Severe Storms

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CST Tue Mar 05 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL INTO WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms should develop Thursday afternoon through Thursday night across parts of the southern Plains to the ArkLaTex vicinity. Large hail should be the main threat. ...Southern Plains into the ArkLaTex... An upper trough/low initially centered over southern CA and northwest Mexico will traverse eastward across the Southwest and adjacent parts of northern Mexico on Thursday. Large-scale ascent preceding this upper trough will encourage lee cyclogenesis across the southern High Plains through Thursday evening. Modest low-level moisture, with surface dewpoints generally in the mid 50s to low 60s, should advance northward through the day across parts of TX into OK along and east of a surface dryline. A front is also forecast to sharpen on the northern edge of appreciable low-level moisture return across northern OK and southern KS. Elevated thunderstorms will probably be ongoing Thursday morning across parts of the southern/central Plains, with a generally low severe threat owing to weak MUCAPE forecast. There are still some differences in model guidance regarding the strength of the surface low across west TX, the placement of the dryline by late Thursday afternoon, and with the quality of low-level moisture return. Even with these continued uncertainties, weak to moderate instability should develop by peak afternoon heating along much of the length of the dryline, and south of the front in northern OK/southern KS. NAM forecast soundings across these areas show steep mid-level lapse rates present, along with strong deep-layer shear that should be more than sufficient for supercells. The primary uncertainty remains timing of surface-based convective initiation, and overall coverage given that the ejection of the upper trough across the southern High Plains is forecast to occur mainly Thursday night into early Friday morning. Still, any supercells that can develop should pose a threat for large hail and damaging winds. The tornado threat is less clear, with modest low-level moisture a potentially limiting factor. Regardless, a Slight Risk has been maintained where confidence is highest that convection will eventually develop through Thursday night. A broader Marginal Risk is in place across southern KS into OK/TX and the ArkLaTex where some potential for severe hail may exist, even though thunderstorms should have a tendency to remain elevated. ..Gleason.. 03/05/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CST Tue Mar 05 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL INTO WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms should develop Thursday afternoon through Thursday night across parts of the southern Plains to the ArkLaTex vicinity. Large hail should be the main threat. ...Southern Plains into the ArkLaTex... An upper trough/low initially centered over southern CA and northwest Mexico will traverse eastward across the Southwest and adjacent parts of northern Mexico on Thursday. Large-scale ascent preceding this upper trough will encourage lee cyclogenesis across the southern High Plains through Thursday evening. Modest low-level moisture, with surface dewpoints generally in the mid 50s to low 60s, should advance northward through the day across parts of TX into OK along and east of a surface dryline. A front is also forecast to sharpen on the northern edge of appreciable low-level moisture return across northern OK and southern KS. Elevated thunderstorms will probably be ongoing Thursday morning across parts of the southern/central Plains, with a generally low severe threat owing to weak MUCAPE forecast. There are still some differences in model guidance regarding the strength of the surface low across west TX, the placement of the dryline by late Thursday afternoon, and with the quality of low-level moisture return. Even with these continued uncertainties, weak to moderate instability should develop by peak afternoon heating along much of the length of the dryline, and south of the front in northern OK/southern KS. NAM forecast soundings across these areas show steep mid-level lapse rates present, along with strong deep-layer shear that should be more than sufficient for supercells. The primary uncertainty remains timing of surface-based convective initiation, and overall coverage given that the ejection of the upper trough across the southern High Plains is forecast to occur mainly Thursday night into early Friday morning. Still, any supercells that can develop should pose a threat for large hail and damaging winds. The tornado threat is less clear, with modest low-level moisture a potentially limiting factor. Regardless, a Slight Risk has been maintained where confidence is highest that convection will eventually develop through Thursday night. A broader Marginal Risk is in place across southern KS into OK/TX and the ArkLaTex where some potential for severe hail may exist, even though thunderstorms should have a tendency to remain elevated. ..Gleason.. 