Severe Storms

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1235 PM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025 Valid 151700Z - 161200Z CORRECTED FOR ERRANT LINE IN SOUTHERN TEXAS ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NORTHEASTERN NEVADA...NORTHWESTERN UTAH AND SOUTH CENTRAL IDAHO... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR EASTERN NEVADA INTO WESTERN UTAH AND NORTHERN ARIZONA... ...Dry Thunderstorms... A mid-level trough and attendant increased mid-level flow will provide support for more sustained convection across portions northeastern NV, far northwestern UT and south-central ID this afternoon. High-based thunderstorm motions of 25-30 mph will limit rainfall to less than 0.10 inch while also bringing potential new ignitions over a very dry fuelscape in addition to gusty and erratic outflow winds from downbursts. Less concentrated but still impactful elevated thunderstorms will bring new ignition potential to portions of the Four Corners area, much of UT, northeastern NV, southeastern ID and western WY. Otherwise, dry and breezy conditions across the Snake River Plain and the Great Basin will bring elevated fire weather conditions to the region today. A critical fire weather threat remains for portions of southeast NV, southwestern UT and the Arizona Strip. ..Williams.. 07/15/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0154 AM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025/ ...Synopsis... An active day for fire weather is expected across the Southwest and Great Basin today. A deepening mid-level wave will bring an increase in winds and potential for dry thunderstorms across the Great Basin today. Elevated to Critical conditions can be expected in portions of eastern Nevada, western Utah, northern Arizona and southern Idaho. ...Eastern Nevada, western Utah, northern Arizona... West to southwesterly flow around 15-20 mph will overlap afternoon relative humidity reductions to 10-15 percent across portions of eastern NV, western UT, and northern AZ. Fuels in these regions are critically dry, with notable increase in fire activity over the last couple of weeks. In addition to background surface winds, nearby thunderstorm activity may further produce gusty and erratic outflow winds. ...Dry Thunderstorms... A broad area of dry thunderstorms will be possible across portions of northern Arizona into western Colorado, Utah, far southern Idaho, western Wyoming, and Nevada. Moisture varies across these regions with potential for a mix of wet/dry storms in a few locations. Moisture remains mostly mid-level and with increased storm motions expected with the passage of the mid-level trough, it is likely that rainfall will be limited and local with new lightning ignitions possible. Fuels are critically dry with an uptick in fire activity over last several weeks. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1235 PM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025 Valid 151700Z - 161200Z CORRECTED FOR ERRANT LINE IN SOUTHERN TEXAS ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NORTHEASTERN NEVADA...NORTHWESTERN UTAH AND SOUTH CENTRAL IDAHO... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR EASTERN NEVADA INTO WESTERN UTAH AND NORTHERN ARIZONA... ...Dry Thunderstorms... A mid-level trough and attendant increased mid-level flow will provide support for more sustained convection across portions northeastern NV, far northwestern UT and south-central ID this afternoon. High-based thunderstorm motions of 25-30 mph will limit rainfall to less than 0.10 inch while also bringing potential new ignitions over a very dry fuelscape in addition to gusty and erratic outflow winds from downbursts. Less concentrated but still impactful elevated thunderstorms will bring new ignition potential to portions of the Four Corners area, much of UT, northeastern NV, southeastern ID and western WY. Otherwise, dry and breezy conditions across the Snake River Plain and the Great Basin will bring elevated fire weather conditions to the region today. A critical fire weather threat remains for portions of southeast NV, southwestern UT and the Arizona Strip. ..Williams.. 07/15/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0154 AM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025/ ...Synopsis... An active day for fire weather is expected across the Southwest and Great Basin today. A deepening mid-level wave will bring an increase in winds and potential for dry thunderstorms across the Great Basin today. Elevated to Critical conditions can be expected in portions of eastern Nevada, western Utah, northern Arizona and southern Idaho. ...Eastern Nevada, western Utah, northern Arizona... West to southwesterly flow around 15-20 mph will overlap afternoon relative humidity reductions to 10-15 percent across portions of eastern NV, western UT, and northern AZ. Fuels in these regions are critically dry, with notable increase in fire activity over the last couple of weeks. In addition to background surface winds, nearby thunderstorm activity may further produce gusty and erratic outflow winds. ...Dry Thunderstorms... A broad area of dry thunderstorms will be possible across portions of northern Arizona into western Colorado, Utah, far southern Idaho, western Wyoming, and Nevada. Moisture varies across these regions with potential for a mix of wet/dry storms in a few locations. Moisture remains mostly mid-level and with increased storm motions expected with the passage of the mid-level trough, it is likely that rainfall will be limited and local with new lightning ignitions possible. Fuels are critically dry with an uptick in fire activity over last several weeks. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1235 PM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025 Valid 151700Z - 161200Z CORRECTED FOR ERRANT LINE IN SOUTHERN TEXAS ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NORTHEASTERN NEVADA...NORTHWESTERN UTAH AND SOUTH CENTRAL IDAHO... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR EASTERN NEVADA INTO WESTERN UTAH AND NORTHERN ARIZONA... ...Dry Thunderstorms... A mid-level trough and attendant increased mid-level flow will provide support for more sustained convection across portions northeastern NV, far northwestern UT and south-central ID this afternoon. High-based thunderstorm motions of 25-30 mph will limit rainfall to less than 0.10 inch while also bringing potential new ignitions over a very dry fuelscape in addition to gusty and erratic outflow winds from downbursts. Less concentrated but still impactful elevated thunderstorms will bring new ignition potential to portions of the Four Corners area, much of UT, northeastern NV, southeastern ID and western WY. Otherwise, dry and breezy conditions across the Snake River Plain and the Great Basin will bring elevated fire weather conditions to the region today. A critical fire weather threat remains for portions of southeast NV, southwestern UT and the Arizona Strip. ..Williams.. 07/15/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0154 AM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025/ ...Synopsis... An active day for fire weather is expected across the Southwest and Great Basin today. A deepening mid-level wave will bring an increase in winds and potential for dry thunderstorms across the Great Basin today. Elevated to Critical conditions can be expected in portions of eastern Nevada, western Utah, northern Arizona and southern Idaho. ...Eastern Nevada, western Utah, northern Arizona... West to southwesterly flow around 15-20 mph will overlap afternoon relative humidity reductions to 10-15 percent across portions of eastern NV, western UT, and northern AZ. Fuels in these regions are critically dry, with notable increase in fire activity over the last couple of weeks. In addition to background surface winds, nearby thunderstorm activity may further produce gusty and erratic outflow winds. ...Dry Thunderstorms... A broad area of dry thunderstorms will be possible across portions of northern Arizona into western Colorado, Utah, far southern Idaho, western Wyoming, and Nevada. Moisture varies across these regions with potential for a mix of wet/dry storms in a few locations. Moisture remains mostly mid-level and with increased storm motions expected with the passage of the mid-level trough, it is likely that rainfall will be limited and local with new lightning ignitions possible. Fuels are critically dry with an uptick in fire activity over last several weeks. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1235 PM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025 Valid 151700Z - 161200Z CORRECTED FOR ERRANT LINE IN SOUTHERN TEXAS ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NORTHEASTERN NEVADA...NORTHWESTERN UTAH AND SOUTH CENTRAL IDAHO... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR EASTERN NEVADA INTO WESTERN UTAH AND NORTHERN ARIZONA... ...Dry Thunderstorms... A mid-level trough and attendant increased mid-level flow will provide support for more sustained convection across portions northeastern NV, far northwestern UT and south-central ID this afternoon. High-based thunderstorm motions of 25-30 mph will limit rainfall to less than 0.10 inch while also bringing potential new ignitions over a very dry fuelscape in addition to gusty and erratic outflow winds from downbursts. Less concentrated but still impactful elevated thunderstorms will bring new ignition potential to portions of the Four Corners area, much of UT, northeastern NV, southeastern ID and western WY. Otherwise, dry and breezy conditions across the Snake River Plain and the Great Basin will bring elevated fire weather conditions to the region today. A critical fire weather threat remains for portions of southeast NV, southwestern UT and the Arizona Strip. ..Williams.. 07/15/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0154 AM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025/ ...Synopsis... An active day for fire weather is expected across the Southwest and Great Basin today. A deepening mid-level wave will bring an increase in winds and potential for dry thunderstorms across the Great Basin today. Elevated to Critical conditions can be expected in portions of eastern Nevada, western Utah, northern Arizona and southern Idaho. ...Eastern Nevada, western Utah, northern Arizona... West to southwesterly flow around 15-20 mph will overlap afternoon relative humidity reductions to 10-15 percent across portions of eastern NV, western UT, and northern AZ. Fuels in these regions are critically dry, with notable increase in fire activity over the last couple of weeks. In addition to background surface winds, nearby thunderstorm activity may further produce gusty and erratic outflow winds. ...Dry Thunderstorms... A broad area of dry thunderstorms will be possible across portions of northern Arizona into western Colorado, Utah, far southern Idaho, western Wyoming, and Nevada. Moisture varies across these regions with potential for a mix of wet/dry storms in a few locations. Moisture remains mostly mid-level and with increased storm motions expected with the passage of the mid-level trough, it is likely that rainfall will be limited and local with new lightning ignitions possible. Fuels are critically dry with an uptick in fire activity over last several weeks. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1235 PM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025 Valid 151700Z - 161200Z CORRECTED FOR ERRANT LINE IN SOUTHERN TEXAS ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NORTHEASTERN NEVADA...NORTHWESTERN UTAH AND SOUTH CENTRAL IDAHO... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR EASTERN NEVADA INTO WESTERN UTAH AND NORTHERN ARIZONA... ...Dry Thunderstorms... A mid-level trough and attendant increased mid-level flow will provide support for more sustained convection across portions northeastern NV, far northwestern UT and south-central ID this afternoon. High-based thunderstorm motions of 25-30 mph will limit rainfall to less than 0.10 inch while also bringing potential new ignitions over a very dry fuelscape in addition to gusty and erratic outflow winds from downbursts. Less concentrated but still impactful elevated thunderstorms will bring new ignition potential to portions of the Four Corners area, much of UT, northeastern NV, southeastern ID and western WY. Otherwise, dry and breezy conditions across the Snake River Plain and the Great Basin will bring elevated fire weather conditions to the region today. A critical fire weather threat remains for portions of southeast NV, southwestern UT and the Arizona Strip. ..Williams.. 07/15/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0154 AM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025/ ...Synopsis... An active day for fire weather is expected across the Southwest and Great Basin today. A deepening mid-level wave will bring an increase in winds and potential for dry thunderstorms across the Great Basin today. Elevated to Critical conditions can be expected in portions of eastern Nevada, western Utah, northern Arizona and southern Idaho. ...Eastern Nevada, western Utah, northern Arizona... West to southwesterly flow around 15-20 mph will overlap afternoon relative humidity reductions to 10-15 percent across portions of eastern NV, western UT, and northern AZ. Fuels in these regions are critically dry, with notable increase in fire activity over the last couple of weeks. In addition to background surface winds, nearby thunderstorm activity may further produce gusty and erratic outflow winds. ...Dry Thunderstorms... A broad area of dry thunderstorms will be possible across portions of northern Arizona into western Colorado, Utah, far southern Idaho, western Wyoming, and Nevada. Moisture varies across these regions with potential for a mix of wet/dry storms in a few locations. Moisture remains mostly mid-level and with increased storm motions expected with the passage of the mid-level trough, it is likely that rainfall will be limited and local with new lightning ignitions possible. Fuels are critically dry with an uptick in fire activity over last several weeks. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1235 PM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025 Valid 151700Z - 161200Z CORRECTED FOR ERRANT LINE IN SOUTHERN TEXAS ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NORTHEASTERN NEVADA...NORTHWESTERN UTAH AND SOUTH CENTRAL IDAHO... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR EASTERN NEVADA INTO WESTERN UTAH AND NORTHERN ARIZONA... ...Dry Thunderstorms... A mid-level trough and attendant increased mid-level flow will provide support for more sustained convection across portions northeastern NV, far northwestern UT and south-central ID this afternoon. High-based thunderstorm motions of 25-30 mph will limit rainfall to less than 0.10 inch while also bringing potential new ignitions over a very dry fuelscape in addition to gusty and erratic outflow winds from downbursts. Less concentrated but still impactful elevated thunderstorms will bring new ignition potential to portions of the Four Corners area, much of UT, northeastern NV, southeastern ID and western WY. Otherwise, dry and breezy conditions across the Snake River Plain and the Great Basin will bring elevated fire weather conditions to the region today. A critical fire weather threat remains for portions of southeast NV, southwestern UT and the Arizona Strip. ..Williams.. 07/15/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0154 AM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025/ ...Synopsis... An active day for fire weather is expected across the Southwest and Great Basin today. A deepening mid-level wave will bring an increase in winds and potential for dry thunderstorms across the Great Basin today. Elevated to Critical conditions can be expected in portions of eastern Nevada, western Utah, northern Arizona and southern Idaho. ...Eastern Nevada, western Utah, northern Arizona... West to southwesterly flow around 15-20 mph will overlap afternoon relative humidity reductions to 10-15 percent across portions of eastern NV, western UT, and northern AZ. Fuels in these regions are critically dry, with notable increase in fire activity over the last couple of weeks. In addition to background surface winds, nearby thunderstorm activity may further produce gusty and erratic outflow winds. ...Dry Thunderstorms... A broad area of dry thunderstorms will be possible across portions of northern Arizona into western Colorado, Utah, far southern Idaho, western Wyoming, and Nevada. Moisture varies across these regions with potential for a mix of wet/dry storms in a few locations. Moisture remains mostly mid-level and with increased storm motions expected with the passage of the mid-level trough, it is likely that rainfall will be limited and local with new lightning ignitions possible. Fuels are critically dry with an uptick in fire activity over last several weeks. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1235 PM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025 Valid 151700Z - 161200Z CORRECTED FOR ERRANT LINE IN SOUTHERN TEXAS ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NORTHEASTERN NEVADA...NORTHWESTERN UTAH AND SOUTH CENTRAL IDAHO... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR EASTERN NEVADA INTO WESTERN UTAH AND NORTHERN ARIZONA... ...Dry Thunderstorms... A mid-level trough and attendant increased mid-level flow will provide support for more sustained convection across portions northeastern NV, far northwestern UT and south-central ID this afternoon. High-based thunderstorm motions of 25-30 mph will limit rainfall to less than 0.10 inch while also bringing potential new ignitions over a very dry fuelscape in addition to gusty and erratic outflow winds from downbursts. Less concentrated but still impactful elevated thunderstorms will bring new ignition potential to portions of the Four Corners area, much of UT, northeastern NV, southeastern ID and western WY. Otherwise, dry and breezy conditions across the Snake River Plain and the Great Basin will bring elevated fire weather conditions to the region today. A critical fire weather threat remains for portions of southeast NV, southwestern UT and the Arizona Strip. ..Williams.. 