Severe Storms

No watches are valid as of Sun Feb 12 19:30:02 UTC 2023.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sun Feb 12 19:30:02 UTC 2023.

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1118 AM CST Sun Feb 12 2023 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for severe thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S. Monday through Monday night. ...Synopsis... Models indicate that mid-level ridging centered over the southern mid-latitude eastern Pacific may become a bit more suppressed during this period, as short waves begin to a amplify within a prominent belt of westerlies on its northern periphery. Near the leading edge of this regime, it appears that digging larger-scale mid-level troughing will evolve across the Pacific Northwest through northern Great Basin vicinity, as a couple of smaller-scale perturbations progress inland downstream of building mid-level ridging near 140W. As this occurs, a significant mid-level low, initially migrating northeastward near the western Sonora/Arizona border, is forecast to accelerate across the southern Rockies into the southern Great Plains by late Monday night. Downstream, a preceding mid-level low emerging from the Southwest likely will accelerate east-northeastward, away from the Mid Atlantic coast, ahead of another short wave trough digging east-southeast of the Upper Great Lakes region. In response to these developments, a cold front, trailing the surface cyclone accompanying the lead mid-level low, is expected to stall and weaken across the Bahamas/Caribbean/into western Gulf of Mexico vicinity. And the center of cold surface ridging likely will shift from the northern Gulf coast vicinity into the Southeast, while surface troughing deepens to the lee of the Rockies. A moistening boundary layer over the western Gulf of Mexico will begin to advect northward on a developing southerly return flow. However, in the wake of the recent cold intrusion, boundary-layer moisture characterized by surface dew points in excess of 55 F may not reach areas north of Deep South Texas until Monday night, and it appears that this will be mostly beneath warm, dry and capping lower/mid tropospheric layers. ...Pacific Coast into Great Plains... Weak destabilization beneath mid-level cold pools, including 500 mb temperatures near or below -30C, may contribute to scattered convective development which may become capable of producing lighting across parts of the Pacific Northwest, and the Southwestern Deserts into the southern Rockies Monday into Monday night. East of the Rockies, it appears that warm, dry lower/mid tropospheric layers will largely inhibit thunderstorm development in association with the boundary-layer moistening accompanying the Gulf return flow. Based on NAM and Rapid Refresh forecast soundings, the extent to which moistening (of lower latitude eastern Pacific origins) aloft can contribute to destabilization supportive of convection capable of producing lightning also remains rather unclear. At this point, forecast soundings which might become marginally conducive to scattered weak thunderstorm development seem mostly confined to portions of the Texas South Plains and Big Country, near the leading edge of the stronger mid-level forcing for ascent and cooling associated with the low emerging from the Southwest. ..Kerr.. 02/12/2023 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1037 AM CST Sun Feb 12 2023 Valid 121700Z - 131200Z Winds of 15 to 20 mph with dewpoints in the upper teens are already being observed across the TX/OK Panhandles and into western Oklahoma. As temperatures warm, elevated fire weather conditions are expected and should persist through the afternoon. No changes were made to the ongoing Elevated delineation. ..Bentley.. 02/12/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1245 AM CST Sun Feb 12 2023/ ...Synopsis... A shortwave advancing across the Central Plains on Sunday will bring increased west to northwesterly flow across portions of Oklahoma and Texas. Afternoon winds sustained around 10-15 mph (gusting up to 25 mph) will coincide with a region of afternoon minimum relative humidity around 20-25 percent. Given the dry and breezy conditions on Saturday, a lack of recent precipitation, and expected sustained dry and windy conditions on Sunday, fuels will likely become modestly receptive to fire spread. As such, an Elevated delineation is appropriate across the Texas Panhandle northward into central Oklahoma. Within this region, the HREF ensemble shows around a 70 percent chance of Elevated fire weather conditions through the afternoon Sunday. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1023 AM CST Sun Feb 12 2023 Valid 121630Z - 131200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible through midday over the Tidewater region of North Carolina and southeastern Virginia, and late tonight in parts of Arizona. ...Synopsis... A closed midlevel low and associated surface cyclone will move across the Carolinas today and offshore by tonight. The unstable surface warm sector is already confined to offshore waters east of the Outer Banks, though some elevated convection with isolated lightning flashes will still be possible today across northeastern NC/southeastern VA. Farther west, another closed low will move east-southeastward toward northern Baja and the lower CO River Valley. Low-midlevel moisture will remain limited with this system, though the combination of midlevel cooling and modest moistening of the column may become sufficient for the development of weak buoyancy and the potential for isolated lightning flashes in southwest AZ. ..Thompson/Lyons.. 