Severe Storms

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1017 AM CST Sat Feb 24 2024 Valid 241630Z - 251200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms are possible across parts of the Carolinas this afternoon. ...Carolinas... A deep upper trough is rotating across the eastern states today, with an associated area of large scale lift and precipitation crossing the Appalachians. Mid-level temperatures are unusually cold across the Mid-Atlantic and Carolinas today, with 500mb temperatures of -28 to -30C. Considerable daytime heating over NC/SC will steepen low-level lapse rates and result in marginal CAPE around peak-heating - despite very meager low level moisture. Most 12z model guidance and machine-learning tools suggest potential for isolated thunderstorms, mainly in the 21-02z period. No severe storms are anticipated. ..Hart/Bentley.. 02/24/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1017 AM CST Sat Feb 24 2024 Valid 241630Z - 251200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms are possible across parts of the Carolinas this afternoon. ...Carolinas... A deep upper trough is rotating across the eastern states today, with an associated area of large scale lift and precipitation crossing the Appalachians. Mid-level temperatures are unusually cold across the Mid-Atlantic and Carolinas today, with 500mb temperatures of -28 to -30C. Considerable daytime heating over NC/SC will steepen low-level lapse rates and result in marginal CAPE around peak-heating - despite very meager low level moisture. Most 12z model guidance and machine-learning tools suggest potential for isolated thunderstorms, mainly in the 21-02z period. No severe storms are anticipated. ..Hart/Bentley.. 02/24/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1017 AM CST Sat Feb 24 2024 Valid 241630Z - 251200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms are possible across parts of the Carolinas this afternoon. ...Carolinas... A deep upper trough is rotating across the eastern states today, with an associated area of large scale lift and precipitation crossing the Appalachians. Mid-level temperatures are unusually cold across the Mid-Atlantic and Carolinas today, with 500mb temperatures of -28 to -30C. Considerable daytime heating over NC/SC will steepen low-level lapse rates and result in marginal CAPE around peak-heating - despite very meager low level moisture. Most 12z model guidance and machine-learning tools suggest potential for isolated thunderstorms, mainly in the 21-02z period. No severe storms are anticipated. ..Hart/Bentley.. 02/24/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1017 AM CST Sat Feb 24 2024 Valid 241630Z - 251200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms are possible across parts of the Carolinas this afternoon. ...Carolinas... A deep upper trough is rotating across the eastern states today, with an associated area of large scale lift and precipitation crossing the Appalachians. Mid-level temperatures are unusually cold across the Mid-Atlantic and Carolinas today, with 500mb temperatures of -28 to -30C. Considerable daytime heating over NC/SC will steepen low-level lapse rates and result in marginal CAPE around peak-heating - despite very meager low level moisture. Most 12z model guidance and machine-learning tools suggest potential for isolated thunderstorms, mainly in the 21-02z period. No severe storms are anticipated. ..Hart/Bentley.. 02/24/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1017 AM CST Sat Feb 24 2024 Valid 241630Z - 251200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms are possible across parts of the Carolinas this afternoon. ...Carolinas... A deep upper trough is rotating across the eastern states today, with an associated area of large scale lift and precipitation crossing the Appalachians. Mid-level temperatures are unusually cold across the Mid-Atlantic and Carolinas today, with 500mb temperatures of -28 to -30C. Considerable daytime heating over NC/SC will steepen low-level lapse rates and result in marginal CAPE around peak-heating - despite very meager low level moisture. Most 12z model guidance and machine-learning tools suggest potential for isolated thunderstorms, mainly in the 21-02z period. No severe storms are anticipated. ..Hart/Bentley.. 02/24/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0638 AM CST Sat Feb 24 2024 Valid 241300Z - 251200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms are possible across parts of the Carolinas this afternoon. ...Discussion... Gradual deamplification of the upper flow field over the U.S. is expected today, as a trough over the eastern U.S. advances eastward, and eventually offshore. In its wake, fast northwesterly flow will prevail across essentially the entire country. At the surface, high pressure will largely prevail, with the exception of a weak lee trough over the High Plains. With a cold front shifting eastward across the western Atlantic and southward across the Gulf of Mexico, little potential for thunder is evident across most of the country. One exception will be across portions of the Carolinas and vicinity, as a short-wave trough currently crossing the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys continues southeastward toward the Atlantic Coast. Cold air/steep lapse rates aloft associated with this system will overspread the Middle and Southern Atlantic Coastal areas, and help contribute to weak destabilization across the Carolinas this afternoon. The weak instability, combined with QG ascent, may aid in the development of low-topped showers and a few thunderstorms that may linger into the evening before weakening/moving offshore. Elsewhere, thunderstorms are not expected. ..Goss/Broyles.. 