Severe Storms

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1131 AM CST Mon Mar 04 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EAST TEXAS/OKLAHOMA INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms appear possible Tuesday across parts of east Texas/Oklahoma into the lower Mississippi Valley. Occasional large hail and damaging winds should be the main threats. ...Synopsis... A low-amplitude, broadly cyclonic, split-flow upper pattern will be in place across the CONUS early Tuesday. A southern-stream shortwave trough is forecast to begin the period over the Lower MS Valley before then continuing eastward/east-northeastward across the Southeast States throughout the day. This shortwave is expected to end the period extended from the southern Appalachians into the northeast Gulf of Mexico. Several shortwave troughs will likely be embedded within the northern stream, including one wave which is forecast to move from the Dakotas northeastward across the Upper Midwest and into northwestern Ontario. The surface pattern early Tuesday morning is expected to feature a low over southern Lower MI A cold front will extend southwestward from this low to another low over North TX. General expectation is for this front to progress southeastward/eastward throughout the day while becoming increasingly diffuse. Moderate low-level moisture will be in place ahead of this front, with mid to upper 60s surface dewpoints from east TX across the Lower MS Valley decreasing to the upper 50s/low 60s across the Mid MS Valley. Showers and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing early Tuesday along much of this frontal zone, with at least isolated coverage anticipated along and ahead of the front as it moves eastward throughout the day. The strongest storms are anticipated from east TX/OK into the Lower MS Valley. ...East TX/OK into the Lower Mississippi Valley... Showers and thunderstorms are expected to ongoing ahead of the cold front from eastern OK into central TX early Tuesday morning. Coverage and storm mode of these storms is uncertain, given the uncertainties regarding storm development and evolution from late Monday night/early Tuesday morning. Current expectation is for one or more clusters to be ongoing, with the most probable location for a cluster from central portions of East TX into the Arklatex. Forecast soundings across the region show modest low-level stability beneath an EML and attendant steep mid-level lapse rates and relatively dry mid-level air. These thermodynamic profiles appear supportive of strong downdraft production, which is confirmed with many of the HREF members forecasting strong storm outflow. Some organization on storm outflows may occur, but deep-layer vertical shear is only expected to be around 30 kt, limiting the confidence in upscale growth. This uncertainty regarding initiation and subsequent convective evolution limits overall forecast confidence. As such, will maintain Marginal probabilities for this outlook, but a corridor of higher probabilities may be needed in subsequent outlooks if convective evolution becomes more certain. Evolution of this early-day activity will impact the potential for redevelopment along the front during the afternoon and evening. Guidance has trended towards redevelopment along the front from east-central OK across north-central/northwest AR. Steep mid-level lapse rates will remain in place, suggesting that there is a conditional risk for hail and/or strong downdrafts with any storms that do development. Limited vertical shear should keep storm organization modest, tempering overall storm severity and duration. ..Mosier.. 03/04/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1131 AM CST Mon Mar 04 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EAST TEXAS/OKLAHOMA INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms appear possible Tuesday across parts of east Texas/Oklahoma into the lower Mississippi Valley. Occasional large hail and damaging winds should be the main threats. ...Synopsis... A low-amplitude, broadly cyclonic, split-flow upper pattern will be in place across the CONUS early Tuesday. A southern-stream shortwave trough is forecast to begin the period over the Lower MS Valley before then continuing eastward/east-northeastward across the Southeast States throughout the day. This shortwave is expected to end the period extended from the southern Appalachians into the northeast Gulf of Mexico. Several shortwave troughs will likely be embedded within the northern stream, including one wave which is forecast to move from the Dakotas northeastward across the Upper Midwest and into northwestern Ontario. The surface pattern early Tuesday morning is expected to feature a low over southern Lower MI A cold front will extend southwestward from this low to another low over North TX. General expectation is for this front to progress southeastward/eastward throughout the day while becoming increasingly diffuse. Moderate low-level moisture will be in place ahead of this front, with mid to upper 60s surface dewpoints from east TX across the Lower MS Valley decreasing to the upper 50s/low 60s across the Mid MS Valley. Showers and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing early Tuesday along much of this frontal zone, with at least isolated coverage anticipated along and ahead of the front as it moves eastward throughout the day. The strongest storms are anticipated from east TX/OK into the Lower MS Valley. ...East TX/OK into the Lower Mississippi Valley... Showers and thunderstorms are expected to ongoing ahead of the cold front from eastern OK into central TX early Tuesday morning. Coverage and storm mode of these storms is uncertain, given the uncertainties regarding storm development and evolution from late Monday night/early Tuesday morning. Current expectation is for one or more clusters to be ongoing, with the most probable location for a cluster from central portions of East TX into the Arklatex. Forecast soundings across the region show modest low-level stability beneath an EML and attendant steep mid-level