02/12/2023 Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0214 PM CST Sat Feb 11 2023 Valid 112000Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN FLORIDA... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorm development is still possible across parts of northern Florida late this afternoon and evening. A couple of these could become severe and pose a risk for producing locally damaging wind gusts and perhaps a tornado or two. ...20Z Update... Latest model output suggests that the modest surface cyclone over the northeastern Gulf of Mexico (and approaching the Panama City/Apalachicola vicinity at 20Z) may deepen a bit further, while occluding and migrating inland across the Florida Panhandle into southwestern Georgia and adjacent portions of Alabama late this afternoon and evening. It is possible that the point of occlusion could provide a focus for intensifying thunderstorm development near/north of Gainesville toward the Jacksonville vicinity by early evening. However, cloud cover and precipitation from the remnants of weakening convection spreading off the northeastern Gulf of Mexico continues to inhibit boundary-layer destabilization across much of northern Florida into southern Georgia, where vertical shear profiles near a strengthening southerly 850 mb jet (40-50+ kt) are becoming potentially conducive to supercells. Otherwise, a pre-cold frontal convective band offshore of coastal areas to the north of Tampa might still intensify a bit during the next couple of hours as it approaches the coastal waters. This activity could pose a risk for strong wind gusts, but the lingering more stable boundary-layer over the coastal waters probably will tend to weaken the stronger storms embedded within the band, as they migrate inland by early this evening. Thereafter, secondary frontal wave development near and east-northeast of Georgia coastal areas probably will become the primary focus for convective development by the 01-03Z. Strong storms are still expected to remain confined to the better boundary-layer instability over the offshore waters. ..Kerr.. 02/11/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1028 AM CST Sat Feb 11 2023/ ...Synopsis... An active mid-level flow regime is expected to continue across the CONUS through the forecast period with several large-scale features of interest. Morning water-vapor imagery showed two deepening upper lows; one over the central CA Coast, with a second over eastern TX and southwestern LA moving southeastward into the northern Gulf Of Mexico. Associated height falls and diffluent flow aloft already are underway over the northern Gulf and most of the mainland Southeast, and will spread eastward, with the upper low, to the southern Atlantic Coast this evening/overnight. At the surface, a frontal wave tied to a cold front over the Gulf will translate northeastward, deepening into an established surface cyclone across the western FL panhandle and southern AL tonight. A warm front observed over the central Peninsula should gradually lift north with the surface low drawing mid 60s F surface dewpoints north through this afternoon. ...Northern FL into far southern GA... Morning radar and visible imagery showed widespread cloud debris and precipitation ongoing north of the surface warm front analyzed north of Tampa to near KEVB. Additional convection over the eastern Gulf should spread northeastward toward the FL Panhandle and western coast as the low deepens. Some uncertainty with diurnal destabilization remains given the extent of cloud debris over FL and additional storms farther west. However, clear skies and surface dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s F should gradually expand northward as evidence by wind gradually veering near the front over the last couple of hours. Though lapse rates from the 12z RAOBS remain weak, around 6 C/km, adequate heating and moistening should support 500-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE development through the afternoon along with weak MLCINH. Strong mid-level flow ahead of the deepening upper low should also support 40-50 kt of effective shear across the northern third of FL as evidence by area RAP soundings. Enlarging low-level hodographs with backed low-level flow may also support storm scale rotation with 100-250 m2/s2 of effective SRH. Should sufficient destabilization continue this afternoon, the favorable CAPE/shear space may support organized storms including a few supercells and short line segments capable of damaging wind gusts and a couple tornadoes. Given the weak MLCINH environment, CAMs show numerous potential storm interactions which may limit the duration of any sustained organized storms. Confidence in severe potential decreases with southern extent as the main synoptic forcing for ascent is expected to pass farther north, focused near the FL/GA line later this evening. However, at least isolated severe potential may develop within the unstable but more modestly sheared airmass farther south near the Atlantic Coast. Here, more isolated convection may develop along remnant outflow and seabreaze boundaries, with some potential for damaging gusts and perhaps a brief tornado. Read more

No watches are valid as of Sat Feb 11 20:19:01 UTC 2023.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sat Feb 11 20:19:01 UTC 2023.

