Severe Storms

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 PM CST Tue Dec 13 2022 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes to the ongoing forecast. ..Wendt.. 12/13/2022 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0153 AM CST Tue Dec 13 2022/ ...Synopsis... Across the CONUS, the deep upper-level low over the Plains is forecast to slowly fill starting Wednesday. At the surface, dry and cool northwesterly flow is excepted over much of the southern High Plains and west TX. Snowfall and much colder temperatures associated with building high pressure will keep winds relatively light, temperatures cool and humidity high over fuels of limited receptiveness to large-fire spread. Thus, fire-weather concerns are minimal over much of the CONUS. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

MD 2014 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 582... FOR SOUTHWEST OK...SOUTHWEST AR...NORTHEAST/CENTRAL TX
Mesoscale Discussion 2014 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1141 AM CST Tue Dec 13 2022 Areas affected...Southwest OK...Southwest AR...Northeast/Central TX Concerning...Tornado Watch 582... Valid 131741Z - 131945Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 582 continues. SUMMARY...The threat for all severe hazards, including tornadoes, continues from far southeast OK/southwest AR across northeast TX into central TX. DISCUSSION...Recent surface analysis places a triple point low about 25 miles west of PRX, in the vicinity of the ongoing tornado-producing storm near Lamar County TX and Choctaw and McCurtain Counties in OK. Mesoscale enhancement of lift and shear is likely contributing to the persistence of this storm as it continues through a less favorable thermodynamic environment. A cold front extends southwestward from this low back through central TX. A few stronger storms have recently developed in the vicinity of this front over McLennan and Hill Counties. Undercutting character of the front suggests that hail is likely the predominant severe threat with these storms. Showers have also begun to deepen farther east in Freestone County and vicinity, with some lightning recently observed. These storms appear to be well placed within the warm sector for further intensification, although storm interactions could mitigate this process somewhat. Vertical shear remains strong and any storms that can persist and mature within this environment could become supercells capable of all severe hazards, including tornadoes. ..Mosier.. 12/13/2022 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...SHV...TSA...HGX...FWD... LAT...LON 31299759 33339574 34149512 33549375 31839431 30879617 31299759 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CST Tue Dec 13 2022 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN LOUISIANA...SOUTHERN/CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...SOUTHERN ALABAMA...AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Tornadoes and damaging winds are expected Wednesday over parts of southern Louisiana, southern/central Mississippi, southern Alabama and the western Florida Panhandle. A few strong tornadoes may occur. ...Lower Mississippi Valley into the Southeast... A large upper cyclone will encompass much of the central CONUS on Wednesday, with a rather strong mid-level jet expected to overspread much of the lower/mid MS Valley and the Southeast through the period. An embedded mid-level perturbation is forecast to advance across the southern Plains to the lower MS Valley/Mid-South by Wednesday evening. This feature should encourage a weak surface low to develop northeastward from coastal southern LA to western TN/KY in the same time frame. Rich low-level moisture will attempt to return northward through the day across the central Gulf Coast states ahead of a cold front, but persistent surface ridging should hinder the northward advance of the related surface warm front across central AL/GA. A broken line of thunderstorms will likely be ongoing at the start of the period Wednesday morning across parts of southern LA into southern/central MS in association with strong low-level warm advection. A threat for tornadoes and damaging winds should continue with this activity Wednesday morning, as embedded supercells encounter increasing low-level moisture and instability as filtered diurnal heating occurs. The thermodynamic environment across this region should gradually improve through the day, with MLCAPE perhaps reaching as high as 1000-1500 J/kg in a narrow zone ahead of the morning activity. Current expectations are for convection to gradually increase in coverage and intensity Wednesday afternoon from southeastern LA into southern MS. Deep-layer shear will be more than strong enough to support supercells, and a strengthening south-southwesterly low-level jet will aid updraft rotation as effective SRH increases and hodographs become