Severe Storms

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0433 PM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025 Valid 181200Z - 241200Z ...Day 3/Friday... A mid-level short wave entering into the Pacific Northwest will bring increasing onshore flow and subsequent enhanced gap winds and dry downslope flow into the Columbia Basin and central OR, where expanding drought and dry fuels will promote wildfire spread. Farther southeast, elevated monsoon moisture and daytime instability over higher terrain along with some upper-level support from the incoming Pacific Northwest trough will instigate isolated high-based thunderstorms across portions of the northern Great Basin into southern ID and western WY. Northward transport of deeper monsoon moisture aided by a mid-level low over southern CA will continue to bring isolated to scattered thunderstorms with higher precipitation efficiency into the greater Four Corners region and southern Great Basin, limiting threat of widespread lightning ignitions. ...Day 4-6/Saturday-Monday... A deepening mid-level trough over the Pacific Northwest will usher in a multi-day fire weather threat into the northwestern U.S. and Great Basin regions over the weekend into early next week. Increasingly dry southwesterly flow will push residual monsoon moisture and thunderstorm threat primarily east of the Continental Divide by Day 6/Monday. The dry and breezy conditions will migrate southeastward starting with the Columbia basin and Snake River Plain on Day 4/Saturday before encompassing much of the Great Basin, northwestern UT and southeastern ID by Day 6/Monday. 40 percent probabilities for critical fire weather conditions have been added to the Great Basin region for Day 5-6/Sunday-Monday time frame. Meanwhile, the deepening mid-level trough over the Pacific Northwest will usher in cooler temperatures and higher humidity into the region early next week, mitigating fire weather concerns. ...Day 7-8/Tuesday-Wednesday... Uncertainty in timing regarding the lifting of the Pacific Northwest trough, rebuilding of the ridge across the Western U.S. and potential monsoon moisture surge into the Intermountain West limits introduction of critical fire weather probabilities at this time. ..Williams.. 07/16/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0433 PM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025 Valid 181200Z - 241200Z ...Day 3/Friday... A mid-level short wave entering into the Pacific Northwest will bring increasing onshore flow and subsequent enhanced gap winds and dry downslope flow into the Columbia Basin and central OR, where expanding drought and dry fuels will promote wildfire spread. Farther southeast, elevated monsoon moisture and daytime instability over higher terrain along with some upper-level support from the incoming Pacific Northwest trough will instigate isolated high-based thunderstorms across portions of the northern Great Basin into southern ID and western WY. Northward transport of deeper monsoon moisture aided by a mid-level low over southern CA will continue to bring isolated to scattered thunderstorms with higher precipitation efficiency into the greater Four Corners region and southern Great Basin, limiting threat of widespread lightning ignitions. ...Day 4-6/Saturday-Monday... A deepening mid-level trough over the Pacific Northwest will usher in a multi-day fire weather threat into the northwestern U.S. and Great Basin regions over the weekend into early next week. Increasingly dry southwesterly flow will push residual monsoon moisture and thunderstorm threat primarily east of the Continental Divide by Day 6/Monday. The dry and breezy conditions will migrate southeastward starting with the Columbia basin and Snake River Plain on Day 4/Saturday before encompassing much of the Great Basin, northwestern UT and southeastern ID by Day 6/Monday. 40 percent probabilities for critical fire weather conditions have been added to the Great Basin region for Day 5-6/Sunday-Monday time frame. Meanwhile, the deepening mid-level trough over the Pacific Northwest will usher in cooler temperatures and higher humidity into the region early next week, mitigating fire weather concerns. ...Day 7-8/Tuesday-Wednesday... Uncertainty in timing regarding the lifting of the Pacific Northwest trough, rebuilding of the ridge across the Western U.S. and potential monsoon moisture surge into the Intermountain West limits introduction of critical fire weather probabilities at this time. ..Williams.. 