07/15/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0154 AM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025/ ...Synopsis... An active day for fire weather is expected across the Southwest and Great Basin today. A deepening mid-level wave will bring an increase in winds and potential for dry thunderstorms across the Great Basin today. Elevated to Critical conditions can be expected in portions of eastern Nevada, western Utah, northern Arizona and southern Idaho. ...Eastern Nevada, western Utah, northern Arizona... West to southwesterly flow around 15-20 mph will overlap afternoon relative humidity reductions to 10-15 percent across portions of eastern NV, western UT, and northern AZ. Fuels in these regions are critically dry, with notable increase in fire activity over the last couple of weeks. In addition to background surface winds, nearby thunderstorm activity may further produce gusty and erratic outflow winds. ...Dry Thunderstorms... A broad area of dry thunderstorms will be possible across portions of northern Arizona into western Colorado, Utah, far southern Idaho, western Wyoming, and Nevada. Moisture varies across these regions with potential for a mix of wet/dry storms in a few locations. Moisture remains mostly mid-level and with increased storm motions expected with the passage of the mid-level trough, it is likely that rainfall will be limited and local with new lightning ignitions possible. Fuels are critically dry with an uptick in fire activity over last several weeks. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1235 PM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025 Valid 151700Z - 161200Z CORRECTED FOR ERRANT LINE IN SOUTHERN TEXAS ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NORTHEASTERN NEVADA...NORTHWESTERN UTAH AND SOUTH CENTRAL IDAHO... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR EASTERN NEVADA INTO WESTERN UTAH AND NORTHERN ARIZONA... ...Dry Thunderstorms... A mid-level trough and attendant increased mid-level flow will provide support for more sustained convection across portions northeastern NV, far northwestern UT and south-central ID this afternoon. High-based thunderstorm motions of 25-30 mph will limit rainfall to less than 0.10 inch while also bringing potential new ignitions over a very dry fuelscape in addition to gusty and erratic outflow winds from downbursts. Less concentrated but still impactful elevated thunderstorms will bring new ignition potential to portions of the Four Corners area, much of UT, northeastern NV, southeastern ID and western WY. Otherwise, dry and breezy conditions across the Snake River Plain and the Great Basin will bring elevated fire weather conditions to the region today. A critical fire weather threat remains for portions of southeast NV, southwestern UT and the Arizona Strip. ..Williams.. 07/15/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0154 AM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025/ ...Synopsis... An active day for fire weather is expected across the Southwest and Great Basin today. A deepening mid-level wave will bring an increase in winds and potential for dry thunderstorms across the Great Basin today. Elevated to Critical conditions can be expected in portions of eastern Nevada, western Utah, northern Arizona and southern Idaho. ...Eastern Nevada, western Utah, northern Arizona... West to southwesterly flow around 15-20 mph will overlap afternoon relative humidity reductions to 10-15 percent across portions of eastern NV, western UT, and northern AZ. Fuels in these regions are critically dry, with notable increase in fire activity over the last couple of weeks. In addition to background surface winds, nearby thunderstorm activity may further produce gusty and erratic outflow winds. ...Dry Thunderstorms... A broad area of dry thunderstorms will be possible across portions of northern Arizona into western Colorado, Utah, far southern Idaho, western Wyoming, and Nevada. Moisture varies across these regions with potential for a mix of wet/dry storms in a few locations. Moisture remains mostly mid-level and with increased storm motions expected with the passage of the mid-level trough, it is likely that rainfall will be limited and local with new lightning ignitions possible. Fuels are critically dry with an uptick in fire activity over last several weeks. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1235 PM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025 Valid 151700Z - 161200Z CORRECTED FOR ERRANT LINE IN SOUTHERN TEXAS ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NORTHEASTERN NEVADA...NORTHWESTERN UTAH AND SOUTH CENTRAL IDAHO... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR EASTERN NEVADA INTO WESTERN UTAH AND NORTHERN ARIZONA... ...Dry Thunderstorms... A mid-level trough and attendant increased mid-level flow will provide support for more sustained convection across portions northeastern NV, far northwestern UT and south-central ID this afternoon. High-based thunderstorm motions of 25-30 mph will limit rainfall to less than 0.10 inch while also bringing potential new ignitions over a very dry fuelscape in addition to gusty and erratic outflow winds from downbursts. Less concentrated but still impactful elevated thunderstorms will bring new ignition potential to portions of the Four Corners area, much of UT, northeastern NV, southeastern ID and western WY. Otherwise, dry and breezy conditions across the Snake River Plain and the Great Basin will bring elevated fire weather conditions to the region today. A critical fire weather threat remains for portions of southeast NV, southwestern UT and the Arizona Strip. ..Williams.. 07/15/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0154 AM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025/ ...Synopsis... An active day for fire weather is expected across the Southwest and Great Basin today. A deepening mid-level wave will bring an increase in winds and potential for dry thunderstorms across the Great Basin today. Elevated to Critical conditions can be expected in portions of eastern Nevada, western Utah, northern Arizona and southern Idaho. ...Eastern Nevada, western Utah, northern Arizona... West to southwesterly flow around 15-20 mph will overlap afternoon relative humidity reductions to 10-15 percent across portions of eastern NV, western UT, and northern AZ. Fuels in these regions are critically dry, with notable increase in fire activity over the last couple of weeks. In addition to background surface winds, nearby thunderstorm activity may further produce gusty and erratic outflow winds. ...Dry Thunderstorms... A broad area of dry thunderstorms will be possible across portions of northern Arizona into western Colorado, Utah, far southern Idaho, western Wyoming, and Nevada. Moisture varies across these regions with potential for a mix of wet/dry storms in a few locations. Moisture remains mostly mid-level and with increased storm motions expected with the passage of the mid-level trough, it is likely that rainfall will be limited and local with new lightning ignitions possible. Fuels are critically dry with an uptick in fire activity over last several weeks. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1235 PM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025 Valid 151700Z - 161200Z CORRECTED FOR ERRANT LINE IN SOUTHERN TEXAS ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NORTHEASTERN NEVADA...NORTHWESTERN UTAH AND SOUTH CENTRAL IDAHO... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR EASTERN NEVADA INTO WESTERN UTAH AND NORTHERN ARIZONA... ...Dry Thunderstorms... A mid-level trough and attendant increased mid-level flow will provide support for more sustained convection across portions northeastern NV, far northwestern UT and south-central ID this afternoon. High-based thunderstorm motions of 25-30 mph will limit rainfall to less than 0.10 inch while also bringing potential new ignitions over a very dry fuelscape in addition to gusty and erratic outflow winds from downbursts. Less concentrated but still impactful elevated thunderstorms will bring new ignition potential to portions of the Four Corners area, much of UT, northeastern NV, southeastern ID and western WY. Otherwise, dry and breezy conditions across the Snake River Plain and the Great Basin will bring elevated fire weather conditions to the region today. A critical fire weather threat remains for portions of southeast NV, southwestern UT and the Arizona Strip. ..Williams.. 