Severe Storms

MD 1679 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR WESTERN WISCONSIN AND MINNESOTA
Mesoscale Discussion 1679 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0336 PM CDT Sat Jul 22 2023 Areas affected...western Wisconsin and Minnesota Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 222036Z - 222230Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Scattered storms capable of large hail may continue through the afternoon. DISCUSSION...Ongoing thunderstorm activity across Minnesota and Wisconsin have produced scattered reports of 0.50"-1.25" hail, along with one report of 2.5 inch hail near Marcell, MN. Convection is further aided by a mid-level impulse digging southward across Minnesota at this time. RAP sounding analysis indicates largely straight hodographs with steep low-level lapse rates and unstable conditions through the profile. MLCAPE around 1500 J/kg overlaps deep layer shear around 30-35 kts. Discrete convection has been able to produce larger hail within this environment. Forcing for ascent remains somewhat weak, though moisture convergence is evident from surface objective analysis and surface observations. Uncertainty if discrete storm mode will continue and duration/coverage of the large hail threat. Instances of sub-severe hail and hail up to 1-1.5 will be possible. Trends will continue to be monitored but a watch is unlikely to be issued at this time. ..Thornton/Hart.. 07/22/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DLH...ARX...MPX...FGF...FSD... LAT...LON 44379096 44239102 43899172 43809258 43729337 43719403 43779495 43829552 43829606 44099621 44419633 45019605 46239555 46859556 47359558 48109504 48059356 47749298 47109277 46479275 46169227 46009175 45689092 45299056 44379096 Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0256 PM CDT Sat Jul 22 2023 Valid 222000Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms capable of large hail and damaging winds remain possible into this evening across parts of the central Plains. Storms capable of isolated damaging gusts may persist into this evening across parts of the Southeast, and develop by early evening over parts of Arizona. ...20Z Update... The Slight Risk has been trimmed slightly across parts of AL/GA, in the immediate wake of storms sagging southward toward the Gulf Coast. The Marginal Risk has been expanded across parts of northern MN, southwest MN into southeast SD, and north-central NE, where developing cumulus and storm initiation has been recently observed within a somewhat favorable (but weakly forced) environment, with hail and localized damaging gusts the primary threats. A small part of the Marginal Risk has been trimmed across far northeast MN/northwest WI, where substantial redevelopment appears likely in the wake of earlier convection. Otherwise, no major changes have been made. Storms capable of locally damaging winds will remain possible through the afternoon across parts of the Southeast, and may develop by early this evening across parts of Arizona. Storms capable of hail and localized severe gusts may increase in coverage late this afternoon and evening across parts of the central Plains, with a more isolated threat into the upper Midwest. See the previous discussion below for more information. See MCD 1677 for more information regarding the threat across parts of the central Plains. ..Dean.. 07/22/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1118 AM CDT Sat Jul 22 2023/ ...KS Vicinity... Morning visible satellite imagery shows clear skies over most of KS, where strong heating will combine with dewpoints in the mid 60s to yield afternoon MLCAPE around 1500 J/kg. Large scale forcing is subtle in this region, with weak mid-level height rises and diffuse surface boundaries expected to influence storm potential. Nevertheless, most 12z CAM solutions continue to show potential for widely scattered thunderstorms by late afternoon. Deep northwest flow aloft will provide sufficient vertical shear for rotating updrafts capable of large hail and damaging wind gusts. ...Gulf Coast Region... A weak surface boundary extends from southern MS eastward into southern GA today. The air mass along and south of the boundary is very moist and unstable. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to affect this region through the afternoon. The southern fringe of stronger mid-level westerlies lies along the boundary, and will likely result in at least isolated instances of damaging wind gusts. Please refer to MCD #1675 for further details. