Severe Storms

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1246 AM CDT Thu Aug 15 2019 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms are expected across parts of the central Great Plains today. Large to very large hail and severe gusts are forecast with the stronger storms. ...Central and northern Great Plains... A mid-level shortwave trough is forecast to move from eastern MT this morning to the mid-upper MS Valley by daybreak Friday. A weak area of low pressure will develop over western KS while a cold front moves southeastward across the western Dakotas during the day. An elevated cluster of thunderstorms is possible over the central Great Plains associated with a warm advection regime before this activity weakens by the late morning. Considerable uncertainty is apparent and partially attributed to the evolution of storms during the morning. An outflow boundary associated with this early day convection may serve as a focus for additional storms by late afternoon from NE into northern KS. Elongated hodographs would favor supercells with large to very large hail. Isolated storms are forecast farther southwest into southern KS into the TX Panhandle with a wind/hail risk with the sustained/strong storms. Farther north over the Dakotas and Wyoming into western NE, diurnal storms are forecast to develop along the front over the Dakotas and in a post-frontal area over WY. Hail/wind are possible with this activity. ...Upper Ohio Valley... At the surface, a front will advance eastward across upper Ohio Valley with moderate destabilization expected by afternoon. Although lapse rates are not expected to be that steep, forecast soundings do show 0-6 km shear values in the 30 to 40 kt range. A few marginally severe storms may develop in the late afternoon with potential for strong wind gusts and hail. ...Coastal Carolinas... Weak mid-level troughing will slowly move east across the southern Appalachians. A cold front and a sea breeze front will serve as foci for thunderstorm development during the midday through the early evening. A reservoir of rich low-level moisture (low-middle 70s dewpoints) will remain over the coastal plain and combine with strong heating to yield moderate destabilization. Strong gusts (45-55mph, locally higher) occurring in pockets associated with wet microbursts will be capable of isolated wind damage. Storms will weaken by the early evening and dissipate soon after sunset. ..Smith/Cook.. 08/15/2019 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1246 AM CDT Thu Aug 15 2019 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms are expected across parts of the central Great Plains today. Large to very large hail and severe gusts are forecast with the stronger storms. ...Central and northern Great Plains... A mid-level shortwave trough is forecast to move from eastern MT this morning to the mid-upper MS Valley by daybreak Friday. A weak area of low pressure will develop over western KS while a cold front moves southeastward across the western Dakotas during the day. An elevated cluster of thunderstorms is possible over the central Great Plains associated with a warm advection regime before this activity weakens by the late morning. Considerable uncertainty is apparent and partially attributed to the evolution of storms during the morning. An outflow boundary associated with this early day convection may serve as a focus for additional storms by late afternoon from NE into northern KS. Elongated hodographs would favor supercells with large to very large hail. Isolated storms are forecast farther southwest into southern KS into the TX Panhandle with a wind/hail risk with the sustained/strong storms. Farther north over the Dakotas and Wyoming into western NE, diurnal storms are forecast to develop along the front over the Dakotas and in a post-frontal area over WY. Hail/wind are possible with this activity. ...Upper Ohio Valley... At the surface, a front will advance eastward across upper Ohio Valley with moderate destabilization expected by afternoon. Although lapse rates are not expected to be that steep, forecast soundings do show 0-6 km shear values in the 30 to 40 kt range. A few marginally severe storms may develop in the late afternoon with potential for strong wind gusts and hail. ...Coastal Carolinas... Weak mid-level troughing will slowly move east across the southern Appalachians. A cold front and a sea breeze front will serve as foci for thunderstorm development during the midday through the early evening. A reservoir of rich low-level moisture (low-middle 70s dewpoints) will remain over the coastal plain and combine with strong heating to yield moderate destabilization. Strong gusts (45-55mph, locally higher) occurring in pockets associated with wet microbursts will be capable of isolated wind damage. Storms will weaken by the early evening and dissipate soon after sunset. ..Smith/Cook.. 08/15/2019 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1249 AM CDT Thu Aug 15 2019 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions will once again develop across portions of the Intermountain West on D2/Fri. A belt of enhanced mid-level flow will sag southward across portions of Idaho, Wyoming, and northern Colorado as a broad mid-level trough amplifies across