Severe Storms

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1206 AM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the northern Plains late Monday afternoon and evening. ...Northern Plains... A positive-tilt upper shortwave trough will shift east across the northern Rockies/MT on Monday. In response, a surface low is forecast to develop over the northern High Plains, with attendant surface trough extending southward into the central High Plains. Strong heating will result in deep boundary layer mixing ahead of a cold front developing southward across MT/ND. Modest moisture and steep lapse rates will nonetheless support modest instability. Increasing westerly flow aloft also will provide support for marginal effective shear (near 25 kt). Increasing ascent by late afternoon and into the evening may support isolated strong to severe storms initially along the surface trough, with additional development possible along the cold front during the evening and into the nighttime hours. Strong gusts and isolated hail will be possible. ...Mid-Atlantic into FL... A very moist airmass with PW values near/above 2 inches will be in place. Where strong heating occurs, weak to moderate instability is forecast amid steepening low-level lapse rates. Vertical shear will remain weak, generally 15-20 kt or less. Nevertheless, sporadic strong gusts will be possible, but overall severe potential is expected to remain low at this time. ..Leitman.. 07/13/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1206 AM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the northern Plains late Monday afternoon and evening. ...Northern Plains... A positive-tilt upper shortwave trough will shift east across the northern Rockies/MT on Monday. In response, a surface low is forecast to develop over the northern High Plains, with attendant surface trough extending southward into the central High Plains. Strong heating will result in deep boundary layer mixing ahead of a cold front developing southward across MT/ND. Modest moisture and steep lapse rates will nonetheless support modest instability. Increasing westerly flow aloft also will provide support for marginal effective shear (near 25 kt). Increasing ascent by late afternoon and into the evening may support isolated strong to severe storms initially along the surface trough, with additional development possible along the cold front during the evening and into the nighttime hours. Strong gusts and isolated hail will be possible. ...Mid-Atlantic into FL... A very moist airmass with PW values near/above 2 inches will be in place. Where strong heating occurs, weak to moderate instability is forecast amid steepening low-level lapse rates. Vertical shear will remain weak, generally 15-20 kt or less. Nevertheless, sporadic strong gusts will be possible, but overall severe potential is expected to remain low at this time. ..Leitman.. 07/13/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1253 AM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/EASTERN AND SOUTHWEST STATES... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible today through early tonight in the Upper Midwest, Mid-Atlantic/Northeast, Southwest, south-central Texas to the Lower Ohio Valley, and Florida. ...Upper Midwest... In the wake of a 500-mb trough passage this morning, a strong 500-mb jetlet will shift across the southern Prairie Provinces. Guidance consensus indicates a low-amplitude 700-mb trough should shift southeast ahead of the aforementioned jetlet in the eastern Dakotas to western MN by late afternoon. This should aid in strengthening convergence along a progressive surface trough approaching northeast MN to the Mid-MO Valley. The northwest flow setup will yield favorable hodograph structure for potential discrete supercells and large hail production. But modest mid-level lapse rates and a confined weak to moderate buoyancy plume, largely driven by evapotranspiration ahead of the front, should modulate overall intensity/coverage. Isolated large hail/severe gusts from a few widely spaced supercells seem plausible from late afternoon to dusk. ...Mid-Atlantic/Northeast... Scattered to numerous storms are expected this afternoon within a persistent high PW airmass across the East. Convection from PA southward will remain disorganized amid weak to minimal shear with southern extent into VA/NC. Modest mid-level southwesterlies across NY, owing to peripheral influence of the ON/Upper Great Lakes trough, may aid in weak multicell clustering here. Erratic, mainly pulse convection is anticipated with locally strong gusts. ...Southwest... As a mid-level anticyclone becomes centered over the southern Great Basin, modest northerlies will dominate across northern NM turning to easterlies over southeast AZ. Widespread storms are expected to develop off the higher terrain and slowly progress south to west from mid-afternoon to mid-evening. With a gradient in buoyancy from northwest to southeast, larger over the southern High Plains, isolated severe hail will be possible over NM. Otherwise, isolated severe gusts should be the primary threat into southeast AZ. ...South-central TX to the Lower OH Valley... A nearly-stationary MCS is expected to be ongoing at 12Z across a portion of south-central TX with a primary threat of flash flooding (see WPC EROs/MPDs for details). Scattered convection should also be ongoing north-northeast into parts of MO. Multiple MCVs within both regimes will likely drift east within a low-amplitude mid-level trough. A belt of enhanced 700-mb southwesterlies ahead of these features may overlap various large-scale outflows. This could support an uptick in isolated damaging winds surrounding peak boundary-layer heating, mainly from midday to dusk. ...FL... With the mid-level anticyclone becoming centered along the central Gulf Coast, weak northerly flow will dominate much of the state. 