour. While damaging wind is the main severe threat, marginally large hail and a brief, weak tornado are possible with any of the stronger, especially discrete, cells. Areas with more of a easterly component in the surface wind will increase hodograph curvature/low-level SRH and be the favored location for these stronger storms. The severe threat will diminish from west to east as storms moves eastward into the evening. ..Nauslar/Grams.. 08/21/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM... LAT...LON 40567452 41907438 42657348 43327210 43687143 43747075 43517023 42937018 42177022 41647024 41367036 41167058 41047099 40607338 40467409 40567452 Read more

MD 1828 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA
Mesoscale Discussion 1828 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0516 PM CDT Wed Aug 21 2019 Areas affected...central North Carolina Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 212216Z - 220015Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...Storms may produce a few instances of strong but mostly sub-severe wind gusts as they move through central North Carolina next couple of hours. DISCUSSION...Storms that developed over the mountains of western NC earlier this afternoon have consolidated into a squall line as they approach central NC. The downstream atmosphere is weakly capped and moderately unstable with temperatures around 90F supporting 2000 J/kg MCLAPE. Multicell storms are expected to continue through central NC next couple hours and might eventually interact with the seabreeze which could support brief intensification, before subsequently diminishing as they continue into eastern NC. Isolated strong wind gusts should remain the primary threat next couple hours. ..Dial/Grams.. 08/21/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...RAH...GSP... LAT...LON 36227910 36327853 36047764 35507810 35017902 34887982 35168043 35787962 36227910 Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Wed Aug 21 21:56:02 UTC 2019.

WW 0609 Status Updates
240- STATUS REPORT ON WW 609 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NNE TTN TO 10 E MSV TO 40 SW ALB TO 30 ENE ALB TO 10 SSE LEB. ..NAUSLAR..08/21/19 ATTN...WFO...OKX...BOX...ALY...GYX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 609 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS CTC001-003-005-007-009-011-013-015-212240- CT . CONNECTICUT COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE FAIRFIELD HARTFORD LITCHFIELD MIDDLESEX NEW HAVEN NEW LONDON TOLLAND WINDHAM MEC031-212240- ME . MAINE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE YORK MAC001-003-005-007-009-011-013-015-017-019-021-023-025-027- 212240- MA . MASSACHUSETTS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

WW 0610 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 610 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 WSW DCA TO 20 NW DCA TO 25 WNW BWI TO 30 NNE BWI TO 35 NW ILG TO 35 E CXY TO 25 WNW ABE TO 15 SW AVP. ..NAUSLAR..08/21/19 ATTN...WFO...LWX...PHI...CTP... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 610 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS DEC001-003-005-212240- DE . DELAWARE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE KENT NEW CASTLE SUSSEX DCC001-212240- DC . DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA MDC003-009-011-015-017-025-027-029-031-033-035-041-510-212240- MD . MARYLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANNE ARUNDEL CALVERT CAROLINE CECIL CHARLES HARFORD HOWARD KENT MONTGOMERY Read more

WW 0611 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 611 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..DIAL..08/21/19 ATTN...WFO...BOU...PUB...CYS... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 611 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS COC001-005-013-014-025-031-035-039-041-059-069-089-101-119-123- 212240- CO . COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS ARAPAHOE BOULDER BROOMFIELD CROWLEY DENVER DOUGLAS ELBERT EL PASO JEFFERSON LARIMER OTERO PUEBLO TELLER WELD WYC001-015-021-031-212240- WY . WYOMING COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALBANY GOSHEN LARAMIE PLATTE THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0611 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0611 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0610 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 610 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..KERR..08/21/19 ATTN...WFO...LWX...PHI...CTP... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 610 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS DEC001-003-005-212140- DE . DELAWARE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE KENT NEW CASTLE SUSSEX DCC001-212140- DC . DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA MDC003-005-009-011-013-015-017-021-025-027-029-031-033-035-041- 510-212140- MD . MARYLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANNE ARUNDEL BALTIMORE CALVERT CAROLINE CARROLL CECIL CHARLES FREDERICK HARFORD HOWARD KENT MONTGOMERY Read more

WW 0609 Status Updates