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0157 PM CST Sat Feb 11 2023 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z Dry and breezy conditions today are drying fine fuels across the TX/OK Panhandles and western Oklahoma. The Elevated delineation remains in an appropriate location for the expected dry and windy conditions on Sunday. Therefore, no changes were necessary. ..Bentley.. 02/11/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0138 AM CST Sat Feb 11 2023/ ...Synopsis... A weak shortwave will eject out across the Central Plains on Sunday. Mid-level flow will increase with response of the 850 mb and surface winds out of the west and northwest. Afternoon surface winds sustained at 15-20 mph will be possible (with locally higher gusts to 20-25 mph). Deterministic models show some spread in how low afternoon relative humidity reductions will be. HREF ensemble guidance provides better confidence (around 70-80 percent) of at least Elevated fire weather conditions from the Texas Panhandle northward into north central Oklahoma. Breezy and dry conditions Saturday and Sunday, along with less rain/snowfall recently across this region may allow fuels to become more receptive with more sustained/widespread Elevated conditions occurring on Sunday. As such, an Elevated delineation was included weighted to highest confidence region within HREF guidance. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1120 AM CST Sat Feb 11 2023 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EARLY SUNDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH CAROLINA COASTAL AREAS... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms posing some risk for severe weather may approach, and perhaps spread across, portions of North Carolina coastal areas Sunday morning into early Sunday afternoon, mainly near Outer Banks vicinity. ...Synopsis... Blocking has become a bit more prominent within the mid/upper flow across the southern mid- and subtropical Pacific, near and to the east and north of the Hawaiian Islands. Around the northern periphery of this regime, a number of progressive short wave troughs are embedded within a strong belt of westerlies extending more or less zonally downstream of the northern mid-latitude Pacific, across the Canadian/U.S. border vicinity. This includes one forecast to dig east-southeast of the Canadian Rockies through northwestern Ontario and the upper Great Lakes region by late Sunday night, and another across the British Columbia/Pacific Northwest coast. Within an initially more amplified branch across the southern mid-latitudes, it appears that the center of a significant mid-level low, currently digging along the California coast, will bottom out to the west of northern Baja, before turning inland Sunday night and reaching southwestern Arizona by 12Z Monday. A similar, but deeper, downstream low is forecast to migrate from the Georgia Piedmont across and offshore of the southern Mid Atlantic coast. In association with the lead perturbation, a significant cold front likely will have advanced through much of the Gulf of Mexico and south/east of the Florida Peninsula and Keys by the beginning of the period. Secondary surface cyclogenesis may gradually be underway near the North Carolina coast, but it appears that the more rapid deepening may not occur until later Sunday through Sunday night, offshore of the Mid Atlantic coast. In the wake of the developing cyclone and trailing cold front, generally dry and/or stable conditions will prevail across much of the nation. ...North Carolina coast vicinity... Based on consideration of the various model output, the potential for severe thunderstorm development near and inland of coastal areas early Sunday still appears rather low. This will mostly depend on the evolution of the surface frontal wave/low, which remains a bit uncertain, but could perhaps include a strongly sheared and unstable warm sector boundary layer spreading inland across portions of coastal areas. If this occurs, it probably would be accompanied by a risk for organized severe convection, including supercells. ...Southwest... It appears that stronger destabilization supportive of convection capable of producing lightning, beneath a mid-level cold core including 500 mb temperatures of -28 to -30 C, probably will remain initially offshore of southern California coastal areas. However, Sunday afternoon into Sunday night this may change with cooling aloft along and east of the Peninsular Ranges through the lower Colorado Valley. Destabilization within a downstream warm advection regime across the Mogollon Rim into Colorado Plateau may also become marginally sufficient for scattered weak thunderstorm development. ..Kerr.. 02/11/2023 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1047 AM CST Sat Feb 11 2023 Valid 111700Z - 121200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Sustained winds of 10 to 15 mph have developed across the TX/OK Panhandles with dewpoints in the upper teens to low 20s. Expect winds to continue to strengthen this afternoon. However, fuels remain mostly unfavorable due to recent rainfall in the region. Therefore, no Elevated area is needed. ..Bentley.. 