Severe Storms

MD 1720 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 575... FOR SOUTEHAST ILLINOIS...SOUTHERN INDIANA...AND INTO PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY
Mesoscale Discussion 1720 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1145 PM CDT Mon Aug 12 2019 Areas affected...soutehast Illinois...southern Indiana...and into portions of western and central Kentucky Concerning...Tornado Watch 575... Valid 130445Z - 130645Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 575 continues. SUMMARY...Severe risk continues to evolve primarily toward damaging winds across WW 575. DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows storms evolving into a fairly well-defined bow echo, moving southeastward at around 25 kt. Some acceleration of the band of convection is noted over the past half hour, near the Illinois/Indiana border. A tight instability gradient is aligned north-south across middle Tennessee and west-central Kentucky, which should limit the longer-term eastward advance of the convection. Meanwhile however, risk for damaging winds will continue across WW 575, and may spread southeast of the watch over the next couple of hours. We will continue to monitor evolution of the convection, and any possible need for a downstream WW. ..Goss.. 08/13/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ILN...LMK...IND...PAH...ILX...LSX... LAT...LON 38868893 39208868 39258805 39628710 39548628 38558503 37718495 37318561 37428698 38018799 38868893 Read more

WW 0575 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 575 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 ENE COU TO 45 SSE UIN TO 25 SW SPI TO 10 SW DEC TO 20 NE MTO TO 20 S DNV TO 30 ESE DNV TO 20 ESE LAF. ..COOK..08/13/19 ATTN...WFO...LSX...ILX...IND... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 575 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ILC005-013-021-023-025-029-033-035-045-049-051-061-079-083-101- 117-119-121-135-139-159-173-130440- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BOND CALHOUN CHRISTIAN CLARK CLAY COLES CRAWFORD CUMBERLAND EDGAR EFFINGHAM FAYETTE GREENE JASPER JERSEY LAWRENCE MACOUPIN MADISON MARION MONTGOMERY MOULTRIE RICHLAND SHELBY INC011-013-021-027-055-063-071-081-083-093-097-101-105-107-109- 119-121-133-153-165-167-130440- IN . INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BOONE BROWN CLAY DAVIESS GREENE HENDRICKS Read more

MD 1719 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 575... FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...SOUTHERN INDIANA...AND INTO PARTS OF WESTERN KENTUCKY
Mesoscale Discussion 1719 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1000 PM CDT Mon Aug 12 2019 Areas affected...central and southern Illinois...southern Indiana...and into parts of western Kentucky Concerning...Tornado Watch 575... Valid 130300Z - 130500Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 575 continues. SUMMARY...Strong/severe storms have become well-established across central Illinois and vicinity. Damaging winds will likely become the primary severe risk, though tornado risk continues across central Illinois. DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows a band of convection in a roughly west-to-east band across central Illinois, that continues to shows signs of gradual upscale growth. However, updrafts still remain sufficiently separated spatially to reveal pronounced supercell characteristics in radar imagery, including a few strongly rotating cells. One such cell -- which appears likely to have been producing a tornado over the past half hour -- has now moved into northern Shelby County Illinois. With time, expect upscale growth to continue, with storms likely evolving into an east-southeastward-moving storm complex, where damaging winds would likely become the primary severe risk. This could require southeastward watch issuance later this evening. In the mean time, risk for damaging winds and a tornado or two will continue in the short term. ..Goss.. 08/13/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ILN...LMK...IND...PAH...ILX...LSX... LAT...LON 38939110 39909117 39918909 39988755 39788621 38558503 37718495 37318561 37428698 38389011 38939110 Read more

WW 0575 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0575 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

MD 1718 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR NORTH-CENTRAL/NORTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA INTO SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS
Mesoscale Discussion 1718 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0806 PM CDT Mon Aug 12 2019 Areas affected...north-central/northeastern Oklahoma into southeastern Kansas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 130106Z - 130200Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Strong to isolated severe wind gusts are likely with a convective complex migrating east-northeastward into the discussion area. A WW issuance is not anticipated for this activity. DISCUSSION...A cluster of relatively disorganized updrafts over north-central Oklahoma near Enid/Medford has now increased in organization, with upscale growth now evident on radar along the leading edge of a mature cold pool now over Noble/Kay Counties and northwestward into Harper County, Kansas. These storms are moving into an extremely unstable downstream environment, with low 90s F surface temperatures and upper 70s F to near 80 F