02/24/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0638 AM CST Sat Feb 24 2024 Valid 241300Z - 251200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms are possible across parts of the Carolinas this afternoon. ...Discussion... Gradual deamplification of the upper flow field over the U.S. is expected today, as a trough over the eastern U.S. advances eastward, and eventually offshore. In its wake, fast northwesterly flow will prevail across essentially the entire country. At the surface, high pressure will largely prevail, with the exception of a weak lee trough over the High Plains. With a cold front shifting eastward across the western Atlantic and southward across the Gulf of Mexico, little potential for thunder is evident across most of the country. One exception will be across portions of the Carolinas and vicinity, as a short-wave trough currently crossing the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys continues southeastward toward the Atlantic Coast. Cold air/steep lapse rates aloft associated with this system will overspread the Middle and Southern Atlantic Coastal areas, and help contribute to weak destabilization across the Carolinas this afternoon. The weak instability, combined with QG ascent, may aid in the development of low-topped showers and a few thunderstorms that may linger into the evening before weakening/moving offshore. Elsewhere, thunderstorms are not expected. ..Goss/Broyles.. 02/24/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0638 AM CST Sat Feb 24 2024 Valid 241300Z - 251200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms are possible across parts of the Carolinas this afternoon. ...Discussion... Gradual deamplification of the upper flow field over the U.S. is expected today, as a trough over the eastern U.S. advances eastward, and eventually offshore. In its wake, fast northwesterly flow will prevail across essentially the entire country. At the surface, high pressure will largely prevail, with the exception of a weak lee trough over the High Plains. With a cold front shifting eastward across the western Atlantic and southward across the Gulf of Mexico, little potential for thunder is evident across most of the country. One exception will be across portions of the Carolinas and vicinity, as a short-wave trough currently crossing the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys continues southeastward toward the Atlantic Coast. Cold air/steep lapse rates aloft associated with this system will overspread the Middle and Southern Atlantic Coastal areas, and help contribute to weak destabilization across the Carolinas this afternoon. The weak instability, combined with QG ascent, may aid in the development of low-topped showers and a few thunderstorms that may linger into the evening before weakening/moving offshore. Elsewhere, thunderstorms are not expected. ..Goss/Broyles.. 02/24/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0638 AM CST Sat Feb 24 2024 Valid 241300Z - 251200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms are possible across parts of the Carolinas this afternoon. ...Discussion... Gradual deamplification of the upper flow field over the U.S. is expected today, as a trough over the eastern U.S. advances eastward, and eventually offshore. In its wake, fast northwesterly flow will prevail across essentially the entire country. At the surface, high pressure will largely prevail, with the exception of a weak lee trough over the High Plains. With a cold front shifting eastward across the western Atlantic and southward across the Gulf of Mexico, little potential for thunder is evident across most of the country. One exception will be across portions of the Carolinas and vicinity, as a short-wave trough currently crossing the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys continues southeastward toward the Atlantic Coast. Cold air/steep lapse rates aloft associated with this system will overspread the Middle and Southern Atlantic Coastal areas, and help contribute to weak destabilization across the Carolinas this afternoon. The weak instability, combined with QG ascent, may aid in the development of low-topped showers and a few thunderstorms that may linger into the evening before weakening/moving offshore. Elsewhere, thunderstorms are not expected. ..Goss/Broyles.. 02/24/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0638 AM CST Sat Feb 24 2024 Valid 241300Z - 251200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms are possible across parts of the Carolinas this afternoon. ...Discussion... Gradual deamplification of the upper flow field over the U.S. is expected today, as a trough over the eastern U.S. advances eastward, and eventually offshore. In its wake, fast northwesterly flow will prevail across essentially the entire country. At the surface, high pressure will largely prevail, with the exception of a weak lee trough over the High Plains. With a cold front shifting eastward across the western Atlantic and southward across the Gulf of Mexico, little potential for thunder is evident across most of the country. One exception will be across portions of the Carolinas and vicinity, as a short-wave trough currently crossing the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys continues southeastward toward the Atlantic Coast. Cold air/steep lapse rates aloft associated with this system will overspread the Middle and Southern Atlantic Coastal areas, and help contribute to weak destabilization across the Carolinas this afternoon. The weak instability, combined with QG ascent, may aid in the development of low-topped showers and a few thunderstorms that may linger into the evening before weakening/moving offshore. Elsewhere, thunderstorms are not expected. ..Goss/Broyles.. 