00Z HREF indicates a pronounced signal for scattered storms along the north FL/south GA border through the central/eastern FL Peninsula. Amid 2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE and high PW values yielding melting small hail, localized marginal severe gusts in wet microbursts will be possible from mid-afternoon to early evening. ..Grams/Thornton.. 07/13/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1253 AM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/EASTERN AND SOUTHWEST STATES... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible today through early tonight in the Upper Midwest, Mid-Atlantic/Northeast, Southwest, south-central Texas to the Lower Ohio Valley, and Florida. ...Upper Midwest... In the wake of a 500-mb trough passage this morning, a strong 500-mb jetlet will shift across the southern Prairie Provinces. Guidance consensus indicates a low-amplitude 700-mb trough should shift southeast ahead of the aforementioned jetlet in the eastern Dakotas to western MN by late afternoon. This should aid in strengthening convergence along a progressive surface trough approaching northeast MN to the Mid-MO Valley. The northwest flow setup will yield favorable hodograph structure for potential discrete supercells and large hail production. But modest mid-level lapse rates and a confined weak to moderate buoyancy plume, largely driven by evapotranspiration ahead of the front, should modulate overall intensity/coverage. Isolated large hail/severe gusts from a few widely spaced supercells seem plausible from late afternoon to dusk. ...Mid-Atlantic/Northeast... Scattered to numerous storms are expected this afternoon within a persistent high PW airmass across the East. Convection from PA southward will remain disorganized amid weak to minimal shear with southern extent into VA/NC. Modest mid-level southwesterlies across NY, owing to peripheral influence of the ON/Upper Great Lakes trough, may aid in weak multicell clustering here. Erratic, mainly pulse convection is anticipated with locally strong gusts. ...Southwest... As a mid-level anticyclone becomes centered over the southern Great Basin, modest northerlies will dominate across northern NM turning to easterlies over southeast AZ. Widespread storms are expected to develop off the higher terrain and slowly progress south to west from mid-afternoon to mid-evening. With a gradient in buoyancy from northwest to southeast, larger over the southern High Plains, isolated severe hail will be possible over NM. Otherwise, isolated severe gusts should be the primary threat into southeast AZ. ...South-central TX to the Lower OH Valley... A nearly-stationary MCS is expected to be ongoing at 12Z across a portion of south-central TX with a primary threat of flash flooding (see WPC EROs/MPDs for details). Scattered convection should also be ongoing north-northeast into parts of MO. Multiple MCVs within both regimes will likely drift east within a low-amplitude mid-level trough. A belt of enhanced 700-mb southwesterlies ahead of these features may overlap various large-scale outflows. This could support an uptick in isolated damaging winds surrounding peak boundary-layer heating, mainly from midday to dusk. ...FL... With the mid-level anticyclone becoming centered along the central Gulf Coast, weak northerly flow will dominate much of the state. 00Z HREF indicates a pronounced signal for scattered storms along the north FL/south GA border through the central/eastern FL Peninsula. Amid 2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE and high PW values yielding melting small hail, localized marginal severe gusts in wet microbursts will be possible from mid-afternoon to early evening. ..Grams/Thornton.. 07/13/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1253 AM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/EASTERN AND SOUTHWEST STATES... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible today through early tonight in the Upper Midwest, Mid-Atlantic/Northeast, Southwest, south-central Texas to the Lower Ohio Valley, and Florida. ...Upper Midwest... In the wake of a 500-mb trough passage this morning, a strong 500-mb jetlet will shift across the southern Prairie Provinces. Guidance consensus indicates a low-amplitude 700-mb trough should shift southeast ahead of the aforementioned jetlet in the eastern Dakotas to western MN by late afternoon. This should aid in strengthening convergence along a progressive surface trough approaching northeast MN to the Mid-MO Valley. The northwest flow setup will yield favorable hodograph structure for potential discrete supercells and large hail production. But modest mid-level lapse rates and a confined weak to moderate buoyancy plume, largely driven by evapotranspiration ahead of the front, should modulate overall intensity/coverage. Isolated large hail/severe gusts from a few widely spaced supercells seem plausible from late afternoon to dusk. ...Mid-Atlantic/Northeast... Scattered to numerous storms