Severe Storms

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1011 AM CDT Thu Sep 29 2022 Valid 291700Z - 301200Z The forecast remains on track with only minor adjustments needed based on morning surface observations and the latest hi-res guidance. Localized elevated conditions will be possible this afternoon across northeast NV as well as the OK/TX Panhandles and portions of the central Plains. However, confidence in the duration/coverage of these conditions remains too limited for additional highlights. ..Moore.. 09/29/2022 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0134 AM CDT Thu Sep 29 2022/ ...Synopsis... Surface pressure gradients between Hurricane Ian and the surface high near the Great Lakes will continue on Thursday, allowing lingering areas of elevated fire weather to be possible across the far western Florida Panhandle into southern Alabama. ...Alabama/Florida Panhandle... Areas of elevated fire weather are possible across the far western Florida Panhandle into southern Alabama on Thursday where minimum humidity around 30 percent will coincide with northeasterly winds sustained at 15-20 mph. Fuels along the Florida Panhandle into Alabama continue to be critically dry above the 95 percentile. Further east along the Florida Panhandle, low clouds may increase in the afternoon as moisture moves in from the east due to Hurricane Ian's continued track off the East Coast. This may keep afternoon relative humidity above elevated thresholds with lighter surface winds amid more shallow mixing. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

MD 1842 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 546... FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL FL
Mesoscale Discussion 1842 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1218 PM CDT Wed Sep 28 2022 Areas affected...Parts of central and east-central FL Concerning...Tornado Watch 546... Valid 281718Z - 281915Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 546 continues. SUMMARY...The risk of a few tornadoes should gradually increase across parts of central and east-central FL this afternoon, with a potential focus from Lake Okeechobee northward to near Orlando FL during the next few hours. DISCUSSION...Latest surface observations indicate upper 70s/lower 80s surface temperatures from Lake Okeechobee northeastward toward Melbourne FL, where at least modest cloud thinning has developed. These warmer surface temperatures, coupled with upper 70s boundary-layer dewpoints gradually spreading northward should allow for surface-based convective inflow. The MLB VWP depicts modest low-level hodograph curvature owing to backed surface winds beneath strengthening south-southwesterly flow. Farther west, the VWP hodograph from TBW is much larger (500-600 m2/s2 0-1 km SRH), though buoyancy is much weaker with westward extent. From Lake Okeechobee northward to around Orlando FL, a favorable overlap of the surface-based buoyancy and large looping low-level hodographs should prove favorable for increasing tornado potential during the next few hours. This is especially the case as a broken band of low-topped supercells spread northward across this locally favorable environment (two TDSs recently observed with this activity over Okeechobee and St. Lucie Counties). ..Weinman.. 09/28/2022 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW... LAT...LON 27248117 27438141 27798167 28168177 28428161 28478133 28438105 28328083 28178072 27818049 27318034 27118048 27118089 27248117 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 PM CDT Wed Sep 28 2022 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA... ...SUMMARY... A couple of tornadoes will be possible across parts of east-central and northeast Florida Thursday morning and afternoon, in association with Tropical Cyclone Ian. ...Synopsis... An upper trough is forecast to progress across the Canadian Maritime Provinces and northeastern U.S. Thursday, before moving into the North Atlantic during the second half of the period. Meanwhile, a second trough/low is forecast to make slow eastward progress across the northwestern quarter of the CONUS. In between, ridging will prevail, though several short-wave cyclonic disturbances will progress through weak/largely westerly flow across the Plains/Canadian Prairies. At the surface, a cold front will move across the northwestern U.S. and into the Great Basin/Intermountain region, while a lee trough is maintained over the High Plains. In the East, high pressure will prevail, with the exception of the Southeast where Ian -- likely to have weakened to tropical storm status -- will be moving across central and northeastern Florida through the day, and then offshore overnight. ...Parts of central and northeastern Florida... Current forecasts from the National Hurricane Center place the center of Ian over central Florida at the start of period, with slow northeastward motion across northeastern portions of Florida through the day before moving offshore north of Melbourne by early evening. Given this location and movement, inland tornado risk will be