Severe Storms

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0130 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2019 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...Synopsis... A strong mid/upper-level trough -- and associated area of enhanced mid-level flow -- is forecast to gradually move southeastward from the Great Basin to the Desert Southwest Day 2/Monday. ...Northern California... Elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions are expected Day 2/Monday across portions of the Sacramento Valley (especially western portions of the valley) and adjacent North Coast Ranges, as dry/gusty low-level northerly flow -- beneath the aforementioned area of enhanced mid-level flow -- overlaps near critical minimum RH values and at least marginally receptive fuels. Elevated fire weather conditions may also persist into the overnight due to poor RH recoveries and lingering gusty/breezy surface winds -- especially in terrain favored areas of the North Coast Ranges. ...Southern California... While a combination of increasing offshore surface flow and poor overnight RH recoveries may promote at least locally elevated fire weather conditions late overnight Day 2/Monday, the uncertainty regarding timing/coverage of any fire weather conditions precludes a fire weather area at this time. ..Elliott.. 09/22/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0130 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2019 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...Synopsis... A strong mid/upper-level trough -- and associated area of enhanced mid-level flow -- is forecast to gradually move southeastward from the Great Basin to the Desert Southwest Day 2/Monday. ...Northern California... Elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions are expected Day 2/Monday across portions of the Sacramento Valley (especially western portions of the valley) and adjacent North Coast Ranges, as dry/gusty low-level northerly flow -- beneath the aforementioned area of enhanced mid-level flow -- overlaps near critical minimum RH values and at least marginally receptive fuels. Elevated fire weather conditions may also persist into the overnight due to poor RH recoveries and lingering gusty/breezy surface winds -- especially in terrain favored areas of the North Coast Ranges. ...Southern California... While a combination of increasing offshore surface flow and poor overnight RH recoveries may promote at least locally elevated fire weather conditions late overnight Day 2/Monday, the uncertainty regarding timing/coverage of any fire weather conditions precludes a fire weather area at this time. ..Elliott.. 09/22/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0130 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2019 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...Synopsis... A strong mid/upper-level trough -- and associated area of enhanced mid-level flow -- is forecast to gradually move southeastward from the Great Basin to the Desert Southwest Day 2/Monday. ...Northern California... Elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions are expected Day 2/Monday across portions of the Sacramento Valley (especially western portions of the valley) and adjacent North Coast Ranges, as dry/gusty low-level northerly flow -- beneath the aforementioned area of enhanced mid-level flow -- overlaps near critical minimum RH values and at least marginally receptive fuels. Elevated fire weather conditions may also persist into the overnight due to poor RH recoveries and lingering gusty/breezy surface winds -- especially in terrain favored areas of the North Coast Ranges. ...Southern California... While a combination of increasing offshore surface flow and poor overnight RH recoveries may promote at least locally elevated fire weather conditions late overnight Day 2/Monday, the uncertainty regarding timing/coverage of any fire weather conditions precludes a fire weather area at this time. ..Elliott.. 09/22/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0126 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2019 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... An area of mid-level ridging is forecast to move from portions of the Great Basin toward the central/northern Plains through tonight. Meanwhile, a large upstream mid/upper-level trough -- and associated area of enhanced mid-level flow -- is forecast to come onshore across portions of northern California, Oregon, and Washington late this afternoon and into the overnight. ...Nevada... A few hours of locally elevated fire weather conditions are possible this afternoon across portions of central/southwest Nevada, where sustained surface winds of 10-15 mph occur in conjunction with surface RH values near 15% and receptive fuels. However, the brief/spotty nature of these conditions precludes the introduction of a fire weather area. ...Northern California... Locally elevated fire weather conditions are possible late this evening and into tonight across eastern portions of the Northern Coast Ranges, as a tightening surface pressure gradient coupled with overlapping enhanced mid-level flow promotes increasingly gusty surface winds amidst pockets of poor overnight RH recoveries. A fire area may be needed in a future update if trends in guidance suggest greater coverage of elevated fire weather conditions. ..Elliott.. 