03/05/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CST Tue Mar 05 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL INTO WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms should develop Thursday afternoon through Thursday night across parts of the southern Plains to the ArkLaTex vicinity. Large hail should be the main threat. ...Southern Plains into the ArkLaTex... An upper trough/low initially centered over southern CA and northwest Mexico will traverse eastward across the Southwest and adjacent parts of northern Mexico on Thursday. Large-scale ascent preceding this upper trough will encourage lee cyclogenesis across the southern High Plains through Thursday evening. Modest low-level moisture, with surface dewpoints generally in the mid 50s to low 60s, should advance northward through the day across parts of TX into OK along and east of a surface dryline. A front is also forecast to sharpen on the northern edge of appreciable low-level moisture return across northern OK and southern KS. Elevated thunderstorms will probably be ongoing Thursday morning across parts of the southern/central Plains, with a generally low severe threat owing to weak MUCAPE forecast. There are still some differences in model guidance regarding the strength of the surface low across west TX, the placement of the dryline by late Thursday afternoon, and with the quality of low-level moisture return. Even with these continued uncertainties, weak to moderate instability should develop by peak afternoon heating along much of the length of the dryline, and south of the front in northern OK/southern KS. NAM forecast soundings across these areas show steep mid-level lapse rates present, along with strong deep-layer shear that should be more than sufficient for supercells. The primary uncertainty remains timing of surface-based convective initiation, and overall coverage given that the ejection of the upper trough across the southern High Plains is forecast to occur mainly Thursday night into early Friday morning. Still, any supercells that can develop should pose a threat for large hail and damaging winds. The tornado threat is less clear, with modest low-level moisture a potentially limiting factor. Regardless, a Slight Risk has been maintained where confidence is highest that convection will eventually develop through Thursday night. A broader Marginal Risk is in place across southern KS into OK/TX and the ArkLaTex where some potential for severe hail may exist, even though thunderstorms should have a tendency to remain elevated. ..Gleason.. 03/05/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CST Tue Mar 05 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL INTO WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms should develop Thursday afternoon through Thursday night across parts of the southern Plains to the ArkLaTex vicinity. Large hail should be the main threat. ...Southern Plains into the ArkLaTex... An upper trough/low initially centered over southern CA and northwest Mexico will traverse eastward across the Southwest and adjacent parts of northern Mexico on Thursday. Large-scale ascent preceding this upper trough will encourage lee cyclogenesis across the southern High Plains through Thursday evening. Modest low-level moisture, with surface dewpoints generally in the mid 50s to low 60s, should advance northward through the day across parts of TX into OK along and east of a surface dryline. A front is also forecast to sharpen on the northern edge of appreciable low-level moisture return across northern OK and southern KS. Elevated thunderstorms will probably be ongoing Thursday morning across parts of the southern/central Plains, with a generally low severe threat owing to weak MUCAPE forecast. There are still some differences in model guidance regarding the strength of the surface low across west TX, the placement of the dryline by late Thursday afternoon, and with the quality of low-level moisture return. Even with these continued uncertainties, weak to moderate instability should develop by peak afternoon heating along much of the length of the dryline, and south of the front in northern OK/southern KS. NAM forecast soundings across these areas show steep mid-level lapse rates present, along with strong deep-layer shear that should be more than sufficient for supercells. The primary uncertainty remains timing of surface-based convective initiation, and overall coverage given that the ejection of the upper trough across the southern High Plains is forecast to occur mainly Thursday night into early Friday morning. Still, any supercells that can develop should pose a threat for large hail and damaging winds. The tornado threat is less clear, with modest low-level moisture a potentially limiting factor. Regardless, a Slight Risk has been maintained where confidence is highest that convection will eventually develop through Thursday night. A broader Marginal Risk is in place across southern KS into OK/TX and the ArkLaTex where some potential for severe hail may exist, even though thunderstorms should have a tendency to remain elevated. ..Gleason.. 03/05/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CST Tue Mar 05 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL INTO WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms should develop Thursday afternoon through Thursday night across parts of the southern Plains to the ArkLaTex vicinity. Large hail should be the main threat. ...Southern Plains into the ArkLaTex... An upper trough/low initially centered over southern CA and northwest Mexico will traverse eastward across the Southwest and adjacent parts of northern Mexico on Thursday. Large-scale ascent preceding this upper trough will encourage lee cyclogenesis across the southern High Plains through Thursday evening. Modest low-level moisture, with surface dewpoints generally in the mid 50s to low 60s, should advance northward through the day across parts of TX into OK along and east of a surface dryline. A front is also forecast to sharpen on the northern edge of appreciable low-level moisture return across northern OK and southern KS. Elevated thunderstorms will probably be ongoing Thursday morning across parts of the southern/central Plains, with a generally low severe threat owing