Severe Storms

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0139 PM CDT Sun Aug 18 2019 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes. Previous discussion follows. ..Bentley.. 08/18/2019 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0129 AM CDT Sun Aug 18 2019/ ...Synopsis... Upper-level ridging will continue to strengthen and amplify over the western CONUS tomorrow. Much of the Intermountain West will remain hot/dry, and large-scale flow will be relatively weak across the region. A weak mid-level shortwave trough is forecast to move over the northern Rockies during the day, which could help initiate isolated dry thunderstorms across southwest Montana/vicinity. However, with heights generally rising across the region and forecast relatively dry (precipitable water values of 0.4-0.6") and stable conditions (ML/MUCAPE < 250 J/kg) conditions, an area was not introduced. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0139 PM CDT Sun Aug 18 2019 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes. Previous discussion follows. ..Bentley.. 08/18/2019 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0129 AM CDT Sun Aug 18 2019/ ...Synopsis... Upper-level ridging will continue to strengthen and amplify over the western CONUS tomorrow. Much of the Intermountain West will remain hot/dry, and large-scale flow will be relatively weak across the region. A weak mid-level shortwave trough is forecast to move over the northern Rockies during the day, which could help initiate isolated dry thunderstorms across southwest Montana/vicinity. However, with heights generally rising across the region and forecast relatively dry (precipitable water values of 0.4-0.6") and stable conditions (ML/MUCAPE < 250 J/kg) conditions, an area was not introduced. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

WW 0598 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0598 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

No watches are valid as of Sun Aug 18 17:37:02 UTC 2019.

MD 1791 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF IN...SOUTHERN IL AND SOUTHEAST MO
Mesoscale Discussion 1791 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1235 PM CDT Sun Aug 18 2019 Areas affected...portions of IN...southern IL and southeast MO Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 181735Z - 181930Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will increase in coverage and intensity through the afternoon. Damaging wind gusts are the main concern with storms heading into early evening, and a watch may be needed this afternoon. DISCUSSION...Latest visible satellite imagery shows increasing CU development along the composite outflow/front extending from northeast IN southwestward toward southern portions of the greater St. Louis metro area and the Missouri portion of the Ozarks. A few lightning strikes have been noted with this deepening convection near the IL/IN border as well as across Madison/St. Clair Counties near St. Louis. Strong heating of this region, where surface dewpoint are generally in the low to mid 70s, has resulted in 1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE with little inhibition remaining. While the main shortwave trough will continue to lift northeast across the Great Lakes, several shortwave impulses and remnant MCVs are embedded in westerly flow and shifting east across MO, as noted in midday WV loop. Storms should continue increasing along the boundary though the afternoon, with an attendant severe threat possible. The area will remain on the fringes of stronger deep layer flow, with around 25-30 kt effective shear forecast. However, moderate instability and steep low level lapse rates in the presence of high PW (1.75-2.0 in) should support areas of strong downburst winds. If storm clusters become better organized through cell mergers or outflow interactions, the damaging wind threat could increase. Given modest shear/midlevel lapse rates and storm mode, the hail threat should remain secondary to that of strong wind gusts, though a few marginally severe hail reports are possible. Trends will continue to be monitored and a watch may be needed this afternoon. ..Leitman/Thompson.. 08/18/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ILN...LMK...IWX...IND...PAH...ILX...LSX...SGF... LAT...LON 39708525 40128500 40618492 40928515 41048556 40528656 39288876 37719145 37459157 37209162 36949147 36769095 36839041 37308918 38448710 39708525 Read more

MD 1790 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS
Mesoscale Discussion 1790 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 PM CDT Sun Aug 18 2019 Areas affected...Portions of Oklahoma and Arkansas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 181729Z - 181930Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Isolated strong storms are expected through this afternoon. The strongest storms will pose a risk for damaging wind gusts and large hail. A WW is not anticipated at this time. DISCUSSION...A cluster of thunderstorms over portions of eastern Oklahoma has strengthened over the last hour amidst an environment characterized by 1500-2500 J/kg of MLCAPE and 25-40 knots of effective bulk shear -- greatest in the western portion of MCD area. Uncertainty remains rather high regarding the evolution/longevity/intensity of this activity through the remainder of the afternoon -- especially considering the poor handling of the current activity by CAM guidance. Nevertheless, any storms that are able to develop/persist in this environment will pose a risk for damaging wind gusts and large hail. At this time, the coverage of strong/severe storms appears too limited for a Severe Thunderstorm Watch. Though, trends in radar, observational, and CAM data will continued to be monitored through the remainder of the afternoon. ..Elliott/Thompson.. 08/18/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MEG...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN... LAT...LON 35169713 35879534 36239439 36459348 36419251 36309157 35799098 35169102 34829142 34479215 34229395 33939621 33979777 34099856 34379862 34699818 35169713 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1200 PM CDT Sun Aug 18 2019 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms are possible over parts of the Upper Midwest Monday evening and overnight. ...Dakotas into northwest MN... Zonal flow will characterize the flow regime across the northern tier of states. A mid-level speed max initially near the ID/MT/BC border will quickly move east to the Dakotas by Tuesday morning. Southerly low-level flow on the backside of a surface high developing eastward into the Great Lakes from the Upper Midwest, will advect 60s degrees F dewpoints northward into the Dakotas to the southeast of a weak area of low pressure. Strong heating abutting a north-south surface trough/wind shift will likely weaken/locally erode convective inhibition by late afternoon/early evening. Isolated storms are possible along the wind shift and later along a cold front. The stronger storms are capable of an isolated risk for hail/severe gusts. ...Northern NY into ME... Low-level winds will continue to veer during the day as the shortwave trough ejects east/northeast over the region. Forecast soundings show sufficient instability for thunderstorms during the day, and modest deep shear, but midlevel subsidence will likely mitigate overall storm coverage and intensity. As such, severe weather is not currently forecast, but a few strong storms cannot be ruled out with gusty winds and small hail. ...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD... Tornado: <2% - None Wind: 5% - Marginal Hail: 5% - Marginal ..Smith.. 08/18/2019 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1200 PM CDT Sun Aug 18 2019 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms are possible over parts of the Upper Midwest Monday evening and overnight. ...Dakotas into northwest MN... Zonal flow will characterize the flow regime across the northern tier of states. A mid-level speed max initially near the ID/MT/BC border will quickly move east to the Dakotas by Tuesday morning. Southerly low-level flow on the backside of a surface high developing eastward into the Great Lakes from the Upper Midwest, will advect 60s degrees F dewpoints northward into the Dakotas to the southeast of a weak area of low pressure. Strong heating abutting a north-south surface trough/wind shift will likely weaken/locally erode convective inhibition by late afternoon/early evening. Isolated storms are possible along the wind shift and later along a cold front. The stronger storms are capable of an isolated risk for hail/severe gusts. ...Northern NY into ME... Low-level winds will continue to veer during the day as the shortwave trough ejects east/northeast over the region. Forecast soundings show sufficient instability for thunderstorms during the day, and modest deep shear, but midlevel subsidence will likely mitigate overall storm coverage and intensity. As such, severe weather is not currently forecast, but a few strong storms cannot be ruled out with gusty winds and small hail. ...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD... Tornado: <2% - None Wind: 5% - Marginal Hail: 5% - Marginal ..Smith.. 08/18/2019 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1200 PM CDT Sun Aug 18 2019 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms are possible over parts of the Upper Midwest Monday evening and overnight. ...Dakotas into northwest MN... Zonal flow will characterize the flow regime across the northern tier of states. A mid-level speed max initially near the ID/MT/BC border will quickly move east to the Dakotas by Tuesday morning. Southerly low-level flow on the backside of a surface high developing eastward into the Great Lakes from the Upper Midwest, will advect 60s degrees F dewpoints northward into the Dakotas to the southeast of a weak area of low pressure. Strong heating abutting a north-south surface trough/wind shift will likely weaken/locally erode convective inhibition by late afternoon/early evening. Isolated storms are possible along the wind shift and later along a cold front. The stronger storms are capable of an isolated risk for hail/severe gusts. ...Northern NY into ME... Low-level winds will continue to veer during the day as the shortwave trough ejects east/northeast over the region. Forecast soundings show sufficient instability for thunderstorms during the day, and modest deep shear, but midlevel subsidence will likely mitigate overall storm coverage and intensity. As such, severe weather is not currently forecast, but a few strong storms cannot be ruled out with gusty winds and small hail. ...