07/16/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0433 PM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025 Valid 181200Z - 241200Z ...Day 3/Friday... A mid-level short wave entering into the Pacific Northwest will bring increasing onshore flow and subsequent enhanced gap winds and dry downslope flow into the Columbia Basin and central OR, where expanding drought and dry fuels will promote wildfire spread. Farther southeast, elevated monsoon moisture and daytime instability over higher terrain along with some upper-level support from the incoming Pacific Northwest trough will instigate isolated high-based thunderstorms across portions of the northern Great Basin into southern ID and western WY. Northward transport of deeper monsoon moisture aided by a mid-level low over southern CA will continue to bring isolated to scattered thunderstorms with higher precipitation efficiency into the greater Four Corners region and southern Great Basin, limiting threat of widespread lightning ignitions. ...Day 4-6/Saturday-Monday... A deepening mid-level trough over the Pacific Northwest will usher in a multi-day fire weather threat into the northwestern U.S. and Great Basin regions over the weekend into early next week. Increasingly dry southwesterly flow will push residual monsoon moisture and thunderstorm threat primarily east of the Continental Divide by Day 6/Monday. The dry and breezy conditions will migrate southeastward starting with the Columbia basin and Snake River Plain on Day 4/Saturday before encompassing much of the Great Basin, northwestern UT and southeastern ID by Day 6/Monday. 40 percent probabilities for critical fire weather conditions have been added to the Great Basin region for Day 5-6/Sunday-Monday time frame. Meanwhile, the deepening mid-level trough over the Pacific Northwest will usher in cooler temperatures and higher humidity into the region early next week, mitigating fire weather concerns. ...Day 7-8/Tuesday-Wednesday... Uncertainty in timing regarding the lifting of the Pacific Northwest trough, rebuilding of the ridge across the Western U.S. and potential monsoon moisture surge into the Intermountain West limits introduction of critical fire weather probabilities at this time. ..Williams.. 07/16/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0433 PM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025 Valid 181200Z - 241200Z ...Day 3/Friday... A mid-level short wave entering into the Pacific Northwest will bring increasing onshore flow and subsequent enhanced gap winds and dry downslope flow into the Columbia Basin and central OR, where expanding drought and dry fuels will promote wildfire spread. Farther southeast, elevated monsoon moisture and daytime instability over higher terrain along with some upper-level support from the incoming Pacific Northwest trough will instigate isolated high-based thunderstorms across portions of the northern Great Basin into southern ID and western WY. Northward transport of deeper monsoon moisture aided by a mid-level low over southern CA will continue to bring isolated to scattered thunderstorms with higher precipitation efficiency into the greater Four Corners region and southern Great Basin, limiting threat of widespread lightning ignitions. ...Day 4-6/Saturday-Monday... A deepening mid-level trough over the Pacific Northwest will usher in a multi-day fire weather threat into the northwestern U.S. and Great Basin regions over the weekend into early next week. Increasingly dry southwesterly flow will push residual monsoon moisture and thunderstorm threat primarily east of the Continental Divide by Day 6/Monday. The dry and breezy conditions will migrate southeastward starting with the Columbia basin and Snake River Plain on Day 4/Saturday before encompassing much of the Great Basin, northwestern UT and southeastern ID by Day 6/Monday. 40 percent probabilities for critical fire weather conditions have been added to the Great Basin region for Day 5-6/Sunday-Monday time frame. Meanwhile, the deepening mid-level trough over the Pacific Northwest will usher in cooler temperatures and higher humidity into the region early next week, mitigating fire weather concerns. ...Day 7-8/Tuesday-Wednesday... Uncertainty in timing regarding the lifting of the Pacific Northwest trough, rebuilding of the ridge across the Western U.S. and potential monsoon moisture surge into the Intermountain West limits introduction of critical fire weather probabilities at this time. ..Williams.. 