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0243 PM CDT Sat Jul 22 2023 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...Southern California... Updated Hi-res model guidance has trended stronger with the aforementioned shortwave rotating around the west side of the upper-level ridge. Area model soundings show dry low-levels, with deep inverted V structures, and sufficient CAPE for thunderstorms across portions of the southern California mountains and deserts. The stronger shortwave, and presence of increasing monsoon moisture lend higher confidence in dry thunderstorm coverage being slightly higher than previously forecast. Storms are most likely across portions of the High deserts and eastern most Transverse Ranges. More localized storms are possible farther west across the Ventura and Peninsular Ranges, but uncertainty increases toward the coast. With the greater confidence in isolated storm coverage, dry fuels and lightning, an IsoDryT area has been added for portions of southern CA. ...Northern Great Basin into southern/western ID... In addition to gusty winds and lower humidity, isolated thunderstorms are possible across portions of northeastern NV, into far eastern OR and southern ID D2/Sun evening into early D3/Mon. With a deep and dry mixed layer present on area forecast soundings, little wetting rain potential is expected with any storms able to develop. The highest confidence in storm coverage is across portions of eastern ID where less receptive fuels are present. However, very isolated dry storms are possible, with some potential for lightning ignitions within receptive fuels, across portions of far southeast OR and southwestern ID. ..Lyons.. 07/22/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0104 AM CDT Sat Jul 22 2023/ ...Synopsis... The upper-level ridge will start to shift east on Sunday which will allow some stronger mid-level flow to overspread the Northwest and the northern Great Basin. Downslope flow in the lee of the Sierra and deep mixing across northern Nevada/southern Oregon will allow winds to increase to 15 to 20 mph during the afternoon amid single-digit relative humidity. Some enhancement of the flow is possible across southern Nevada on Sunday as a weak mid-level shortwave trough moves northward around the western edge of the anticyclone. This shortwave trough is currently across central New Mexico and may undergo some convective enhancement during the D1/Saturday period. Due to the influence of Day 1 convection on the strength of this trough, will not add an Elevated area at this time. Some elevated conditions are possible in the Snake River Plain on Sunday as stronger mid-level flow overspreads the region and low pressure develops in the northern Great Basin. However, fuels in the area remain only marginally dry. Therefore, an Elevated delineation is not warranted at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 PM CDT Sat Jul 22 2023 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF ARIZONA...AND ALSO ACROSS PARTS OF GEORGIA AND THE CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with isolated damaging wind will be possible across parts of Georgia and the Carolinas on Sunday. Thunderstorms with isolated severe thunderstorm gusts are also possible mainly Sunday evening over portions of Arizona. ...Synopsis... An upper ridge centered over the Four Corners region is forecast to build into a larger portion of the central/southern Plains on Sunday, as an upper trough over the eastern CONUS gradually weakens and shifts eastward. At the surface, a weakening cold front will likely be draped somewhere from south-central TX northeastward into southern parts of LA/MS/AL, central/southern GA, and the eastern Carolinas. A weak surface low may develop over the northern High Plains and move southeastward along a surface trough. ...Parts of Georgia and the Carolinas... Moderate buoyancy is expected to develop along/ahead of the cold front across parts of the Southeast. The most favorable overlap of instability, stronger flow aloft, and storm coverage is expected from parts of Georgia into the Carolinas, immediately in advance of the main upper trough. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms may develop during the afternoon, with deep-layer shear sufficient for a few modestly organized cells/clusters capable of localized damaging gusts and small to perhaps marginally severe hail. Isolated strong storms may also develop farther west near the southern Appalachians, within a drier but modestly unstable regime. Coverage of the severe threat appears too low for probabilities at this time, but some threat for isolated damaging gusts could evolve in this area as well. ...Arizona... Very strong heating and increasing PW will support isolated to scattered thunderstorm development during the late afternoon near the Mogollon Rim, and potentially into the lower deserts across AZ. Isolated microbursts will be possible with the initial development. 15-20 kt of easterly midlevel flow along the southern periphery of the ridge may support a few outflow-driven, westward-moving clusters capable of at least localized severe gusts into Sunday evening. Some threat could reach as far as the lower CO River Valley before weakening. ...Central/northern Plains into the Midwest... A broad portion of the central/northern Plains and Midwest will reside in a regime characterized by northwesterly mid/upper-level flow, modest low-level moisture, relatively steep low/midlevel lapse rates, and generally weak large-scale ascent. Very isolated storm development will be possible within this regime, with sufficient instability and deep-layer to support a conditional supercell risk. Severe probabilities may eventually be needed for some part of this area, if confidence increases in the location and coverage of potential development. ..Dean.. 07/22/2023 Read more

