Severe Storms

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0342 AM CDT Sat Aug 10 2019 Valid 131200Z - 181200Z ...DISCUSSION... Model consensus is that the synoptic upper pattern will trend to a quasi-zonal regime over most of the northern tier states days 4-5 before another upper trough amplifies over the Pacific Northwest and moves into the northern Plains in the 6-7 day time frame. The richer moisture will be shunted south of the stronger winds aloft by a cold front advancing southeast through the OH Valley region days 4-5. However, by days 6-7 moisture will gradually return through the Plains downstream from an approaching northern stream trough. While at least a modest threat for severe weather may exist along front from the Middle Atlantic into the southern portion of the OH Valley day 4, and then the northern Plains days 6-7, overall predictability with this pattern remains low. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0342 AM CDT Sat Aug 10 2019 Valid 131200Z - 181200Z ...DISCUSSION... Model consensus is that the synoptic upper pattern will trend to a quasi-zonal regime over most of the northern tier states days 4-5 before another upper trough amplifies over the Pacific Northwest and moves into the northern Plains in the 6-7 day time frame. The richer moisture will be shunted south of the stronger winds aloft by a cold front advancing southeast through the OH Valley region days 4-5. However, by days 6-7 moisture will gradually return through the Plains downstream from an approaching northern stream trough. While at least a modest threat for severe weather may exist along front from the Middle Atlantic into the southern portion of the OH Valley day 4, and then the northern Plains days 6-7, overall predictability with this pattern remains low. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0342 AM CDT Sat Aug 10 2019 Valid 131200Z - 181200Z ...DISCUSSION... Model consensus is that the synoptic upper pattern will trend to a quasi-zonal regime over most of the northern tier states days 4-5 before another upper trough amplifies over the Pacific Northwest and moves into the northern Plains in the 6-7 day time frame. The richer moisture will be shunted south of the stronger winds aloft by a cold front advancing southeast through the OH Valley region days 4-5. However, by days 6-7 moisture will gradually return through the Plains downstream from an approaching northern stream trough. While at least a modest threat for severe weather may exist along front from the Middle Atlantic into the southern portion of the OH Valley day 4, and then the northern Plains days 6-7, overall predictability with this pattern remains low. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0342 AM CDT Sat Aug 10 2019 Valid 131200Z - 181200Z ...DISCUSSION... Model consensus is that the synoptic upper pattern will trend to a quasi-zonal regime over most of the northern tier states days 4-5 before another upper trough amplifies over the Pacific Northwest and moves into the northern Plains in the 6-7 day time frame. The richer moisture will be shunted south of the stronger winds aloft by a cold front advancing southeast through the OH Valley region days 4-5. However, by days 6-7 moisture will gradually return through the Plains downstream from an approaching northern stream trough. While at least a modest threat for severe weather may exist along front from the Middle Atlantic into the southern portion of the OH Valley day 4, and then the northern Plains days 6-7, overall predictability with this pattern remains low. Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Sat Aug 10 2019 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE MIDDLE AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE OHIO VALLEY REGION... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms with damaging wind will be possible on Monday, mainly from a portion of the Middle Mississippi Valley to the Ohio Valley. ...Middle Mississippi Valley and Ohio Valley regions... Northern-stream upper trough will deamplify further Monday as it continues through the northern Plains and before turning southeast into the upper MS Valley. Farther south, a convectively enhanced shortwave trough will move from eastern NE through IA and into the southern Great Lakes and OH Valley. Storms should be ongoing north of a stalled front from eastern NE into IA in association with the shortwave trough. These storms will continue east within zone of isentropic ascent north of the front and on nose of an eastward- migrating low-level jet. Moderate instability is expected in warm sector as the moist boundary layer warms. Theta-e advection and ascent along the low-level jet may promote additional storm development and intensification in vicinity of the front and along southern periphery of the MCS. Wind profiles with 40 + kt effective bulk shear will support organized storm structures with damaging wind the primary threat. Activity will spread east during the evening into the southern Great Lakes and OH Valley regions. ..Dial.. 08/10/2019 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Sat Aug 10 2019 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE MIDDLE AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE OHIO VALLEY REGION... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms with damaging wind will be possible on Monday, mainly from a portion of the Middle Mississippi Valley to the Ohio Valley. ...Middle Mississippi Valley and Ohio Valley regions... Northern-stream upper trough will deamplify further Monday as it continues through the northern Plains and before turning southeast into the upper MS Valley. Farther south, a convectively enhanced shortwave trough will move from eastern NE through IA and into the southern Great Lakes and OH Valley. Storms should be ongoing north of a stalled front from eastern NE into IA in association with the shortwave trough. These storms will continue east within zone of isentropic ascent north of the front and on nose of an eastward- migrating low-level jet. Moderate instability is expected in warm sector as the moist boundary layer warms. Theta-e advection and ascent along the low-level jet may promote additional storm development and intensification in vicinity of the front and along southern periphery of the MCS. Wind profiles with 40 + kt effective bulk shear will support organized storm structures with damaging wind the primary threat. Activity will spread east during the evening into the southern Great Lakes and OH Valley regions. ..Dial.. 08/10/2019 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Sat Aug 10 2019 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE MIDDLE AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE OHIO VALLEY REGION... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms with damaging wind will be possible on Monday, mainly from a portion of the Middle Mississippi Valley to the Ohio Valley. ...Middle Mississippi Valley and Ohio Valley regions... Northern-stream upper trough will deamplify further Monday as it continues through the northern Plains and before turning southeast into the upper MS Valley. Farther south, a convectively enhanced shortwave trough will move from eastern NE through IA and into the southern Great Lakes and OH Valley. Storms should be ongoing north of a stalled front from eastern NE into IA in association with the shortwave trough. These storms will continue east within zone of isentropic ascent north of the front and on nose of an eastward- migrating low-level jet. Moderate instability is expected in warm sector as the moist boundary layer warms. Theta-e advection and ascent along the low-level jet may promote additional storm development and intensification in vicinity of the front and along southern periphery of the MCS. Wind profiles with 40 + kt effective bulk shear will support organized storm structures with damaging wind the primary threat. Activity will spread east during the evening into the southern Great Lakes and OH Valley regions. ..Dial.. 08/10/2019 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Sat Aug 10 2019 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE MIDDLE AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE OHIO VALLEY REGION... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms with damaging wind will be possible on Monday, mainly from a portion of the Middle Mississippi Valley to the Ohio Valley. ...Middle Mississippi Valley and Ohio Valley regions... Northern-stream upper trough will deamplify further Monday as it continues through the northern Plains and before turning southeast into the upper MS Valley. Farther south, a convectively enhanced shortwave trough will move from eastern NE through IA and into the southern Great Lakes and OH Valley. Storms should be ongoing north of a stalled front from eastern NE into IA in association with the shortwave trough. These storms will continue east within zone of isentropic ascent north of the front and on nose of an eastward- migrating low-level jet. Moderate instability is expected in warm sector as the moist boundary layer warms. Theta-e advection and ascent along the low-level jet may promote additional storm development and intensification in vicinity of the front and along southern periphery of the MCS. Wind profiles with 40 + kt effective bulk shear will support organized storm structures with damaging wind the primary threat. Activity will spread east during the evening into the southern Great Lakes and OH Valley regions. ..Dial.. 08/10/2019 Read more

MD 1684 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA
Mesoscale Discussion 1684 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0109 AM CDT Sat Aug 10 2019 Areas affected...Parts of south central Nebraska Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 100609Z - 100815Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...Isolated strong storms may continue to pose a risk for severe hail and locally strong surface gusts south of Broken Bow into the Kearney, Lexington and Holdrege areas of south central Nebraska through 3-5 AM CDT. DISCUSSION...Strong thunderstorm development continues, mainly focused across central Nebraska, near the Broken Bow area, where a couple of storms may still be producing severe hail and locally strong surface gusts. Even this activity has exhibited recent weakening trends, and there appears little mid/upper support. However, convection has been focused within stronger low-level warm advection, aided by the nocturnal southerly low-level jet, along the eastern periphery of a low-level moist axis which is contributing to CAPE of 1500-3000 J/kg. In the presence of strong vertical shear, beneath modest northwesterly mid-level flow, occasional re-intensification of an isolated storm or two might still be possible, with a tendency for convection to propagate southward toward the Kearney, Holdrege, Lexington areas through 8-10Z. ..Kerr/Thompson.. 