07/16/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0433 PM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025 Valid 181200Z - 241200Z ...Day 3/Friday... A mid-level short wave entering into the Pacific Northwest will bring increasing onshore flow and subsequent enhanced gap winds and dry downslope flow into the Columbia Basin and central OR, where expanding drought and dry fuels will promote wildfire spread. Farther southeast, elevated monsoon moisture and daytime instability over higher terrain along with some upper-level support from the incoming Pacific Northwest trough will instigate isolated high-based thunderstorms across portions of the northern Great Basin into southern ID and western WY. Northward transport of deeper monsoon moisture aided by a mid-level low over southern CA will continue to bring isolated to scattered thunderstorms with higher precipitation efficiency into the greater Four Corners region and southern Great Basin, limiting threat of widespread lightning ignitions. ...Day 4-6/Saturday-Monday... A deepening mid-level trough over the Pacific Northwest will usher in a multi-day fire weather threat into the northwestern U.S. and Great Basin regions over the weekend into early next week. Increasingly dry southwesterly flow will push residual monsoon moisture and thunderstorm threat primarily east of the Continental Divide by Day 6/Monday. The dry and breezy conditions will migrate southeastward starting with the Columbia basin and Snake River Plain on Day 4/Saturday before encompassing much of the Great Basin, northwestern UT and southeastern ID by Day 6/Monday. 40 percent probabilities for critical fire weather conditions have been added to the Great Basin region for Day 5-6/Sunday-Monday time frame. Meanwhile, the deepening mid-level trough over the Pacific Northwest will usher in cooler temperatures and higher humidity into the region early next week, mitigating fire weather concerns. ...Day 7-8/Tuesday-Wednesday... Uncertainty in timing regarding the lifting of the Pacific Northwest trough, rebuilding of the ridge across the Western U.S. and potential monsoon moisture surge into the Intermountain West limits introduction of critical fire weather probabilities at this time. ..Williams.. 07/16/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0433 PM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025 Valid 181200Z - 241200Z ...Day 3/Friday... A mid-level short wave entering into the Pacific Northwest will bring increasing onshore flow and subsequent enhanced gap winds and dry downslope flow into the Columbia Basin and central OR, where expanding drought and dry fuels will promote wildfire spread. Farther southeast, elevated monsoon moisture and daytime instability over higher terrain along with some upper-level support from the incoming Pacific Northwest trough will instigate isolated high-based thunderstorms across portions of the northern Great Basin into southern ID and western WY. Northward transport of deeper monsoon moisture aided by a mid-level low over southern CA will continue to bring isolated to scattered thunderstorms with higher precipitation efficiency into the greater Four Corners region and southern Great Basin, limiting threat of widespread lightning ignitions. ...Day 4-6/Saturday-Monday... A deepening mid-level trough over the Pacific Northwest will usher in a multi-day fire weather threat into the northwestern U.S. and Great Basin regions over the weekend into early next week. Increasingly dry southwesterly flow will push residual monsoon moisture and thunderstorm threat primarily east of the Continental Divide by Day 6/Monday. The dry and breezy conditions will migrate southeastward starting with the Columbia basin and Snake River Plain on Day 4/Saturday before encompassing much of the Great Basin, northwestern UT and southeastern ID by Day 6/Monday. 40 percent probabilities for critical fire weather conditions have been added to the Great Basin region for Day 5-6/Sunday-Monday time frame. Meanwhile, the deepening mid-level trough over the Pacific Northwest will usher in cooler temperatures and higher humidity into the region early next week, mitigating fire weather concerns. ...Day 7-8/Tuesday-Wednesday... Uncertainty in timing regarding the lifting of the Pacific Northwest trough, rebuilding of the ridge across the Western U.S. and potential monsoon moisture surge into the Intermountain West limits introduction of critical fire weather probabilities at this time. ..Williams.. 07/16/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0433 PM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025 Valid 181200Z - 241200Z ...Day 3/Friday... A mid-level short wave entering into the Pacific Northwest will bring increasing onshore flow and subsequent enhanced gap winds and dry downslope flow into the Columbia Basin and central OR, where expanding drought and dry fuels will promote wildfire spread. Farther southeast, elevated monsoon moisture and daytime instability over higher terrain along with some upper-level support from the incoming Pacific Northwest trough will instigate isolated high-based thunderstorms across portions of the northern Great Basin into southern ID and western WY. Northward transport of deeper monsoon moisture aided by a mid-level low over