dewpoints contributing to 5000-6000 J/kg MUCAPE. The downstream environment also contains modest deep shear and weak low-level shear, though the mature nature of the cold pool should support continued intense updrafts along its leading edge along with downdrafts capable of strong to isolated severe wind gusts and occasional hail. This threat is too localized/isolated to necessitate a WW issuance, though it is expected to continue east-northeastward in the general direction of BVO/IDP over the next couple of hours. ..Cook.. 08/13/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...SGF...TSA...ICT...OUN... LAT...LON 37219739 37469683 37649562 37429477 36919465 36639523 36379646 36379715 36609756 37009763 37219739 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0801 PM CDT Mon Aug 12 2019 Valid 130100Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM IL TO SOUTHWEST OH... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected to develop this evening across Illinois and Indiana into southwest Ohio later tonight. Damaging winds are the primary threat. ...01Z Update... Organized deep convection has struggled to develop early this evening across the Mid MS Valley in the wake of early-day remnant MCS. 13/00z sounding from DVN supports this delayed development with poor lapse rates and seasonally weak buoyancy. However, ILX exhibits substantial MUCAPE with ample shear for sustained rotating updrafts. Over the last half hour or so scattered updrafts have gradually deepened across central IL such that lightning is now observed along a corridor from Adams County to Macon County. Latest thinking is convection will gradually grow upscale, shifting east toward central IN within broad westerly flow regime. Have lowered severe probs across much of IA and northern IL to reflect a more narrow corridor of expected severe. Damaging winds should be the greatest severe risk with this activity. Elsewhere, isolated supercell has developed ahead of upper trough south of MOT. This storm has evolved along progressive front and should propagate southeast along a narrow corridor of instability with an attendant threat for primarily hail. High-based convection across the southern Plains is expected to linger across the TX Panhandle into northern OK/southeast KS for the next several hours. Large temp/dew point spreads and ample PW appears supportive of at least an isolated damaging wind threat. ..Darrow.. 08/13/2019 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0801 PM CDT Mon Aug 12 2019 Valid 130100Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM IL TO SOUTHWEST OH... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected to develop this evening across Illinois and Indiana into southwest Ohio later tonight. Damaging winds are the primary threat. ...01Z Update... Organized deep convection has struggled to develop early this evening across the Mid MS Valley in the wake of early-day remnant MCS. 13/00z sounding from DVN supports this delayed development with poor lapse rates and seasonally weak buoyancy. However, ILX exhibits substantial MUCAPE with ample shear for sustained rotating updrafts. Over the last half hour or so scattered updrafts have gradually deepened across central IL such that lightning is now observed along a corridor from Adams County to Macon County. Latest thinking is convection will gradually grow upscale, shifting east toward central IN within broad westerly flow regime. Have lowered severe probs across much of IA and northern IL to reflect a more narrow corridor of expected severe. Damaging winds should be the greatest severe risk with this activity. Elsewhere, isolated supercell has developed ahead of upper trough south of MOT. This storm has evolved along progressive front and should propagate southeast along a narrow corridor of instability with an attendant threat for primarily hail. High-based convection across the southern Plains is expected to linger across the TX Panhandle into northern OK/southeast KS for the next several hours. Large temp/dew point spreads and ample PW appears supportive of at least an isolated damaging wind threat. ..Darrow.. 08/13/2019 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0801 PM CDT Mon Aug 12 2019 Valid 130100Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM IL TO SOUTHWEST OH... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected to develop this evening across Illinois and Indiana into southwest Ohio later tonight. Damaging winds are the primary threat. ...01Z Update... Organized deep convection has struggled to develop early this evening across the Mid MS Valley in the wake of early-day remnant MCS. 13/00z sounding from DVN supports this delayed development with poor lapse rates and seasonally weak buoyancy. However, ILX exhibits substantial MUCAPE with ample shear for sustained rotating updrafts. Over the last half hour or so scattered updrafts have gradually deepened across central IL such that lightning is now observed along a corridor from Adams County to Macon County. Latest thinking is convection will gradually grow upscale, shifting east toward central IN within broad westerly flow regime. Have lowered severe probs across much of IA and northern IL to reflect a more narrow corridor of expected severe. Damaging winds should be the greatest severe risk with this activity. Elsewhere, isolated supercell has developed ahead of upper trough south of MOT. This storm has evolved along progressive front and should propagate southeast along a narrow corridor of instability with an attendant threat for primarily hail. High-based convection across the southern Plains is expected to linger across the TX Panhandle into northern OK/southeast KS for the next several hours. Large temp/dew point spreads and ample PW appears supportive of at least an isolated damaging wind threat. ..Darrow.. 