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD... Tornado: <2% - None Wind: 5% - Marginal Hail: 5% - Marginal ..Smith.. 08/18/2019 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1200 PM CDT Sun Aug 18 2019 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms are possible over parts of the Upper Midwest Monday evening and overnight. ...Dakotas into northwest MN... Zonal flow will characterize the flow regime across the northern tier of states. A mid-level speed max initially near the ID/MT/BC border will quickly move east to the Dakotas by Tuesday morning. Southerly low-level flow on the backside of a surface high developing eastward into the Great Lakes from the Upper Midwest, will advect 60s degrees F dewpoints northward into the Dakotas to the southeast of a weak area of low pressure. Strong heating abutting a north-south surface trough/wind shift will likely weaken/locally erode convective inhibition by late afternoon/early evening. Isolated storms are possible along the wind shift and later along a cold front. The stronger storms are capable of an isolated risk for hail/severe gusts. ...Northern NY into ME... Low-level winds will continue to veer during the day as the shortwave trough ejects east/northeast over the region. Forecast soundings show sufficient instability for thunderstorms during the day, and modest deep shear, but midlevel subsidence will likely mitigate overall storm coverage and intensity. As such, severe weather is not currently forecast, but a few strong storms cannot be ruled out with gusty winds and small hail. ...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD... Tornado: <2% - None Wind: 5% - Marginal Hail: 5% - Marginal ..Smith.. 08/18/2019 Read more

MD 1789 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN PA INTO CENTRAL NY
Mesoscale Discussion 1789 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1155 AM CDT Sun Aug 18 2019 Areas affected...portions of northern PA into central NY Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 181655Z - 181800Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...A few strong wind gusts, resulting in sporadic tree damage, could accompany storms through the afternoon. DISCUSSION...A shortwave impulse shifting east across the lower Great Lakes is aiding in scattered thunderstorm development across parts of northern PA and central NY early this afternoon. Strong heating has allowed the upper 60s/low 70s F dewpoint airmass to rapidly destabilize, with around 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE already evident across PA. Instability will continue to modestly increase northward into central NY through the afternoon. Lapse rates will remain poor, and effective shear is marginal at around 25 kt, acting to limit overall storm intensity, though a few semi-organized clusters are possible. Steep low level lapse rates and light 0-2 km flow could aid in a few stronger downdrafts capable of locally strong gusts. ..Leitman/Thompson.. 08/18/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BTV...ALY...BGM...BUF...CTP...PBZ... LAT...LON 42867753 44137614 44307555 44207463 43757424 42667422 41667490 41067620 40757749 40677850 40717908 40957947 41487896 42867753 Read more

MD 1788 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 597... FOR PORTIONS OF LOWER MICHIGAN...NORTHEAST INDIANA...NORTHERN OHIO
Mesoscale Discussion 1788 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1147 AM CDT Sun Aug 18 2019 Areas affected...Portions of Lower Michigan...northeast Indiana...northern Ohio Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 597... Valid 181647Z - 181815Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 597 continues. SUMMARY...A few strong storms with gusty winds remain possible over the next hour or so across eastern portions of WW597 and vicinity. A downstream WW is not expected at this time. DISCUSSION...Regional radar, satellite, and lightning data all suggest an overall weakening trend with the clusters of multicell thunderstorms moving across portions of Lower Michigan, far northeast Indiana and far northwest Ohio. The environment downstream of these thunderstorms is characterized by MLCAPE of near 1000 J/kg and effective bulk shear values of 20-30 knots, which could foster some periodic storm organization with a threat of gusty/locally damaging winds -- especially along the leading edge of the outflow across lower Michigan and northern Ohio. At this time, severe coverage/intensity appears to be too limited for a downstream WW. However, radar/observational trends will continue to be monitored for any restrengthening. CAM guidance also suggest the potential for thunderstorms to redevelop this afternoon across this area. However, the current thunderstorms have not been modeled well, which renders low confidence in whether these areas will be able to destabilize in the wake the current activity. ..Elliott.. 