Severe Storms

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Wed May 10 22:00:06 UTC 2023.

WW 0207 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 207 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..DEAN..05/10/23 ATTN...WFO...BOU...GLD...PUB...LBF... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 207 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS COC001-005-017-031-035-039-041-063-073-075-087-095-115-119-121- 123-125-102140- CO . COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS ARAPAHOE CHEYENNE DENVER DOUGLAS ELBERT EL PASO KIT CARSON LINCOLN LOGAN MORGAN PHILLIPS SEDGWICK TELLER WASHINGTON WELD YUMA KSC023-039-065-137-153-179-181-193-102140- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHEYENNE DECATUR GRAHAM NORTON RAWLINS SHERIDAN SHERMAN THOMAS NEC029-057-063-085-087-135-145-102140- Read more

WW 207 TORNADO CO KS NE 101955Z - 110300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 207 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 255 PM CDT Wed May 10 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Northeast and East-Central Colorado Northwest Kansas Southwest Nebraska * Effective this Wednesday afternoon and evening from 255 PM until 1000 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes possible Scattered large hail likely with isolated very large hail events to 3 inches in diameter possible Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible SUMMARY...Severe storms are expected to develop and increase this afternoon, initially near the Colorado Front Range as well as northwest Kansas along/north of a front. This will include supercells capable of large hail and a few tornadoes, along with the potential for damaging winds with storms on the High Plains of eastern Colorado/northwest Kansas/southwest Nebraska. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 70 statute miles north and south of a line from 10 miles south southwest of Denver CO to 40 miles east southeast of Mccook NE. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 3 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 22020. ...Guyer Read more

WW 0208 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 208 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..DEAN..05/10/23 ATTN...WFO...PUB...GLD...DDC...ABQ...AMA... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 208 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS COC009-011-025-055-061-071-089-099-101-102140- CO . COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BACA BENT CROWLEY HUERFANO KIOWA LAS ANIMAS OTERO PROWERS PUEBLO KSC063-071-075-109-187-199-203-102140- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE GOVE GREELEY HAMILTON LOGAN STANTON WALLACE WICHITA NMC007-021-037-059-102140- NM . NEW MEXICO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE COLFAX HARDING QUAY Read more

WW 208 SEVERE TSTM CO KS NM OK TX 102020Z - 110400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 208 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 320 PM CDT Wed May 10 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Southeast Colorado Western Kansas Northeast New Mexico Western Oklahoma Panhandle Western Texas Panhandle * Effective this Wednesday afternoon and evening from 320 PM until 1100 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...High-based storms including a few supercells will continue to develop near/east of the Front Range and Raton Mesa vicinity, as well as in a somewhat separate corridor into western Kansas. Severe-caliber wind gusts and large hail and the primary hazards. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 75 statute miles east and west of a line from 10 miles south southeast of Tucumcari NM to 50 miles north of Lamar CO. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 207... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 22025. ...Guyer Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0252 PM CDT Wed May 10 2023 Valid 102000Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NORTHEAST COLORADO INTO FAR SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND FAR NORTHWEST KANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of producing tornadoes, large to very large hail, and severe wind gusts remain likely this afternoon and evening along the High Plains. Additionally, more isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible tonight across east Texas and western Louisiana. ...Front Range/High Plains... The forecast remains on track based on recent observations and trends in hi-res guidance. 5% tornado probabilities were expanded slightly across northwest KS where a few cumulus clusters have shown notable vertical development within a recovering boundary layer (where easterly surface winds are enhancing low-level helicity). A significant wind area is introduced for portions of southeast CO into adjacent areas of NM, OK, and KS, where dewpoint depressions over 40 F are noted ahead of developing convection within the higher terrain. These trends suggest the environment is favorable for efficient downward momentum transfer within stronger downdrafts that may result in a couple of 75+ mph gusts. For additional near-term trends, see MCD #754. ...North Dakota... The Marginal area has been extended slightly westward across parts of north-central ND to better align with recent surface and satellite observations, which depict shallow cumulus development along a diffuse surface trough. A few recent runs of hi-res guidance suggest a storm or two may develop within this regime, and modified forecast sounding indicate that locations with temperatures/dewpoints in the mid 70s/upper 50s may feature sufficient buoyancy for effective bulk shear values approaching 30 knots. ..Moore/Leitman.. 