08/13/2019 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0801 PM CDT Mon Aug 12 2019 Valid 130100Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM IL TO SOUTHWEST OH... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected to develop this evening across Illinois and Indiana into southwest Ohio later tonight. Damaging winds are the primary threat. ...01Z Update... Organized deep convection has struggled to develop early this evening across the Mid MS Valley in the wake of early-day remnant MCS. 13/00z sounding from DVN supports this delayed development with poor lapse rates and seasonally weak buoyancy. However, ILX exhibits substantial MUCAPE with ample shear for sustained rotating updrafts. Over the last half hour or so scattered updrafts have gradually deepened across central IL such that lightning is now observed along a corridor from Adams County to Macon County. Latest thinking is convection will gradually grow upscale, shifting east toward central IN within broad westerly flow regime. Have lowered severe probs across much of IA and northern IL to reflect a more narrow corridor of expected severe. Damaging winds should be the greatest severe risk with this activity. Elsewhere, isolated supercell has developed ahead of upper trough south of MOT. This storm has evolved along progressive front and should propagate southeast along a narrow corridor of instability with an attendant threat for primarily hail. High-based convection across the southern Plains is expected to linger across the TX Panhandle into northern OK/southeast KS for the next several hours. Large temp/dew point spreads and ample PW appears supportive of at least an isolated damaging wind threat. ..Darrow.. 08/13/2019 Read more

No watches are valid as of Mon Aug 12 22:22:01 UTC 2019.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Mon Aug 12 22:22:01 UTC 2019.

MD 1717 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY FOR CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST IA...NORTHERN IL...FAR NORTHEAST MO
Mesoscale Discussion 1717 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0346 PM CDT Mon Aug 12 2019 Areas affected...Central/southeast IA...Northern IL...Far northeast MO Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely Valid 122046Z - 122215Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorms capable of primarily damaging winds and a few tornadoes are possible late this afternoon into the evening. Tornado watch issuance is likely prior to 23Z. DISCUSSION...An MCV is currently moving through the upper Mississippi Valley, with a weakening area of primarily stratiform rain noted across northeast IA into northern IL. In the wake of the MCV, clearing has been noted across central into southeast IA, with cumulus gradually increasing along an outflow/differential heating boundary from west-central IL into southeast IA. Lapse rates are generally weak across this region, but continued heating of a very moist low-level airmass will result in the development of moderate to locally strong buoyancy (MLCAPE of 1500-3000 J/kg) from southeast IA into northwest/central IL. Forcing for ascent will be somewhat nebulous in the wake of the leading MCV, but scattered thunderstorm development is eventually expected in the vicinity of the surface boundary and a weak surface low across central IA. Area VWPs and the 20Z ILX sounding depict sufficient deep-layer shear for organized convection, and initial development will include the potential for a few discrete supercells. Some increase in low-level flow/shear is expected with time into the evening, and a tornado threat will evolve with any supercell, particularly in the vicinity of the surface boundary which may move slowly northward over the next 2-3 hours. A strong tornado will be possible if any supercell can become sustained in the zone of enhanced low-level helicity near and just north of the boundary. Otherwise, locally severe wind gusts and marginally severe hail will be possible with any discrete convection. Most HREF members depict some sort of upscale growth this evening into portions of central IL, which would pose an increasing risk of more widespread damaging winds and potentially QLCS tornadoes. Tornado watch issuance by 23Z is likely in order to cover these threats, though earlier watch issuance is possible if deep convective initiation appears imminent. ..Dean/Grams.. 08/12/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...LSX...DVN...DMX... LAT...LON 42379296 42439155 42159002 41898892 41218858 40618863 40118904 39828997 40089166 40629222 40959326 41289324 42379296 Read more

MD 1716 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR EASTERN TX PANHANDLE...NORTHWEST OK...FAR SOUTH-CENTRAL KS
