Severe Storms

MD 1715 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 524... FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL NEBRASKA
Mesoscale Discussion 1715 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0901 PM CDT Fri Jul 18 2025 Areas affected...Parts of central Nebraska Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 524... Valid 190201Z - 190300Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 524 continues. SUMMARY...A localized corridor of greater tornado risk is evident in central Nebraska. This threat will persist for 1-2 more hours. DISCUSSION...A storm which has produced a few reported tornadoes over the last 30-45 minutes continues to move southward. The KLNX VAD has shown a steady increase in low-level SRH this evening as the low-level jet increases. Based on observed storm motion, SRH is higher than using standard Bunkers estimates. While a localized corridor of tornado risk is evident, this threat will likely only last another 1-2 hours before a gradual increase in MLCIN will mitigate this potential. Aside from the tornado threat, very large hail and severe winds could occur with this supercell. ..Wendt.. 07/19/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LBF... LAT...LON 41869942 41759976 41770019 42070026 42370028 42659992 42539950 41869942 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more

WW 0524 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 524 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..WENDT..07/19/25 ATTN...WFO...FSD...MPX...OAX...LBF... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 524 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IAC041-059-119-141-143-149-167-190340- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CLAY DICKINSON LYON O'BRIEN OSCEOLA PLYMOUTH SIOUX MNC013-015-033-043-063-081-083-091-101-103-105-117-127-129-133- 143-165-190340- MN . MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BLUE EARTH BROWN COTTONWOOD FARIBAULT JACKSON LINCOLN LYON MARTIN MURRAY NICOLLET NOBLES PIPESTONE REDWOOD RENVILLE ROCK SIBLEY WATONWAN NEC003-009-015-017-027-041-051-071-089-101-103-107-111-113-115- 117-135-139-149-171-179-183-190340- Read more

WW 0524 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 524 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..WENDT..07/19/25 ATTN...WFO...FSD...MPX...OAX...LBF... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 524 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IAC041-059-119-141-143-149-167-190340- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CLAY DICKINSON LYON O'BRIEN OSCEOLA PLYMOUTH SIOUX MNC013-015-033-043-063-081-083-091-101-103-105-117-127-129-133- 143-165-190340- MN . MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BLUE EARTH BROWN COTTONWOOD FARIBAULT JACKSON LINCOLN LYON MARTIN MURRAY NICOLLET NOBLES PIPESTONE REDWOOD RENVILLE ROCK SIBLEY WATONWAN NEC003-009-015-017-027-041-051-071-089-101-103-107-111-113-115- 117-135-139-149-171-179-183-190340- Read more

MD 1714 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR NORTH-CENTRAL NEBRASKA INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA
Mesoscale Discussion 1714 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0719 PM CDT Fri Jul 18 2025 Areas affected...North-central Nebraska into south-central South Dakota Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 190019Z - 190215Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...Though storm coverage is uncertain, some increase in severe potential is anticipated in parts of north-central Nebraska over the next few hours. A watch is possible. DISCUSSION...Signs of convective development are evident on visible satellite near a weak surface low in north-central Nebraska. Some high-based activity is also present farther southwest near North Platte. Strong buoyancy has developed in central Nebraska where temperatures have warmed into the mid/upper 80s F. Effective shear of 35-40 kts would support organized storms/supercells capable of mainly large hail and severe wind gusts. Temperatures aloft are warmer with southern extent which is contributing to slow development and uncertain storm coverage. However, a modest increase the low-level jet may help initiate additional storms by mid/late evening. ..Wendt/Hart.. 07/19/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...LBF...UNR... LAT...LON 41710169 42870017 43349943 43239804 42779784 42019903 41789973 41490057 41500173 41710169 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more