lapse rates and relatively dry mid-level air. These thermodynamic profiles appear supportive of strong downdraft production, which is confirmed with many of the HREF members forecasting strong storm outflow. Some organization on storm outflows may occur, but deep-layer vertical shear is only expected to be around 30 kt, limiting the confidence in upscale growth. This uncertainty regarding initiation and subsequent convective evolution limits overall forecast confidence. As such, will maintain Marginal probabilities for this outlook, but a corridor of higher probabilities may be needed in subsequent outlooks if convective evolution becomes more certain. Evolution of this early-day activity will impact the potential for redevelopment along the front during the afternoon and evening. Guidance has trended towards redevelopment along the front from east-central OK across north-central/northwest AR. Steep mid-level lapse rates will remain in place, suggesting that there is a conditional risk for hail and/or strong downdrafts with any storms that do development. Limited vertical shear should keep storm organization modest, tempering overall storm severity and duration. ..Mosier.. 03/04/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1131 AM CST Mon Mar 04 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EAST TEXAS/OKLAHOMA INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms appear possible Tuesday across parts of east Texas/Oklahoma into the lower Mississippi Valley. Occasional large hail and damaging winds should be the main threats. ...Synopsis... A low-amplitude, broadly cyclonic, split-flow upper pattern will be in place across the CONUS early Tuesday. A southern-stream shortwave trough is forecast to begin the period over the Lower MS Valley before then continuing eastward/east-northeastward across the Southeast States throughout the day. This shortwave is expected to end the period extended from the southern Appalachians into the northeast Gulf of Mexico. Several shortwave troughs will likely be embedded within the northern stream, including one wave which is forecast to move from the Dakotas northeastward across the Upper Midwest and into northwestern Ontario. The surface pattern early Tuesday morning is expected to feature a low over southern Lower MI A cold front will extend southwestward from this low to another low over North TX. General expectation is for this front to progress southeastward/eastward throughout the day while becoming increasingly diffuse. Moderate low-level moisture will be in place ahead of this front, with mid to upper 60s surface dewpoints from east TX across the Lower MS Valley decreasing to the upper 50s/low 60s across the Mid MS Valley. Showers and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing early Tuesday along much of this frontal zone, with at least isolated coverage anticipated along and ahead of the front as it moves eastward throughout the day. The strongest storms are anticipated from east TX/OK into the Lower MS Valley. ...East TX/OK into the Lower Mississippi Valley... Showers and thunderstorms are expected to ongoing ahead of the cold front from eastern OK into central TX early Tuesday morning. Coverage and storm mode of these storms is uncertain, given the uncertainties regarding storm development and evolution from late Monday night/early Tuesday morning. Current expectation is for one or more clusters to be ongoing, with the most probable location for a cluster from central portions of East TX into the Arklatex. Forecast soundings across the region show modest low-level stability beneath an EML and attendant steep mid-level lapse rates and relatively dry mid-level air. These thermodynamic profiles appear supportive of strong downdraft production, which is confirmed with many of the HREF members forecasting strong storm outflow. Some organization on storm outflows may occur, but deep-layer vertical shear is only expected to be around 30 kt, limiting the confidence in upscale growth. This uncertainty regarding initiation and subsequent convective evolution limits overall forecast confidence. As such, will maintain Marginal probabilities for this outlook, but a corridor of higher probabilities may be needed in subsequent outlooks if convective evolution becomes more certain. Evolution of this early-day activity will impact the potential for redevelopment along the front during the afternoon and evening. Guidance has trended towards redevelopment along the front from east-central OK across north-central/northwest AR. Steep mid-level lapse rates will remain in place, suggesting that there is a conditional risk for hail and/or strong downdrafts with any storms that do development. Limited vertical shear should keep storm organization modest, tempering overall storm severity and duration. ..Mosier.. 03/04/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1131 AM CST Mon Mar 04 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EAST TEXAS/OKLAHOMA INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms appear possible Tuesday across parts of east Texas/Oklahoma into the lower Mississippi Valley. Occasional large hail and damaging winds should be the main threats. ...Synopsis... A low-amplitude, broadly cyclonic, split-flow upper pattern will be in place across the CONUS early Tuesday. A southern-stream shortwave trough is forecast to begin the period over the Lower MS Valley before then continuing eastward/east-northeastward across the Southeast States throughout the day. This shortwave is expected to end the period extended from the southern Appalachians into the northeast Gulf of Mexico. Several shortwave troughs will likely be embedded within the northern stream, including one wave which is forecast to move from the Dakotas northeastward across the Upper Midwest and into northwestern Ontario. The surface pattern early Tuesday morning is expected to feature a low over southern Lower MI A cold front will extend southwestward from this low to another low over North TX. General expectation is for this front to progress southeastward/eastward