05/10/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1135 AM CDT Wed May 10 2023/ ...Front Range/High Plains... An east/northeastward-moving upper trough over Arizona and preceding upper jet exit region will influence the High Plains with a meridional flow pattern into this afternoon and tonight. A lee cyclone will persist over eastern Colorado and the Raton Mesa vicinity with a warm front extending east across northwest Kansas to southeast Nebraska, with the southern High Plains dryline mixing east into a portion of west Texas. A plume of 50s F surface dew points will be maintained to the north of the aforementioned central High Plains front amid persistent easterlies in the lowest 1 km. As large-scale ascent preceding the upper trough overspreads the central to southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains, initial convection will develop over the higher terrain by early afternoon. This activity will spread north-northeastward and increase in coverage through early evening. Several supercells are likely along the Front Range from east-central WY to south-central CO with a primary threat of large hail. Potential will exist for a more intense/long-tracked supercell or two developing off the Palmer Divide towards the Denver metro area and South Platte Valley, where rather enlarged/elongated hodographs coupled with the steep mid-level lapse rate environment could support very large hail and tornadoes. A few slow-moving supercells should be sustained near the dryline/front intersection in the CO/KS/NE border area with a similar very large hail and tornado threat. ...Southern High Plains... While isolated severe wind/hail potential is possible during the late afternoon near the Raton Mesa vicinity, the bulk of severe potential is likely to be delayed until late evening/overnight after the dryline retreats west. This will yield increasing moisture timed with a strengthening low-level jet and greater mid-level DCVA ahead of the Arizona/New Mexico shortwave trough. With a more westerly component to mid-level flow, especially with southern extent, potential will exist for a few supercells capable of large hail and severe wind gusts across the Texas South Plains/Permian Basin. ...Southeast Texas/Louisiana... An MCV over east-central Texas should drift towards the ArkLaTex today. Regenerative, slow-moving deep convection is ongoing along the upper Texas Gulf Coast, with recent scattered development underway to the Louisiana coastal plain. A belt of enhanced low-level winds is consistently progged to spread from just off the Texas coast to the Sabine Valley by afternoon. This would yield enlargement to the low-level hodograph in an otherwise weak deep-layer shear regime. However, given the degree of ongoing convection, diurnal destabilization is expected to be muted. Therefore, some diurnal potential for transient low-level circulations is anticipated but its still unclear whether a more favorable brief tornado and isolated damaging wind corridor can develop. It is possible that the primary severe risk, but still on a relatively isolated basis, occurs late tonight as storms potentially redevelop across far eastern Texas into Louisiana. ...Far northern Minnesota/North Dakota... A low-amplitude shortwave impulse will move east atop the northern extent of the upper ridge near the international border through the afternoon/evening. With the northeast plume of steep mid-level lapse rates impinging on the area, MLCAPE of 500-1500 J/kg should be common from central North Dakota into northwest Minnesota. While the bulk of supercell development should be confined to southern Manitoba, multicell clustering may spread/develop across the international border this evening with a threat for isolated damaging wind and severe hail. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0138 PM CDT Wed May 10 2023 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z No changes to the ongoing forecast. ..Wendt.. 