enlarged. The threat for tornadoes will likely increase across this region as well Wednesday afternoon and evening, especially if convection can remain somewhat discrete ahead of the eastward-advancing cold front. A few strong tornadoes appear possible given the strength of the low-level flow, and as near surface winds potentially back to south-southeasterly as the surface low develops across MS. Any outflow boundary from the morning convection may serve to focus this strong tornado potential. Otherwise, scattered damaging winds and isolated large hail will also be a possibility as thunderstorms spread eastward across southern AL and the FL Panhandle Wednesday evening/night. The tornado threat will likely continue eastward across these areas as well, with both strong low-level and deep-layer shear present to organize updrafts. ..Gleason.. 12/13/2022 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CST Tue Dec 13 2022 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN LOUISIANA...SOUTHERN/CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...SOUTHERN ALABAMA...AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Tornadoes and damaging winds are expected Wednesday over parts of southern Louisiana, southern/central Mississippi, southern Alabama and the western Florida Panhandle. A few strong tornadoes may occur. ...Lower Mississippi Valley into the Southeast... A large upper cyclone will encompass much of the central CONUS on Wednesday, with a rather strong mid-level jet expected to overspread much of the lower/mid MS Valley and the Southeast through the period. An embedded mid-level perturbation is forecast to advance across the southern Plains to the lower MS Valley/Mid-South by Wednesday evening. This feature should encourage a weak surface low to develop northeastward from coastal southern LA to western TN/KY in the same time frame. Rich low-level moisture will attempt to return northward through the day across the central Gulf Coast states ahead of a cold front, but persistent surface ridging should hinder the northward advance of the related surface warm front across central AL/GA. A broken line of thunderstorms will likely be ongoing at the start of the period Wednesday morning across parts of southern LA into southern/central MS in association with strong low-level warm advection. A threat for tornadoes and damaging winds should continue with this activity Wednesday morning, as embedded supercells encounter increasing low-level moisture and instability as filtered diurnal heating occurs. The thermodynamic environment across this region should gradually improve through the day, with MLCAPE perhaps reaching as high as 1000-1500 J/kg in a narrow zone ahead of the morning activity. Current expectations are for convection to gradually increase in coverage and intensity Wednesday afternoon from southeastern LA into southern MS. Deep-layer shear will be more than strong enough to support supercells, and a strengthening south-southwesterly low-level jet will aid updraft rotation as effective SRH increases and hodographs become enlarged. The threat for tornadoes will likely increase across this region as well Wednesday afternoon and evening, especially if convection can remain somewhat discrete ahead of the eastward-advancing cold front. A few strong tornadoes appear possible given the strength of the low-level flow, and as near surface winds potentially back to south-southeasterly as the surface low develops across MS. Any outflow boundary from the morning convection may serve to focus this strong tornado potential. Otherwise, scattered damaging winds and isolated large hail will also be a possibility as thunderstorms spread eastward across southern AL and the FL Panhandle Wednesday evening/night. The tornado threat will likely continue eastward across these areas as well, with both strong low-level and deep-layer shear present to organize updrafts. ..Gleason.. 12/13/2022 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CST Tue Dec 13 2022 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN LOUISIANA...SOUTHERN/CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...SOUTHERN ALABAMA...AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Tornadoes and damaging winds are expected Wednesday over parts of southern Louisiana, southern/central Mississippi, southern Alabama and the western Florida Panhandle. A few strong tornadoes may occur. ...Lower Mississippi Valley into the Southeast... A large upper cyclone will encompass much of the central CONUS on Wednesday, with a rather strong mid-level jet expected to overspread much of the lower/mid MS Valley and the Southeast through the period. An embedded mid-level perturbation is forecast to advance across the southern Plains to the lower MS Valley/Mid-South by Wednesday evening. This feature should encourage a weak surface low to develop northeastward from coastal southern LA to western