08/18/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...CLE...DTX...APX...IWX...GRR... LAT...LON 44158501 44238299 44068216 43798193 43358182 42278212 41808225 41308252 41188338 41158415 41198517 41438526 42368485 43318494 44158501 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Sun Aug 18 2019 Valid 181630Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON FROM SOUTHERN IL TO LOWER MI... ...SUMMARY... The main severe-thunderstorm threat today will be damaging winds from Illinois into eastern Lower Michigan. ...Great Lakes to the Ozarks this afternoon... A northern stream shortwave trough will progress eastward from northern MN across the upper Great Lakes, as midlevel heights begin to rise over the southern Plains. In advance of the northern stream trough, multiple remnant MCVs now from MO to WI will move eastward to IL and Lower MI during the afternoon. Ongoing convection in Lower MI has weakened slowly the past couple of hours. Some strengthening is possible early this afternoon along the leading edge of the outflow into eastern Lower MI as the low levels destabilize with surface heating, though confidence is not particularly high. Larger buoyancy will reside farther south into IN/IL where boundary-layer dewpoints in the low 70s persist beneath the eastern extent of an elevated mixed layer. Convective inhibition will weaken as surface temperatures warm into the upper 80s to lower 90s this afternoon, and new thunderstorm development is expected along the remnant outflow boundaries from MO into IL/IN. Rather modest vertical shear with up to 40 kt midlevel flow will generally favor multicell clusters with damaging winds, though midlevel lapse rates will be sufficiently steep for some hail threat. Storm development is a little less certain from southern MO into eastern OK, given the ongoing midlevel convection and persistent clouds. There is some potential for development this afternoon in the differential heating zone near the southern influence of the MCV over MO. Some warm advection will persist into this evening a bit farther to the northwest, though storm evolution/intensity is still in question. ...NY/PA this afternoon... A weak midlevel trough will move east-northeastward from the lower Great Lakes across NY/PA this afternoon. A broken band of storms now forming in northwest PA is likely the precursor to a loose band of storms that will persist through the afternoon and spread into NY. Multicell clusters and/or low-end supercell structures will pose some threat for damaging gusts this afternoon. ..Thompson/Elliott.. 08/18/2019 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Sun Aug 18 2019 Valid 181630Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON FROM SOUTHERN IL TO LOWER MI... ...SUMMARY... The main severe-thunderstorm threat today will be damaging winds from Illinois into eastern Lower Michigan. ...Great Lakes to the Ozarks this afternoon... A northern stream shortwave trough will progress eastward from northern MN across the upper Great Lakes, as midlevel heights begin to rise over the southern Plains. In advance of the northern stream trough, multiple remnant MCVs now from MO to WI will move eastward to IL and Lower MI during the afternoon. Ongoing convection in Lower MI has weakened slowly the past couple of hours. Some strengthening is possible early this afternoon along the leading edge of the outflow into eastern Lower MI as the low levels destabilize with surface heating, though confidence is not particularly high. Larger buoyancy will reside farther south into IN/IL where boundary-layer dewpoints in the low 70s persist beneath the eastern extent of an elevated mixed layer. Convective inhibition will weaken as surface temperatures warm into the upper 80s to lower 90s this afternoon, and new thunderstorm development is expected along the remnant outflow boundaries from MO into IL/IN. Rather modest vertical shear with up to 40 kt midlevel flow will generally favor multicell clusters with damaging winds, though midlevel lapse rates will be sufficiently steep for some hail threat. Storm development is a little less certain from southern MO into eastern OK, given the ongoing midlevel convection and persistent clouds. There is some potential for development this afternoon in the differential heating zone near the southern influence of the MCV over MO. Some warm advection will persist into this evening a bit farther to the northwest, though storm evolution/intensity is still in question. ...NY/PA this afternoon... A weak midlevel trough will move east-northeastward from the lower Great Lakes across NY/PA this afternoon. A broken band of storms now forming in northwest PA is likely the precursor to a loose band of storms that will persist through the afternoon and spread into NY. Multicell clusters and/or low-end supercell structures will pose some threat for damaging gusts this afternoon. ..Thompson/Elliott.. 