southern CA will continue to bring isolated to scattered thunderstorms with higher precipitation efficiency into the greater Four Corners region and southern Great Basin, limiting threat of widespread lightning ignitions. ...Day 4-6/Saturday-Monday... A deepening mid-level trough over the Pacific Northwest will usher in a multi-day fire weather threat into the northwestern U.S. and Great Basin regions over the weekend into early next week. Increasingly dry southwesterly flow will push residual monsoon moisture and thunderstorm threat primarily east of the Continental Divide by Day 6/Monday. The dry and breezy conditions will migrate southeastward starting with the Columbia basin and Snake River Plain on Day 4/Saturday before encompassing much of the Great Basin, northwestern UT and southeastern ID by Day 6/Monday. 40 percent probabilities for critical fire weather conditions have been added to the Great Basin region for Day 5-6/Sunday-Monday time frame. Meanwhile, the deepening mid-level trough over the Pacific Northwest will usher in cooler temperatures and higher humidity into the region early next week, mitigating fire weather concerns. ...Day 7-8/Tuesday-Wednesday... Uncertainty in timing regarding the lifting of the Pacific Northwest trough, rebuilding of the ridge across the Western U.S. and potential monsoon moisture surge into the Intermountain West limits introduction of critical fire weather probabilities at this time. ..Williams.. 07/16/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0433 PM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025 Valid 181200Z - 241200Z ...Day 3/Friday... A mid-level short wave entering into the Pacific Northwest will bring increasing onshore flow and subsequent enhanced gap winds and dry downslope flow into the Columbia Basin and central OR, where expanding drought and dry fuels will promote wildfire spread. Farther southeast, elevated monsoon moisture and daytime instability over higher terrain along with some upper-level support from the incoming Pacific Northwest trough will instigate isolated high-based thunderstorms across portions of the northern Great Basin into southern ID and western WY. Northward transport of deeper monsoon moisture aided by a mid-level low over southern CA will continue to bring isolated to scattered thunderstorms with higher precipitation efficiency into the greater Four Corners region and southern Great Basin, limiting threat of widespread lightning ignitions. ...Day 4-6/Saturday-Monday... A deepening mid-level trough over the Pacific Northwest will usher in a multi-day fire weather threat into the northwestern U.S. and Great Basin regions over the weekend into early next week. Increasingly dry southwesterly flow will push residual monsoon moisture and thunderstorm threat primarily east of the Continental Divide by Day 6/Monday. The dry and breezy conditions will migrate southeastward starting with the Columbia basin and Snake River Plain on Day 4/Saturday before encompassing much of the Great Basin, northwestern UT and southeastern ID by Day 6/Monday. 40 percent probabilities for critical fire weather conditions have been added to the Great Basin region for Day 5-6/Sunday-Monday time frame. Meanwhile, the deepening mid-level trough over the Pacific Northwest will usher in cooler temperatures and higher humidity into the region early next week, mitigating fire weather concerns. ...Day 7-8/Tuesday-Wednesday... Uncertainty in timing regarding the lifting of the Pacific Northwest trough, rebuilding of the ridge across the Western U.S. and potential monsoon moisture surge into the Intermountain West limits introduction of critical fire weather probabilities at this time. ..Williams.. 07/16/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0433 PM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025 Valid 181200Z - 241200Z ...Day 3/Friday... A mid-level short wave entering into the Pacific Northwest will bring increasing onshore flow and subsequent enhanced gap winds and dry downslope flow into the Columbia Basin and central OR, where expanding drought and dry fuels will promote wildfire spread. Farther southeast, elevated monsoon moisture and daytime instability over higher terrain along with some upper-level support from the incoming Pacific Northwest trough will instigate isolated high-based thunderstorms across portions of the northern Great Basin into southern ID and western WY. Northward transport of deeper monsoon moisture aided by a mid-level low over southern CA will continue to bring isolated to scattered thunderstorms with higher precipitation efficiency into the greater Four Corners region and southern Great Basin, limiting threat of widespread lightning ignitions. ...Day 4-6/Saturday-Monday... A deepening mid-level trough over the Pacific Northwest will usher in a multi-day fire weather threat into the northwestern U.S. and Great Basin regions over the weekend into early next week. Increasingly dry southwesterly flow will push residual monsoon moisture and thunderstorm threat primarily east of the Continental Divide by Day 6/Monday. The dry and breezy conditions will migrate southeastward starting with the Columbia basin and Snake River Plain on Day 4/Saturday before encompassing much of the Great Basin, northwestern UT and southeastern ID by Day 6/Monday. 