07/15/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0154 AM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025/ ...Synopsis... An active day for fire weather is expected across the Southwest and Great Basin today. A deepening mid-level wave will bring an increase in winds and potential for dry thunderstorms across the Great Basin today. Elevated to Critical conditions can be expected in portions of eastern Nevada, western Utah, northern Arizona and southern Idaho. ...Eastern Nevada, western Utah, northern Arizona... West to southwesterly flow around 15-20 mph will overlap afternoon relative humidity reductions to 10-15 percent across portions of eastern NV, western UT, and northern AZ. Fuels in these regions are critically dry, with notable increase in fire activity over the last couple of weeks. In addition to background surface winds, nearby thunderstorm activity may further produce gusty and erratic outflow winds. ...Dry Thunderstorms... A broad area of dry thunderstorms will be possible across portions of northern Arizona into western Colorado, Utah, far southern Idaho, western Wyoming, and Nevada. Moisture varies across these regions with potential for a mix of wet/dry storms in a few locations. Moisture remains mostly mid-level and with increased storm motions expected with the passage of the mid-level trough, it is likely that rainfall will be limited and local with new lightning ignitions possible. Fuels are critically dry with an uptick in fire activity over last several weeks. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1235 PM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025 Valid 151700Z - 161200Z CORRECTED FOR ERRANT LINE IN SOUTHERN TEXAS ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NORTHEASTERN NEVADA...NORTHWESTERN UTAH AND SOUTH CENTRAL IDAHO... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR EASTERN NEVADA INTO WESTERN UTAH AND NORTHERN ARIZONA... ...Dry Thunderstorms... A mid-level trough and attendant increased mid-level flow will provide support for more sustained convection across portions northeastern NV, far northwestern UT and south-central ID this afternoon. High-based thunderstorm motions of 25-30 mph will limit rainfall to less than 0.10 inch while also bringing potential new ignitions over a very dry fuelscape in addition to gusty and erratic outflow winds from downbursts. Less concentrated but still impactful elevated thunderstorms will bring new ignition potential to portions of the Four Corners area, much of UT, northeastern NV, southeastern ID and western WY. Otherwise, dry and breezy conditions across the Snake River Plain and the Great Basin will bring elevated fire weather conditions to the region today. A critical fire weather threat remains for portions of southeast NV, southwestern UT and the Arizona Strip. ..Williams.. 07/15/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0154 AM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025/ ...Synopsis... An active day for fire weather is expected across the Southwest and Great Basin today. A deepening mid-level wave will bring an increase in winds and potential for dry thunderstorms across the Great Basin today. Elevated to Critical conditions can be expected in portions of eastern Nevada, western Utah, northern Arizona and southern Idaho. ...Eastern Nevada, western Utah, northern Arizona... West to southwesterly flow around 15-20 mph will overlap afternoon relative humidity reductions to 10-15 percent across portions of eastern NV, western UT, and northern AZ. Fuels in these regions are critically dry, with notable increase in fire activity over the last couple of weeks. In addition to background surface winds, nearby thunderstorm activity may further produce gusty and erratic outflow winds. ...Dry Thunderstorms... A broad area of dry thunderstorms will be possible across portions of northern Arizona into western Colorado, Utah, far southern Idaho, western Wyoming, and Nevada. Moisture varies across these regions with potential for a mix of wet/dry storms in a few locations. Moisture remains mostly mid-level and with increased storm motions expected with the passage of the mid-level trough, it is likely that rainfall will be limited and local with new lightning ignitions possible. Fuels are critically dry with an uptick in fire activity over last several weeks. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1232 PM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE AND THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible Wednesday afternoon and evening from parts of the central High Plains to the Great Lakes. ...Front Range and High Plains... A shortwave trough over the northern Rockies will intensify as it moves eastward across the central US Wednesday. A cold front across the Front Range and High Plains will continue to sag slowly southward as surface moisture deepens behind it. Within the broad up slope flow regime, scattered storm development is expected across the higher terrain of the central Rockies and High Plains by early afternoon Wednesday. Enhanced mid-level flow will support initial supercells capable of hail and isolated damaging gusts. Local terrain effects and enhanced low-level shear near the front may also allow for a tornado or two. Scattered severe storms expand in coverage across the I-25 corridor through the afternoon before moving eastward into the plains through the evening. How far east the severe threat will extend remains uncertain as cooler temperatures and lingering inhibition are likely to be in place behind the front. Should sufficient upscale growth take place, an MCS may develop and merge with additional convection farther east before continuing south/southeastward across the central Plains overnight. This would support a continued risk for at least isolated damaging gusts. ...Central Plains... As the cold front continues to move southward across the central Plains, lingering inhibition and forcing for ascent displaced to the north should limit convective development along the front through much of the day However, warm surface temperatures and 60s-70s F surface dewpoints will support large buoyancy along the front. As a 30-40 kt low-level jet increases into the evening, storm development is expected with increasing low-level warm air advection. Isolated damaging gust are possible. ...Great Lakes... A convectively augmented shortwave trough over the central Plains will quickly move eastward along the sagging cold front. Ascent from this feature will aid in developing a wave cyclone along the front, enhancing the low-level flow field across parts of WI and northern IL. An ongoing arc of storms near the surface low should gradually re-intensify through the morning and into the early afternoon. Moderate MLCAPE and strengthening flow aloft will support a mix of cells and clusters. The primary risk is expected to be damaging gusts, though enlarged low-level hodographs and 100-200 J/kg of MLCAPE below 3km AGL may support some tornado risk with the more cellular elements. With time gradual upscale growth into a more linear structure is expected near the western shores of Lake Michigan with a continued risk for damaging gusts. To the east, strong heating of a very humid air mass is expected across Lower Michigan through the afternoon. Scattered to widespread storms are likely along the typical lake breeze fronts. Vertical shear will be weaker through the afternoon, though at least some enhancement of the flow field could support isolated damaging gusts with scattered to numerous storms expected. There is some potential for a more organized line/cluster of storms on the western side of the lake to move eastward across Lake Michigan late in the evening and through the overnight hours. Stronger flow aloft near the shortwave trough could support damaging gust and brief tornado potential across parts of northern Lower Michigan overnight. Higher severe probabilities could be needed if confidence in this convective scenario increases in future outlooks. ...Upper OH valley... Widespread thunderstorms are expected across the region in response to a shortwave impulse. Modest instability is forecast amid a very moist airmass. While vertical shear will remain fairly limited, some slight enhancement near the upper trough could support a few longer-lived storm clusters. Isolated strong gusts/wet microbursts could occur, with the more intense storms. ...Northern Gulf Coast... Scattered to numerous thunderstorms associated with Invest 93L will occasionally move onshore across the northern/central Gulf Coast Wednesday and Wednesday night. Enhancement of low and mid-level easterly shear north of the weak surface circulation may support a few longer-lived cells near the coast. Sporadic damaging gusts and perhaps a brief tornado are possible, though confidence in this convective scenario is very low. ..Lyons.. 