05/10/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0152 AM CDT Wed May 10 2023/ ...Synopsis... As the mid-level trough departs to the east, a belt of stronger southwesterly flow will likely linger over portions of NM and the southern High Plains Thursday. Behind a surface low and ahead of a cold front sweeping east from the Southwest, downslope winds and dry surface conditions may support elevated to near-critical fire-weather conditions Thursday. ...Eastern New Mexico onto the southern High Plains... As the main trough shifts eastward, strong flow over the Rockies will deepen a lee low over the TX Panhandle. Trailing the low, a dryline will keep westerly surface winds breezy over much of eastern NM. Winds should be less potent than days previous as flow weakens, but RH will likely remain nearly as low, 10-15%, during the afternoon. With area fuels remaining dry, elevated fire-weather conditions appear likely Thursday afternoon. There remains considerable uncertainty on the eastern extent and coverage of any critical fire-weather conditions able to develop. The stronger surface winds will gradually weaken from the west as the trough departs. The best overlap with lower RH and dry fuels will remain to the west of the strongest winds through the day. However, some model solutions do suggest potential for a few hours of near-critical conditions across eastern NM, though uncertainty is high. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 PM CDT Wed May 10 2023 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CENTRAL OKLAHOMA INTO NORTHWEST KANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Strong/severe thunderstorms are forecast Thursday across the central and southern Plains, where large hail and a few tornadoes can be expected along with locally damaging winds. Isolated hail/damaging winds are also possible across the lower Mississippi Valley into the Southeastern states. ...Synopsis... A progressive upper-level low is noted translating eastward across the lower CO River Valley in mid-morning water-vapor imagery. Recent guidance has generally captured the progression and amplitude of this wave well over the past 12 hours or so, lending reasonably high confidence in its general evolution over the next 48 hours. This feature is expected to become slightly negatively tilted as it ejects into the southern/central High Plains during the 18-21 UTC period Thursday. The rapid deepening of a lee cyclone over the northern TX Panhandle into western KS will coincide with the eastward mixing of a dryline, which should be draped from southwest KS into western OK and northwest TX by mid-afternoon. The severe weather threat will be concentrated along and east/northeast of this boundary as thunderstorms develop by mid to late afternoon. Along the Gulf Coast, a weak mid-level perturbation, currently over central TX, will migrate east through the day, reaching the lower MS River Valley by peak heating. Thunderstorms developing in the vicinity of this feature will pose a risk for sporadic large hail and damaging winds. ...Central to Southern Plains... Recent surface observations across the southern/central Plains show a plume of rich (mid to upper 60s) dewpoints across much of TX into south-central KS. Poleward moisture advection will increase through Thursday afternoon as the surface low deepens over western KS and the Panhandles region, with widespread mid/upper 60s ahead of the sharpening dryline. Despite the high-quality moisture, mean meridional flow ahead of the low will relegate the steepest mid-level lapse rates (sampled by 12 UTC RAOBs over the High Plains) to western KS. This, in addition to early-morning clouds/showers, will mute the influence of low-level moisture to some degree, but MLCAPE values between 1000-2000 J/kg should be common across the warm sector by midday. 50 knot mid-level flow largely orthogonal to the dryline should overspread KS/OK through the day, resulting in favorable deep-layer shear orientations for discrete convection. Stronger synoptic and mesoscale lift across west/southwest KS will likely result in an arching band of convection, becoming more broken with southeast extent. A second round of storms is possible during the late afternoon/evening hours as a pocket of cold temperatures aloft associated with the upper low traverses western KS. Further south into OK, a combination of more peripheral synoptic lift and slightly stronger capping will limit convective coverage. T-storm development might be locally maximized across southwest to central OK where guidance has been consistently showing a secondary surface low/dryline bulge in latest guidance that may augment forcing for ascent along the dryline. Thunderstorm potential becomes even more conditional with southward extent along the dryline south of the Red River amid stronger capping and weaker ascent. Regardless of coverage, thunderstorms developing across southern KS into OK (and possibly northern TX) will likely take on supercellular characteristics given adequate buoyancy, deep-layer shear, strong effective-layer helicity, and favorable dryline/deep-layer shear vector orientations. All hazards will be possible with these storms, including the potential for very large (2 inch or larger) hail and a significant tornado. ...Lower MS Valley into the Southeast... Scattered thunderstorms will likely be ongoing at the start of the period across the lower MS valley in the vicinity of the mid-level perturbation. This activity will likely intensify through the day amid strong diurnal warming ahead of ongoing convection. Additional thunderstorms are expected along the western FL coast along a diurnally-driven sea breeze, as well as across parts of southwest GA. While buoyancy will be somewhat strong (around 2000-2500 J/kg MLCAPE), modest wind shear suggests intense convection may be somewhat short-lived. Consequently, sporadic large hail and damaging winds will be possible with strong updraft pulses through the day, and perhaps along any organized outflows associated with convective clusters. ..Moore/Leitman.. 05/10/2023 Read more