WW 0535 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 535 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..BUNTING..07/21/23 ATTN...WFO...MEG... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 535 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC031-035-037-077-093-107-111-123-211940- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CRAIGHEAD CRITTENDEN CROSS LEE MISSISSIPPI PHILLIPS POINSETT ST. FRANCIS MSC003-009-013-017-027-033-057-071-081-093-095-107-115-117-119- 135-137-139-141-143-145-161-211940- MS . MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALCORN BENTON CALHOUN CHICKASAW COAHOMA DESOTO ITAWAMBA LAFAYETTE LEE MARSHALL MONROE PANOLA PONTOTOC PRENTISS QUITMAN TALLAHATCHIE TATE TIPPAH TISHOMINGO TUNICA UNION YALOBUSHA Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Fri Jul 21 18:31:03 UTC 2023.

WW 0534 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 534 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..BUNTING..07/21/23 ATTN...WFO...OKX...BOX...ALY...GYX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 534 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS CTC001-003-005-007-009-011-013-015-211940- CT . CONNECTICUT COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE FAIRFIELD HARTFORD LITCHFIELD MIDDLESEX NEW HAVEN NEW LONDON TOLLAND WINDHAM MAC003-011-013-015-027-211940- MA . MASSACHUSETTS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BERKSHIRE FRANKLIN HAMPDEN HAMPSHIRE WORCESTER NHC005-011-013-019-211940- NH . NEW HAMPSHIRE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHESHIRE HILLSBOROUGH MERRIMACK SULLIVAN Read more

WW 534 SEVERE TSTM CT MA NH NY VT 211700Z - 220000Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 534 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 100 PM EDT Fri Jul 21 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Connecticut Western and Central Massachusetts Southern New Hampshire Eastern New York Southern Vermont * Effective this Friday afternoon and evening from 100 PM until 800 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Widely scattered thunderstorms are expected through the afternoon across the region, with a few intense cells possible. Damaging wind gusts are the primary threat. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 50 statute miles east and west of a line from 35 miles north northwest of Keene NH to 45 miles west southwest of Groton CT. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 25025. ...Hart Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Fri Jul 21 2023 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST...SOUTHEAST...AND ARIZONA... ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered strong to severe thunderstorms appear possible on Saturday across parts of the central Plains into the Upper Midwest, Southeast, and Arizona. ...Synopsis... An upper ridge will remain centered over much of the western CONUS Saturday, while broad upper troughing encompasses the central and eastern states. Modestly enhanced west-northwesterly mid-level flow should be present between these two features. Greater low-level moisture should remain confined to parts of the Southeast along and south of a convectively reinforced front. But, sufficient moisture across the central Plains and Upper Midwest should be in place to support at least isolated robust convection. ...Central Plains/Upper Midwest... Around 30-40 kt of northwesterly mid-level flow will remain over much of the central Plains into the Upper Midwest on Saturday. While low-level moisture may remain fairly shallow/limited by late July standards, steepened low/mid-level lapse rates and daytime heating should promote the development of weak to moderate instability by late Saturday afternoon. Large-scale ascent appears nebulous, but isolated to scattered convection may still develop along and southeast of a weak surface trough. With 25-40 kt of deep-layer shear forecast, a widely spaced mix of multicells and supercells may develop and spread southeastward through Saturday evening while posing an isolated threat for large hail and severe wind gusts. Based on latest guidance, have expanded the Marginal Risk to encompass more of the central Plains and Upper Midwest. ...Southeast... Scattered showers and thunderstorms may be ongoing Saturday morning across parts of MS/AL into GA and perhaps SC. The convectively reinforced outflow/front and a separate sea breeze will likely be foci for renewed convective development by Saturday afternoon. A belt of modest westerly mid-level winds at the base of the large-scale upper trough will exist across much of the Southeast. Plentiful low-level moisture, with surface dewpoints generally in the 70s, and ample diurnal heating will likely foster moderate to strong instability by early Saturday afternoon. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms should develop in this environment along and south of the front. Strong to locally damaging winds may occur with the more robust convection given the very moist profiles, and some clustering may occur. Isolated hail also appears possible with the strongest cores. At this point, not enough confidence exists to include greater severe wind probabilities. But, have expanded the Marginal Risk to include more of the Gulf Coast into north FL. ...Arizona... An upper-level anticyclone will remain centered near the Four Corners region Saturday. It appears that modest (15-20 kt) east-northeasterly mid-level winds will be present across parts of southern AZ and vicinity. As thunderstorms develop over the higher terrain, there may be enough low/mid-level flow to push this convection westward into the lower terrain of southern/central AZ. Very steep low/mid-level lapse rates with a well-mixed boundary layer and ample DCAPE should support some threat for severe winds if this occurs. With a better signal of this potential in recent high-resolution guidance, have added a Marginal Risk for severe/damaging winds. ..Gleason.. 07/21/2023 Read more