07/15/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1232 PM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE AND THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible Wednesday afternoon and evening from parts of the central High Plains to the Great Lakes. ...Front Range and High Plains... A shortwave trough over the northern Rockies will intensify as it moves eastward across the central US Wednesday. A cold front across the Front Range and High Plains will continue to sag slowly southward as surface moisture deepens behind it. Within the broad up slope flow regime, scattered storm development is expected across the higher terrain of the central Rockies and High Plains by early afternoon Wednesday. Enhanced mid-level flow will support initial supercells capable of hail and isolated damaging gusts. Local terrain effects and enhanced low-level shear near the front may also allow for a tornado or two. Scattered severe storms expand in coverage across the I-25 corridor through the afternoon before moving eastward into the plains through the evening. How far east the severe threat will extend remains uncertain as cooler temperatures and lingering inhibition are likely to be in place behind the front. Should sufficient upscale growth take place, an MCS may develop and merge with additional convection farther east before continuing south/southeastward across the central Plains overnight. This would support a continued risk for at least isolated damaging gusts. ...Central Plains... As the cold front continues to move southward across the central Plains, lingering inhibition and forcing for ascent displaced to the north should limit convective development along the front through much of the day However, warm surface temperatures and 60s-70s F surface dewpoints will support large buoyancy along the front. As a 30-40 kt low-level jet increases into the evening, storm development is expected with increasing low-level warm air advection. Isolated damaging gust are possible. ...Great Lakes... A convectively augmented shortwave trough over the central Plains will quickly move eastward along the sagging cold front. Ascent from this feature will aid in developing a wave cyclone along the front, enhancing the low-level flow field across parts of WI and northern IL. An ongoing arc of storms near the surface low should gradually re-intensify through the morning and into the early afternoon. Moderate MLCAPE and strengthening flow aloft will support a mix of cells and clusters. The primary risk is expected to be damaging gusts, though enlarged low-level hodographs and 100-200 J/kg of MLCAPE below 3km AGL may support some tornado risk with the more cellular elements. With time gradual upscale growth into a more linear structure is expected near the western shores of Lake Michigan with a continued risk for damaging gusts. To the east, strong heating of a very humid air mass is expected across Lower Michigan through the afternoon. Scattered to widespread storms are likely along the typical lake breeze fronts. Vertical shear will be weaker through the afternoon, though at least some enhancement of the flow field could support isolated damaging gusts with scattered to numerous storms expected. There is some potential for a more organized line/cluster of storms on the western side of the lake to move eastward across Lake Michigan late in the evening and through the overnight hours. Stronger flow aloft near the shortwave trough could support damaging gust and brief tornado potential across parts of northern Lower Michigan overnight. Higher severe probabilities could be needed if confidence in this convective scenario increases in future outlooks. ...Upper OH valley... Widespread thunderstorms are expected across the region in response to a shortwave impulse. Modest instability is forecast amid a very moist airmass. While vertical shear will remain fairly limited, some slight enhancement near the upper trough could support a few longer-lived storm clusters. Isolated strong gusts/wet microbursts could occur, with the more intense storms. ...Northern Gulf Coast... Scattered to numerous thunderstorms associated with Invest 93L will occasionally move onshore across the northern/central Gulf Coast Wednesday and Wednesday night. Enhancement of low and mid-level easterly shear north of the weak surface circulation may support a few longer-lived cells near the coast. Sporadic damaging gusts and perhaps a brief tornado are possible, though confidence in this convective scenario is very low. ..Lyons.. 07/15/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1232 PM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE AND THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible Wednesday afternoon and evening from parts of the central High Plains to the Great Lakes. ...Front Range and High Plains... A shortwave trough over the northern Rockies will intensify as it moves eastward across the central US Wednesday. A cold front across the Front Range and High Plains will continue to sag slowly southward as surface moisture deepens behind it. Within the broad up slope flow regime, scattered storm development is expected across the higher terrain of the central Rockies and High Plains by early afternoon Wednesday. Enhanced mid-level flow will support initial supercells capable of hail and isolated damaging gusts. Local terrain effects and enhanced low-level shear near the front may also allow for a tornado or two. Scattered severe storms expand in coverage across the I-25 corridor through the afternoon before moving eastward into the plains through the evening. How far east the severe threat will extend remains uncertain as cooler temperatures and lingering inhibition are likely to be in place behind the front. Should sufficient upscale growth take place, an MCS may develop and merge with additional convection farther east before continuing south/southeastward across the central Plains overnight. This would support a continued risk for at least isolated damaging gusts. ...Central Plains... As the cold front continues to move southward across the central Plains, lingering inhibition and forcing for ascent displaced to the north should limit convective development along the front through much of the day However, warm surface temperatures and 60s-70s F surface dewpoints will support large buoyancy along the front. As a 30-40 kt low-level jet increases into the evening, storm development is expected with increasing low-level warm air advection. Isolated damaging gust are possible. ...Great Lakes... A convectively augmented shortwave trough over the central Plains will quickly move eastward along the sagging cold front. Ascent from this feature will aid in developing a wave cyclone along the front, enhancing the low-level flow field across parts of WI and northern IL. An ongoing arc of storms near the surface low should gradually re-intensify through the morning and into the early afternoon. Moderate MLCAPE and strengthening flow aloft will support a mix of cells and clusters. The primary risk is expected to be damaging gusts, though enlarged low-level hodographs and 100-200 J/kg of MLCAPE below 3km AGL may support some tornado risk with the more cellular elements. With time gradual upscale growth into a more linear structure is expected near the western shores of Lake Michigan with a continued risk for damaging gusts. To the east, strong heating of a very humid air mass is expected across Lower Michigan through the afternoon. Scattered to widespread storms are likely along the typical lake breeze fronts. Vertical shear will be weaker through the afternoon, though at least some enhancement of the flow field could support isolated damaging gusts with scattered to numerous storms expected. There is some potential for a more organized line/cluster of storms on the western side of the lake to move eastward across Lake Michigan late in the evening and through the overnight hours. Stronger flow aloft near the shortwave trough could support damaging gust and brief tornado potential across parts of northern Lower Michigan overnight. Higher severe probabilities could be needed if confidence in this convective scenario increases in future outlooks. ...Upper OH valley... Widespread thunderstorms are expected across the region in response to a shortwave impulse. Modest instability is forecast amid a very moist airmass. While vertical shear will remain fairly limited, some slight enhancement near the upper trough could support a few longer-lived storm clusters. Isolated strong gusts/wet microbursts could occur, with the more intense storms. ...Northern Gulf Coast... Scattered to numerous thunderstorms associated with Invest 93L will occasionally move onshore across the northern/central Gulf Coast Wednesday and Wednesday night. Enhancement of low and mid-level easterly shear north of the weak surface circulation may support a few longer-lived cells near the coast. Sporadic damaging gusts and perhaps a brief tornado are possible, though confidence in this convective scenario is very low. ..Lyons.. 