Severe Storms

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0403 PM CST Mon Mar 04 2024 Valid 042000Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER A LARGE AREA FROM CENTRAL/EAST TEXAS INTO MOST OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... CORRECTED FOR TYPO ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon into tonight from parts of central Texas into the lower Mississippi Valley, as well as from the Ozarks into the Midwest. Large hail is expected to be the main threat, but strong/gusty winds and even a tornado may also occur. ...20Z Update... ...Eastern IA/Northern MO/Northern IL... Recent surface analysis places a low just south of the IL/WI/IA border intersection. A cold front extends southwestward from this low across northern MO and eastern KS, while a warm front extends eastward across northern IL and then arcs sharply northeastward over southern Lake Michigan. A few elevated storms have been noted near the surface low, with some deepening warm sector cumulus also ongoing from central MO into northern/central IL. As mentioned in MCD #0189, additional thunderstorm development is still expected along and just ahead of cold front from far eastern IA into northwest Illinois and northeast Missouri in the next 1-3 hours. Front-parallel orientation to the deep-layer vertical shear will likely lead to an undercutting of these storms, with a predominantly elevated storm mode anticipated. Even so, steep lapse rates will support some stronger updrafts capable of hail. Some damaging gusts are possible as well, particularly as cells interact with the cold front. ...East TX/LA/Western MS this afternoon and evening... Scattered thunderstorms are currently ongoing from East TX across much of LA, supported by southwesterly flow aloft and resultant warm-air advection. General expectation is for these storms to gradually shift northeastward into more of western MS over time, in tandem with the zone of most favorable warm-air advection. Modest vertical shear remains favorable for transient supercell structures and the threat for hail and damaging gusts. ...Eastern OK into Mid MS Valley this evening and overnight... Thunderstorm development along the front later this evening along the from southern MO into eastern OK remains uncertain, given the potential for warm mid-level temperatures and resulting capping. Additionally, vertical shear will be modest, with a resultant potential for the front to undercutting development. Even so, the warm and moist low-levels combined with steep mid-level lapse rates will support a conditional risk for severe hail. ..Mosier.. 03/04/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1000 AM CST Mon Mar 04 2024/ ...East TX/LA/Western MS Today... Moderately strong southern-stream mid-level flow is present today across the southern states, with several weak perturbations affecting the area. A warm and moist surface air mass is in place across east TX into LA, where dewpoints in the upper 60s and 70s will yield afternoon MLCAPE of 1500-2000 J/kg. Weak low-level warm advection is expected to result in increasing thunderstorm development this morning through the afternoon as storms spread eastward toward southwest MS. Deep-layer shear is sufficient for at least transient supercell structures, but relatively weak low-level winds suggest the main threats will be hail and gusty winds with the strongest cells. ...Eastern IA/Northern MO/Northern IL... A strong surface cold front is sagging southeastward across IA this morning into a marginally moist and unstable air mass. All 12z model guidance agrees on the development of showers and thunderstorms along the front by early afternoon, although many solutions suggest most of the activity will be behind the front and slightly elevated. Nevertheless, cool temperatures aloft and steep mid-level lapse rates will promote hail in the stronger cores. Storms that can form and persist ahead of the front would have some marginal concern for gusty winds and perhaps a brief tornado as well. ...Eastern OK into Mid MS Valley... Morning model guidance is quite diverse in the development of thunderstorms across this region, with low confidence in any particular area. Will maintain the ongoing MRGL area as a conditional risk if storms can form - mainly due to unseasonably warm and moist conditions and sufficient CAPE for some risk of hail. However, considerably uncertainty exists. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0403 PM CST Mon Mar 04 2024 Valid 042000Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER A LARGE AREA FROM CENTRAL/EAST TEXAS INTO MOST OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... CORRECTED FOR TYPO ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon into tonight from parts of central Texas into the lower Mississippi Valley, as well as from the Ozarks into the Midwest. Large hail is expected to be the main threat, but strong/gusty winds and even a tornado may also occur. ...20Z Update... ...Eastern IA/Northern MO/Northern IL... Recent surface analysis places a low just south of the IL/WI/IA border intersection. A cold front extends southwestward from this low across northern MO and eastern KS, while a warm front extends eastward across northern IL and then arcs sharply northeastward over southern Lake Michigan. A few elevated storms have been noted near the surface low, with some deepening warm sector cumulus also ongoing from central MO into northern/central IL. As mentioned in MCD #0189, additional thunderstorm development is still expected along and just ahead of cold front from far eastern IA into northwest Illinois and northeast Missouri in the next 1-3 hours. Front-parallel orientation to the deep-layer vertical shear will likely lead to an undercutting of these storms, with a predominantly elevated storm mode anticipated. Even so, steep lapse rates will support some stronger updrafts capable of hail. Some damaging gusts are possible as well, particularly as cells interact with the cold front. ...East TX/LA/Western MS this afternoon and evening... Scattered thunderstorms are currently ongoing from East TX across much of LA, supported by southwesterly flow aloft and resultant warm-air advection. General expectation is for these storms to gradually shift northeastward into more of western MS over time, in tandem with the zone of most favorable warm-air advection. Modest vertical shear remains favorable for transient supercell structures and the threat for hail and damaging gusts. ...Eastern OK into Mid MS Valley this evening and overnight... Thunderstorm development along the front later this evening along the from southern MO into eastern OK remains uncertain, given the potential for warm mid-level temperatures and resulting capping. Additionally, vertical shear will be modest, with a resultant potential for the front to undercutting development. Even so, the warm and moist low-levels combined with steep mid-level lapse rates will support a conditional risk for severe hail. ..Mosier.. 