WW 535 SEVERE TSTM AR MS TN 211725Z - 212300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 535 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1225 PM CDT Fri Jul 21 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Eastern Arkansas Northern Mississippi Southwest Tennessee * Effective this Friday afternoon and evening from 1225 PM until 600 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible Isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...A line of thunderstorms over northeast Arkansas will track eastward this afternoon across the watch area. Locally damaging wind gusts and hail are possible. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 50 statute miles north and south of a line from 60 miles west of Memphis TN to 55 miles northeast of Tupelo MS. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 534... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 27035. ...Hart Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1134 AM CDT Fri Jul 21 2023 Valid 211700Z - 221200Z ...17z Update... Across parts of the Northwest, morning surface obs showed a few areas of gusty winds through the Cascade Gaps and western Columbia Basin. Fair to moderate overnight humidity recoveries will quickly erode this morning, with afternoon RH values below 25% likely. Gusty west winds through the gaps are expected through the afternoon hours with brief, locally elevated, fire-weather conditions possible. The Elevated area over the Columbia Gorge was modified slightly for the latest guidance. Please see the prior discussion for more information. ..Lyons.. 07/21/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1251 AM CDT Fri Jul 21 2023/ ...Synopsis... An upper-level ridge will remain across the West today, roughly centered within the Great Basin into the northern Rockies. In the Northwest, an upper-level trough will approach the area through the period. The strongest winds will reach western portions of the region around Saturday morning. At the surface, the pressure pattern for most areas west of the Divide will be diffuse. A thermal pressure trough will develop in the Columbia Basin. Fire weather concerns will generally be low across most areas with dry fuels given weak surface winds. Hot and dry conditions are likely within much of the Great Basin and Southwest. Where winds are locally stronger, localized elevated conditions may occur. ...Columbia Gorge... A few hours of marginally elevated fire weather conditions are possible during the afternoon. Confidence in RH reaching 15-20% is reasonably high, though some guidance shows only 20-25%. Winds will be the limiting factor. Only around 15 mph winds are expected with perhaps brief periods near 20 mph within the terrain itself. The potential for stronger winds will be limited as the surface trough will be modest and stronger mid-level flow will not arrive until after the diurnal RH minimum. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1116 AM CDT Fri Jul 21 2023 Valid 211630Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH/TENNESSEE VALLEY/SOUTHEAST...NORTHEAST STATES...AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of wind damage and some hail are expected across the Mid-South and Tennessee Valley to the Southeast States, while additional severe storms will be possible across the Northeast and High Plains. ...AR into the Southeast States... A large MCS that tracked across southern OK last night is now over northern/central AR. This system and its attendant MCV will move into western TN this afternoon, where sufficient heating and a very moist air mass will support the potential for re-intensification. If this scenario occurs, locally damaging wind gusts would be the main concern. To the southeast of the MCS, a weak surface boundary extends across southeast AR into portions of MS/AL/GA. A very unstable air mass will become established this afternoon along this axis, where scattered thunderstorm development is expected. MLCAPE values around 3000 J/kg will combine with winds in the 5-7km layer around 30 knots to pose some risk of damaging wind gusts in the stronger cells. The risk of wind damage will increase later this afternoon if sufficient thunderstorm coverage can result in more organized outflows. ...New England... An upper trough is moving across the northeast states today, with an associated cold front currently extending across parts of eastern NY/PA. Clouds have been clearing ahead of the front across western New England, where temperatures will rapidly warm into the 80s. Ample low-level moisture is present from southern VT/NH southward, where upper 60s/lower 70s dewpoints will yield afternoon MLCAPE values of 1500-2000 J/kg. Forecast soundings show sufficient deep layer shear for a few organized/rotating storms capable of strong/damaging wind gusts and perhaps hail for a few hours this afternoon. ...Northeast NM... Weak easterly low-level upslope flow is present today over northeast NM, helping to transport 60s dewpoints westward toward the higher terrain. Thunderstorms are expected to form in the mountains near Raton and drift southeastward through the afternoon. Steep low-level lapse rates and 30-40 knots of effective shear will promote the development of a few supercells capable of large hail and damaging wind gusts. ..Hart/Thornton.. 07/21/2023 Read more