the Canadian Rockies. This broadly cyclonic flow pattern will extend eastward across the Plains and through the Great Lakes as well, while weak ridging persists across the southern tier of the CONUS. ...Southwestern Wyoming, northwestern Colorado, and northeastern Utah... Heating/insolation beneath the increasingly strong mid-level flow across the region will result in areas of 15-25 mph surface flow during the afternoon and evening hours. Meanwhile, much of the region has been precipitation free over the last 1-2 weeks except for in higher elevations. RH values will also fall to near critical thresholds in a few areas and fall to as low as 7-10% in northeastern Utah. Widespread elevated fire weather conditions are most likely within the delineated area, though locally elevated fire weather conditions will also extend southward across eastern Utah/western Colorado and also within the Snake River Plain in Idaho where dry fuels exist and local terrain enhancements increase wind speeds. Furthermore, locally critical conditions are likely especially across northeastern Utah and northwestern Colorado, and if models trend any stronger with wind speeds, critical upgrades will need to be introduced. ..Cook.. 08/15/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1249 AM CDT Thu Aug 15 2019 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions will once again develop across portions of the Intermountain West on D2/Fri. A belt of enhanced mid-level flow will sag southward across portions of Idaho, Wyoming, and northern Colorado as a broad mid-level trough amplifies across the Canadian Rockies. This broadly cyclonic flow pattern will extend eastward across the Plains and through the Great Lakes as well, while weak ridging persists across the southern tier of the CONUS. ...Southwestern Wyoming, northwestern Colorado, and northeastern Utah... Heating/insolation beneath the increasingly strong mid-level flow across the region will result in areas of 15-25 mph surface flow during the afternoon and evening hours. Meanwhile, much of the region has been precipitation free over the last 1-2 weeks except for in higher elevations. RH values will also fall to near critical thresholds in a few areas and fall to as low as 7-10% in northeastern Utah. Widespread elevated fire weather conditions are most likely within the delineated area, though locally elevated fire weather conditions will also extend southward across eastern Utah/western Colorado and also within the Snake River Plain in Idaho where dry fuels exist and local terrain enhancements increase wind speeds. Furthermore, locally critical conditions are likely especially across northeastern Utah and northwestern Colorado, and if models trend any stronger with wind speeds, critical upgrades will need to be introduced. ..Cook.. 08/15/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1249 AM CDT Thu Aug 15 2019 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions will once again develop across portions of the Intermountain West on D2/Fri. A belt of enhanced mid-level flow will sag southward across portions of Idaho, Wyoming, and northern Colorado as a broad mid-level trough amplifies across the Canadian Rockies. This broadly cyclonic flow pattern will extend eastward across the Plains and through the Great Lakes as well, while weak ridging persists across the southern tier of the CONUS. ...Southwestern Wyoming, northwestern Colorado, and northeastern Utah... Heating/insolation beneath the increasingly strong mid-level flow across the region will result in areas of 15-25 mph surface flow during the afternoon and evening hours. Meanwhile, much of the region has been precipitation free over the last 1-2 weeks except for in higher elevations. RH values will also fall to near critical thresholds in a few areas and fall to as low as 7-10% in northeastern Utah. Widespread elevated fire weather conditions are most likely within the delineated area, though locally elevated fire weather conditions will also extend southward across eastern Utah/western Colorado and also within the Snake River Plain in Idaho where dry fuels exist and local terrain enhancements increase wind speeds. Furthermore, locally critical conditions are likely especially across northeastern Utah and northwestern Colorado, and if models trend any stronger with wind speeds, critical upgrades will need to be introduced. ..Cook.. 08/15/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1249 AM CDT Thu Aug 15 2019 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions will once again develop across portions of the Intermountain West on D2/Fri. A belt of enhanced mid-level flow will sag southward across portions of Idaho, Wyoming, and northern Colorado as a broad mid-level trough amplifies across the Canadian Rockies. This broadly cyclonic flow pattern will extend eastward across the Plains and through the Great Lakes as well, while weak ridging persists across the southern tier of the CONUS. ...Southwestern Wyoming, northwestern Colorado, and northeastern Utah... Heating/insolation beneath the increasingly strong mid-level flow across the region will result in areas of 15-25 mph surface flow during the afternoon and evening hours. Meanwhile, much of the region has been precipitation free over the last 