are expected this afternoon within a persistent high PW airmass across the East. Convection from PA southward will remain disorganized amid weak to minimal shear with southern extent into VA/NC. Modest mid-level southwesterlies across NY, owing to peripheral influence of the ON/Upper Great Lakes trough, may aid in weak multicell clustering here. Erratic, mainly pulse convection is anticipated with locally strong gusts. ...Southwest... As a mid-level anticyclone becomes centered over the southern Great Basin, modest northerlies will dominate across northern NM turning to easterlies over southeast AZ. Widespread storms are expected to develop off the higher terrain and slowly progress south to west from mid-afternoon to mid-evening. With a gradient in buoyancy from northwest to southeast, larger over the southern High Plains, isolated severe hail will be possible over NM. Otherwise, isolated severe gusts should be the primary threat into southeast AZ. ...South-central TX to the Lower OH Valley... A nearly-stationary MCS is expected to be ongoing at 12Z across a portion of south-central TX with a primary threat of flash flooding (see WPC EROs/MPDs for details). Scattered convection should also be ongoing north-northeast into parts of MO. Multiple MCVs within both regimes will likely drift east within a low-amplitude mid-level trough. A belt of enhanced 700-mb southwesterlies ahead of these features may overlap various large-scale outflows. This could support an uptick in isolated damaging winds surrounding peak boundary-layer heating, mainly from midday to dusk. ...FL... With the mid-level anticyclone becoming centered along the central Gulf Coast, weak northerly flow will dominate much of the state. 00Z HREF indicates a pronounced signal for scattered storms along the north FL/south GA border through the central/eastern FL Peninsula. Amid 2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE and high PW values yielding melting small hail, localized marginal severe gusts in wet microbursts will be possible from mid-afternoon to early evening. ..Grams/Thornton.. 07/13/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1253 AM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/EASTERN AND SOUTHWEST STATES... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible today through early tonight in the Upper Midwest, Mid-Atlantic/Northeast, Southwest, south-central Texas to the Lower Ohio Valley, and Florida. ...Upper Midwest... In the wake of a 500-mb trough passage this morning, a strong 500-mb jetlet will shift across the southern Prairie Provinces. Guidance consensus indicates a low-amplitude 700-mb trough should shift southeast ahead of the aforementioned jetlet in the eastern Dakotas to western MN by late afternoon. This should aid in strengthening convergence along a progressive surface trough approaching northeast MN to the Mid-MO Valley. The northwest flow setup will yield favorable hodograph structure for potential discrete supercells and large hail production. But modest mid-level lapse rates and a confined weak to moderate buoyancy plume, largely driven by evapotranspiration ahead of the front, should modulate overall intensity/coverage. Isolated large hail/severe gusts from a few widely spaced supercells seem plausible from late afternoon to dusk. ...Mid-Atlantic/Northeast... Scattered to numerous storms are expected this afternoon within a persistent high PW airmass across the East. Convection from PA southward will remain disorganized amid weak to minimal shear with southern extent into VA/NC. Modest mid-level southwesterlies across NY, owing to peripheral influence of the ON/Upper Great Lakes trough, may aid in weak multicell clustering here. Erratic, mainly pulse convection is anticipated with locally strong gusts. ...Southwest... As a mid-level anticyclone becomes centered over the southern Great Basin, modest northerlies will dominate across northern NM turning to easterlies over southeast AZ. Widespread storms are expected to develop off the higher terrain and slowly progress south to west from mid-afternoon to mid-evening. With a gradient in buoyancy from northwest to southeast, larger over the southern High Plains, isolated severe hail will be possible over NM. Otherwise, isolated severe gusts should be the primary threat into southeast AZ. ...South-central TX to the Lower OH Valley... A nearly-stationary MCS is expected to be ongoing at 12Z across a portion of south-central TX with a primary threat of flash flooding (see WPC EROs/MPDs for details). Scattered convection should also be ongoing north-northeast into parts of MO. Multiple MCVs within both regimes will likely drift east within a low-amplitude mid-level trough. A belt of enhanced 700-mb southwesterlies ahead of these features may overlap various large-scale outflows. This could support an uptick in isolated damaging winds surrounding peak boundary-layer heating, mainly from midday to dusk. ...FL... With the mid-level anticyclone becoming centered along the central Gulf Coast, weak northerly flow will dominate much of the state. 00Z HREF indicates a pronounced signal for scattered storms along the north FL/south GA border through the central/eastern FL Peninsula. Amid 2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE and high PW values yielding melting small hail, localized marginal severe gusts in wet microbursts will be possible from mid-afternoon to early evening. ..Grams/Thornton.. 