140- STATUS REPORT ON WW 609 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..KERR..08/21/19 ATTN...WFO...OKX...BOX...ALY...GYX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 609 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS CTC001-003-005-007-009-011-013-015-212140- CT . CONNECTICUT COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE FAIRFIELD HARTFORD LITCHFIELD MIDDLESEX NEW HAVEN NEW LONDON TOLLAND WINDHAM MEC031-212140- ME . MAINE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE YORK MAC001-003-005-007-009-011-013-015-017-019-021-023-025-027- 212140- MA . MASSACHUSETTS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARNSTABLE BERKSHIRE BRISTOL Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0257 PM CDT Wed Aug 21 2019 Valid 212000Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC REGION...AS WELL AS OVER PARTS OF THE COLORADO FRONT RANGE... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms will continue this afternoon and evening across parts of the Northeast/Mid-Atlantic States, while a few severe storms will be possible across the central high Plains. ...Discussion... The overall outlook remains on track, with respect to prior forecast reasoning. The main changes in this update will be to extend the eastern U.S. SLGT risk a bit farther south across parts of the mid Atlantic region, while removing northern portions of the risk in parts of New England, and to include a small SLGT risk over the Colorado Front Range. In the East, clouds remain dense, and the airmass stable, over northern portions of Vermont and New Hampshire, with the primary severe risk likely to remain south of these areas. Meanwhile, with recently issued WW #610 extending southward to the Chesapeake Bay region, SLGT risk is correspondingly being expanded slightly southward. In Colorado, shear remains modest -- particularly with southward extent. However, with moderate destabilization occurring, and thus risk for locally intense cells within a narrow corridor, potential for hail/wind with a few of the strongest storms warrants upgrade to a small SLGT risk in this area. Otherwise, no major changes to the outlook are required at this time. ..Goss.. 08/21/2019 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1132 AM CDT Wed Aug 21 2019/ ...Northeast/Mid-Atlantic States... A shortwave trough will continue to progress east-northeastward from eastern New York toward northern New England, while a warm front slowly spreads northward across southern New England. With broken cloud cover lingering in most areas, modest overall destabilization is expected along/south of the warm front where low-level/deep-layer shear will be maximized. The environment will support the possibility of supercells/bowing segments particularly across southeast New York and southern New England, with severe hail/wind possible along with some tornado risk. Multicells with damaging winds are possible farther south within the warm sector. For additional short-term details, see Mesoscale Discussion 1825. ...Kansas/Missouri/far southeast Nebraska to Missouri/Illinois... The remnants of overnight convection continue to decay across the region with cloud cover/outflow influencing an effective boundary across southern portions of Kansas/Missouri. Surface-based thunderstorms should develop/intensify later this afternoon particularly across southern/eastern Kansas into western Missouri within a moist/unstable environment. Relatively weak tropospheric winds may limit overall storm organization, but the strongest storms will pose a damaging wind/severe hail risk. ...Wyoming/Colorado Front Range to central High Plains... Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms should develop this afternoon over the eastern mountains and foothills from northern Wyoming across central/southern Colorado, offering the potential for isolated severe hail and gusts. Activity is expected predominantly in the post-frontal/upslope region where lift is maximized by a combination of upslope flow and diabatic surface heating of the higher terrain (minimizing MLCINH). Mid-level flow is forecast to be modest; however, vertical shear will be stronger than over lower elevations ahead of the front because of the backed boundary-layer winds and relatively extended low-level hodographs. As such, a mixture of supercellular and multicellular structures are possible. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0257 PM CDT Wed Aug 21 2019 Valid 212000Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC REGION...AS WELL AS OVER PARTS OF THE COLORADO FRONT RANGE... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms will continue this afternoon and evening across parts of the Northeast/Mid-Atlantic States, while a few severe storms will be possible across the central high Plains. ...Discussion... The overall outlook remains on track, with respect to prior forecast reasoning. The main changes in this update will be to extend the eastern U.S. SLGT risk a bit farther south across parts of the mid Atlantic region, while removing northern portions of the risk in parts of New England, and to include a small SLGT risk over the Colorado Front Range. In the East, clouds remain dense, and the airmass stable, over northern portions of Vermont and New Hampshire, with the primary severe risk likely to remain south of these areas. Meanwhile, with recently issued WW #610 extending southward to the Chesapeake Bay region, SLGT risk is correspondingly being expanded slightly southward. In Colorado, shear remains modest -- particularly with southward extent. However, with moderate destabilization occurring, and thus risk for locally intense cells within a narrow corridor, potential for hail/wind with a few of the strongest storms warrants upgrade to a small SLGT risk in this area. Otherwise, no major changes to the outlook are required at this