WW 0533 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 533 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 ESE FSM TO 35 ESE FYV TO 15 ENE UMN. WW 533 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 211500Z. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1663 ..DEAN..07/21/23 ATTN...WFO...TSA... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 533 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC015-087-211500- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CARROLL MADISON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

MD 1653 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 526... FOR SOUTHEAST WYOMING INTO EASTERN COLORADO
Mesoscale Discussion 1653 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0519 PM CDT Thu Jul 20 2023 Areas affected...Southeast Wyoming into Eastern Colorado Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 526... Valid 202219Z - 210015Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 526 continues. SUMMARY...All severe hazards will remain possible this afternoon into the evening, particularly for southeast Colorado. The tornado threat will be maximized along/near a surface boundary from near Lamar to northeast of Pueblo. DISCUSSION...Numerous supercells continue in eastern Colorado into southeast Wyoming. The most intense of these storms are in southeast Colorado where surface heating has been greater. Strong northwesterly effective shear and MLCAPE of 1500-2000 J/kg (maximized in southeast Colorado with lesser amounts farther north) will continue to support supercells capable of severe wind gusts, large to very large hail, and perhaps a tornado or two. A surface boundary is evident within surface observations and local radar imagery in southeast Colorado. KPUX VAD profiles show slightly more enlarged low-level hodographs as a result. The tornado threat this afternoon will be maximized along/near this boundary. With time, storm interactions should lead to upscale growth into an MCS, a consensus scenario in high-resolution guidance. At that time, severe wind gusts (some exceeding 75 mph) would become the primary threat. For northeast Colorado into southeast Wyoming, the overall threat will be somewhat mitigated by lesser buoyancy and more stable air just to the east. ..Wendt.. 07/20/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...GLD...PUB...BOU...CYS... LAT...LON 37450480 38940506 39970512 41380526 41540455 40730275 37900213 37250218 37070350 37210427 37450480 Read more

WW 0528 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0528 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 528 SEVERE TSTM MD NY OH PA WV LE LO 202215Z - 210700Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 528 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 615 PM EDT Thu Jul 20 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Maryland Panhandle Western to central New York Eastern Ohio Western, central and northeastern Pennsylvania Extreme northern West Virginia Lake Erie Lake Ontario * Effective this Thursday night and Friday morning from 615 PM until 300 AM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...An extensive arc of thunderstorms with damaging to severe gusts is expected to sweep eastward and southeastward across the watch area into tonight. This complex may be preceded by at least isolated cells capable of localized large hail and wind damage. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 120 statute miles east and west of a line from 15 miles southwest of Morgantown WV to 50 miles northwest of Syracuse NY. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 524...WW 525...WW 526...WW 527... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 29035. ...Edwards Read more

WW 0524 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 524 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSW HUF TO 25 ESE LAF TO 25 WSW FWA TO 25 ENE FWA TO 40 WNW FDY TO 5 SW TOL TO 30 E TOL TO 45 NW CLE. ..BENTLEY..07/20/23 ATTN...WFO...ILX...IWX...IND...ILN...CLE... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 524 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS INC001-003-009-011-021-023-031-035-041-047-053-057-059-063-065- 067-069-075-081-095-097-107-109-119-133-135-139-145-159-161-169- 177-179-202340- IN . INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS ALLEN BLACKFORD BOONE CLAY CLINTON DECATUR DELAWARE FAYETTE FRANKLIN GRANT HAMILTON HANCOCK HENDRICKS HENRY HOWARD HUNTINGTON JAY JOHNSON MADISON MARION MONTGOMERY MORGAN OWEN PUTNAM RANDOLPH RUSH SHELBY TIPTON UNION WABASH WAYNE WELLS OHC003-005-007-011-021-023-033-035-037-039-041-043-049-055-057- 063-065-069-075-077-083-085-089-091-093-095-097-099-101-103-107- 109-113-117-123-125-133-135-137-139-143-147-149-151-153-155-159- 161-169-173-175-202340- Read more