08/10/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF... LAT...LON 41589986 41289894 41049856 40609833 40199898 40379979 41589986 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1256 AM CDT Sat Aug 10 2019 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER A PORTION OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Areas of strong to severe storms are expected over portions of the northern through central High Plains Sunday into Sunday night. ...Synopsis... Upper trough now approaching northern CA will transition to an open wave and continue through the northern Rockies and northern High Plains Sunday and Sunday night, flattening the northern periphery of an upper ridge centered over the southern Plains. By 12Z Sunday a cold front will extend from northern MN southwest into northeast WY. The western extension of this boundary will stall before moving north as a warm front through eastern MT. A secondary front will extend from a weak surface low in IA westward through southern NE. The western extension of this boundary will stall near the KS/NE border. ...Central High Plains region... Model consensus is that storms may be ongoing over a portion of northern KS into southern NE within zone of isentropic ascent on nose of a southerly low-level jet. This activity is expected to shift east and diminish during the day. In wake of morning storms, rich low-level moisture with mid-upper 60s F dewpoints and diabatic warming will support a corridor of moderate to strong instability (2000-2500 J/kg MLCAPE) in vicinity of the stalled front. Easterly upslope flow will exist north of this boundary, and storms are expected to develop over the higher terrain as well as near the front/lee trough intersection during the late afternoon and spread east during the evening. Belt of moderate (35-40 kt) southwesterly mid-level winds will develop in gradient zone between the ejecting upper trough and the southern Plains upper ridge supporting 40-45 kt effective bulk shear, especially in vicinity of the front where surface winds will be backed to east southeast. Some supercell structures appear likely as the initial storm mode, before evolving into lines/clusters and spreading east through NE overnight. Large hail and damaging wind will be the primary threats, through a couple of tornadoes will also be possible. ...Northern Rockies through northern High Plains... Moist axis will be shunted southwestward by the south-advancing cold front, before retreating back north as a warm front through eastern MT. The corridor of modest low-level moisture with upper 50s F dewpoints beneath steep mid-level lapse rates will support moderate instability (1500-2000 J/kg from central MT through northeast WY and possibly southwest SD as the surface layer warms during the afternoon. Storms are expected to develop over the higher terrain and spread northeast through the relatively narrow instability corridor during the afternoon and early evening. A belt of stronger winds aloft accompanying the upper trough will support 40-45 kt effective bulk shear supportive of organized storms including a few supercells with large hail and damaging wind the main threats. ...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD... Tornado: 5% - Slight Wind: 30% - Enhanced Hail: 30% - Enhanced ..Dial.. 08/10/2019 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1256 AM CDT Sat Aug 10 2019 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER A PORTION OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Areas of strong to severe storms are expected over portions of the northern through central High Plains Sunday into Sunday night. ...Synopsis... Upper trough now approaching northern CA will transition to an open wave and continue through the northern Rockies and northern High Plains Sunday and Sunday night, flattening the northern periphery of an upper ridge centered over the southern Plains. By 12Z Sunday a cold front will extend from northern MN southwest into northeast WY. The western extension of this boundary will stall before moving north as a warm front through eastern MT. A secondary front will extend from a weak surface low in IA westward through southern NE. The western extension of this boundary will stall near the KS/NE border. ...Central High Plains region... Model consensus is that storms may be ongoing over a portion of northern KS into southern NE within zone of isentropic ascent on nose of a southerly low-level jet. This activity is expected to shift east and diminish during the day. In wake of morning storms, rich low-level moisture with mid-upper 60s F dewpoints and diabatic warming will support a corridor of moderate to strong instability (2000-2500 J/kg MLCAPE) in vicinity of the stalled front. Easterly upslope flow will exist