03/04/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1000 AM CST Mon Mar 04 2024/ ...East TX/LA/Western MS Today... Moderately strong southern-stream mid-level flow is present today across the southern states, with several weak perturbations affecting the area. A warm and moist surface air mass is in place across east TX into LA, where dewpoints in the upper 60s and 70s will yield afternoon MLCAPE of 1500-2000 J/kg. Weak low-level warm advection is expected to result in increasing thunderstorm development this morning through the afternoon as storms spread eastward toward southwest MS. Deep-layer shear is sufficient for at least transient supercell structures, but relatively weak low-level winds suggest the main threats will be hail and gusty winds with the strongest cells. ...Eastern IA/Northern MO/Northern IL... A strong surface cold front is sagging southeastward across IA this morning into a marginally moist and unstable air mass. All 12z model guidance agrees on the development of showers and thunderstorms along the front by early afternoon, although many solutions suggest most of the activity will be behind the front and slightly elevated. Nevertheless, cool temperatures aloft and steep mid-level lapse rates will promote hail in the stronger cores. Storms that can form and persist ahead of the front would have some marginal concern for gusty winds and perhaps a brief tornado as well. ...Eastern OK into Mid MS Valley... Morning model guidance is quite diverse in the development of thunderstorms across this region, with low confidence in any particular area. Will maintain the ongoing MRGL area as a conditional risk if storms can form - mainly due to unseasonably warm and moist conditions and sufficient CAPE for some risk of hail. However, considerably uncertainty exists. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0403 PM CST Mon Mar 04 2024 Valid 042000Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER A LARGE AREA FROM CENTRAL/EAST TEXAS INTO MOST OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... CORRECTED FOR TYPO ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon into tonight from parts of central Texas into the lower Mississippi Valley, as well as from the Ozarks into the Midwest. Large hail is expected to be the main threat, but strong/gusty winds and even a tornado may also occur. ...20Z Update... ...Eastern IA/Northern MO/Northern IL... Recent surface analysis places a low just south of the IL/WI/IA border intersection. A cold front extends southwestward from this low across northern MO and eastern KS, while a warm front extends eastward across northern IL and then arcs sharply northeastward over southern Lake Michigan. A few elevated storms have been noted near the surface low, with some deepening warm sector cumulus also ongoing from central MO into northern/central IL. As mentioned in MCD #0189, additional thunderstorm development is still expected along and just ahead of cold front from far eastern IA into northwest Illinois and northeast Missouri in the next 1-3 hours. Front-parallel orientation to the deep-layer vertical shear will likely lead to an undercutting of these storms, with a predominantly elevated storm mode anticipated. Even so, steep lapse rates will support some stronger updrafts capable of hail. Some damaging gusts are possible as well, particularly as cells interact with the cold front. ...East TX/LA/Western MS this afternoon and evening... Scattered thunderstorms are currently ongoing from East TX across much of LA, supported by southwesterly flow aloft and resultant warm-air advection. General expectation is for these storms to gradually shift northeastward into more of western MS over time, in tandem with the zone of most favorable warm-air advection. Modest vertical shear remains favorable for transient supercell structures and the threat for hail and damaging gusts. ...Eastern OK into Mid MS Valley this evening and overnight... Thunderstorm development along the front later this evening along the from southern MO into eastern OK remains uncertain, given the potential for warm mid-level temperatures and resulting capping. Additionally, vertical shear will be modest, with a resultant potential for the front to undercutting development. Even so, the warm and moist low-levels combined with steep mid-level lapse rates will support a conditional risk for severe hail. ..Mosier.. 03/04/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1000 AM CST Mon Mar 04 2024/ ...East TX/LA/Western MS Today... Moderately strong southern-stream mid-level flow is present today across the southern states, with several weak perturbations affecting the area. A warm and moist surface air mass is in place across east TX into LA, where dewpoints in the upper 60s and 70s will yield afternoon MLCAPE of 1500-2000 J/kg. Weak low-level warm advection is expected to result in increasing thunderstorm development this morning through the afternoon as storms spread eastward toward southwest MS. Deep-layer shear is sufficient for at least transient supercell structures, but relatively weak low-level winds suggest the main threats will be hail and gusty winds with the strongest cells. ...Eastern IA/Northern MO/Northern IL... A strong surface cold front is sagging southeastward across IA this morning into a marginally moist and unstable air mass. All 12z model guidance agrees on the development of showers and thunderstorms along the front by early afternoon, although many solutions suggest most of the activity will be behind the front and slightly elevated. Nevertheless, cool temperatures aloft and steep mid-level lapse rates will promote hail in the stronger cores. Storms that can form and persist ahead of the front would have some marginal concern for gusty winds and perhaps a brief tornado as well. ...Eastern OK into Mid MS Valley... Morning model guidance is quite diverse in the development of thunderstorms across this region, with low confidence in any particular area. Will maintain the ongoing MRGL area as a conditional risk if storms can form - mainly due to unseasonably warm and moist conditions and sufficient CAPE for some risk of hail. However, considerably uncertainty exists. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0403 PM CST Mon Mar 04 2024 Valid 042000Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER A LARGE AREA FROM CENTRAL/EAST TEXAS INTO MOST OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... CORRECTED FOR TYPO ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon into tonight from parts of central Texas into the lower Mississippi Valley, as well as from the Ozarks into the Midwest. Large hail is expected to be the main threat, but strong/gusty winds and even a tornado may also occur. ...20Z Update... ...Eastern IA/Northern MO/Northern IL... Recent surface analysis places a low just south of the IL/WI/IA border intersection. A cold front extends southwestward from this low across northern MO and eastern KS, while a warm front extends eastward across northern IL and then arcs sharply northeastward over southern Lake Michigan. A few elevated storms have been noted near the surface low, with some deepening warm sector cumulus also ongoing from central MO into northern/central IL. As mentioned in MCD #0189, additional thunderstorm development is still expected along and just ahead of cold front from far eastern IA into northwest Illinois and northeast Missouri in the next 1-3 hours. Front-parallel orientation to the deep-layer vertical shear will likely lead to an undercutting of these storms, with a predominantly elevated storm mode anticipated. Even so, steep lapse rates will support some stronger updrafts capable of hail. Some damaging gusts are possible as well, particularly as cells interact with the cold front. ...East TX/LA/Western MS this afternoon and evening... Scattered thunderstorms are currently ongoing from East TX across much of LA, supported by southwesterly flow aloft and resultant warm-air advection. General expectation is for these storms to gradually shift northeastward into more of western MS over time, in tandem with the zone of most favorable warm-air advection. Modest vertical shear remains favorable for transient supercell structures and the threat for hail and damaging gusts. ...Eastern OK into Mid MS Valley this evening and overnight... Thunderstorm development along the front later this evening along the from southern MO into eastern OK remains uncertain, given the potential for warm mid-level temperatures and resulting capping. Additionally, vertical shear will be modest, with a resultant potential for the front to undercutting development. Even so, the warm and moist low-levels combined with steep mid-level lapse rates will support a conditional risk for severe hail. ..Mosier.. 03/04/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1000 AM CST Mon Mar 04 2024/ ...East TX/LA/Western MS Today... Moderately strong southern-stream mid-level flow is present today across the southern states, with several weak perturbations affecting the area. A warm and moist surface air mass is in place across east TX into LA, where dewpoints in the upper 60s and 70s will yield afternoon MLCAPE of 1500-2000 J/kg. Weak low-level warm advection is expected to result in increasing thunderstorm development this morning through the afternoon as storms spread eastward toward southwest MS. Deep-layer shear is sufficient for at least transient supercell structures, but relatively weak low-level winds suggest the main threats will be hail and gusty winds with the strongest cells. ...Eastern IA/Northern MO/Northern IL... A strong surface cold front is sagging southeastward across IA this morning into a marginally moist and unstable air mass. All 12z model guidance agrees on the development of showers and thunderstorms along the front by early afternoon, although many solutions suggest most of the activity will be behind the front and slightly elevated. Nevertheless, cool temperatures aloft and steep mid-level lapse rates will promote hail in the stronger cores. Storms that can form and persist ahead of the front would have some marginal concern for gusty winds and perhaps a brief tornado as well. ...Eastern OK into Mid MS Valley... Morning model guidance is quite diverse in the development of thunderstorms across this region, with low confidence in any particular area. Will maintain the ongoing MRGL area as a conditional risk if storms can form - mainly due to unseasonably warm and moist conditions and sufficient CAPE for some risk of hail. However, considerably uncertainty exists. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0403 PM CST Mon Mar 04 2024 Valid 042000Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER A LARGE AREA FROM CENTRAL/EAST TEXAS INTO MOST OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... CORRECTED FOR TYPO ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon into tonight from parts of central Texas into the lower Mississippi Valley, as well as from the Ozarks into the Midwest. Large hail is expected to be the main threat, but strong/gusty winds and even a tornado may also occur. ...20Z Update... ...Eastern IA/Northern MO/Northern IL... Recent surface analysis places a low just south of the IL/WI/IA border intersection. A cold front extends southwestward from this low across northern MO and eastern KS, while a warm front extends eastward across northern IL and then arcs sharply northeastward over southern Lake Michigan. A few elevated storms have been noted near the surface low, with some deepening warm sector cumulus also ongoing from central MO into northern/central IL. As mentioned in MCD #0189, additional thunderstorm development is still expected along and just ahead of cold front from far eastern IA into northwest Illinois and northeast Missouri in the next 1-3 hours. Front-parallel orientation to the deep-layer vertical shear will likely lead to an undercutting of these storms, with a predominantly elevated storm mode anticipated. Even so, steep lapse rates will support some stronger updrafts capable of hail. Some damaging gusts are possible as well, particularly as cells interact with the cold front. ...East TX/LA/Western MS this afternoon and evening... Scattered thunderstorms are currently ongoing from East TX across much of LA, supported by southwesterly flow aloft and resultant warm-air advection. General expectation is for these storms to gradually shift northeastward into more of western MS over time, in tandem with the zone of most favorable warm-air advection. Modest vertical shear remains favorable for transient supercell structures and the threat for hail and damaging gusts. ...Eastern OK into Mid MS Valley this evening and overnight... Thunderstorm development along the front later this evening along the from southern MO into eastern OK remains uncertain, given the potential for warm mid-level temperatures and resulting capping. Additionally, vertical shear will be modest, with a resultant potential for the front to undercutting development. Even so, the warm and moist low-levels combined with steep mid-level lapse rates will support a conditional risk for severe hail. ..Mosier.. 