Severe Storms

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0944 AM CST Fri Nov 10 2023 Valid 101700Z - 111200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The current D1 Fire Weather Outlook remains on track with no updates needed. See previous discussion below. ..Thornton.. 11/10/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0101 AM CST Fri Nov 10 2023/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain limited for today. Weak lee troughing across the High Plains may support areas of dry and breezy conditions, but the potential for meteorological conditions maintaining elevated wind/RH thresholds appears low. Offshore flow may persist during the morning and early afternoon hours across the southern CA coast, but elevated wind/RH conditions are expected to remain fairly localized to the higher, typically wind-prone, terrain. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0924 AM CST Fri Nov 10 2023 Valid 101630Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated lightning flashes will be possible along parts of the Gulf coast, far west Texas/southern New Mexico, and the Olympic Peninsula of Washington. ...Synopsis... Mainly zonal flow aloft will overspread the CONUS, with mid-level troughs overspreading the Southwest and impinging on the Pacific Northwest through today. Surface high pressure and associated cooler air will reinforce static stability across most of the CONUS, limiting thunderstorm potential. A few lightning flashes remain possible over southern NM/Far West TX for a few more hours, before mid-level trough de-amplification reduces the thunderstorm threat. Otherwise, a few flashes remains possible for the remainder of the Day 1 period over parts of the Gulf Coast, given weak moisture advection atop a southward-sagging cold front. Finally, a few lightning flashes may occur across far northwest WA with the approach of a mid-level trough. ..Squitieri.. 11/10/2023 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0924 AM CST Fri Nov 10 2023 Valid 101630Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated lightning flashes will be possible along parts of the Gulf coast, far west Texas/southern New Mexico, and the Olympic Peninsula of Washington. ...Synopsis... Mainly zonal flow aloft will overspread the CONUS, with mid-level troughs overspreading the Southwest and impinging on the Pacific Northwest through today. Surface high pressure and associated cooler air will reinforce static stability across most of the CONUS, limiting thunderstorm potential. A few lightning flashes remain possible over southern NM/Far West TX for a few more hours, before mid-level trough de-amplification reduces the thunderstorm threat. Otherwise, a few flashes remains possible for the remainder of the Day 1 period over parts of the Gulf Coast, given weak moisture advection atop a southward-sagging cold front. Finally, a few lightning flashes may occur across far northwest WA with the approach of a mid-level trough. ..Squitieri.. 11/10/2023 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0924 AM CST Fri Nov 10 2023 Valid 101630Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated lightning flashes will be possible along parts of the Gulf coast, far west Texas/southern New Mexico, and the Olympic Peninsula of Washington. ...Synopsis... Mainly zonal flow aloft will overspread the CONUS, with mid-level troughs overspreading the Southwest and impinging on the Pacific Northwest through today. Surface high pressure and associated cooler air will reinforce static stability across most of the CONUS, limiting thunderstorm potential. A few lightning flashes remain possible over southern NM/Far West TX for a few more hours, before mid-level trough de-amplification reduces the thunderstorm threat. Otherwise, a few flashes remains possible for the remainder of the Day 1 period over parts of the Gulf Coast, given weak moisture advection atop a southward-sagging cold front. Finally, a few lightning flashes may occur across far northwest WA with the approach of a mid-level trough. ..Squitieri.. 11/10/2023 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0924 AM CST Fri Nov 10 2023 Valid 101630Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated lightning flashes will be possible along parts of the Gulf coast, far west Texas/southern New Mexico, and the Olympic Peninsula of Washington. ...Synopsis... Mainly zonal flow aloft will overspread the CONUS, with mid-level troughs overspreading the Southwest and impinging on the Pacific Northwest through today. Surface high pressure and associated cooler air will reinforce static stability across most of the CONUS, limiting thunderstorm potential. A few lightning flashes remain possible over southern NM/Far West TX for a few more hours, before mid-level trough de-amplification reduces the thunderstorm threat. Otherwise, a few flashes remains possible for the remainder of the Day 1 period over parts of the Gulf Coast, given weak moisture advection atop a southward-sagging cold front. Finally, a few lightning flashes may occur across far northwest WA with the approach of a mid-level trough. ..Squitieri.. 