07/13/2025 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1135 PM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...Synopsis... Winds across the Pacific Northwest will increase again on D2/Monday as a belt of enhanced mid-level westerlies moves out of British Columbia along with a south-southeastward moving cold front. Elevated fire weather concerns will continue across the Cascades into the Columbia River Basin and further east in the Snake River Plain in Idaho. Winds around 15-20 mph will overlap relative humidity reductions to around 15-20 percent in these regions. A few hours of locally Critical conditions will be possible across the Snake River Plain, however, limited coverage precludes introduction of a Critical area. ..Thornton.. 07/13/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1135 PM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...Synopsis... Winds across the Pacific Northwest will increase again on D2/Monday as a belt of enhanced mid-level westerlies moves out of British Columbia along with a south-southeastward moving cold front. Elevated fire weather concerns will continue across the Cascades into the Columbia River Basin and further east in the Snake River Plain in Idaho. Winds around 15-20 mph will overlap relative humidity reductions to around 15-20 percent in these regions. A few hours of locally Critical conditions will be possible across the Snake River Plain, however, limited coverage precludes introduction of a Critical area. ..Thornton.. 07/13/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1135 PM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...Synopsis... Winds across the Pacific Northwest will increase again on D2/Monday as a belt of enhanced mid-level westerlies moves out of British Columbia along with a south-southeastward moving cold front. Elevated fire weather concerns will continue across the Cascades into the Columbia River Basin and further east in the Snake River Plain in Idaho. Winds around 15-20 mph will overlap relative humidity reductions to around 15-20 percent in these regions. A few hours of locally Critical conditions will be possible across the Snake River Plain, however, limited coverage precludes introduction of a Critical area. ..Thornton.. 07/13/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1135 PM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...Synopsis... Winds across the Pacific Northwest will increase again on D2/Monday as a belt of enhanced mid-level westerlies moves out of British Columbia along with a south-southeastward moving cold front. Elevated fire weather concerns will continue across the Cascades into the Columbia River Basin and further east in the Snake River Plain in Idaho. Winds around 15-20 mph will overlap relative humidity reductions to around 15-20 percent in these regions. A few hours of locally Critical conditions will be possible across the Snake River Plain, however, limited coverage precludes introduction of a Critical area. ..Thornton.. 07/13/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1135 PM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...Synopsis... Winds across the Pacific Northwest will increase again on D2/Monday as a belt of enhanced mid-level westerlies moves out of British Columbia along with a south-southeastward moving cold front. Elevated fire weather concerns will continue across the Cascades into the Columbia River Basin and further east in the Snake River Plain in Idaho. Winds around 15-20 mph will overlap relative humidity reductions to around 15-20 percent in these regions. A few hours of locally Critical conditions will be possible across the Snake River Plain, however, limited coverage precludes introduction of a Critical area. ..Thornton.. 07/13/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1134 PM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...Synopsis... A mid-level wave will begin to traverse the northern periphery of the western ridge today, bringing an increase in westerly flow across the Cascades in central Washington and northern Oregon. Elevated fire weather conditions will be likely across the Cascade Gaps and into the Columbia Basin, where relative humidity reductions around 20 percent will overlap winds sustained 10-15 mph (locally higher). An Elevated was maintained with this outlook to support potential for increased fire spread potential. ...Dry Thunderstorms... A mix of wet/dry thunderstorms will be possible in Northern Arizona today. Moisture banked across the Mogollon Rim becomes less with northern extent, where PWs drop to around 0.25-0.50". Storm motions will be around 10-20 mph, but coverage should allow multiple rounds of storms. However, outside of heavier cores and where less coverage is expected across the western rim, there could be a few instances of dry lightning. Overall, the small coverage of this risk does not warrant inclusion of an area at this time. ..Thornton.. 