Severe Storms

WW 0026 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 26 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 W SBN TO 15 W AZO TO 15 SSW GRR TO 20 E MKG. ..SPC..02/28/24 ATTN...WFO...IWX...GRR...DTX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 26 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS INC003-033-039-085-087-091-099-113-141-149-151-183-280640- IN . INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALLEN DE KALB ELKHART KOSCIUSKO LAGRANGE LA PORTE MARSHALL NOBLE ST. JOSEPH STARKE STEUBEN WHITLEY MIC015-021-023-025-027-037-045-057-059-065-067-075-077-081-091- 093-117-145-149-155-161-280640- MI . MICHIGAN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARRY BERRIEN BRANCH CALHOUN CASS CLINTON EATON GRATIOT HILLSDALE INGHAM IONIA JACKSON KALAMAZOO KENT LENAWEE LIVINGSTON MONTCALM SAGINAW ST. JOSEPH SHIAWASSEE WASHTENAW Read more

WW 0026 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 26 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 W SBN TO 15 W AZO TO 15 SSW GRR TO 20 E MKG. ..SPC..02/28/24 ATTN...WFO...IWX...GRR...DTX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 26 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS INC003-033-039-085-087-091-099-113-141-149-151-183-280640- IN . INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALLEN DE KALB ELKHART KOSCIUSKO LAGRANGE LA PORTE MARSHALL NOBLE ST. JOSEPH STARKE STEUBEN WHITLEY MIC015-021-023-025-027-037-045-057-059-065-067-075-077-081-091- 093-117-145-149-155-161-280640- MI . MICHIGAN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARRY BERRIEN BRANCH CALHOUN CASS CLINTON EATON GRATIOT HILLSDALE INGHAM IONIA JACKSON KALAMAZOO KENT LENAWEE LIVINGSTON MONTCALM SAGINAW ST. JOSEPH SHIAWASSEE WASHTENAW Read more

WW 0026 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 26 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 W SBN TO 15 W AZO TO 15 SSW GRR TO 20 E MKG. ..SPC..02/28/24 ATTN...WFO...IWX...GRR...DTX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 26 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS INC003-033-039-085-087-091-099-113-141-149-151-183-280640- IN . INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALLEN DE KALB ELKHART KOSCIUSKO LAGRANGE LA PORTE MARSHALL NOBLE ST. JOSEPH STARKE STEUBEN WHITLEY MIC015-021-023-025-027-037-045-057-059-065-067-075-077-081-091- 093-117-145-149-155-161-280640- MI . MICHIGAN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARRY BERRIEN BRANCH CALHOUN CASS CLINTON EATON GRATIOT HILLSDALE INGHAM IONIA JACKSON KALAMAZOO KENT LENAWEE LIVINGSTON MONTCALM SAGINAW ST. JOSEPH SHIAWASSEE WASHTENAW Read more

WW 0026 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 26 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 W SBN TO 15 W AZO TO 15 SSW GRR TO 20 E MKG. ..SPC..02/28/24 ATTN...WFO...IWX...GRR...DTX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 26 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS INC003-033-039-085-087-091-099-113-141-149-151-183-280640- IN . INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALLEN DE KALB ELKHART KOSCIUSKO LAGRANGE LA PORTE MARSHALL NOBLE ST. JOSEPH STARKE STEUBEN WHITLEY MIC015-021-023-025-027-037-045-057-059-065-067-075-077-081-091- 093-117-145-149-155-161-280640- MI . MICHIGAN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARRY BERRIEN BRANCH CALHOUN CASS CLINTON EATON GRATIOT HILLSDALE INGHAM IONIA JACKSON KALAMAZOO KENT LENAWEE LIVINGSTON MONTCALM SAGINAW ST. JOSEPH SHIAWASSEE WASHTENAW Read more

WW 26 SEVERE TSTM IN MI OH LM 280245Z - 281000Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 26 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 945 PM EST Tue Feb 27 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Northern Indiana Southern Lower Michigan Extreme northwestern Ohio Lake Michigan * Effective this Tuesday night and Wednesday morning from 945 PM until 500 AM EST. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...A complex of severe thunderstorms, initially exiting the Chicagoland area and crossing southern Lake Michigan, will continue to pose a threat mainly for severe gusts and hail as it moves into MI, though a tornado or two cannot be ruled out. Meanwhile, thunderstorms forming over northern IN ahead of the complex may offer large hail and strong gusts as they move northeastward as well. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 70 statute miles north and south of a line from 15 miles west southwest of Benton Harbor MI to 30 miles east northeast of Jackson MI. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 25... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm motion vector 25035. ...Edwards Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1107 PM CST Tue Feb 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF EASTERN TENNESSEE AND KENTUCKY INTO UPSTATE NEW YORK... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe gusts will be possible today from eastern Tennessee and Kentucky into the Northeast. ...Synopsis... A deep upper trough will move rapidly from the upper MS Valley across the Great Lakes through 00Z, and into New England by Thursday morning. An intense 500 mb jet of 120 kt will exist along the east side of the trough, with meridional orientation. At the surface, low pressure will continue to deepen as it moves from Lake Huron early this morning into northern Quebec by 00Z. A fast-moving cold front will extend south from the low, moving from KY and TN across the Appalachians by late afternoon. Ahead of the cold front, a narrow plume of 50s F dewpoints will extend as far north as southwest PA, with 60+ F values from TN/MS southward. Aiding moisture advection early will be 50-60 kt southwesterly 850 mb flow, but winds will quickly veer with frontal passage and drying. ...Parts of eastern TN/KY across the Appalachians into NY/southwest New England... Rain and storms are likely to be ongoing along much of the cold front early this morning, from OH into northern MS. This activity is expected to be rather disorganized, as the front encounters a somewhat moist and weakly unstable air mass. Forecast soundings ahead of the front during the day depict low-topped convective potential, perhaps with little if any lightning. However, given the strong linear forcing along the front and potential for mixing down of the stronger winds just off the surface, will maintain low probabilities for locally strong to severe gusts. ..Jewell/Lyons.. 02/28/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1107 PM CST Tue Feb 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF EASTERN TENNESSEE AND KENTUCKY INTO UPSTATE NEW YORK... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe gusts will be possible today from eastern Tennessee and Kentucky into the Northeast. ...Synopsis... A deep upper trough will move rapidly from the upper MS Valley across the Great Lakes through 00Z, and into New England by Thursday morning. An intense 500 mb jet of 120 kt will exist along the east side of the trough, with meridional orientation. At the surface, low pressure will continue to deepen as it moves from Lake Huron early this morning into northern Quebec by 00Z. A fast-moving cold front will extend south from the low, moving from KY and TN across the Appalachians by late afternoon. Ahead of the cold front, a narrow plume of 50s F dewpoints will extend as far north as southwest PA, with 60+ F values from TN/MS southward. Aiding moisture advection early will be 50-60 kt southwesterly 850 mb flow, but winds will quickly veer with frontal passage and drying. ...Parts of eastern TN/KY across the Appalachians into NY/southwest New England... Rain and storms are likely to be ongoing along much of the cold front early this morning, from OH into northern MS. This activity is expected to be rather disorganized, as the front encounters a somewhat moist and weakly unstable air mass. Forecast soundings ahead of the front during the day depict low-topped convective potential, perhaps with little if any lightning. However, given the strong linear forcing along the front and potential for mixing down of the stronger winds just off the surface, will maintain low probabilities for locally strong to severe gusts. ..Jewell/Lyons.. 02/28/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1107 PM CST Tue Feb 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF EASTERN TENNESSEE AND KENTUCKY INTO UPSTATE NEW YORK... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe gusts will be possible today from eastern Tennessee and Kentucky into the Northeast. ...Synopsis... A deep upper trough will move rapidly from the upper MS Valley across the Great Lakes through 00Z, and into New England by Thursday morning. An intense 500 mb jet of 120 kt will exist along the east side of the trough, with meridional orientation. At the surface, low pressure will continue to deepen as it moves from Lake Huron early this morning into northern Quebec by 00Z. A fast-moving cold front will extend south from the low, moving from KY and TN across the Appalachians by late afternoon. Ahead of the cold front, a narrow plume of 50s F dewpoints will extend as far north as southwest PA, with 60+ F values from TN/MS southward. Aiding moisture advection early will be 50-60 kt southwesterly 850 mb flow, but winds will quickly veer with frontal passage and drying. ...Parts of eastern TN/KY across the Appalachians into NY/southwest New England... Rain and storms are likely to be ongoing along much of the cold front early this morning, from OH into northern MS. This activity is expected to be rather disorganized, as the front encounters a somewhat moist and weakly unstable air mass. Forecast soundings ahead of the front during the day depict low-topped convective potential, perhaps with little if any lightning. However, given the strong linear forcing along the front and potential for mixing down of the stronger winds just off the surface, will maintain low probabilities for locally strong to severe gusts. ..Jewell/Lyons.. 