40 percent probabilities for critical fire weather conditions have been added to the Great Basin region for Day 5-6/Sunday-Monday time frame. Meanwhile, the deepening mid-level trough over the Pacific Northwest will usher in cooler temperatures and higher humidity into the region early next week, mitigating fire weather concerns. ...Day 7-8/Tuesday-Wednesday... Uncertainty in timing regarding the lifting of the Pacific Northwest trough, rebuilding of the ridge across the Western U.S. and potential monsoon moisture surge into the Intermountain West limits introduction of critical fire weather probabilities at this time. ..Williams.. 07/16/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0433 PM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025 Valid 181200Z - 241200Z ...Day 3/Friday... A mid-level short wave entering into the Pacific Northwest will bring increasing onshore flow and subsequent enhanced gap winds and dry downslope flow into the Columbia Basin and central OR, where expanding drought and dry fuels will promote wildfire spread. Farther southeast, elevated monsoon moisture and daytime instability over higher terrain along with some upper-level support from the incoming Pacific Northwest trough will instigate isolated high-based thunderstorms across portions of the northern Great Basin into southern ID and western WY. Northward transport of deeper monsoon moisture aided by a mid-level low over southern CA will continue to bring isolated to scattered thunderstorms with higher precipitation efficiency into the greater Four Corners region and southern Great Basin, limiting threat of widespread lightning ignitions. ...Day 4-6/Saturday-Monday... A deepening mid-level trough over the Pacific Northwest will usher in a multi-day fire weather threat into the northwestern U.S. and Great Basin regions over the weekend into early next week. Increasingly dry southwesterly flow will push residual monsoon moisture and thunderstorm threat primarily east of the Continental Divide by Day 6/Monday. The dry and breezy conditions will migrate southeastward starting with the Columbia basin and Snake River Plain on Day 4/Saturday before encompassing much of the Great Basin, northwestern UT and southeastern ID by Day 6/Monday. 40 percent probabilities for critical fire weather conditions have been added to the Great Basin region for Day 5-6/Sunday-Monday time frame. Meanwhile, the deepening mid-level trough over the Pacific Northwest will usher in cooler temperatures and higher humidity into the region early next week, mitigating fire weather concerns. ...Day 7-8/Tuesday-Wednesday... Uncertainty in timing regarding the lifting of the Pacific Northwest trough, rebuilding of the ridge across the Western U.S. and potential monsoon moisture surge into the Intermountain West limits introduction of critical fire weather probabilities at this time. ..Williams.. 07/16/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0433 PM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025 Valid 181200Z - 241200Z ...Day 3/Friday... A mid-level short wave entering into the Pacific Northwest will bring increasing onshore flow and subsequent enhanced gap winds and dry downslope flow into the Columbia Basin and central OR, where expanding drought and dry fuels will promote wildfire spread. Farther southeast, elevated monsoon moisture and daytime instability over higher terrain along with some upper-level support from the incoming Pacific Northwest trough will instigate isolated high-based thunderstorms across portions of the northern Great Basin into southern ID and western WY. Northward transport of deeper monsoon moisture aided by a mid-level low over southern CA will continue to bring isolated to scattered thunderstorms with higher precipitation efficiency into the greater Four Corners region and southern Great Basin, limiting threat of widespread lightning ignitions. ...Day 4-6/Saturday-Monday... A deepening mid-level trough over the Pacific Northwest will usher in a multi-day fire weather threat into the northwestern U.S. and Great Basin regions over the weekend into early next week. Increasingly dry southwesterly flow will push residual monsoon moisture and thunderstorm threat primarily east of the Continental Divide by Day 6/Monday. The dry and breezy conditions will migrate southeastward starting with the Columbia basin and Snake River Plain on Day 4/Saturday before encompassing much of the Great Basin, northwestern UT and southeastern ID by Day 6/Monday. 