WW 524 SEVERE TSTM IL IN MI OH PA LE 201845Z - 210300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 524 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 245 PM EDT Thu Jul 20 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of East Central Illinois Northern and Central Indiana Southern Lower Michigan Northern and Central Ohio Northwest Pennsylvania Lake Erie * Effective this Thursday afternoon and evening from 245 PM until 1100 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter likely Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to intensify this afternoon and spread across much of the watch area through the evening. The strongest storms will pose a risk of damaging wind gusts, large hail, and perhaps a tornado or two. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles north and south of a line from 15 miles south of Champaign IL to 15 miles east southeast of Erie PA. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 522...WW 523... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 29035. ...Hart Read more

MD 1652 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR NORTHERN INTO EASTERN GEORGIA...WESTERN INTO SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA
Mesoscale Discussion 1652 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0459 PM CDT Thu Jul 20 2023 Areas affected...northern into eastern Georgia...western into southern South Carolina Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 202159Z - 210030Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Severe storms may extend south and east of watch 525, with severe wind gusts expected. A new watch appears likely. DISCUSSION...A line of storms extending across northern GA and into far northeast AL is producing measured severe gusts over 50 kt at multiple observing sites. Westerly low-level winds will continue to feed unstable air into the region ahead of this line of storms as it moves southeastward this evening. Although effective shear is only on the order of 25-30 kt, similar deep-layer mean wind speeds will favor a forward-propagating system with strong to severe outflow. Given the uncapped air mass downstream with mid 70s F dewpoints and MLCAPE around 2500 J/kg, the threat may extend to the coast. As such, a continued severe risk is anticipated given ample instability and current organization of this system. ..Jewell.. 07/20/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...CHS...CAE...GSP...FFC... LAT...LON 32638243 33418384 33688435 33888465 34078469 34298438 34478395 34558354 34218279 33648159 32787979 32578001 32178055 31788083 31798131 32638243 Read more

MD 1651 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 527... FOR SOUTHWEST KANSAS...OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE...NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE...NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA
Mesoscale Discussion 1651 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0449 PM CDT Thu Jul 20 2023 Areas affected...Southwest Kansas...Oklahoma Panhandle...northern Texas Panhandle...northwest Oklahoma Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 527... Valid 202149Z - 202345Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 527 continues. SUMMARY...All severe hazards will be possible late this afternoon and evening. Very large hail threat will focus in southwest Kansas near Dodge City. Tornado threat will focus along a surface boundary in the combined Panhandles. The primary hazard will eventually be severe (potentially significant) wind gusts as an MCS organizes and moves out of southeast Colorado. DISCUSSION...An ongoing, intense supercell continues across parts of southwest Kansas just north of Garden City. Hail of 1.75-2.5 inches has already been reported with this storm and current dual-pol radar presentation from KDDC would suggest very large hail remains a potential threat. Furthermore, a tornado has been reported with this storm as well. This storms and any other that develop nearby are the greatest short-term severe threat. Later this evening, convection that is ongoing in eastern Colorado is expected to grow upscale. Temperatures near 90F and dewpoints in the upper 60s to low 70s F will support moderate to strong buoyancy late this afternoon and evening. Combined with strong northwesterly effective shear, this environment will support potential for an intense line of storms capable of scattered severe wind gusts (some of which may exceed 75 mph). Given the linear storm mode expected, the tornado threat will be somewhat modulated. The greatest threat for a tornado or two would be along and just north of the surface boundary into the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles. ..Wendt.. 07/20/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...GLD...AMA... LAT...LON 36619841 35969900 35699948 35720080 36050165 36400186 37440197 38170198 38610183 38760140 38740051 37939893 37149850 36619841 Read more