02/28/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1107 PM CST Tue Feb 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF EASTERN TENNESSEE AND KENTUCKY INTO UPSTATE NEW YORK... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe gusts will be possible today from eastern Tennessee and Kentucky into the Northeast. ...Synopsis... A deep upper trough will move rapidly from the upper MS Valley across the Great Lakes through 00Z, and into New England by Thursday morning. An intense 500 mb jet of 120 kt will exist along the east side of the trough, with meridional orientation. At the surface, low pressure will continue to deepen as it moves from Lake Huron early this morning into northern Quebec by 00Z. A fast-moving cold front will extend south from the low, moving from KY and TN across the Appalachians by late afternoon. Ahead of the cold front, a narrow plume of 50s F dewpoints will extend as far north as southwest PA, with 60+ F values from TN/MS southward. Aiding moisture advection early will be 50-60 kt southwesterly 850 mb flow, but winds will quickly veer with frontal passage and drying. ...Parts of eastern TN/KY across the Appalachians into NY/southwest New England... Rain and storms are likely to be ongoing along much of the cold front early this morning, from OH into northern MS. This activity is expected to be rather disorganized, as the front encounters a somewhat moist and weakly unstable air mass. Forecast soundings ahead of the front during the day depict low-topped convective potential, perhaps with little if any lightning. However, given the strong linear forcing along the front and potential for mixing down of the stronger winds just off the surface, will maintain low probabilities for locally strong to severe gusts. ..Jewell/Lyons.. 02/28/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1107 PM CST Tue Feb 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF EASTERN TENNESSEE AND KENTUCKY INTO UPSTATE NEW YORK... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe gusts will be possible today from eastern Tennessee and Kentucky into the Northeast. ...Synopsis... A deep upper trough will move rapidly from the upper MS Valley across the Great Lakes through 00Z, and into New England by Thursday morning. An intense 500 mb jet of 120 kt will exist along the east side of the trough, with meridional orientation. At the surface, low pressure will continue to deepen as it moves from Lake Huron early this morning into northern Quebec by 00Z. A fast-moving cold front will extend south from the low, moving from KY and TN across the Appalachians by late afternoon. Ahead of the cold front, a narrow plume of 50s F dewpoints will extend as far north as southwest PA, with 60+ F values from TN/MS southward. Aiding moisture advection early will be 50-60 kt southwesterly 850 mb flow, but winds will quickly veer with frontal passage and drying. ...Parts of eastern TN/KY across the Appalachians into NY/southwest New England... Rain and storms are likely to be ongoing along much of the cold front early this morning, from OH into northern MS. This activity is expected to be rather disorganized, as the front encounters a somewhat moist and weakly unstable air mass. Forecast soundings ahead of the front during the day depict low-topped convective potential, perhaps with little if any lightning. However, given the strong linear forcing along the front and potential for mixing down of the stronger winds just off the surface, will maintain low probabilities for locally strong to severe gusts. ..Jewell/Lyons.. 02/28/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1107 PM CST Tue Feb 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF EASTERN TENNESSEE AND KENTUCKY INTO UPSTATE NEW YORK... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe gusts will be possible today from eastern Tennessee and Kentucky into the Northeast. ...Synopsis... A deep upper trough will move rapidly from the upper MS Valley across the Great Lakes through 00Z, and into New England by Thursday morning. An intense 500 mb jet of 120 kt will exist along the east side of the trough, with meridional orientation. At the surface, low pressure will continue to deepen as it moves from Lake Huron early this morning into northern Quebec by 00Z. A fast-moving cold front will extend south from the low, moving from KY and TN across the Appalachians by late afternoon. Ahead of the cold front, a narrow plume of 50s F dewpoints will extend as far north as southwest PA, with 60+ F values from TN/MS southward. Aiding moisture advection early will be 50-60 kt southwesterly 850 mb flow, but winds will quickly veer with frontal passage and drying. ...Parts of eastern TN/KY across the Appalachians into NY/southwest New England... Rain and storms are likely to be ongoing along much of the cold front early this morning, from OH into northern MS. This activity is expected to be rather disorganized, as the front encounters a somewhat moist and weakly unstable air mass. Forecast soundings ahead of the front during the day depict low-topped convective potential, perhaps with little if any lightning. However, given the strong linear forcing along the front and potential for mixing down of the stronger winds just off the surface, will maintain low probabilities for locally strong to severe gusts. ..Jewell/Lyons.. 