Mesoscale Discussion 1716 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0338 PM CDT Mon Aug 12 2019 Areas affected...eastern TX Panhandle...northwest OK...far south-central KS Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 122038Z - 122145Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Isolated severe gusts (60-70mph) are possible with the stronger storms through the early evening. The magnitude and coverage of the severe risk will likely preclude a severe thunderstorm watch issuance. DISCUSSION...Surface analysis shows temperatures have warmed into the lower 100s over the TX Panhandle northeastward into south-central KS. Strong boundary-layer mixing has resulted in surface temperature spreads around 40 deg F, and as a result, very steep low-level lapse rates have developed. Objective analysis indicates a belt of modest southwesterly mid- to high-level flow is located over the region to the northwest of the mid-level anticyclone centered over southeast TX. The strength of flow will result in some multicellular storm organization as storms move to the northeast. Strong to locally severe gusts/small hail may accompany the stronger cores. ..Smith/Grams.. 08/12/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...DDC...AMA... LAT...LON 35560130 36999907 37189710 36409785 35040047 35560130 Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0251 PM CDT Mon Aug 12 2019 Valid 122000Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... A few tornadoes with a potential for a strong tornado and significant damaging winds will be possible across southeast Iowa through central Illinois, mainly this evening. ...DISCUSSION... The only change to the outlook is to add thunder across parts of the Colorado Rockies where a few thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon. ..Broyles.. 08/12/2019 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Mon Aug 12 2019/ ...IA/IL/IN... An upgrade to Moderate Risk for tornado and/or wind may become necessary in later outlooks today. A leading MCV is tracking east into eastern IA with a lingering surface cyclone centered over west-central IA. This latter feature should move east into northern IL through this evening. Diffuse convective outflow from remnant leading MCS over southern IL has been shunted across southeast to northwest MO. Nevertheless, air mass recovery is underway north of the boundary into extreme southern IA and west-central IL. Further erosion of the prior cold pool amid cloud breaks should yield at least weak to moderate surface-based buoyancy by late afternoon in IA to northern IL. More robust destabilization is expected farther south where greater unimpeded insolation occurs while a plume of 77-81 F surface dew points is advected north from the Mid-South. Despite relatively warm mid-level temperatures, the very rich boundary-layer moisture and surface heating should yield a plume of large buoyancy with MLCAPE likely reaching 3000-4000 J/kg across much of MO into central/southern IL. Renewed thunderstorm development is probable towards late afternoon near the surface cyclone in southeast IA and during the early evening to the southeast in central IL within a corridor of strengthening low-level warm advection. The initial storms will likely be supercells capable of producing all hazards, given the enhanced low-level shear/hodograph curvature near the cyclone/warm front. Hodographs aloft should tend to favor relatively quick upscale growth, but even semi-discrete supercells will pose a risk for at least a few tornadoes, a couple of which be may strong. A forward-propagating MCS should eventually evolve along the MLCAPE gradient from central IL into central IN where severe wind gusts will remain a threat before weakening overnight. ...TX Panhandle to southern KS/northern OK... A remnant midlevel trough will drift slowly east-northeastward over the TX Panhandle, as a weak cold front moves slowly southeastward from KS/CO. Surface heating and deep mixing will result in inverted-v profiles along and south of the front, and will support the potential for isolated strong downburst winds. Convection will tend to develop east-northeastward tonight along the front, with strong downdrafts still possible in an environment of lingering large CAPE/DCAPE. ...ME... A midlevel trough over James Bay will pivot east-southeastward to Maine overnight. In advance of this trough, a weak pre-frontal trough at the surface and band of weak ascent will provide a focus for thunderstorm development this afternoon. Though moisture and lapse rates will be modest, increasing deep-layer westerly shear and surface heating on the south edge of the thicker clouds could support storms capable of producing isolated damaging gusts and marginally severe hail. ...Dakotas... Widespread clouds and rain are spreading slowly eastward across the eastern Dakotas in association with a couple of diffuse MCVs from overnight convection. A little clearing of clouds and surface heating will be possible from west to east this afternoon, in advance of a larger-scale trough moving east-southeastward from MT to ND. Isolated thunderstorm development and a low-end severe threat will be possible this afternoon if sufficient near-surface destabilization occurs, given enough vertical shear for organized storms. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0251 PM CDT Mon Aug 12 2019 Valid 122000Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... A few tornadoes with a potential for a strong tornado and significant damaging winds will be possible across southeast Iowa through central Illinois, mainly this evening. ...DISCUSSION... The only change to the outlook is to add thunder across parts of the Colorado Rockies where a few thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon. ..Broyles.. 