confined largely to northeast Florida coastal counties, with the remainder of the risk offshore. As such, a small SLGT risk/5% tornado area is being maintained at this time, for areas near and north of Cape Canaveral. Risk will diminish after dark, as Ian continues to shift offshore. ..Goss.. 09/28/2022 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1124 AM CDT Wed Sep 28 2022 Valid 281630Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FL... ...SUMMARY... Tornadoes are expected this afternoon/evening, especially across east central Florida, in association with Major Hurricane Ian. ...East central FL this afternoon/evening... Major Hurricane Ian is approaching the FL Gulf coast near Fort Myers and Port Charlotte, and the storm core will continue to move northeastward across central FL through tonight (see latest NHC advisories for additional information). Visible satellite imagery reveals a zone of filtered surface heating along the Atlantic coast, to the east of the thicker clouds with the hurricane core along the Gulf coast, as discussion in MD 1841. Also, low-level flow has veered and hodographs have become less favorable for supercells across the Keys, while the stronger low-level shear/hodograph curvature will persist through the afternoon/evening across east central FL. As new convection forms in the zone of stronger surface heating, tornadoes will be possible as supercells move northward into the weak baroclinic zone across central/east central FL, with a diminished threat farther northwest and deeper into the rain-cooled air. This baroclinic zone may shift slowly northward along the Atlantic coast though early tonight, in advance of the hurricane core. ..Thompson/Weinman.. 09/28/2022 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1118 AM CDT Wed Sep 28 2022 Valid 281700Z - 291200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR CENTRAL GULF COAST... An Elevated risk area is introduced to portions of central/eastern WY where guidance has come into better agreement in the potential for sustained elevated wind/RH conditions this afternoon. RH values are already falling into the low 30s, and should fall to near 10-15% by this afternoon as winds increase to 15 mph. ...Gulf Coast... Morning surface observations are sampling near-record low dewpoint values along the Gulf Coast and into AL. Winds have increased in response to the approach of Hurricane Ian to the southeast, with gusts up to 30 mph already being reported. Critical conditions remain likely for much of the Gulf Coast and will be most prevalent for south-central AL into the western FL Panhandle. ...Southeast Oregon into Northwest Nevada... The KMAX and KRGX VWPs have shown an increase in low to mid-level winds over the past 2-3 hours as the upper wave moves ashore. Such winds will overspread the northern Sierra/southern Cascades by late afternoon, in line with the latest guidance. Elevated to locally critical conditions remain likely. ...Southern to Northern Plains... Dry conditions and receptive fuels remain prevalent across much of the Plains with RH reductions into the 20-30% expected by late afternoon for most locations. While winds will generally remain below 15 mph, a few locations may see periods of elevated fire weather conditions where winds can exceed 15 mph. This potential appears most likely across southern to central OK and through the southern Red River Valley of the north along the ND/MN border, though confidence in a more robust threat remains too limited for additional highlights. ..Moore.. 09/28/2022 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1215 AM CDT Wed Sep 28 2022/ ...Synopsis... The broad upper-level ridge will continue to shift eastward into the Plains, today. In the Northwest, an upper-level trough will move into Washington and Oregon. At the surface, a stout surface high will move into the upper Midwest. A cold front will be draped across the northern Gulf into north Florida. Hurricane Ian will continue into central Florida. ...Central Gulf Coast... The combination of the strong surface high to the north and the strong pressure gradient around Hurricane Ian will drive moderately strong northerly winds across much of the Southeast. With these areas remaining dry, fuels are receptive to fire spread. RH below 30% should occur over much of the region, particularly areas that are not impacted by high level outflow clouds from Ian. There is a corridor along/near the Gulf Coast that could see RH as low as 20%. This area is most likely to see critical fire weather as sustained winds near 15-20 mph with higher gusts probable. ...Southeast Oregon into northwest Nevada... The approach of the upper-level trough will promote a surface trough in the Columbia basin and drive moderate downslope winds of 15-20 mph. RH of 15-20% is expected. Critical conditions are possible, but will be localized and brief. ...Central/northern Plains... As a lee trough develops in the Canadian Rockies, southerly winds may increase to 15-25 mph in parts of the Dakotas into Nebraska. Fuels have become marginally drier after recent rains. However, fire weather concerns are expected to be mitigated by cooler temperatures and upper-level cloud cover. The overlap of low RH and the stronger winds is not expected to be widespread. Locally elevated to near critical conditions are possible in central Wyoming. However, fuels are generally marginal and duration of these conditions will be short-lived. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