throughout the day while becoming increasingly diffuse. Moderate low-level moisture will be in place ahead of this front, with mid to upper 60s surface dewpoints from east TX across the Lower MS Valley decreasing to the upper 50s/low 60s across the Mid MS Valley. Showers and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing early Tuesday along much of this frontal zone, with at least isolated coverage anticipated along and ahead of the front as it moves eastward throughout the day. The strongest storms are anticipated from east TX/OK into the Lower MS Valley. ...East TX/OK into the Lower Mississippi Valley... Showers and thunderstorms are expected to ongoing ahead of the cold front from eastern OK into central TX early Tuesday morning. Coverage and storm mode of these storms is uncertain, given the uncertainties regarding storm development and evolution from late Monday night/early Tuesday morning. Current expectation is for one or more clusters to be ongoing, with the most probable location for a cluster from central portions of East TX into the Arklatex. Forecast soundings across the region show modest low-level stability beneath an EML and attendant steep mid-level lapse rates and relatively dry mid-level air. These thermodynamic profiles appear supportive of strong downdraft production, which is confirmed with many of the HREF members forecasting strong storm outflow. Some organization on storm outflows may occur, but deep-layer vertical shear is only expected to be around 30 kt, limiting the confidence in upscale growth. This uncertainty regarding initiation and subsequent convective evolution limits overall forecast confidence. As such, will maintain Marginal probabilities for this outlook, but a corridor of higher probabilities may be needed in subsequent outlooks if convective evolution becomes more certain. Evolution of this early-day activity will impact the potential for redevelopment along the front during the afternoon and evening. Guidance has trended towards redevelopment along the front from east-central OK across north-central/northwest AR. Steep mid-level lapse rates will remain in place, suggesting that there is a conditional risk for hail and/or strong downdrafts with any storms that do development. Limited vertical shear should keep storm organization modest, tempering overall storm severity and duration. ..Mosier.. 03/04/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1131 AM CST Mon Mar 04 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EAST TEXAS/OKLAHOMA INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms appear possible Tuesday across parts of east Texas/Oklahoma into the lower Mississippi Valley. Occasional large hail and damaging winds should be the main threats. ...Synopsis... A low-amplitude, broadly cyclonic, split-flow upper pattern will be in place across the CONUS early Tuesday. A southern-stream shortwave trough is forecast to begin the period over the Lower MS Valley before then continuing eastward/east-northeastward across the Southeast States throughout the day. This shortwave is expected to end the period extended from the southern Appalachians into the northeast Gulf of Mexico. Several shortwave troughs will likely be embedded within the northern stream, including one wave which is forecast to move from the Dakotas northeastward across the Upper Midwest and into northwestern Ontario. The surface pattern early Tuesday morning is expected to feature a low over southern Lower MI A cold front will extend southwestward from this low to another low over North TX. General expectation is for this front to progress southeastward/eastward throughout the day while becoming increasingly diffuse. Moderate low-level moisture will be in place ahead of this front, with mid to upper 60s surface dewpoints from east TX across the Lower MS Valley decreasing to the upper 50s/low 60s across the Mid MS Valley. Showers and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing early Tuesday along much of this frontal zone, with at least isolated coverage anticipated along and ahead of the front as it moves eastward throughout the day. The strongest storms are anticipated from east TX/OK into the Lower MS Valley. ...East TX/OK into the Lower Mississippi Valley... Showers and thunderstorms are expected to ongoing ahead of the cold front from eastern OK into central TX early Tuesday morning. Coverage and storm mode of these storms is uncertain, given the uncertainties regarding storm development and evolution from late Monday night/early Tuesday morning. Current expectation is for one or more clusters to be ongoing, with the most probable location for a cluster from central portions of East TX into the Arklatex. Forecast soundings across the region show modest low-level stability beneath an EML and attendant steep mid-level lapse rates and relatively dry mid-level air. These thermodynamic profiles appear supportive of strong downdraft production, which is confirmed with many of the HREF members forecasting strong storm outflow. Some organization on storm outflows may occur, but deep-layer vertical shear is only expected to be around 30 kt, limiting the confidence in upscale growth. This uncertainty regarding initiation and subsequent convective evolution limits overall forecast confidence. As such, will maintain Marginal probabilities for this outlook, but a corridor of higher probabilities may be needed in subsequent outlooks if convective evolution becomes more certain. Evolution of this early-day activity will impact the potential for redevelopment along the front during the afternoon and evening. Guidance has trended towards redevelopment along the front from east-central OK across north-central/northwest AR. Steep mid-level lapse rates will remain in place, suggesting that there is a conditional risk for hail and/or strong downdrafts with any storms that do development. Limited vertical shear should keep storm organization modest, tempering overall storm severity and duration. ..Mosier.. 