03/04/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1000 AM CST Mon Mar 04 2024/ ...East TX/LA/Western MS Today... Moderately strong southern-stream mid-level flow is present today across the southern states, with several weak perturbations affecting the area. A warm and moist surface air mass is in place across east TX into LA, where dewpoints in the upper 60s and 70s will yield afternoon MLCAPE of 1500-2000 J/kg. Weak low-level warm advection is expected to result in increasing thunderstorm development this morning through the afternoon as storms spread eastward toward southwest MS. Deep-layer shear is sufficient for at least transient supercell structures, but relatively weak low-level winds suggest the main threats will be hail and gusty winds with the strongest cells. ...Eastern IA/Northern MO/Northern IL... A strong surface cold front is sagging southeastward across IA this morning into a marginally moist and unstable air mass. All 12z model guidance agrees on the development of showers and thunderstorms along the front by early afternoon, although many solutions suggest most of the activity will be behind the front and slightly elevated. Nevertheless, cool temperatures aloft and steep mid-level lapse rates will promote hail in the stronger cores. Storms that can form and persist ahead of the front would have some marginal concern for gusty winds and perhaps a brief tornado as well. ...Eastern OK into Mid MS Valley... Morning model guidance is quite diverse in the development of thunderstorms across this region, with low confidence in any particular area. Will maintain the ongoing MRGL area as a conditional risk if storms can form - mainly due to unseasonably warm and moist conditions and sufficient CAPE for some risk of hail. However, considerably uncertainty exists. Read more

MD 0189 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR NORTHEAST MISSOURI TO NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND SOUTHERN WISCONSIN
Mesoscale Discussion 0189 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0125 PM CST Mon Mar 04 2024 Areas affected...Northeast Missouri to northern Illinois and southern Wisconsin Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 041925Z - 042130Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Additional thunderstorm development is expected along and just ahead of cold front from southern Wisconsin into eastern Iowa, northwest Illinois, and northeast Missouri in the next 1-3 hours. Thunderstorms will primarily pose a damaging wind and severe hail risk. DISCUSSION...Gradual destabilization is ongoing across portions of MO/IA/IL as temperatures climb into the low to mid 70s amid broken cloud cover and continued northward moisture return. Recent temperature/dewpoint observations are higher than anticipated by recent guidance by as much as a few degrees, suggesting that MLCIN is likely eroding slightly faster than depicted by guidance and/or mesoanalyses. Satellite imagery bears this out with slowly deepening cumulus developing from northeast MO to western IL and a recent intensification of previously anemic convection along the IA/IL border. High-res guidance suggests additional convection is likely in the next couple of hours along and ahead of the cold front, but the aforementioned observed trends hint at the potential for earlier initiation. Regardless of precise timing, initially semi-discrete cells should undergo upscale growth owing to strengthening forcing for ascent and undercutting nature of the front, as well as mean storm motion and deep-layer shear vectors oriented northeast along the boundary. Consequently, an initial hail threat should transition to a damaging wind threat threat heading into the late afternoon hours and with eastward extent. Poor boundary-normal deep-layer shear should limit overall storm organization/intensity. A low-end tornado threat may materialize across northern IL where backed low-level flow in the vicinity of the warm front may locally enhance effective SRH. However, this may be conditional on realizing at least a semi-discrete storm mode. Additionally, the northward extent of the warm sector into southern WI is uncertain given extensive cloud cover and falling temperatures north of the surface warm front. Given these concerns, watch issuance is not anticipated. ..Moore/Hart.. 03/04/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...MKX...LSX...DVN...ARX...DMX...EAX... LAT...LON 41818741 41548752 41368794 40249048 40019105 39789180 39709265 39829310 40159337 40459329 40749300 40959236 41109211 41439171 43298995 43498966 43478876 42918777 42418756 41818741 Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0240 PM CST Mon Mar 04 2024 Valid 061200Z - 121200Z A mid-level trough will deepen while ejecting into the Plains states late this week into this weekend. Associated surface lee troughing will encourage dry downslope flow behind a cold front across portions of the southern High Plains to the Rio Grande Days 4-6/Thursday-Saturday. At the moment, guidance agreement is strongest in depicting widespread Elevated to Critical conditions along the Texas/New Mexico border for Day 4/Thursday, where 40 percent Critical probabilities have been introduced. For Days 7-8/Sunday-Monday, surface high pressure will settle over the Plains amid zonal flow aloft. Low-level dry air will meander across the central/southern High Plains, though the medium-range guidance also suggests that the surface wind field should be weak, precluding Critical probabilities this outlook. ..Squitieri.. 03/04/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0240 PM CST Mon Mar 04 2024 Valid 061200Z - 121200Z A mid-level trough will deepen while ejecting into the Plains states late this week into this weekend. Associated surface lee troughing will encourage dry downslope flow behind a cold front across portions of the southern High Plains to the Rio Grande Days 4-6/Thursday-Saturday. At the moment, guidance agreement is strongest in depicting widespread Elevated to Critical conditions along the Texas/New Mexico border for Day 4/Thursday, where 40 percent Critical probabilities have been introduced. For Days 7-8/Sunday-Monday, surface high pressure will settle over the Plains amid zonal flow aloft. Low-level dry air will meander across the central/southern High Plains, though the medium-range guidance also suggests that the surface wind field should be weak, precluding Critical probabilities this outlook. ..Squitieri.. 