07/15/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1232 PM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE AND THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible Wednesday afternoon and evening from parts of the central High Plains to the Great Lakes. ...Front Range and High Plains... A shortwave trough over the northern Rockies will intensify as it moves eastward across the central US Wednesday. A cold front across the Front Range and High Plains will continue to sag slowly southward as surface moisture deepens behind it. Within the broad up slope flow regime, scattered storm development is expected across the higher terrain of the central Rockies and High Plains by early afternoon Wednesday. Enhanced mid-level flow will support initial supercells capable of hail and isolated damaging gusts. Local terrain effects and enhanced low-level shear near the front may also allow for a tornado or two. Scattered severe storms expand in coverage across the I-25 corridor through the afternoon before moving eastward into the plains through the evening. How far east the severe threat will extend remains uncertain as cooler temperatures and lingering inhibition are likely to be in place behind the front. Should sufficient upscale growth take place, an MCS may develop and merge with additional convection farther east before continuing south/southeastward across the central Plains overnight. This would support a continued risk for at least isolated damaging gusts. ...Central Plains... As the cold front continues to move southward across the central Plains, lingering inhibition and forcing for ascent displaced to the north should limit convective development along the front through much of the day However, warm surface temperatures and 60s-70s F surface dewpoints will support large buoyancy along the front. As a 30-40 kt low-level jet increases into the evening, storm development is expected with increasing low-level warm air advection. Isolated damaging gust are possible. ...Great Lakes... A convectively augmented shortwave trough over the central Plains will quickly move eastward along the sagging cold front. Ascent from this feature will aid in developing a wave cyclone along the front, enhancing the low-level flow field across parts of WI and northern IL. An ongoing arc of storms near the surface low should gradually re-intensify through the morning and into the early afternoon. Moderate MLCAPE and strengthening flow aloft will support a mix of cells and clusters. The primary risk is expected to be damaging gusts, though enlarged low-level hodographs and 100-200 J/kg of MLCAPE below 3km AGL may support some tornado risk with the more cellular elements. With time gradual upscale growth into a more linear structure is expected near the western shores of Lake Michigan with a continued risk for damaging gusts. To the east, strong heating of a very humid air mass is expected across Lower Michigan through the afternoon. Scattered to widespread storms are likely along the typical lake breeze fronts. Vertical shear will be weaker through the afternoon, though at least some enhancement of the flow field could support isolated damaging gusts with scattered to numerous storms expected. There is some potential for a more organized line/cluster of storms on the western side of the lake to move eastward across Lake Michigan late in the evening and through the overnight hours. Stronger flow aloft near the shortwave trough could support damaging gust and brief tornado potential across parts of northern Lower Michigan overnight. Higher severe probabilities could be needed if confidence in this convective scenario increases in future outlooks. ...Upper OH valley... Widespread thunderstorms are expected across the region in response to a shortwave impulse. Modest instability is forecast amid a very moist airmass. While vertical shear will remain fairly limited, some slight enhancement near the upper trough could support a few longer-lived storm clusters. Isolated strong gusts/wet microbursts could occur, with the more intense storms. ...Northern Gulf Coast... Scattered to numerous thunderstorms associated with Invest 93L will occasionally move onshore across the northern/central Gulf Coast Wednesday and Wednesday night. Enhancement of low and mid-level easterly shear north of the weak surface circulation may support a few longer-lived cells near the coast. Sporadic damaging gusts and perhaps a brief tornado are possible, though confidence in this convective scenario is very low. ..Lyons.. 07/15/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1232 PM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE AND THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible Wednesday afternoon and evening from parts of the central High Plains to the Great Lakes. ...Front Range and High Plains... A shortwave trough over the northern Rockies will intensify as it moves eastward across the central US Wednesday. A cold front across the Front Range and High Plains will continue to sag slowly southward as surface moisture deepens behind it. Within the broad up slope flow regime, scattered storm development is expected across the higher terrain of the central Rockies and High Plains by early afternoon Wednesday. Enhanced mid-level flow will support initial supercells capable of hail and isolated damaging gusts. Local terrain effects and enhanced low-level shear near the front may also allow for a tornado or two. Scattered severe storms expand in coverage across the I-25 corridor through the afternoon before moving eastward into the plains through the evening. How far east the severe threat will extend remains uncertain as cooler temperatures and lingering inhibition are likely to be in place behind the front. Should sufficient upscale growth take place, an MCS may develop and merge with additional convection farther east before continuing south/southeastward across the central Plains overnight. This would support a continued risk for at least isolated damaging gusts. ...Central Plains... As the cold front continues to move southward across the central Plains, lingering inhibition and forcing for ascent displaced to the north should limit convective development along the front through much of the day However, warm surface temperatures and 60s-70s F surface dewpoints will support large buoyancy along the front. As a 30-40 kt low-level jet increases into the evening, storm development is expected with increasing low-level warm air advection. Isolated damaging gust are possible. ...Great Lakes... A convectively augmented shortwave trough over the central Plains will quickly move eastward along the sagging cold front. Ascent from this feature will aid in developing a wave cyclone along the front, enhancing the low-level flow field across parts of WI and northern IL. An ongoing arc of storms near the surface low should gradually re-intensify through the morning and into the early afternoon. Moderate MLCAPE and strengthening flow aloft will support a mix of cells and clusters. The primary risk is expected to be damaging gusts, though enlarged low-level hodographs and 100-200 J/kg of MLCAPE below 3km AGL may support some tornado risk with the more cellular elements. With time gradual upscale growth into a more linear structure is expected near the western shores of Lake Michigan with a continued risk for damaging gusts. To the east, strong heating of a very humid air mass is expected across Lower Michigan through the afternoon. Scattered to widespread storms are likely along the typical lake breeze fronts. Vertical shear will be weaker through the afternoon, though at least some enhancement of the flow field could support isolated damaging gusts with scattered to numerous storms expected. There is some potential for a more organized line/cluster of storms on the western side of the lake to move eastward across Lake Michigan late in the evening and through the overnight hours. Stronger flow aloft near the shortwave trough could support damaging gust and brief tornado potential across parts of northern Lower Michigan overnight. Higher severe probabilities could be needed if confidence in this convective scenario increases in future outlooks. ...Upper OH valley... Widespread thunderstorms are expected across the region in response to a shortwave impulse. Modest instability is forecast amid a very moist airmass. While vertical shear will remain fairly limited, some slight enhancement near the upper trough could support a few longer-lived storm clusters. Isolated strong gusts/wet microbursts could occur, with the more intense storms. ...Northern Gulf Coast... Scattered to numerous thunderstorms associated with Invest 93L will occasionally move onshore across the northern/central Gulf Coast Wednesday and Wednesday night. Enhancement of low and mid-level easterly shear north of the weak surface circulation may support a few longer-lived cells near the coast. Sporadic damaging gusts and perhaps a brief tornado are possible, though confidence in this convective scenario is very low. ..Lyons.. 