02/28/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1107 PM CST Tue Feb 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF EASTERN TENNESSEE AND KENTUCKY INTO UPSTATE NEW YORK... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe gusts will be possible today from eastern Tennessee and Kentucky into the Northeast. ...Synopsis... A deep upper trough will move rapidly from the upper MS Valley across the Great Lakes through 00Z, and into New England by Thursday morning. An intense 500 mb jet of 120 kt will exist along the east side of the trough, with meridional orientation. At the surface, low pressure will continue to deepen as it moves from Lake Huron early this morning into northern Quebec by 00Z. A fast-moving cold front will extend south from the low, moving from KY and TN across the Appalachians by late afternoon. Ahead of the cold front, a narrow plume of 50s F dewpoints will extend as far north as southwest PA, with 60+ F values from TN/MS southward. Aiding moisture advection early will be 50-60 kt southwesterly 850 mb flow, but winds will quickly veer with frontal passage and drying. ...Parts of eastern TN/KY across the Appalachians into NY/southwest New England... Rain and storms are likely to be ongoing along much of the cold front early this morning, from OH into northern MS. This activity is expected to be rather disorganized, as the front encounters a somewhat moist and weakly unstable air mass. Forecast soundings ahead of the front during the day depict low-topped convective potential, perhaps with little if any lightning. However, given the strong linear forcing along the front and potential for mixing down of the stronger winds just off the surface, will maintain low probabilities for locally strong to severe gusts. ..Jewell/Lyons.. 02/28/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1107 PM CST Tue Feb 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF EASTERN TENNESSEE AND KENTUCKY INTO UPSTATE NEW YORK... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe gusts will be possible today from eastern Tennessee and Kentucky into the Northeast. ...Synopsis... A deep upper trough will move rapidly from the upper MS Valley across the Great Lakes through 00Z, and into New England by Thursday morning. An intense 500 mb jet of 120 kt will exist along the east side of the trough, with meridional orientation. At the surface, low pressure will continue to deepen as it moves from Lake Huron early this morning into northern Quebec by 00Z. A fast-moving cold front will extend south from the low, moving from KY and TN across the Appalachians by late afternoon. Ahead of the cold front, a narrow plume of 50s F dewpoints will extend as far north as southwest PA, with 60+ F values from TN/MS southward. Aiding moisture advection early will be 50-60 kt southwesterly 850 mb flow, but winds will quickly veer with frontal passage and drying. ...Parts of eastern TN/KY across the Appalachians into NY/southwest New England... Rain and storms are likely to be ongoing along much of the cold front early this morning, from OH into northern MS. This activity is expected to be rather disorganized, as the front encounters a somewhat moist and weakly unstable air mass. Forecast soundings ahead of the front during the day depict low-topped convective potential, perhaps with little if any lightning. However, given the strong linear forcing along the front and potential for mixing down of the stronger winds just off the surface, will maintain low probabilities for locally strong to severe gusts. ..Jewell/Lyons.. 02/28/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1107 PM CST Tue Feb 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF EASTERN TENNESSEE AND KENTUCKY INTO UPSTATE NEW YORK... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe gusts will be possible today from eastern Tennessee and Kentucky into the Northeast. ...Synopsis... A deep upper trough will move rapidly from the upper MS Valley across the Great Lakes through 00Z, and into New England by Thursday morning. An intense 500 mb jet of 120 kt will exist along the east side of the trough, with meridional orientation. At the surface, low pressure will continue to deepen as it moves from Lake Huron early this morning into northern Quebec by 00Z. A fast-moving cold front will extend south from the low, moving from KY and TN across the Appalachians by late afternoon. Ahead of the cold front, a narrow plume of 50s F dewpoints will extend as far north as southwest PA, with 60+ F values from TN/MS southward. Aiding moisture advection early will be 50-60 kt southwesterly 850 mb flow, but winds will quickly veer with frontal passage and drying. ...Parts of eastern TN/KY across the Appalachians into NY/southwest New England... Rain and storms are likely to be ongoing along much of the cold front early this morning, from OH into northern MS. This activity is expected to be rather disorganized, as the front encounters a somewhat moist and weakly unstable air mass. Forecast soundings ahead of the front during the day depict low-topped convective potential, perhaps with little if any lightning. However, given the strong linear forcing along the front and potential for mixing down of the stronger winds just off the surface, will maintain low probabilities for locally strong to severe gusts. ..Jewell/Lyons.. 