WW 0524 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0524 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0747 PM CDT Fri Jul 18 2025 Valid 190100Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN NE/IA TO SOUTHEAST SD AND SOUTHERN MN... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms with large hail, damaging winds, and a couple of tornadoes are possible across parts of the Corn Belt in Iowa, Minnesota, Nebraska, and South Dakota tonight. ...NE/IA/SD/MN... Initial thunderstorms along the eastern SD/southwest MN are expected to greatly expand to the southwest along a quasi-stationary front into the central High Plains, as a broad low-level jet strengthens from the southern High Plains across KS. With a pronounced gradient in mid/upper-level westerlies from south to north, a complex/messy convective mode evolution is anticipated with a mix of supercells evolving into predominantly clusters and a potential MCS overnight. With a substantial MLCAPE gradient oriented north/south in southern MN to northwest-southeast across IA, the most intense storms should remain centered on the Mid-MO Valley through NE. Sufficient low-level shear amid lower 70s surface dew points will foster some tornado risk through late evening in the Mid-MO Valley vicinity. Otherwise, initial large hail threat should transition to predominantly strong/severe gusts overnight, with a gradual weakening trend towards dawn in the IA vicinity. ...Eastern NC and southeast VA... Widely scattered multicell clusters which have produced sporadic wind damage along with measured strong gusts should continue towards the coast over the next few hours. This activity should gradually subside as it encounters pockets of previously overturned air. Locally damaging winds will remain possible until these clusters sufficiently weaken. ..Grams.. 07/19/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0747 PM CDT Fri Jul 18 2025 Valid 190100Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN NE/IA TO SOUTHEAST SD AND SOUTHERN MN... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms with large hail, damaging winds, and a couple of tornadoes are possible across parts of the Corn Belt in Iowa, Minnesota, Nebraska, and South Dakota tonight. ...NE/IA/SD/MN... Initial thunderstorms along the eastern SD/southwest MN are expected to greatly expand to the southwest along a quasi-stationary front into the central High Plains, as a broad low-level jet strengthens from the southern High Plains across KS. With a pronounced gradient in mid/upper-level westerlies from south to north, a complex/messy convective mode evolution is anticipated with a mix of supercells evolving into predominantly clusters and a potential MCS overnight. With a substantial MLCAPE gradient oriented north/south in southern MN to northwest-southeast across IA, the most intense storms should remain centered on the Mid-MO Valley through NE. Sufficient low-level shear amid lower 70s surface dew points will foster some tornado risk through late evening in the Mid-MO Valley vicinity. Otherwise, initial large hail threat should transition to predominantly strong/severe gusts overnight, with a gradual weakening trend towards dawn in the IA vicinity. ...Eastern NC and southeast VA... Widely scattered multicell clusters which have produced sporadic wind damage along with measured strong gusts should continue towards the coast over the next few hours. This activity should gradually subside as it encounters pockets of previously overturned air. Locally damaging winds will remain possible until these clusters sufficiently weaken. ..Grams.. 07/19/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0747 PM CDT Fri Jul 18 2025 Valid 190100Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN NE/IA TO SOUTHEAST SD AND SOUTHERN MN... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms with large hail, damaging winds, and a couple of tornadoes are possible across parts of the Corn Belt in Iowa, Minnesota, Nebraska, and South Dakota tonight. ...NE/IA/SD/MN... Initial thunderstorms along the eastern SD/southwest MN are expected to greatly expand to the southwest along a quasi-stationary front into the central High Plains, as a broad low-level jet strengthens from the southern High Plains across KS. With a pronounced gradient in mid/upper-level westerlies from south to north, a complex/messy convective mode evolution is anticipated with a mix of supercells evolving into predominantly clusters and a potential MCS overnight. With a substantial MLCAPE gradient oriented north/south in southern MN to northwest-southeast across IA, the most intense storms should remain centered on the Mid-MO Valley through NE. Sufficient low-level shear amid lower 70s surface dew points will foster some tornado risk through late evening in the Mid-MO Valley vicinity. Otherwise, initial large hail threat should transition to predominantly strong/severe gusts overnight, with a gradual weakening trend towards dawn in the IA vicinity. ...Eastern NC and southeast VA... Widely scattered multicell clusters which have produced sporadic wind damage along with measured strong gusts should continue towards the coast over the next few hours. This activity should gradually subside as it encounters pockets of previously overturned air. Locally damaging winds will remain possible until these clusters sufficiently weaken. ..Grams.. 07/19/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0747 PM CDT Fri Jul 18 2025 Valid 190100Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN NE/IA TO SOUTHEAST SD AND SOUTHERN MN... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms with large hail, damaging winds, and a couple of tornadoes are possible across parts of the Corn Belt in Iowa, Minnesota, Nebraska, and South Dakota tonight. ...NE/IA/SD/MN... Initial thunderstorms along the eastern SD/southwest MN are expected to greatly expand to the southwest along a quasi-stationary front into the central High Plains, as a broad low-level jet strengthens from the southern High Plains across KS. With a pronounced gradient in mid/upper-level westerlies from south to north, a complex/messy convective mode evolution is anticipated with a mix of supercells evolving into predominantly clusters and a potential MCS overnight. With a substantial MLCAPE gradient oriented north/south in southern MN to northwest-southeast across IA, the most intense storms should remain centered on the Mid-MO Valley through NE. Sufficient low-level shear amid lower 70s surface dew points will foster some tornado risk through late evening in the Mid-MO Valley vicinity. Otherwise, initial large hail threat should transition to predominantly strong/severe gusts overnight, with a gradual weakening trend towards dawn in the IA vicinity. ...Eastern NC and southeast VA... Widely scattered multicell clusters which have produced sporadic wind damage along with measured strong gusts should continue towards the coast over the next few hours. This activity should gradually subside as it encounters pockets of previously overturned air. Locally damaging winds will remain possible until these clusters sufficiently weaken. ..Grams.. 