Severe Storms

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0242 AM CDT Wed Sep 11 2019 Valid 141200Z - 191200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Saturday/Day 4 and Sunday/Day 5... On Saturday, the medium-range models show a west-to east mid-level flow pattern across the northern U.S. and move a shortwave trough across the northern Plains. A cold front associated with the trough is forecast to move eastward into the upper Mississippi Valley and mid Missouri Valley. Although the models keep the warm sector capped through much of the day, some convection will be possible along the front during the evening and overnight period. An isolated severe threat will be possible, but will depend upon how much instability develops ahead of the front. On Sunday, the models move the shortwave trough eastward across the Great Lakes and develop an upper-level ridge in the north-central U.S. Thunderstorms would be possible Sunday afternoon in parts of the lower Great Lakes region along and south of a cold front. ...Monday/Day 6 to Wednesday/day 8... An upper-level ridge is forecast to develop across the eastern half of the U.S. from Monday to Wednesday as an upper-level trough takes shape in the western states. Model spread is considerable concerning where the greatest instability will develop each day beneath the ridge. Although an isolated severe threat can not be ruled out from the northern Plains eastward into the Upper Mississippi Valley each day, uncertainty is substantial during this part of the forecast period. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0242 AM CDT Wed Sep 11 2019 Valid 141200Z - 191200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Saturday/Day 4 and Sunday/Day 5... On Saturday, the medium-range models show a west-to east mid-level flow pattern across the northern U.S. and move a shortwave trough across the northern Plains. A cold front associated with the trough is forecast to move eastward into the upper Mississippi Valley and mid Missouri Valley. Although the models keep the warm sector capped through much of the day, some convection will be possible along the front during the evening and overnight period. An isolated severe threat will be possible, but will depend upon how much instability develops ahead of the front. On Sunday, the models move the shortwave trough eastward across the Great Lakes and develop an upper-level ridge in the north-central U.S. Thunderstorms would be possible Sunday afternoon in parts of the lower Great Lakes region along and south of a cold front. ...Monday/Day 6 to Wednesday/day 8... An upper-level ridge is forecast to develop across the eastern half of the U.S. from Monday to Wednesday as an upper-level trough takes shape in the western states. Model spread is considerable concerning where the greatest instability will develop each day beneath the ridge. Although an isolated severe threat can not be ruled out from the northern Plains eastward into the Upper Mississippi Valley each day, uncertainty is substantial during this part of the forecast period. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0242 AM CDT Wed Sep 11 2019 Valid 141200Z - 191200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Saturday/Day 4 and Sunday/Day 5... On Saturday, the medium-range models show a west-to east mid-level flow pattern across the northern U.S. and move a shortwave trough across the northern Plains. A cold front associated with the trough is forecast to move eastward into the upper Mississippi Valley and mid Missouri Valley. Although the models keep the warm sector capped through much of the day, some convection will be possible along the front during the evening and overnight period. An isolated severe threat will be possible, but will depend upon how much instability develops ahead of the front. On Sunday, the models move the shortwave trough eastward across the Great Lakes and develop an upper-level ridge in the north-central U.S. Thunderstorms would be possible Sunday afternoon in parts of the lower Great Lakes region along and south of a cold front. ...Monday/Day 6 to Wednesday/day 8... An upper-level ridge is forecast to develop across the eastern half of the U.S. from Monday to Wednesday as an upper-level trough takes shape in the western states. Model spread is considerable concerning where the greatest instability will develop each day beneath the ridge. Although an isolated severe threat can not be ruled out from the northern Plains eastward into the Upper Mississippi Valley each day, uncertainty is substantial during this part of the forecast period. Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0213 AM CDT Wed Sep 11 2019 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER GREAT LAKES SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with an isolated wind-damage threat will be possible on Friday from the Lower Great Lakes southwestward into the mid Mississippi Valley. ...Lower Great Lakes/Lower Ohio Valley/Mid Mississippi Valley... An upper-level low is forecast to move across the Upper Mississippi Valley on Friday as warm advection takes place across the Great Lakes region. At the surface, a cold front is forecast to advance eastward across the Great Lakes and mid Mississippi Valley. Some thunderstorm activity should be ongoing along the front in the morning. As surface heating takes place across the warm sector, moderate instability appears likely to develop by afternoon. In response, convection along the front should increase in coverage by late afternoon with formation of a linear MCS possible. At this point, model consensus between the NAM, GFS and ECMWF suggests the best combination of shear and instability will exist late Friday afternoon from near Detroit southwestward to Indianapolis. This would be the area with the greatest potential for damaging gusts. Severe threat coverage is expected to remain isolated mainly due to the position of the upper-level trough, which is forecast to remain well to the northwest of the front. ..Broyles.. 09/11/2019 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0213 AM CDT Wed Sep 11 2019 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER GREAT LAKES SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with an isolated wind-damage threat will be possible on Friday from the Lower Great Lakes southwestward into the mid Mississippi Valley. ...Lower Great Lakes/Lower Ohio Valley/Mid Mississippi Valley... An upper-level low is forecast to move across the Upper Mississippi Valley on Friday as warm advection takes place across the Great Lakes region. At the surface, a cold front is forecast to advance eastward across the Great Lakes and mid Mississippi Valley. Some thunderstorm activity should be ongoing along the front in the morning. As surface heating takes place across the warm sector, moderate instability appears likely to develop by afternoon. In response, convection along the front should increase in coverage by late afternoon with formation of a linear MCS possible. At this point, model consensus between the NAM, GFS and ECMWF suggests the best combination of shear and instability will exist late Friday afternoon from near Detroit southwestward to Indianapolis. This would be the area with the greatest potential for damaging gusts. Severe threat coverage is expected to remain isolated mainly due to the position of the upper-level trough, which is forecast to remain well to the northwest of the front. ..Broyles.. 09/11/2019 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0213 AM CDT Wed Sep 11 2019 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER GREAT LAKES SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with an isolated wind-damage threat will be possible on Friday from the Lower Great Lakes southwestward into the mid Mississippi Valley. ...Lower Great Lakes/Lower Ohio Valley/Mid Mississippi Valley... An upper-level low is forecast to move across the Upper Mississippi Valley on Friday as warm advection takes place across the Great Lakes region. At the surface, a cold front is forecast to advance eastward across the Great Lakes and mid Mississippi Valley. Some thunderstorm activity should be ongoing along the front in the morning. As surface heating takes place across the warm sector, moderate instability appears likely to develop by afternoon. In response, convection along the front should increase in coverage by late afternoon with formation of a linear MCS possible. At this point, model consensus between the NAM, GFS and ECMWF suggests the best combination of shear and instability will exist late Friday afternoon from near Detroit southwestward to Indianapolis. This would be the area with the greatest potential for damaging gusts. Severe threat coverage is expected to remain isolated mainly due to the position of the upper-level trough, which is forecast to remain well to the northwest of the front. ..Broyles.. 09/11/2019 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0213 AM CDT Wed Sep 11 2019 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER GREAT LAKES SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with an isolated wind-damage threat will be possible on Friday from the Lower Great Lakes southwestward into the mid Mississippi Valley. ...Lower Great Lakes/Lower Ohio Valley/Mid Mississippi Valley... An upper-level low is forecast to move across the Upper Mississippi Valley on Friday as warm advection takes place across the Great Lakes region. At the surface, a cold front is forecast to advance eastward across the Great Lakes and mid Mississippi Valley. Some thunderstorm activity should be ongoing along the front in the morning. As surface heating takes place across the warm sector, moderate instability appears likely to develop by afternoon. In response, convection along the front should increase in coverage by late afternoon with formation of a linear MCS possible. At this point, model consensus between the NAM, GFS and ECMWF suggests the best combination of shear and instability will exist late Friday afternoon from near Detroit southwestward to Indianapolis. This would be the area with the greatest potential for damaging gusts. Severe threat coverage is expected to remain isolated mainly due to the position of the upper-level trough, which is forecast to remain well to the northwest of the front. ..Broyles.. 09/11/2019 Read more

