Severe Storms

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0138 AM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR CENTRAL WASHINGTON... ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will bring a belt of enhanced westerly flow aloft across portions of the Pacific Northwest today. A period of Elevated to Critical fire weather conditions can be expected across the Columbia River Basin in Oregon and Washington and in the Snake River Plain in Idaho. The trough will also promote dry thunderstorm development across the Great Basin. ...Cascades and Columbia River Basin... Relative humidity reductions to 15-20 percent will combine with west winds around 15 mph promoting elevated fire weather concerns for the Columbia River Basin through Monday afternoon. A considerable wind shift is expected with the dry cold front passage beginning early afternoon across the Okanagan Valley before reaching the Columbia River by evening. Although relative humidity will rise behind the front, a few hours of sustained north winds of 20-30 mph will create Critical fire weather concerns and could significantly impact existing active or new fires Monday. ...Snake River Plain... Relative humidity reductions to 15-20 percent will combine with westerly winds around 10-15 mph (locally higher) through Monday afternoon. Locally stronger winds may bring near Critical to Critical conditions, however the localized nature precludes inclusion of a Critical area at this time. ...Dry Thunderstorms... Forcing for ascent with the upper-level trough will allow for high based convection to develop across portions of the northern Great Basin. Primarily mid-level moisture will overspread a very dry and warm boundary layer, with little to no precipitation and storm motions around 10-20 mph. This in combination with critical fuels supports maintaining and area of isolated dry thunderstorm chances across northern Nevada into southeastern Oregon, southern Idaho, and far northeastern Nevada. ..Thornton.. 07/14/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0138 AM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR CENTRAL WASHINGTON... ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will bring a belt of enhanced westerly flow aloft across portions of the Pacific Northwest today. A period of Elevated to Critical fire weather conditions can be expected across the Columbia River Basin in Oregon and Washington and in the Snake River Plain in Idaho. The trough will also promote dry thunderstorm development across the Great Basin. ...Cascades and Columbia River Basin... Relative humidity reductions to 15-20 percent will combine with west winds around 15 mph promoting elevated fire weather concerns for the Columbia River Basin through Monday afternoon. A considerable wind shift is expected with the dry cold front passage beginning early afternoon across the Okanagan Valley before reaching the Columbia River by evening. Although relative humidity will rise behind the front, a few hours of sustained north winds of 20-30 mph will create Critical fire weather concerns and could significantly impact existing active or new fires Monday. ...Snake River Plain... Relative humidity reductions to 15-20 percent will combine with westerly winds around 10-15 mph (locally higher) through Monday afternoon. Locally stronger winds may bring near Critical to Critical conditions, however the localized nature precludes inclusion of a Critical area at this time. ...Dry Thunderstorms... Forcing for ascent with the upper-level trough will allow for high based convection to develop across portions of the northern Great Basin. Primarily mid-level moisture will overspread a very dry and warm boundary layer, with little to no precipitation and storm motions around 10-20 mph. This in combination with critical fuels supports maintaining and area of isolated dry thunderstorm chances across northern Nevada into southeastern Oregon, southern Idaho, and far northeastern Nevada. ..Thornton.. 07/14/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1235 AM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NEBRASKA AND SOUTH DAKOTA... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible Tuesday afternoon and evening across portions of the central Plains to Upper Midwest. A greater concentration of severe wind gusts and hail will be focused mainly across parts of Nebraska and South Dakota. ...Northern/Central Plains to Upper Midwest... A positive-tilt upper shortwave trough is forecast to eject eastward across the northern Rockies on Tuesday. Another shortwave impulse ahead of this main system will move across SD/NE and into the Upper Midwest. Both of these features will result in increasing mid/upper westerly flow. In response to increasing flow and height falls, a surface low will develop over western SD and move into southern MN by Wednesday morning. Meanwhile, a cold front will sag southward across MT, the Dakotas and northern MN, while a surface trough extends southward into the central High Plains. Ahead of the triple point within the warm sector south of the cold front, mid/upper 60s F dewpoints will be in place beneath steep midlevel lapse rates. This will foster 2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE. Vertical shear around 25-35 kt will support a mix of cells and clusters capable of producing damaging gusts and hail. Most guidance suggest some upscale growth will occur via clustering/consolidating outflows by late afternoon