07/13/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1134 PM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...Synopsis... A mid-level wave will begin to traverse the northern periphery of the western ridge today, bringing an increase in westerly flow across the Cascades in central Washington and northern Oregon. Elevated fire weather conditions will be likely across the Cascade Gaps and into the Columbia Basin, where relative humidity reductions around 20 percent will overlap winds sustained 10-15 mph (locally higher). An Elevated was maintained with this outlook to support potential for increased fire spread potential. ...Dry Thunderstorms... A mix of wet/dry thunderstorms will be possible in Northern Arizona today. Moisture banked across the Mogollon Rim becomes less with northern extent, where PWs drop to around 0.25-0.50". Storm motions will be around 10-20 mph, but coverage should allow multiple rounds of storms. However, outside of heavier cores and where less coverage is expected across the western rim, there could be a few instances of dry lightning. Overall, the small coverage of this risk does not warrant inclusion of an area at this time. ..Thornton.. 07/13/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1134 PM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...Synopsis... A mid-level wave will begin to traverse the northern periphery of the western ridge today, bringing an increase in westerly flow across the Cascades in central Washington and northern Oregon. Elevated fire weather conditions will be likely across the Cascade Gaps and into the Columbia Basin, where relative humidity reductions around 20 percent will overlap winds sustained 10-15 mph (locally higher). An Elevated was maintained with this outlook to support potential for increased fire spread potential. ...Dry Thunderstorms... A mix of wet/dry thunderstorms will be possible in Northern Arizona today. Moisture banked across the Mogollon Rim becomes less with northern extent, where PWs drop to around 0.25-0.50". Storm motions will be around 10-20 mph, but coverage should allow multiple rounds of storms. However, outside of heavier cores and where less coverage is expected across the western rim, there could be a few instances of dry lightning. Overall, the small coverage of this risk does not warrant inclusion of an area at this time. ..Thornton.. 07/13/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1134 PM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...Synopsis... A mid-level wave will begin to traverse the northern periphery of the western ridge today, bringing an increase in westerly flow across the Cascades in central Washington and northern Oregon. Elevated fire weather conditions will be likely across the Cascade Gaps and into the Columbia Basin, where relative humidity reductions around 20 percent will overlap winds sustained 10-15 mph (locally higher). An Elevated was maintained with this outlook to support potential for increased fire spread potential. ...Dry Thunderstorms... A mix of wet/dry thunderstorms will be possible in Northern Arizona today. Moisture banked across the Mogollon Rim becomes less with northern extent, where PWs drop to around 0.25-0.50". Storm motions will be around 10-20 mph, but coverage should allow multiple rounds of storms. However, outside of heavier cores and where less coverage is expected across the western rim, there could be a few instances of dry lightning. Overall, the small coverage of this risk does not warrant inclusion of an area at this time. ..Thornton.. 07/13/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1134 PM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...Synopsis... A mid-level wave will begin to traverse the northern periphery of the western ridge today, bringing an increase in westerly flow across the Cascades in central Washington and northern Oregon. Elevated fire weather conditions will be likely across the Cascade Gaps and into the Columbia Basin, where relative humidity reductions around 20 percent will overlap winds sustained 10-15 mph (locally higher). An Elevated was maintained with this outlook to support potential for increased fire spread potential. ...Dry Thunderstorms... A mix of wet/dry thunderstorms will be possible in Northern Arizona today. Moisture banked across the Mogollon Rim becomes less with northern extent, where PWs drop to around 0.25-0.50". Storm motions will be around 10-20 mph, but coverage should allow multiple rounds of storms. However, outside of heavier cores and where less coverage is expected across the western rim, there could be a few instances of dry lightning. Overall, the small coverage of this risk does not warrant inclusion of an area at this time. ..Thornton.. 07/13/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0745 PM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025 Valid 130100Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH-CENTRAL STATES... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms remain possible, mainly through late evening, across parts of the Southwest and South-Central States. ...TX Trans-Pecos to southern CO... An isolated severe wind/hail threat should persist for a few more hours with widely scattered convection largely remaining tied to the higher terrain of south-central CO and northeast to south-central NM. With only a modest combination of buoyancy and deep-layer shear and lack of larger-scale ascent, severe potential will diminish after dusk. ...AR to the Edwards Plateau of TX... Numerous slow-moving clusters and cells are prevalent ahead of multiple MCVs. With weak deep-layer shear and around 2 inch PW values, as sampled by the 00Z FWD sounding, heavy rain will remain the primary convective threat. Moderate buoyancy will linger for a couple more hours to support a localized wet microburst/strong gust threat. Recent HRRR/RRFS runs suggest that overnight convective development may focus to the southwest of the Concho Valley MCV over the Edwards Plateau. This could yield an isolated severe hail threat in initial development, followed by locally strong downbursts as storms mature. Both of these risks should be secondary to the heavy rain/flash flooding potential (see 01Z WPC ERO with MDT risk). ...TN/OH Valleys to the Piedmont... Locally strong gusts could persist for another hour or two before disorganized convection further subsides. ..Grams.. 