1-2 weeks except for in higher elevations. RH values will also fall to near critical thresholds in a few areas and fall to as low as 7-10% in northeastern Utah. Widespread elevated fire weather conditions are most likely within the delineated area, though locally elevated fire weather conditions will also extend southward across eastern Utah/western Colorado and also within the Snake River Plain in Idaho where dry fuels exist and local terrain enhancements increase wind speeds. Furthermore, locally critical conditions are likely especially across northeastern Utah and northwestern Colorado, and if models trend any stronger with wind speeds, critical upgrades will need to be introduced. ..Cook.. 08/15/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1246 AM CDT Thu Aug 15 2019 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...Synopsis... A couple of shortwave troughs - one over the northern Plains and another Idaho - will gradually amplify southward/southeastward during the period. These shortwaves will result in a belt of enhanced mid-level flow extending from Oregon east-southeastward to Nebraska. This flow will strengthen atop a warming, yet dry low-level airmass across portions of Idaho and Wyoming, resulting in elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions. ...Eastern Idaho into southern Wyoming... Beneath strengthening mid-level flow, insolation and vertical mixing processes during peak heating hours will result in areas of 15-25 mph westerly surface flow - strongest across the Snake River Plain and areas of southern Wyoming. Meanwhile, RH values will fall to around 15% or so even though models/point forecast soundings indicate the potential for mid/high level clouds to slow boundary layer mixing some. Given areas of dry fuels across the region, atmospheric conditions are most consistent with elevated fire weather thresholds, though a few areas of critical fire weather may occur on a localized basis. ..Cook.. 08/15/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1246 AM CDT Thu Aug 15 2019 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...Synopsis... A couple of shortwave troughs - one over the northern Plains and another Idaho - will gradually amplify southward/southeastward during the period. These shortwaves will result in a belt of enhanced mid-level flow extending from Oregon east-southeastward to Nebraska. This flow will strengthen atop a warming, yet dry low-level airmass across portions of Idaho and Wyoming, resulting in elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions. ...Eastern Idaho into southern Wyoming... Beneath strengthening mid-level flow, insolation and vertical mixing processes during peak heating hours will result in areas of 15-25 mph westerly surface flow - strongest across the Snake River Plain and areas of southern Wyoming. Meanwhile, RH values will fall to around 15% or so even though models/point forecast soundings indicate the potential for mid/high level clouds to slow boundary layer mixing some. Given areas of dry fuels across the region, atmospheric conditions are most consistent with elevated fire weather thresholds, though a few areas of critical fire weather may occur on a localized basis. ..Cook.. 08/15/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1246 AM CDT Thu Aug 15 2019 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...Synopsis... A couple of shortwave troughs - one over the northern Plains and another Idaho - will gradually amplify southward/southeastward during the period. These shortwaves will result in a belt of enhanced mid-level flow extending from Oregon east-southeastward to Nebraska. This flow will strengthen atop a warming, yet dry low-level airmass across portions of Idaho and Wyoming, resulting in elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions. ...Eastern Idaho into southern Wyoming... Beneath strengthening mid-level flow, insolation and vertical mixing processes during peak heating hours will result in areas of 15-25 mph westerly surface flow - strongest across the Snake River Plain and areas of southern Wyoming. Meanwhile, RH values will fall to around 15% or so even though models/point forecast soundings indicate the potential for mid/high level clouds to slow boundary layer mixing some. Given areas of dry fuels across the region, atmospheric conditions are most consistent with elevated fire weather thresholds, though a few areas of critical fire weather may occur on a localized basis. ..Cook.. 08/15/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1246 AM CDT Thu Aug 15 2019 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...Synopsis... A couple of shortwave troughs - one over the northern Plains and another Idaho - will gradually amplify southward/southeastward during the period. These shortwaves will result in a belt of enhanced mid-level flow extending from Oregon east-southeastward to Nebraska. This flow will strengthen atop a warming, yet dry low-level airmass across portions of Idaho and Wyoming, resulting in elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions. ...Eastern Idaho into southern Wyoming... Beneath strengthening mid-level flow, insolation and vertical mixing processes during peak heating hours will result in areas of 15-25 mph westerly surface flow - strongest across the Snake River Plain and areas of southern Wyoming. Meanwhile, RH values will fall to around 15% or so even though models/point forecast soundings indicate the potential for mid/high level clouds to slow boundary layer mixing some. Given areas of dry fuels across the region, atmospheric conditions are most consistent with elevated fire weather thresholds, though a few areas of critical fire weather may occur on a localized basis. ..Cook.. 08/15/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