across parts of SD/NE. A 30-40 kt southwesterly low-level jet developing by early evening could aid in maintaining a bowing MCS with eastward extent toward the MO River. If this occurs, an increasing risk for severe wind gusts will be possible. Given a consistent signal across forecast guidance and a favorable forecast environment, a Slight risk (level 2 of 5) has been included, mainly for parts of NE/SD. Additional strong to isolated severe storms will be possible along the sagging cold front into northern MN, as well as across eastern WY and western SD/NE in the post-frontal upslope flow regime. Isolated hail and strong gusts will be possible with these storms. ...Mid-MS Valley... Forecast guidance has trended weaker with a prior depiction of a weak low/MCV across the Ozarks/Mid-MS Valley vicinity. A very moist airmass (70s F dewpoints) will be in place, supporting modest instability (1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE). However, vertical shear is forecast to be very weak (around 15 kt), limiting potential for organized/longer-lived updrafts. Where stronger heating occurs, steepened low-level lapse rates could support sporadic strong downburst winds. Overall severe potential appear limited and the Marginal risk (level 1 of 5) has been removed with this update. ..Leitman.. 07/14/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1235 AM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NEBRASKA AND SOUTH DAKOTA... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible Tuesday afternoon and evening across portions of the central Plains to Upper Midwest. A greater concentration of severe wind gusts and hail will be focused mainly across parts of Nebraska and South Dakota. ...Northern/Central Plains to Upper Midwest... A positive-tilt upper shortwave trough is forecast to eject eastward across the northern Rockies on Tuesday. Another shortwave impulse ahead of this main system will move across SD/NE and into the Upper Midwest. Both of these features will result in increasing mid/upper westerly flow. In response to increasing flow and height falls, a surface low will develop over western SD and move into southern MN by Wednesday morning. Meanwhile, a cold front will sag southward across MT, the Dakotas and northern MN, while a surface trough extends southward into the central High Plains. Ahead of the triple point within the warm sector south of the cold front, mid/upper 60s F dewpoints will be in place beneath steep midlevel lapse rates. This will foster 2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE. Vertical shear around 25-35 kt will support a mix of cells and clusters capable of producing damaging gusts and hail. Most guidance suggest some upscale growth will occur via clustering/consolidating outflows by late afternoon across parts of SD/NE. A 30-40 kt southwesterly low-level jet developing by early evening could aid in maintaining a bowing MCS with eastward extent toward the MO River. If this occurs, an increasing risk for severe wind gusts will be possible. Given a consistent signal across forecast guidance and a favorable forecast environment, a Slight risk (level 2 of 5) has been included, mainly for parts of NE/SD. Additional strong to isolated severe storms will be possible along the sagging cold front into northern MN, as well as across eastern WY and western SD/NE in the post-frontal upslope flow regime. Isolated hail and strong gusts will be possible with these storms. ...Mid-MS Valley... Forecast guidance has trended weaker with a prior depiction of a weak low/MCV across the Ozarks/Mid-MS Valley vicinity. A very moist airmass (70s F dewpoints) will be in place, supporting modest instability (1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE). However, vertical shear is forecast to be very weak (around 15 kt), limiting potential for organized/longer-lived updrafts. Where stronger heating occurs, steepened low-level lapse rates could support sporadic strong downburst winds. Overall severe potential appear limited and the Marginal risk (level 1 of 5) has been removed with this update. ..Leitman.. 07/14/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1235 AM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NEBRASKA AND SOUTH DAKOTA... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible Tuesday afternoon and evening across portions of the central Plains to Upper Midwest. A greater concentration of severe wind gusts and hail will be focused mainly across parts of Nebraska and South Dakota. ...Northern/Central Plains to Upper Midwest... A positive-tilt upper shortwave trough is forecast to eject eastward across the northern Rockies on Tuesday. Another shortwave impulse ahead of this main system will move across SD/NE and into the Upper Midwest. Both of these features will result in increasing mid/upper westerly flow. In response to increasing flow and height falls, a surface low will develop over western SD and move into southern MN by Wednesday morning. Meanwhile, a cold front will sag southward across MT, the Dakotas and northern MN, while a surface trough extends southward into the central High Plains. Ahead of the triple point within the warm sector south of the cold front, mid/upper 60s F dewpoints will be in place beneath steep midlevel lapse rates. This will foster 2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE. Vertical shear around 25-35 kt will support a mix of cells and clusters capable of producing damaging gusts and