03/04/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1131 AM CST Mon Mar 04 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EAST TEXAS/OKLAHOMA INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms appear possible Tuesday across parts of east Texas/Oklahoma into the lower Mississippi Valley. Occasional large hail and damaging winds should be the main threats. ...Synopsis... A low-amplitude, broadly cyclonic, split-flow upper pattern will be in place across the CONUS early Tuesday. A southern-stream shortwave trough is forecast to begin the period over the Lower MS Valley before then continuing eastward/east-northeastward across the Southeast States throughout the day. This shortwave is expected to end the period extended from the southern Appalachians into the northeast Gulf of Mexico. Several shortwave troughs will likely be embedded within the northern stream, including one wave which is forecast to move from the Dakotas northeastward across the Upper Midwest and into northwestern Ontario. The surface pattern early Tuesday morning is expected to feature a low over southern Lower MI A cold front will extend southwestward from this low to another low over North TX. General expectation is for this front to progress southeastward/eastward throughout the day while becoming increasingly diffuse. Moderate low-level moisture will be in place ahead of this front, with mid to upper 60s surface dewpoints from east TX across the Lower MS Valley decreasing to the upper 50s/low 60s across the Mid MS Valley. Showers and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing early Tuesday along much of this frontal zone, with at least isolated coverage anticipated along and ahead of the front as it moves eastward throughout the day. The strongest storms are anticipated from east TX/OK into the Lower MS Valley. ...East TX/OK into the Lower Mississippi Valley... Showers and thunderstorms are expected to ongoing ahead of the cold front from eastern OK into central TX early Tuesday morning. Coverage and storm mode of these storms is uncertain, given the uncertainties regarding storm development and evolution from late Monday night/early Tuesday morning. Current expectation is for one or more clusters to be ongoing, with the most probable location for a cluster from central portions of East TX into the Arklatex. Forecast soundings across the region show modest low-level stability beneath an EML and attendant steep mid-level lapse rates and relatively dry mid-level air. These thermodynamic profiles appear supportive of strong downdraft production, which is confirmed with many of the HREF members forecasting strong storm outflow. Some organization on storm outflows may occur, but deep-layer vertical shear is only expected to be around 30 kt, limiting the confidence in upscale growth. This uncertainty regarding initiation and subsequent convective evolution limits overall forecast confidence. As such, will maintain Marginal probabilities for this outlook, but a corridor of higher probabilities may be needed in subsequent outlooks if convective evolution becomes more certain. Evolution of this early-day activity will impact the potential for redevelopment along the front during the afternoon and evening. Guidance has trended towards redevelopment along the front from east-central OK across north-central/northwest AR. Steep mid-level lapse rates will remain in place, suggesting that there is a conditional risk for hail and/or strong downdrafts with any storms that do development. Limited vertical shear should keep storm organization modest, tempering overall storm severity and duration. ..Mosier.. 03/04/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1131 AM CST Mon Mar 04 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EAST TEXAS/OKLAHOMA INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms appear possible Tuesday across parts of east Texas/Oklahoma into the lower Mississippi Valley. Occasional large hail and damaging winds should be the main threats. ...Synopsis... A low-amplitude, broadly cyclonic, split-flow upper pattern will be in place across the CONUS early Tuesday. A southern-stream shortwave trough is forecast to begin the period over the Lower MS Valley before then continuing eastward/east-northeastward across the Southeast States throughout the day. This shortwave is expected to end the period extended from the southern Appalachians into the northeast Gulf of Mexico. Several shortwave troughs will likely be embedded within the northern stream, including one wave which is forecast to move from the Dakotas northeastward across the Upper Midwest and into northwestern Ontario. The surface pattern early Tuesday morning is expected to feature a low over southern Lower MI A cold front will extend southwestward from this low to another low over North TX. General expectation is for this front to progress southeastward/eastward throughout the day while becoming increasingly diffuse. Moderate low-level moisture will be in place ahead of this front, with mid to upper 60s surface dewpoints from east TX across the Lower MS Valley decreasing to the upper 50s/low 60s across the Mid MS Valley. Showers and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing early Tuesday along much of this frontal zone, with at least isolated coverage anticipated along and ahead of the front as it moves eastward throughout the day. The strongest storms are anticipated from east TX/OK into the Lower MS Valley. ...East TX/OK into the Lower Mississippi Valley... Showers and thunderstorms are expected to ongoing ahead of the cold front from eastern OK into central TX early Tuesday morning. Coverage and storm mode of these storms is uncertain, given the uncertainties regarding storm development and evolution from late Monday night/early Tuesday morning. Current expectation is for one or more clusters to be ongoing, with the most probable location for a cluster from central portions of East TX into the Arklatex. Forecast soundings across the region show modest low-level stability beneath an EML and attendant steep mid-level lapse rates and relatively dry mid-level air. These thermodynamic profiles appear supportive