WW 546 TORNADO FL CW 280855Z - 282100Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 546 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 455 AM EDT Wed Sep 28 2022 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Central and South Florida Coastal Waters * Effective this Wednesday morning and afternoon from 455 AM until 500 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... Several tornadoes likely SUMMARY...As Hurricane Ian continues to approach the west coast of Florida, a strong eastern-peripheral wind field and a very moist air mass will support the potential for supercells and a related tornado risk. This tornado potential will initially be focused across the southern Peninsula early today, but is likely to further increase and spread northward into the central Florida Peninsula by late morning and afternoon. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 70 statute miles east and west of a line from 45 miles southwest of Miami FL to 15 miles east northeast of Orlando FL. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 545... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 0 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 50 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 15030. ...Guyer Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Tue Sep 27 17:56:16 UTC 2022.

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Tue Sep 27 2022 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... A few tornadoes will be possible across the Florida Peninsula on Wednesday, in association with Hurricane Ian. ...Synopsis... A highly amplified upper trough will continue moving slowly eastward across eastern NOAM Wednesday, while a second trough -- initially over the northeastern Pacific -- shifts inland across southern British Columbia and the Pacific Northwest during the second half of the period. In between, ridging will prevail across the U.S. Great Plains and Canadian Prairies. At the surface, a cold front is forecast to move slowly across the Pacific Northwest, while high pressure prevails over the central and much of the eastern portions of the country. The main exception will be over the Southeast, where a quasistationary front will become more ill-defined, as Hurricane Ian shifts out of the eastern Gulf and into Florida through the end of the period. ...Florida Peninsula... While track uncertainties with respect to Ian (see the latest forecasts from the National Hurricane Center) persist, risk for a few tornadoes remains evident as the storm approaches -- and eventually moves into -- the Florida Peninsula. As low-level flow intensifies with time, shear in the eastern half of the circulation will support rotating updrafts within banded convection. As such, brief tornadoes will be possible for an extended period of time. At this time, with the storm track continuing to trend more eastward, future adjustments to northern fringes of the risk area will likely be required. ..Goss.. 09/27/2022 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1126 AM CDT Tue Sep 27 2022 Valid 271630Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS THE KEYS AND SOUTH FL INTO PARTS OF CENTRAL FL... ...SUMMARY... Tornadoes are possible across the Florida Keys and south Florida today, and may spread into parts of central Florida overnight with Hurricane Ian. ...South FL and the Keys through tonight... Major Hurricane Ian will move northward or north-northeastward through tonight across the extreme southeast Gulf of Mexico, as rain bands east-through-northeast of the center continue to overspread south FL and the Keys. Some expansion of the stronger wind field, and resultant stronger vertical shear (effective SRH of 200-400 m2/s2), will occur through tonight as Ian continues to deepen (see latest NHC advisories for additional information). Widespread rain across south FL has held surface temperatures in the mid 70s through the morning with minimal surface-based buoyancy. However, some cloud breaks and modest surface heating is underway across the Keys, and should develop slowly inland from the southeast FL coast through the afternoon. Likewise, slightly higher boundary-layer dewpoints (>76 F) will spread inland, with sufficient destabilization to support supercells moving inland. Thus, the threat for tornadoes is expected to gradually increase from south-to-north later this afternoon/evening, and persist into the overnight hours. Please see SPC MD 1833 for additional details. ..Thompson/Weinman.. 