03/04/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0240 PM CST Mon Mar 04 2024 Valid 061200Z - 121200Z A mid-level trough will deepen while ejecting into the Plains states late this week into this weekend. Associated surface lee troughing will encourage dry downslope flow behind a cold front across portions of the southern High Plains to the Rio Grande Days 4-6/Thursday-Saturday. At the moment, guidance agreement is strongest in depicting widespread Elevated to Critical conditions along the Texas/New Mexico border for Day 4/Thursday, where 40 percent Critical probabilities have been introduced. For Days 7-8/Sunday-Monday, surface high pressure will settle over the Plains amid zonal flow aloft. Low-level dry air will meander across the central/southern High Plains, though the medium-range guidance also suggests that the surface wind field should be weak, precluding Critical probabilities this outlook. ..Squitieri.. 03/04/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0240 PM CST Mon Mar 04 2024 Valid 061200Z - 121200Z A mid-level trough will deepen while ejecting into the Plains states late this week into this weekend. Associated surface lee troughing will encourage dry downslope flow behind a cold front across portions of the southern High Plains to the Rio Grande Days 4-6/Thursday-Saturday. At the moment, guidance agreement is strongest in depicting widespread Elevated to Critical conditions along the Texas/New Mexico border for Day 4/Thursday, where 40 percent Critical probabilities have been introduced. For Days 7-8/Sunday-Monday, surface high pressure will settle over the Plains amid zonal flow aloft. Low-level dry air will meander across the central/southern High Plains, though the medium-range guidance also suggests that the surface wind field should be weak, precluding Critical probabilities this outlook. ..Squitieri.. 03/04/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0240 PM CST Mon Mar 04 2024 Valid 061200Z - 121200Z A mid-level trough will deepen while ejecting into the Plains states late this week into this weekend. Associated surface lee troughing will encourage dry downslope flow behind a cold front across portions of the southern High Plains to the Rio Grande Days 4-6/Thursday-Saturday. At the moment, guidance agreement is strongest in depicting widespread Elevated to Critical conditions along the Texas/New Mexico border for Day 4/Thursday, where 40 percent Critical probabilities have been introduced. For Days 7-8/Sunday-Monday, surface high pressure will settle over the Plains amid zonal flow aloft. Low-level dry air will meander across the central/southern High Plains, though the medium-range guidance also suggests that the surface wind field should be weak, precluding Critical probabilities this outlook. ..Squitieri.. 03/04/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0240 PM CST Mon Mar 04 2024 Valid 061200Z - 121200Z A mid-level trough will deepen while ejecting into the Plains states late this week into this weekend. Associated surface lee troughing will encourage dry downslope flow behind a cold front across portions of the southern High Plains to the Rio Grande Days 4-6/Thursday-Saturday. At the moment, guidance agreement is strongest in depicting widespread Elevated to Critical conditions along the Texas/New Mexico border for Day 4/Thursday, where 40 percent Critical probabilities have been introduced. For Days 7-8/Sunday-Monday, surface high pressure will settle over the Plains amid zonal flow aloft. Low-level dry air will meander across the central/southern High Plains, though the medium-range guidance also suggests that the surface wind field should be weak, precluding Critical probabilities this outlook. ..Squitieri.. 03/04/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0240 PM CST Mon Mar 04 2024 Valid 061200Z - 121200Z A mid-level trough will deepen while ejecting into the Plains states late this week into this weekend. Associated surface lee troughing will encourage dry downslope flow behind a cold front across portions of the southern High Plains to the Rio Grande Days 4-6/Thursday-Saturday. At the moment, guidance agreement is strongest in depicting widespread Elevated to Critical conditions along the Texas/New Mexico border for Day 4/Thursday, where 40 percent Critical probabilities have been introduced. For Days 7-8/Sunday-Monday, surface high pressure will settle over the Plains amid zonal flow aloft. Low-level dry air will meander across the central/southern High Plains, though the medium-range guidance also suggests that the surface wind field should be weak, precluding Critical probabilities this outlook. ..Squitieri.. 03/04/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 PM CST Mon Mar 04 2024 Valid 042000Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER A LARGE AREA FROM CENTRAL/EAST TEXAS INTO MOST OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon into tonight from parts of central Texas into the lower Mississippi Valley, as well as from the Ozarks into the Midwest. Large hail is expected to be the main threat, but strong/gusty winds and even a tornado may also occur. ...20Z Update... ...Eastern IA/Northern MO/Northern IL... Recent surface analysis places a low just south of the IL/WI/MO border intersection. A cold front extends southwestward from this low across northern MO and eastern KS, while a warm front extends eastward across northern IL and then arcs sharply northeastward over southern Lake Michigan. A few elevated storms have been noted near the surface low, with some deepening warm sector cumulus also ongoing from central MO into northern/central IL. As mentioned in MCD #0189, additional thunderstorm development is still expected along and just ahead of cold front from far eastern IA into northwest Illinois and northeast Missouri in the next 1-3 hours. Front-parallel orientation to the deep-layer vertical shear will likely lead to an undercutting of these storms, with a predominantly elevated storm mode anticipated. Even so, steep lapse rates will support some stronger updrafts capable of hail. Some damaging gusts are possible as well, particularly as cells interact with the cold front. ...East TX/LA/Western MS this afternoon and evening... Scattered thunderstorms are currently ongoing from East TX across much of LA, supported by southwesterly flow aloft and resultant warm-air advection. General expectation is for these storms to gradually shift northeastward into more of western MS over time, in tandem with the zone of most favorable warm-air advection. Modest vertical shear remains favorable for transient supercell structures and the threat for hail and damaging gusts. ...Eastern OK into Mid MS Valley this evening and overnight... Thunderstorm development along the front later this evening along the from southern MO into eastern OK remains uncertain, given the potential for warm mid-level temperatures and resulting capping. Additionally, vertical shear will be modest, with a resultant potential for the front to undercutting development. Even so, the warm and moist low-levels combined with steep mid-level lapse rates will support a conditional risk for severe hail. ..Mosier.. 