Severe Storms

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sun Oct 9 17:52:02 UTC 2022.

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1159 AM CDT Sun Oct 09 2022 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The severe-thunderstorm threat is expected to be low on Monday. ...Trans-Pecos region into parts of the southern Plains... The persistent upper-level low near the Arizona/Sonora border is expected to weaken on Monday, as one mid/upper-level shortwave trough moves southward from northern CA to offshore of southern CA, and a stronger shortwave moves southeastward and amplifies across the interior Northwest and northern Rockies. As this occurs, multiple embedded vorticity maxima are forecast to eject northeastward from the Southwest into the southern Plains. One vorticity maximum is forecast to emerge over the TX Trans-Pecos region Monday afternoon, accompanied by scattered to widespread thunderstorm development. Another storm cluster may move from northwest TX into OK through the day. Weak to locally moderate buoyancy and modest effective shear (generally peaking at 20-25 kt) will support the potential for a few strong storms capable of gusty winds and small hail, though at this time the magnitude of instability/shear appears too limited for an organized severe-thunderstorm threat. ..Dean.. 10/09/2022 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1119 AM CDT Sun Oct 09 2022 Valid 091700Z - 101200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The forecast remains on track, and no changes are needed with this update. For details, see the previous discussion below. ..Weinman.. 10/09/2022 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0149 AM CDT Sun Oct 09 2022/ ...Synopsis... Very dry conditions are expected across Alabama and southern Georgia on Sunday, but winds should be light. Therefore, the threat for large fires should be minimal. Elsewhere, no breezy conditions are expected to accompany dry surface conditions and dry fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1115 AM CDT Sun Oct 09 2022 Valid 091630Z - 101200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms appear unlikely today. ...Southwest... The mid/upper low anchored along the AZ/Sonora border will remain nearly stationary through tonight. Scattered afternoon thunderstorms are once again expected ahead of this feature from southeast AZ to the TX Trans-Pecos and north to the Four Corners area. Strong storm potential will be limited by weak effective shear across much of the region. A couple of storms may produce small hail and strong winds over the TX Trans-Pecos where a confined belt of 500-mb winds from 20-25 kts is expected. ...South FL... A plume of moisture characterized by PW values in excess of 2 inches will support isolated to scattered thunderstorms this afternoon from the Treasure Coast to the Paradise Coast and Everglades. Despite generally weak deep-layer winds, veering of the wind profile with height from low-level easterlies to mid-level southwesterlies should result in modest effective shear of 20-25 kt. Diurnal heating should contribute to moderate buoyancy, and a few strong storms may develop containing sub-severe hail and wind. ..Bunting/Wendt.. 10/09/2022 Read more

No watches are valid as of Sat Oct 8 17:34:01 UTC 2022.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sat Oct 8 17:34:01 UTC 2022.

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1142 AM CDT Sat Oct 08 2022 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The severe-thunderstorm threat is expected to be low on Sunday. ...Southwest... Scattered thunderstorms will be possible on Sunday across parts of the Southwest, in association with a persistent mid/upper-level low centered near the Arizona/Sonora border. A few strong storms capable of gusty winds and small hail cannot be ruled out, especially from southeast AZ into far west TX, where somewhat stronger instability may develop by afternoon. Weak deep-layer shear is expected to limit the organized severe-thunderstorm threat. ...Central/south Florida... Scattered thunderstorms are expected across parts of central/south Florida on Sunday, as deeper tropical moisture returns to the region. Moderate buoyancy may support a few strong storms during the afternoon into early evening, but weak deep-layer flow/shear is expected to limit storm organization. ..Dean.. 10/08/2022 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1120 AM CDT Sat Oct 08 2022 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, and no changes were needed with this update. ..Weinman.. 10/08/2022 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0139 AM CDT Sat Oct 08 2022/ ...Synopsis... Dry, northerly flow will persist across the Southeast on Sunday. Relative humidity is expected to drop below 20 percent across portions of eastern Alabama into western and southern Georgia. Despite the very dry relative humidity, winds are expected to remain light, 6-9 mph, and therefore, no elevated highlights are warranted. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1119 AM CDT Sat Oct 08 2022 Valid 081700Z - 091200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The forecast remains on track, and no changes were made with this update. For details, see the previous discussion below. ..Weinman.. 10/08/2022 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0139 AM CDT Sat Oct 08 2022/ ...Synopsis... Windy conditions are expected across the Great Lakes on Saturday. However, fuels in this area are mostly moist and relative humidity is forecast to be mostly 35-40 percent and above which will preclude major fire weather concerns. Dry conditions are expected across the Southeast in the post-frontal airmass. Relative humidity is sufficiently dry, but winds are only expected to peak around 10 mph during the afternoon. In addition, the best overlap of dry/breezy conditions is expected across portions of northern Alabama where fuels are less dry. Therefore, an increase in initial attack may occur across Alabama and vicinity, but winds remain too light for an elevated delineation. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1104 AM CDT Sat Oct 08 2022 Valid 081630Z - 091200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not expected today. ...Southwest... An upper low will remain centered over Sonora today and tonight, with showers/thunderstorms again expected on its northern periphery, with peak convective activity expected this afternoon into evening. Modestly stronger mid-level winds may allow for storms to somewhat organize off the Mogollon Rim toward the Lower Colorado River Valley this evening, with another regional maximization of scattered thunderstorms expected across southeast Arizona/southwest New Mexico. While a few strong storms are possible, modest instability and weak vertical shear (effective 20 kt or less) are expected to keep the potential for organized severe thunderstorms low. ...Florida... Higher PW values are expected to spread northwest from the Florida Straits into southeast Florida, coincident with relatively warm mid-level temperatures and poor mid-level lapse rates. This moistening process should lead to increasing isolated/scattered showers over land this afternoon into evening, with some potential that a few of these cells could produce an occasional lightning flash. ..Guyer/Wendt.. 10/08/2022 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1231 PM CDT Fri Oct 07 2022 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... In addition to the fire-weather concerns described below, locally elevated conditions are possible across parts of the Southeast during peak heating. Despite generally light sustained northerly surface winds across the region (near 10 mph), 25-35 percent minimum RH and 15 mph gusts could still support locally elevated conditions given increasingly dry fuels. However, the lack of a stronger sustained surface wind field precludes Elevated highlights at this time. ..Weinman.. 10/07/2022 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0147 AM CDT Fri Oct 07 2022/ ...Synopsis... Some breezy conditions are anticipated across the Great Lakes on Saturday. However, fuels are mostly moist in this region and relative humidity should remain above 35-40 percent across most of the area. Elsewhere winds are mostly light where fuels are critically dry. Therefore, fire weather concerns should remain minimal on Saturday. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Fri Oct 7 17:33:02 UTC 2022.