40 percent probabilities for critical fire weather conditions have been added to the Great Basin region for Day 5-6/Sunday-Monday time frame. Meanwhile, the deepening mid-level trough over the Pacific Northwest will usher in cooler temperatures and higher humidity into the region early next week, mitigating fire weather concerns. ...Day 7-8/Tuesday-Wednesday... Uncertainty in timing regarding the lifting of the Pacific Northwest trough, rebuilding of the ridge across the Western U.S. and potential monsoon moisture surge into the Intermountain West limits introduction of critical fire weather probabilities at this time. ..Williams.. 07/16/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0433 PM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025 Valid 181200Z - 241200Z ...Day 3/Friday... A mid-level short wave entering into the Pacific Northwest will bring increasing onshore flow and subsequent enhanced gap winds and dry downslope flow into the Columbia Basin and central OR, where expanding drought and dry fuels will promote wildfire spread. Farther southeast, elevated monsoon moisture and daytime instability over higher terrain along with some upper-level support from the incoming Pacific Northwest trough will instigate isolated high-based thunderstorms across portions of the northern Great Basin into southern ID and western WY. Northward transport of deeper monsoon moisture aided by a mid-level low over southern CA will continue to bring isolated to scattered thunderstorms with higher precipitation efficiency into the greater Four Corners region and southern Great Basin, limiting threat of widespread lightning ignitions. ...Day 4-6/Saturday-Monday... A deepening mid-level trough over the Pacific Northwest will usher in a multi-day fire weather threat into the northwestern U.S. and Great Basin regions over the weekend into early next week. Increasingly dry southwesterly flow will push residual monsoon moisture and thunderstorm threat primarily east of the Continental Divide by Day 6/Monday. The dry and breezy conditions will migrate southeastward starting with the Columbia basin and Snake River Plain on Day 4/Saturday before encompassing much of the Great Basin, northwestern UT and southeastern ID by Day 6/Monday. 40 percent probabilities for critical fire weather conditions have been added to the Great Basin region for Day 5-6/Sunday-Monday time frame. Meanwhile, the deepening mid-level trough over the Pacific Northwest will usher in cooler temperatures and higher humidity into the region early next week, mitigating fire weather concerns. ...Day 7-8/Tuesday-Wednesday... Uncertainty in timing regarding the lifting of the Pacific Northwest trough, rebuilding of the ridge across the Western U.S. and potential monsoon moisture surge into the Intermountain West limits introduction of critical fire weather probabilities at this time. ..Williams.. 07/16/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

WW 0518 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 518 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NNE BMI TO 35 W VPZ TO 20 SE RAC. ..THORNTON..07/16/25 ATTN...WFO...LOT...DVN... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 518 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ILC053-075-091-162240- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE FORD IROQUOIS KANKAKEE INC007-073-089-111-127-162240- IN . INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BENTON JASPER LAKE NEWTON PORTER LMZ743-744-745-777-779-162240- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE CALUMET HARBOR IL TO GARY IN Read more

WW 0517 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 517 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 ESE JVL TO 25 SW OSH TO 35 E AUW. ..THORNTON..07/16/25 ATTN...WFO...ARX...GRB...MKX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 517 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS WIC009-015-027-039-055-059-061-071-079-087-089-101-117-127-131- 133-135-139-162240- WI . WISCONSIN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BROWN CALUMET DODGE FOND DU LAC JEFFERSON KENOSHA KEWAUNEE MANITOWOC MILWAUKEE OUTAGAMIE OZAUKEE RACINE SHEBOYGAN WALWORTH WASHINGTON WAUKESHA WAUPACA WINNEBAGO LMZ542-543-643-644-645-646-162240- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE STURGEON BAY TO TWO RIVERS WI TWO RIVERS TO SHEBOYGAN WI SHEBOYGAN TO PORT WASHINGTON WI Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Wed Jul 16 21:16:09 UTC 2025.