07/15/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1232 PM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE AND THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible Wednesday afternoon and evening from parts of the central High Plains to the Great Lakes. ...Front Range and High Plains... A shortwave trough over the northern Rockies will intensify as it moves eastward across the central US Wednesday. A cold front across the Front Range and High Plains will continue to sag slowly southward as surface moisture deepens behind it. Within the broad up slope flow regime, scattered storm development is expected across the higher terrain of the central Rockies and High Plains by early afternoon Wednesday. Enhanced mid-level flow will support initial supercells capable of hail and isolated damaging gusts. Local terrain effects and enhanced low-level shear near the front may also allow for a tornado or two. Scattered severe storms expand in coverage across the I-25 corridor through the afternoon before moving eastward into the plains through the evening. How far east the severe threat will extend remains uncertain as cooler temperatures and lingering inhibition are likely to be in place behind the front. Should sufficient upscale growth take place, an MCS may develop and merge with additional convection farther east before continuing south/southeastward across the central Plains overnight. This would support a continued risk for at least isolated damaging gusts. ...Central Plains... As the cold front continues to move southward across the central Plains, lingering inhibition and forcing for ascent displaced to the north should limit convective development along the front through much of the day However, warm surface temperatures and 60s-70s F surface dewpoints will support large buoyancy along the front. As a 30-40 kt low-level jet increases into the evening, storm development is expected with increasing low-level warm air advection. Isolated damaging gust are possible. ...Great Lakes... A convectively augmented shortwave trough over the central Plains will quickly move eastward along the sagging cold front. Ascent from this feature will aid in developing a wave cyclone along the front, enhancing the low-level flow field across parts of WI and northern IL. An ongoing arc of storms near the surface low should gradually re-intensify through the morning and into the early afternoon. Moderate MLCAPE and strengthening flow aloft will support a mix of cells and clusters. The primary risk is expected to be damaging gusts, though enlarged low-level hodographs and 100-200 J/kg of MLCAPE below 3km AGL may support some tornado risk with the more cellular elements. With time gradual upscale growth into a more linear structure is expected near the western shores of Lake Michigan with a continued risk for damaging gusts. To the east, strong heating of a very humid air mass is expected across Lower Michigan through the afternoon. Scattered to widespread storms are likely along the typical lake breeze fronts. Vertical shear will be weaker through the afternoon, though at least some enhancement of the flow field could support isolated damaging gusts with scattered to numerous storms expected. There is some potential for a more organized line/cluster of storms on the western side of the lake to move eastward across Lake Michigan late in the evening and through the overnight hours. Stronger flow aloft near the shortwave trough could support damaging gust and brief tornado potential across parts of northern Lower Michigan overnight. Higher severe probabilities could be needed if confidence in this convective scenario increases in future outlooks. ...Upper OH valley... Widespread thunderstorms are expected across the region in response to a shortwave impulse. Modest instability is forecast amid a very moist airmass. While vertical shear will remain fairly limited, some slight enhancement near the upper trough could support a few longer-lived storm clusters. Isolated strong gusts/wet microbursts could occur, with the more intense storms. ...Northern Gulf Coast... Scattered to numerous thunderstorms associated with Invest 93L will occasionally move onshore across the northern/central Gulf Coast Wednesday and Wednesday night. Enhancement of low and mid-level easterly shear north of the weak surface circulation may support a few longer-lived cells near the coast. Sporadic damaging gusts and perhaps a brief tornado are possible, though confidence in this convective scenario is very low. ..Lyons.. 07/15/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1232 PM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE AND THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible Wednesday afternoon and evening from parts of the central High Plains to the Great Lakes. ...Front Range and High Plains... A shortwave trough over the northern Rockies will intensify as it moves eastward across the central US Wednesday. A cold front across the Front Range and High Plains will continue to sag slowly southward as surface moisture deepens behind it. Within the broad up slope flow regime, scattered storm development is expected across the higher terrain of the central Rockies and High Plains by early afternoon Wednesday. Enhanced mid-level flow will support initial supercells capable of hail and isolated damaging gusts. Local terrain effects and enhanced low-level shear near the front may also allow for a tornado or two. Scattered severe storms expand in coverage across the I-25 corridor through the afternoon before moving eastward into the plains through the evening. How far east the severe threat will extend remains uncertain as cooler temperatures and lingering inhibition are likely to be in place behind the front. Should sufficient upscale growth take place, an MCS may develop and merge with additional convection farther east before continuing south/southeastward across the central Plains overnight. This would support a continued risk for at least isolated damaging gusts. ...Central Plains... As the cold front continues to move southward across the central Plains, lingering inhibition and forcing for ascent displaced to the north should limit convective development along the front through much of the day However, warm surface temperatures and 60s-70s F surface dewpoints will support large buoyancy along the front. As a 30-40 kt low-level jet increases into the evening, storm development is expected with increasing low-level warm air advection. Isolated damaging gust are possible. ...Great Lakes... A convectively augmented shortwave trough over the central Plains will quickly move eastward along the sagging cold front. Ascent from this feature will aid in developing a wave cyclone along the front, enhancing the low-level flow field across parts of WI and northern IL. An ongoing arc of storms near the surface low should gradually re-intensify through the morning and into the early afternoon. Moderate MLCAPE and strengthening flow aloft will support a mix of cells and clusters. The primary risk is expected to be damaging gusts, though enlarged low-level hodographs and 100-200 J/kg of MLCAPE below 3km AGL may support some tornado risk with the more cellular elements. With time gradual upscale growth into a more linear structure is expected near the western shores of Lake Michigan with a continued risk for damaging gusts. To the east, strong heating of a very humid air mass is expected across Lower Michigan through the afternoon. Scattered to widespread storms are likely along the typical lake breeze fronts. Vertical shear will be weaker through the afternoon, though at least some enhancement of the flow field could support isolated damaging gusts with scattered to numerous storms expected. There is some potential for a more organized line/cluster of storms on the western side of the lake to move eastward across Lake Michigan late in the evening and through the overnight hours. Stronger flow aloft near the shortwave trough could support damaging gust and brief tornado potential across parts of northern Lower Michigan overnight. Higher severe probabilities could be needed if confidence in this convective scenario increases in future outlooks. ...Upper OH valley... Widespread thunderstorms are expected across the region in response to a shortwave impulse. Modest instability is forecast amid a very moist airmass. While vertical shear will remain fairly limited, some slight enhancement near the upper trough could support a few longer-lived storm clusters. Isolated strong gusts/wet microbursts could occur, with the more intense storms. ...Northern Gulf Coast... Scattered to numerous thunderstorms associated with Invest 93L will occasionally move onshore across the northern/central Gulf Coast Wednesday and Wednesday night. Enhancement of low and mid-level easterly shear north of the weak surface circulation may support a few longer-lived cells near the coast. Sporadic damaging gusts and perhaps a brief tornado are possible, though confidence in this convective scenario is very low. ..Lyons.. 