Severe Storms

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0257 PM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025 Valid 142000Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the northern Plains as well as the Mid-Atlantic States this afternoon into tonight. Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across the East, Mid-South, southeast Arizona, and Florida. ...20z Update... The previous outlook remains on track and no significant changes were made with this update. Towering cumulus/initial storm development is underway across the higher terrain of WY and, as remaining CINH as shown on the 18z Rapid City Sounding is removed via diurnal heating, additional development is expected in the vicinity of the Black Hills. Storms should tend to evolve into clusters/line segments while moving east this afternoon and evening. Very steep low- and mid-level lapse rates and dry low levels above the boundary layer will result in a damaging wind risk, and an isolated potential for severe hail with isolated stronger storms. Across the mid-Atlantic, thunderstorms continue to develop and move east within a very moist/moderately unstable air mass. Please refer to Mesoscale Convective Discussion 1668 for the latest short-term thinking regarding convective evolution in this area. ..Bunting.. 07/14/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1135 AM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025/ ...Mid-Atlantic into the Northeast... A belt of stronger mid-level flow extends from the north-central CONUS/south-central Canadian Prairies through the Northeast, with some modest cyclonic curvature. A more defined shortwave trough is currently progressing into the Upper OH Valley/central Appalachians, along the southern periphery of the belt of stronger, broadly cyclonic flow. Showers and isolated thunderstorms are currently ongoing just ahead of this shortwave. Expectation is for this shortwave trough to continue eastward/northeastward throughout the day, with the modest upper troughing farther north shifting eastward as well. A reservoir of ample low-level moisture (i.e. dewpoints in the low to mid 70s) is in place ahead of this shortwave. This low-level moisture will support airmass destabilization and moderate buoyancy this afternoon despite widespread cloudiness and tempered daytime heating. Thunderstorm development is anticipated as large-scale ascent attendant to the approaching shortwave (and larger upper trough) moves into the region. Additionally, recent surface analysis places a trough axis from the northern NY/VT border southwestward through central PA. Low-level convergence along this axis could augment the large-scale ascent. All of these factors will act to support scattered to numerous thunderstorms this afternoon. While mid-level flow and related deep-layer shear are both expected to remain fairly modest, some of this convection could congeal into multiple loosely organized clusters. Steepened low-level lapse rates and water loaded downdrafts could support isolated strong to damaging winds as thunderstorms spread generally eastward through the afternoon and evening. Highest thunderstorm coverage and greatest relative chance for damaging gusts is expected from eastern PA through central VA. ...Northern Plains to Northern Minnesota... Satellite imagery shows a vorticity maximum drifting slowly across the central Intermountain West. Large-scale ascent attendant to this vorticity maximum will augment low-level convergence along a sharpening lee trough, likely resulting in enough lift to promote thunderstorm development across eastern WY during the late afternoon. This area is on the southern periphery of a belt of stronger westerlies, and there appears to be just enough westerly flow aloft for updraft organization and persistence into the better moisture and buoyancy farther east. As such, there is a risk for strong to severe gusts within this deeply mixed airmass throughout the afternoon and evening. Thunderstorm development also appears possible along a surface trough that arcs from western MT to a low in southwest SD. A conditional severe risk exists with any storms that develop near the surface low over ND this afternoon, but the greater thunderstorm coverage is anticipated later this evening and overnight as warm-air advection across the frontal zone strengthens. Elevated thunderstorms are also expected tonight as an upper trough overspreads the northern Rockies. Given ample shear and buoyancy, isolated hail is possible in both of these regions tonight. ...Eastern GA into the FL Peninsula... Ample low-level moisture and robust diurnal heating will result in strong buoyancy from eastern GA southward across the entire FL Peninsula this afternoon. A modest cyclone drifting westward towards the GA/FL coast will interact with this airmass, contributing to widespread thunderstorm development this afternoon. Convection should develop along/near the Atlantic Coast before spreading south-southwestward and inland across much of the FL Peninsula this afternoon/evening. Several clusters capable of producing isolated strong to severe winds are possible. ...AZ... High pressure over the southern Great Basin will contribute to around 20-25 kt of northeasterly mid-level flow across southern AZ this afternoon. This mid-level flow will take storms that develop across the higher terrain southwestward into the deeply mixed boundary layer over southeast AZ. A few strong to severe gusts are possible, but overall coverage will likely be sparse. ...South-Central/Southeast TX into the Mid-South... A trio of MCVs is apparent on radar and satellite imagery this morning. One is centered over Real and Uvalde Counties in the TX Hill Country, with another over Denton and Collin Counties in north TX, and the third farther north over northeast AR. At least scattered thunderstorms are possible this afternoon/evening with each of these MCVs as they progress eastward/northeastward. Vertical shear will be weak, but discrete storm propagation along the stronger outflows could result in occasionally strong/damaging downbursts. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0257 PM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025 Valid 142000Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the northern Plains as well as the Mid-Atlantic States this afternoon into tonight. Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across the East, Mid-South, southeast Arizona, and Florida. ...20z Update... The previous outlook remains on track and no significant changes were made with this update. Towering cumulus/initial storm development is underway across the higher terrain of WY and, as remaining CINH as shown on the 18z Rapid City Sounding is removed via diurnal heating, additional development is expected in the vicinity of the Black Hills. Storms should tend to evolve into clusters/line segments while moving east this afternoon and evening. Very steep low- and mid-level lapse rates and dry low levels above the boundary layer will result in a damaging wind risk, and an isolated potential for severe hail with isolated stronger storms. Across the mid-Atlantic, thunderstorms continue to develop and move east within a very moist/moderately unstable air mass. Please refer to Mesoscale Convective Discussion 1668 for the latest short-term thinking regarding convective evolution in this area. ..Bunting.. 07/14/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1135 AM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025/ ...Mid-Atlantic into the Northeast... A belt of stronger mid-level flow extends from the north-central CONUS/south-central Canadian Prairies through the Northeast, with some modest cyclonic curvature. A more defined shortwave trough is currently progressing into the Upper OH Valley/central Appalachians, along the southern periphery of the belt of stronger, broadly cyclonic flow. Showers and isolated thunderstorms are currently ongoing just ahead of this shortwave. Expectation is for this shortwave trough to continue eastward/northeastward throughout the day, with the modest upper troughing farther north shifting eastward as well. A reservoir of ample low-level moisture (i.e. dewpoints in the low to mid 70s) is in place ahead of this shortwave. This low-level moisture will support airmass destabilization and moderate buoyancy this afternoon despite widespread cloudiness and tempered daytime heating. Thunderstorm development is anticipated as large-scale ascent attendant to the approaching shortwave (and larger upper trough) moves into the region. Additionally, recent surface analysis places a trough axis from the northern NY/VT border southwestward through central PA. Low-level convergence along this axis could augment the large-scale ascent. All of these factors will act to support scattered to numerous thunderstorms this afternoon. While mid-level flow and related deep-layer shear are both expected to remain fairly modest, some of this convection could congeal into multiple loosely organized clusters. Steepened low-level lapse rates and water loaded downdrafts could support isolated strong to damaging winds as thunderstorms spread generally eastward through the afternoon and evening. Highest thunderstorm coverage and greatest relative chance for damaging gusts is expected from eastern PA through central VA. ...Northern Plains to Northern Minnesota... Satellite imagery shows a vorticity maximum drifting slowly across the central Intermountain West. Large-scale ascent attendant to this vorticity maximum will augment low-level convergence along a sharpening lee trough, likely resulting in enough lift to promote thunderstorm development across eastern WY during the late afternoon. This area is on the southern periphery