09/27/2022 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1048 AM CDT Tue Sep 27 2022 Valid 271700Z - 281200Z The forecast remains on track with only minor adjustments needed for both the Gulf Coast and southern Oregon regions. Morning water vapor imagery shows broad subsidence across the Southeast, which will maintain warm, dry conditions today as RH values continue to fall into the 20-30% range. Sustained winds near 15 mph are expected by early afternoon, and gusts up to 20-25 mph will support periods of critical fire weather conditions. Across northern CA/southern OR, GOES Derived Winds is estimating mid-level winds near 20-25 mph, which is in line with latest guidance and supports the ongoing forecast (see previous discussion below). ...Southwest to Central Oklahoma... A few surface stations are reporting elevated fire weather conditions across western OK ahead of a weak surface trough/cold front. Boundary layer winds are expected to weaken through the day across the region, which will limit the overall fire weather potential despite receptive fuels. However, periods of patchy elevated conditions are possible during the 16-21 UTC period roughly across the Altus, OK to Watonga, OK region. ..Moore.. 09/27/2022 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0126 AM CDT Tue Sep 27 2022/ ...Synopsis... An amplified pattern aloft featuring a broad trough in the east, a large ridge over the central U.S., and a shortwave trough over the Northwest will be in place today. At the surface, a trough will develop in the lee of the Cascades while a surface high will build into the upper Midwest. The approach of Hurricane Ian along the western Florida coast will strengthen the surface pressure gradient for the central Gulf Coast states. ...South-central Oregon... Afternoon winds will reach 15-20 mph as the surface trough deepens in the Columbia Basin. Some increase in high cloud cover is possible and may impact RH reductions in parts of the region. However, at least some areas of 15-20% appear possible during the afternoon. ...Central Gulf Coast Vicinity... The region will be situated in a dry, post-frontal airmass. The combinations of a building surface high to the north and the approach of Ian to the southeast should promote a modest increase in surface winds. In general, winds around 15 mph are expected with locally higher sustained speeds and gusts. Dry fuels and RH that will likely fall to near 25% or lower will support an increase in fire weather concerns during the afternoon. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

WW 544 TORNADO FL CW 271255Z - 272100Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 544 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 855 AM EDT Tue Sep 27 2022 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of South Florida Coastal Waters * Effective this Tuesday morning and afternoon from 855 AM until 500 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes possible SUMMARY...Hurricane Ian will continue to move north-northeastward and likely further intensify as per the National Hurricane Center. A very moist airmass and strengthening low-level shear will support an increasing tornado potential from the Florida Keys across the southern Peninsula through the afternoon. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 80 statute miles north and south of a line from 70 miles west northwest of Key West FL to 20 miles east southeast of Miami FL. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 0 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 14020. ...Guyer Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Mon Sep 26 2022 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA... ...SUMMARY... A few tornadoes will be possible across parts of Florida Tuesday into Tuesday night, in association with Hurricane Ian. ...Synopsis... Large-scale upper troughing will continue over eastern NOAM Tuesday, while a second low/trough over the northeastern Pacific gradually approaches the Pacific Northwest. In between, expansive ridging will extend from Texas and the Desert Southwest northward across the Rockies and into the Canadian Prairie Provinces. At the surface, a cold front will remain roughly in place from the southeastern U.S. Atlantic Coast, west-southwestward along the Gulf Coast vicinity. To the south, Hurricane Ian is progged to be shifting slowly northward into/across the eastern Gulf of Mexico through the period. Please refer to the latest forecasts regarding Ian from the National Hurricane Center. ...Florida Peninsula... As Ian moves slowly northward, the low-level flow across the Florida Peninsula south of the aforementioned cold front -- particularly across west-central and southwestern Florida -- will increase with time. Widespread convection surrounding Ian will overspread the area from south to north, with embedded cellular convection within bands surrounding the center of circulation. As the inland wind field gradually strengthens, potential for rotating cells will likewise increase, along with associated tornado potential. This risk may increase through the afternoon, and continue into the overnight hours as the storm gradually shifts northward. ..Goss.. 09/26/2022 Read more

No watches are valid as of Mon Sep 26 17:35:02 UTC 2022.