07/19/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0747 PM CDT Fri Jul 18 2025 Valid 190100Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN NE/IA TO SOUTHEAST SD AND SOUTHERN MN... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms with large hail, damaging winds, and a couple of tornadoes are possible across parts of the Corn Belt in Iowa, Minnesota, Nebraska, and South Dakota tonight. ...NE/IA/SD/MN... Initial thunderstorms along the eastern SD/southwest MN are expected to greatly expand to the southwest along a quasi-stationary front into the central High Plains, as a broad low-level jet strengthens from the southern High Plains across KS. With a pronounced gradient in mid/upper-level westerlies from south to north, a complex/messy convective mode evolution is anticipated with a mix of supercells evolving into predominantly clusters and a potential MCS overnight. With a substantial MLCAPE gradient oriented north/south in southern MN to northwest-southeast across IA, the most intense storms should remain centered on the Mid-MO Valley through NE. Sufficient low-level shear amid lower 70s surface dew points will foster some tornado risk through late evening in the Mid-MO Valley vicinity. Otherwise, initial large hail threat should transition to predominantly strong/severe gusts overnight, with a gradual weakening trend towards dawn in the IA vicinity. ...Eastern NC and southeast VA... Widely scattered multicell clusters which have produced sporadic wind damage along with measured strong gusts should continue towards the coast over the next few hours. This activity should gradually subside as it encounters pockets of previously overturned air. Locally damaging winds will remain possible until these clusters sufficiently weaken. ..Grams.. 07/19/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0747 PM CDT Fri Jul 18 2025 Valid 190100Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN NE/IA TO SOUTHEAST SD AND SOUTHERN MN... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms with large hail, damaging winds, and a couple of tornadoes are possible across parts of the Corn Belt in Iowa, Minnesota, Nebraska, and South Dakota tonight. ...NE/IA/SD/MN... Initial thunderstorms along the eastern SD/southwest MN are expected to greatly expand to the southwest along a quasi-stationary front into the central High Plains, as a broad low-level jet strengthens from the southern High Plains across KS. With a pronounced gradient in mid/upper-level westerlies from south to north, a complex/messy convective mode evolution is anticipated with a mix of supercells evolving into predominantly clusters and a potential MCS overnight. With a substantial MLCAPE gradient oriented north/south in southern MN to northwest-southeast across IA, the most intense storms should remain centered on the Mid-MO Valley through NE. Sufficient low-level shear amid lower 70s surface dew points will foster some tornado risk through late evening in the Mid-MO Valley vicinity. Otherwise, initial large hail threat should transition to predominantly strong/severe gusts overnight, with a gradual weakening trend towards dawn in the IA vicinity. ...Eastern NC and southeast VA... Widely scattered multicell clusters which have produced sporadic wind damage along with measured strong gusts should continue towards the coast over the next few hours. This activity should gradually subside as it encounters pockets of previously overturned air. Locally damaging winds will remain possible until these clusters sufficiently weaken. ..Grams.. 07/19/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0747 PM CDT Fri Jul 18 2025 Valid 190100Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN NE/IA TO SOUTHEAST SD AND SOUTHERN MN... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms with large hail, damaging winds, and a couple of tornadoes are possible across parts of the Corn Belt in Iowa, Minnesota, Nebraska, and South Dakota tonight. ...NE/IA/SD/MN... Initial thunderstorms along the eastern SD/southwest MN are expected to greatly expand to the southwest along a quasi-stationary front into the central High Plains, as a broad low-level jet strengthens from the southern High Plains across KS. With a pronounced gradient in mid/upper-level westerlies from south to north, a complex/messy convective mode evolution is anticipated with a mix of supercells evolving into predominantly clusters and a potential MCS overnight. With a substantial MLCAPE gradient oriented north/south in southern MN to northwest-southeast across IA, the most intense storms should remain centered on the Mid-MO Valley through NE. Sufficient low-level shear amid lower 70s surface dew points will foster some tornado risk through late evening in the Mid-MO Valley vicinity. Otherwise, initial large hail threat should transition to predominantly strong/severe gusts overnight, with a gradual weakening trend towards dawn in the IA vicinity. ...Eastern NC and southeast VA... Widely scattered multicell clusters which have produced sporadic wind damage along with measured strong gusts should continue towards the coast over the next few hours. This activity should gradually subside as it encounters pockets of previously overturned air. Locally damaging winds will remain possible until these clusters sufficiently weaken. ..Grams.. 07/19/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0747 PM CDT Fri Jul 18 2025 Valid 190100Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN NE/IA TO SOUTHEAST SD AND SOUTHERN MN... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms with large hail, damaging winds, and a couple of tornadoes are possible across parts of the Corn Belt in Iowa, Minnesota, Nebraska, and South Dakota tonight. ...NE/IA/SD/MN... Initial thunderstorms along the eastern SD/southwest MN are expected to greatly expand to the southwest along a quasi-stationary front into the central High Plains, as a broad low-level jet strengthens from the southern High Plains across KS. With a pronounced gradient in mid/upper-level westerlies from south to north, a complex/messy convective mode evolution is anticipated with a mix of supercells evolving into predominantly clusters and a potential MCS overnight. With a substantial MLCAPE gradient oriented north/south in southern MN to northwest-southeast across IA, the most intense storms should remain centered on the Mid-MO Valley through NE. Sufficient low-level shear amid lower 70s surface dew points will foster some tornado risk through late evening in the Mid-MO Valley vicinity. Otherwise, initial large hail threat should transition to predominantly strong/severe gusts overnight, with a gradual weakening trend towards dawn in the IA vicinity. ...Eastern NC and southeast VA... Widely scattered multicell clusters which have produced sporadic wind damage along with measured strong gusts should continue towards the coast over the next few hours. This activity should gradually subside as it encounters pockets of previously overturned air. Locally damaging winds will remain possible until these clusters sufficiently weaken. ..Grams.. 07/19/2025 Read more