MD 1741 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR EASTERN WYOMING...SOUTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST NEBRASKA
Mesoscale Discussion 1741 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1156 PM CDT Wed Aug 14 2019 Areas affected...eastern Wyoming...southwest South Dakota and northwest Nebraska Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 150456Z - 150630Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Storms may continue to pose a risk for large hail and locally strong to damaging gusts into the early morning hours. Trends are being monitored for a possible WW. DISCUSSION...Severe storms continue over northeast WY and western SD. Several CAM solutions maintain storms into the morning hours from southwest SD into western NE. The strongest forcing for ascent appears to remain in MT in association with a progressive shortwave trough. The surface layer has stabilized, but convective inhibition for parcels lifted from above the surface remains relatively weak. While larger-scale forcing appears rather nebulous and subtle, trend has been for storms to increase in coverage, and activity may continue southeast along the instability gradient. MUCAPE from 1500-2000 J/kg with 7.5-8 C/km mid-level lapse rates and effective shear from 40-45 kt is sufficient for updraft rotation and a threat for large hail. ..Dial/Goss.. 08/15/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...CYS... LAT...LON 43490476 44080466 44200274 43260196 42100185 41690337 42760423 43490476 Read more

MD 1739 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SOUTHEAST MONTANA...NORTHEAST WYOMING AND WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA
Mesoscale Discussion 1739 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0914 PM CDT Wed Aug 14 2019 Areas affected...southeast Montana...northeast Wyoming and western South Dakota Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 150214Z - 150345Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Isolated storms may continue developing southeast through northeast Wyoming and western South Dakota this evening, posing a risk for isolated large hail and downburst winds. At this time it appears storm coverage will probably remain too sparse for a WW, but trends will continue to be monitored. DISCUSSION...As of mid evening a few storms persist over southeast MT, with the strongest storm having supercell characteristics approaching the northeast WY border. The downstream atmosphere is moderately unstable with 1500-2000 J/kg MUCAPE. A modest increase in convective inhibition is occurring with respect to surface-based parcels with onset of nocturnal cooling. However, a few storms may persist with slightly elevated updrafts having inflow rooted just above the surface. Thus isolated storms could persist into a portion of western SD and extreme northeast WY and pose a threat for large hail and downburst winds this evening. Stronger forcing accompanying a shortwave trough moving through eastern MT should remain north of this region. This along with the absence of a substantial low-level jet suggest storm coverage will probably remain very isolated. ..Dial/Goss.. 08/15/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...UNR...CYS...BYZ... LAT...LON 43360396 44120500 44760594 45560411 44640295 43530271 43360396 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0800 PM CDT Wed Aug 14 2019 Valid 150100Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR EAST-CENTRAL COLORADO AND FAR WESTERN KANSAS...THE BLACK HILLS VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms with large hail and severe gusts are possible across parts of the central and northern High Plains tonight. ...Eastern CO into eastern NM... Modest west-northwesterly mid-level flow will remain over the central-southern High Plains to the northeast of a mid-level anticyclone located over the Desert Southwest. Upslope low-level flow ushering surface dewpoints in the 50s to lower 60s, coupled with daytime heating has yielded moderate instability. The strongly veering wind profile is supportive of organized storms but storm coverage will likely remain isolated as convective inhibition via boundary layer cooling occurs this evening. However, in the meantime before storms dissipate later this evening, a risk for large hail and severe gusts may accompany the stronger storms. Farther south, diurnally developed storms will likely continue to weaken over the next few hours across eastern NM due to the loss of surface heating and with additional convective overturning expected. A strong wind gust or hail cannot be ruled out over the next hour before activity weakens. ...Eastern MT into western NE... A weak mid-level disturbance evident in water vapor imagery this evening over MT is forecast to move into the Dakotas late tonight. A corridor of moderate instability is located northward through the central High Plains into eastern MT. Isolated severe storms are possible this evening mainly over eastern MT before warm advection increases near the Black Hills late this evening into the overnight. Given the strength of the wind profile sampled by the Rapid City, SD evening raob (elongated hodograph), will maintain a categorical slight risk for large hail where storm coverage is expected to be highest from southeast MT into northwest NE. ..Smith.. 