hail. Most guidance suggest some upscale growth will occur via clustering/consolidating outflows by late afternoon across parts of SD/NE. A 30-40 kt southwesterly low-level jet developing by early evening could aid in maintaining a bowing MCS with eastward extent toward the MO River. If this occurs, an increasing risk for severe wind gusts will be possible. Given a consistent signal across forecast guidance and a favorable forecast environment, a Slight risk (level 2 of 5) has been included, mainly for parts of NE/SD. Additional strong to isolated severe storms will be possible along the sagging cold front into northern MN, as well as across eastern WY and western SD/NE in the post-frontal upslope flow regime. Isolated hail and strong gusts will be possible with these storms. ...Mid-MS Valley... Forecast guidance has trended weaker with a prior depiction of a weak low/MCV across the Ozarks/Mid-MS Valley vicinity. A very moist airmass (70s F dewpoints) will be in place, supporting modest instability (1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE). However, vertical shear is forecast to be very weak (around 15 kt), limiting potential for organized/longer-lived updrafts. Where stronger heating occurs, steepened low-level lapse rates could support sporadic strong downburst winds. Overall severe potential appear limited and the Marginal risk (level 1 of 5) has been removed with this update. ..Leitman.. 07/14/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1235 AM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NEBRASKA AND SOUTH DAKOTA... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible Tuesday afternoon and evening across portions of the central Plains to Upper Midwest. A greater concentration of severe wind gusts and hail will be focused mainly across parts of Nebraska and South Dakota. ...Northern/Central Plains to Upper Midwest... A positive-tilt upper shortwave trough is forecast to eject eastward across the northern Rockies on Tuesday. Another shortwave impulse ahead of this main system will move across SD/NE and into the Upper Midwest. Both of these features will result in increasing mid/upper westerly flow. In response to increasing flow and height falls, a surface low will develop over western SD and move into southern MN by Wednesday morning. Meanwhile, a cold front will sag southward across MT, the Dakotas and northern MN, while a surface trough extends southward into the central High Plains. Ahead of the triple point within the warm sector south of the cold front, mid/upper 60s F dewpoints will be in place beneath steep midlevel lapse rates. This will foster 2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE. Vertical shear around 25-35 kt will support a mix of cells and clusters capable of producing damaging gusts and hail. Most guidance suggest some upscale growth will occur via clustering/consolidating outflows by late afternoon across parts of SD/NE. A 30-40 kt southwesterly low-level jet developing by early evening could aid in maintaining a bowing MCS with eastward extent toward the MO River. If this occurs, an increasing risk for severe wind gusts will be possible. Given a consistent signal across forecast guidance and a favorable forecast environment, a Slight risk (level 2 of 5) has been included, mainly for parts of NE/SD. Additional strong to isolated severe storms will be possible along the sagging cold front into northern MN, as well as across eastern WY and western SD/NE in the post-frontal upslope flow regime. Isolated hail and strong gusts will be possible with these storms. ...Mid-MS Valley... Forecast guidance has trended weaker with a prior depiction of a weak low/MCV across the Ozarks/Mid-MS Valley vicinity. A very moist airmass (70s F dewpoints) will be in place, supporting modest instability (1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE). However, vertical shear is forecast to be very weak (around 15 kt), limiting potential for organized/longer-lived updrafts. Where stronger heating occurs, steepened low-level lapse rates could support sporadic strong downburst winds. Overall severe potential appear limited and the Marginal risk (level 1 of 5) has been removed with this update. ..Leitman.. 07/14/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1235 AM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NEBRASKA AND SOUTH DAKOTA... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible Tuesday afternoon and evening across portions of the central Plains to Upper Midwest. A greater concentration of severe wind gusts and hail will be focused mainly across parts of Nebraska and South Dakota. ...Northern/Central Plains to Upper Midwest... A positive-tilt upper shortwave trough is forecast to eject eastward across the northern Rockies on Tuesday. Another shortwave impulse ahead of this main system will move across SD/NE and into the Upper Midwest. Both of these features will result in increasing mid/upper westerly flow. In response to increasing flow and height falls, a surface low will develop over western SD and move into southern MN by Wednesday morning. Meanwhile, a cold front will sag southward across MT, the Dakotas and northern MN, while a surface trough extends southward into the central High Plains. Ahead of the triple point within the warm sector south of the cold front, mid/upper 60s F dewpoints will be in place beneath steep midlevel lapse rates. This will foster 2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE. Vertical