09/22/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0126 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2019 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... An area of mid-level ridging is forecast to move from portions of the Great Basin toward the central/northern Plains through tonight. Meanwhile, a large upstream mid/upper-level trough -- and associated area of enhanced mid-level flow -- is forecast to come onshore across portions of northern California, Oregon, and Washington late this afternoon and into the overnight. ...Nevada... A few hours of locally elevated fire weather conditions are possible this afternoon across portions of central/southwest Nevada, where sustained surface winds of 10-15 mph occur in conjunction with surface RH values near 15% and receptive fuels. However, the brief/spotty nature of these conditions precludes the introduction of a fire weather area. ...Northern California... Locally elevated fire weather conditions are possible late this evening and into tonight across eastern portions of the Northern Coast Ranges, as a tightening surface pressure gradient coupled with overlapping enhanced mid-level flow promotes increasingly gusty surface winds amidst pockets of poor overnight RH recoveries. A fire area may be needed in a future update if trends in guidance suggest greater coverage of elevated fire weather conditions. ..Elliott.. 09/22/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0126 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2019 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... An area of mid-level ridging is forecast to move from portions of the Great Basin toward the central/northern Plains through tonight. Meanwhile, a large upstream mid/upper-level trough -- and associated area of enhanced mid-level flow -- is forecast to come onshore across portions of northern California, Oregon, and Washington late this afternoon and into the overnight. ...Nevada... A few hours of locally elevated fire weather conditions are possible this afternoon across portions of central/southwest Nevada, where sustained surface winds of 10-15 mph occur in conjunction with surface RH values near 15% and receptive fuels. However, the brief/spotty nature of these conditions precludes the introduction of a fire weather area. ...Northern California... Locally elevated fire weather conditions are possible late this evening and into tonight across eastern portions of the Northern Coast Ranges, as a tightening surface pressure gradient coupled with overlapping enhanced mid-level flow promotes increasingly gusty surface winds amidst pockets of poor overnight RH recoveries. A fire area may be needed in a future update if trends in guidance suggest greater coverage of elevated fire weather conditions. ..Elliott.. 09/22/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0126 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2019 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... An area of mid-level ridging is forecast to move from portions of the Great Basin toward the central/northern Plains through tonight. Meanwhile, a large upstream mid/upper-level trough -- and associated area of enhanced mid-level flow -- is forecast to come onshore across portions of northern California, Oregon, and Washington late this afternoon and into the overnight. ...Nevada... A few hours of locally elevated fire weather conditions are possible this afternoon across portions of central/southwest Nevada, where sustained surface winds of 10-15 mph occur in conjunction with surface RH values near 15% and receptive fuels. However, the brief/spotty nature of these conditions precludes the introduction of a fire weather area. ...Northern California... Locally elevated fire weather conditions are possible late this evening and into tonight across eastern portions of the Northern Coast Ranges, as a tightening surface pressure gradient coupled with overlapping enhanced mid-level flow promotes increasingly gusty surface winds amidst pockets of poor overnight RH recoveries. A fire area may be needed in a future update if trends in guidance suggest greater coverage of elevated fire weather conditions. ..Elliott.. 09/22/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1248 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2019 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...OZARKS...MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES... CORRECTED FOR WORDING ...SUMMARY... Scattered storms capable of marginally severe wind gusts and hail will be possible from the southern Plains northeastward into the southern Great Lakes region this afternoon. ...Southern Plains/Ozarks/Mid Mississippi Valley/Southern Great Lakes... A southwest mid-level flow pattern will be in place today from the Great Plains into the Great Lakes as an upper-level trough moves across the High Plains. A cold front will advance southeastward into the southern Plains, Ozarks and mid Mississippi Valley. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s F will contribute to some destabilization. This combined with large-scale ascent associated with the High Plains upper-level trough will result in scattered convective initiation along the moist corridor by afternoon. A low-level jet oriented southwest-to-northeast ahead of the front will also provide support for convective development. In addition to the moist airmass, moderate deep-layer shear is forecast to be in place along the front. The shear along with steepening low-level lapse rates will support a marginal wind damage threat during the mid to late afternoon. Hail will also accompany the stronger updrafts. At this point, instability is forecast to be the greatest in the southern Plains where the chance of a marginal severe threat appears to be slightly greater than in areas further to the northeast. ..Broyles/Elliott.. 09/22/2019 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1248 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2019 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...OZARKS...MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES... CORRECTED FOR WORDING ...SUMMARY... Scattered storms capable of marginally severe wind gusts and hail will be possible from the southern Plains northeastward into the southern Great Lakes region this afternoon. ...Southern Plains/Ozarks/Mid Mississippi Valley/Southern Great Lakes... A southwest mid-level flow pattern will be in place today from the Great Plains into the Great Lakes as an upper-level trough moves across the High Plains. A cold front will advance southeastward into the southern Plains, Ozarks and mid Mississippi Valley. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s F will contribute to some destabilization. This combined with large-scale ascent associated with the High Plains upper-level trough will result in scattered convective initiation along the moist corridor by afternoon. A low-level jet oriented southwest-to-northeast ahead of the front will also provide support for convective development. In addition to the moist airmass, moderate deep-layer shear is forecast to be in place along the front. The shear along with steepening low-level lapse rates will support a marginal wind damage threat during the mid to late afternoon. Hail will also accompany the stronger updrafts. At this point, instability is forecast to be the greatest in the southern Plains where the chance of a marginal severe threat appears to be slightly greater than in areas further to the northeast. ..Broyles/Elliott.. 09/22/2019 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1248 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2019 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...OZARKS...MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES... CORRECTED FOR WORDING ...SUMMARY... Scattered storms capable of marginally severe wind gusts and hail will be possible from the southern Plains northeastward into the southern Great Lakes region this afternoon. ...Southern Plains/Ozarks/Mid Mississippi Valley/Southern Great Lakes... A southwest mid-level flow pattern will be in place today from the Great Plains into the Great Lakes as an upper-level trough moves across the High Plains. A cold front will advance southeastward into the southern Plains, Ozarks and mid Mississippi Valley. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s F will contribute to some destabilization. This combined with large-scale ascent associated with the High Plains upper-level trough will result in scattered convective initiation along the moist corridor by afternoon. A low-level jet oriented southwest-to-northeast ahead of the front will also provide support for convective development. In addition to the moist airmass, moderate deep-layer shear is forecast to be in place along the front. The shear along with steepening low-level lapse rates will support a marginal wind damage threat during the mid to late afternoon. Hail will also accompany the stronger updrafts. At this point, instability is forecast to be the greatest in the southern Plains where the chance of a marginal severe threat appears to be slightly greater than in areas further to the northeast. ..Broyles/Elliott.. 09/22/2019 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1248 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2019 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...OZARKS...MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES... CORRECTED FOR WORDING ...SUMMARY... Scattered storms capable of marginally severe wind gusts and hail will be possible from the southern Plains northeastward into the southern Great Lakes region this afternoon. ...Southern Plains/Ozarks/Mid Mississippi Valley/Southern Great Lakes... A southwest mid-level flow pattern will be in place today from the Great Plains into the Great Lakes as an upper-level trough moves across the High Plains. A cold front will advance southeastward into the southern Plains, Ozarks and mid Mississippi Valley. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s F will contribute to some destabilization. This combined with large-scale ascent associated with the High Plains upper-level trough will result in scattered convective initiation along the moist corridor by afternoon. A low-level jet oriented southwest-to-northeast ahead of the front will also provide support for convective development. In addition to the moist airmass, moderate deep-layer shear is forecast to be in place along the front. The shear along with steepening low-level lapse rates will support a marginal wind damage threat during the mid to late afternoon. Hail will also accompany the stronger updrafts. At this point, instability is forecast to be the greatest in the southern Plains where the chance of a marginal severe threat appears to be slightly greater than in areas further to the northeast. ..Broyles/Elliott.. 09/22/2019 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1248 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2019 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...OZARKS...MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES... CORRECTED FOR WORDING ...SUMMARY... Scattered storms capable of marginally severe wind gusts and hail will be possible from the southern Plains northeastward into the southern Great Lakes region this afternoon. ...Southern Plains/Ozarks/Mid Mississippi Valley/Southern Great Lakes... A southwest mid-level flow pattern will be in place today from the Great Plains into the Great Lakes as an upper-level trough moves across the High Plains. A cold front will advance southeastward into the southern Plains, Ozarks and mid Mississippi Valley. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s F will contribute to some destabilization. This combined with large-scale ascent associated with the High Plains upper-level trough will result in scattered convective initiation along the moist corridor by afternoon. A low-level jet oriented southwest-to-northeast ahead of the front will also provide support for convective development. In addition to the moist airmass, moderate deep-layer shear is forecast to be in place along the front. The shear along with steepening low-level lapse rates will support a marginal wind damage threat during the mid to late afternoon. Hail will also accompany the stronger updrafts. At this point, instability is forecast to be the greatest in the southern Plains where the chance of a marginal severe threat appears to be slightly greater than in areas further to the northeast. ..Broyles/Elliott.. 