02/11/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1256 AM CST Sat Feb 11 2023/ ...Synopsis... Ridging aloft will continue to shift eastward into the Central Plains on Saturday. An upper-level low will begin to dig southward upstream off the West Coast. Within the Central Plains, a surface high will also shift eastward and gradually lose amplitude as lee troughing and weak cyclogenesis begins to develop east of the Rockies in response to increasing westerly flow aloft. Breezy west to southwest surface winds will develop by Saturday afternoon within a dry post-frontal air mass across much of the Plains. Relative humidity reductions to around 20-25 percent will be possible with winds sustained around 10-20 mph. Patchy Elevated fire weather conditions will be possible from the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles into western Kansas. Fuels are marginal within this region, though the risk of grass fire may be more appreciable. Given the marginal fuels and brief/localized nature of any Elevated fire weather regions, no areas were included with this outlook. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1028 AM CST Sat Feb 11 2023 Valid 111630Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND PORTIONS OF NORTHERN FLORIDA.... ...SUMMARY... Damaging thunderstorm winds and a couple of tornadoes are possible from the eastern Florida Panhandle across northern Florida this afternoon and evening. ...Synopsis... An active mid-level flow regime is expected to continue across the CONUS through the forecast period with several large-scale features of interest. Morning water-vapor imagery showed two deepening upper lows; one over the central CA Coast, with a second over eastern TX and southwestern LA moving southeastward into the northern Gulf Of Mexico. Associated height falls and diffluent flow aloft already are underway over the northern Gulf and most of the mainland Southeast, and will spread eastward, with the upper low, to the southern Atlantic Coast this evening/overnight. At the surface, a frontal wave tied to a cold front over the Gulf will translate northeastward, deepening into an established surface cyclone across the western FL panhandle and southern AL tonight. A warm front observed over the central Peninsula should gradually lift north with the surface low drawing mid 60s F surface dewpoints north through this afternoon. ...Northern FL into far southern GA... Morning radar and visible imagery showed widespread cloud debris and precipitation ongoing north of the surface warm front analyzed north of Tampa to near KEVB. Additional convection over the eastern Gulf should spread northeastward toward the FL Panhandle and western coast as the low deepens. Some uncertainty with diurnal destabilization remains given the extent of cloud debris over FL and additional storms farther west. However, clear skies and surface dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s F should gradually expand northward as evidence by wind gradually veering near the front over the last couple of hours. Though lapse rates from the 12z RAOBS remain weak, around 6 C/km, adequate heating and moistening should support 500-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE development through the afternoon along with weak MLCINH. Strong mid-level flow ahead of the deepening upper low should also support 40-50 kt of effective shear across the northern third of FL as evidence by area RAP soundings. Enlarging low-level hodographs with backed low-level flow may also support storm scale rotation with 100-250 m2/s2 of effective SRH. Should sufficient destabilization continue this afternoon, the favorable CAPE/shear space may support organized storms including a few supercells and short line segments capable of damaging wind gusts and a couple tornadoes. Given the weak MLCINH environment, CAMs show numerous potential storm interactions which may limit the duration of any sustained organized storms. Confidence in severe potential decreases with southern extent as the main synoptic forcing for ascent is expected to pass farther north, focused near the FL/GA line later this evening. However, at least isolated severe potential may develop within the unstable but more modestly sheared airmass farther south near the Atlantic Coast. Here, more isolated convection may develop along remnant outflow and seabreaze boundaries, with some potential for damaging gusts and perhaps a brief tornado. ..Lyons/Thompson.. 02/11/2023 Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0139 PM CST Fri Feb 10 2023 Valid 102000Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA AND FAR SOUTHERN GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible through tonight across north Florida and southeast Georgia. A band of storms currently extends from the GA/FL border southwestward into the northern Gulf of Mexico. Heating ahead of the line has contributed to over 1500 J/kg SBCAPE, beneath front-parallel southwesterlies aloft. Given around 40 kt of effective shear and favorable time of day, a few strong wind gusts may occur. Other storms are expected to move across northern FL this evening, with continued marginal risk of severe. Tornado risk appears minimal given primarily straight hodographs/weak SRH. ..Jewell.. 