shear around 25-35 kt will support a mix of cells and clusters capable of producing damaging gusts and hail. Most guidance suggest some upscale growth will occur via clustering/consolidating outflows by late afternoon across parts of SD/NE. A 30-40 kt southwesterly low-level jet developing by early evening could aid in maintaining a bowing MCS with eastward extent toward the MO River. If this occurs, an increasing risk for severe wind gusts will be possible. Given a consistent signal across forecast guidance and a favorable forecast environment, a Slight risk (level 2 of 5) has been included, mainly for parts of NE/SD. Additional strong to isolated severe storms will be possible along the sagging cold front into northern MN, as well as across eastern WY and western SD/NE in the post-frontal upslope flow regime. Isolated hail and strong gusts will be possible with these storms. ...Mid-MS Valley... Forecast guidance has trended weaker with a prior depiction of a weak low/MCV across the Ozarks/Mid-MS Valley vicinity. A very moist airmass (70s F dewpoints) will be in place, supporting modest instability (1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE). However, vertical shear is forecast to be very weak (around 15 kt), limiting potential for organized/longer-lived updrafts. Where stronger heating occurs, steepened low-level lapse rates could support sporadic strong downburst winds. Overall severe potential appear limited and the Marginal risk (level 1 of 5) has been removed with this update. ..Leitman.. 07/14/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1246 AM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE NORTHERN...EASTERN...AND SOUTHWEST STATES... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across the northern High/Great Plains, East, Mid-South, and southeast Arizona this afternoon into tonight. ...Northern High/Great Plains... A shortwave trough will dig south across BC and reach the northern Rockies by 12Z Tuesday. A belt of strong mid-level westerlies will be centered along the international border through the Upper Midwest, with downstream low-amplitude shortwave impulses across south-central Canada. This setup will yield a pronounced west/east-oriented surface front, with the gradient strengthened by differential heating, bisecting MT to northern MN. The western portion of the front will steadily progress south as a cyclone develops near the MT/ND/SD border. Scattered to numerous late-afternoon/early evening thunderstorms are likely over the higher terrain in an arc from the MT/WY border across western SD and the WY/NE border area. This initial activity will be high-based with deep inverted-v thermodynamic profiles downstream, supporting sporadic severe gusts amid weaker deep-layer shear with southern extent. A couple short-lived supercells may develop within a mesoscale corridor downstream into the south-central ND vicinity. Pronounced MLCIN in the warm/moist sector with southeast extent should mitigate greater severe coverage. Otherwise, mainly elevated thunderstorms will become prevalent from dusk through the overnight across north-central MT to northern MN. Given the aforementioned strong mid-level westerlies, isolated severe hail and locally strong gusts will be possible into early morning Tuesday. ...East... Within a persistent high PW air mass from the Northeast to FL, greater boundary-layer heating is expected from MD southward. This will yield a broad swath of 2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE by afternoon. Farther north, more limited heating is anticipated, muting buoyancy amid weak mid-level lapse rates. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms will develop from southeast NY to FL. Deep-layer shear will be weak, but could be slightly greater in the Northeast ahead of an MCV (currently over OH) and in FL amid modest mid-level northerlies. Similar to recent days, isolated damaging winds are anticipated. ...Mid-South... An MCV near FSM should drift east-northeast with an accompanying belt of modestly enhanced 700-mb southwesterlies to its immediate southeast. This may support an isolated damaging wind threat by afternoon, along the northern periphery of ample buoyancy over the Lower MS Valley to Deep South. ...Southeast AZ... With a mid-level anticyclone remaining anchored over the southern Great Basin, modestly enhanced northeasterlies will envelop most of southern AZ by peak heating. Guidance signals are mixed on whether a slow-moving cluster may develop off the higher terrain of the AZ/NM border region. Consensus suggests more discrete activity. But similar to Sunday evening, a short-lived cluster may form with a primary threat of localized severe gusts. ..Grams/Thornton.. 07/14/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1246 AM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE NORTHERN...EASTERN...AND SOUTHWEST STATES... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across the northern High/Great Plains, East, Mid-South, and southeast Arizona this afternoon into tonight. ...Northern High/Great Plains... A shortwave trough will dig south across BC and reach the northern Rockies by 12Z Tuesday. A belt of strong mid-level westerlies will be centered along the international border through the Upper Midwest, with downstream low-amplitude shortwave impulses across south-central Canada. This setup will yield a pronounced west/east-oriented surface front, with the gradient strengthened by differential heating, bisecting MT to northern MN. The western portion of the front will steadily progress south as a cyclone develops near the MT/ND/SD border. Scattered to numerous late-afternoon/early evening thunderstorms are likely over the higher terrain in an arc from the MT/WY border across western SD and the WY/NE border area. This initial activity will be high-based with deep inverted-v thermodynamic profiles downstream, supporting sporadic severe gusts amid weaker deep-layer shear with southern extent. A couple short-lived supercells may develop within a mesoscale corridor downstream into the south-central ND vicinity. Pronounced MLCIN in the warm/moist sector with southeast extent should mitigate greater severe coverage. Otherwise, mainly elevated thunderstorms will become prevalent from dusk through the overnight across north-central MT to northern MN. Given the aforementioned strong mid-level westerlies, isolated severe hail and locally strong gusts will be possible into early morning Tuesday. ...East... Within a persistent high PW air mass from the Northeast to FL, greater boundary-layer heating is expected from MD southward. This will yield a broad swath of 2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE by afternoon. Farther north, more limited heating is anticipated, muting buoyancy amid weak mid-level lapse rates. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms will develop from southeast NY to FL. Deep-layer shear will be weak, but could be slightly greater in the Northeast ahead of an MCV (currently over OH) and in FL amid modest mid-level northerlies. Similar to recent days, isolated damaging winds are anticipated. ...Mid-South... An MCV near FSM should drift east-northeast with an accompanying belt of modestly enhanced 700-mb southwesterlies to its immediate southeast. This may support an isolated damaging wind threat by afternoon, along the northern periphery of ample buoyancy over the Lower MS Valley to Deep South. ...Southeast AZ... With a mid-level anticyclone remaining anchored over the southern Great Basin, modestly enhanced northeasterlies will envelop most of southern AZ by peak heating. Guidance signals are mixed on whether a slow-moving cluster may develop off the higher terrain of the AZ/NM border region. Consensus suggests more discrete activity. But similar to Sunday evening, a short-lived cluster may form with a primary threat of localized severe gusts. ..Grams/Thornton.. 07/14/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1246 AM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE NORTHERN...EASTERN...AND SOUTHWEST STATES... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across the northern High/Great Plains, East, Mid-South, and southeast Arizona this afternoon into tonight. ...Northern High/Great Plains... A shortwave trough will dig south across BC and reach the northern Rockies by 12Z Tuesday. A belt of strong mid-level westerlies will be centered along the international border through the Upper Midwest, with downstream low-amplitude shortwave impulses across south-central Canada. This setup will yield a pronounced west/east-oriented surface front, with the gradient strengthened by differential heating, bisecting MT to northern MN. The western portion of the front will steadily progress south as a cyclone develops near the MT/ND/SD border. Scattered to numerous late-afternoon/early evening thunderstorms are likely over the higher terrain in an arc from the MT/WY border across western SD and the WY/NE border area. This initial activity will be high-based with deep inverted-v thermodynamic profiles downstream, supporting sporadic severe gusts amid weaker deep-layer shear with southern extent. A couple short-lived supercells may develop within a mesoscale corridor downstream into the south-central ND vicinity. Pronounced MLCIN in the warm/moist sector with southeast extent should mitigate greater severe coverage. Otherwise, mainly elevated thunderstorms will become prevalent from dusk through the overnight across north-central MT to northern MN. Given the aforementioned strong mid-level westerlies, isolated severe hail and locally strong gusts will be possible into early morning Tuesday. ...East... Within a persistent high PW air mass from the Northeast to FL, greater boundary-layer heating is expected from MD southward. This will yield a broad swath of 2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE by afternoon. Farther north, more limited heating is anticipated, muting buoyancy amid weak mid-level lapse rates. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms will develop from southeast NY to FL. Deep-layer shear will be weak, but could be slightly greater in the Northeast ahead of an MCV (currently over OH) and in FL amid modest mid-level northerlies. Similar to recent days, isolated damaging winds are anticipated. ...Mid-South... An MCV near FSM should drift east-northeast with an accompanying belt of modestly enhanced 700-mb southwesterlies to its immediate southeast. This may support an isolated damaging wind threat by afternoon, along the northern periphery of ample buoyancy over the Lower MS Valley to Deep South. ...Southeast AZ... With a mid-level anticyclone remaining anchored over the southern Great Basin, modestly enhanced northeasterlies will envelop most of southern AZ by peak heating. Guidance signals are mixed on whether a slow-moving cluster may develop off the higher terrain of the AZ/NM border region. Consensus suggests more discrete activity. But similar to Sunday evening, a short-lived cluster may form with a primary threat of localized severe gusts. ..Grams/Thornton.. 