09/22/2019 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2019 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ARIZONA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered storms, some severe with damaging wind and hail, are expected over much of Arizona Monday. ...Arizona... An upper low will drop south from NV toward the lower Colorado River Valley, providing large-scale lift as well as increasing shear profiles. At the surface, southern winds will persist over southeast CA into southern AZ ahead of the developing cold front. Heating as well as gulf moisture with 60s F dewpoints will result in MLCAPE on the order of 1000-1500 J/kg with little if any capping. Severe storms, including damaging wind gusts and hail, will develop during the afternoon over southern and central AZ, and possibly extreme eastern CA and southern NV where heating will be maximized. Low-level winds will be generally weak, but beneath increasing southwesterlies aloft. This will elongate hodographs, which will be mainly straight-line, supporting splitting cells capable of hail. Some cells may bow and produce damaging winds as well. Sporadic strong to severe storms will be possible late into the night over southern AZ as the air mass remains unstable prior to the cold front passage. ...Northeastern states... A potent shortwave trough will move rapidly east from the Great Lakes into the Northeast, providing increasing deep-layer shear as well as lift. At the surface, a narrow plume of low 60s F dewpoints will spread northward ahead of a cold front which will move across NY and PA during the day, and across New England overnight. Despite increasing wind fields, instability is forecast to be weak, averaging just a few hundred J/kg, and with poor deep-layer lapse rates. This should result in primarily non-severe storms along the cold front, capable of a few strong wind gusts as low-level mean winds average around 35 kt. ...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD... Tornado: 2% - Marginal Wind: 15% - Slight Hail: 15% - Slight ..Jewell.. 09/22/2019 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2019 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ARIZONA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered storms, some severe with damaging wind and hail, are expected over much of Arizona Monday. ...Arizona... An upper low will drop south from NV toward the lower Colorado River Valley, providing large-scale lift as well as increasing shear profiles. At the surface, southern winds will persist over southeast CA into southern AZ ahead of the developing cold front. Heating as well as gulf moisture with 60s F dewpoints will result in MLCAPE on the order of 1000-1500 J/kg with little if any capping. Severe storms, including damaging wind gusts and hail, will develop during the afternoon over southern and central AZ, and possibly extreme eastern CA and southern NV where heating will be maximized. Low-level winds will be generally weak, but beneath increasing southwesterlies aloft. This will elongate hodographs, which will be mainly straight-line, supporting splitting cells capable of hail. Some cells may bow and produce damaging winds as well. Sporadic strong to severe storms will be possible late into the night over southern AZ as the air mass remains unstable prior to the cold front passage. ...Northeastern states... A potent shortwave trough will move rapidly east from the Great Lakes into the Northeast, providing increasing deep-layer shear as well as lift. At the surface, a narrow plume of low 60s F dewpoints will spread northward ahead of a cold front which will move across NY and PA during the day, and across New England overnight. Despite increasing wind fields, instability is forecast to be weak, averaging just a few hundred J/kg, and with poor deep-layer lapse rates. This should result in primarily non-severe storms along the cold front, capable of a few strong wind gusts as low-level mean winds average around 35 kt. ...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD... Tornado: 2% - Marginal Wind: 15% - Slight Hail: 15% - Slight ..Jewell.. 09/22/2019 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2019 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ARIZONA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered storms, some severe with damaging wind and hail, are expected over much of Arizona Monday. ...Arizona... An upper low will drop south from NV toward the lower Colorado River Valley, providing large-scale lift as well as increasing shear profiles. At the surface, southern winds will persist over southeast CA into southern AZ ahead of the developing cold front. Heating as well as gulf moisture with 60s F dewpoints will result in MLCAPE on the order of 1000-1500 J/kg with little if any capping. Severe storms, including damaging wind gusts and hail, will develop during the afternoon over southern and central AZ, and possibly extreme eastern CA and southern NV where heating will be maximized. Low-level winds will be generally weak, but beneath increasing southwesterlies aloft. This will elongate hodographs, which will be mainly straight-line, supporting splitting cells capable of hail. Some cells may bow and produce damaging winds as well. Sporadic strong to severe storms will be possible late into the night over southern AZ as the air mass remains unstable prior to the cold front passage. ...Northeastern states... A potent shortwave trough will move rapidly east from the Great Lakes into the Northeast, providing increasing deep-layer shear as well as lift. At the surface, a narrow plume of low 60s F dewpoints will spread northward ahead of a cold front which will move across NY and PA during the day, and across New England overnight. Despite increasing wind fields, instability is forecast to be weak, averaging just a few hundred J/kg, and with poor deep-layer lapse rates. This should result in primarily non-severe storms along the cold front, capable of a few strong wind gusts as low-level mean winds average around 35 kt. ...