north of this boundary, and storms are expected to develop over the higher terrain as well as near the front/lee trough intersection during the late afternoon and spread east during the evening. Belt of moderate (35-40 kt) southwesterly mid-level winds will develop in gradient zone between the ejecting upper trough and the southern Plains upper ridge supporting 40-45 kt effective bulk shear, especially in vicinity of the front where surface winds will be backed to east southeast. Some supercell structures appear likely as the initial storm mode, before evolving into lines/clusters and spreading east through NE overnight. Large hail and damaging wind will be the primary threats, through a couple of tornadoes will also be possible. ...Northern Rockies through northern High Plains... Moist axis will be shunted southwestward by the south-advancing cold front, before retreating back north as a warm front through eastern MT. The corridor of modest low-level moisture with upper 50s F dewpoints beneath steep mid-level lapse rates will support moderate instability (1500-2000 J/kg from central MT through northeast WY and possibly southwest SD as the surface layer warms during the afternoon. Storms are expected to develop over the higher terrain and spread northeast through the relatively narrow instability corridor during the afternoon and early evening. A belt of stronger winds aloft accompanying the upper trough will support 40-45 kt effective bulk shear supportive of organized storms including a few supercells with large hail and damaging wind the main threats. ...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD... Tornado: 5% - Slight Wind: 30% - Enhanced Hail: 30% - Enhanced ..Dial.. 08/10/2019 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1256 AM CDT Sat Aug 10 2019 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER A PORTION OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Areas of strong to severe storms are expected over portions of the northern through central High Plains Sunday into Sunday night. ...Synopsis... Upper trough now approaching northern CA will transition to an open wave and continue through the northern Rockies and northern High Plains Sunday and Sunday night, flattening the northern periphery of an upper ridge centered over the southern Plains. By 12Z Sunday a cold front will extend from northern MN southwest into northeast WY. The western extension of this boundary will stall before moving north as a warm front through eastern MT. A secondary front will extend from a weak surface low in IA westward through southern NE. The western extension of this boundary will stall near the KS/NE border. ...Central High Plains region... Model consensus is that storms may be ongoing over a portion of northern KS into southern NE within zone of isentropic ascent on nose of a southerly low-level jet. This activity is expected to shift east and diminish during the day. In wake of morning storms, rich low-level moisture with mid-upper 60s F dewpoints and diabatic warming will support a corridor of moderate to strong instability (2000-2500 J/kg MLCAPE) in vicinity of the stalled front. Easterly upslope flow will exist north of this boundary, and storms are expected to develop over the higher terrain as well as near the front/lee trough intersection during the late afternoon and spread east during the evening. Belt of moderate (35-40 kt) southwesterly mid-level winds will develop in gradient zone between the ejecting upper trough and the southern Plains upper ridge supporting 40-45 kt effective bulk shear, especially in vicinity of the front where surface winds will be backed to east southeast. Some supercell structures appear likely as the initial storm mode, before evolving into lines/clusters and spreading east through NE overnight. Large hail and damaging wind will be the primary threats, through a couple of tornadoes will also be possible. ...Northern Rockies through northern High Plains... Moist axis will be shunted southwestward by the south-advancing cold front, before retreating back north as a warm front through eastern MT. The corridor of modest low-level moisture with upper 50s F dewpoints beneath steep mid-level lapse rates will support moderate instability (1500-2000 J/kg from central MT through northeast WY and possibly southwest SD as the surface layer warms during the afternoon. Storms are expected to develop over the higher terrain and spread northeast through the relatively narrow instability corridor during the afternoon and early evening. A belt of stronger winds aloft accompanying the upper trough will support 40-45 kt effective bulk shear supportive of organized storms including a few supercells with large hail and damaging wind the main threats. ...