of a belt of stronger westerlies, and there appears to be just enough westerly flow aloft for updraft organization and persistence into the better moisture and buoyancy farther east. As such, there is a risk for strong to severe gusts within this deeply mixed airmass throughout the afternoon and evening. Thunderstorm development also appears possible along a surface trough that arcs from western MT to a low in southwest SD. A conditional severe risk exists with any storms that develop near the surface low over ND this afternoon, but the greater thunderstorm coverage is anticipated later this evening and overnight as warm-air advection across the frontal zone strengthens. Elevated thunderstorms are also expected tonight as an upper trough overspreads the northern Rockies. Given ample shear and buoyancy, isolated hail is possible in both of these regions tonight. ...Eastern GA into the FL Peninsula... Ample low-level moisture and robust diurnal heating will result in strong buoyancy from eastern GA southward across the entire FL Peninsula this afternoon. A modest cyclone drifting westward towards the GA/FL coast will interact with this airmass, contributing to widespread thunderstorm development this afternoon. Convection should develop along/near the Atlantic Coast before spreading south-southwestward and inland across much of the FL Peninsula this afternoon/evening. Several clusters capable of producing isolated strong to severe winds are possible. ...AZ... High pressure over the southern Great Basin will contribute to around 20-25 kt of northeasterly mid-level flow across southern AZ this afternoon. This mid-level flow will take storms that develop across the higher terrain southwestward into the deeply mixed boundary layer over southeast AZ. A few strong to severe gusts are possible, but overall coverage will likely be sparse. ...South-Central/Southeast TX into the Mid-South... A trio of MCVs is apparent on radar and satellite imagery this morning. One is centered over Real and Uvalde Counties in the TX Hill Country, with another over Denton and Collin Counties in north TX, and the third farther north over northeast AR. At least scattered thunderstorms are possible this afternoon/evening with each of these MCVs as they progress eastward/northeastward. Vertical shear will be weak, but discrete storm propagation along the stronger outflows could result in occasionally strong/damaging downbursts. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0257 PM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025 Valid 142000Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the northern Plains as well as the Mid-Atlantic States this afternoon into tonight. Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across the East, Mid-South, southeast Arizona, and Florida. ...20z Update... The previous outlook remains on track and no significant changes were made with this update. Towering cumulus/initial storm development is underway across the higher terrain of WY and, as remaining CINH as shown on the 18z Rapid City Sounding is removed via diurnal heating, additional development is expected in the vicinity of the Black Hills. Storms should tend to evolve into clusters/line segments while moving east this afternoon and evening. Very steep low- and mid-level lapse rates and dry low levels above the boundary layer will result in a damaging wind risk, and an isolated potential for severe hail with isolated stronger storms. Across the mid-Atlantic, thunderstorms continue to develop and move east within a very moist/moderately unstable air mass. Please refer to Mesoscale Convective Discussion 1668 for the latest short-term thinking regarding convective evolution in this area. ..Bunting.. 07/14/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1135 AM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025/ ...Mid-Atlantic into the Northeast... A belt of stronger mid-level flow extends from the north-central CONUS/south-central Canadian Prairies through the Northeast, with some modest cyclonic curvature. A more defined shortwave trough is currently progressing into the Upper OH Valley/central Appalachians, along the southern periphery of the belt of stronger, broadly cyclonic flow. Showers and isolated thunderstorms are currently ongoing just ahead of this shortwave. Expectation is for this shortwave trough to continue eastward/northeastward throughout the day, with the modest upper troughing farther north shifting eastward as well. A reservoir of ample low-level moisture (i.e. dewpoints in the low to mid 70s) is in place ahead of this shortwave. This low-level moisture will support airmass destabilization and moderate buoyancy this afternoon despite widespread cloudiness and tempered daytime heating. Thunderstorm development is anticipated as large-scale ascent attendant to the approaching shortwave (and larger upper trough) moves into the region. Additionally, recent surface analysis places a trough axis from the northern NY/VT border southwestward through central PA. Low-level convergence along this axis could augment the large-scale ascent. All of these factors will act to support scattered to numerous thunderstorms this afternoon. While mid-level flow and related deep-layer shear are both expected to remain fairly modest, some of this convection could congeal into multiple loosely organized clusters. Steepened low-level lapse rates and water loaded downdrafts could support isolated strong to damaging winds as thunderstorms spread generally eastward through the afternoon and evening. Highest thunderstorm coverage and greatest relative chance for damaging gusts is expected from eastern PA through central VA. ...Northern Plains to Northern Minnesota... Satellite imagery shows a vorticity maximum drifting slowly across the central Intermountain West. Large-scale ascent attendant to this vorticity maximum will augment low-level convergence along a sharpening lee trough, likely resulting in enough lift to promote thunderstorm development across eastern WY during the late afternoon. This area is on the southern periphery of a belt of stronger westerlies, and there appears to be just enough westerly flow aloft for updraft organization and persistence into the better moisture and buoyancy farther east. As such, there is a risk for strong to severe gusts within this deeply mixed airmass throughout the afternoon and evening. Thunderstorm development also appears possible along a surface trough that arcs from western MT to a low in southwest SD. A conditional severe risk exists with any storms that develop near the surface low over ND this afternoon, but the greater thunderstorm coverage is anticipated later this evening and overnight as warm-air advection across the frontal zone strengthens. Elevated thunderstorms are also expected tonight as an upper trough overspreads the northern Rockies. Given ample shear and buoyancy, isolated hail is possible in both of these regions tonight. ...Eastern GA into the FL Peninsula... Ample low-level moisture and robust diurnal heating will result in strong buoyancy from eastern GA southward across the entire FL Peninsula this afternoon. A modest cyclone drifting westward towards the GA/FL coast will interact with this airmass, contributing to widespread thunderstorm development this afternoon. Convection should develop along/near the Atlantic Coast before spreading south-southwestward and inland across much of the FL Peninsula this afternoon/evening. Several clusters capable of producing isolated strong to severe winds are possible. ...AZ... High pressure over the southern Great Basin will contribute to around 20-25 kt of northeasterly mid-level flow across southern AZ this afternoon. This mid-level flow will take storms that develop across the higher terrain southwestward into the deeply mixed boundary layer over southeast AZ. A few strong to severe gusts are possible, but overall coverage will likely be sparse. ...South-Central/Southeast TX into the Mid-South... A trio of MCVs is apparent on radar and satellite imagery this morning. One is centered over Real and Uvalde Counties in the TX Hill Country, with another over Denton and Collin Counties in north TX, and the third farther north over northeast AR. At least scattered thunderstorms are possible this afternoon/evening with each of these MCVs as they progress eastward/northeastward. Vertical shear will be weak, but discrete storm propagation along the stronger outflows could result in occasionally strong/damaging downbursts. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0257 PM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025 Valid 142000Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the northern Plains as well as the Mid-Atlantic States this afternoon into tonight. Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across the East, Mid-South, southeast Arizona, and Florida. ...20z Update... The previous outlook remains on track and no significant changes were made with this update. Towering cumulus/initial storm development is underway across the higher terrain of WY and, as remaining CINH as shown on the 18z Rapid City Sounding is removed via diurnal heating, additional development is expected in the vicinity of the Black Hills. Storms should tend to evolve into clusters/line segments while moving east this afternoon and evening. Very steep low- and mid-level lapse rates and dry low levels above the boundary layer will result in a damaging wind risk, and an isolated potential for severe hail with isolated stronger storms. Across the mid-Atlantic, thunderstorms continue to develop and move east within a very moist/moderately unstable air mass. Please refer to Mesoscale Convective Discussion 1668 for the latest short-term thinking regarding convective evolution in this area. ..Bunting.. 