WW 0205 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 205 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 WNW AVC TO 30 NE RZZ TO 45 ENE ECG. ..THORNTON..05/09/23 ATTN...WFO...MHX...AKQ...RAH... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 205 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NCC013-015-029-031-041-049-053-055-061-065-069-073-077-079-083- 091-095-101-103-107-117-127-131-133-137-139-143-147-163-177-181- 183-185-187-191-195-092340- NC . NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BEAUFORT BERTIE CAMDEN CARTERET CHOWAN CRAVEN CURRITUCK DARE DUPLIN EDGECOMBE FRANKLIN GATES GRANVILLE GREENE HALIFAX HERTFORD HYDE JOHNSTON JONES LENOIR MARTIN NASH NORTHAMPTON ONSLOW PAMLICO PASQUOTANK PERQUIMANS PITT SAMPSON TYRRELL VANCE WAKE WARREN WASHINGTON WAYNE WILSON VAC025-081-117-595-092340- VA . VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

WW 205 SEVERE TSTM NC VA CW 091855Z - 100200Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 205 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 255 PM EDT Tue May 9 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Eastern North Carolina Southern Virginia Coastal Waters * Effective this Tuesday afternoon and evening from 255 PM until 1000 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 65 mph possible SUMMARY...Storms will continue to develop and increase across the region, resulting in a few supercells and organized storm clusters, which will be capable of large hail and damaging winds. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 80 statute miles north and south of a line from 45 miles west northwest of Rocky Mount NC to 25 miles north northeast of Cape Hatteras NC. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 204... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 55 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 29025. ...Guyer Read more

WW 0206 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 206 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0747 ..THORNTON..05/09/23 ATTN...WFO...SGF...ICT...EAX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 206 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC011-021-037-049-091-099-103-107-121-125-133-205-092240- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BOURBON CHEROKEE CRAWFORD ELK JOHNSON LABETTE LEAVENWORTH LINN MIAMI MONTGOMERY NEOSHO WILSON MOC011-013-015-029-037-039-043-057-059-067-077-083-085-097-105- 109-145-167-185-217-225-229-092240- MO . MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARTON BATES BENTON CAMDEN CASS CEDAR CHRISTIAN DADE DALLAS DOUGLAS GREENE HENRY HICKORY JASPER LACLEDE LAWRENCE NEWTON POLK ST. CLAIR VERNON WEBSTER Read more

WW 206 SEVERE TSTM KS MO 092105Z - 100400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 206 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 405 PM CDT Tue May 9 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of East and Southeast Kansas Southwest Missouri * Effective this Tuesday afternoon and evening from 405 PM until 1100 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...A well-organized linear cluster of storms will continue to move southeastward across southeast Kansas into southwest Missouri, while other semi-isolated severe storms may occur across southwest Missouri ahead of it. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles north and south of a line from 35 miles northwest of Chanute KS to 45 miles east northeast of Springfield MO. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 204...WW 205... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 29030. ...Guyer Read more

WW 0204 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 204 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WNW SLN TO 30 WSW TOP TO 10 W STJ. ..THORNTON..05/09/23 ATTN...WFO...ICT...TOP...OAX...GID... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 204 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC001-003-009-015-017-031-045-053-059-073-079-087-111-113-115- 127-139-155-159-169-173-177-207-092240- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALLEN ANDERSON BARTON BUTLER CHASE COFFEY DOUGLAS ELLSWORTH FRANKLIN GREENWOOD HARVEY JEFFERSON LYON MCPHERSON MARION MORRIS OSAGE RENO RICE SALINE SEDGWICK SHAWNEE WOODSON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 204 SEVERE TSTM KS NE 091530Z - 092300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 204 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1030 AM CDT Tue May 9 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Central and Eastern Kansas Far Southeast Nebraska * Effective this Tuesday morning and evening from 1030 AM until 600 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Widespread damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts to 80 mph possible Scattered large hail likely with isolated very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...An increasingly organized cluster of storms across north-central Kansas and far south-central Nebraska as of 1030am CDT will continue to spread east-southeastward through late morning into afternoon, with some additional expansion of new storms on its southern flank across central Kansas. Damaging winds will be an increasingly prevalent concern with these storms, aside from large hail and some/brief tornado risk with embedded circulations. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 85 statute miles north and south of a line from 30 miles northwest of Salina KS to 35 miles south southeast of Topeka KS. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 203... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 70 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 31025. ...Guyer Read more