time. ..Goss.. 08/21/2019 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1132 AM CDT Wed Aug 21 2019/ ...Northeast/Mid-Atlantic States... A shortwave trough will continue to progress east-northeastward from eastern New York toward northern New England, while a warm front slowly spreads northward across southern New England. With broken cloud cover lingering in most areas, modest overall destabilization is expected along/south of the warm front where low-level/deep-layer shear will be maximized. The environment will support the possibility of supercells/bowing segments particularly across southeast New York and southern New England, with severe hail/wind possible along with some tornado risk. Multicells with damaging winds are possible farther south within the warm sector. For additional short-term details, see Mesoscale Discussion 1825. ...Kansas/Missouri/far southeast Nebraska to Missouri/Illinois... The remnants of overnight convection continue to decay across the region with cloud cover/outflow influencing an effective boundary across southern portions of Kansas/Missouri. Surface-based thunderstorms should develop/intensify later this afternoon particularly across southern/eastern Kansas into western Missouri within a moist/unstable environment. Relatively weak tropospheric winds may limit overall storm organization, but the strongest storms will pose a damaging wind/severe hail risk. ...Wyoming/Colorado Front Range to central High Plains... Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms should develop this afternoon over the eastern mountains and foothills from northern Wyoming across central/southern Colorado, offering the potential for isolated severe hail and gusts. Activity is expected predominantly in the post-frontal/upslope region where lift is maximized by a combination of upslope flow and diabatic surface heating of the higher terrain (minimizing MLCINH). Mid-level flow is forecast to be modest; however, vertical shear will be stronger than over lower elevations ahead of the front because of the backed boundary-layer winds and relatively extended low-level hodographs. As such, a mixture of supercellular and multicellular structures are possible. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0257 PM CDT Wed Aug 21 2019 Valid 212000Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC REGION...AS WELL AS OVER PARTS OF THE COLORADO FRONT RANGE... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms will continue this afternoon and evening across parts of the Northeast/Mid-Atlantic States, while a few severe storms will be possible across the central high Plains. ...Discussion... The overall outlook remains on track, with respect to prior forecast reasoning. The main changes in this update will be to extend the eastern U.S. SLGT risk a bit farther south across parts of the mid Atlantic region, while removing northern portions of the risk in parts of New England, and to include a small SLGT risk over the Colorado Front Range. In the East, clouds remain dense, and the airmass stable, over northern portions of Vermont and New Hampshire, with the primary severe risk likely to remain south of these areas. Meanwhile, with recently issued WW #610 extending southward to the Chesapeake Bay region, SLGT risk is correspondingly being expanded slightly southward. In Colorado, shear remains modest -- particularly with southward extent. However, with moderate destabilization occurring, and thus risk for locally intense cells within a narrow corridor, potential for hail/wind with a few of the strongest storms warrants upgrade to a small SLGT risk in this area. Otherwise, no major changes to the outlook are required at this time. ..Goss.. 08/21/2019 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1132 AM CDT Wed Aug 21 2019/ ...Northeast/Mid-Atlantic States... A shortwave trough will continue to progress east-northeastward from eastern New York toward northern New England, while a warm front slowly spreads northward across southern New England. With broken cloud cover lingering in most areas, modest overall destabilization is expected along/south of the warm front where low-level/deep-layer shear will be maximized. The environment will support the possibility of supercells/bowing segments particularly across southeast New York and southern New England, with severe hail/wind possible along with some tornado risk. Multicells with damaging winds are possible farther south within the warm sector. For additional short-term details, see Mesoscale Discussion 1825. ...Kansas/Missouri/far southeast Nebraska to Missouri/Illinois... The remnants of overnight convection continue to decay across the region with cloud cover/outflow influencing an effective boundary across southern portions of Kansas/Missouri. Surface-based thunderstorms should develop/intensify later this afternoon particularly across southern/eastern Kansas into western Missouri within a moist/unstable environment. Relatively weak tropospheric winds may limit overall storm organization, but the strongest storms will pose a damaging wind/severe hail risk. ...Wyoming/Colorado Front Range to central High Plains... Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms should develop this afternoon over the eastern mountains and foothills from northern Wyoming across central/southern Colorado, offering the potential for isolated severe hail and gusts. Activity is expected predominantly in the post-frontal/upslope region where lift is maximized by a combination of upslope flow and diabatic surface heating of the higher terrain (minimizing MLCINH). Mid-level flow is forecast to be modest; however, vertical shear will be stronger than over lower elevations ahead of the front because of the backed boundary-layer winds and relatively extended low-level hodographs. As such, a mixture of supercellular and multicellular structures are possible. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0257 PM CDT Wed Aug 21 2019 Valid 212000Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC REGION...AS WELL AS OVER PARTS OF THE COLORADO FRONT RANGE... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms will continue this afternoon and evening across parts of the Northeast/Mid-Atlantic States, while a few severe storms will be possible across the central high Plains. ...Discussion... The overall outlook remains on track, with respect to prior forecast reasoning. The main changes in this update will be to extend the eastern U.S. SLGT risk a bit farther south across parts of the mid Atlantic region, while removing northern portions of the risk in parts of New England, and to include a small SLGT risk over the Colorado Front Range. In the East, clouds remain dense, and the airmass stable, over northern portions of Vermont and New Hampshire, with the primary severe risk likely to remain south of these areas. Meanwhile, with recently issued WW #610 extending southward to the Chesapeake Bay region, SLGT risk is correspondingly being expanded slightly southward. In Colorado, shear remains modest -- particularly with southward extent. However, with moderate destabilization occurring, and thus risk for locally intense cells within a narrow corridor, potential for hail/wind with a few of the strongest storms warrants upgrade to a small SLGT risk in this area. Otherwise, no major changes to the outlook are required at this time. ..Goss.. 08/21/2019 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1132 AM CDT Wed Aug 21 2019/ ...Northeast/Mid-Atlantic States... A shortwave trough will continue to progress east-northeastward from eastern New York toward northern New England, while a warm front slowly spreads northward across southern New England. With broken cloud cover lingering in most areas, modest overall destabilization is expected along/south of the warm front where low-level/deep-layer shear will be maximized. The environment will support the possibility of supercells/bowing segments particularly across southeast New York and southern New England, with severe hail/wind possible along with some tornado risk. Multicells with damaging winds are possible farther south within the warm sector. For additional short-term details, see Mesoscale Discussion 1825. ...Kansas/Missouri/far southeast Nebraska to Missouri/Illinois... The remnants of overnight convection continue to decay across the region with cloud cover/outflow influencing an effective boundary across southern portions of Kansas/Missouri. Surface-based thunderstorms should develop/intensify later this afternoon particularly across southern/eastern Kansas into western Missouri within a moist/unstable environment. Relatively weak tropospheric winds may limit overall storm organization, but the strongest storms will pose a damaging wind/severe hail risk. ...Wyoming/Colorado Front Range to central High Plains... Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms should develop this afternoon over the eastern mountains and foothills from northern Wyoming across central/southern Colorado, offering the potential for isolated severe hail and gusts. Activity is expected predominantly in the post-frontal/upslope region where lift is maximized by a combination of upslope flow and diabatic surface heating of the higher terrain (minimizing MLCINH). Mid-level flow is forecast to be modest; however, vertical shear will be stronger than over lower elevations ahead of the front because of the backed boundary-layer winds and relatively extended low-level hodographs. As such, a mixture of supercellular and multicellular structures are possible. Read more

MD 1827 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 609... FOR HUDSON VALLEY INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
Mesoscale Discussion 1827 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0255 PM CDT Wed Aug 21 2019 Areas affected...Hudson Valley into southern New England Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 609... Valid 211955Z - 212130Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 609 continues. SUMMARY...Thunderstorm activity will continue to develop and intensify across the region through 5-7 PM EDT, posing a risk for damaging wind gusts, and perhaps at least some continuing risk for a tornado or two. DISCUSSION...The initial convective band has largely dissipated, but widely scattered, generally discrete vigorous thunderstorms have developed and persisted. This includes one storm which still could take on an increasing supercell structure as it tracks near/northwest of Providence RI during the next hour or so. Convection north of Albany appears to be gradually growing upscale, with potential to produce a swath of damaging winds becoming more apparent. Further intensification and organization appears possible, as it tracks eastward along an effective warm frontal zone near/north of the Massachusetts/Vermont and New Hampshire border area through 21-23Z. Additional new thunderstorm development is ongoing within surface troughing, near/east of the Catskills and Poconos. In the presence of moderate instability and shear, this activity is expected to intensify further and gradually pose increasing potential for strong surface gusts across the lower Hudson Valley into southern New England and Long Island. ..Kerr.. 08/21/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...BTV...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM... LAT...LON 43587342 43537203 42807084 41917075 41387192 41027248 40657350 40457445 40657537 41757469 43587342 Read more