TN/KY in the same time frame. Rich low-level moisture will attempt to return northward through the day across the central Gulf Coast states ahead of a cold front, but persistent surface ridging should hinder the northward advance of the related surface warm front across central AL/GA. A broken line of thunderstorms will likely be ongoing at the start of the period Wednesday morning across parts of southern LA into southern/central MS in association with strong low-level warm advection. A threat for tornadoes and damaging winds should continue with this activity Wednesday morning, as embedded supercells encounter increasing low-level moisture and instability as filtered diurnal heating occurs. The thermodynamic environment across this region should gradually improve through the day, with MLCAPE perhaps reaching as high as 1000-1500 J/kg in a narrow zone ahead of the morning activity. Current expectations are for convection to gradually increase in coverage and intensity Wednesday afternoon from southeastern LA into southern MS. Deep-layer shear will be more than strong enough to support supercells, and a strengthening south-southwesterly low-level jet will aid updraft rotation as effective SRH increases and hodographs become enlarged. The threat for tornadoes will likely increase across this region as well Wednesday afternoon and evening, especially if convection can remain somewhat discrete ahead of the eastward-advancing cold front. A few strong tornadoes appear possible given the strength of the low-level flow, and as near surface winds potentially back to south-southeasterly as the surface low develops across MS. Any outflow boundary from the morning convection may serve to focus this strong tornado potential. Otherwise, scattered damaging winds and isolated large hail will also be a possibility as thunderstorms spread eastward across southern AL and the FL Panhandle Wednesday evening/night. The tornado threat will likely continue eastward across these areas as well, with both strong low-level and deep-layer shear present to organize updrafts. ..Gleason.. 12/13/2022 Read more

MD 2013 CONCERNING BLIZZARD FOR NORTHEAST COLORADO...SOUTHEAST WYOMING...AND THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE
Mesoscale Discussion 2013 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1114 AM CST Tue Dec 13 2022 Areas affected...northeast Colorado...southeast Wyoming...and the Nebraska Panhandle Concerning...Blizzard Valid 131714Z - 132015Z SUMMARY...A blizzard is ongoing across portions of the central High Plains with sustained winds of 30-35 mph and gusts to 50 mph, heavy snow, and visibility less than 1/4 mile. DISCUSSION...17Z surface analysis shows a ~990mb surface low near the northwest Kansas/southwest Nebraska border with a significant deformation zone to the west with moderate to heavy snowfall. In addition, a tight pressure gradient on the western periphery of this surface low has led to very strong winds of 30 to 40 mph with gusts over 50 mph. These conditions have combined for very low visibility with numerous observation sites at less than 1/4 mile. Expect blizzard conditions to continue to the west/northwest of this surface low as it lifts northeast through the day. This should expand blizzard conditions into western South Dakota and eastern Wyoming later this afternoon. ..Bentley.. 12/13/2022 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...GLD...PUB...BOU...CYS... LAT...LON 40360489 41770452 42950279 43070197 42060084 40880183 39770150 38800153 38600251 39380419 39960471 40360489 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1034 AM CST Tue Dec 13 2022 Valid 131700Z - 141200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes to the ongoing forecast. ..Wendt.. 12/13/2022 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0150 AM CST Tue Dec 13 2022/ ...Synopsis... In the mid-levels, an anomalously deep cyclone is forecast to be located over the central Plains before slowly drifting northeastward tonight. At the surface, a sub-1000 mb low and strong westerly surface pressure gradients will support 20-30 mph winds across the southern and central High Plains. However, much cooler temperatures, precipitation and increasing humidity will likely temper area fuels such that large-fire spread is unlikely. Thus, fire-weather concerns across much of the CONUS are not expected. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1034 AM CST Tue Dec 13 2022 Valid 131700Z - 141200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes to the ongoing forecast. ..Wendt.. 12/13/2022 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0150 AM CST Tue Dec 13 2022/ ...Synopsis... In the mid-levels, an anomalously deep cyclone is forecast to be located over the central Plains before slowly drifting northeastward tonight. At the surface, a sub-1000 mb low and strong westerly surface pressure gradients will support 20-30 mph winds across the southern and central High Plains. However, much cooler temperatures, precipitation and increasing humidity will likely temper area fuels such that large-fire spread is unlikely. Thus, fire-weather concerns across much of the CONUS are not expected. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1029 AM CST Tue Dec 13 2022 Valid 131630Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT FROM EAST TEXAS TO PARTS OF LOUISIANA AND MISSISSIPPI... ...SUMMARY... Tornadoes (some strong), severe gusts and sporadic large hail are possible from southern Oklahoma and north and east Texas, to parts of Louisiana and Mississippi. ...Synopsis... A 100 knot mid-level jet across West Texas this morning will advance across the Plains and into the Upper Midwest by tonight. At the surface, an area of low pressure will slowly move from northwest Kansas to eastern Nebraska. An occluded front extends from the surface low across northwest Kansas to southeast Oklahoma where it intersects with a warm front. Currently this warm front is oriented more north/south, extending to near Lake Charles, Louisiana, but is expected to orient more northwest/southeast through the day as low-level winds veer. As this occurs, mid to potentially upper 60s dewpoints will advance inland and lead to a more broad warm sector through the day. ...Eastern Texas across central/northern Louisiana... A combination of QLCS and supercell type tornadic circulations have occurred within and slightly ahead of a squall line across southern Oklahoma and north Texas this morning. The northern extent of the threat across southeast Oklahoma has started to wane as the line is being cut off from the better low-level moisture. However, the threat is expected to persist through the morning and early afternoon across northeast Texas where mid 60s dewpoints are already in place and expected to increase through the day amid strengthening low-level flow. The greatest threat will be this evening into the overnight hours from east Texas across Louisiana and into western Mississippi. There is considerable agreement among 12Z CAM guidance for supercells to develop within the uncapped warm sector across east Texas and central Louisiana this afternoon and evening. Most forecast soundings show high temperatures in the 72-73F range at KPOE late this afternoon. However, given at least some broken nature to the upstream cloudcover, would expect temperatures in the mid 70s to be more common. This would lead to MLCAPE in excess of 1500 J/kg south of the warm front. This instability paired with strong low-level shear would pose a threat for strong tornadoes through the afternoon and evening across central Louisiana. ...Eastern/southeastern Louisiana into southwest Mississippi... Late tonight, the cold front is expected to slow across eastern Louisiana with the majority of convection becoming pre-frontal. Despite unfavorable diurnal timing, MLCAPE of 1000 to 1500 is expected to persist as cooling temperatures aloft continue to overspread low-level moisture advection off of the Gulf of Mexico. In addition, an uptick in warm sector storm coverage may occur as some guidance indicates a weak meso-low to develop off the Gulf of Mexico. Favorable hodographs are expected to persist through the overnight period and therefore a tornado threat should continue. An upgrade to higher probabilities was considered due to the expectation for warm sector supercells to develop amid favorable hodographs and a STP of 3-4. However, slightly stronger instability would have been preferred to initiate an upgrade. ..Bentley/Hart.. 12/13/2022 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1029 AM CST Tue Dec 13 2022 Valid 131630Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT FROM EAST TEXAS TO PARTS OF LOUISIANA AND MISSISSIPPI... ...SUMMARY... Tornadoes (some strong), severe gusts and sporadic large hail are possible from southern Oklahoma and north and east Texas, to parts of Louisiana and Mississippi. ...Synopsis... A 100 knot mid-level jet across West Texas this morning will advance across the Plains and into the Upper Midwest by tonight. At the surface, an area of low pressure will slowly move from northwest Kansas to eastern Nebraska. An occluded front extends from the surface low across northwest Kansas to southeast Oklahoma where it intersects with a warm front. Currently this warm front is oriented more north/south, extending to near Lake Charles, Louisiana, but is expected to orient more northwest/southeast through the day as low-level winds veer. As this occurs, mid to potentially upper 60s dewpoints will advance inland and lead to a more broad warm sector through the day. ...Eastern Texas across central/northern Louisiana... A combination of QLCS and supercell type tornadic circulations have occurred within and slightly ahead of a squall line across southern Oklahoma and north Texas this morning. The