MD 0747 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 204... FOR EAST-CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST KS INTO SOUTHWEST MO
Mesoscale Discussion 0747 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0353 PM CDT Tue May 09 2023 Areas affected...East-central/southeast KS into southwest MO Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 204... Valid 092053Z - 092230Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 204 continues. SUMMARY...The threat for potentially significant wind gusts and large hail will spread southeastward into the early evening. Downstream watch issuance now appears likely within the hour. DISCUSSION...The long-lived MCS continues to move across eastern KS late this afternoon, with sporadic measured gusts of 60-80 mph noted within the last 1-2 hours. A nearly stationary surface boundary is still noted in surface observations and on visible satellite imagery, though some modification has occurred on the cool side of the boundary, with increasing cumulus and MLCAPE noted from east of Topeka to south of Kansas City. Moderate to strong buoyancy will help to sustain this MCS as it moves southeastward into this evening, though increasingly marginal deep-layer flow/shear downstream could eventually limit the organization/intensity of the MCS to some extent. The greatest short-term severe wind threat may focus along the surface boundary into southeast KS, where instability and low-level convergence is more favorable and the gust front has not yet notably surged ahead of the leading convection. Based on the expected timing of the MCS, downstream watch issuance into far southeast KS and southwest MO is likely within the hour. ..Dean/Guyer.. 05/09/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TOP...ICT... LAT...LON 39039650 38669491 38069428 37469430 37229467 37329583 37559647 38039737 38519698 39039650 Read more

MD 0746 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 205... FOR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA
Mesoscale Discussion 0746 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0352 PM CDT Tue May 09 2023 Areas affected...Eastern North Carolina and southeast Virginia Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 205... Valid 092052Z - 092215Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 205 continues. SUMMARY...The severe weather threat will continue into the evening across southeast Virginia and eastern North Carolina. DISCUSSION...There have been several severe hail reports and at least one damaging wind report across portions of eastern North Carolina where a few supercells have developed and moved southeast. These storms will continue to pose a severe weather threat as they move southeast as the environment becomes increasingly favorable. Farther north, storms along the front are less organized thus far. Likely due to weaker instability in the region with temperatures only near 80F with dewpoints near 60F. These storms could increase in severe weather potential as they move southeast toward better instability, but likely will not pose as great of a severe weather threat as the supercells farther south. These storms are closely tied to diurnal heating and will likely start to wane by mid to late evening as the boundary layer cools. ..Bentley.. 05/09/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...RNK... LAT...LON 37027882 37337845 36977687 35577589 34567608 34267692 34167750 34307793 34587828 34987850 35667861 37027882 Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0251 PM CDT Tue May 09 2023 Valid 092000Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN KANSAS INTO FAR WEST-CENTRAL MISSOURI... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS VICINITY AND SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA INTO EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... A corridor of severe thunderstorms will continue moving east/southeast across parts of eastern Kansas through evening. Embedded swaths of very large hail, damaging severe gusts, and a few brief tornadoes are possible. Scattered damaging winds and isolated severe hail are also possible through early evening across eastern North Carolina and southeast Virginia. ...20z Update - KS/MO Vicinity... The main changes to the outlook at 20z are to reorient the Enhanced risk (Level 3 of 5) to include more of eastern KS to the west-central MO border. This is based on the expected continued east/southeast motion of the bowing line of convection currently over central to northeast KS. Swaths of damaging gusts, very large hail and a couple of tornadoes will remain possible into early evening. Additional thunderstorm development remains possible with westward extent into parts of western KS along the outflow boundary as low-level upslope flow and strong heating allow for some airmass recovery from morning convection. ...Elsewhere... No other changes have been made to the previous outlook. For details, see previous discussion below. ..Leitman.. 