03/04/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1000 AM CST Mon Mar 04 2024/ ...East TX/LA/Western MS Today... Moderately strong southern-stream mid-level flow is present today across the southern states, with several weak perturbations affecting the area. A warm and moist surface air mass is in place across east TX into LA, where dewpoints in the upper 60s and 70s will yield afternoon MLCAPE of 1500-2000 J/kg. Weak low-level warm advection is expected to result in increasing thunderstorm development this morning through the afternoon as storms spread eastward toward southwest MS. Deep-layer shear is sufficient for at least transient supercell structures, but relatively weak low-level winds suggest the main threats will be hail and gusty winds with the strongest cells. ...Eastern IA/Northern MO/Northern IL... A strong surface cold front is sagging southeastward across IA this morning into a marginally moist and unstable air mass. All 12z model guidance agrees on the development of showers and thunderstorms along the front by early afternoon, although many solutions suggest most of the activity will be behind the front and slightly elevated. Nevertheless, cool temperatures aloft and steep mid-level lapse rates will promote hail in the stronger cores. Storms that can form and persist ahead of the front would have some marginal concern for gusty winds and perhaps a brief tornado as well. ...Eastern OK into Mid MS Valley... Morning model guidance is quite diverse in the development of thunderstorms across this region, with low confidence in any particular area. Will maintain the ongoing MRGL area as a conditional risk if storms can form - mainly due to unseasonably warm and moist conditions and sufficient CAPE for some risk of hail. However, considerably uncertainty exists. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 PM CST Mon Mar 04 2024 Valid 042000Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER A LARGE AREA FROM CENTRAL/EAST TEXAS INTO MOST OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon into tonight from parts of central Texas into the lower Mississippi Valley, as well as from the Ozarks into the Midwest. Large hail is expected to be the main threat, but strong/gusty winds and even a tornado may also occur. ...20Z Update... ...Eastern IA/Northern MO/Northern IL... Recent surface analysis places a low just south of the IL/WI/MO border intersection. A cold front extends southwestward from this low across northern MO and eastern KS, while a warm front extends eastward across northern IL and then arcs sharply northeastward over southern Lake Michigan. A few elevated storms have been noted near the surface low, with some deepening warm sector cumulus also ongoing from central MO into northern/central IL. As mentioned in MCD #0189, additional thunderstorm development is still expected along and just ahead of cold front from far eastern IA into northwest Illinois and northeast Missouri in the next 1-3 hours. Front-parallel orientation to the deep-layer vertical shear will likely lead to an undercutting of these storms, with a predominantly elevated storm mode anticipated. Even so, steep lapse rates will support some stronger updrafts capable of hail. Some damaging gusts are possible as well, particularly as cells interact with the cold front. ...East TX/LA/Western MS this afternoon and evening... Scattered thunderstorms are currently ongoing from East TX across much of LA, supported by southwesterly flow aloft and resultant warm-air advection. General expectation is for these storms to gradually shift northeastward into more of western MS over time, in tandem with the zone of most favorable warm-air advection. Modest vertical shear remains favorable for transient supercell structures and the threat for hail and damaging gusts. ...Eastern OK into Mid MS Valley this evening and overnight... Thunderstorm development along the front later this evening along the from southern MO into eastern OK remains uncertain, given the potential for warm mid-level temperatures and resulting capping. Additionally, vertical shear will be modest, with a resultant potential for the front to undercutting development. Even so, the warm and moist low-levels combined with steep mid-level lapse rates will support a conditional risk for severe hail. ..Mosier.. 03/04/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1000 AM CST Mon Mar 04 2024/ ...East TX/LA/Western MS Today... Moderately strong southern-stream mid-level flow is present today across the southern states, with several weak perturbations affecting the area. A warm and moist surface air mass is in place across east TX into LA, where dewpoints in the upper 60s and 70s will yield afternoon MLCAPE of 1500-2000 J/kg. Weak low-level warm advection is expected to result in increasing thunderstorm development this morning through the afternoon as storms spread eastward toward southwest MS. Deep-layer shear is sufficient for at least transient supercell structures, but relatively weak low-level winds suggest the main threats will be hail and gusty winds with the strongest cells. ...Eastern IA/Northern MO/Northern IL... A strong surface cold front is sagging southeastward across IA this morning into a marginally moist and unstable air mass. All 12z model guidance agrees on the development of showers and thunderstorms along the front by early afternoon, although many solutions suggest most of the activity will be behind the front and slightly elevated. Nevertheless, cool temperatures aloft and steep mid-level lapse rates will promote hail in the stronger cores. Storms that can form and persist ahead of the front would have some marginal concern for gusty winds and perhaps a brief tornado as well. ...Eastern OK into Mid MS Valley... Morning model guidance is quite diverse in the development of thunderstorms across this region, with low confidence in any particular area. Will maintain the ongoing MRGL area as a conditional risk if storms can form - mainly due to unseasonably warm and moist conditions and sufficient CAPE for some risk of hail. However, considerably uncertainty exists. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 PM CST Mon Mar 04 2024 Valid 042000Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER A LARGE AREA FROM CENTRAL/EAST TEXAS INTO MOST OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon into tonight from parts of central Texas into the lower Mississippi Valley, as well as from the Ozarks into the Midwest. Large hail is expected to be the main threat, but strong/gusty winds and even a tornado may also occur. ...20Z Update... ...Eastern IA/Northern MO/Northern IL... Recent surface analysis places a low just south of the IL/WI/MO border intersection. A cold front extends southwestward from this low across northern MO and eastern KS, while a warm front extends eastward across northern IL and then arcs sharply northeastward over southern Lake Michigan. A few elevated storms have been noted near the surface low, with some deepening warm sector cumulus also ongoing from central MO into northern/central IL. As mentioned in MCD #0189, additional thunderstorm development is still expected along and just ahead of cold front from far eastern IA into northwest Illinois and northeast Missouri in the next 1-3 hours. Front-parallel orientation to the deep-layer vertical shear will likely lead to an undercutting of these storms, with a predominantly elevated storm mode anticipated. Even so, steep lapse rates will support some stronger updrafts capable of hail. Some damaging gusts are possible as well, particularly as cells interact with the cold front. ...East TX/LA/Western MS this afternoon and evening... Scattered thunderstorms are currently ongoing from East TX across much of LA, supported by southwesterly flow aloft and resultant warm-air advection. General expectation is for these storms to gradually shift northeastward into more of western MS over time, in tandem with the zone of most favorable warm-air advection. Modest vertical shear remains favorable for transient supercell structures and the threat for hail and damaging gusts. ...Eastern OK into Mid MS Valley this evening and overnight... Thunderstorm development along the front later this evening along the from southern MO into eastern OK remains uncertain, given the potential for warm mid-level temperatures and resulting capping. Additionally, vertical shear will be modest, with a resultant potential for the front to undercutting development. Even so, the warm and moist low-levels combined with steep mid-level lapse rates will support a conditional risk for severe hail. ..Mosier.. 03/04/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1000 AM CST Mon Mar 04 2024/ ...East TX/LA/Western MS Today... Moderately strong southern-stream mid-level flow is present today across the southern states, with several weak perturbations affecting the area. A warm and moist surface air mass is in place across east TX into LA, where dewpoints in the upper 60s and 70s will yield afternoon MLCAPE of 1500-2000 J/kg. Weak low-level warm advection is expected to result in increasing thunderstorm development this morning through the afternoon as storms spread eastward toward southwest MS. Deep-layer shear is sufficient for at least transient supercell structures, but relatively weak low-level winds suggest the main threats will be hail and gusty winds with the strongest cells. ...Eastern IA/Northern MO/Northern IL... A strong surface cold front is sagging southeastward across IA this morning into a marginally moist and unstable air mass. All 12z model guidance agrees on the development of showers and thunderstorms along the front by early afternoon, although many solutions suggest most of the activity will be behind the front and slightly elevated. Nevertheless, cool temperatures aloft and steep mid-level lapse rates will promote hail in the stronger cores. Storms that can form and persist ahead of the front would have some marginal concern for gusty winds and perhaps a brief tornado as well. ...Eastern OK into Mid MS Valley... Morning model guidance is quite diverse in the development of thunderstorms across this region, with low confidence in any particular area. Will maintain the ongoing MRGL area as a conditional risk if storms can form - mainly due to unseasonably warm and moist conditions and sufficient CAPE for some risk of hail. However, considerably uncertainty exists. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 PM CST Mon Mar 04 2024 Valid 042000Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER A LARGE AREA FROM CENTRAL/EAST TEXAS INTO MOST OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon into tonight from parts of central Texas into the lower Mississippi Valley, as well as from the Ozarks into the Midwest. Large hail is expected to be the main threat, but strong/gusty winds and even a tornado may also occur. ...20Z Update... ...Eastern IA/Northern MO/Northern IL... Recent surface analysis places a low just south of the IL/WI/MO border intersection. A cold front extends southwestward from this low across northern MO and eastern KS, while a warm front extends eastward across northern IL and then arcs sharply northeastward over southern Lake Michigan. A few elevated storms have been noted near the surface low, with some deepening warm sector cumulus also ongoing from central MO into northern/central IL. As mentioned in MCD #0189, additional thunderstorm development is still expected along and just ahead of cold front from far eastern IA into northwest Illinois and northeast Missouri in the next 1-3 hours. Front-parallel orientation to the deep-layer vertical shear will likely lead to an undercutting of these storms, with a predominantly elevated storm mode anticipated. Even so, steep lapse rates will support some stronger updrafts capable of hail. Some damaging gusts are possible as well, particularly as cells interact with the cold front. ...East TX/LA/Western MS this afternoon and evening... Scattered thunderstorms are currently ongoing from East TX across much of LA, supported by southwesterly flow aloft and resultant warm-air advection. General expectation is for these storms to gradually shift northeastward into more of western MS over time, in tandem with the zone of most favorable warm-air advection. Modest vertical shear remains favorable for transient supercell structures and the threat for hail and damaging gusts. ...Eastern OK into Mid MS Valley this evening and overnight... Thunderstorm development along the front later this evening along the from southern MO into eastern OK remains uncertain, given the potential for warm mid-level temperatures and resulting capping. Additionally, vertical shear will be modest, with a resultant potential for the front to undercutting development. Even so, the warm and moist low-levels combined with steep mid-level lapse rates will support a conditional risk for severe hail. ..Mosier.. 