northern extent of the threat across southeast Oklahoma has started to wane as the line is being cut off from the better low-level moisture. However, the threat is expected to persist through the morning and early afternoon across northeast Texas where mid 60s dewpoints are already in place and expected to increase through the day amid strengthening low-level flow. The greatest threat will be this evening into the overnight hours from east Texas across Louisiana and into western Mississippi. There is considerable agreement among 12Z CAM guidance for supercells to develop within the uncapped warm sector across east Texas and central Louisiana this afternoon and evening. Most forecast soundings show high temperatures in the 72-73F range at KPOE late this afternoon. However, given at least some broken nature to the upstream cloudcover, would expect temperatures in the mid 70s to be more common. This would lead to MLCAPE in excess of 1500 J/kg south of the warm front. This instability paired with strong low-level shear would pose a threat for strong tornadoes through the afternoon and evening across central Louisiana. ...Eastern/southeastern Louisiana into southwest Mississippi... Late tonight, the cold front is expected to slow across eastern Louisiana with the majority of convection becoming pre-frontal. Despite unfavorable diurnal timing, MLCAPE of 1000 to 1500 is expected to persist as cooling temperatures aloft continue to overspread low-level moisture advection off of the Gulf of Mexico. In addition, an uptick in warm sector storm coverage may occur as some guidance indicates a weak meso-low to develop off the Gulf of Mexico. Favorable hodographs are expected to persist through the overnight period and therefore a tornado threat should continue. An upgrade to higher probabilities was considered due to the expectation for warm sector supercells to develop amid favorable hodographs and a STP of 3-4. However, slightly stronger instability would have been preferred to initiate an upgrade. ..Bentley/Hart.. 12/13/2022 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1029 AM CST Tue Dec 13 2022 Valid 131630Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT FROM EAST TEXAS TO PARTS OF LOUISIANA AND MISSISSIPPI... ...SUMMARY... Tornadoes (some strong), severe gusts and sporadic large hail are possible from southern Oklahoma and north and east Texas, to parts of Louisiana and Mississippi. ...Synopsis... A 100 knot mid-level jet across West Texas this morning will advance across the Plains and into the Upper Midwest by tonight. At the surface, an area of low pressure will slowly move from northwest Kansas to eastern Nebraska. An occluded front extends from the surface low across northwest Kansas to southeast Oklahoma where it intersects with a warm front. Currently this warm front is oriented more north/south, extending to near Lake Charles, Louisiana, but is expected to orient more northwest/southeast through the day as low-level winds veer. As this occurs, mid to potentially upper 60s dewpoints will advance inland and lead to a more broad warm sector through the day. ...Eastern Texas across central/northern Louisiana... A combination of QLCS and supercell type tornadic circulations have occurred within and slightly ahead of a squall line across southern Oklahoma and north Texas this morning. The northern extent of the threat across southeast Oklahoma has started to wane as the line is being cut off from the better low-level moisture. However, the threat is expected to persist through the morning and early afternoon across northeast Texas where mid 60s dewpoints are already in place and expected to increase through the day amid strengthening low-level flow. The greatest threat will be this evening into the overnight hours from east Texas across Louisiana and into western Mississippi. There is considerable agreement among 12Z CAM guidance for supercells to develop within the uncapped warm sector across east Texas and central Louisiana this afternoon and evening. Most forecast soundings show high temperatures in the 72-73F range at KPOE late this afternoon. However, given at least some broken nature to the upstream cloudcover, would expect temperatures in the mid 70s to be more common. This would lead to MLCAPE in excess of 1500 J/kg south of the warm front. This instability paired with strong low-level shear would pose a threat for strong tornadoes through the afternoon and evening across central Louisiana. ...Eastern/southeastern Louisiana into southwest Mississippi... Late tonight, the cold front is expected to slow across eastern Louisiana with the majority of convection becoming pre-frontal. Despite unfavorable diurnal timing, MLCAPE of 1000 to 1500 is expected to persist as cooling temperatures aloft continue to overspread low-level moisture advection off of the Gulf of Mexico. In addition, an uptick in warm sector storm coverage may occur as some guidance indicates a weak meso-low to develop off the Gulf of Mexico. Favorable hodographs are expected to persist through the overnight period and therefore a tornado threat should continue. An upgrade to higher probabilities was considered due to the expectation for warm sector supercells to develop amid favorable hodographs and a STP of 3-4. However, slightly stronger instability would have been preferred to initiate an upgrade. ..Bentley/Hart.. 12/13/2022 Read more