05/09/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1143 AM CDT Tue May 09 2023/ ...Kansas/southern Nebraska... A severe MCS continues to mature/expand and show early signs of modest southeastward acceleration as of late morning/1130AM CDT across north-central Kansas. As a surface cold pool expands, persistent warm/moist advection will help to maintain this MCS southeastward parallel to the instability/thickness gradient, with additional southward expansion likely across central Kansas early this afternoon as the boundary layer warms/destabilizes. The potential for widespread/locally intense wind gusts will likely increase as the MCS reaches east-central Kansas including the I-135 and near/south of I-70 corridors and Kansas Turnpike vicinity. Large hail will be possible, especially with semi-discrete storms on the southwest flank of the MCS (or completely distinct from it). A brief tornado risk may also exist with line-embedded circulations. Additional strong/severe development cannot be ruled out later this afternoon in vicinity of trailing outflow across northwest Kansas and/or atop the surface cold pool across northern Kansas/far southwest Nebraska. Storms may also develop around late afternoon trailing westward to the dryline in southwest Kansas. Should this occur, a broader MCS may form and push south-southeast into the Ozark Plateau to northern Oklahoma this evening. But an increasingly disorganized trend is anticipated tonight as mid-level flow weakens substantially with southern extent owing to the presence of an anticyclone over southern Oklahoma. ...Southeast Virginia and eastern Carolinas... No changes in outlook reasoning/assessment for this region. A shortwave trough will move southeast from the Lower Great Lakes across the Mid-Atlantic States today. A belt of enhanced westerly flow will accompany this feature, and provide support for sufficient deep-layer shear to foster thunderstorm organization. Although surface winds will be veered mostly to the west-northwest, there will still be adequate low-level moisture in place for weak to moderate buoyancy to develop given abundant insolation. Most guidance shows isolated to scattered thunderstorms developing this afternoon with a mix of multicells and a few supercells. A threat for both severe hail and damaging winds should be greatest across southeast Virginia and northeast North Carolina, with more of an isolated damaging wind threat southward into South Carolina. ...Texas/Louisiana... Strong/locally severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon, influenced by development/intensification on the periphery of multiple MCVs via two de-intensified MCSs. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms will likely increase downstream of these features, later this morning into the afternoon. Despite the weak shear, low to mid 70s surface dew points suggest a threat for wet microbursts and isolated severe hail will be possible. A conditionally favorable supercell threat may redevelop in a portion of Deep South Texas later this afternoon. A belt of enhanced mid-level westerlies to the south of the minor mid-level lows will yield adequate bulk shear for supercells along residual convective outflow. Primary uncertainty is the degree of low-level moisture recovery in the wake of morning convective outflows (mean mixing ratio below 12 g/kg in the 12Z BRO sounding). ...Northeast Colorado to western North Dakota... Isolated to scattered late-afternoon thunderstorm development is possible along a surface trough from the Nebraska Panhandle to western North Dakota vicinity. While MLCAPE will likely remain weak (at or below 1000 J/kg), 500-mb southwesterlies around 30-35 kt will support a threat for isolated severe hail and locally strong gusts into the early evening. Overnight, a cluster of elevated thunderstorms should develop in the northeast Colorado to Wyoming/Nebraska border area as weak mid-level height falls overspread weak low-level upslope flow. Isolated large hail will be the main threat. ...Central/eastern Montana... Long hodographs/forcing for ascent enhanced by an approaching mid-level trough, in conjunction with a modestly moist/unstable environment, may allow for some stronger or locally severe storms capable of hail and/or wind from mid-afternoon through early evening. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0247 PM CDT Tue May 09 2023 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF NEW MEXICO INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL COLORADO... No changes to the ongoing forecast. Locally extremely critical conditions are possible across parts of central New Mexico. The most likely locations for these conditions are within the terrain where fuels may be a touch less receptive to fire spread. Dry thunderstorms are at least initially possible in the vicinity of the Raton Mesa. Given the increase in moisture to the east, it is not clear how far east storms will remain dry. ..Wendt.. 