MD 1954 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 643...644... FOR SOUTHERN MINNESOTA THROUGH NORTHERN IOWA
Mesoscale Discussion 1954 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0209 AM CDT Wed Sep 11 2019 Areas affected...southern Minnesota through northern Iowa Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 643...644... Valid 110709Z - 110845Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 643, 644 continues. SUMMARY...Line of storms will continue to pose a risk for damaging wind as it continues through southern Minnesota and northern IA into the early morning hours. As needed, WW 644 can be expanded another row or two of counties farther south to account for intensification along the southern half of the line. DISCUSSION...Line of storms extending from southwest MN through northwest IA is moving east at 30-35 kt. A quasi-stationary front extends across southern MN, and the atmosphere along and south of this boundary remains moderately unstable with up to 2500 J/kg MUCAPE. A 40 kt southerly low-level jet will maintain influx of higher theta-e air as well as augment convergence along gust front, supporting forward propagation next few hours. Some strengthening has recently been observed along portion of the line moving into northwest IA. The squall line remains organized with a comma-head circulation on northern end along with a rear inflow jet supporting a continued threat for damaging wind next couple hours. ..Dial.. 09/11/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD... LAT...LON 42889530 43279498 43689471 44039448 44139334 44089267 43559247 43249252 42929294 42719425 42289539 42429588 42889530 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0156 AM CDT Wed Sep 11 2019 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...Synopsis... As the first in a series of mid-level shortwaves ejects into the Plains, a second, smaller mid-level impulse will traverse the Pacific Northwest during the Day 2/Thursday period. Otherwise, weak zonal flow aloft will prevail across the remainder of the western CONUS. A modest surface pressure gradient however, may become established across parts of southern California, encouraging dry offshore flow across the higher terrain near the southwest California coastline. ...Southern Coastal California... With the modest aforementioned pressure gradient in place across the area, elevated surface wind/RH conditions (15-20 mph east-northeasterly flow with 15-20% RH) are expected to transpire by late afternoon and continue into the overnight hours, towards the end of the period. These conditions will especially prevail along the higher terrain, from the San Gabriel to San Jacinto Mountains, where lack of rainfall and dry fuels will support at least marginal wildfire-spread potential, warranting an elevated delineation. ..Squitieri.. 09/11/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0156 AM CDT Wed Sep 11 2019 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...Synopsis... As the first in a series of mid-level shortwaves ejects into the Plains, a second, smaller mid-level impulse will traverse the Pacific Northwest during the Day 2/Thursday period. Otherwise, weak zonal flow aloft will prevail across the remainder of the western CONUS. A modest surface pressure gradient however, may become established across parts of southern California, encouraging dry offshore flow across the higher terrain near the southwest California coastline. ...Southern Coastal California... With the modest aforementioned pressure gradient in place across the area, elevated surface wind/RH conditions (15-20 mph east-northeasterly flow with 15-20% RH) are expected to transpire by late afternoon and continue into the overnight hours, towards the end of the period. These conditions will especially prevail along the higher terrain, from the San Gabriel to San Jacinto Mountains, where lack of rainfall and dry fuels will support at least marginal wildfire-spread potential, warranting an elevated delineation. ..Squitieri.. 