to weak MUCAPE forecast. There are still some differences in model guidance regarding the strength of the surface low across west TX, the placement of the dryline by late Thursday afternoon, and with the quality of low-level moisture return. Even with these continued uncertainties, weak to moderate instability should develop by peak afternoon heating along much of the length of the dryline, and south of the front in northern OK/southern KS. NAM forecast soundings across these areas show steep mid-level lapse rates present, along with strong deep-layer shear that should be more than sufficient for supercells. The primary uncertainty remains timing of surface-based convective initiation, and overall coverage given that the ejection of the upper trough across the southern High Plains is forecast to occur mainly Thursday night into early Friday morning. Still, any supercells that can develop should pose a threat for large hail and damaging winds. The tornado threat is less clear, with modest low-level moisture a potentially limiting factor. Regardless, a Slight Risk has been maintained where confidence is highest that convection will eventually develop through Thursday night. A broader Marginal Risk is in place across southern KS into OK/TX and the ArkLaTex where some potential for severe hail may exist, even though thunderstorms should have a tendency to remain elevated. ..Gleason.. 03/05/2024 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0147 AM CST Tue Mar 05 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...Synopsis... A northern-stream midlevel shortwave trough will cross the northern Plains during the afternoon, while a related surface cyclone tracks northeastward from SD across northwestern MN. Along/east of the surface cyclone, a tightening pressure gradient, coupled with shallow boundary-layer mixing into a southerly low-level jet, will yield 20-25 mph sustained southerly surface winds (with gusts upwards of 45 mph) across portions of northeastern NE, eastern SD, far northwest IA, and western MN. While RH reductions will be limited, owing to slightly cool surface temperatures (especially with northward extent), high-resolution ensemble guidance suggests that 25-30 percent minimum RH is possible. As a result, an elevated wind-driven fire-weather risk is expected, given modestly receptive fuels across the region. Farther south, midlevel west-southwesterly flow will strengthen across the southern Rockies -- ahead of midlevel trough/low moving ashore over southern CA. In response, weak lee cyclogenesis is expected over eastern CO, favoring 15-20 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts) across the southern High Plains. Here, downslope warming/drying will contribute to 15 percent minimum RH, leading to elevated/locally critical fire-weather conditions during the afternoon. ..Weinman.. 03/05/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0147 AM CST Tue Mar 05 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...Synopsis... A northern-stream midlevel shortwave trough will cross the northern Plains during the afternoon, while a related surface cyclone tracks northeastward from SD across northwestern MN. Along/east of the surface cyclone, a tightening pressure gradient, coupled with shallow boundary-layer mixing into a southerly low-level jet, will yield 20-25 mph sustained southerly surface winds (with gusts upwards of 45 mph) across portions of northeastern NE, eastern SD, far northwest IA, and western MN. While RH reductions will be limited, owing to slightly cool surface temperatures (especially with northward extent), high-resolution ensemble guidance suggests that 25-30 percent minimum RH is possible. As a result, an elevated wind-driven fire-weather risk is expected, given modestly receptive fuels across the region. Farther south, midlevel west-southwesterly flow will strengthen across the southern Rockies -- ahead of midlevel trough/low moving ashore over southern CA. In response, weak lee cyclogenesis is expected over eastern CO, favoring 15-20 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts) across the southern High Plains. Here, downslope warming/drying will contribute to 15 percent minimum RH, leading to elevated/locally critical fire-weather conditions during the afternoon. ..Weinman.. 03/05/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0147 AM CST Tue Mar 05 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...Synopsis... A northern-stream midlevel shortwave trough will cross the northern Plains during the afternoon, while a related surface cyclone tracks northeastward from SD across northwestern MN. Along/east of the surface cyclone, a tightening pressure gradient, coupled with shallow boundary-layer mixing into a southerly low-level jet, will yield 20-25 mph sustained southerly surface winds (with gusts upwards of 45 mph) across portions of northeastern NE, eastern SD, far northwest IA, and western MN. While RH reductions will be limited, owing to slightly cool surface temperatures (especially with northward extent), high-resolution ensemble guidance suggests that 25-30 percent minimum RH is possible. As a result, an elevated wind-driven fire-weather risk is expected, given modestly receptive fuels across the region. Farther south, midlevel west-southwesterly flow will strengthen across the southern Rockies -- ahead of midlevel trough/low moving ashore over southern CA. In response, weak lee cyclogenesis is expected over eastern CO, favoring 15-20 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts) across the southern High Plains. Here, downslope warming/drying will contribute to 15 percent minimum RH, leading to elevated/locally critical fire-weather conditions during the afternoon. ..Weinman.. 