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD... Tornado: 5% - Slight Wind: 30% - Enhanced Hail: 30% - Enhanced ..Dial.. 08/10/2019 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1256 AM CDT Sat Aug 10 2019 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER A PORTION OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Areas of strong to severe storms are expected over portions of the northern through central High Plains Sunday into Sunday night. ...Synopsis... Upper trough now approaching northern CA will transition to an open wave and continue through the northern Rockies and northern High Plains Sunday and Sunday night, flattening the northern periphery of an upper ridge centered over the southern Plains. By 12Z Sunday a cold front will extend from northern MN southwest into northeast WY. The western extension of this boundary will stall before moving north as a warm front through eastern MT. A secondary front will extend from a weak surface low in IA westward through southern NE. The western extension of this boundary will stall near the KS/NE border. ...Central High Plains region... Model consensus is that storms may be ongoing over a portion of northern KS into southern NE within zone of isentropic ascent on nose of a southerly low-level jet. This activity is expected to shift east and diminish during the day. In wake of morning storms, rich low-level moisture with mid-upper 60s F dewpoints and diabatic warming will support a corridor of moderate to strong instability (2000-2500 J/kg MLCAPE) in vicinity of the stalled front. Easterly upslope flow will exist north of this boundary, and storms are expected to develop over the higher terrain as well as near the front/lee trough intersection during the late afternoon and spread east during the evening. Belt of moderate (35-40 kt) southwesterly mid-level winds will develop in gradient zone between the ejecting upper trough and the southern Plains upper ridge supporting 40-45 kt effective bulk shear, especially in vicinity of the front where surface winds will be backed to east southeast. Some supercell structures appear likely as the initial storm mode, before evolving into lines/clusters and spreading east through NE overnight. Large hail and damaging wind will be the primary threats, through a couple of tornadoes will also be possible. ...Northern Rockies through northern High Plains... Moist axis will be shunted southwestward by the south-advancing cold front, before retreating back north as a warm front through eastern MT. The corridor of modest low-level moisture with upper 50s F dewpoints beneath steep mid-level lapse rates will support moderate instability (1500-2000 J/kg from central MT through northeast WY and possibly southwest SD as the surface layer warms during the afternoon. Storms are expected to develop over the higher terrain and spread northeast through the relatively narrow instability corridor during the afternoon and early evening. A belt of stronger winds aloft accompanying the upper trough will support 40-45 kt effective bulk shear supportive of organized storms including a few supercells with large hail and damaging wind the main threats. ...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD... Tornado: 5% - Slight Wind: 30% - Enhanced Hail: 30% - Enhanced ..Dial.. 08/10/2019 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1256 AM CDT Sat Aug 10 2019 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER A PORTION OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Areas of strong to severe storms are expected over portions of the northern through central High Plains Sunday into Sunday night. ...Synopsis... Upper trough now approaching northern CA will transition to an open wave and continue through the northern Rockies and northern High Plains Sunday and Sunday night, flattening the northern periphery of an upper ridge centered over the southern Plains. By 12Z Sunday a cold front will extend from northern MN southwest into northeast WY. The western extension of this boundary will stall before moving north as a warm front through eastern MT. A secondary front will extend from a weak surface low in IA westward through southern NE. The western extension of this boundary will stall near the KS/NE border. ...Central High Plains region... Model consensus is that storms may be ongoing over a portion of northern KS into southern NE within zone of isentropic ascent on nose of a southerly low-level jet. This activity is expected to shift east and diminish during the day. In wake of morning storms, rich low-level moisture with mid-upper 60s F dewpoints and diabatic warming will support a corridor of moderate to strong instability (2000-2500 J/kg MLCAPE) in vicinity of the stalled front. Easterly upslope flow will exist north of this boundary, and storms are expected to develop over the higher terrain as well as near the front/lee trough intersection during the late afternoon and spread east during the evening. Belt of moderate (35-40 kt) southwesterly mid-level winds will develop in gradient zone between the ejecting upper trough and the southern Plains upper ridge supporting 40-45 kt effective bulk shear, especially in vicinity of the front where surface winds will be backed to east southeast. Some supercell structures appear likely as the initial storm mode, before evolving into lines/clusters and spreading east through NE overnight. Large hail and damaging wind will be the primary threats, through a couple of tornadoes will also be possible. ...Northern Rockies through northern High Plains... Moist axis will be shunted southwestward by the south-advancing cold front, before retreating back north as a warm front through eastern MT. The corridor of modest low-level moisture with upper 50s F dewpoints beneath steep mid-level lapse rates will support moderate instability (1500-2000 J/kg from central MT through northeast WY and possibly southwest SD as the surface layer warms during the afternoon. Storms are expected to develop over the higher terrain and spread northeast through the relatively narrow instability corridor during the afternoon and early evening. A belt of stronger winds aloft accompanying the upper trough will support 40-45 kt effective bulk shear supportive of organized storms including a few supercells with large hail and damaging wind the main threats. ...