09/11/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0156 AM CDT Wed Sep 11 2019 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...Synopsis... As the first in a series of mid-level shortwaves ejects into the Plains, a second, smaller mid-level impulse will traverse the Pacific Northwest during the Day 2/Thursday period. Otherwise, weak zonal flow aloft will prevail across the remainder of the western CONUS. A modest surface pressure gradient however, may become established across parts of southern California, encouraging dry offshore flow across the higher terrain near the southwest California coastline. ...Southern Coastal California... With the modest aforementioned pressure gradient in place across the area, elevated surface wind/RH conditions (15-20 mph east-northeasterly flow with 15-20% RH) are expected to transpire by late afternoon and continue into the overnight hours, towards the end of the period. These conditions will especially prevail along the higher terrain, from the San Gabriel to San Jacinto Mountains, where lack of rainfall and dry fuels will support at least marginal wildfire-spread potential, warranting an elevated delineation. ..Squitieri.. 09/11/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

WW 0643 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 643 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WNW SUX TO 5 ESE OTG TO 30 NNE OTG. ..DIAL..09/11/19 ATTN...WFO...FSD...LBF...OAX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 643 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IAC021-035-041-059-093-141-143-149-167-193-110740- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BUENA VISTA CHEROKEE CLAY DICKINSON IDA O'BRIEN OSCEOLA PLYMOUTH SIOUX WOODBURY MNC033-063-110740- MN . MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE COTTONWOOD JACKSON NEC043-051-110740- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DAKOTA DIXON Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1257 AM CDT Wed Sep 11 2019 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...OZARKS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with wind damage and isolated large hail will be possible on Thursday from southern Plains north-northeastward into the Upper Mississippi Valley. ...Southern Plains/Lower Missouri Valley/Upper Mississippi Valley... An upper-level low will move into the northern Plains on Thursday as a 50 to 70 kt mid-level jet moves across the central Plains and mid Missouri Valley. At the surface, a low will track eastward across Iowa as a cold front advances southeastward across eastern Kansas and northwest Oklahoma. Thunderstorms appear likely to be ongoing along the front in the morning but convective coverage should expand during the afternoon. As convection fills in along the front, a line of thunderstorms seems probable with that line moving eastward into the mid Mississippi Valley and Ozarks during the late afternoon and early evening. Ahead of the cold front, model forecasts suggest that surface dewpoints will be in the upper 60s to near 70 F which will contribute to moderate destabilization by afternoon. NAM and GFS forecast soundings at 00Z/Thursday from Des Moines south-southwestward to near Kansas City show MLCAPE from 1200 to 2500 J/kg. Wind profiles are forecast to be veered to the southwest at the low-levels. 0-6 km shear values are forecast to range from near 30 kt in eastern Kansas to about 45 kt in Iowa. This would favor a wind damage threat with bowing segments along the stronger parts of the line. An isolated hail threat could also occur with rotating cells embedded in the line. Further south into parts of central and northern Oklahoma, deep-layer shear is forecast to be weak suggesting the severe threat will stay marginal there. In the northern part of the threat area, a few severe storms may also develop across parts of eastern Minnesota and western Wisconsin but weak instability should temper the threat there. ...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD... Tornado: 2% - Marginal Wind: 15% - Slight Hail: 15% - Slight ..Broyles.. 09/11/2019 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1257 AM CDT Wed Sep 11 2019 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...OZARKS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with wind damage and isolated large hail will be possible on Thursday from southern Plains north-northeastward into the Upper Mississippi Valley. ...Southern Plains/Lower Missouri Valley/Upper Mississippi Valley... An upper-level low will move into the northern Plains on Thursday as a 50 to 70 kt mid-level jet moves across the central Plains and mid Missouri Valley. At the surface, a low will track eastward across Iowa as a cold front advances southeastward across eastern Kansas and northwest Oklahoma. Thunderstorms appear likely to be ongoing along the front in the morning but convective coverage should expand during the afternoon. As convection fills in along the front, a line of thunderstorms seems probable with that line moving eastward into the mid Mississippi Valley and Ozarks during the late afternoon and early evening. Ahead of the cold front, model forecasts suggest that surface dewpoints will be in the upper 60s to near 70 F which will contribute to moderate destabilization by afternoon. NAM and GFS forecast soundings at 00Z/Thursday from Des Moines south-southwestward to near Kansas City show MLCAPE from 1200 to 2500 J/kg. Wind profiles are forecast to be veered to the southwest at the low-levels. 