02/24/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0638 AM CST Sat Feb 24 2024 Valid 241300Z - 251200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms are possible across parts of the Carolinas this afternoon. ...Discussion... Gradual deamplification of the upper flow field over the U.S. is expected today, as a trough over the eastern U.S. advances eastward, and eventually offshore. In its wake, fast northwesterly flow will prevail across essentially the entire country. At the surface, high pressure will largely prevail, with the exception of a weak lee trough over the High Plains. With a cold front shifting eastward across the western Atlantic and southward across the Gulf of Mexico, little potential for thunder is evident across most of the country. One exception will be across portions of the Carolinas and vicinity, as a short-wave trough currently crossing the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys continues southeastward toward the Atlantic Coast. Cold air/steep lapse rates aloft associated with this system will overspread the Middle and Southern Atlantic Coastal areas, and help contribute to weak destabilization across the Carolinas this afternoon. The weak instability, combined with QG ascent, may aid in the development of low-topped showers and a few thunderstorms that may linger into the evening before weakening/moving offshore. Elsewhere, thunderstorms are not expected. ..Goss/Broyles.. 02/24/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0638 AM CST Sat Feb 24 2024 Valid 241300Z - 251200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms are possible across parts of the Carolinas this afternoon. ...Discussion... Gradual deamplification of the upper flow field over the U.S. is expected today, as a trough over the eastern U.S. advances eastward, and eventually offshore. In its wake, fast northwesterly flow will prevail across essentially the entire country. At the surface, high pressure will largely prevail, with the exception of a weak lee trough over the High Plains. With a cold front shifting eastward across the western Atlantic and southward across the Gulf of Mexico, little potential for thunder is evident across most of the country. One exception will be across portions of the Carolinas and vicinity, as a short-wave trough currently crossing the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys continues southeastward toward the Atlantic Coast. Cold air/steep lapse rates aloft associated with this system will overspread the Middle and Southern Atlantic Coastal areas, and help contribute to weak destabilization across the Carolinas this afternoon. The weak instability, combined with QG ascent, may aid in the development of low-topped showers and a few thunderstorms that may linger into the evening before weakening/moving offshore. Elsewhere, thunderstorms are not expected. ..Goss/Broyles.. 02/24/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0638 AM CST Sat Feb 24 2024 Valid 241300Z - 251200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms are possible across parts of the Carolinas this afternoon. ...Discussion... Gradual deamplification of the upper flow field over the U.S. is expected today, as a trough over the eastern U.S. advances eastward, and eventually offshore. In its wake, fast northwesterly flow will prevail across essentially the entire country. At the surface, high pressure will largely prevail, with the exception of a weak lee trough over the High Plains. With a cold front shifting eastward across the western Atlantic and southward across the Gulf of Mexico, little potential for thunder is evident across most of the country. One exception will be across portions of the Carolinas and vicinity, as a short-wave trough currently crossing the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys continues southeastward toward the Atlantic Coast. Cold air/steep lapse rates aloft associated with this system will overspread the Middle and Southern Atlantic Coastal areas, and help contribute to weak destabilization across the Carolinas this afternoon. The weak instability, combined with QG ascent, may aid in the development of low-topped showers and a few thunderstorms that may linger into the evening before weakening/moving offshore. Elsewhere, thunderstorms are not expected. ..Goss/Broyles.. 