WW 0581 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 581 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 S DAL TO 30 SE GYI. ..MOSIER..12/13/22 ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...FWD... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 581 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC139-147-231-257-397-131740- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ELLIS FANNIN HUNT KAUFMAN ROCKWALL THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0581 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 581 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 S DAL TO 30 SE GYI. ..MOSIER..12/13/22 ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...FWD... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 581 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC139-147-231-257-397-131740- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ELLIS FANNIN HUNT KAUFMAN ROCKWALL THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0581 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 581 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 S DAL TO 30 SE GYI. ..MOSIER..12/13/22 ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...FWD... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 581 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC139-147-231-257-397-131740- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ELLIS FANNIN HUNT KAUFMAN ROCKWALL THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1204 PM CST Mon Dec 12 2022 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes to the ongoing forecast. ..Wendt.. 12/12/2022 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0157 AM CST Mon Dec 12 2022/ ...Synopsis... As the upper cyclone continues east Tuesday, cooler air and precipitation are expected to suppress fire weather concerns across the southern/central Rockies and high Plains. Westerly flow in the wake of the surface cold front may remain strong over portions of far southeastern CO northern NM and the western TX/OK Panhandles. However, moderating fuels and near freezing temperatures are unlikely to be supportive of significant fire spread. Thus, fire-weather concerns are low and no areas will be assessed. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

No watches are valid as of Mon Dec 12 18:06:02 UTC 2022.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Mon Dec 12 18:06:02 UTC 2022.

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1122 AM CST Mon Dec 12 2022 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EAST TEXAS THROUGH NORTHERN/CENTRAL LA INTO FAR SOUTHWEST MS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of all severe hazards -- including tornadoes -- are possible from parts of east Texas to the Lower Mississippi Valley area Tuesday and Tuesday night. ...Synopsis... A strong shortwave trough is forecast to rotate through the deep cyclonic flow in place across the western CONUS, contributing to the development of a mature mid-latitude cyclone over the northern/central Plains. Strong mid-level flow will accompany this shortwave, with a belt of 100-120 kt 500-mb winds likely stretching from the southern High Plains into the Mid MO Valley on Tuesday afternoon. A deep surface low, resulting from late Monday/early Tuesday cyclogenesis, will likely be near the CO/KS/NE border intersection Tuesday morning. Overall evolution of the system will take this low northeastward across central NE as it occludes. An associated triple point is expected to begin the period near the central KS/OK border before then moving eastward with time. The cold front extending south of this triple point will push eastward throughout the day, likely extending from northwest AR southwestward through the Brazos Valley/central TX Coastal Plain at 00Z Wednesday. Continued eastward progression is anticipated Tuesday night into early Wednesday morning, and the front is forecast to extend from the AR/TN border vicinity southwestward into the Lower Sabine River Valley/TX Golden Triangle region 12Z Wednesday. ...Central/East TX eastward into southern/western MS... Synoptic-scale evolution described in the synopsis will contribute to moderate moisture advection across the southern Plains and Lower MS Valley ahead of the approaching cold front. Expectation is for line a showers and thunderstorms to be ongoing along the front from southern KS into central TX early Tuesday