07/15/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1232 PM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE AND THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible Wednesday afternoon and evening from parts of the central High Plains to the Great Lakes. ...Front Range and High Plains... A shortwave trough over the northern Rockies will intensify as it moves eastward across the central US Wednesday. A cold front across the Front Range and High Plains will continue to sag slowly southward as surface moisture deepens behind it. Within the broad up slope flow regime, scattered storm development is expected across the higher terrain of the central Rockies and High Plains by early afternoon Wednesday. Enhanced mid-level flow will support initial supercells capable of hail and isolated damaging gusts. Local terrain effects and enhanced low-level shear near the front may also allow for a tornado or two. Scattered severe storms expand in coverage across the I-25 corridor through the afternoon before moving eastward into the plains through the evening. How far east the severe threat will extend remains uncertain as cooler temperatures and lingering inhibition are likely to be in place behind the front. Should sufficient upscale growth take place, an MCS may develop and merge with additional convection farther east before continuing south/southeastward across the central Plains overnight. This would support a continued risk for at least isolated damaging gusts. ...Central Plains... As the cold front continues to move southward across the central Plains, lingering inhibition and forcing for ascent displaced to the north should limit convective development along the front through much of the day However, warm surface temperatures and 60s-70s F surface dewpoints will support large buoyancy along the front. As a 30-40 kt low-level jet increases into the evening, storm development is expected with increasing low-level warm air advection. Isolated damaging gust are possible. ...Great Lakes... A convectively augmented shortwave trough over the central Plains will quickly move eastward along the sagging cold front. Ascent from this feature will aid in developing a wave cyclone along the front, enhancing the low-level flow field across parts of WI and northern IL. An ongoing arc of storms near the surface low should gradually re-intensify through the morning and into the early afternoon. Moderate MLCAPE and strengthening flow aloft will support a mix of cells and clusters. The primary risk is expected to be damaging gusts, though enlarged low-level hodographs and 100-200 J/kg of MLCAPE below 3km AGL may support some tornado risk with the more cellular elements. With time gradual upscale growth into a more linear structure is expected near the western shores of Lake Michigan with a continued risk for damaging gusts. To the east, strong heating of a very humid air mass is expected across Lower Michigan through the afternoon. Scattered to widespread storms are likely along the typical lake breeze fronts. Vertical shear will be weaker through the afternoon, though at least some enhancement of the flow field could support isolated damaging gusts with scattered to numerous storms expected. There is some potential for a more organized line/cluster of storms on the western side of the lake to move eastward across Lake Michigan late in the evening and through the overnight hours. Stronger flow aloft near the shortwave trough could support damaging gust and brief tornado potential across parts of northern Lower Michigan overnight. Higher severe probabilities could be needed if confidence in this convective scenario increases in future outlooks. ...Upper OH valley... Widespread thunderstorms are expected across the region in response to a shortwave impulse. Modest instability is forecast amid a very moist airmass. While vertical shear will remain fairly limited, some slight enhancement near the upper trough could support a few longer-lived storm clusters. Isolated strong gusts/wet microbursts could occur, with the more intense storms. ...Northern Gulf Coast... Scattered to numerous thunderstorms associated with Invest 93L will occasionally move onshore across the northern/central Gulf Coast Wednesday and Wednesday night. Enhancement of low and mid-level easterly shear north of the weak surface circulation may support a few longer-lived cells near the coast. Sporadic damaging gusts and perhaps a brief tornado are possible, though confidence in this convective scenario is very low. ..Lyons.. 07/15/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1232 PM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE AND THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible Wednesday afternoon and evening from parts of the central High Plains to the Great Lakes. ...Front Range and High Plains... A shortwave trough over the northern Rockies will intensify as it moves eastward across the central US Wednesday. A cold front across the Front Range and High Plains will continue to sag slowly southward as surface moisture deepens behind it. Within the broad up slope flow regime, scattered storm development is expected across the higher terrain of the central Rockies and High Plains by early afternoon Wednesday. Enhanced mid-level flow will support initial supercells capable of hail and isolated damaging gusts. Local terrain effects and enhanced low-level shear near the front may also allow for a tornado or two. Scattered severe storms expand in coverage across the I-25 corridor through the afternoon before moving eastward into the plains through the evening. How far east the severe threat will extend remains uncertain as cooler temperatures and lingering inhibition are likely to be in place behind the front. Should sufficient upscale growth take place, an MCS may develop and merge with additional convection farther east before continuing south/southeastward across the central Plains overnight. This would support a continued risk for at least isolated damaging gusts. ...Central Plains... As the cold front continues to move southward across the central Plains, lingering inhibition and forcing for ascent displaced to the north should limit convective development along the front through much of the day However, warm surface temperatures and 60s-70s F surface dewpoints will support large buoyancy along the front. As a 30-40 kt low-level jet increases into the evening, storm development is expected with increasing low-level warm air advection. Isolated damaging gust are possible. ...Great Lakes... A convectively augmented shortwave trough over the central Plains will quickly move eastward along the sagging cold front. Ascent from this feature will aid in developing a wave cyclone along the front, enhancing the low-level flow field across parts of WI and northern IL. An ongoing arc of storms near the surface low should gradually re-intensify through the morning and into the early afternoon. Moderate MLCAPE and strengthening flow aloft will support a mix of cells and clusters. The primary risk is expected to be damaging gusts, though enlarged low-level hodographs and 100-200 J/kg of MLCAPE below 3km AGL may support some tornado risk with the more cellular elements. With time gradual upscale growth into a more linear structure is expected near the western shores of Lake Michigan with a continued risk for damaging gusts. To the east, strong heating of a very humid air mass is expected across Lower Michigan through the afternoon. Scattered to widespread storms are likely along the typical lake breeze fronts. Vertical shear will be weaker through the afternoon, though at least some enhancement of the flow field could support isolated damaging gusts with scattered to numerous storms expected. There is some potential for a more organized line/cluster of storms on the western side of the lake to move eastward across Lake Michigan late in the evening and through the overnight hours. Stronger flow aloft near the shortwave trough could support damaging gust and brief tornado potential across parts of northern Lower Michigan overnight. Higher severe probabilities could be needed if confidence in this convective scenario increases in future outlooks. ...Upper OH valley... Widespread thunderstorms are expected across the region in response to a shortwave impulse. Modest instability is forecast amid a very moist airmass. While vertical shear will remain fairly limited, some slight enhancement near the upper trough could support a few longer-lived storm clusters. Isolated strong gusts/wet microbursts could occur, with the more intense storms. ...Northern Gulf Coast... Scattered to numerous thunderstorms associated with Invest 93L will occasionally move onshore across the northern/central Gulf Coast Wednesday and Wednesday night. Enhancement of low and mid-level easterly shear north of the weak surface circulation may support a few longer-lived cells near the coast. Sporadic damaging gusts and perhaps a brief tornado are possible, though confidence in this convective scenario is very low. ..Lyons.. 07/15/2025 Read more