02/10/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1002 AM CST Fri Feb 10 2023/ ...North FL/southeast GA through tonight... A midlevel shortwave trough will dig southeastward over the southern Plains, and evolve into a closed low over southeast TX by Saturday morning. Clusters/bands of thunderstorms are expected to persist through the forecast period, primarily along a slow-moving front from the northeast Gulf of Mexico across north FL/southeast GA where low-level ascent will be focused. There will be sufficient deep-layer flow/shear (relatively straight hodographs) for some storm organization, while midlevel lapse rates will be modest (close to 6.5 C/km) with surface heating/mixing and boundary-layer dewpoints in the upper 60s supporting MLCAPE near 1000 J/kg this afternoon. Low-level flow/mass response will remain weak through most of the day 1 period, since cyclogenesis will likely be delayed until the day 2 period. Overall, the environment appears marginal for severe storms, with a low-end threat for embedded line segments and/or supercells capable of producing isolated wind damage and perhaps a brief/weak tornado. ...Northern/central CA coast later today into tonight... Gradual evolution from an open wave to a closed low is expected with the midlevel trough that will move southeastward near the northern/central CA later today into tonight. Some shallow convection is expected close to the coast, but the magnitude/depth of buoyancy will be marginal for charge separation/lightning production. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0141 PM CST Fri Feb 10 2023 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes. See previous discussion below. ..Bentley.. 02/10/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0119 AM CST Fri Feb 10 2023/ ...Synopsis... Breezy westerly downslope flow will be possible across the Central Plains and Southern Plains on Saturday. This will allow for relative humidity reductions to around 10-15 percent by the afternoon across the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles. Fuels in this region remain wet from recent rain and snowfall with daytime highs expected to be cool, precluding the need to include any Elevated or Critical delineations. The dry conditions will extend further south into Texas across Big Bend into south-central Texas. Winds in this region are expected to remain much lighter, which will keep fire weather concerns low. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

No watches are valid as of Fri Feb 10 19:43:02 UTC 2023.

MD 0144 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR NORTHERN FL PENINSULA AND FAR SOUTHEASTERN GA
Mesoscale Discussion 0144 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0122 PM CST Fri Feb 10 2023 Areas affected...Northern FL peninsula and far southeastern GA Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 101922Z - 102045Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...A line of strong storms has moved onshore to the northern Florida peninsula, and a few cells have developed ahead of it across northern Florida and far southeastern Georgia. While a few damaging gusts are possible, a weather watch is not anticipated. DISCUSSION...Radar imagery indicate that a line of stronger storms has moved onshore, and a few cells have developed ahead of it across far southeast Georgia and north Florida. These cells are in an environment characterized by weak to modest buoyancy (1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE) and modest deep-layer shear (30-35 kts of effective bulk shear), per mesoanalysis and RAP profiles. The low-level wind shear is relatively poor, with less than 100 m2/s2 of 0-1 km SRH. As the afternoon progresses, expect some clustering and upscale growth before storms move offshore. Given the poor low-level shear and some modestly dry air in the 850-700 mb layer, these clusters may produce a few damaging gusts. Trends will be monitored, but a weather watch is not anticipated at this time. ..Supinie/Thompson.. 02/10/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...TBW...JAX...TAE... LAT...LON 29628146 29398209 29308282 29468335 29868368 30248346 30638286 30898231 31038208 31128157 30998143 30708134 30108124 29628146 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1100 AM CST Fri Feb 10 2023 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA... ...SUMMARY... Several strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from the Florida Panhandle into northern Florida Saturday and Saturday evening. ...Florida Panhandle/Northern Florida... An upper low will deepen Saturday as it travels from the Sabine Valley to the central Gulf Coast by 00Z, reaching GA by Sunday morning. A cyclonically curved 100 kt midlevel speed max ahead of the low and strong height falls will overspread GA/FL after 00Z as 850 mb winds increase to over 40 kts. Meanwhile, a surface low will gradually deepen over the northeastern Gulf and FL Panhandle late in the day, with a stalled front over northern FL. A cold front will also push east across the Gulf of Mexico, approaching the western FL Peninsula after 00Z. Mid to upper 60s F dewpoints are most likely over the land portion of the warm sector, with relatively cool surface temperatures due to ongoing precipitation and clouds. The eastern FL Panhandle portion of the boundary is forecast to move north as a warm front during the day just ahead of the low, resulting in SBCAPE over 500 J/kg over coastal counties. As such, ongoing storms along the intersecting cold front may pose a tornado risk during the day as cells move onshore, especially if surface temperatures can approach 70 F. As the more unstable air continues to push north, a tornado risk may translate eastward across northern FL near and after 00Z. By 06Z, much of the large-scale lift will pivot northeast of the area where the air mass will be too stable for severe storms. ..Jewell.. 02/10/2023 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1035 AM CST Fri Feb 10 2023 Valid 101700Z - 111200Z No changes. See previous discussion below. ..Bentley.. 