MD 1712 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA
Mesoscale Discussion 1712 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0603 PM CDT Fri Jul 18 2025 Areas affected...Eastern South Dakota...southwest Minnesota Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 182303Z - 190100Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...Initial supercells will be capable of large hail, severe winds, and perhaps a tornado or two. Timing of widely scattered to scattered storm development is not clear, but should occur within the next few hours. Eventual upscale growth will lead to a greater wind threat with time. A watch is possible as convective trends warrant. DISCUSSION...Cloud cover has remained across eastern South Dakota this afternoon. This has hindered surface heating and several models are not handling this very well. Several CAM solutions from earlier today depicted storms would already be ongoing. Recent HRRR/RRFS runs suggest a more reasonable, later start. With a storm now having developed in northeast South Dakota, a gradual increase in storm coverage is probable over the next few hours. The 18Z OAX sounding showed a capping layer near 800 mb which likely extends northward to some extent. A subtle increase in mid-level ascent and a modest low-level jet this evening are the likely forcing mechanisms to help erode the modest capping. Given effective shear of 40-50 kts and MLCAPE of 1500-2000 J/kg, initial supercells will be capable of large hail and severe wind gusts. The increase in 850 mb flow this evening will enlarge low-level hodographs, but the overall tornado threat is less clear given the less than ideal low-level thermodyamic profiles. Convection is then expected to grow upscale by mid/late evening. Severe wind gusts would be the primary hazard after this occurs. ..Wendt/Hart.. 07/18/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MPX...FSD...ABR... LAT...LON 43859803 44189886 44349885 44639833 45309716 45519637 45219550 44849479 44759469 44599467 44049491 43729546 43519637 43589736 43859803 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more