07/14/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1135 AM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025/ ...Mid-Atlantic into the Northeast... A belt of stronger mid-level flow extends from the north-central CONUS/south-central Canadian Prairies through the Northeast, with some modest cyclonic curvature. A more defined shortwave trough is currently progressing into the Upper OH Valley/central Appalachians, along the southern periphery of the belt of stronger, broadly cyclonic flow. Showers and isolated thunderstorms are currently ongoing just ahead of this shortwave. Expectation is for this shortwave trough to continue eastward/northeastward throughout the day, with the modest upper troughing farther north shifting eastward as well. A reservoir of ample low-level moisture (i.e. dewpoints in the low to mid 70s) is in place ahead of this shortwave. This low-level moisture will support airmass destabilization and moderate buoyancy this afternoon despite widespread cloudiness and tempered daytime heating. Thunderstorm development is anticipated as large-scale ascent attendant to the approaching shortwave (and larger upper trough) moves into the region. Additionally, recent surface analysis places a trough axis from the northern NY/VT border southwestward through central PA. Low-level convergence along this axis could augment the large-scale ascent. All of these factors will act to support scattered to numerous thunderstorms this afternoon. While mid-level flow and related deep-layer shear are both expected to remain fairly modest, some of this convection could congeal into multiple loosely organized clusters. Steepened low-level lapse rates and water loaded downdrafts could support isolated strong to damaging winds as thunderstorms spread generally eastward through the afternoon and evening. Highest thunderstorm coverage and greatest relative chance for damaging gusts is expected from eastern PA through central VA. ...Northern Plains to Northern Minnesota... Satellite imagery shows a vorticity maximum drifting slowly across the central Intermountain West. Large-scale ascent attendant to this vorticity maximum will augment low-level convergence along a sharpening lee trough, likely resulting in enough lift to promote thunderstorm development across eastern WY during the late afternoon. This area is on the southern periphery of a belt of stronger westerlies, and there appears to be just enough westerly flow aloft for updraft organization and persistence into the better moisture and buoyancy farther east. As such, there is a risk for strong to severe gusts within this deeply mixed airmass throughout the afternoon and evening. Thunderstorm development also appears possible along a surface trough that arcs from western MT to a low in southwest SD. A conditional severe risk exists with any storms that develop near the surface low over ND this afternoon, but the greater thunderstorm coverage is anticipated later this evening and overnight as warm-air advection across the frontal zone strengthens. Elevated thunderstorms are also expected tonight as an upper trough overspreads the northern Rockies. Given ample shear and buoyancy, isolated hail is possible in both of these regions tonight. ...Eastern GA into the FL Peninsula... Ample low-level moisture and robust diurnal heating will result in strong buoyancy from eastern GA southward across the entire FL Peninsula this afternoon. A modest cyclone drifting westward towards the GA/FL coast will interact with this airmass, contributing to widespread thunderstorm development this afternoon. Convection should develop along/near the Atlantic Coast before spreading south-southwestward and inland across much of the FL Peninsula this afternoon/evening. Several clusters capable of producing isolated strong to severe winds are possible. ...AZ... High pressure over the southern Great Basin will contribute to around 20-25 kt of northeasterly mid-level flow across southern AZ this afternoon. This mid-level flow will take storms that develop across the higher terrain southwestward into the deeply mixed boundary layer over southeast AZ. A few strong to severe gusts are possible, but overall coverage will likely be sparse. ...South-Central/Southeast TX into the Mid-South... A trio of MCVs is apparent on radar and satellite imagery this morning. One is centered over Real and Uvalde Counties in the TX Hill Country, with another over Denton and Collin Counties in north TX, and the third farther north over northeast AR. At least scattered thunderstorms are possible this afternoon/evening with each of these MCVs as they progress eastward/northeastward. Vertical shear will be weak, but discrete storm propagation along the stronger outflows could result in occasionally strong/damaging downbursts. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0257 PM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025 Valid 142000Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the northern Plains as well as the Mid-Atlantic States this afternoon into tonight. Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across the East, Mid-South, southeast Arizona, and Florida. ...20z Update... The previous outlook remains on track and no significant changes were made with this update. Towering cumulus/initial storm development is underway across the higher terrain of WY and, as remaining CINH as shown on the 18z Rapid City Sounding is removed via diurnal heating, additional development is expected in the vicinity of the Black Hills. Storms should tend to evolve into clusters/line segments while moving east this afternoon and evening. Very steep low- and mid-level lapse rates and dry low levels above the boundary layer will result in a damaging wind risk, and an isolated potential for severe hail with isolated stronger storms. Across the mid-Atlantic, thunderstorms continue to develop and move east within a very moist/moderately unstable air mass. Please refer to Mesoscale Convective Discussion 1668 for the latest short-term thinking regarding convective evolution in this area. ..Bunting.. 07/14/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1135 AM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025/ ...Mid-Atlantic into the Northeast... A belt of stronger mid-level flow extends from the north-central CONUS/south-central Canadian Prairies through the Northeast, with some modest cyclonic curvature. A more defined shortwave trough is currently progressing into the Upper OH Valley/central Appalachians, along the southern periphery of the belt of stronger, broadly cyclonic flow. Showers and isolated thunderstorms are currently ongoing just ahead of this shortwave. Expectation is for this shortwave trough to continue eastward/northeastward throughout the day, with the modest upper troughing farther north shifting eastward as well. A reservoir of ample low-level moisture (i.e. dewpoints in the low to mid 70s) is in place ahead of this shortwave. This low-level moisture will support airmass destabilization and moderate buoyancy this afternoon despite widespread cloudiness and tempered daytime heating. Thunderstorm development is anticipated as large-scale ascent attendant to the approaching shortwave (and larger upper trough) moves into the region. Additionally, recent surface analysis places a trough axis from the northern NY/VT border southwestward through central PA. Low-level convergence along this axis could augment the large-scale ascent. All of these factors will act to support scattered to numerous thunderstorms this afternoon. While mid-level flow and related deep-layer shear are both expected to remain fairly modest, some of this convection could congeal into multiple loosely organized clusters. Steepened low-level lapse rates and water loaded downdrafts could support isolated strong to damaging winds as thunderstorms spread generally eastward through the afternoon and evening. Highest thunderstorm coverage and greatest relative chance for damaging gusts is expected from eastern PA through central VA. ...Northern Plains to Northern Minnesota... Satellite imagery shows a vorticity maximum drifting slowly across the central Intermountain West. Large-scale ascent attendant to this vorticity maximum will augment low-level convergence along a sharpening lee trough, likely resulting in enough lift to promote thunderstorm development across eastern WY during the late afternoon. This area is on the southern periphery of a belt of stronger westerlies, and there appears to be just enough westerly flow aloft for updraft organization and persistence into the better moisture and buoyancy farther east. As such, there is a risk for strong to severe gusts within this deeply mixed airmass throughout the afternoon and evening. Thunderstorm development also appears possible along a surface trough that arcs from western MT to a low in southwest SD. A conditional severe risk exists with any storms that develop near the surface low over ND this afternoon, but the greater thunderstorm coverage is anticipated later this evening and overnight as warm-air advection across the frontal zone strengthens. Elevated thunderstorms are also expected tonight as an upper trough overspreads the northern Rockies. Given ample shear and buoyancy, isolated hail is possible in both of these regions tonight. ...Eastern GA into the FL Peninsula... Ample low-level moisture and robust diurnal heating will result in strong buoyancy from eastern GA southward across the entire FL Peninsula this afternoon. A modest cyclone drifting westward towards the GA/FL coast will interact with this airmass, contributing to widespread thunderstorm development this afternoon. Convection should develop along/near the Atlantic Coast before spreading south-southwestward and inland across much of the FL Peninsula this afternoon/evening. Several clusters capable of producing isolated strong to severe winds are possible. ...AZ... High pressure over the southern Great Basin will contribute to around 20-25 kt of northeasterly mid-level flow across southern AZ this afternoon. This mid-level flow will take storms that develop across the higher terrain southwestward into the deeply mixed boundary layer over southeast AZ. A few strong to severe gusts are possible, but overall coverage will likely be sparse. ...South-Central/Southeast TX into the Mid-South... A trio of MCVs is apparent on radar and satellite imagery this morning. One is centered over Real and Uvalde Counties in the TX Hill Country, with another over Denton and Collin Counties in north TX, and the third farther north over northeast AR. At least scattered thunderstorms are possible this afternoon/evening with each of these MCVs as they progress eastward/northeastward. Vertical shear will be weak, but discrete storm propagation along the stronger outflows could result in occasionally strong/damaging downbursts. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0257 PM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025 Valid 142000Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the northern Plains as well as the Mid-Atlantic States this afternoon into tonight. Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across the East, Mid-South, southeast Arizona, and Florida. ...20z Update... The previous outlook remains on track and no significant changes were made with this update. Towering cumulus/initial storm development is underway across the higher terrain of WY and, as remaining CINH as shown on the 18z Rapid City Sounding is removed via diurnal heating, additional development is expected in the vicinity of the Black Hills. Storms should tend to evolve into clusters/line segments while moving east this afternoon and evening. Very steep low- and mid-level lapse rates and dry low levels above the boundary layer will result in a damaging wind risk, and an isolated potential for severe hail with isolated stronger storms. Across the mid-Atlantic, thunderstorms continue to develop and move east within a very moist/moderately unstable air mass. Please refer to Mesoscale Convective Discussion 1668 for the latest short-term thinking regarding convective evolution in this area. ..Bunting.. 07/14/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1135 AM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025/ ...Mid-Atlantic into the Northeast... A belt of stronger mid-level flow extends from the north-central CONUS/south-central Canadian Prairies through the Northeast, with some modest cyclonic curvature. A more defined shortwave trough is currently progressing into the Upper OH Valley/central Appalachians, along the southern periphery of the belt of stronger, broadly cyclonic flow. Showers and isolated thunderstorms are currently ongoing just ahead of this shortwave. Expectation is for this shortwave trough to continue eastward/northeastward throughout the day, with the modest upper troughing farther north shifting eastward as well. A reservoir of ample low-level moisture (i.e. dewpoints in the low to mid 70s) is in place ahead of this shortwave. This low-level moisture will support airmass destabilization and moderate buoyancy this afternoon despite widespread cloudiness and tempered daytime heating. Thunderstorm development is anticipated as large-scale ascent attendant to the approaching shortwave (and larger upper trough) moves into the region. Additionally, recent surface analysis places a trough axis from the northern NY/VT border southwestward through central PA. Low-level convergence along this axis could augment the large-scale ascent. All of these factors will act to support scattered to numerous thunderstorms this afternoon. While mid-level flow and related deep-layer shear are both expected to remain fairly modest, some of this convection could congeal into multiple loosely organized clusters. Steepened low-level lapse rates and water loaded downdrafts could support isolated strong to damaging winds as thunderstorms spread generally eastward through the afternoon and evening. Highest thunderstorm coverage and greatest relative chance for damaging gusts is expected from eastern PA through central VA. ...Northern Plains to Northern Minnesota... Satellite imagery shows a vorticity maximum drifting slowly across the central Intermountain West. Large-scale ascent attendant to this vorticity maximum will augment low-level convergence along a sharpening lee trough, likely resulting in enough lift to promote thunderstorm development across eastern WY during the late afternoon. This area is on the southern periphery of a belt of stronger westerlies, and there appears to be just enough westerly flow aloft for updraft organization and persistence into the better moisture and buoyancy farther east. As such, there is a risk for strong to severe gusts within this deeply mixed airmass throughout the afternoon and evening. Thunderstorm development also appears possible along a surface trough that arcs from western MT to a low in southwest SD. A conditional severe risk exists with any storms that develop near the surface low over ND this afternoon, but the greater thunderstorm coverage is anticipated later this evening and overnight as warm-air advection across the frontal zone strengthens. Elevated thunderstorms are also expected tonight as an upper trough overspreads the northern Rockies. Given ample shear and buoyancy, isolated hail is possible in both of these regions tonight. ...Eastern GA into the FL Peninsula... Ample low-level moisture and robust diurnal heating will result in strong buoyancy from eastern GA southward across the entire FL Peninsula this afternoon. A modest cyclone drifting westward towards the GA/FL coast will interact with this airmass, contributing to widespread thunderstorm development this afternoon. Convection should develop along/near the Atlantic Coast before spreading south-southwestward and inland across much of the FL Peninsula this afternoon/evening. Several clusters capable of producing isolated strong to severe winds are possible. ...AZ... High pressure over the southern Great Basin will contribute to around 20-25 kt of northeasterly mid-level flow across southern AZ this afternoon. This mid-level flow will take storms that develop across the higher terrain southwestward into the deeply mixed boundary layer over southeast AZ. A few strong to severe gusts are possible, but overall coverage will likely be sparse. ...South-Central/Southeast TX into the Mid-South... A trio of MCVs is apparent on radar and satellite imagery this morning. One is centered over Real and Uvalde Counties in the TX Hill Country, with another over Denton and Collin Counties in north TX, and the third farther north over northeast AR. At least scattered thunderstorms are possible this afternoon/evening with each of these MCVs as they progress eastward/northeastward. Vertical shear will be weak, but discrete storm propagation along the stronger outflows could result in occasionally strong/damaging downbursts. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0257 PM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025 Valid 142000Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the northern Plains as well as the Mid-Atlantic States this afternoon into tonight. Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across the East, Mid-South, southeast Arizona, and Florida. ...20z Update... The previous outlook remains on track and no significant changes were made with this update. Towering cumulus/initial storm development is underway across the higher terrain of WY and, as remaining CINH as shown on the 18z Rapid City Sounding is removed via diurnal heating, additional development is expected in the vicinity of the Black Hills. Storms should tend to evolve into clusters/line segments while moving east this afternoon and evening. Very steep low- and mid-level lapse rates and dry low levels above the boundary layer will result in a damaging wind risk, and an isolated potential for severe hail with isolated stronger storms. Across the mid-Atlantic, thunderstorms continue to develop and move east within a very moist/moderately unstable air mass. Please refer to Mesoscale Convective Discussion 1668 for the latest short-term thinking regarding convective evolution in this area. ..Bunting.. 