02/10/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1238 AM CST Fri Feb 10 2023/ ...Synopsis... Breezy west to northwest flow will develop across portions of the southern Plains on Friday afternoon as a surface anticyclone shifts eastward into the central US. Relative humidity reductions to around 20-25 percent and sustained winds around 15-20 mph will be possible within a narrow corridor over south Texas from the Edwards Plateau south to the Rio Grande, supporting an Elevated delineation. Locally critical conditions will be possible for an hour or two, mainly within the northern third of the current D1 Elevated. Given the short duration and marginal state of fuels, the Elevated delineation covers the threat appropriately. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1002 AM CST Fri Feb 10 2023 Valid 101630Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS NORTH FL/SOUTHEAST GA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible through tonight across north Florida and southeast Georgia. ...North FL/southeast GA through tonight... A midlevel shortwave trough will dig southeastward over the southern Plains, and evolve into a closed low over southeast TX by Saturday morning. Clusters/bands of thunderstorms are expected to persist through the forecast period, primarily along a slow-moving front from the northeast Gulf of Mexico across north FL/southeast GA where low-level ascent will be focused. There will be sufficient deep-layer flow/shear (relatively straight hodographs) for some storm organization, while midlevel lapse rates will be modest (close to 6.5 C/km) with surface heating/mixing and boundary-layer dewpoints in the upper 60s supporting MLCAPE near 1000 J/kg this afternoon. Low-level flow/mass response will remain weak through most of the day 1 period, since cyclogenesis will likely be delayed until the day 2 period. Overall, the environment appears marginal for severe storms, with a low-end threat for embedded line segments and/or supercells capable of producing isolated wind damage and perhaps a brief/weak tornado. ...Northern/central CA coast later today into tonight... Gradual evolution from an open wave to a closed low is expected with the midlevel trough that will move southeastward near the northern/central CA later today into tonight. Some shallow convection is expected close to the coast, but the magnitude/depth of buoyancy will be marginal for charge separation/lightning production. ..Thompson/Supinie.. 02/10/2023 Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0143 PM CST Thu Feb 09 2023 Valid 092000Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM WESTERN GEORGIA INTO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... A couple of strong thunderstorms are possible in a corridor from western Georgia into southeastern Alabama and the Florida Panhandle later today. Some storms may produce strong wind gusts. Little change was made to the existing outlook with a minor decrease in probabilities across northern areas of GA where instability will be less. Otherwise, storms may gradually increase after 00Z near the front, where MLCAPE will exceed 250 J/kg with modest shear/southwesterlies aloft. ..Jewell.. 02/09/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1022 AM CST Thu Feb 09 2023/ ...Synopsis... On the leading edge of an amplified belt of westerlies emanating from the mid-latitude Pacific, a vigorous short wave trough is forecast to continue digging to the lee of the southern Rockies. In its wake, the center of a prominent cold surface ridge will continue to build south-southeastward across the southern Rockies vicinity, with the leading edge of the cold intrusion likely reaching the lower Rio Grande Valley by late tonight. A preceding cold front is expected to steadily progress into and across the Appalachians and northwestern Gulf of Mexico, in the wake of a broad and relatively deep, occluding cyclone. This cyclone is accompanying a significant mid-level impulse forecast to accelerate northeast of the lower Great Lakes region through the St. Lawrence Valley, as an upstream short wave trough digs into the Upper Midwest, and fairly prominent mid-level ridging (centered near the Bahamas) is maintained near/east of the southeastern Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic Seaboard. ...Eastern U.S.... A combination of weak/limited low-level moisture return, relatively warm mid-levels with weak lapse rates, and in some areas a residual near-surface stable layer will tend to minimize the risk for thunderstorm development in the warm sector of the surface cyclone. One area where at least some model output (perhaps most notably the Rapid Refresh) suggests that weak boundary-layer destabilization may occur is a narrow pre-cold frontal corridor across the Piedmont of east central Alabama into northern Georgia. It appears that this will largely hinge on sufficient thinning and breaks of current cloud cover, but with some insolation the environment may become conducive to scattered thunderstorm development. If this occurs, downward mixing of 30-50 kt south-southwesterly to southwesterly flow in the 850-500 mb layer may contribute to a risk for localized potentially damaging wind gusts. Otherwise, with better boundary-layer moisture and instability now generally offshore, weakening lower/mid-tropospheric wind fields across eastern Gulf coastal areas appear to be leading to diminishing convective potential inland of the coast through the remainder of the period. Read more