MD 1830 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF EASTERN NY...VT...AND NH
Mesoscale Discussion 1830 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1216 PM CDT Mon Sep 26 2022 Areas affected...Parts of eastern NY...VT...and NH Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 261716Z - 262015Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...The risk of strong to locally damaging gusts will increase this afternoon (around 18-22Z) as storms spread eastward from eastern NY across New England. DISCUSSION...Latest water vapor loops reveal the nose of a southwesterly mid/upper-level jet streak impinging on NY, where regional VWP data shows 40-50 kt of midlevel flow. As the left exit region of this jet streak continues overspreading eastern NY and New England -- in conjunction with strengthening DCVA downstream of the midlevel trough -- convection will gradually increase in coverage as it spreads eastward along a weak low-level confluence axis this afternoon. Within the pre-convective environment, filtered diurnal heating amid middle 50s boundary-layer dewpoints, coupled with midlevel adiabatic cooling/steepening midlevel lapse rates, will contribute to weakly unstable surface-based inflow. Deep/enhanced south-southwesterly flow will yield a long/straight hodograph (35-45 kt of effective shear), supportive of loosely organized bands or clusters of storms -- especially in the 18-22Z time frame. The primary concern with this activity will be strong to locally damaging gusts with the more organized bands/clusters, and small hail will also be possible. ..Weinman/Thompson.. 09/26/2022 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...BTV...ALY... LAT...LON 42667450 43537493 44177493 44617479 44847454 45077395 45057237 45037156 44707139 43857140 43197169 42897218 42727306 42457386 42667450 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1126 AM CDT Mon Sep 26 2022 Valid 261630Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON FROM NY INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...AND OVERNIGHT IN THE FL KEYS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated wind damage will be possible this afternoon from central/northern New York into northern New England. The potential for a tornado or two will increase by late tonight/early Tuesday across the Florida Keys in association with Hurricane Ian. ...Central/northern NY to northern New England this afternoon... Within a deep midlevel trough over the Great Lakes, an embedded speed max will eject quickly northeastward from western NY toward northern New England by late afternoon/evening. A band of ascent, coincident with a reinforcing cold frontal surge, will help focus low-topped thunderstorms early this afternoon in central/northern NY and continuing through this evening across northern New England. Weak surface-based buoyancy will result from surface heating in cloud breaks and residual boundary-layer dewpoints in the low-mid 50s, in an environment with 40-50 kt south-southwesterly midlevel flow and straight hodographs. The net result will be the potential for strong gusts and isolated wind damage with downward momentum transfer in the stronger storms this afternoon/evening. ...FL Keys tonight through early Tuesday... Hurricane Ian is expected to undergo rapid intensification and reach the western tip of Cuba as a major hurricane by early Tuesday morning (please refer to the latest updates from NHC). The deepening cyclone, expanding wind field, and increasingly banded convective structures will result in a gradual increase in the threat for supercells and a tornado or two across the Keys overnight and into Tuesday morning. ..Thompson/Weinman.. 09/26/2022 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1029 AM CDT Mon Sep 26 2022 Valid 261700Z - 271200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Fire weather concerns remain limited for today. Periodic elevated conditions remain possible across parts of eastern OK/TX and the Southeast, as well as across portions of the Midwest where winds may gust up to 30 mph with RH values near 30%. However, marginal fuel status will modulate the overall fire weather potential. ..Moore.. 09/26/2022 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1139 PM CDT Sun Sep 25 2022/ ...Synopsis... A fairly amplified upper-level pattern will exist across the CONUS today. Large-scale ridging in the west will slowly shift eastward as a broad trough in the east makes similar eastward progress. At the surface, the cold front will move offshore into the Gulf and the Atlantic. A dry airmass will reside within much of the central and western U.S. A diminishing surface pressure gradient will lead to weak winds over a broad area. However, locally elevated conditions are possible. The most likely areas for these conditions will be eastern OK/TX into parts of the Southeast. Rainfall has been minimal, particularly in OK/TX, and fuels will support fire spread. RH of 20-30% is possible, though winds may struggle to reach 15 mph. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