07/14/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1135 AM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025/ ...Mid-Atlantic into the Northeast... A belt of stronger mid-level flow extends from the north-central CONUS/south-central Canadian Prairies through the Northeast, with some modest cyclonic curvature. A more defined shortwave trough is currently progressing into the Upper OH Valley/central Appalachians, along the southern periphery of the belt of stronger, broadly cyclonic flow. Showers and isolated thunderstorms are currently ongoing just ahead of this shortwave. Expectation is for this shortwave trough to continue eastward/northeastward throughout the day, with the modest upper troughing farther north shifting eastward as well. A reservoir of ample low-level moisture (i.e. dewpoints in the low to mid 70s) is in place ahead of this shortwave. This low-level moisture will support airmass destabilization and moderate buoyancy this afternoon despite widespread cloudiness and tempered daytime heating. Thunderstorm development is anticipated as large-scale ascent attendant to the approaching shortwave (and larger upper trough) moves into the region. Additionally, recent surface analysis places a trough axis from the northern NY/VT border southwestward through central PA. Low-level convergence along this axis could augment the large-scale ascent. All of these factors will act to support scattered to numerous thunderstorms this afternoon. While mid-level flow and related deep-layer shear are both expected to remain fairly modest, some of this convection could congeal into multiple loosely organized clusters. Steepened low-level lapse rates and water loaded downdrafts could support isolated strong to damaging winds as thunderstorms spread generally eastward through the afternoon and evening. Highest thunderstorm coverage and greatest relative chance for damaging gusts is expected from eastern PA through central VA. ...Northern Plains to Northern Minnesota... Satellite imagery shows a vorticity maximum drifting slowly across the central Intermountain West. Large-scale ascent attendant to this vorticity maximum will augment low-level convergence along a sharpening lee trough, likely resulting in enough lift to promote thunderstorm development across eastern WY during the late afternoon. This area is on the southern periphery of a belt of stronger westerlies, and there appears to be just enough westerly flow aloft for updraft organization and persistence into the better moisture and buoyancy farther east. As such, there is a risk for strong to severe gusts within this deeply mixed airmass throughout the afternoon and evening. Thunderstorm development also appears possible along a surface trough that arcs from western MT to a low in southwest SD. A conditional severe risk exists with any storms that develop near the surface low over ND this afternoon, but the greater thunderstorm coverage is anticipated later this evening and overnight as warm-air advection across the frontal zone strengthens. Elevated thunderstorms are also expected tonight as an upper trough overspreads the northern Rockies. Given ample shear and buoyancy, isolated hail is possible in both of these regions tonight. ...Eastern GA into the FL Peninsula... Ample low-level moisture and robust diurnal heating will result in strong buoyancy from eastern GA southward across the entire FL Peninsula this afternoon. A modest cyclone drifting westward towards the GA/FL coast will interact with this airmass, contributing to widespread thunderstorm development this afternoon. Convection should develop along/near the Atlantic Coast before spreading south-southwestward and inland across much of the FL Peninsula this afternoon/evening. Several clusters capable of producing isolated strong to severe winds are possible. ...AZ... High pressure over the southern Great Basin will contribute to around 20-25 kt of northeasterly mid-level flow across southern AZ this afternoon. This mid-level flow will take storms that develop across the higher terrain southwestward into the deeply mixed boundary layer over southeast AZ. A few strong to severe gusts are possible, but overall coverage will likely be sparse. ...South-Central/Southeast TX into the Mid-South... A trio of MCVs is apparent on radar and satellite imagery this morning. One is centered over Real and Uvalde Counties in the TX Hill Country, with another over Denton and Collin Counties in north TX, and the third farther north over northeast AR. At least scattered thunderstorms are possible this afternoon/evening with each of these MCVs as they progress eastward/northeastward. Vertical shear will be weak, but discrete storm propagation along the stronger outflows could result in occasionally strong/damaging downbursts. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0256 PM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEVADA INTO WESTERN UTAH AND NORTHERN ARIZONA... ...Dry Thunderstorms... An expansive area of isolated dry thunderstorms across the was maintained for this update, with only slight northward adjustments to highlights into north central Nevada as well as southeastern ID and far western WY given latest model guidance consensus. An advancing mid-level trough into the northwest and attendant increased mid-level flow will support faster thunderstorm motions particularly across central and northeastern NV Tuesday, with northeast trajectories of 20-30 mph. This will limit rainfall residence time and increase lightning ignition efficiency over dry fuels. ...Great Basin... Enhanced westerly flow over western Nevada associated with the an encroaching mid-level trough over a deeply mixed boundary layer will promote west winds approaching 20 mph across northwestern NV. Relative humidity combined with higher winds will support an elevated fire weather threat amid dry fuels. Higher winds under a similarly dry boundary layer will bring critical fire weather conditions to portions of eastern NV, southwestern UT and the Arizona Strip. ..Williams.. 07/14/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0144 AM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025/ ...Synopsis... A deepening mid-level wave will bring an increase in winds and potential for dry thunderstorms across the Great Basin on Tuesday. Elevated to Critical conditions can be expected in portions of eastern Nevada, western Utah, northern Arizona and southern Idaho. ...Eastern Nevada, western Utah, northern Arizona... Increasing southwesterly flow around 10-20 mph will overlap with afternoon relative humidity reductions to around 10-15 percent on Tuesday afternoon. The best overlap of Critical winds and relative humidity appears to be across eastern Nevada into western Utah. Further south into northern Arizona and the Arizona Strip, winds may be at or just below Critical thresholds. However, ongoing fires with a history of erratic fire behavior warrant inclusion into the Critical area. Gusty and erratic winds from nearby thunderstorms will also be possible. ...Dry Thunderstorms... Isolated dry thunderstorms will be possible on the periphery of deeper monsoonal moisture across portions of northern Arizona into western Colorado, Utah, far southern Idaho, western Wyoming, and Nevada. Within these regions, PWs generally around 0.25-0.50" are expected with moisture remaining primarily mid-level with drier boundary layer conditions below. This will promote high based convection with little precipitation amid faster storm motions with the mid-level trough passage. Fuels within these regions are receptive to ignition and as such an isolated dry thunder area was maintained with this outlook. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0256 PM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEVADA INTO WESTERN UTAH AND NORTHERN ARIZONA... ...Dry Thunderstorms... An expansive area of isolated dry thunderstorms across the was maintained for this update, with only slight northward adjustments to highlights into north central Nevada as well as southeastern ID and far western WY given latest model guidance consensus. An advancing mid-level trough into the northwest and attendant increased mid-level flow will support faster thunderstorm motions particularly across central and northeastern NV Tuesday, with northeast trajectories of 20-30 mph. This will limit rainfall residence time and increase lightning ignition efficiency over dry fuels. ...Great Basin... Enhanced westerly flow over western Nevada associated with the an encroaching mid-level trough over a deeply mixed boundary layer will promote west winds approaching 20 mph across northwestern NV. Relative humidity combined with higher winds will support an elevated fire weather threat amid dry fuels. Higher winds under a similarly dry boundary layer will bring critical fire weather conditions to portions of eastern NV, southwestern UT and the Arizona Strip. ..Williams.. 07/14/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0144 AM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025/ ...Synopsis... A deepening mid-level wave will bring an increase in winds and potential for dry thunderstorms across the Great Basin on Tuesday. Elevated to Critical conditions can be expected in portions of eastern Nevada, western Utah, northern Arizona and southern Idaho. ...Eastern Nevada, western Utah, northern Arizona... Increasing southwesterly flow around 10-20 mph will overlap with afternoon relative humidity reductions to around 10-15 percent on Tuesday afternoon. The best overlap of Critical winds and relative humidity appears to be across eastern Nevada into western Utah. Further south into northern Arizona and the Arizona Strip, winds may be at or just below Critical thresholds. However, ongoing fires with a history of erratic fire behavior warrant inclusion into the Critical area. Gusty and erratic winds from nearby thunderstorms will also be possible. ...Dry Thunderstorms... Isolated dry thunderstorms will be possible on the periphery of deeper monsoonal moisture across portions of northern Arizona into western Colorado, Utah, far southern Idaho, western Wyoming, and Nevada. Within these regions, PWs generally around 0.25-0.50" are expected with moisture remaining primarily mid-level with drier boundary layer conditions below. This will promote high based convection with little precipitation amid faster storm motions with the mid-level trough passage. Fuels within these regions are receptive to ignition and as such an isolated dry thunder area was maintained with this outlook. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0256 PM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEVADA INTO WESTERN UTAH AND NORTHERN ARIZONA... ...Dry Thunderstorms... An expansive area of isolated dry thunderstorms across the was maintained for this update, with only slight northward adjustments to highlights into north central Nevada as well as southeastern ID and far western WY given latest model guidance consensus. An advancing mid-level trough into the northwest and attendant increased mid-level flow will support faster thunderstorm motions particularly across central and northeastern NV Tuesday, with northeast trajectories of 20-30 mph. This will limit rainfall residence time and increase lightning ignition efficiency over dry fuels. ...Great Basin... Enhanced westerly flow over western Nevada associated with the an encroaching mid-level trough over a deeply mixed boundary layer will promote west winds approaching 20 mph across northwestern NV. Relative humidity combined with higher winds will support an elevated fire weather threat amid dry fuels. Higher winds under a similarly dry boundary layer will bring critical fire weather conditions to portions of eastern NV, southwestern UT and the Arizona Strip. ..Williams.. 07/14/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0144 AM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025/ ...Synopsis... A deepening mid-level wave will bring an increase in winds and potential for dry thunderstorms across the Great Basin on Tuesday. Elevated to Critical conditions can be expected in portions of eastern Nevada, western Utah, northern Arizona and southern Idaho. ...Eastern Nevada, western Utah, northern Arizona... Increasing southwesterly flow around 10-20 mph will overlap with afternoon relative humidity reductions to around 10-15 percent on Tuesday afternoon. The best overlap of Critical winds and relative humidity appears to be across eastern Nevada into western Utah. Further south into northern Arizona and the Arizona Strip, winds may be at or just below Critical thresholds. However, ongoing fires with a history of erratic fire behavior warrant inclusion into the Critical area. Gusty and erratic winds from nearby thunderstorms will also be possible. ...Dry Thunderstorms... Isolated dry thunderstorms will be possible on the periphery of deeper monsoonal moisture across portions of northern Arizona into western Colorado, Utah, far southern Idaho, western Wyoming, and Nevada. Within these regions, PWs generally around 0.25-0.50" are expected with moisture remaining primarily mid-level with drier boundary layer conditions below. This will promote high based convection with little precipitation amid faster storm motions with the mid-level trough passage. Fuels within these regions are receptive to ignition and as such an isolated dry thunder area was maintained with this outlook. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0256 PM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEVADA INTO WESTERN UTAH AND NORTHERN ARIZONA... ...Dry Thunderstorms... An expansive area of isolated dry thunderstorms across the was maintained for this update, with only slight northward adjustments to highlights into north central Nevada as well as southeastern ID and far western WY given latest model guidance consensus. An advancing mid-level trough into the northwest and attendant increased mid-level flow will support faster thunderstorm motions particularly across central and northeastern NV Tuesday, with northeast trajectories of 20-30 mph. This will limit rainfall residence time and increase lightning ignition efficiency over dry fuels. ...Great Basin... Enhanced westerly flow over western Nevada associated with the an encroaching mid-level trough over a deeply mixed boundary layer will promote west winds approaching 20 mph across northwestern NV. Relative humidity combined with higher winds will support an elevated fire weather threat amid dry fuels. Higher winds under a similarly dry boundary layer will bring critical fire weather conditions to portions of eastern NV, southwestern UT and the Arizona Strip. ..Williams.. 07/14/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0144 AM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025/ ...Synopsis... A deepening mid-level wave will bring an increase in winds and potential for dry thunderstorms across the Great Basin on Tuesday. Elevated to Critical conditions can be expected in portions of eastern Nevada, western Utah, northern Arizona and southern Idaho. ...Eastern Nevada, western Utah, northern Arizona... Increasing southwesterly flow around 10-20 mph will overlap with afternoon relative humidity reductions to around 10-15 percent on Tuesday afternoon. The best overlap of Critical winds and relative humidity appears to be across eastern Nevada into western Utah. Further south into northern Arizona and the Arizona Strip, winds may be at or just below Critical thresholds. However, ongoing fires with a history of erratic fire behavior warrant inclusion into the Critical area. Gusty and erratic winds from nearby thunderstorms will also be possible. ...Dry Thunderstorms... Isolated dry thunderstorms will be possible on the periphery of deeper monsoonal moisture across portions of northern Arizona into western Colorado, Utah, far southern Idaho, western Wyoming, and Nevada. Within these regions, PWs generally around 0.25-0.50" are expected with moisture remaining primarily mid-level with drier boundary layer conditions below. This will promote high based convection with little precipitation amid faster storm motions with the mid-level trough passage. Fuels within these regions are receptive to ignition and as such an isolated dry thunder area was maintained with this outlook. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0256 PM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEVADA INTO WESTERN UTAH AND NORTHERN ARIZONA... ...Dry Thunderstorms... An expansive area of isolated dry thunderstorms across the was maintained for this update, with only slight northward adjustments to highlights into north central Nevada as well as southeastern ID and far western WY given latest model guidance consensus. An advancing mid-level trough into the northwest and attendant increased mid-level flow will support faster thunderstorm motions particularly across central and northeastern NV Tuesday, with northeast trajectories of 20-30 mph. This will limit rainfall residence time and increase lightning ignition efficiency over dry fuels. ...Great Basin... Enhanced westerly flow over western Nevada associated with the an encroaching mid-level trough over a deeply mixed boundary layer will promote west winds approaching 20 mph across northwestern NV. Relative humidity combined with higher winds will support an elevated fire weather threat amid dry fuels. Higher winds under a similarly dry boundary layer will bring critical fire weather conditions to portions of eastern NV, southwestern UT and the Arizona Strip. ..Williams.. 07/14/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0144 AM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025/ ...Synopsis... A deepening mid-level wave will bring an increase in winds and potential for dry thunderstorms across the Great Basin on Tuesday. Elevated to Critical conditions can be expected in portions of eastern Nevada, western Utah, northern Arizona and southern Idaho. ...Eastern Nevada, western Utah, northern Arizona... Increasing southwesterly flow around 10-20 mph will overlap with afternoon relative humidity reductions to around 10-15 percent on Tuesday afternoon. The best overlap of Critical winds and relative humidity appears to be across eastern Nevada into western Utah. Further south into northern Arizona and the Arizona Strip, winds may be at or just below Critical thresholds. However, ongoing fires with a history of erratic fire behavior warrant inclusion into the Critical area. Gusty and erratic winds from nearby thunderstorms will also be possible. ...Dry Thunderstorms... Isolated dry thunderstorms will be possible on the periphery of deeper monsoonal moisture across portions of northern Arizona into western Colorado, Utah, far southern Idaho, western Wyoming, and Nevada. Within these regions, PWs generally around 0.25-0.50" are expected with moisture remaining primarily mid-level with drier boundary layer conditions below. This will promote high based convection with little precipitation amid faster storm motions with the mid-level trough passage. Fuels within these regions are receptive to ignition and as such an isolated dry thunder area was maintained with this outlook. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0256 PM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEVADA INTO WESTERN UTAH AND NORTHERN ARIZONA... ...Dry Thunderstorms... An expansive area of isolated dry thunderstorms across the was maintained for this update, with only slight northward adjustments to highlights into north central Nevada as well as southeastern ID and far western WY given latest model guidance consensus. An advancing mid-level trough into the northwest and attendant increased mid-level flow will support faster thunderstorm motions particularly across central and northeastern NV Tuesday, with northeast trajectories of 20-30 mph. This will limit rainfall residence time and increase lightning ignition efficiency over dry fuels. ...Great Basin... Enhanced westerly flow over western Nevada associated with the an encroaching mid-level trough over a deeply mixed boundary layer will promote west winds approaching 20 mph across northwestern NV. Relative humidity combined with higher winds will support an elevated fire weather threat amid dry fuels. Higher winds under a similarly dry boundary layer will bring critical fire weather conditions to portions of eastern NV, southwestern UT and the Arizona Strip. ..Williams.. 