05/09/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0148 AM CDT Tue May 09 2023/ ...Synopsis... By day2/Wed, a compact mid-level trough will be centered over the Southwest with strong flow aloft extending eastward over the southern Rockies and High Plains. A surface low will rapidly deepen aiding in strong surface flow across such of NM, southern CO and the High Plains. Dry downslope winds and low humidity will support widespread critical fire-weather concerns. ...New Mexico and southern Colorado... As the main shortwave begins to eject over the southern Rockies, 60-70 kt of mid-level southwesterly flow will overspread NM and southern CO. A surface low will quickly deepen across southern CO enhancing downslope pressure gradients across much of the southern Rockies and High Plains. Widespread winds of 20-30 mph with higher gusts are likely. By early afternoon, very warm surface temperatures, in combination with downsloping winds and the already dry air mass will favor RH values below 10%. Widespread critical fire-weather conditions are anticipated over much of central NM, extending north into southern CO. There remains some uncertainty on eastern extent of fire-weather conditions as the deepening low begins to draw surface moisture farther north and west. High-based thunderstorms may pose some risk for dry lightning in the evening across portions of the southern High Plains. Strong surface wind fields may also support some risk for elevated fire-weather concerns despite more marginal humidity. The eastern extent of the probabilities may be adjusted in coming outlooks, but for now, uncertainty remains too high to introduce fire-weather highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook AMEND 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0156 PM CDT Tue May 09 2023 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS... AMENDED FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS ...SUMMARY... Strong/severe thunderstorms are forecast Thursday across the central Plains vicinity, where large hail can be expected along with locally damaging winds and possibly a couple of tornadoes. ...19z Update - Eastern CO/Western KS/OK... The Day 3 outlook for Thursday (May 11) has been amended for expected severe potential further west than previously forecast. Operational 09/12z NAM/GFS forecast guidance has trended slower/further west (and more in line with ECMWF and 12z NAM 3km/RRFS/FV3) with the progression of an ejecting mid/upper shortwave trough over the southern/central High Plains. This slower ejection of the shortwave trough is common in systems that tend to have a stronger meridional component. A surface low is expected to be located over southeast CO with a dryline extending south through the TX Panhandle and western TX Thursday morning. Convection will likely develop by late morning near the triple point over southeast CO and arcing east/southeast along the dryline through western KS. This morning activity will pose a risk for large hail initially. As the upper wave lifts northeast into the afternoon, convection is expected to shift north/northeast into a more unstable airmass. At the same time, additional development is expected south/southeast along the eastward-advancing dryline into central KS/OK. Supercells capable of all severe hazards will be possible from parts of western/central KS into OK. A second round of storms may impact parts of eastern CO and western KS behind morning convection and associated with the eastward meandering surface low. Large hail and strong gusts will be possible with any second round of convection that develops during the afternoon. ...Previous Day 3 Discussion (issued 0730z 09 May)... ...Synopsis... An upper low progged to lie over the central High Plains area early in the day is forecast to pivot slowly northeastward across Nebraska and into South Dakota through the period. At this occurs, a surface low is forecast to shift northeastward out of Colorado along roughly the same path, while a trailing trough/dryline reaches central Kansas/western Oklahoma by late afternoon. Elsewhere, ridging on the western and eastern flanks of the low will affect the West Coast, and the Southeast/Midwest, while northwesterly flow aloft prevails across New England. ...The Plains states from South Dakota to Oklahoma... Ahead of the advancing surface system, afternoon heating across the central Plains and vicinity will combine with a seasonably moist boundary layer to yield moderate destabilization -- particularly from central Nebraska southward. While a low-level capping inversion will limit convective coverage with southward extent, particularly given the northeastward advance of the upper system, isolated storms are forecast to develop along the dryline by late afternoon as far south as central Kansas and western Oklahoma. Here, steep lapse rates and veering/increasing flow with height will support supercells, with very large hail and a damaging gust or two expected, and possibly a tornado. Farther north -- into Nebraska and South Dakota, instability will decrease with northward extent. Still, with low-level southeasterly flow veering to a more southerly direction at mid levels will support organized/rotating storms, with risk for hail and locally damaging wind gusts along with a tornado or two. Storms may grow upscale overnight as the low-level jet increases, spreading across the Mid-Missouri Valley along with some hail/wind potential. ..Leitman.. 