11/10/2023 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0924 AM CST Fri Nov 10 2023 Valid 101630Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated lightning flashes will be possible along parts of the Gulf coast, far west Texas/southern New Mexico, and the Olympic Peninsula of Washington. ...Synopsis... Mainly zonal flow aloft will overspread the CONUS, with mid-level troughs overspreading the Southwest and impinging on the Pacific Northwest through today. Surface high pressure and associated cooler air will reinforce static stability across most of the CONUS, limiting thunderstorm potential. A few lightning flashes remain possible over southern NM/Far West TX for a few more hours, before mid-level trough de-amplification reduces the thunderstorm threat. Otherwise, a few flashes remains possible for the remainder of the Day 1 period over parts of the Gulf Coast, given weak moisture advection atop a southward-sagging cold front. Finally, a few lightning flashes may occur across far northwest WA with the approach of a mid-level trough. ..Squitieri.. 11/10/2023 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0924 AM CST Fri Nov 10 2023 Valid 101630Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated lightning flashes will be possible along parts of the Gulf coast, far west Texas/southern New Mexico, and the Olympic Peninsula of Washington. ...Synopsis... Mainly zonal flow aloft will overspread the CONUS, with mid-level troughs overspreading the Southwest and impinging on the Pacific Northwest through today. Surface high pressure and associated cooler air will reinforce static stability across most of the CONUS, limiting thunderstorm potential. A few lightning flashes remain possible over southern NM/Far West TX for a few more hours, before mid-level trough de-amplification reduces the thunderstorm threat. Otherwise, a few flashes remains possible for the remainder of the Day 1 period over parts of the Gulf Coast, given weak moisture advection atop a southward-sagging cold front. Finally, a few lightning flashes may occur across far northwest WA with the approach of a mid-level trough. ..Squitieri.. 11/10/2023 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook RESENT 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0847 AM CST Fri Nov 10 2023 Valid 131200Z - 181200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Monday/Day 4 to Wednesday/Day 6... An upper-level trough is forecast to move from the middle Rio Grande Valley on Monday to the Lower Mississippi Valley on Tuesday, and to the eastern Gulf Coast states by Wednesday. A moist airmass is forecast to advect northward into the central Gulf Coast ahead of the approaching trough. Increasing low-level flow across the western Gulf of Mexico Monday will make conditions favorable for MCS development. The MCS will likely move eastward across the northern Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday. Surface dewpoints could reach the lower to mid 60s F across the central Gulf Coast just ahead of the trough during the day. The northern part of the MCS could first affect southeastern Louisiana on Tuesday, and then move across far southern Mississippi, far southern Alabama and the Florida Panhandle Tuesday night. Wednesday, thunderstorms may develop across parts of the Florida Peninsula. Although a severe weather threat can not be ruled out, the models have some variance concerning the quality of low-level moisture ahead of the system. If the more aggressive solutions pan out, then a marginal tornado threat would be possible on Tuesday across the central Gulf Coast. The current thinking is that the higher quality low-level moisture and more significant part of the MCS will remain offshore, keeping any severe threat over the water. ...Thursday/Day 7 and Friday/Day 8... An upper-level trough is forecast to develop across the central U.S. on Thursday, and move into the eastern U.S. on Friday. The shortwave trough in the Southeast is forecast to move eastward into the western Atlantic. In the wake of this system, instability is forecast to be limited across the Gulf Coast states and along the Atlantic Seaboard, minimizing any potential for thunderstorm development. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook RESENT 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0847 AM CST Fri Nov 10 2023 Valid 131200Z - 181200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Monday/Day 4 to Wednesday/Day 6... An upper-level trough is forecast to move from the middle Rio Grande Valley on Monday to the Lower Mississippi Valley on Tuesday, and to the eastern Gulf Coast states by Wednesday. A moist airmass is forecast to advect northward into the central Gulf Coast ahead of the approaching trough. Increasing low-level flow across the western Gulf of Mexico Monday will make conditions favorable for MCS development. The MCS will likely move eastward across the northern Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday. Surface dewpoints could reach the lower to mid 60s F across the central Gulf Coast just ahead of the trough during the day. The northern part of the MCS could first affect southeastern Louisiana on Tuesday, and then move across far southern Mississippi, far southern Alabama and the Florida Panhandle Tuesday night. Wednesday, thunderstorms may develop across parts of the Florida Peninsula. Although a severe weather threat can not be ruled out, the models have some variance concerning the quality of low-level moisture ahead of the system. If the more aggressive solutions pan out, then a marginal tornado threat would be possible on Tuesday across the central Gulf Coast. The current thinking is that the higher quality low-level moisture and more significant part of the MCS will remain offshore, keeping any severe threat over the water. ...Thursday/Day 7 and Friday/Day 8... An upper-level trough is forecast to develop across the central U.S. on Thursday, and move into the eastern U.S. on Friday. The shortwave trough in the Southeast is forecast to move eastward into the western Atlantic. In the wake of this system, instability is forecast to be limited across the Gulf Coast states and along the Atlantic Seaboard, minimizing any potential for thunderstorm development. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook RESENT 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0847 AM CST Fri Nov 10 2023 Valid 131200Z - 181200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Monday/Day 4 to Wednesday/Day 6... An upper-level trough is forecast to move from the middle Rio Grande Valley on Monday to the Lower Mississippi Valley on Tuesday, and to the eastern Gulf Coast states by Wednesday. A moist airmass is forecast to advect northward into the central Gulf Coast ahead of the approaching trough. Increasing low-level flow across the western Gulf of Mexico Monday will make conditions favorable for MCS development. The MCS will likely move eastward across the northern Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday. Surface dewpoints could reach the lower to mid 60s F across the central Gulf Coast just ahead of the trough during the day. The northern part of the MCS could first affect southeastern Louisiana on Tuesday, and then move across far southern Mississippi, far southern Alabama and the Florida Panhandle Tuesday night. Wednesday, thunderstorms may develop across parts of the Florida Peninsula. Although a severe weather threat can not be ruled out, the models have some variance concerning the quality of low-level moisture ahead of the system. If the more aggressive solutions pan out, then a marginal tornado threat would be possible on Tuesday across the central Gulf Coast. The current thinking is that the higher quality low-level moisture and more significant part of the MCS will remain offshore, keeping any severe threat over the water. ...Thursday/Day 7 and Friday/Day 8... An upper-level trough is forecast to develop across the central U.S. on Thursday, and move into the eastern U.S. on Friday. The shortwave trough in the Southeast is forecast to move eastward into the western Atlantic. In the wake of this system, instability is forecast to be limited across the Gulf Coast states and along the Atlantic Seaboard, minimizing any potential for thunderstorm development. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook RESENT 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0847 AM CST Fri Nov 10 2023 Valid 131200Z - 181200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Monday/Day 4 to Wednesday/Day 6... An upper-level trough is forecast to move from the middle Rio Grande Valley on Monday to the Lower Mississippi Valley on Tuesday, and to the eastern Gulf Coast states by Wednesday. A moist airmass is forecast to advect northward into the central Gulf Coast ahead of the approaching trough. Increasing low-level flow across the western Gulf of Mexico Monday will make conditions favorable for MCS development. The MCS will likely move eastward across the northern Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday. Surface dewpoints could reach the lower to mid 60s F across the central Gulf Coast just ahead of the trough during the day. The northern part of the MCS could first affect southeastern Louisiana on Tuesday, and then move across far southern Mississippi, far southern Alabama and the Florida Panhandle Tuesday night. Wednesday, thunderstorms may develop across parts of the Florida Peninsula. Although a severe weather threat can not be ruled out, the models have some variance concerning the quality of low-level moisture ahead of the system. If the more aggressive solutions pan out, then a marginal tornado threat would be possible on Tuesday across the central Gulf Coast. The current thinking is that the higher quality low-level moisture and more significant part of the MCS will remain offshore, keeping any severe threat over the water. ...Thursday/Day 7 and Friday/Day 8... An upper-level trough is forecast to develop across the central U.S. on Thursday, and move into the eastern U.S. on Friday. The shortwave trough in the Southeast is forecast to move eastward into the western Atlantic. In the wake of this system, instability is forecast to be limited across the Gulf Coast states and along the Atlantic Seaboard, minimizing any potential for thunderstorm development. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook RESENT 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0847 AM CST Fri Nov 10 2023 Valid 131200Z - 181200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Monday/Day 4 to Wednesday/Day 6... An upper-level trough is forecast to move from the middle Rio Grande Valley on Monday to the Lower Mississippi Valley on Tuesday, and to the eastern Gulf Coast states by Wednesday. A moist airmass is forecast to advect northward into the central Gulf Coast ahead of the approaching trough. Increasing low-level flow across the western Gulf of Mexico Monday will make conditions favorable for MCS development. The MCS will likely move eastward across the northern Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday. Surface dewpoints could reach the lower to mid 60s F across the central Gulf Coast just ahead of the trough during the day. The northern part of the MCS could first affect southeastern Louisiana on Tuesday, and then move across far southern Mississippi, far southern Alabama and the Florida Panhandle Tuesday night. Wednesday, thunderstorms may develop across parts of the Florida Peninsula. Although a severe weather threat can not be ruled out, the models have some variance concerning the quality of low-level moisture ahead of the system. If the more aggressive solutions pan out, then a marginal tornado threat would be possible on Tuesday across the central Gulf Coast. The current thinking is that the higher quality low-level moisture and more significant part of the MCS will remain offshore, keeping any severe threat over the water. ...Thursday/Day 7 and Friday/Day 8... An upper-level trough is forecast to develop across the central U.S. on Thursday, and move into the eastern U.S. on Friday. The shortwave trough in the Southeast is forecast to move eastward into the western Atlantic. In the wake of this system, instability is forecast to be limited across the Gulf Coast states and along the Atlantic Seaboard, minimizing any potential for thunderstorm development. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook RESENT 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0847 AM CST Fri Nov 10 2023 Valid 131200Z - 181200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Monday/Day 4 to Wednesday/Day 6... An upper-level trough is forecast to move from the middle Rio Grande Valley on Monday to the Lower Mississippi Valley on Tuesday, and to the eastern Gulf Coast states by Wednesday. A moist airmass is forecast to advect northward into the central Gulf Coast ahead of the approaching trough. Increasing low-level flow across the western Gulf of Mexico Monday will make conditions favorable for MCS development. The MCS will likely move eastward across the northern Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday. Surface dewpoints could reach the lower to mid 60s F across the central Gulf Coast just ahead of the trough during the day. The northern part of the MCS could first affect southeastern Louisiana on Tuesday, and then move across far southern Mississippi, far southern Alabama and the Florida Panhandle Tuesday night. Wednesday, thunderstorms may develop across parts of the Florida Peninsula. Although a severe weather threat can not be ruled out, the models have some variance concerning the quality of low-level moisture ahead of the system. If the more aggressive solutions pan out, then a marginal tornado threat would be possible on Tuesday across the central Gulf Coast. The current thinking is that the higher quality low-level moisture and more significant part of the MCS will remain offshore, keeping any severe threat over the water. ...Thursday/Day 7 and Friday/Day 8... An upper-level trough is forecast to develop across the central U.S. on Thursday, and move into the eastern U.S. on Friday. The shortwave trough in the Southeast is forecast to move eastward into the western Atlantic. In the wake of this system, instability is forecast to be limited across the Gulf Coast states and along the Atlantic Seaboard, minimizing any potential for thunderstorm development. Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook RESENT 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0847 AM CST Fri Nov 10 2023 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms will be possible along the lower Texas coast on Sunday, but no severe threat is expected. ...DISCUSSION... At mid-levels, a ridge will move into the Rockies on Sunday as northwest flow remains over much for the central U.S. A moist airmass will be in place across the Gulf of Mexico. At the western edge of the moist airmass, isolated weakly-forced thunderstorms will be possible along the lower Texas coast. No severe threat is expected across the continental U.S. on Sunday and Sunday night. ..Broyles.. 