0-6 km shear values are forecast to range from near 30 kt in eastern Kansas to about 45 kt in Iowa. This would favor a wind damage threat with bowing segments along the stronger parts of the line. An isolated hail threat could also occur with rotating cells embedded in the line. Further south into parts of central and northern Oklahoma, deep-layer shear is forecast to be weak suggesting the severe threat will stay marginal there. In the northern part of the threat area, a few severe storms may also develop across parts of eastern Minnesota and western Wisconsin but weak instability should temper the threat there. ...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD... Tornado: 2% - Marginal Wind: 15% - Slight Hail: 15% - Slight ..Broyles.. 09/11/2019 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1257 AM CDT Wed Sep 11 2019 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...OZARKS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with wind damage and isolated large hail will be possible on Thursday from southern Plains north-northeastward into the Upper Mississippi Valley. ...Southern Plains/Lower Missouri Valley/Upper Mississippi Valley... An upper-level low will move into the northern Plains on Thursday as a 50 to 70 kt mid-level jet moves across the central Plains and mid Missouri Valley. At the surface, a low will track eastward across Iowa as a cold front advances southeastward across eastern Kansas and northwest Oklahoma. Thunderstorms appear likely to be ongoing along the front in the morning but convective coverage should expand during the afternoon. As convection fills in along the front, a line of thunderstorms seems probable with that line moving eastward into the mid Mississippi Valley and Ozarks during the late afternoon and early evening. Ahead of the cold front, model forecasts suggest that surface dewpoints will be in the upper 60s to near 70 F which will contribute to moderate destabilization by afternoon. NAM and GFS forecast soundings at 00Z/Thursday from Des Moines south-southwestward to near Kansas City show MLCAPE from 1200 to 2500 J/kg. Wind profiles are forecast to be veered to the southwest at the low-levels. 0-6 km shear values are forecast to range from near 30 kt in eastern Kansas to about 45 kt in Iowa. This would favor a wind damage threat with bowing segments along the stronger parts of the line. An isolated hail threat could also occur with rotating cells embedded in the line. Further south into parts of central and northern Oklahoma, deep-layer shear is forecast to be weak suggesting the severe threat will stay marginal there. In the northern part of the threat area, a few severe storms may also develop across parts of eastern Minnesota and western Wisconsin but weak instability should temper the threat there. ...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD... Tornado: 2% - Marginal Wind: 15% - Slight Hail: 15% - Slight ..Broyles.. 09/11/2019 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1257 AM CDT Wed Sep 11 2019 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...OZARKS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with wind damage and isolated large hail will be possible on Thursday from southern Plains north-northeastward into the Upper Mississippi Valley. ...Southern Plains/Lower Missouri Valley/Upper Mississippi Valley... An upper-level low will move into the northern Plains on Thursday as a 50 to 70 kt mid-level jet moves across the central Plains and mid Missouri Valley. At the surface, a low will track eastward across Iowa as a cold front advances southeastward across eastern Kansas and northwest Oklahoma. Thunderstorms appear likely to be ongoing along the front in the morning but convective coverage should expand during the afternoon. As convection fills in along the front, a line of thunderstorms seems probable with that line moving eastward into the mid Mississippi Valley and Ozarks during the late afternoon and early evening. Ahead of the cold front, model forecasts suggest that surface dewpoints will be in the upper 60s to near 70 F which will contribute to moderate destabilization by afternoon. NAM and GFS forecast soundings at 00Z/Thursday from Des Moines south-southwestward to near Kansas City show MLCAPE from 1200 to 2500 J/kg. Wind profiles are forecast to be veered to the southwest at the low-levels. 0-6 km shear values are forecast to range from near 30 kt in eastern Kansas to about 45 kt in Iowa. This would favor a wind damage threat with bowing segments along the stronger parts of the line. An isolated hail threat could also occur with rotating cells embedded in the line. Further south into parts of central and northern Oklahoma, deep-layer shear is forecast to be weak suggesting the severe threat will stay marginal there. In the northern part of the threat area, a few severe storms may also develop across parts of eastern Minnesota and western Wisconsin but weak instability should temper the threat there. ...