of strong downdraft production, which is confirmed with many of the HREF members forecasting strong storm outflow. Some organization on storm outflows may occur, but deep-layer vertical shear is only expected to be around 30 kt, limiting the confidence in upscale growth. This uncertainty regarding initiation and subsequent convective evolution limits overall forecast confidence. As such, will maintain Marginal probabilities for this outlook, but a corridor of higher probabilities may be needed in subsequent outlooks if convective evolution becomes more certain. Evolution of this early-day activity will impact the potential for redevelopment along the front during the afternoon and evening. Guidance has trended towards redevelopment along the front from east-central OK across north-central/northwest AR. Steep mid-level lapse rates will remain in place, suggesting that there is a conditional risk for hail and/or strong downdrafts with any storms that do development. Limited vertical shear should keep storm organization modest, tempering overall storm severity and duration. ..Mosier.. 03/04/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1131 AM CST Mon Mar 04 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EAST TEXAS/OKLAHOMA INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms appear possible Tuesday across parts of east Texas/Oklahoma into the lower Mississippi Valley. Occasional large hail and damaging winds should be the main threats. ...Synopsis... A low-amplitude, broadly cyclonic, split-flow upper pattern will be in place across the CONUS early Tuesday. A southern-stream shortwave trough is forecast to begin the period over the Lower MS Valley before then continuing eastward/east-northeastward across the Southeast States throughout the day. This shortwave is expected to end the period extended from the southern Appalachians into the northeast Gulf of Mexico. Several shortwave troughs will likely be embedded within the northern stream, including one wave which is forecast to move from the Dakotas northeastward across the Upper Midwest and into northwestern Ontario. The surface pattern early Tuesday morning is expected to feature a low over southern Lower MI A cold front will extend southwestward from this low to another low over North TX. General expectation is for this front to progress southeastward/eastward throughout the day while becoming increasingly diffuse. Moderate low-level moisture will be in place ahead of this front, with mid to upper 60s surface dewpoints from east TX across the Lower MS Valley decreasing to the upper 50s/low 60s across the Mid MS Valley. Showers and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing early Tuesday along much of this frontal zone, with at least isolated coverage anticipated along and ahead of the front as it moves eastward throughout the day. The strongest storms are anticipated from east TX/OK into the Lower MS Valley. ...East TX/OK into the Lower Mississippi Valley... Showers and thunderstorms are expected to ongoing ahead of the cold front from eastern OK into central TX early Tuesday morning. Coverage and storm mode of these storms is uncertain, given the uncertainties regarding storm development and evolution from late Monday night/early Tuesday morning. Current expectation is for one or more clusters to be ongoing, with the most probable location for a cluster from central portions of East TX into the Arklatex. Forecast soundings across the region show modest low-level stability beneath an EML and attendant steep mid-level lapse rates and relatively dry mid-level air. These thermodynamic profiles appear supportive of strong downdraft production, which is confirmed with many of the HREF members forecasting strong storm outflow. Some organization on storm outflows may occur, but deep-layer vertical shear is only expected to be around 30 kt, limiting the confidence in upscale growth. This uncertainty regarding initiation and subsequent convective evolution limits overall forecast confidence. As such, will maintain Marginal probabilities for this outlook, but a corridor of higher probabilities may be needed in subsequent outlooks if convective evolution becomes more certain. Evolution of this early-day activity will impact the potential for redevelopment along the front during the afternoon and evening. Guidance has trended towards redevelopment along the front from east-central OK across north-central/northwest AR. Steep mid-level lapse rates will remain in place, suggesting that there is a conditional risk for hail and/or strong downdrafts with any storms that do development. Limited vertical shear should keep storm organization modest, tempering overall storm severity and duration. ..Mosier.. 03/04/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1131 AM CST Mon Mar 04 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EAST TEXAS/OKLAHOMA INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms appear possible Tuesday across parts of east Texas/Oklahoma into the lower Mississippi Valley. Occasional large hail and damaging winds should be the main threats. ...Synopsis... A low-amplitude, broadly cyclonic, split-flow upper pattern will be in place across the CONUS early Tuesday. A southern-stream shortwave trough is forecast to begin the period over the Lower MS Valley before then continuing eastward/east-northeastward across the Southeast States throughout the day. This shortwave is expected to end the period extended from the southern Appalachians into the northeast Gulf of Mexico. Several shortwave troughs will likely be embedded within the northern stream, including one wave which is forecast to move from the Dakotas northeastward across the Upper Midwest and into northwestern Ontario. The surface pattern early Tuesday morning is expected to feature a low over southern Lower MI A cold front will extend southwestward from this low to another low over North TX. General expectation is for this front to progress southeastward/eastward throughout the day while becoming increasingly diffuse. Moderate low-level moisture will be in