02/24/2024 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CST Sat Feb 24 2024 Valid 271200Z - 031200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Tuesday/Day 4 and Wednesday/Day 5... An upper-level trough is forecast to move across the central U.S. on Tuesday, as an associated mid-level jet moves from the southern Plains into the mid Mississippi Valley. Moisture advection, ahead of a cold front, will likely take place from the Ark-La-Tex northeastward into the southern Great Lakes. In spite of abundant cloud cover, some destabilization is forecast across the moist sector ahead of the front. The ECMWF has MLCAPE generally peaking in the 500 to 1000 J/kg range along parts of the moist axis by afternoon. As thunderstorms develop ahead of the front during the late afternoon and early evening, a severe threat is expected from the Ozarks northward into the southern Great Lakes. Wind-damage, and perhaps a few tornadoes would be possible with supercells and/or the stronger bowing line segments. The front is timed to be in far western Kentucky and far northwest Tennessee by 12Z Wednesday. At that time, multiple line segments could be ongoing just ahead of the front. With the strong low-level flow in place, along with focused bands of large-scale ascent associated with the approaching upper-level trough, the more organized line segments may be capable of producing wind damage. There is considerable uncertainty, mainly due to the timing of the threat near minimum heating. However, the potential severe threat appears great enough to warrant leaving a 15 percent contour in place for Wednesday/Day 5 from parts of northern Mississippi, northern Alabama northward to near the Ohio River. The threat ahead of the front is expected to decrease some during the afternoon, as the stronger low-level flow ahead of the front weakens somewhat. ...Thursday/Day 6 to Saturday/Day 8... On Thursday and Friday, a shortwave trough is forecast to move eastward from the southern Plains into the southern Appalachians. Limited moisture return and weak instability ahead of the trough are negative factors concerning a severe threat. However, some potential for organized convection appears possible across the central Gulf Coast, along the northern edge of the moist sector. A potential for strong storms across parts of the Gulf Coast could continue into Saturday, along and near the northern edge of the moist sector. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CST Sat Feb 24 2024 Valid 271200Z - 031200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Tuesday/Day 4 and Wednesday/Day 5... An upper-level trough is forecast to move across the central U.S. on Tuesday, as an associated mid-level jet moves from the southern Plains into the mid Mississippi Valley. Moisture advection, ahead of a cold front, will likely take place from the Ark-La-Tex northeastward into the southern Great Lakes. In spite of abundant cloud cover, some destabilization is forecast across the moist sector ahead of the front. The ECMWF has MLCAPE generally peaking in the 500 to 1000 J/kg range along parts of the moist axis by afternoon. As thunderstorms develop ahead of the front during the late afternoon and early evening, a severe threat is expected from the Ozarks northward into the southern Great Lakes. Wind-damage, and perhaps a few tornadoes would be possible with supercells and/or the stronger bowing line segments. The front is timed to be in far western Kentucky and far northwest Tennessee by 12Z Wednesday. At that time, multiple line segments could be ongoing just ahead of the front. With the strong low-level flow in place, along with focused bands of large-scale ascent associated with the approaching upper-level trough, the more organized line segments may be capable of producing wind damage. There is considerable uncertainty, mainly due to the timing of the threat near minimum heating. However, the potential severe threat appears great enough to warrant leaving a 15 percent contour in place for Wednesday/Day 5 from parts of northern Mississippi, northern Alabama northward to near the Ohio River. The threat ahead of the front is expected to decrease some during the afternoon, as the stronger low-level flow ahead of the front weakens somewhat. ...Thursday/Day 6 to Saturday/Day 8... On Thursday and Friday, a shortwave trough is forecast to move eastward from the southern Plains into the southern Appalachians. Limited moisture return and weak instability ahead of the trough are negative factors concerning a severe threat. However, some potential for organized convection appears possible across the central Gulf Coast, along the northern edge of the moist sector. A potential for strong storms across parts of the Gulf Coast could continue into Saturday, along and near the northern edge of the moist sector. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CST Sat Feb 24 2024 Valid 271200Z - 031200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Tuesday/Day 4 and Wednesday/Day 5... An upper-level trough is forecast to move across the central U.S. on Tuesday, as an associated mid-level jet moves from the southern Plains into the mid Mississippi Valley. Moisture advection, ahead of a cold front, will likely take place from the Ark-La-Tex northeastward into the southern Great Lakes. In spite of abundant cloud cover, some destabilization is forecast across the moist sector ahead of the front. The ECMWF has MLCAPE generally peaking in the 500 to 1000 J/kg range along parts of the moist axis by afternoon. As thunderstorms develop ahead of the front during the late afternoon and early evening, a severe threat is expected from the Ozarks northward into the southern Great Lakes. Wind-damage, and perhaps a few tornadoes would be possible with supercells and/or the stronger bowing line segments. The front is timed to be in far western Kentucky and far northwest Tennessee by 12Z Wednesday. At that time, multiple line segments could be