05/09/2023 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1227 PM CDT Tue May 09 2023 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms -- capable of producing damaging winds and hail, and potentially a couple of tornadoes -- are expected Wednesday afternoon and evening within an area centered over the central High Plains. ...Southeast MT south to the OK/TX Panhandles... An upper trough over the western U.S. will shift east across the Four Corners vicinity toward the central/southern High Plains on Wednesday. As this occurs, meridional/southerly mid/upper level flow will modestly increase over the southern/central Rockies and adjacent High Plains vicinity. At the surface, a weak low/trough will extend southward from near the Palmer Divide to the NM/TX border. Southeasterly low-level flow will maintain modest boundary-layer moisture over the region with dewpoints generally in the 50s F. Near-60 F dewpoints are possible further east toward western NE/KS. Steep midlevel lapse rates (7.5-8.5 C/km) atop this modest boundary-layer moisture will support weak to moderate destabilization. Some model discrepancy is apparent over portions of southwest NE/northwest KS/northeast CO vicinity with the 12z NAM maintaining a much cooler airmass compared to other guidance. This is likely due to placement of morning convection and outflow related to storms in the Day 1 period. This lends to quite a bit of uncertainty in convective evolution in the Day 2 period. Nevertheless, convection is expected to develop near higher terrain during the early/mid-afternoon and spread east/northeast across eastern WY/CO and into SD/NE/KS by evening. Additional more isolated convection also is expected to develop along the surface trough over the southern High Plains. Initially, large hail will be the main hazard with more discrete storms. However, where stronger surface heating occurs, damaging gusts also will be possible. Some upscale development into clusters/bows may increase wind potential with time and eastward extent as well. The tornado risk is more uncertain. Low-level flow will generally be weak with northward extent and the more meridional flow is producing vertical shear profiles less favorable for tornadoes. The greatest relative risk will likely be confined to northeast CO and vicinity where backed low-level flow and somewhat stronger vertical shear is forecast. If the cooler, more capped solution presented by the NAM unfolds, the tornado risk may be diminished even across this area. ...Northeast ND into northern MN... A shortwave impulse is forecast to move atop the northern Plains/Upper Midwest upper ridge near the international border through the afternoon/evening. This will allow for a belt of enhanced westerly flow to overspread the region atop modest boundary-layer moisture (surface dewpoints in the 50s F). Forecast soundings indicate modestly steep midlevel lapse rates (around 7 C/km), aiding in weak destabilization (750-1000 J/kg MLCAPE). Thunderstorms are expected to develop along a southeastward-advancing front initially over Manitoba and spread southeast into northeast ND and northern MN. Vertically veering wind profiles will result in marginal effective shear magnitudes around 30 kt, allowing for organized cells despite rather low/midlevel flow. Elongated, straight forecast hodographs coupled with modest instability suggest marginally severe hail is possible with this activity as it spreads east/southeast near the international border from late afternoon into the evening hours. ...Southeast TX/Western LA vicinity... An upper ridge is forecast to extend from the TN Valley/Central Gulf Coast vicinity, north/northwest toward the Upper Midwest on Wednesday. A weakness/shortwave impulse within the western periphery of the eastern U.S. upper ridge will migrate across TX toward the Lower MS Valley. At the surface, a weak low/MCV is forecast in the vicinity of east-central TX Wednesday morning. This feature will lift north/northeast through the day. A few strong storms are possible within broader area of precipitation/ongoing MCS during the morning across southeast TX/Upper TX Coast. Additional convection and locally strong storms also will be possible through the afternoon across southeast TX toward the Sabine River and perhaps as far north as the ArkLaTex vicinity on the eastern periphery of the low/MCV. However, widespread cloudiness/persistent precipitation will limit heating and destabilization through the day. Some enhancement of otherwise modest vertical shear by the low/MCV may support transient strong/organized cells. Sporadic strong gusts will be the main hazard with this activity through the afternoon. ..Leitman.. 05/09/2023 Read more