place ahead of this front, with mid to upper 60s surface dewpoints from east TX across the Lower MS Valley decreasing to the upper 50s/low 60s across the Mid MS Valley. Showers and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing early Tuesday along much of this frontal zone, with at least isolated coverage anticipated along and ahead of the front as it moves eastward throughout the day. The strongest storms are anticipated from east TX/OK into the Lower MS Valley. ...East TX/OK into the Lower Mississippi Valley... Showers and thunderstorms are expected to ongoing ahead of the cold front from eastern OK into central TX early Tuesday morning. Coverage and storm mode of these storms is uncertain, given the uncertainties regarding storm development and evolution from late Monday night/early Tuesday morning. Current expectation is for one or more clusters to be ongoing, with the most probable location for a cluster from central portions of East TX into the Arklatex. Forecast soundings across the region show modest low-level stability beneath an EML and attendant steep mid-level lapse rates and relatively dry mid-level air. These thermodynamic profiles appear supportive of strong downdraft production, which is confirmed with many of the HREF members forecasting strong storm outflow. Some organization on storm outflows may occur, but deep-layer vertical shear is only expected to be around 30 kt, limiting the confidence in upscale growth. This uncertainty regarding initiation and subsequent convective evolution limits overall forecast confidence. As such, will maintain Marginal probabilities for this outlook, but a corridor of higher probabilities may be needed in subsequent outlooks if convective evolution becomes more certain. Evolution of this early-day activity will impact the potential for redevelopment along the front during the afternoon and evening. Guidance has trended towards redevelopment along the front from east-central OK across north-central/northwest AR. Steep mid-level lapse rates will remain in place, suggesting that there is a conditional risk for hail and/or strong downdrafts with any storms that do development. Limited vertical shear should keep storm organization modest, tempering overall storm severity and duration. ..Mosier.. 03/04/2024 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1002 AM CST Mon Mar 04 2024 Valid 041700Z - 051200Z The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with no changes or additions made. ..Squitieri.. 03/04/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1147 PM CST Sun Mar 03 2024/ ...Synopsis... Moderate west-southwesterly midlevel flow will persist across the southern High Plains -- along the southern periphery of the primary mid/upper-level jet extending across the central Rockies and adjacent Plains. Related downslope flow off the southern Rockies will result in 15-20 percent minimum RH across the southern High Plains, where a modest surface pressure gradient will yield 15-20 mph sustained westerly surface winds. Given dry/receptive fuels across the area, low-end elevated fire-weather conditions are expected across parts of eastern NM into West TX. Farther north, a broad/weak elongated surface low will drift slowly northeastward from the central/southern Plains into the Midwest. On the backside of this feature, locally dry/breezy post-frontal conditions could support a brief period of elevated fire-weather conditions across parts of KS, where fuels have become increasingly dry. However, these conditions appear too brief/localized for an Elevated area at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1002 AM CST Mon Mar 04 2024 Valid 041700Z - 051200Z The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with no changes or additions made. ..Squitieri.. 03/04/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1147 PM CST Sun Mar 03 2024/ ...Synopsis... Moderate west-southwesterly midlevel flow will persist across the southern High Plains -- along the southern periphery of the primary mid/upper-level jet extending across the central Rockies and adjacent Plains. Related downslope flow off the southern Rockies will result in 15-20 percent minimum RH across the southern High Plains, where a modest surface pressure gradient will yield 15-20 mph sustained westerly surface winds. Given dry/receptive fuels across the area, low-end elevated fire-weather conditions are expected across parts of eastern NM into West TX. Farther north, a broad/weak elongated surface low will drift slowly northeastward from the central/southern Plains into the Midwest. On the backside of this feature, locally dry/breezy post-frontal conditions could support a brief period of elevated fire-weather conditions across parts of KS, where fuels have become increasingly dry. However, these conditions appear too brief/localized for an Elevated area at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1002 AM CST Mon Mar 04 2024 Valid 041700Z - 051200Z The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with no changes or additions made. ..Squitieri.. 03/04/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1147 PM CST Sun Mar 03 2024/ ...Synopsis... Moderate west-southwesterly midlevel flow will persist across the southern High Plains -- along the southern periphery of the primary mid/upper-level jet extending across the central Rockies and adjacent Plains. Related downslope flow off the southern Rockies will result in 15-20 percent minimum RH across the southern High Plains, where a modest surface pressure gradient will yield 15-20 mph sustained westerly surface winds. Given dry/receptive fuels across the area, low-end elevated fire-weather conditions are expected across parts of eastern NM into West TX. Farther north, a broad/weak elongated surface low will drift slowly northeastward from the central/southern Plains into the Midwest. On the backside of this feature, locally dry/breezy post-frontal conditions could support a brief period of elevated fire-weather conditions across parts of KS, where fuels have become increasingly dry. However, these conditions appear too brief/localized for an Elevated area at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1002 AM CST Mon Mar 04 2024 Valid 041700Z - 051200Z The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with no changes or additions made. ..Squitieri.. 