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD... Tornado: 2% - Marginal Wind: 15% - Slight Hail: 15% - Slight ..Jewell.. 09/22/2019 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2019 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ARIZONA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered storms, some severe with damaging wind and hail, are expected over much of Arizona Monday. ...Arizona... An upper low will drop south from NV toward the lower Colorado River Valley, providing large-scale lift as well as increasing shear profiles. At the surface, southern winds will persist over southeast CA into southern AZ ahead of the developing cold front. Heating as well as gulf moisture with 60s F dewpoints will result in MLCAPE on the order of 1000-1500 J/kg with little if any capping. Severe storms, including damaging wind gusts and hail, will develop during the afternoon over southern and central AZ, and possibly extreme eastern CA and southern NV where heating will be maximized. Low-level winds will be generally weak, but beneath increasing southwesterlies aloft. This will elongate hodographs, which will be mainly straight-line, supporting splitting cells capable of hail. Some cells may bow and produce damaging winds as well. Sporadic strong to severe storms will be possible late into the night over southern AZ as the air mass remains unstable prior to the cold front passage. ...Northeastern states... A potent shortwave trough will move rapidly east from the Great Lakes into the Northeast, providing increasing deep-layer shear as well as lift. At the surface, a narrow plume of low 60s F dewpoints will spread northward ahead of a cold front which will move across NY and PA during the day, and across New England overnight. Despite increasing wind fields, instability is forecast to be weak, averaging just a few hundred J/kg, and with poor deep-layer lapse rates. This should result in primarily non-severe storms along the cold front, capable of a few strong wind gusts as low-level mean winds average around 35 kt. ...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD... Tornado: 2% - Marginal Wind: 15% - Slight Hail: 15% - Slight ..Jewell.. 09/22/2019 Read more

WW 0657 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 657 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 S HLC TO 20 SSE SLN. ..SPC..09/22/19 ATTN...WFO...ICT...TOP...DDC...GID...OAX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 657 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC027-029-041-051-053-061-089-105-117-123-127-131-141-143-149- 157-161-163-167-169-183-195-197-201-220440- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CLAY CLOUD DICKINSON ELLIS ELLSWORTH GEARY JEWELL LINCOLN MARSHALL MITCHELL MORRIS NEMAHA OSBORNE OTTAWA POTTAWATOMIE REPUBLIC RILEY ROOKS RUSSELL SALINE SMITH TREGO WABAUNSEE WASHINGTON NEC025-059-067-095-097-109-127-129-131-133-147-151-153-169- 220440- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CASS FILLMORE GAGE JEFFERSON JOHNSON LANCASTER NEMAHA NUCKOLLS OTOE Read more

WW 657 SEVERE TSTM KS NE 212210Z - 220500Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 657 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 510 PM CDT Sat Sep 21 2019 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Southwest to northeast Kansas Southeast Nebraska * Effective this Saturday afternoon from 510 PM until Midnight CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms will develop this evening from southwest Kansas into southeast Nebraska with primary threats of large hail and damaging wind. This activity should evolve into one or more clusters with the severe threat waning towards late evening as it transitions to predominantly a heavy rainfall hazard. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 70 statute miles east and west of a line from 35 miles northeast of Beatrice NE to 10 miles east southeast of Dodge City KS. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 25035. ...Grams Read more

MD 2000 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 657... FOR KS...SOUTHWEST IA...NORTHWEST MO
Mesoscale Discussion 2000 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1032 PM CDT Sat Sep 21 2019 Areas affected...KS...Southwest IA...Northwest MO Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 657... Valid 220332Z - 220530Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 657 continues. SUMMARY...Severe threat is gradually shifting east and waning. New WW is not anticipated. DISCUSSION...Isolated severe wind gusts have been noted within the last hour along strongest portion of the squall line near CNK. This activity is shifting east along the NE/KS border and should progress east of ww657 in the next 1-2hr as LLJ focuses into this portion of the eastern Plains. While convection should remain organized, overall severe threat appears to be decreasing, especially as thunderstorms shift east of the MO river. A new WW is not anticipated downstream. ..Darrow.. 09/22/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD... LAT...LON 38920084 39799779 41489533 40269485 38699759 38400062 38920084 Read more

WW 0657 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 657 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..DARROW..09/22/19 ATTN...WFO...ICT...TOP...DDC...GID...OAX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 657 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC009-027-029-041-047-051-053-055-057-061-067-069-081-083-089- 101-105-113-117-123-127-131-135-141-143-145-149-157-159-161-163- 165-167-169-183-185-195-197-201-220240- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARTON CLAY CLOUD DICKINSON EDWARDS ELLIS ELLSWORTH FINNEY FORD GEARY GRANT GRAY HASKELL HODGEMAN JEWELL LANE LINCOLN MCPHERSON MARSHALL MITCHELL MORRIS NEMAHA NESS OSBORNE OTTAWA PAWNEE POTTAWATOMIE REPUBLIC RICE RILEY ROOKS RUSH RUSSELL SALINE SMITH STAFFORD TREGO WABAUNSEE WASHINGTON NEC025-055-059-067-095-097-109-127-129-131-133-147-151-153-155- 169-220240- NE Read more