08/12/2019 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Mon Aug 12 2019/ ...IA/IL/IN... An upgrade to Moderate Risk for tornado and/or wind may become necessary in later outlooks today. A leading MCV is tracking east into eastern IA with a lingering surface cyclone centered over west-central IA. This latter feature should move east into northern IL through this evening. Diffuse convective outflow from remnant leading MCS over southern IL has been shunted across southeast to northwest MO. Nevertheless, air mass recovery is underway north of the boundary into extreme southern IA and west-central IL. Further erosion of the prior cold pool amid cloud breaks should yield at least weak to moderate surface-based buoyancy by late afternoon in IA to northern IL. More robust destabilization is expected farther south where greater unimpeded insolation occurs while a plume of 77-81 F surface dew points is advected north from the Mid-South. Despite relatively warm mid-level temperatures, the very rich boundary-layer moisture and surface heating should yield a plume of large buoyancy with MLCAPE likely reaching 3000-4000 J/kg across much of MO into central/southern IL. Renewed thunderstorm development is probable towards late afternoon near the surface cyclone in southeast IA and during the early evening to the southeast in central IL within a corridor of strengthening low-level warm advection. The initial storms will likely be supercells capable of producing all hazards, given the enhanced low-level shear/hodograph curvature near the cyclone/warm front. Hodographs aloft should tend to favor relatively quick upscale growth, but even semi-discrete supercells will pose a risk for at least a few tornadoes, a couple of which be may strong. A forward-propagating MCS should eventually evolve along the MLCAPE gradient from central IL into central IN where severe wind gusts will remain a threat before weakening overnight. ...TX Panhandle to southern KS/northern OK... A remnant midlevel trough will drift slowly east-northeastward over the TX Panhandle, as a weak cold front moves slowly southeastward from KS/CO. Surface heating and deep mixing will result in inverted-v profiles along and south of the front, and will support the potential for isolated strong downburst winds. Convection will tend to develop east-northeastward tonight along the front, with strong downdrafts still possible in an environment of lingering large CAPE/DCAPE. ...ME... A midlevel trough over James Bay will pivot east-southeastward to Maine overnight. In advance of this trough, a weak pre-frontal trough at the surface and band of weak ascent will provide a focus for thunderstorm development this afternoon. Though moisture and lapse rates will be modest, increasing deep-layer westerly shear and surface heating on the south edge of the thicker clouds could support storms capable of producing isolated damaging gusts and marginally severe hail. ...Dakotas... Widespread clouds and rain are spreading slowly eastward across the eastern Dakotas in association with a couple of diffuse MCVs from overnight convection. A little clearing of clouds and surface heating will be possible from west to east this afternoon, in advance of a larger-scale trough moving east-southeastward from MT to ND. Isolated thunderstorm development and a low-end severe threat will be possible this afternoon if sufficient near-surface destabilization occurs, given enough vertical shear for organized storms. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0251 PM CDT Mon Aug 12 2019 Valid 122000Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... A few tornadoes with a potential for a strong tornado and significant damaging winds will be possible across southeast Iowa through central Illinois, mainly this evening. ...DISCUSSION... The only change to the outlook is to add thunder across parts of the Colorado Rockies where a few thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon. ..Broyles.. 08/12/2019 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Mon Aug 12 2019/ ...IA/IL/IN... An upgrade to Moderate Risk for tornado and/or wind may become necessary in later outlooks today. A leading MCV is tracking east into eastern IA with a lingering surface cyclone centered over west-central IA. This latter feature should move east into northern IL through this evening. Diffuse convective outflow from remnant leading MCS over southern IL has been shunted across southeast to northwest MO. Nevertheless, air mass recovery is underway north of the boundary into extreme southern IA and west-central IL. Further erosion of the prior cold pool amid cloud breaks should yield at least weak to moderate surface-based buoyancy by late afternoon in IA to northern IL. More robust destabilization is expected farther south where greater unimpeded insolation occurs while a plume of 77-81 F surface dew points is advected north from the Mid-South. Despite relatively warm mid-level temperatures, the very rich boundary-layer moisture and surface heating should yield a plume of large buoyancy with MLCAPE likely reaching 3000-4000 J/kg across much of MO into central/southern IL. Renewed thunderstorm development is probable towards late afternoon near the surface cyclone in southeast IA and during the early evening to the southeast in central IL within a corridor of strengthening low-level warm advection. The initial storms will likely be supercells capable of producing all hazards, given the enhanced low-level shear/hodograph curvature near the cyclone/warm