08/18/2019 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Sun Aug 18 2019 Valid 181630Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON FROM SOUTHERN IL TO LOWER MI... ...SUMMARY... The main severe-thunderstorm threat today will be damaging winds from Illinois into eastern Lower Michigan. ...Great Lakes to the Ozarks this afternoon... A northern stream shortwave trough will progress eastward from northern MN across the upper Great Lakes, as midlevel heights begin to rise over the southern Plains. In advance of the northern stream trough, multiple remnant MCVs now from MO to WI will move eastward to IL and Lower MI during the afternoon. Ongoing convection in Lower MI has weakened slowly the past couple of hours. Some strengthening is possible early this afternoon along the leading edge of the outflow into eastern Lower MI as the low levels destabilize with surface heating, though confidence is not particularly high. Larger buoyancy will reside farther south into IN/IL where boundary-layer dewpoints in the low 70s persist beneath the eastern extent of an elevated mixed layer. Convective inhibition will weaken as surface temperatures warm into the upper 80s to lower 90s this afternoon, and new thunderstorm development is expected along the remnant outflow boundaries from MO into IL/IN. Rather modest vertical shear with up to 40 kt midlevel flow will generally favor multicell clusters with damaging winds, though midlevel lapse rates will be sufficiently steep for some hail threat. Storm development is a little less certain from southern MO into eastern OK, given the ongoing midlevel convection and persistent clouds. There is some potential for development this afternoon in the differential heating zone near the southern influence of the MCV over MO. Some warm advection will persist into this evening a bit farther to the northwest, though storm evolution/intensity is still in question. ...NY/PA this afternoon... A weak midlevel trough will move east-northeastward from the lower Great Lakes across NY/PA this afternoon. A broken band of storms now forming in northwest PA is likely the precursor to a loose band of storms that will persist through the afternoon and spread into NY. Multicell clusters and/or low-end supercell structures will pose some threat for damaging gusts this afternoon. ..Thompson/Elliott.. 08/18/2019 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Sun Aug 18 2019 Valid 181630Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON FROM SOUTHERN IL TO LOWER MI... ...SUMMARY... The main severe-thunderstorm threat today will be damaging winds from Illinois into eastern Lower Michigan. ...Great Lakes to the Ozarks this afternoon... A northern stream shortwave trough will progress eastward from northern MN across the upper Great Lakes, as midlevel heights begin to rise over the southern Plains. In advance of the northern stream trough, multiple remnant MCVs now from MO to WI will move eastward to IL and Lower MI during the afternoon. Ongoing convection in Lower MI has weakened slowly the past couple of hours. Some strengthening is possible early this afternoon along the leading edge of the outflow into eastern Lower MI as the low levels destabilize with surface heating, though confidence is not particularly high. Larger buoyancy will reside farther south into IN/IL where boundary-layer dewpoints in the low 70s persist beneath the eastern extent of an elevated mixed layer. Convective inhibition will weaken as surface temperatures warm into the upper 80s to lower 90s this afternoon, and new thunderstorm development is expected along the remnant outflow boundaries from MO into IL/IN. Rather modest vertical shear with up to 40 kt midlevel flow will generally favor multicell clusters with damaging winds, though midlevel lapse rates will be sufficiently steep for some hail threat. Storm development is a little less certain from southern MO into eastern OK, given the ongoing midlevel convection and persistent clouds. There is some potential for development this afternoon in the differential heating zone near the southern influence of the MCV over MO. Some warm advection will persist into this evening a bit farther to the northwest, though storm evolution/intensity is still in question. ...NY/PA this afternoon... A weak midlevel trough will move east-northeastward from the lower Great Lakes across NY/PA this afternoon. A broken band of storms now forming in northwest PA is likely the precursor to a loose band of storms that will persist through the afternoon and spread into NY. Multicell clusters and/or low-end supercell structures will pose some threat for damaging gusts this afternoon. ..Thompson/Elliott.. 