ongoing just ahead of the front. With the strong low-level flow in place, along with focused bands of large-scale ascent associated with the approaching upper-level trough, the more organized line segments may be capable of producing wind damage. There is considerable uncertainty, mainly due to the timing of the threat near minimum heating. However, the potential severe threat appears great enough to warrant leaving a 15 percent contour in place for Wednesday/Day 5 from parts of northern Mississippi, northern Alabama northward to near the Ohio River. The threat ahead of the front is expected to decrease some during the afternoon, as the stronger low-level flow ahead of the front weakens somewhat. ...Thursday/Day 6 to Saturday/Day 8... On Thursday and Friday, a shortwave trough is forecast to move eastward from the southern Plains into the southern Appalachians. Limited moisture return and weak instability ahead of the trough are negative factors concerning a severe threat. However, some potential for organized convection appears possible across the central Gulf Coast, along the northern edge of the moist sector. A potential for strong storms across parts of the Gulf Coast could continue into Saturday, along and near the northern edge of the moist sector. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CST Sat Feb 24 2024 Valid 271200Z - 031200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Tuesday/Day 4 and Wednesday/Day 5... An upper-level trough is forecast to move across the central U.S. on Tuesday, as an associated mid-level jet moves from the southern Plains into the mid Mississippi Valley. Moisture advection, ahead of a cold front, will likely take place from the Ark-La-Tex northeastward into the southern Great Lakes. In spite of abundant cloud cover, some destabilization is forecast across the moist sector ahead of the front. The ECMWF has MLCAPE generally peaking in the 500 to 1000 J/kg range along parts of the moist axis by afternoon. As thunderstorms develop ahead of the front during the late afternoon and early evening, a severe threat is expected from the Ozarks northward into the southern Great Lakes. Wind-damage, and perhaps a few tornadoes would be possible with supercells and/or the stronger bowing line segments. The front is timed to be in far western Kentucky and far northwest Tennessee by 12Z Wednesday. At that time, multiple line segments could be ongoing just ahead of the front. With the strong low-level flow in place, along with focused bands of large-scale ascent associated with the approaching upper-level trough, the more organized line segments may be capable of producing wind damage. There is considerable uncertainty, mainly due to the timing of the threat near minimum heating. However, the potential severe threat appears great enough to warrant leaving a 15 percent contour in place for Wednesday/Day 5 from parts of northern Mississippi, northern Alabama northward to near the Ohio River. The threat ahead of the front is expected to decrease some during the afternoon, as the stronger low-level flow ahead of the front weakens somewhat. ...Thursday/Day 6 to Saturday/Day 8... On Thursday and Friday, a shortwave trough is forecast to move eastward from the southern Plains into the southern Appalachians. Limited moisture return and weak instability ahead of the trough are negative factors concerning a severe threat. However, some potential for organized convection appears possible across the central Gulf Coast, along the northern edge of the moist sector. A potential for strong storms across parts of the Gulf Coast could continue into Saturday, along and near the northern edge of the moist sector. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CST Sat Feb 24 2024 Valid 271200Z - 031200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Tuesday/Day 4 and Wednesday/Day 5... An upper-level trough is forecast to move across the central U.S. on Tuesday, as an associated mid-level jet moves from the southern Plains into the mid Mississippi Valley. Moisture advection, ahead of a cold front, will likely take place from the Ark-La-Tex northeastward into the southern Great Lakes. In spite of abundant cloud cover, some destabilization is forecast across the moist sector ahead of the front. The ECMWF has MLCAPE generally peaking in the 500 to 1000 J/kg range along parts of the moist axis by afternoon. As thunderstorms develop ahead of the front during the late afternoon and early evening, a severe threat is expected from the Ozarks northward into the southern Great Lakes. Wind-damage, and perhaps a few tornadoes would be possible with supercells and/or the stronger bowing line segments. The front is timed to be in far western Kentucky and far northwest Tennessee by 12Z Wednesday. At that time, multiple line segments could be ongoing just ahead of the front. With the strong low-level flow in place, along with focused bands of large-scale ascent associated with the approaching upper-level trough, the more organized line segments may be capable of producing wind damage. There is considerable uncertainty, mainly due to the timing of the threat near minimum heating. However, the potential severe threat appears great enough to warrant leaving a 15 percent contour in place for Wednesday/Day 5 from parts of northern Mississippi, northern Alabama northward to near the Ohio River. The threat ahead of the front is expected to decrease some during the afternoon, as the stronger low-level flow ahead of the front weakens somewhat. ...Thursday/Day 6 to Saturday/Day 8... On Thursday and Friday, a shortwave trough is forecast to move eastward from the southern Plains into the southern Appalachians. Limited moisture return and weak instability ahead of the trough are negative factors concerning a severe threat. However, some potential for organized convection appears possible across the central Gulf Coast, along the northern edge of the moist sector. A potential for strong storms across parts of the Gulf Coast could continue into Saturday, along and near the northern edge of the moist sector. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CST Sat Feb 24 2024 Valid 271200Z - 031200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Tuesday/Day 4 and Wednesday/Day 5... An upper-level trough is forecast to move across the central U.S. on Tuesday, as an associated mid-level jet moves from the southern Plains into the mid Mississippi Valley. Moisture advection, ahead of a cold front, will likely take place from the Ark-La-Tex northeastward into the southern Great Lakes. In spite of abundant cloud cover, some destabilization is forecast across the moist sector ahead of the front. The ECMWF has MLCAPE generally peaking in the 500 to 1000 J/kg range along parts of the moist axis by afternoon. As thunderstorms develop ahead of the front during the late afternoon and early evening, a severe threat is expected from the Ozarks northward into the southern Great Lakes. Wind-damage, and perhaps a few tornadoes would be possible with supercells and/or the stronger bowing line segments. The front is timed to be in far western Kentucky and far northwest Tennessee by 12Z Wednesday. At that time, multiple line segments could be ongoing just ahead of the front. With the strong low-level flow in place, along with focused bands of large-scale ascent associated with the approaching upper-level trough, the more organized line segments may be capable of producing wind damage. There is considerable uncertainty, mainly due to the timing of the threat near minimum heating. However, the potential severe threat appears great enough to warrant leaving a 15 percent contour in place for Wednesday/Day 5 from parts of northern Mississippi, northern Alabama northward to near the Ohio River. The threat ahead of the front is expected to decrease some during the afternoon, as the stronger low-level flow ahead of the front weakens somewhat. ...Thursday/Day 6 to Saturday/Day 8... On Thursday and Friday, a shortwave trough is forecast to move eastward from the southern Plains into the southern Appalachians. Limited moisture return and weak instability ahead of the trough are negative factors concerning a severe threat. However, some potential for organized convection appears possible across the central Gulf Coast, along the northern edge of the moist sector. A potential for strong storms across parts of the Gulf Coast could continue into Saturday, along and near the northern edge of the moist sector. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CST Sat Feb 24 2024 Valid 271200Z - 031200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Tuesday/Day 4 and Wednesday/Day 5... An upper-level trough is forecast to move across the central U.S. on Tuesday, as an associated mid-level jet moves from the southern Plains into the mid Mississippi Valley. Moisture advection, ahead of a cold front, will likely take place from the Ark-La-Tex northeastward into the southern Great Lakes. In spite of abundant cloud cover, some destabilization is forecast across the moist sector ahead of the front. The ECMWF has MLCAPE generally peaking in the 500 to 1000 J/kg range along parts of the moist axis by afternoon. As thunderstorms develop ahead of the front during the late afternoon and early evening, a severe threat is expected from the Ozarks northward into the southern Great Lakes. Wind-damage, and perhaps a few tornadoes would be possible with supercells and/or the stronger bowing line segments. The front is timed to be in far western Kentucky and far northwest Tennessee by 12Z Wednesday. At that time, multiple line segments could be ongoing just ahead of the front. With the strong low-level flow in place, along with focused bands of large-scale ascent associated with the approaching upper-level trough, the more organized line segments may be capable of producing wind damage. There is considerable uncertainty, mainly due to the timing of the threat near minimum heating. However, the potential severe threat appears great enough to warrant leaving a 15 percent contour in place for Wednesday/Day 5 from parts of northern Mississippi, northern Alabama northward to near the Ohio River. The threat ahead of the front is expected to decrease some during the afternoon, as the stronger low-level flow ahead of the front weakens somewhat. ...Thursday/Day 6 to Saturday/Day 8... On Thursday and Friday, a shortwave trough is forecast to move eastward from the southern Plains into the southern Appalachians. Limited moisture return and weak instability ahead of the trough are negative factors concerning a severe threat. However, some potential for organized convection appears possible across the central Gulf Coast, along the northern edge of the moist sector. A potential for strong storms across parts of the Gulf Coast could continue into Saturday, along and near the northern edge of the moist sector. Read more