07/14/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0144 AM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025/ ...Synopsis... A deepening mid-level wave will bring an increase in winds and potential for dry thunderstorms across the Great Basin on Tuesday. Elevated to Critical conditions can be expected in portions of eastern Nevada, western Utah, northern Arizona and southern Idaho. ...Eastern Nevada, western Utah, northern Arizona... Increasing southwesterly flow around 10-20 mph will overlap with afternoon relative humidity reductions to around 10-15 percent on Tuesday afternoon. The best overlap of Critical winds and relative humidity appears to be across eastern Nevada into western Utah. Further south into northern Arizona and the Arizona Strip, winds may be at or just below Critical thresholds. However, ongoing fires with a history of erratic fire behavior warrant inclusion into the Critical area. Gusty and erratic winds from nearby thunderstorms will also be possible. ...Dry Thunderstorms... Isolated dry thunderstorms will be possible on the periphery of deeper monsoonal moisture across portions of northern Arizona into western Colorado, Utah, far southern Idaho, western Wyoming, and Nevada. Within these regions, PWs generally around 0.25-0.50" are expected with moisture remaining primarily mid-level with drier boundary layer conditions below. This will promote high based convection with little precipitation amid faster storm motions with the mid-level trough passage. Fuels within these regions are receptive to ignition and as such an isolated dry thunder area was maintained with this outlook. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0256 PM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEVADA INTO WESTERN UTAH AND NORTHERN ARIZONA... ...Dry Thunderstorms... An expansive area of isolated dry thunderstorms across the was maintained for this update, with only slight northward adjustments to highlights into north central Nevada as well as southeastern ID and far western WY given latest model guidance consensus. An advancing mid-level trough into the northwest and attendant increased mid-level flow will support faster thunderstorm motions particularly across central and northeastern NV Tuesday, with northeast trajectories of 20-30 mph. This will limit rainfall residence time and increase lightning ignition efficiency over dry fuels. ...Great Basin... Enhanced westerly flow over western Nevada associated with the an encroaching mid-level trough over a deeply mixed boundary layer will promote west winds approaching 20 mph across northwestern NV. Relative humidity combined with higher winds will support an elevated fire weather threat amid dry fuels. Higher winds under a similarly dry boundary layer will bring critical fire weather conditions to portions of eastern NV, southwestern UT and the Arizona Strip. ..Williams.. 07/14/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0144 AM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025/ ...Synopsis... A deepening mid-level wave will bring an increase in winds and potential for dry thunderstorms across the Great Basin on Tuesday. Elevated to Critical conditions can be expected in portions of eastern Nevada, western Utah, northern Arizona and southern Idaho. ...Eastern Nevada, western Utah, northern Arizona... Increasing southwesterly flow around 10-20 mph will overlap with afternoon relative humidity reductions to around 10-15 percent on Tuesday afternoon. The best overlap of Critical winds and relative humidity appears to be across eastern Nevada into western Utah. Further south into northern Arizona and the Arizona Strip, winds may be at or just below Critical thresholds. However, ongoing fires with a history of erratic fire behavior warrant inclusion into the Critical area. Gusty and erratic winds from nearby thunderstorms will also be possible. ...Dry Thunderstorms... Isolated dry thunderstorms will be possible on the periphery of deeper monsoonal moisture across portions of northern Arizona into western Colorado, Utah, far southern Idaho, western Wyoming, and Nevada. Within these regions, PWs generally around 0.25-0.50" are expected with moisture remaining primarily mid-level with drier boundary layer conditions below. This will promote high based convection with little precipitation amid faster storm motions with the mid-level trough passage. Fuels within these regions are receptive to ignition and as such an isolated dry thunder area was maintained with this outlook. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0256 PM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEVADA INTO WESTERN UTAH AND NORTHERN ARIZONA... ...Dry Thunderstorms... An expansive area of isolated dry thunderstorms across the was maintained for this update, with only slight northward adjustments to highlights into north central Nevada as well as southeastern ID and far western WY given latest model guidance consensus. An advancing mid-level trough into the northwest and attendant increased mid-level flow will support faster thunderstorm motions particularly across central and northeastern NV Tuesday, with northeast trajectories of 20-30 mph. This will limit rainfall residence time and increase lightning ignition efficiency over dry fuels. ...Great Basin... Enhanced westerly flow over western Nevada associated with the an encroaching mid-level trough over a deeply mixed boundary layer will promote west winds approaching 20 mph across northwestern NV. Relative humidity combined with higher winds will support an elevated fire weather threat amid dry fuels. Higher winds under a similarly dry boundary layer will bring critical fire weather conditions to portions of eastern NV, southwestern UT and the Arizona Strip. ..Williams.. 07/14/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0144 AM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025/ ...Synopsis... A deepening mid-level wave will bring an increase in winds and potential for dry thunderstorms across the Great Basin on Tuesday. Elevated to Critical conditions can be expected in portions of eastern Nevada, western Utah, northern Arizona and southern Idaho. ...Eastern Nevada, western Utah, northern Arizona... Increasing southwesterly flow around 10-20 mph will overlap with afternoon relative humidity reductions to around 10-15 percent on Tuesday afternoon. The best overlap of Critical winds and relative humidity appears to be across eastern Nevada into western Utah. Further south into northern Arizona and the Arizona Strip, winds may be at or just below Critical thresholds. However, ongoing fires with a history of erratic fire behavior warrant inclusion into the Critical area. Gusty and erratic winds from nearby thunderstorms will also be possible. ...Dry Thunderstorms... Isolated dry thunderstorms will be possible on the periphery of deeper monsoonal moisture across portions of northern Arizona into western Colorado, Utah, far southern Idaho, western Wyoming, and Nevada. Within these regions, PWs generally around 0.25-0.50" are expected with moisture remaining primarily mid-level with drier boundary layer conditions below. This will promote high based convection with little precipitation amid faster storm motions with the mid-level trough passage. Fuels within these regions are receptive to ignition and as such an isolated dry thunder area was maintained with this outlook. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0256 PM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEVADA INTO WESTERN UTAH AND NORTHERN ARIZONA... ...Dry Thunderstorms... An expansive area of isolated dry thunderstorms across the was maintained for this update, with only slight northward adjustments to highlights into north central Nevada as well as southeastern ID and far western WY given latest model guidance consensus. An advancing mid-level trough into the northwest and attendant increased mid-level flow will support faster thunderstorm motions particularly across central and northeastern NV Tuesday, with northeast trajectories of 20-30 mph. This will limit rainfall residence time and increase lightning ignition efficiency over dry fuels. ...Great Basin... Enhanced westerly flow over western Nevada associated with the an encroaching mid-level trough over a deeply mixed boundary layer will promote west winds approaching 20 mph across northwestern NV. Relative humidity combined with higher winds will support an elevated fire weather threat amid dry fuels. Higher winds under a similarly dry boundary layer will bring critical fire weather conditions to portions of eastern NV, southwestern UT and the Arizona Strip. ..Williams.. 07/14/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0144 AM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025/ ...Synopsis... A deepening mid-level wave will bring an increase in winds and potential for dry thunderstorms across the Great Basin on Tuesday. Elevated to Critical conditions can be expected in portions of eastern Nevada, western Utah, northern Arizona and southern Idaho. ...Eastern Nevada, western Utah, northern Arizona... Increasing southwesterly flow around 10-20 mph will overlap with afternoon relative humidity reductions to around 10-15 percent on Tuesday afternoon. The best overlap of Critical winds and relative humidity appears to be across eastern Nevada into western Utah. Further south into northern Arizona and the Arizona Strip, winds may be at or just below Critical thresholds. However, ongoing fires with a history of erratic fire behavior warrant inclusion into the Critical area. Gusty and erratic winds from nearby thunderstorms will also be possible. ...Dry Thunderstorms... Isolated dry thunderstorms will be possible on the periphery of deeper monsoonal moisture across portions of northern Arizona into western Colorado, Utah, far southern Idaho, western Wyoming, and Nevada. Within these regions, PWs generally around 0.25-0.50" are expected with moisture remaining primarily mid-level with drier boundary layer conditions below. This will promote high based convection with little precipitation amid faster storm motions with the mid-level trough passage. Fuels within these regions are receptive to ignition and as such an isolated dry thunder area was maintained with this outlook. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 PM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS EASTWARD TO THE GREAT LAKES AND MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible Wednesday afternoon and evening from parts of the central High Plains to the Great Lakes. ...Central Plains... At the start of the period, several areas of convection are likely to be ongoing from eastern NE into northern KS and western IA. Additional storms are likely ahead of the slow-moving cold front/composite outflow sagging south from eastern WY and the Rockies. Re-intensification and additional storm development appears likely ahead of the boundary as a broad shortwave trough/MCV shift eastward. The stronger vertical shear will likely lag to the north of the front, casting some uncertainty on storm character. However, sufficient buoyancy/shear should still support a damaging gust and hail risk from the central High plains eastward. ...Great Lakes... As the shortwave trough/MCV moves eastward ahead of the front, redevelopment of scattered showers and thunderstorms is possible Wednesday across parts of WI into northern IL and MI. Enhanced westerly flow could support some severe risk with these storms through the afternoon and potentially across the lower Great lakes overnight. Confidence in the evolution of this threat is low but the general environment will be favorable for severe storms with 2000-3000 J/kg of MLCAPE and 25-30+ kt of effective shear. ...Gulf Coast... A tropical wave over the northern Gulf will likely support numerous thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon and evening. A very high PWAT air mass (> 2 inches) and slight enhancement of mid-level easterly shear could allow for brief storm organization along the immediate central Gulf Coast. Sporadic damaging gusts or a brief tornado could occur, though convective details remain limited. ...Upper OH Valley... On the fringes of the strong sub-tropical ridging, prior convection could result in the development of an MCV across the OH valley and central Appalachians early Wed. Should this occur, scattered storms may redevelop through the morning across the Upper OH valley. Slightly enhanced flow aloft and high PWATs would suggests some risk for damaging gusts is possible. However, confidence in the overall scenario is too low for higher probabilities at this time. ..Lyons.. 07/14/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 PM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS EASTWARD TO THE GREAT LAKES AND MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible Wednesday afternoon and evening from parts of the central High Plains to the Great Lakes. ...Central Plains... At the start of the period, several areas of convection are likely to be ongoing from eastern NE into northern KS and western IA. Additional storms are likely ahead of the slow-moving cold front/composite outflow sagging south from eastern WY and the Rockies. Re-intensification and additional storm development appears likely ahead of the boundary as a broad shortwave trough/MCV shift eastward. The stronger vertical shear will likely lag to the north of the front, casting some uncertainty on storm character. However, sufficient buoyancy/shear should still support a damaging gust and hail risk from the central High plains eastward. ...Great Lakes... As the shortwave trough/MCV moves eastward ahead of the front, redevelopment of scattered showers and thunderstorms is possible Wednesday across parts of WI into northern IL and MI. Enhanced westerly flow could support some severe risk with these storms through the afternoon and potentially across the lower Great lakes overnight. Confidence in the evolution of this threat is low but the general environment will be favorable for severe storms with 2000-3000 J/kg of MLCAPE and 25-30+ kt of effective shear. ...Gulf Coast... A tropical wave over the northern Gulf will likely support numerous thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon and evening. A very high PWAT air mass (> 2 inches) and slight enhancement of mid-level easterly shear could allow for brief storm organization along the immediate central Gulf Coast. Sporadic damaging gusts or a brief tornado could occur, though convective details remain limited. ...Upper OH Valley... On the fringes of the strong sub-tropical ridging, prior convection could result in the development of an MCV across the OH valley and central Appalachians early Wed. Should this occur, scattered storms may redevelop through the morning across the Upper OH valley. Slightly enhanced flow aloft and high PWATs would suggests some risk for damaging gusts is possible. However, confidence in the overall scenario is too low for higher probabilities at this time. ..Lyons.. 07/14/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 PM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS EASTWARD TO THE GREAT LAKES AND MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible Wednesday afternoon and evening from parts of the central High Plains to the Great Lakes. ...Central Plains... At the start of the period, several areas of convection are likely to be ongoing from eastern NE into northern KS and western IA. Additional storms are likely ahead of the slow-moving cold front/composite outflow sagging south from eastern WY and the Rockies. Re-intensification and additional storm development appears likely ahead of the boundary as a broad shortwave trough/MCV shift eastward. The stronger vertical shear will likely lag to the north of the front, casting some uncertainty on storm character. However, sufficient buoyancy/shear should still support a damaging gust and hail risk from the central High plains eastward. ...Great Lakes... As the shortwave trough/MCV moves eastward ahead of the front, redevelopment of scattered showers and thunderstorms is possible Wednesday across parts of WI into northern IL and MI. Enhanced westerly flow could support some severe risk with these storms through the afternoon and potentially across the lower Great lakes overnight. Confidence in the evolution of this threat is low but the general environment will be favorable for severe storms with 2000-3000 J/kg of MLCAPE and 25-30+ kt of effective shear. ...Gulf Coast... A tropical wave over the northern Gulf will likely support numerous thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon and evening. A very high PWAT air mass (> 2 inches) and slight enhancement of mid-level easterly shear could allow for brief storm organization along the immediate central Gulf Coast. Sporadic damaging gusts or a brief tornado could occur, though convective details remain limited. ...Upper OH Valley... On the fringes of the strong sub-tropical ridging, prior convection could result in the development of an MCV across the OH valley and central Appalachians early Wed. Should this occur, scattered storms may redevelop through the morning across the Upper OH valley. Slightly enhanced flow aloft and high PWATs would suggests some risk for damaging gusts is possible. However, confidence in the overall scenario is too low for higher probabilities at this time. ..Lyons.. 07/14/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 PM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS EASTWARD TO THE GREAT LAKES AND MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible Wednesday afternoon and evening from parts of the central High Plains to the Great Lakes. ...Central Plains... At the start of the period, several areas of convection are likely to be ongoing from eastern NE into northern KS and western IA. Additional storms are likely ahead of the slow-moving cold front/composite outflow sagging south from eastern WY and the Rockies. Re-intensification and additional storm development appears likely ahead of the boundary as a broad shortwave trough/MCV shift eastward. The stronger vertical shear will likely lag to the north of the front, casting some uncertainty on storm character. However, sufficient buoyancy/shear should still support a damaging gust and hail risk from the central High plains eastward. ...Great Lakes... As the shortwave trough/MCV moves eastward ahead of the front, redevelopment of scattered showers and thunderstorms is possible Wednesday across parts of WI into northern IL and MI. Enhanced westerly flow could support some severe risk with these storms through the afternoon and potentially across the lower Great lakes overnight. Confidence in the evolution of this threat is low but the general environment will be favorable for severe storms with 2000-3000 J/kg of MLCAPE and 25-30+ kt of effective shear. ...Gulf Coast... A tropical wave over the northern Gulf will likely support numerous thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon and evening. A very high PWAT air mass (> 2 inches) and slight enhancement of mid-level easterly shear could allow for brief storm organization along the immediate central Gulf Coast. Sporadic damaging gusts or a brief tornado could occur, though convective details remain limited. ...Upper OH Valley... On the fringes of the strong sub-tropical ridging, prior convection could result in the development of an MCV across the OH valley and central Appalachians early Wed. Should this occur, scattered storms may redevelop through the morning across the Upper OH valley. Slightly enhanced flow aloft and high PWATs would suggests some risk for damaging gusts is possible. However, confidence in the overall scenario is too low for higher probabilities at this time. ..Lyons.. 07/14/2025 Read more