08/18/2019 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1113 AM CDT Sun Aug 18 2019 Valid 181700Z - 191200Z No changes. See previous discussion below. ..Bentley.. 08/18/2019 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0116 AM CDT Sun Aug 18 2019/ ...Synopsis... Upper-level ridging will amplify over the western CONUS as an upper-level shortwave trough moves over the northern Plains and Great Lakes. Mid-level 25-50 knot westerly flow will remain over the northern Intermountain West with hot/dry conditions across much of the Intermountain West. Elevated conditions (westerly sustained surface winds of 15-20 mph, RH values of 10-20%) will develop from southern Idaho into southern/central Wyoming and northwest Colorado/northeast Utah this afternoon/evening. This is the fourth consecutive day of dry/windy conditions across this area, which will continue to cure fuels with ERCs now mostly in the 70-90th percentiles. Locally elevated conditions (southerly winds of 10-20 mph, RH values of 8-15%) are likely to develop this afternoon/evening across northwest Arizona into southeast Nevada/southwest Utah. While these conditions are relatively common for this area and time of year, dry fuels and ongoing fire activity in the area warranted a mention. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1113 AM CDT Sun Aug 18 2019 Valid 181700Z - 191200Z No changes. See previous discussion below. ..Bentley.. 08/18/2019 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0116 AM CDT Sun Aug 18 2019/ ...Synopsis... Upper-level ridging will amplify over the western CONUS as an upper-level shortwave trough moves over the northern Plains and Great Lakes. Mid-level 25-50 knot westerly flow will remain over the northern Intermountain West with hot/dry conditions across much of the Intermountain West. Elevated conditions (westerly sustained surface winds of 15-20 mph, RH values of 10-20%) will develop from southern Idaho into southern/central Wyoming and northwest Colorado/northeast Utah this afternoon/evening. This is the fourth consecutive day of dry/windy conditions across this area, which will continue to cure fuels with ERCs now mostly in the 70-90th percentiles. Locally elevated conditions (southerly winds of 10-20 mph, RH values of 8-15%) are likely to develop this afternoon/evening across northwest Arizona into southeast Nevada/southwest Utah. While these conditions are relatively common for this area and time of year, dry fuels and ongoing fire activity in the area warranted a mention. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1113 AM CDT Sun Aug 18 2019 Valid 181700Z - 191200Z No changes. See previous discussion below. ..Bentley.. 08/18/2019 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0116 AM CDT Sun Aug 18 2019/ ...Synopsis... Upper-level ridging will amplify over the western CONUS as an upper-level shortwave trough moves over the northern Plains and Great Lakes. Mid-level 25-50 knot westerly flow will remain over the northern Intermountain West with hot/dry conditions across much of the Intermountain West. Elevated conditions (westerly sustained surface winds of 15-20 mph, RH values of 10-20%) will develop from southern Idaho into southern/central Wyoming and northwest Colorado/northeast Utah this afternoon/evening. This is the fourth consecutive day of dry/windy conditions across this area, which will continue to cure fuels with ERCs now mostly in the 70-90th percentiles. Locally elevated conditions (southerly winds of 10-20 mph, RH values of 8-15%) are likely to develop this afternoon/evening across northwest Arizona into southeast Nevada/southwest Utah. While these conditions are relatively common for this area and time of year, dry fuels and ongoing fire activity in the area warranted a mention. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1113 AM CDT Sun Aug 18 2019 Valid 181700Z - 191200Z No changes. See previous discussion below. ..Bentley.. 08/18/2019 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0116 AM CDT Sun Aug 18 2019/ ...Synopsis... Upper-level ridging will amplify over the western CONUS as an upper-level shortwave trough moves over the northern Plains and Great Lakes. Mid-level 25-50 knot westerly flow will remain over the northern Intermountain West with hot/dry conditions across much of the Intermountain West. Elevated conditions (westerly sustained surface winds of 15-20 mph, RH values of 10-20%) will develop from southern Idaho into southern/central Wyoming and northwest Colorado/northeast Utah this afternoon/evening. This is the fourth consecutive day of dry/windy conditions across this area, which will continue to cure fuels with ERCs now mostly in the 70-90th percentiles. Locally elevated conditions (southerly winds of 10-20 mph, RH values of 8-15%) are likely to develop this afternoon/evening across northwest Arizona into southeast Nevada/southwest Utah. While these conditions are relatively common for this area and time of year, dry fuels and ongoing fire activity in the area warranted a mention. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more