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD... Tornado: 5% - Slight Wind: 30% - Enhanced Hail: 30% - Enhanced ..Dial.. 08/10/2019 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1247 AM CDT Sat Aug 10 2019 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...Synopsis... Fire weather conditions will gradually improve some as a persistent West Coast mid-level low weakens and migrates northeastward toward the central Rockies. Most of the thunderstorm potential evident over OR/CA and vicinity the past few days will lessen in the midst of subsidence aloft west of the mid-level trough. Meanwhile, slackening flow aloft over the Great Basin will result in weaker winds and a lessened (locally elevated) fire weather threat in these areas. A lingering risk of elevated fire weather will extend from eastern Idaho into western Wyoming Sunday afternoon. ...Eastern Idaho, far northern Utah, and western Wyoming... As the mid-level wave ejects northeastward, a belt of enhanced mid-level flow will migrate away from the western Great Basin and reach the discussion area during peak heating hours. Vertical mixing processes beneath this flow will result in areas of 15-25 mph westerly surface flow for several hours. RH values will only flirt with critical thresholds on a limited/localized basis, however, and should mitigate the overall fire risk. Dry fuels should continue to support a risk of fire spread especially with ongoing fires, however. An isolated thunderstorm may also occur especially in eastern Idaho and vicinity, though coverage atop dry fuels currently does not warrant any dry thunder delineations for this outlook. ..Cook.. 08/10/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1247 AM CDT Sat Aug 10 2019 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...Synopsis... Fire weather conditions will gradually improve some as a persistent West Coast mid-level low weakens and migrates northeastward toward the central Rockies. Most of the thunderstorm potential evident over OR/CA and vicinity the past few days will lessen in the midst of subsidence aloft west of the mid-level trough. Meanwhile, slackening flow aloft over the Great Basin will result in weaker winds and a lessened (locally elevated) fire weather threat in these areas. A lingering risk of elevated fire weather will extend from eastern Idaho into western Wyoming Sunday afternoon. ...Eastern Idaho, far northern Utah, and western Wyoming... As the mid-level wave ejects northeastward, a belt of enhanced mid-level flow will migrate away from the western Great Basin and reach the discussion area during peak heating hours. Vertical mixing processes beneath this flow will result in areas of 15-25 mph westerly surface flow for several hours. RH values will only flirt with critical thresholds on a limited/localized basis, however, and should mitigate the overall fire risk. Dry fuels should continue to support a risk of fire spread especially with ongoing fires, however. An isolated thunderstorm may also occur especially in eastern Idaho and vicinity, though coverage atop dry fuels currently does not warrant any dry thunder delineations for this outlook. ..Cook.. 08/10/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1247 AM CDT Sat Aug 10 2019 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...Synopsis... Fire weather conditions will gradually improve some as a persistent West Coast mid-level low weakens and migrates northeastward toward the central Rockies. Most of the thunderstorm potential evident over OR/CA and vicinity the past few days will lessen in the midst of subsidence aloft west of the mid-level trough. Meanwhile, slackening flow aloft over the Great Basin will result in weaker winds and a lessened (locally elevated) fire weather threat in these areas. A lingering risk of elevated fire weather will extend from eastern Idaho into western Wyoming Sunday afternoon. ...Eastern Idaho, far northern Utah, and western Wyoming... As the mid-level wave ejects northeastward, a belt of enhanced mid-level flow will migrate away from the western Great Basin and reach the discussion area during peak heating hours. Vertical mixing processes beneath this flow will result in areas of 15-25 mph westerly surface flow for several hours. RH values will only flirt with critical thresholds on a limited/localized basis, however, and should mitigate the overall fire risk. Dry fuels should continue to support a risk of fire spread especially with ongoing fires, however. An isolated thunderstorm may also occur especially in eastern Idaho and vicinity, though coverage atop dry fuels currently does not