WW 0610 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0610 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0609 Status Updates
040- STATUS REPORT ON WW 609 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..KERR..08/21/19 ATTN...WFO...OKX...BOX...ALY...GYX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 609 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS CTC001-003-005-007-009-011-013-015-212040- CT . CONNECTICUT COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE FAIRFIELD HARTFORD LITCHFIELD MIDDLESEX NEW HAVEN NEW LONDON TOLLAND WINDHAM MEC031-212040- ME . MAINE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE YORK MAC001-003-005-007-009-011-013-015-017-019-021-023-025-027- 212040- MA . MASSACHUSETTS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARNSTABLE BERKSHIRE BRISTOL Read more

MD 1826 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR THE COLORADO FRONT RANGE TO PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING
Mesoscale Discussion 1826 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0151 PM CDT Wed Aug 21 2019 Areas affected...The Colorado front range to portions of southeast Wyoming Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 211851Z - 212045Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will develop/intensify through early afternoon and pose a threat for severe hail and brief severe wind gusts. The potential coverage of the threat, and hence the need for a Severe Thunderstorm Watch, is uncertain. DISCUSSION...Strong heating and an approaching weak mid-upper-level low are contributing to deepening cumulus and initial thunderstorm development over the Colorado and Wyoming high terrain. A moist and modifying continental polar air mass has pushed up to the foothills, creating an environment supportive of thunderstorms that varies little with latitude from the Raton Mesa northward to the Laramie Mountains. By early afternoon, forecast soundings suggest this environment will consist of 1500-2500 J/kg of MLCAPE (higher toward the Mountains) with little convective inhibition, moderate straight-line vertical wind shear confined mostly in the 1-4 km layer (supportive of multicell to some transient supercell structures), and DCAPE of 1200-1500 J/kg. Given storm rotation and steep low-to-mid level lapse rates, severe hail is the main threat with these storms, but brief severe wind gusts are possible in the stronger downdrafts. Moderate low-level southeasterly upslope flow combined with relatively weak west-northwesterly to westerly flow at 500-300 mb suggests a slow south to southeast motion to the cells, thus limiting the eastward extent of the threat. The main uncertainty concerning the need for a Severe Thunderstorm Watch is the coverage of the hail/wind threat. The coverage of storms that mature and move into the foothills will be monitored in the next hour or so to better determine if a Watch will be needed. ..Coniglio/Guyer.. 08/21/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PUB...BOU...CYS...RIW... LAT...LON 42860625 42760567 41960518 40150447 39820440 38480387 37790355 37460341 37110354 37050408 37090466 37430506 38260552 39540598 40280617 41270651 42560648 42860625 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0146 PM CDT Wed Aug 21 2019 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z Minor adjustments were made to ongoing elevated lines based on 12Z high resolution forecast guidance. However, no significant changes were made. See previous discussion below. ..Bentley.. 08/21/2019 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0143 AM CDT Wed Aug 21 2019/ ...Synopsis... An upper-level shortwave trough will continue to move east-northeast across the northern Intermountain West tomorrow. An associated surface cold front will continue to move south and east into the Great Basin and through much of the northern Rockies and northern California. With a pre-frontal surface pressure trough running parallel and ahead of the cold front, the surface pressure gradient will strengthen across the Intermountain West along and ahead of the cold front. Elevated conditions are expected from northern Arizona/southern Nevada stretching northeastward into central Wyoming along/ahead of the surface cold front. Southwest-westerly sustained surface winds of 15-20 mph and RH values of 8-20% are likely to develop during tomorrow afternoon and evening across this area. High clouds may drift into northern Arizona, which could limit the southern extent of the current elevated area. Elevated conditions are also likely to develop across central/eastern portions of the Snake River Plain and vicinity tomorrow afternoon. The cold front will have passed through the area, but daytime heating should warm temperatures and mix the boundary layer enough to result in west-southwest winds of 15-25 mph and RH values of 15-20%. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more