MD 1713 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF SOUTHEAST VA INTO NORTHEAST NC
Mesoscale Discussion 1713 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0609 PM CDT Fri Jul 18 2025 Areas affected...Parts of southeast VA into northeast NC Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 182309Z - 190045Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Localized damaging wind remains possible early this evening. DISCUSSION...Multiple clusters of strong thunderstorms are ongoing early this evening across southeast VA into northeast NC. The environment across the region remains modestly favorable for organized convection, with rich low-level moisture, MLCAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg, and veering wind profiles resulting in effective shear of 20-30 kt. However, storm intensity and longevity have been somewhat limited thus far, potentially due to weak low-level flow and poor midlevel lapse rates. A storm cluster moving across south-central/southeast VA has gradually become better organized early this evening, and may remain capable of producing at least isolated wind damage as it moves eastward. Additional discrete cells developing ahead of this cluster have also intensified somewhat, and may merge into the larger cluster with time. These discrete cells may exhibit transient supercell characteristics in the presence of multiple surface boundaries, and be capable of producing localized wind damage and perhaps some hail. Other storm clusters are ongoing across parts of central into northeast NC. Deep-layer shear is somewhat weaker with southward extent, but these clusters will remain capable of producing localized wind damage before weakening later this evening. ..Dean/Hart.. 07/18/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...RNK... LAT...LON 35147732 35537917 37397851 37517708 37377632 36587588 35807562 35207721 35147732 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