07/14/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1246 AM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE NORTHERN...EASTERN...AND SOUTHWEST STATES... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across the northern High/Great Plains, East, Mid-South, and southeast Arizona this afternoon into tonight. ...Northern High/Great Plains... A shortwave trough will dig south across BC and reach the northern Rockies by 12Z Tuesday. A belt of strong mid-level westerlies will be centered along the international border through the Upper Midwest, with downstream low-amplitude shortwave impulses across south-central Canada. This setup will yield a pronounced west/east-oriented surface front, with the gradient strengthened by differential heating, bisecting MT to northern MN. The western portion of the front will steadily progress south as a cyclone develops near the MT/ND/SD border. Scattered to numerous late-afternoon/early evening thunderstorms are likely over the higher terrain in an arc from the MT/WY border across western SD and the WY/NE border area. This initial activity will be high-based with deep inverted-v thermodynamic profiles downstream, supporting sporadic severe gusts amid weaker deep-layer shear with southern extent. A couple short-lived supercells may develop within a mesoscale corridor downstream into the south-central ND vicinity. Pronounced MLCIN in the warm/moist sector with southeast extent should mitigate greater severe coverage. Otherwise, mainly elevated thunderstorms will become prevalent from dusk through the overnight across north-central MT to northern MN. Given the aforementioned strong mid-level westerlies, isolated severe hail and locally strong gusts will be possible into early morning Tuesday. ...East... Within a persistent high PW air mass from the Northeast to FL, greater boundary-layer heating is expected from MD southward. This will yield a broad swath of 2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE by afternoon. Farther north, more limited heating is anticipated, muting buoyancy amid weak mid-level lapse rates. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms will develop from southeast NY to FL. Deep-layer shear will be weak, but could be slightly greater in the Northeast ahead of an MCV (currently over OH) and in FL amid modest mid-level northerlies. Similar to recent days, isolated damaging winds are anticipated. ...Mid-South... An MCV near FSM should drift east-northeast with an accompanying belt of modestly enhanced 700-mb southwesterlies to its immediate southeast. This may support an isolated damaging wind threat by afternoon, along the northern periphery of ample buoyancy over the Lower MS Valley to Deep South. ...Southeast AZ... With a mid-level anticyclone remaining anchored over the southern Great Basin, modestly enhanced northeasterlies will envelop most of southern AZ by peak heating. Guidance signals are mixed on whether a slow-moving cluster may develop off the higher terrain of the AZ/NM border region. Consensus suggests more discrete activity. But similar to Sunday evening, a short-lived cluster may form with a primary threat of localized severe gusts. ..Grams/Thornton.. 07/14/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1246 AM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE NORTHERN...EASTERN...AND SOUTHWEST STATES... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across the northern High/Great Plains, East, Mid-South, and southeast Arizona this afternoon into tonight. ...Northern High/Great Plains... A shortwave trough will dig south across BC and reach the northern Rockies by 12Z Tuesday. A belt of strong mid-level westerlies will be centered along the international border through the Upper Midwest, with downstream low-amplitude shortwave impulses across south-central Canada. This setup will yield a pronounced west/east-oriented surface front, with the gradient strengthened by differential heating, bisecting MT to northern MN. The western portion of the front will steadily progress south as a cyclone develops near the MT/ND/SD border. Scattered to numerous late-afternoon/early evening thunderstorms are likely over the higher terrain in an arc from the MT/WY border across western SD and the WY/NE border area. This initial activity will be high-based with deep inverted-v thermodynamic profiles downstream, supporting sporadic severe gusts amid weaker deep-layer shear with southern extent. A couple short-lived supercells may develop within a mesoscale corridor downstream into the south-central ND vicinity. Pronounced MLCIN in the warm/moist sector with southeast extent should mitigate greater severe coverage. Otherwise, mainly elevated thunderstorms will become prevalent from dusk through the overnight across north-central MT to northern MN. Given the aforementioned strong mid-level westerlies, isolated severe hail and locally strong gusts will be possible into early morning Tuesday. ...East... Within a persistent high PW air mass from the Northeast to FL, greater boundary-layer heating is expected from MD southward. This will yield a broad swath of 2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE by afternoon. Farther north, more limited heating is anticipated, muting buoyancy amid weak mid-level lapse rates. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms will develop from southeast NY to FL. Deep-layer shear will be weak, but could be slightly greater in the Northeast ahead of an MCV (currently over OH) and in FL amid modest mid-level northerlies. Similar to recent days, isolated damaging winds are anticipated. ...Mid-South... An MCV near FSM should drift east-northeast with an accompanying belt of modestly enhanced 700-mb southwesterlies to its immediate southeast. This may support an isolated damaging wind threat by afternoon, along the northern periphery of ample buoyancy over the Lower MS Valley to Deep South. ...Southeast AZ... With a mid-level anticyclone remaining anchored over the southern Great Basin, modestly enhanced northeasterlies will envelop most of southern AZ by peak heating. Guidance signals are mixed on whether a slow-moving cluster may develop off the higher terrain of the AZ/NM border region. Consensus suggests more discrete activity. But similar to Sunday evening, a short-lived cluster may form with a primary threat of localized severe gusts. ..Grams/Thornton.. 07/14/2025 Read more

MD 1666 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA
Mesoscale Discussion 1666 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0734 PM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025 Areas affected...parts of southeastern Arizona Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 140034Z - 140230Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorm activity accompanied by a few strong to locally severe surface gusts may impact the Greater Tucson area by 7-8 PM MST. DISCUSSION...Although convective inhibition is strong across the strongly heated and deeply mixed boundary layer across the lower deserts, latest objective analysis indicates that inhibition across elevations around Tucson is much more modest in the peak afternoon heating. A corridor of modest CAPE appears to linger from from northeast of the Greater Tucson area into areas just to the southwest, generally aligned with the 10-20 kt east-northeasterly mid-level steering flow for convection. A small cluster of storms which initiated across the mountains of northeastern Cochise Country, perhaps aided by outflow from a dissipating cluster across the higher terrain of southwestern New Mexico, appears to be in the process of gradually propagating off (west/southwest of) the higher terrain. It appears possible that forcing for ascent along the associated outflow could support thunderstorm development into and across the Greater Tucson area by around 02-03Z, before inhibition with the loss of daytime heating becomes increasingly suppressive of thunderstorm development. As this occurs, with the sub-cloud layer to the surface still characterized by large temperature-dew point spreads (including 30-40+ F at the surface), even with some cooling off of current temperatures in excess of 100F, the potential for a few strong to severe outflow gusts seems likely to continue. ..Kerr/Thompson.. 07/14/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...TWC... LAT...LON 32151123 32251047 32121017 31880969 31630966 31381042 31411101 31891146 32151123 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0744 PM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025 Valid 140100Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHEAST AZ TO SOUTH-CENTRAL NM... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe gusts remain possible into late evening across southeast Arizona to south-central New Mexico. ...01Z Update... Multiple weakly organized clusters are ongoing across southeast AZ to south-central NM, within a modest combination of deep-layer shear and lingering buoyancy. Prior overturning and lack of greater organization should result in severe wind potential diminishing over the next couple hours. See MCD 1666 for additional discussion. Elsewhere, locally strong storms are expected to diminish over the next couple hours across the East, South-Central States, and Upper Midwest. Isolated strong gusts may accompany convection developing tonight along the international border in MT/ND from the southern Canadian Prairies, where scant elevated buoyancy should be present atop residual inverted-v thermodynamic profiles. ..Grams.. 07/14/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0744 PM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025 Valid 140100Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHEAST AZ TO SOUTH-CENTRAL NM... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe gusts remain possible into late evening across southeast Arizona to south-central New Mexico. ...01Z Update... Multiple weakly organized clusters are ongoing across southeast AZ to south-central NM, within a modest combination of deep-layer shear and lingering buoyancy. Prior overturning and lack of greater organization should result in severe wind potential diminishing over the next couple hours. See MCD 1666 for additional discussion. Elsewhere, locally strong storms are expected to diminish over the next couple hours across the East, South-Central States, and Upper Midwest. Isolated strong gusts may accompany convection developing tonight along the international border in MT/ND from the southern Canadian Prairies, where scant elevated buoyancy should be present atop residual inverted-v thermodynamic profiles. ..Grams.. 07/14/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0744 PM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025 Valid 140100Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHEAST AZ TO SOUTH-CENTRAL NM... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe gusts remain possible into late evening across southeast Arizona to south-central New Mexico. ...01Z Update... Multiple weakly organized clusters are ongoing across southeast AZ to south-central NM, within a modest combination of deep-layer shear and lingering buoyancy. Prior overturning and lack of greater organization should result in severe wind potential diminishing over the next couple hours. See MCD 1666 for additional discussion. Elsewhere, locally strong storms are expected to diminish over the next couple hours across the East, South-Central States, and Upper Midwest. Isolated strong gusts may accompany convection developing tonight along the international border in MT/ND from the southern Canadian Prairies, where scant elevated buoyancy should be present atop residual inverted-v thermodynamic profiles. ..Grams.. 07/14/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0744 PM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025 Valid 140100Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHEAST AZ TO SOUTH-CENTRAL NM... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe gusts remain possible into late evening across southeast Arizona to south-central New Mexico. ...01Z Update... Multiple weakly organized clusters are ongoing across southeast AZ to south-central NM, within a modest combination of deep-layer shear and lingering buoyancy. Prior overturning and lack of greater organization should result in severe wind potential diminishing over the next couple hours. See MCD 1666 for additional discussion. Elsewhere, locally strong storms are expected to diminish over the next couple hours across the East, South-Central States, and Upper Midwest. Isolated strong gusts may accompany convection developing tonight along the international border in MT/ND from the southern Canadian Prairies, where scant elevated buoyancy should be present atop residual inverted-v thermodynamic profiles. ..Grams.. 07/14/2025 Read more

No watches are valid as of Sun Jul 13 23:16:02 UTC 2025.

MD 1665 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR FAR NORTHEASTERN NEBRASKA...EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...SOUTHWESTERN MINNESOTA...NORTHEASTERN IOWA
Mesoscale Discussion 1665 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0547 PM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025 Areas affected...far northeastern Nebraska...eastern South Dakota...southwestern Minnesota...northeastern Iowa Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 132247Z - 140045Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Isolated risk for damaging wind and large hail with storms through the evening. DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms have developed as weak forcing for ascent has overspread a cold front/stationary front extending from Nebraska into central Minnesota. The air mass ahead of the boundary is moist and very unstable, with temperatures in the mid to upper 80s and dew points in the upper 60s. Deep layer shear around 30 kts and steep low-level lapse rates will be sufficient for a few organized cells to pose a risk for damaging wind and large hail. Overall, guidance suggests storm coverage will remain fairly isolated amid weak upper forcing and warmer mid-level temperatures. As such, the isolated nature of the threat will preclude watch issuance. ..Thornton/Thompson.. 07/13/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...FSD...OAX...ABR...LBF... LAT...LON 45779370 44709358 43489529 42809648 42339727 42649854 44499764 45409675 45949593 46309516 46209424 45779370 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

MD 1663 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR SOUTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO AND SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA
Mesoscale Discussion 1663 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0338 PM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025 Areas affected...southwestern New Mexico and southeastern Arizona Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 132038Z - 132315Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Storms are expected to increase in coverage and intensity through the afternoon and into the evening, posing a severe wind risk. A severe thunderstorm watch is possible. DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms have initiated over the high terrain this afternoon across the region. While moisture is meager for this time of year, it is sufficient to support 500-1000 J/kg of MLCAPE and robust updrafts. The 18Z Tucson sounding represents the characteristic well-mixed, inverted-V sounding profiles across the region. Certainly, this environment will support dry-microburst potential for the strongest storms. With northeasterly midlevel flow expected to increase this afternoon and evening, a more organized wind threat could develop and move south-southwestward off the higher terrain. Convective trends will continue to be monitored for the possibility of watch issuance. ..Jirak/Mosier.. 07/13/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...TWC...FGZ...PSR... LAT...LON 33980977 33830876 33570786 33230767 32500760 32060779 31780818 31430855 31340940 31361050 31461089 31861121 32191135 32561134 33451099 33980977 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more