11/10/2023 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook RESENT 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0847 AM CST Fri Nov 10 2023 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms will be possible along the lower Texas coast on Sunday, but no severe threat is expected. ...DISCUSSION... At mid-levels, a ridge will move into the Rockies on Sunday as northwest flow remains over much for the central U.S. A moist airmass will be in place across the Gulf of Mexico. At the western edge of the moist airmass, isolated weakly-forced thunderstorms will be possible along the lower Texas coast. No severe threat is expected across the continental U.S. on Sunday and Sunday night. ..Broyles.. 11/10/2023 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook RESENT 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0847 AM CST Fri Nov 10 2023 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms will be possible along the lower Texas coast on Sunday, but no severe threat is expected. ...DISCUSSION... At mid-levels, a ridge will move into the Rockies on Sunday as northwest flow remains over much for the central U.S. A moist airmass will be in place across the Gulf of Mexico. At the western edge of the moist airmass, isolated weakly-forced thunderstorms will be possible along the lower Texas coast. No severe threat is expected across the continental U.S. on Sunday and Sunday night. ..Broyles.. 11/10/2023 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook RESENT 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0847 AM CST Fri Nov 10 2023 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms will be possible along the lower Texas coast on Sunday, but no severe threat is expected. ...DISCUSSION... At mid-levels, a ridge will move into the Rockies on Sunday as northwest flow remains over much for the central U.S. A moist airmass will be in place across the Gulf of Mexico. At the western edge of the moist airmass, isolated weakly-forced thunderstorms will be possible along the lower Texas coast. No severe threat is expected across the continental U.S. on Sunday and Sunday night. ..Broyles.. 11/10/2023 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook RESENT 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0847 AM CST Fri Nov 10 2023 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms will be possible along the lower Texas coast on Sunday, but no severe threat is expected. ...DISCUSSION... At mid-levels, a ridge will move into the Rockies on Sunday as northwest flow remains over much for the central U.S. A moist airmass will be in place across the Gulf of Mexico. At the western edge of the moist airmass, isolated weakly-forced thunderstorms will be possible along the lower Texas coast. No severe threat is expected across the continental U.S. on Sunday and Sunday night. ..Broyles.. 11/10/2023 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook RESENT 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0847 AM CST Fri Nov 10 2023 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms will be possible along the lower Texas coast on Sunday, but no severe threat is expected. ...DISCUSSION... At mid-levels, a ridge will move into the Rockies on Sunday as northwest flow remains over much for the central U.S. A moist airmass will be in place across the Gulf of Mexico. At the western edge of the moist airmass, isolated weakly-forced thunderstorms will be possible along the lower Texas coast. No severe threat is expected across the continental U.S. on Sunday and Sunday night. ..Broyles.. 11/10/2023 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook RESENT 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0841 AM CST Fri Nov 10 2023 Valid 101300Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated lightning flashes will be possible along parts of the Gulf coast, far west Texas/southwest New Mexico, and the Olympic Peninsula of Washington. ...Synopsis... A slow-moving front along the northwest/north central Gulf coast may focus isolated thunderstorm development through the period. Any convection will be generally along and to the cool side of the surface front, where weak buoyancy aloft may be sufficient for charge separation and isolated lightning flashes. Farther west, isolated thunderstorms have been observed early this morning across southwest NM and far west TX. Weak elevated CAPE and ascent downstream from a southern stream shortwave trough could support a few additional thunderstorms the first half of the day, before the threat ends during the afternoon. Otherwise, isolated low-topped thunderstorms will be possible the last few hours of the forecast period across the Olympic Peninsula as a pronounced shortwave trough approaches coastal WA and Vancouver by 08-12z. Isolated lightning flashes earlier this morning near the WV/VA border have ended and no additional thunderstorm development is expected today. ..Thompson/Gleason.. 11/10/2023 Read more