03/04/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1147 PM CST Sun Mar 03 2024/ ...Synopsis... Moderate west-southwesterly midlevel flow will persist across the southern High Plains -- along the southern periphery of the primary mid/upper-level jet extending across the central Rockies and adjacent Plains. Related downslope flow off the southern Rockies will result in 15-20 percent minimum RH across the southern High Plains, where a modest surface pressure gradient will yield 15-20 mph sustained westerly surface winds. Given dry/receptive fuels across the area, low-end elevated fire-weather conditions are expected across parts of eastern NM into West TX. Farther north, a broad/weak elongated surface low will drift slowly northeastward from the central/southern Plains into the Midwest. On the backside of this feature, locally dry/breezy post-frontal conditions could support a brief period of elevated fire-weather conditions across parts of KS, where fuels have become increasingly dry. However, these conditions appear too brief/localized for an Elevated area at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1002 AM CST Mon Mar 04 2024 Valid 041700Z - 051200Z The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with no changes or additions made. ..Squitieri.. 03/04/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1147 PM CST Sun Mar 03 2024/ ...Synopsis... Moderate west-southwesterly midlevel flow will persist across the southern High Plains -- along the southern periphery of the primary mid/upper-level jet extending across the central Rockies and adjacent Plains. Related downslope flow off the southern Rockies will result in 15-20 percent minimum RH across the southern High Plains, where a modest surface pressure gradient will yield 15-20 mph sustained westerly surface winds. Given dry/receptive fuels across the area, low-end elevated fire-weather conditions are expected across parts of eastern NM into West TX. Farther north, a broad/weak elongated surface low will drift slowly northeastward from the central/southern Plains into the Midwest. On the backside of this feature, locally dry/breezy post-frontal conditions could support a brief period of elevated fire-weather conditions across parts of KS, where fuels have become increasingly dry. However, these conditions appear too brief/localized for an Elevated area at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1002 AM CST Mon Mar 04 2024 Valid 041700Z - 051200Z The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with no changes or additions made. ..Squitieri.. 03/04/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1147 PM CST Sun Mar 03 2024/ ...Synopsis... Moderate west-southwesterly midlevel flow will persist across the southern High Plains -- along the southern periphery of the primary mid/upper-level jet extending across the central Rockies and adjacent Plains. Related downslope flow off the southern Rockies will result in 15-20 percent minimum RH across the southern High Plains, where a modest surface pressure gradient will yield 15-20 mph sustained westerly surface winds. Given dry/receptive fuels across the area, low-end elevated fire-weather conditions are expected across parts of eastern NM into West TX. Farther north, a broad/weak elongated surface low will drift slowly northeastward from the central/southern Plains into the Midwest. On the backside of this feature, locally dry/breezy post-frontal conditions could support a brief period of elevated fire-weather conditions across parts of KS, where fuels have become increasingly dry. However, these conditions appear too brief/localized for an Elevated area at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1002 AM CST Mon Mar 04 2024 Valid 041700Z - 051200Z The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with no changes or additions made. ..Squitieri.. 03/04/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1147 PM CST Sun Mar 03 2024/ ...Synopsis... Moderate west-southwesterly midlevel flow will persist across the southern High Plains -- along the southern periphery of the primary mid/upper-level jet extending across the central Rockies and adjacent Plains. Related downslope flow off the southern Rockies will result in 15-20 percent minimum RH across the southern High Plains, where a modest surface pressure gradient will yield 15-20 mph sustained westerly surface winds. Given dry/receptive fuels across the area, low-end elevated fire-weather conditions are expected across parts of eastern NM into West TX. Farther north, a broad/weak elongated surface low will drift slowly northeastward from the central/southern Plains into the Midwest. On the backside of this feature, locally dry/breezy post-frontal conditions could support a brief period of elevated fire-weather conditions across parts of KS, where fuels have become increasingly dry. However, these conditions appear too brief/localized for an Elevated area at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1002 AM CST Mon Mar 04 2024 Valid 041700Z - 051200Z The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with no changes or additions made. ..Squitieri.. 03/04/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1147 PM CST Sun Mar 03 2024/ ...Synopsis... Moderate west-southwesterly midlevel flow will persist across the southern High Plains -- along the southern periphery of the primary mid/upper-level jet extending across the central Rockies and adjacent Plains. Related downslope flow off the southern Rockies will result in 15-20 percent minimum RH across the southern High Plains, where a modest surface pressure gradient will yield 15-20 mph sustained westerly surface winds. Given dry/receptive fuels across the area, low-end elevated fire-weather conditions are expected across parts of eastern NM into West TX. Farther north, a broad/weak elongated surface low will drift slowly northeastward from the central/southern Plains into the Midwest. On the backside of this feature, locally dry/breezy post-frontal conditions could support a brief period of elevated fire-weather conditions across parts of KS, where fuels have become increasingly dry. However, these conditions appear too brief/localized for an Elevated area at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1002 AM CST Mon Mar 04 2024 Valid 041700Z - 051200Z The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with no changes or additions made. ..Squitieri.. 