03/04/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1000 AM CST Mon Mar 04 2024/ ...East TX/LA/Western MS Today... Moderately strong southern-stream mid-level flow is present today across the southern states, with several weak perturbations affecting the area. A warm and moist surface air mass is in place across east TX into LA, where dewpoints in the upper 60s and 70s will yield afternoon MLCAPE of 1500-2000 J/kg. Weak low-level warm advection is expected to result in increasing thunderstorm development this morning through the afternoon as storms spread eastward toward southwest MS. Deep-layer shear is sufficient for at least transient supercell structures, but relatively weak low-level winds suggest the main threats will be hail and gusty winds with the strongest cells. ...Eastern IA/Northern MO/Northern IL... A strong surface cold front is sagging southeastward across IA this morning into a marginally moist and unstable air mass. All 12z model guidance agrees on the development of showers and thunderstorms along the front by early afternoon, although many solutions suggest most of the activity will be behind the front and slightly elevated. Nevertheless, cool temperatures aloft and steep mid-level lapse rates will promote hail in the stronger cores. Storms that can form and persist ahead of the front would have some marginal concern for gusty winds and perhaps a brief tornado as well. ...Eastern OK into Mid MS Valley... Morning model guidance is quite diverse in the development of thunderstorms across this region, with low confidence in any particular area. Will maintain the ongoing MRGL area as a conditional risk if storms can form - mainly due to unseasonably warm and moist conditions and sufficient CAPE for some risk of hail. However, considerably uncertainty exists. Read more

MD 0188 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR FAR EAST TX INTO LA AND SOUTHWEST MS
Mesoscale Discussion 0188 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1134 AM CST Mon Mar 04 2024 Areas affected...far east TX into LA and southwest MS Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 041734Z - 041930Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible through the afternoon. Hail (a few instances near 1 inch diameter) and gusty winds (to 50 mph) may accompany this activity. DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms will continue to increase in coverage/intensity over the next few hours from far east TX into much of LA. Surface dewpoints in the mid/upper 60s to near 70 F beneath steep midlevel lapse rates are fostering MLCAPE generally around 1500 J/kg at midday. Meanwhile, 0-6 km effective shear magnitudes around 30-35 kt will be marginally favorable for supercells. Already a few cells across LA have shown transient, weak rotation. This environment will mainly support isolated hail (a few instances of near 1 inch diameter) and gusty winds (to 50 mph). Vertically veering low-level flow will support some potential for low-level rotation, and regional VWP data shows favorably curved (albeit small) low-level hodographs. Generally weak low-level winds and a lack of well-defined surface boundaries will likely limit tornado potential. Given the expected transient and isolated nature of any stronger, well-organized cells, a watch is not expected at this time. ..Leitman/Hart.. 03/04/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV... LAT...LON 31599450 32109443 32599403 32749353 32689248 31339083 29828929 29428933 29378996 29899154 30319276 30589356 31109424 31599450 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1212 PM CST Mon Mar 04 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track for tomorrow/Tuesday. Guidance has trended slightly drier and windier across portions of northern Nebraska. The brevity of these conditions suggests that fire weather highlights are still not warranted, though this may change by Day 1 if the Elevated conditions appear to last longer than previously anticipated. ..Squitieri.. 03/04/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1148 PM CST Sun Mar 03 2024/ ...Synopsis... Midlevel westerly flow will continue to weaken across the southern Plains on D2/Tuesday, favoring an overall decrease in dry/breezy downslope flow and fire-weather conditions. Farther north over the central Plains (particularly portions of northern NE), there is some potential for locally dry/breezy conditions to develop during the afternoon, as shallow boundary-layer mixing extends into a belt of strong flow aloft. While locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible here, the overall threat appears too marginal for an Elevated area at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1212 PM CST Mon Mar 04 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track for tomorrow/Tuesday. Guidance has trended slightly drier and windier across portions of northern Nebraska. The brevity of these conditions suggests that fire weather highlights are still not warranted, though this may change by Day 1 if the Elevated conditions appear to last longer than previously anticipated. ..Squitieri.. 03/04/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1148 PM CST Sun Mar 03 2024/ ...Synopsis... Midlevel westerly flow will continue to weaken across the southern Plains on D2/Tuesday, favoring an overall decrease in dry/breezy downslope flow and fire-weather conditions. Farther north over the central Plains (particularly portions of northern NE), there is some potential for locally dry/breezy conditions to develop during the afternoon, as shallow boundary-layer mixing extends into a belt of strong flow aloft. While locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible here, the overall threat appears too marginal for an Elevated area at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more