08/15/2019 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0800 PM CDT Wed Aug 14 2019 Valid 150100Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR EAST-CENTRAL COLORADO AND FAR WESTERN KANSAS...THE BLACK HILLS VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms with large hail and severe gusts are possible across parts of the central and northern High Plains tonight. ...Eastern CO into eastern NM... Modest west-northwesterly mid-level flow will remain over the central-southern High Plains to the northeast of a mid-level anticyclone located over the Desert Southwest. Upslope low-level flow ushering surface dewpoints in the 50s to lower 60s, coupled with daytime heating has yielded moderate instability. The strongly veering wind profile is supportive of organized storms but storm coverage will likely remain isolated as convective inhibition via boundary layer cooling occurs this evening. However, in the meantime before storms dissipate later this evening, a risk for large hail and severe gusts may accompany the stronger storms. Farther south, diurnally developed storms will likely continue to weaken over the next few hours across eastern NM due to the loss of surface heating and with additional convective overturning expected. A strong wind gust or hail cannot be ruled out over the next hour before activity weakens. ...Eastern MT into western NE... A weak mid-level disturbance evident in water vapor imagery this evening over MT is forecast to move into the Dakotas late tonight. A corridor of moderate instability is located northward through the central High Plains into eastern MT. Isolated severe storms are possible this evening mainly over eastern MT before warm advection increases near the Black Hills late this evening into the overnight. Given the strength of the wind profile sampled by the Rapid City, SD evening raob (elongated hodograph), will maintain a categorical slight risk for large hail where storm coverage is expected to be highest from southeast MT into northwest NE. ..Smith.. 08/15/2019 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0800 PM CDT Wed Aug 14 2019 Valid 150100Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR EAST-CENTRAL COLORADO AND FAR WESTERN KANSAS...THE BLACK HILLS VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms with large hail and severe gusts are possible across parts of the central and northern High Plains tonight. ...Eastern CO into eastern NM... Modest west-northwesterly mid-level flow will remain over the central-southern High Plains to the northeast of a mid-level anticyclone located over the Desert Southwest. Upslope low-level flow ushering surface dewpoints in the 50s to lower 60s, coupled with daytime heating has yielded moderate instability. The strongly veering wind profile is supportive of organized storms but storm coverage will likely remain isolated as convective inhibition via boundary layer cooling occurs this evening. However, in the meantime before storms dissipate later this evening, a risk for large hail and severe gusts may accompany the stronger storms. Farther south, diurnally developed storms will likely continue to weaken over the next few hours across eastern NM due to the loss of surface heating and with additional convective overturning expected. A strong wind gust or hail cannot be ruled out over the next hour before activity weakens. ...Eastern MT into western NE... A weak mid-level disturbance evident in water vapor imagery this evening over MT is forecast to move into the Dakotas late tonight. A corridor of moderate instability is located northward through the central High Plains into eastern MT. Isolated severe storms are possible this evening mainly over eastern MT before warm advection increases near the Black Hills late this evening into the overnight. Given the strength of the wind profile sampled by the Rapid City, SD evening raob (elongated hodograph), will maintain a categorical slight risk for large hail where storm coverage is expected to be highest from southeast MT into northwest NE. ..Smith.. 