MD 1687 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 518... FOR NORTHERN/CENTRAL IL
Mesoscale Discussion 1687 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0208 PM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025 Areas affected...Northern/Central IL Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 518... Valid 161908Z - 162115Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 518 continues. SUMMARY...Strong to severe thunderstorms will continue for the next several hours across northern and central IL. DISCUSSION...Strong to severe thunderstorms have developed along a wind shift moving eastward across northern/central IL. Temperatures along and ahead of this wind shift have risen into the upper 80s/low 90s amid dewpoints in the mid 70s. Despite relatively poor mid-level lapse rates, these warm and moist surface conditions support MLCAPE around 2500 J/kg. The strongest storms are currently ongoing across northern IL, where stronger mid-level flow exists. These storms will likely persist as they move eastward over the next several hours. Hail and damaging gusts are possible with any of the more robust updrafts. Farther south, updraft strength and duration may be limited by the lack of stronger shear. Even so, given ample low-level moisture and strong to very strong buoyancy in place, updrafts could still be strong enough to produce water-loaded strong downbursts. ..Mosier.. 07/16/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...LSX...DVN... LAT...LON 42118909 42428853 42308782 41638767 40198852 39168996 39539062 40658968 42118909 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

MD 1689 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN WYOMING...EASTERN COLORADO AND FAR WESTERN NEBRASKA
Mesoscale Discussion 1689 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0236 PM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025 Areas affected...portions of southeastern Wyoming...eastern Colorado and far western Nebraska Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 161936Z - 162100Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Initial thunderstorms moving off the higher terrain in northern CO and southern WY should gradually organize into a mix of supercells and clusters this afternoon. Hail, severe wind gusts and a tornado or two are possible. DISCUSSION...Initial convective development across WY and CO has shown a steady increase in vertical development/lightning over the last hour. These initial storms should continue to intensify early this afternoon within a broad, but weak upslope flow regime. A stalled front along the I-25 corridor will likely serve as a focus for more robust thunderstorms over the next couple of hours as the environment continues to destabilize. As the initial convection matures, 40-50 kt of deep-layer flow will favor storm organization into supercells or clusters. Steep mid-level lapse rates (>8 C/km) and the potential for supercells suggest hail is likely with the stronger storms. A few hailstones may approach 2 inches in diameter. A few damaging gusts are also possible. While low-level shear is not overly strong, enhanced low-level vertical vorticity from terrain effects and near the stalled front could support a brief tornado. Severe potential is expected to steadily increase this afternoon and into this evening hours. With time, storms should begin to grow upscale with a greater risk for severe winds toward the eastern Plains. However, lingering inhibition and cooler temperatures to the east of the stalled front may hamper the severe threat to some degree. Regardless, a WW is likely needed along the Front Range and into parts of WY and far western NE in the coming hours. ..Lyons/Smith.. 07/16/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...GLD...PUB...BOU...CYS... LAT...LON 40360318 39480300 38810295 37880271 37280204 37050216 37030343 37260483 38630554 39260576 40760637 41930631 42560543 42350405 41500343 40360318 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more

MD 1688 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 517... FOR SOUTHERN WI
Mesoscale Discussion 1688 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 PM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025 Areas affected...Southern WI Concerning...Tornado Watch 517... Valid 161926Z - 162100Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 517 continues. SUMMARY...The threat for tornadoes and damaging downbursts will continue for at least the next several hours across southern WI. DISCUSSION...Two lines of thunderstorms are currently progressing northeastward across southern WI. The easternmost line is associated with earlier warm-air-advection-initiated storms while the westernmost line is along the wind shift close to the surface low. The airmass across the entire region is characterized by ample low-level moisture, robust low-level instability (i.e. 0-3km MLCAPE over 100 J/kg), and strong surface vorticity. These conditions led to the development of several tornadic supercells within the leading line. This trend will likely continue within both of these convective lines for at least the next few hours. As such, the tornado threat continues. Damaging gusts from strong downdrafts and isolated hail are possible as well. ..Mosier.. 07/16/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...GRB...MKX...ARX... LAT...LON 43989022 44348966 44238876 43648787 42678793 42558880 42618949 42929008 43489036 43989022 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

WW 0519 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0519 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0519 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0519 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more