03/05/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0147 AM CST Tue Mar 05 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...Synopsis... A northern-stream midlevel shortwave trough will cross the northern Plains during the afternoon, while a related surface cyclone tracks northeastward from SD across northwestern MN. Along/east of the surface cyclone, a tightening pressure gradient, coupled with shallow boundary-layer mixing into a southerly low-level jet, will yield 20-25 mph sustained southerly surface winds (with gusts upwards of 45 mph) across portions of northeastern NE, eastern SD, far northwest IA, and western MN. While RH reductions will be limited, owing to slightly cool surface temperatures (especially with northward extent), high-resolution ensemble guidance suggests that 25-30 percent minimum RH is possible. As a result, an elevated wind-driven fire-weather risk is expected, given modestly receptive fuels across the region. Farther south, midlevel west-southwesterly flow will strengthen across the southern Rockies -- ahead of midlevel trough/low moving ashore over southern CA. In response, weak lee cyclogenesis is expected over eastern CO, favoring 15-20 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts) across the southern High Plains. Here, downslope warming/drying will contribute to 15 percent minimum RH, leading to elevated/locally critical fire-weather conditions during the afternoon. ..Weinman.. 03/05/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0147 AM CST Tue Mar 05 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...Synopsis... A northern-stream midlevel shortwave trough will cross the northern Plains during the afternoon, while a related surface cyclone tracks northeastward from SD across northwestern MN. Along/east of the surface cyclone, a tightening pressure gradient, coupled with shallow boundary-layer mixing into a southerly low-level jet, will yield 20-25 mph sustained southerly surface winds (with gusts upwards of 45 mph) across portions of northeastern NE, eastern SD, far northwest IA, and western MN. While RH reductions will be limited, owing to slightly cool surface temperatures (especially with northward extent), high-resolution ensemble guidance suggests that 25-30 percent minimum RH is possible. As a result, an elevated wind-driven fire-weather risk is expected, given modestly receptive fuels across the region. Farther south, midlevel west-southwesterly flow will strengthen across the southern Rockies -- ahead of midlevel trough/low moving ashore over southern CA. In response, weak lee cyclogenesis is expected over eastern CO, favoring 15-20 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts) across the southern High Plains. Here, downslope warming/drying will contribute to 15 percent minimum RH, leading to elevated/locally critical fire-weather conditions during the afternoon. ..Weinman.. 03/05/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0147 AM CST Tue Mar 05 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...Synopsis... A northern-stream midlevel shortwave trough will cross the northern Plains during the afternoon, while a related surface cyclone tracks northeastward from SD across northwestern MN. Along/east of the surface cyclone, a tightening pressure gradient, coupled with shallow boundary-layer mixing into a southerly low-level jet, will yield 20-25 mph sustained southerly surface winds (with gusts upwards of 45 mph) across portions of northeastern NE, eastern SD, far northwest IA, and western MN. While RH reductions will be limited, owing to slightly cool surface temperatures (especially with northward extent), high-resolution ensemble guidance suggests that 25-30 percent minimum RH is possible. As a result, an elevated wind-driven fire-weather risk is expected, given modestly receptive fuels across the region. Farther south, midlevel west-southwesterly flow will strengthen across the southern Rockies -- ahead of midlevel trough/low moving ashore over southern CA. In response, weak lee cyclogenesis is expected over eastern CO, favoring 15-20 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts) across the southern High Plains. Here, downslope warming/drying will contribute to 15 percent minimum RH, leading to elevated/locally critical fire-weather conditions during the afternoon. ..Weinman.. 03/05/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0147 AM CST Tue Mar 05 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...Synopsis... A northern-stream midlevel shortwave trough will cross the northern Plains during the afternoon, while a related surface cyclone tracks northeastward from SD across northwestern MN. Along/east of the surface cyclone, a tightening pressure gradient, coupled with shallow boundary-layer mixing into a southerly low-level jet, will yield 20-25 mph sustained southerly surface winds (with gusts upwards of 45 mph) across portions of northeastern NE, eastern SD, far northwest IA, and western MN. While RH reductions will be limited, owing to slightly cool surface temperatures (especially with northward extent), high-resolution ensemble guidance suggests that 25-30 percent minimum RH is possible. As a result, an elevated wind-driven fire-weather risk is expected, given modestly receptive fuels across the region. Farther south, midlevel west-southwesterly flow will strengthen across the southern Rockies -- ahead of midlevel trough/low moving ashore over southern CA. In response, weak lee cyclogenesis is expected over eastern CO, favoring 15-20 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts) across the southern High Plains. Here, downslope warming/drying will contribute to 15 percent minimum RH, leading to elevated/locally critical fire-weather conditions during the afternoon. ..Weinman.. 