morning. Low-levels will be moist but relatively cool, contributing to some uncertainty regarding if these early storms will be surface based. Forecast hodographs show large low-level curvature and ample storm-relative helicity (and streamwise vorticity) to support a QLCS tornado threat with any surface-based storms. Robust wind fields and fast storm motion will also contribute to a risk for strong wind gusts. Thunderstorms are expected to continue along the front as it continues eastward into more of east TX and eastern OK, although some weakening may occur as the forcing for ascent becomes displaced farther northward throughout the morning and afternoon. Even so, brief tornadoes and strong gusts will be remain possible. A reinvigoration of storms along and ahead the front is anticipated later during the afternoon and into the early evening as the front moves into the more thermodynamically favorable environment of east TX and western LA. Some of the guidance even hints at a transition to more of a discrete mode across central portions of far east TX and far west-central LA. Vertically veering wind profiles will still be in place, and a more discrete mode would favor supercells capable of all severe hazards, including tornadoes. One or two strong tornadoes may occur. The general trend for storms both along the cold front and just ahead of it is expected to continue eastward Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. The threat for tornadoes and strong wind gusts will continue across the Lower MS Valley, where ample low-level moisture increases the likelihood for surface-based storms. Strong wind gusts are also possible farther north through the Mid-South, where proximity to the triple point and stronger low/mid-level flow will increase the potential for wind gusts capable of penetrating the low-level stable layer expected to be in place. ..Mosier.. 12/12/2022 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1012 AM CST Mon Dec 12 2022 Valid 121630Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT FROM WESTERN KANSAS SOUTHWARD ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA INTO WESTERN NORTH TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Occasional damaging winds, isolated large hail, and a couple of tornadoes will be possible tonight from western Kansas across western/central Oklahoma into northwest Texas. ...KS/OK/Northwest TX... Morning water vapor imagery shows a broad upper trough rotating eastward across the western states, with an intense 100+ knot mid-level jet max moving into northwest Mexico. This jet will nose into the high plains of eastern NM/CO and western TX/OK/KS tonight. Ahead of the trough, surface dewpoints in the 50s will spread into much of KS/OK/TX, with 60s as far north as the Red River. This will lead to rapid thunderstorm development after dark. By early evening, the surface dryline is forecast to extend from near AMA northward to west of GLD. Strong large scale forcing associated with the approaching upper jet will overspread the dryline after 03z, leading to rapid convective development. Initial storms will be in limited low-level moisture, but cold temperatures aloft and steep lapse rates may be sufficient for a few intense storms capable of isolated severe hail/wind and perhaps a tornado or two. As the evening progresses and the low-level jet intensifies to 50+ knots, the storms along the dryline will become more widespread/organized. Linear convective structures capable of damaging wind gusts and embedded, brief tornadoes are expected. This activity will track eastward across much of western/south-central OK and western North TX through 12z Tuesday morning. ..Hart/Bentley.. 12/12/2022 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1010 AM CST Mon Dec 12 2022 Valid 121700Z - 131200Z No changes to the ongoing forecast. ..Wendt.. 12/12/2022 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0155 AM CST Mon Dec 12 2022/ ...Synopsis... As a deep mid-level cyclone begins to eject eastward over the southern and central Rockies, strong southwesterly flow aloft will overspread the High Plains. A strong lee low will aid in the development of strong southwesterly flow ahead of a cold front moving across eastern CO and western KS through the afternoon. Widespread gusts of 25-35 mph are possible from southeastern CO into northern NM and western KS. Some downslope component may result in adiabtic drying behind a surface pressure trough lowering afternoon RH values to near 20%. However, cloud cover and increasing moisture will likely keep humidity values marginal. While not overly favorable, suppressed humidity values overlapping with strong surface gusts within modestly dry fuels may support a few hours of elevated fire-weather conditions. Precipitation and the passage of the cold front will quickly end fire concerns near sunset. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more