07/13/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0745 PM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025 Valid 130100Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH-CENTRAL STATES... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms remain possible, mainly through late evening, across parts of the Southwest and South-Central States. ...TX Trans-Pecos to southern CO... An isolated severe wind/hail threat should persist for a few more hours with widely scattered convection largely remaining tied to the higher terrain of south-central CO and northeast to south-central NM. With only a modest combination of buoyancy and deep-layer shear and lack of larger-scale ascent, severe potential will diminish after dusk. ...AR to the Edwards Plateau of TX... Numerous slow-moving clusters and cells are prevalent ahead of multiple MCVs. With weak deep-layer shear and around 2 inch PW values, as sampled by the 00Z FWD sounding, heavy rain will remain the primary convective threat. Moderate buoyancy will linger for a couple more hours to support a localized wet microburst/strong gust threat. Recent HRRR/RRFS runs suggest that overnight convective development may focus to the southwest of the Concho Valley MCV over the Edwards Plateau. This could yield an isolated severe hail threat in initial development, followed by locally strong downbursts as storms mature. Both of these risks should be secondary to the heavy rain/flash flooding potential (see 01Z WPC ERO with MDT risk). ...TN/OH Valleys to the Piedmont... Locally strong gusts could persist for another hour or two before disorganized convection further subsides. ..Grams.. 07/13/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0745 PM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025 Valid 130100Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH-CENTRAL STATES... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms remain possible, mainly through late evening, across parts of the Southwest and South-Central States. ...TX Trans-Pecos to southern CO... An isolated severe wind/hail threat should persist for a few more hours with widely scattered convection largely remaining tied to the higher terrain of south-central CO and northeast to south-central NM. With only a modest combination of buoyancy and deep-layer shear and lack of larger-scale ascent, severe potential will diminish after dusk. ...AR to the Edwards Plateau of TX... Numerous slow-moving clusters and cells are prevalent ahead of multiple MCVs. With weak deep-layer shear and around 2 inch PW values, as sampled by the 00Z FWD sounding, heavy rain will remain the primary convective threat. Moderate buoyancy will linger for a couple more hours to support a localized wet microburst/strong gust threat. Recent HRRR/RRFS runs suggest that overnight convective development may focus to the southwest of the Concho Valley MCV over the Edwards Plateau. This could yield an isolated severe hail threat in initial development, followed by locally strong downbursts as storms mature. Both of these risks should be secondary to the heavy rain/flash flooding potential (see 01Z WPC ERO with MDT risk). ...TN/OH Valleys to the Piedmont... Locally strong gusts could persist for another hour or two before disorganized convection further subsides. ..Grams.. 07/13/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0745 PM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025 Valid 130100Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH-CENTRAL STATES... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms remain possible, mainly through late evening, across parts of the Southwest and South-Central States. ...TX Trans-Pecos to southern CO... An isolated severe wind/hail threat should persist for a few more hours with widely scattered convection largely remaining tied to the higher terrain of south-central CO and northeast to south-central NM. With only a modest combination of buoyancy and deep-layer shear and lack of larger-scale ascent, severe potential will diminish after dusk. ...AR to the Edwards Plateau of TX... Numerous slow-moving clusters and cells are prevalent ahead of multiple MCVs. With weak deep-layer shear and around 2 inch PW values, as sampled by the 00Z FWD sounding, heavy rain will remain the primary convective threat. Moderate buoyancy will linger for a couple more hours to support a localized wet microburst/strong gust threat. Recent HRRR/RRFS runs suggest that overnight convective development may focus to the southwest of the Concho Valley MCV over the Edwards Plateau. This could yield an isolated severe hail threat in initial development, followed by locally strong downbursts as storms mature. Both of these risks should be secondary to the heavy rain/flash flooding potential (see 01Z WPC ERO with MDT risk). ...TN/OH Valleys to the Piedmont... Locally strong gusts could persist for another hour or two before disorganized convection further subsides. ..Grams.. 07/13/2025 Read more