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD... Tornado: 2% - Marginal Wind: 15% - Slight Hail: 15% - Slight ..Broyles.. 09/11/2019 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0107 AM CDT Wed Sep 11 2019 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...Synopsis... A well-defined mid-level shortwave trough will move across the western CONUS, ejecting into the Plains states by the end of the period. Over 50 knots of 500 mb flow will accompany the trough, that when mixed down to the surface via a deepening boundary layer, will support dry and breezy conditions across the Four Corners areas. ...Four Corners Region... By mid to late afternoon, 15-25 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds, coincident with 15-25% RH, will become prevalent across northern portions of the Colorado Plateau, where an elevated area has been maintained. Very locally critical conditions will also be possible in terrain favoring locations, especially by peak afternoon heating. Given the sparse nature of the critical conditions, some modest precipitation accumulations within the last week, and fuels that are modestly receptive to fire spread, a critical delineation does not currently appear warranted. ..Squitieri.. 09/11/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0107 AM CDT Wed Sep 11 2019 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...Synopsis... A well-defined mid-level shortwave trough will move across the western CONUS, ejecting into the Plains states by the end of the period. Over 50 knots of 500 mb flow will accompany the trough, that when mixed down to the surface via a deepening boundary layer, will support dry and breezy conditions across the Four Corners areas. ...Four Corners Region... By mid to late afternoon, 15-25 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds, coincident with 15-25% RH, will become prevalent across northern portions of the Colorado Plateau, where an elevated area has been maintained. Very locally critical conditions will also be possible in terrain favoring locations, especially by peak afternoon heating. Given the sparse nature of the critical conditions, some modest precipitation accumulations within the last week, and fuels that are modestly receptive to fire spread, a critical delineation does not currently appear warranted. ..Squitieri.. 09/11/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0107 AM CDT Wed Sep 11 2019 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...Synopsis... A well-defined mid-level shortwave trough will move across the western CONUS, ejecting into the Plains states by the end of the period. Over 50 knots of 500 mb flow will accompany the trough, that when mixed down to the surface via a deepening boundary layer, will support dry and breezy conditions across the Four Corners areas. ...Four Corners Region... By mid to late afternoon, 15-25 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds, coincident with 15-25% RH, will become prevalent across northern portions of the Colorado Plateau, where an elevated area has been maintained. Very locally critical conditions will also be possible in terrain favoring locations, especially by peak afternoon heating. Given the sparse nature of the critical conditions, some modest precipitation accumulations within the last week, and fuels that are modestly receptive to fire spread, a critical delineation does not currently appear warranted. ..Squitieri.. 09/11/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0107 AM CDT Wed Sep 11 2019 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...Synopsis... A well-defined mid-level shortwave trough will move across the western CONUS, ejecting into the Plains states by the end of the period. Over 50 knots of 500 mb flow will accompany the trough, that when mixed down to the surface via a deepening boundary layer, will support dry and breezy conditions across the Four Corners areas. ...Four Corners Region... By mid to late afternoon, 15-25 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds, coincident with 15-25% RH, will become prevalent across northern portions of the Colorado Plateau, where an elevated area has been maintained. Very locally critical conditions will also be possible in terrain favoring locations, especially by peak afternoon heating. Given the sparse nature of the critical conditions, some modest precipitation accumulations within the last week, and fuels that are modestly receptive to fire spread, a critical delineation does not currently appear warranted. ..Squitieri.. 09/11/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more