03/05/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0144 AM CST Tue Mar 05 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...Synopsis... Embedded within a belt of strong midlevel westerly flow, a low-amplitude shortwave trough will track eastward across parts of SD and NE early in the period. At the same time, an attendant weak surface cyclone will move eastward across SD. Along the southern periphery of this feature, a modest pressure gradient and boundary-layer mixing into the strong flow aloft, will yield 15-20 mph sustained westerly surface winds (with higher gusts) across parts of northern NE and southern SD. While these winds will peak in the morning, they will likely overlap diurnally decreasing afternoon RH values of 15-20 percent for a couple hours. Given receptive fuels across the area, a brief period of elevated fire-weather conditions is expected. Farther south, moderate downslope flow off the southern Rockies will favor 15 percent afternoon RH across the southern High Plains. However, surface winds should remain too weak for an appreciable fire-weather risk. ..Weinman.. 03/05/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0144 AM CST Tue Mar 05 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...Synopsis... Embedded within a belt of strong midlevel westerly flow, a low-amplitude shortwave trough will track eastward across parts of SD and NE early in the period. At the same time, an attendant weak surface cyclone will move eastward across SD. Along the southern periphery of this feature, a modest pressure gradient and boundary-layer mixing into the strong flow aloft, will yield 15-20 mph sustained westerly surface winds (with higher gusts) across parts of northern NE and southern SD. While these winds will peak in the morning, they will likely overlap diurnally decreasing afternoon RH values of 15-20 percent for a couple hours. Given receptive fuels across the area, a brief period of elevated fire-weather conditions is expected. Farther south, moderate downslope flow off the southern Rockies will favor 15 percent afternoon RH across the southern High Plains. However, surface winds should remain too weak for an appreciable fire-weather risk. ..Weinman.. 03/05/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0144 AM CST Tue Mar 05 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...Synopsis... Embedded within a belt of strong midlevel westerly flow, a low-amplitude shortwave trough will track eastward across parts of SD and NE early in the period. At the same time, an attendant weak surface cyclone will move eastward across SD. Along the southern periphery of this feature, a modest pressure gradient and boundary-layer mixing into the strong flow aloft, will yield 15-20 mph sustained westerly surface winds (with higher gusts) across parts of northern NE and southern SD. While these winds will peak in the morning, they will likely overlap diurnally decreasing afternoon RH values of 15-20 percent for a couple hours. Given receptive fuels across the area, a brief period of elevated fire-weather conditions is expected. Farther south, moderate downslope flow off the southern Rockies will favor 15 percent afternoon RH across the southern High Plains. However, surface winds should remain too weak for an appreciable fire-weather risk. ..Weinman.. 03/05/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0144 AM CST Tue Mar 05 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...Synopsis... Embedded within a belt of strong midlevel westerly flow, a low-amplitude shortwave trough will track eastward across parts of SD and NE early in the period. At the same time, an attendant weak surface cyclone will move eastward across SD. Along the southern periphery of this feature, a modest pressure gradient and boundary-layer mixing into the strong flow aloft, will yield 15-20 mph sustained westerly surface winds (with higher gusts) across parts of northern NE and southern SD. While these winds will peak in the morning, they will likely overlap diurnally decreasing afternoon RH values of 15-20 percent for a couple hours. Given receptive fuels across the area, a brief period of elevated fire-weather conditions is expected. Farther south, moderate downslope flow off the southern Rockies will favor 15 percent afternoon RH across the southern High Plains. However, surface winds should remain too weak for an appreciable fire-weather risk. ..Weinman.. 03/05/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0144 AM CST Tue Mar 05 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...Synopsis... Embedded within a belt of strong midlevel westerly flow, a low-amplitude shortwave trough will track eastward across parts of SD and NE early in the period. At the same time, an attendant weak surface cyclone will move eastward across SD. Along the southern periphery of this feature, a modest pressure gradient and boundary-layer mixing into the strong flow aloft, will yield 15-20 mph sustained westerly surface winds (with higher gusts) across parts of northern NE and southern SD. While these winds will peak in the morning, they will likely overlap diurnally decreasing afternoon RH values of 15-20 percent for a couple hours. Given receptive fuels across the area, a brief period of elevated fire-weather conditions is expected. Farther south, moderate downslope flow off the southern Rockies will favor 15 percent afternoon RH across the southern High Plains. However, surface winds should remain too weak for an appreciable fire-weather risk. ..Weinman.. 