WW 0543 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 543 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 W SHD TO 5 N HGR TO 30 WSW ABE. ..MOSIER..09/25/22 ATTN...WFO...LWX...CTP... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 543 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS DCC001-251940- DC . DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA MDC003-005-009-013-015-017-021-025-027-031-033-037-510-251940- MD . MARYLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANNE ARUNDEL BALTIMORE CALVERT CARROLL CECIL CHARLES FREDERICK HARFORD HOWARD MONTGOMERY PRINCE GEORGES ST. MARYS MARYLAND INDEPENDENT CITIES INCLUDED ARE BALTIMORE CITY Read more

WW 543 SEVERE TSTM DC MD PA VA WV CW 251540Z - 252300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 543 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1140 AM EDT Sun Sep 25 2022 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of District Of Columbia Maryland South central Pennsylvania Northern Virginia The eastern West Virginia Panhandle Coastal Waters * Effective this Sunday morning and evening from 1140 AM until 700 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms will likely persist through the afternoon, with some additional storm development expected. The storm environment favors a mix of supercells and line segments with attendant threats of damaging winds and large hail. An isolated tornado or two may also occur. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles east and west of a line from 15 miles north northwest of Harrisburg PA to 40 miles east of Staunton VA. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm motion vector 27045. ...Thompson Read more

WW 543 SEVERE TSTM DC MD PA VA WV CW 251540Z - 252300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 543 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1140 AM EDT Sun Sep 25 2022 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of District Of Columbia Maryland South central Pennsylvania Northern Virginia The eastern West Virginia Panhandle Coastal Waters * Effective this Sunday morning and evening from 1140 AM until 700 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms will likely persist through the afternoon, with some additional storm development expected. The storm environment favors a mix of supercells and line segments with attendant threats of damaging winds and large hail. An isolated tornado or two may also occur. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles east and west of a line from 15 miles north northwest of Harrisburg PA to 40 miles east of Staunton VA. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm motion vector 27045. ...Thompson Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1200 PM CDT Sun Sep 25 2022 Valid 251700Z - 261200Z Expanded the Elevated delineation farther west across South Dakota and south into Nebraska based on morning high resolution guidance. Elsewhere, the forecast appears on track and no additional changes were needed. See previous discussion below. ..Bentley.. 09/25/2022 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1144 PM CDT Sat Sep 24 2022/ ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough will intensify across the Great Lakes region into the Mid-Atlantic. In the West, ridging aloft will amplify while slowly shifting east. At the surface, A cold front will continue southward through the southern Plains while moving off the east coast during the evening. Elevated fire weather is expected within portions of the Plains as relatively dry and gusty northerly/northwesterly winds develop during the day/afternoon. Winds will be strongest in parts of the Dakotas into eastern Nebraska, with diminishing strength farther south into Oklahoma. RH of around 20-25% appears likely be afternoon along with wind speeds of 15-25 mph. While these conditions could extend from the northern Plains into the southern Plains, recent precipitation in many areas has reduced fuel dryness. The areas of greatest concern will be in central/eastern South Dakota, far northern Nebraska, and central/southern Oklahoma. Elsewhere, locally elevated conditions may still occur. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more