warrant any dry thunder delineations for this outlook. ..Cook.. 08/10/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1247 AM CDT Sat Aug 10 2019 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...Synopsis... Fire weather conditions will gradually improve some as a persistent West Coast mid-level low weakens and migrates northeastward toward the central Rockies. Most of the thunderstorm potential evident over OR/CA and vicinity the past few days will lessen in the midst of subsidence aloft west of the mid-level trough. Meanwhile, slackening flow aloft over the Great Basin will result in weaker winds and a lessened (locally elevated) fire weather threat in these areas. A lingering risk of elevated fire weather will extend from eastern Idaho into western Wyoming Sunday afternoon. ...Eastern Idaho, far northern Utah, and western Wyoming... As the mid-level wave ejects northeastward, a belt of enhanced mid-level flow will migrate away from the western Great Basin and reach the discussion area during peak heating hours. Vertical mixing processes beneath this flow will result in areas of 15-25 mph westerly surface flow for several hours. RH values will only flirt with critical thresholds on a limited/localized basis, however, and should mitigate the overall fire risk. Dry fuels should continue to support a risk of fire spread especially with ongoing fires, however. An isolated thunderstorm may also occur especially in eastern Idaho and vicinity, though coverage atop dry fuels currently does not warrant any dry thunder delineations for this outlook. ..Cook.. 08/10/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1247 AM CDT Sat Aug 10 2019 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...Synopsis... Fire weather conditions will gradually improve some as a persistent West Coast mid-level low weakens and migrates northeastward toward the central Rockies. Most of the thunderstorm potential evident over OR/CA and vicinity the past few days will lessen in the midst of subsidence aloft west of the mid-level trough. Meanwhile, slackening flow aloft over the Great Basin will result in weaker winds and a lessened (locally elevated) fire weather threat in these areas. A lingering risk of elevated fire weather will extend from eastern Idaho into western Wyoming Sunday afternoon. ...Eastern Idaho, far northern Utah, and western Wyoming... As the mid-level wave ejects northeastward, a belt of enhanced mid-level flow will migrate away from the western Great Basin and reach the discussion area during peak heating hours. Vertical mixing processes beneath this flow will result in areas of 15-25 mph westerly surface flow for several hours. RH values will only flirt with critical thresholds on a limited/localized basis, however, and should mitigate the overall fire risk. Dry fuels should continue to support a risk of fire spread especially with ongoing fires, however. An isolated thunderstorm may also occur especially in eastern Idaho and vicinity, though coverage atop dry fuels currently does not warrant any dry thunder delineations for this outlook. ..Cook.. 08/10/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1247 AM CDT Sat Aug 10 2019 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR EAST-CENTRAL NEVADA AND FAR WESTERN UTAH... ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough just off the northern California coast will begin to transition into an open wave and take on a negative tilt while ejecting toward Idaho today. As this occurs, a belt of enhanced mid-level flow will shift eastward toward the western Great Basin, overspreading dry areas of NV/UT/ID during peak heating hours. Meanwhile, areas of thunderstorms will once again affect portions of the Northwest, with isolated dry thunderstorm potential expected during the afternoon, evening, and overnight. ...Eastern Nevada, western Utah, and eastern Idaho... Beneath the belt of enhanced mid/upper flow, vertical mixing processes and a favorable surface gradient will favor increased surface winds within this corridor during peak heating hours. Areas of 15-25 mph south-southwesterly winds will become common amidst critically low RH values and broad areas of dry fuels in areas unaffected by recent rainfall. At this time, it appears that the greatest confidence of critical fire weather thresholds being exceeded will occur across east-central NV, far west-central UT, although locally critical fire weather can be expected as far north as eastern Idaho. ...Northern California through Washington and eastward into western Idaho for thunderstorms... The presence of cool temperatures aloft associated with the mid-level trough resulted in broad areas of wetting thunderstorms especially from central into north-central Oregon this afternoon and evening. These wetting downpours have undoubtedly altered fuel states in several areas, and widespread wetting thunderstorms are also expected to develop and migrate from south to north this afternoon and evening also. The isolated dry thunder area covers the potential for dry lightning strikes on the periphery of wetting thunderstorm cores in areas that continue to have cured fuels that can sustain fires. ..Cook.. 08/10/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more