03/05/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0144 AM CST Tue Mar 05 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...Synopsis... Embedded within a belt of strong midlevel westerly flow, a low-amplitude shortwave trough will track eastward across parts of SD and NE early in the period. At the same time, an attendant weak surface cyclone will move eastward across SD. Along the southern periphery of this feature, a modest pressure gradient and boundary-layer mixing into the strong flow aloft, will yield 15-20 mph sustained westerly surface winds (with higher gusts) across parts of northern NE and southern SD. While these winds will peak in the morning, they will likely overlap diurnally decreasing afternoon RH values of 15-20 percent for a couple hours. Given receptive fuels across the area, a brief period of elevated fire-weather conditions is expected. Farther south, moderate downslope flow off the southern Rockies will favor 15 percent afternoon RH across the southern High Plains. However, surface winds should remain too weak for an appreciable fire-weather risk. ..Weinman.. 03/05/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0144 AM CST Tue Mar 05 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...Synopsis... Embedded within a belt of strong midlevel westerly flow, a low-amplitude shortwave trough will track eastward across parts of SD and NE early in the period. At the same time, an attendant weak surface cyclone will move eastward across SD. Along the southern periphery of this feature, a modest pressure gradient and boundary-layer mixing into the strong flow aloft, will yield 15-20 mph sustained westerly surface winds (with higher gusts) across parts of northern NE and southern SD. While these winds will peak in the morning, they will likely overlap diurnally decreasing afternoon RH values of 15-20 percent for a couple hours. Given receptive fuels across the area, a brief period of elevated fire-weather conditions is expected. Farther south, moderate downslope flow off the southern Rockies will favor 15 percent afternoon RH across the southern High Plains. However, surface winds should remain too weak for an appreciable fire-weather risk. ..Weinman.. 03/05/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1200 AM CST Tue Mar 05 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...AND THE SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur Wednesday across parts of the Florida Peninsula and the southern Plains. Occasional large hail and gusty winds should be the main threats with this activity. ...Synopsis... An upper trough will move northeastward across the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic on Wednesday. A related, weak surface low is likewise forecast to develop northeastward from GA/SC into NC and southern VA through Wednesday evening. A moist low-level airmass will be in place across these areas ahead of a cold front. Still, greater instability (and isolated severe potential) is generally expected to remain over parts of FL, and offshore over the warmer Gulf Stream waters. Separate areas of thunderstorms may occur through the period across parts of coastal southern CA as an upper trough/low with associated cold mid-level temperatures moves eastward, and across parts of the Great Basin. Weak forecast instability over these regions should limit any appreciable severe threat. ...Central/South Florida... Cool temperatures at mid levels (500 mb temperatures around -10 to -12C) should aid in weak to moderate instability developing across parts of the FL Peninsula through Wednesday afternoon, although the potential for ongoing morning convection may hinder daytime heating to some extent. Still, ascent associated with the upper trough, and a related mid/upper-level jet, should help sustain thunderstorms moving eastward from the eastern Gulf across the FL Peninsula through the morning and perhaps early afternoon. Even though deep-layer shear may only strengthen to around 25-35 kt, somewhat elongated/straight hodographs at mid/upper levels may support an isolated hail threat with any of the stronger cores that can persist. Occasional damaging winds also appear possible with convective downdrafts as low-level lapse rates gradually steepen with daytime heating. The potential for redevelopment behind early-day convection appears rather uncertain/conditional, as the better forcing attendant to the upper trough should be moving northeastward and away from the FL Peninsula by Wednesday afternoon. ...Southern/Central Plains... Modest low-level moisture should advance northward across parts of the southern/central Plains through the period as weak cyclogenesis occurs over the southern High Plains. Even though large-scale ascent should remain modest beneath a strong southern-stream mid/ upper-level jet, some guidance suggests that robust convection may develop by late Wednesday afternoon across parts of north-central TX in the vicinity of a weak front/dryline intersection. Around 30-40 kt of deep-layer shear in combination with steepened low/mid-level lapse rates and at least weak instability should support some updraft organization if convection can initiate. Isolated large hail appears possible with the stronger cores, along with occasional severe winds. Have included a Marginal Risk across parts of north-central TX to account for this potential, although the overall threat remains somewhat conditional given nebulous large-scale forcing. Generally elevated convection may also occur across a broader part of the southern/central Plains Wednesday night into early Thursday morning as a southerly low-level jet strengthens across these regions. This activity should remain sub-severe, although small hail appears possible. ..Gleason.. 03/05/2024 Read more