front. Hodographs aloft should tend to favor relatively quick upscale growth, but even semi-discrete supercells will pose a risk for at least a few tornadoes, a couple of which be may strong. A forward-propagating MCS should eventually evolve along the MLCAPE gradient from central IL into central IN where severe wind gusts will remain a threat before weakening overnight. ...TX Panhandle to southern KS/northern OK... A remnant midlevel trough will drift slowly east-northeastward over the TX Panhandle, as a weak cold front moves slowly southeastward from KS/CO. Surface heating and deep mixing will result in inverted-v profiles along and south of the front, and will support the potential for isolated strong downburst winds. Convection will tend to develop east-northeastward tonight along the front, with strong downdrafts still possible in an environment of lingering large CAPE/DCAPE. ...ME... A midlevel trough over James Bay will pivot east-southeastward to Maine overnight. In advance of this trough, a weak pre-frontal trough at the surface and band of weak ascent will provide a focus for thunderstorm development this afternoon. Though moisture and lapse rates will be modest, increasing deep-layer westerly shear and surface heating on the south edge of the thicker clouds could support storms capable of producing isolated damaging gusts and marginally severe hail. ...Dakotas... Widespread clouds and rain are spreading slowly eastward across the eastern Dakotas in association with a couple of diffuse MCVs from overnight convection. A little clearing of clouds and surface heating will be possible from west to east this afternoon, in advance of a larger-scale trough moving east-southeastward from MT to ND. Isolated thunderstorm development and a low-end severe threat will be possible this afternoon if sufficient near-surface destabilization occurs, given enough vertical shear for organized storms. Read more

MD 1715 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR NORTHWEST INTO CENTRAL ND
Mesoscale Discussion 1715 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0232 PM CDT Mon Aug 12 2019 Areas affected...northwest into central ND Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 121932Z - 122100Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...A few stronger storms are possible this afternoon. A weak/brief tornado and large hail are the primary severe risks. DISCUSSION...Surface analysis indicates an occluded front oriented from southeast to northwest bisecting ND. Visible satellite imagery shows a cumulus field over western ND and stratus to the east of the boundary. Surface temperatures have warmed into the lower to middle 70s west and lower 60s east. The boundary is providing a focus both for storm development this afternoon and a source for ambient vorticity rich low-level air. As storms increase both in number and intensity later this afternoon, a few may acquire weak/transient low-level rotation as they move east-southeast and interact with the zone of low-level vorticity along the boundary. A tornado is possible along with hail. The spatial coverage and intensity of the expected severe risk will likely preclude a severe thunderstorm watch issuance. ..Smith/Grams.. 08/12/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BIS... LAT...LON 48490307 47840202 47290072 47350003 48000038 48820244 48490307 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0155 PM CDT Mon Aug 12 2019 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track, with no changes made. Please see below for more details. ..Squitieri.. 08/12/2019 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0712 AM CDT Mon Aug 12 2019/ ...Synopsis... Weak, quasi-zonal mid-level flow will continue across the northern tier of the CONUS D2/Tuesday. Flow at the surface and aloft will be minimal across dry areas of the West outside of localized, terrain-favored areas. With the lack of major synoptic features traversing the West, fire weather conditions will be minimal. No highlights will be introduced for this outlook. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0155 PM CDT Mon Aug 12 2019 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track, with no changes made. Please see below for more details. ..Squitieri.. 08/12/2019 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0712 AM CDT Mon Aug 12 2019/ ...Synopsis... Weak, quasi-zonal mid-level flow will continue across the northern tier of the CONUS D2/Tuesday. Flow at the surface and aloft will be minimal across dry areas of the West outside of localized, terrain-favored areas. With the lack of major synoptic features traversing the West, fire weather conditions will be minimal. No highlights will be introduced for this outlook. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0155 PM CDT Mon Aug 12 2019 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track, with no changes made. Please see below for more details. ..Squitieri.. 08/12/2019 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0712 AM CDT Mon Aug 12 2019/ ...Synopsis... Weak, quasi-zonal mid-level flow will continue across the northern tier of the CONUS D2/Tuesday. Flow at the surface and aloft will be minimal across dry areas of the West outside of localized, terrain-favored areas. With the lack of major synoptic features traversing the West, fire weather conditions will be minimal. No highlights will be introduced for this outlook. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more