03/04/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1147 PM CST Sun Mar 03 2024/ ...Synopsis... Moderate west-southwesterly midlevel flow will persist across the southern High Plains -- along the southern periphery of the primary mid/upper-level jet extending across the central Rockies and adjacent Plains. Related downslope flow off the southern Rockies will result in 15-20 percent minimum RH across the southern High Plains, where a modest surface pressure gradient will yield 15-20 mph sustained westerly surface winds. Given dry/receptive fuels across the area, low-end elevated fire-weather conditions are expected across parts of eastern NM into West TX. Farther north, a broad/weak elongated surface low will drift slowly northeastward from the central/southern Plains into the Midwest. On the backside of this feature, locally dry/breezy post-frontal conditions could support a brief period of elevated fire-weather conditions across parts of KS, where fuels have become increasingly dry. However, these conditions appear too brief/localized for an Elevated area at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1000 AM CST Mon Mar 04 2024 Valid 041630Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD OVER A LARGE AREA FROM EAST TEXAS INTO MOST OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon into tonight from parts of central Texas into the lower Mississippi Valley, as well as from the Ozarks into the Midwest. Large hail is expected to be the main threat, but strong/gusty winds and even a tornado may also occur. ...East TX/LA/Western MS Today... Moderately strong southern-stream mid-level flow is present today across the southern states, with several weak perturbations affecting the area. A warm and moist surface air mass is in place across east TX into LA, where dewpoints in the upper 60s and 70s will yield afternoon MLCAPE of 1500-2000 J/kg. Weak low-level warm advection is expected to result in increasing thunderstorm development this morning through the afternoon as storms spread eastward toward southwest MS. Deep-layer shear is sufficient for at least transient supercell structures, but relatively weak low-level winds suggest the main threats will be hail and gusty winds with the strongest cells. ...Eastern IA/Northern MO/Northern IL... A strong surface cold front is sagging southeastward across IA this morning into a marginally moist and unstable air mass. All 12z model guidance agrees on the development of showers and thunderstorms along the front by early afternoon, although many solutions suggest most of the activity will be behind the front and slightly elevated. Nevertheless, cool temperatures aloft and steep mid-level lapse rates will promote hail in the stronger cores. Storms that can form and persist ahead of the front would have some marginal concern for gusty winds and perhaps a brief tornado as well. ...Eastern OK into Mid MS Valley... Morning model guidance is quite diverse in the development of thunderstorms across this region, with low confidence in any particular area. Will maintain the ongoing MRGL area as a conditional risk if storms can form - mainly due to unseasonably warm and moist conditions and sufficient CAPE for some risk of hail. However, considerably uncertainty exists. ..Hart/Moore.. 03/04/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1000 AM CST Mon Mar 04 2024 Valid 041630Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD OVER A LARGE AREA FROM EAST TEXAS INTO MOST OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon into tonight from parts of central Texas into the lower Mississippi Valley, as well as from the Ozarks into the Midwest. Large hail is expected to be the main threat, but strong/gusty winds and even a tornado may also occur. ...East TX/LA/Western MS Today... Moderately strong southern-stream mid-level flow is present today across the southern states, with several weak perturbations affecting the area. A warm and moist surface air mass is in place across east TX into LA, where dewpoints in the upper 60s and 70s will yield afternoon MLCAPE of 1500-2000 J/kg. Weak low-level warm advection is expected to result in increasing thunderstorm development this morning through the afternoon as storms spread eastward toward southwest MS. Deep-layer shear is sufficient for at least transient supercell structures, but relatively weak low-level winds suggest the main threats will be hail and gusty winds with the strongest cells. ...Eastern IA/Northern MO/Northern IL... A strong surface cold front is sagging southeastward across IA this morning into a marginally moist and unstable air mass. All 12z model guidance agrees on the development of showers and thunderstorms along the front by early afternoon, although many solutions suggest most of the activity will be behind the front and slightly elevated. Nevertheless, cool temperatures aloft and steep mid-level lapse rates will promote hail in the stronger cores. Storms that can form and persist ahead of the front would have some marginal concern for gusty winds and perhaps a brief tornado as well. ...Eastern OK into Mid MS Valley... Morning model guidance is quite diverse in the development of thunderstorms across this region, with low confidence in any particular area. Will maintain the ongoing MRGL area as a conditional risk if storms can form - mainly due to unseasonably warm and moist conditions and sufficient CAPE for some risk of hail. However, considerably uncertainty exists. ..Hart/Moore.. 03/04/2024 Read more