08/15/2019 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0800 PM CDT Wed Aug 14 2019 Valid 150100Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR EAST-CENTRAL COLORADO AND FAR WESTERN KANSAS...THE BLACK HILLS VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms with large hail and severe gusts are possible across parts of the central and northern High Plains tonight. ...Eastern CO into eastern NM... Modest west-northwesterly mid-level flow will remain over the central-southern High Plains to the northeast of a mid-level anticyclone located over the Desert Southwest. Upslope low-level flow ushering surface dewpoints in the 50s to lower 60s, coupled with daytime heating has yielded moderate instability. The strongly veering wind profile is supportive of organized storms but storm coverage will likely remain isolated as convective inhibition via boundary layer cooling occurs this evening. However, in the meantime before storms dissipate later this evening, a risk for large hail and severe gusts may accompany the stronger storms. Farther south, diurnally developed storms will likely continue to weaken over the next few hours across eastern NM due to the loss of surface heating and with additional convective overturning expected. A strong wind gust or hail cannot be ruled out over the next hour before activity weakens. ...Eastern MT into western NE... A weak mid-level disturbance evident in water vapor imagery this evening over MT is forecast to move into the Dakotas late tonight. A corridor of moderate instability is located northward through the central High Plains into eastern MT. Isolated severe storms are possible this evening mainly over eastern MT before warm advection increases near the Black Hills late this evening into the overnight. Given the strength of the wind profile sampled by the Rapid City, SD evening raob (elongated hodograph), will maintain a categorical slight risk for large hail where storm coverage is expected to be highest from southeast MT into northwest NE. ..Smith.. 08/15/2019 Read more

WW 0582 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 582 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 W SNY TO 25 NNE AKO TO 35 SW IML. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1738 ..DIAL..08/15/19 ATTN...WFO...BOU...GLD...CYS... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 582 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS COC001-005-017-039-063-073-075-087-121-123-125-150140- CO . COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS ARAPAHOE CHEYENNE ELBERT KIT CARSON LINCOLN LOGAN MORGAN WASHINGTON WELD YUMA KSC023-181-199-150140- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHEYENNE SHERMAN WALLACE THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0582 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 582 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 W SNY TO 25 NNE AKO TO 35 SW IML. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1738 ..DIAL..08/15/19 ATTN...WFO...BOU...GLD...CYS... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 582 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS COC001-005-017-039-063-073-075-087-121-123-125-150140- CO . COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS ARAPAHOE CHEYENNE ELBERT KIT CARSON LINCOLN LOGAN MORGAN WASHINGTON WELD YUMA KSC023-181-199-150140- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHEYENNE SHERMAN WALLACE THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 582 SEVERE TSTM CO KS NE 142100Z - 150300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 582 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 300 PM MDT Wed Aug 14 2019 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Eastern Colorado Far northwest Kansas Southwest Nebraska Panhandle * Effective this Wednesday afternoon and evening from 300 PM until 900 PM MDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter possible Isolated damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...A supercell or two may become sustained along a weak boundary near the Wyoming-Colorado-Nebraska border, moving southeast across eastern Colorado into northwest Kansas. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 70 statute miles east and west of a line from 60 miles north northwest of Akron CO to 45 miles southwest of Burlington CO. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 32030. ...Grams Read more

MD 1738 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 582... FOR NORTHEAST COLORADO THROUGH NORTHWEST KANSAS
Mesoscale Discussion 1738 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0658 PM CDT Wed Aug 14 2019 Areas affected...northeast Colorado through northwest Kansas Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 582... Valid 142358Z - 150130Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 582 continues. SUMMARY...Isolated strong to severe storms with large hail and downburst winds will persist through about 02Z, followed by a diminishing trend. DISCUSSION...New storms have recently developed near the CO/northwest KS border along what appears to be the merger between a northwest-southeast oriented boundary and a southwest advancing outflow boundary. It remains possible that other isolated storms may develop farther northwest over the higher terrain and spread southeast. Vertical wind profiles with 40-50 kt effective bulk shear support potential for some supercell structures. Activity is developing within an environment characterized by weak forcing aloft suggesting storms are mostly diurnally driven and should remain isolated. Convective inhibition will increase substantially with onset of nocturnal cooling, and storms are expected to begin a gradual weakening trend by 02Z. ..Dial.. 08/14/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...GLD...PUB...BOU...CYS... LAT...LON 41000272 39790175 38840168 38580242 38690370 39250431 40830459 41000272 Read more