No watches are valid as of Fri Oct 7 17:33:02 UTC 2022.

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Fri Oct 07 2022 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not expected on Saturday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A weak upper low is forecast to remain centered over northwestern Mexico and southern AZ on Saturday. Modest low-level moisture should be in place across parts of the Southwest into the southern Plains. Terrain driven circulations should aid in isolated to scattered convective development Saturday afternoon across much of AZ/NM into southern UT/CO. Additional thunderstorms may spread from northern Mexico into parts of far west TX through Saturday night. Anemic deep-layer shear across these areas will likely hinder updraft organization and limit severe thunderstorm potential. Surface high pressure will dominate much of the central/eastern CONUS, with offshore low-level trajectories over much of the Gulf and East Coast limiting thunderstorm chances. One exception may be across parts of south FL and the Keys, where greater low-level moisture is forecast along/south of a cold front. ..Gleason.. 10/07/2022 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1121 AM CDT Fri Oct 07 2022 Valid 071700Z - 081200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The forecast remains on track, and no changes were made with this update. For details, see the previous discussion below. ..Weinman.. 10/07/2022 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0147 AM CDT Fri Oct 07 2022/ ...Synopsis... Fuels are moist across much of the western CONUS except for some spotty drier fuels in the northern Sierra into southeast Oregon. However, winds will be light across this region. A larger region of critically dry fuels is present across much of the central and southern Plains into portions of the Gulf Coast. Winds will also be mostly light across this region and therefore, no fire weather concerns are anticipated. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1118 AM CDT Fri Oct 07 2022 Valid 071630Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Northern New England/Maine... A cyclone will continue to deepen over Quebec with a cold front sweeping eastward across northern New England/Maine by early evening. The front-preceding warm sector is not overly moist (upper 40s to low 50s F surface dewpoints) with scattered to locally broken cloud cover. However, some additional warming will allow for the development of a few hundred J/kg of MLCAPE, which will support an increase and gradual intensification of low-topped convection near the front this afternoon. A few of these thunderstorms could produce gusty winds (perhaps ~40 mph), although severe-caliber storms/wind gusts are not currently expected. ...Southwest Deserts... On the northern periphery of an upper low centered near Sonora, modest destabilization is expected this afternoon across interior southern California and roughly the southern half of Arizona. Vertical shear will be weak, but a few pulse-type storms could produce gusty winds/small hail from mid-afternoon until early evening. ..Guyer/Wendt.. 10/07/2022 Read more

No watches are valid as of Thu Oct 6 17:50:06 UTC 2022.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Thu Oct 6 17:50:06 UTC 2022.

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1153 AM CDT Thu Oct 06 2022 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are unlikely on Friday. ...Synopsis... A broad upper trough will envelop most of the eastern half of the CONUS on Friday. Within this larger-scale flow, a positively tilted shortwave trough will pivot across the Ohio Valley and Northeast. At the surface, low pressure over Quebec will lift north/northeast along the St. Lawrence Valley. A trailing cold front will push east across the Northeast, while the southern extent of the front develops southward across the southern Plains and southeastern U.S. Strong surface high pressure will develop south and east across much of the central and eastern CONUS behind the cold front. Ahead of the front, limited boundary-layer moisture and weak instability will limit severe potential, though isolated general thunderstorms are possible across parts of New England. Further west, an upper low will persist over the Gulf of California/northwest Mexico, maintaining midlevel moisture across the southwestern U.S. Cool midlevel temperatures will aid in modest destabilization, and isolated to scattered thunderstorms will once again be possible during the afternoon/evening across the Southwest. Weak vertical shear and MLCAPE generally less than 500 J/kg will preclude severe thunderstorm potential. ..Leitman.. 10/06/2022 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1114 AM CDT Thu Oct 06 2022 Valid 061630Z - 071200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are unlikely today and tonight across the continental United States. ...Synopsis... Broadly cyclonic mid-level flow will exist from the northern/central Plains eastward to the mid-Atlantic/northeast U.S. through tonight. Areas of larger-scale ascent associated with embedded shortwave troughs, and a southeast-moving cold front, will affect portions of the central/northern Plains, Great Lakes and New England. Buoyancy will be minimal in these areas, though sufficient for a few thunderstorms. A weak upper low over AZ/NM will drift southwest today. Surfaced-based instability on the order of a few hundred J/kg this afternoon will support scattered thunderstorms. An inverted surface trough over the western Gulf of Mexico will move towards the south Texas coast today. Surface dew points in the upper 60s will contribute to sufficient CAPE for isolated thunderstorm development. Severe weather is not anticipated across the continental U.S. through tonight. ..Bunting/Thornton.. 10/06/2022 Read more