MD 1711 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN KS
Mesoscale Discussion 1711 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0517 PM CDT Fri Jul 18 2025 Areas affected...Parts of central/eastern KS Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 182217Z - 190015Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Isolated strong to severe gusts and hail are possible into early evening. DISCUSSION...A small storm cluster that developed near the OK/KS border is propagating northeastward along an expanding outflow late this afternoon, with additional storm initiation noted into parts of east-central KS. A weak MCV is moving across the region, and may help to sustain scattered thunderstorms through the early evening. Storms approaching Wichita have a history of producing golf-ball sized hail and localized severe gusts. While deep-layer flow is relatively weak, modest veering with height is supporting effective shear of 20-30 kt, sufficient for at least transient storm organization in the presence of strong buoyancy (MLCAPE of greater than 3000 J/kg). The most likely hazard into early evening may be strong to severe gusts along the northeastward-moving outflow across south-central KS, and also with localized downbursts associated with the more discrete storms. However, isolated hail cannot be ruled out given the magnitude of buoyancy. ..Dean/Hart.. 07/18/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT... LAT...LON 37299812 38279837 39239763 39529700 39509623 39199596 38699591 37859649 37459685 37299732 37299812 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

No watches are valid as of Fri Jul 18 23:12:02 UTC 2025.

MD 1712 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA
Mesoscale Discussion 1712 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0603 PM CDT Fri Jul 18 2025 Areas affected...Eastern South Dakota...southwest Minnesota Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 182303Z - 190100Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...Initial supercells will be capable of large hail, severe winds, and perhaps a tornado or two. Timing of widely scattered to scattered storm development is not clear, but should occur within the next few hours. Eventual upscale growth will lead to a greater wind threat with time. A watch is possible as convective trends warrant. DISCUSSION...Cloud cover has remained across eastern South Dakota this afternoon. This has hindered surface heating and several models are not handling this very well. Several CAM solutions from earlier today depicted storms would already be ongoing. Recent HRRR/RRFS runs suggest a more reasonable, later start. With a storm now having developed in northeast South Dakota, a gradual increase in storm coverage is probable over the next few hours. The 18Z OAX sounding showed a capping layer near 800 mb which likely extends northward to some extent. A subtle increase in mid-level ascent and a modest low-level jet this evening are the likely forcing mechanisms to help erode the modest capping. Given effective shear of 40-50 kts and MLCAPE of 1500-2000 J/kg, initial supercells will be capable of large hail and severe wind gusts. The increase in 850 mb flow this evening will enlarge low-level hodographs, but the overall tornado threat is less clear given the less than ideal low-level thermodyamic profiles. Convection is then expected to grow upscale by mid/late evening. Severe wind gusts would be the primary hazard after this occurs. ..Wendt/Hart.. 07/18/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MPX...FSD...ABR... LAT...LON 43859803 44189886 44349885 44639833 45309716 45519637 45219550 44849479 44759469 44599467 44049491 43729546 43519637 43589736 43859803 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more

MD 1713 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF SOUTHEAST VA INTO NORTHEAST NC
Mesoscale Discussion 1713 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0609 PM CDT Fri Jul 18 2025 Areas affected...Parts of southeast VA into northeast NC Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 182309Z - 190045Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Localized damaging wind remains possible early this evening. DISCUSSION...Multiple clusters of strong thunderstorms are ongoing early this evening across southeast VA into northeast NC. The environment across the region remains modestly favorable for organized convection, with rich low-level moisture, MLCAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg, and veering wind profiles resulting in effective shear of 20-30 kt. However, storm intensity and longevity have been somewhat limited thus far, potentially due to weak low-level flow and poor midlevel lapse rates. A storm cluster moving across south-central/southeast VA has gradually become better organized early this evening, and may remain capable of producing at least isolated wind damage as it moves eastward. Additional discrete cells developing ahead of this cluster have also intensified somewhat, and may merge into the larger cluster with time. These discrete cells may exhibit transient supercell characteristics in the presence of multiple surface boundaries, and be capable of producing localized wind damage and perhaps some hail. Other storm clusters are ongoing across parts of central into northeast NC. Deep-layer shear is somewhat weaker with southward extent, but these clusters will remain capable of producing localized wind damage before weakening later this evening. ..Dean/Hart.. 07/18/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...RNK... LAT...LON 35147732 35537917 37397851 37517708 37377632 36587588 35807562 35207721 35147732 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

MD 1711 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN KS
Mesoscale Discussion 1711 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0517 PM CDT Fri Jul 18 2025 Areas affected...Parts of central/eastern KS Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 182217Z - 190015Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Isolated strong to severe gusts and hail are possible into early evening. DISCUSSION...A small storm cluster that developed near the OK/KS border is propagating northeastward along an expanding outflow late this afternoon, with additional storm initiation noted into parts of east-central KS. A weak MCV is moving across the region, and may help to sustain scattered thunderstorms through the early evening. Storms approaching Wichita have a history of producing golf-ball sized hail and localized severe gusts. While deep-layer flow is relatively weak, modest veering with height is supporting effective shear of 20-30 kt, sufficient for at least transient storm organization in the presence of strong buoyancy (MLCAPE of greater than 3000 J/kg). The most likely hazard into early evening may be strong to severe gusts along the northeastward-moving outflow across south-central KS, and also with localized downbursts associated with the more discrete storms. However, isolated hail cannot be ruled out given the magnitude of buoyancy. ..Dean/Hart.. 07/18/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT... LAT...LON 37299812 38279837 39239763 39529700 39509623 39199596 38699591 37859649 37459685 37299732 37299812 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more