02/28/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1107 PM CST Tue Feb 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF EASTERN TENNESSEE AND KENTUCKY INTO UPSTATE NEW YORK... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe gusts will be possible today from eastern Tennessee and Kentucky into the Northeast. ...Synopsis... A deep upper trough will move rapidly from the upper MS Valley across the Great Lakes through 00Z, and into New England by Thursday morning. An intense 500 mb jet of 120 kt will exist along the east side of the trough, with meridional orientation. At the surface, low pressure will continue to deepen as it moves from Lake Huron early this morning into northern Quebec by 00Z. A fast-moving cold front will extend south from the low, moving from KY and TN across the Appalachians by late afternoon. Ahead of the cold front, a narrow plume of 50s F dewpoints will extend as far north as southwest PA, with 60+ F values from TN/MS southward. Aiding moisture advection early will be 50-60 kt southwesterly 850 mb flow, but winds will quickly veer with frontal passage and drying. ...Parts of eastern TN/KY across the Appalachians into NY/southwest New England... Rain and storms are likely to be ongoing along much of the cold front early this morning, from OH into northern MS. This activity is expected to be rather disorganized, as the front encounters a somewhat moist and weakly unstable air mass. Forecast soundings ahead of the front during the day depict low-topped convective potential, perhaps with little if any lightning. However, given the strong linear forcing along the front and potential for mixing down of the stronger winds just off the surface, will maintain low probabilities for locally strong to severe gusts. ..Jewell/Lyons.. 02/28/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1107 PM CST Tue Feb 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF EASTERN TENNESSEE AND KENTUCKY INTO UPSTATE NEW YORK... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe gusts will be possible today from eastern Tennessee and Kentucky into the Northeast. ...Synopsis... A deep upper trough will move rapidly from the upper MS Valley across the Great Lakes through 00Z, and into New England by Thursday morning. An intense 500 mb jet of 120 kt will exist along the east side of the trough, with meridional orientation. At the surface, low pressure will continue to deepen as it moves from Lake Huron early this morning into northern Quebec by 00Z. A fast-moving cold front will extend south from the low, moving from KY and TN across the Appalachians by late afternoon. Ahead of the cold front, a narrow plume of 50s F dewpoints will extend as far north as southwest PA, with 60+ F values from TN/MS southward. Aiding moisture advection early will be 50-60 kt southwesterly 850 mb flow, but winds will quickly veer with frontal passage and drying. ...Parts of eastern TN/KY across the Appalachians into NY/southwest New England... Rain and storms are likely to be ongoing along much of the cold front early this morning, from OH into northern MS. This activity is expected to be rather disorganized, as the front encounters a somewhat moist and weakly unstable air mass. Forecast soundings ahead of the front during the day depict low-topped convective potential, perhaps with little if any lightning. However, given the strong linear forcing along the front and potential for mixing down of the stronger winds just off the surface, will maintain low probabilities for locally strong to severe gusts. ..Jewell/Lyons.. 02/28/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1107 PM CST Tue Feb 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF EASTERN TENNESSEE AND KENTUCKY INTO UPSTATE NEW YORK... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe gusts will be possible today from eastern Tennessee and Kentucky into the Northeast. ...Synopsis... A deep upper trough will move rapidly from the upper MS Valley across the Great Lakes through 00Z, and into New England by Thursday morning. An intense 500 mb jet of 120 kt will exist along the east side of the trough, with meridional orientation. At the surface, low pressure will continue to deepen as it moves from Lake Huron early this morning into northern Quebec by 00Z. A fast-moving cold front will extend south from the low, moving from KY and TN across the Appalachians by late afternoon. Ahead of the cold front, a narrow plume of 50s F dewpoints will extend as far north as southwest PA, with 60+ F values from TN/MS southward. Aiding moisture advection early will be 50-60 kt southwesterly 850 mb flow, but winds will quickly veer with frontal passage and drying. ...Parts of eastern TN/KY across the Appalachians into NY/southwest New England... Rain and storms are likely to be ongoing along much of the cold front early this morning, from OH into northern MS. This activity is expected to be rather disorganized, as the front encounters a somewhat moist and weakly unstable air mass. Forecast soundings ahead of the front during the day depict low-topped convective potential, perhaps with little if any lightning. However, given the strong linear forcing along the front and potential for mixing down of the stronger winds just off the surface, will maintain low probabilities for locally strong to severe gusts. ..Jewell/Lyons.. 02/28/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1107 PM CST Tue Feb 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF EASTERN TENNESSEE AND KENTUCKY INTO UPSTATE NEW YORK... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe gusts will be possible today from eastern Tennessee and Kentucky into the Northeast. ...Synopsis... A deep upper trough will move rapidly from the upper MS Valley across the Great Lakes through 00Z, and into New England by Thursday morning. An intense 500 mb jet of 120 kt will exist along the east side of the trough, with meridional orientation. At the surface, low pressure will continue to deepen as it moves from Lake Huron early this morning into northern Quebec by 00Z. A fast-moving cold front will extend south from the low, moving from KY and TN across the Appalachians by late afternoon. Ahead of the cold front, a narrow plume of 50s F dewpoints will extend as far north as southwest PA, with 60+ F values from TN/MS southward. Aiding moisture advection early will be 50-60 kt southwesterly 850 mb flow, but winds will quickly veer with frontal passage and drying. ...Parts of eastern TN/KY across the Appalachians into NY/southwest New England... Rain and storms are likely to be ongoing along much of the cold front early this morning, from OH into northern MS. This activity is expected to be rather disorganized, as the front encounters a somewhat moist and weakly unstable air mass. Forecast soundings ahead of the front during the day depict low-topped convective potential, perhaps with little if any lightning. However, given the strong linear forcing along the front and potential for mixing down of the stronger winds just off the surface, will maintain low probabilities for locally strong to severe gusts. ..Jewell/Lyons.. 02/28/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1107 PM CST Tue Feb 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF EASTERN TENNESSEE AND KENTUCKY INTO UPSTATE NEW YORK... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe gusts will be possible today from eastern Tennessee and Kentucky into the Northeast. ...Synopsis... A deep upper trough will move rapidly from the upper MS Valley across the Great Lakes through 00Z, and into New England by Thursday morning. An intense 500 mb jet of 120 kt will exist along the east side of the trough, with meridional orientation. At the surface, low pressure will continue to deepen as it moves from Lake Huron early this morning into northern Quebec by 00Z. A fast-moving cold front will extend south from the low, moving from KY and TN across the Appalachians by late afternoon. Ahead of the cold front, a narrow plume of 50s F dewpoints will extend as far north as southwest PA, with 60+ F values from TN/MS southward. Aiding moisture advection early will be 50-60 kt southwesterly 850 mb flow, but winds will quickly veer with frontal passage and drying. ...Parts of eastern TN/KY across the Appalachians into NY/southwest New England... Rain and storms are likely to be ongoing along much of the cold front early this morning, from OH into northern MS. This activity is expected to be rather disorganized, as the front encounters a somewhat moist and weakly unstable air mass. Forecast soundings ahead of the front during the day depict low-topped convective potential, perhaps with little if any lightning. However, given the strong linear forcing along the front and potential for mixing down of the stronger winds just off the surface, will maintain low probabilities for locally strong to severe gusts. ..Jewell/Lyons.. 02/28/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1107 PM CST Tue Feb 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF EASTERN TENNESSEE AND KENTUCKY INTO UPSTATE NEW YORK... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe gusts will be possible today from eastern Tennessee and Kentucky into the Northeast. ...Synopsis... A deep upper trough will move rapidly from the upper MS Valley across the Great Lakes through 00Z, and into New England by Thursday morning. An intense 500 mb jet of 120 kt will exist along the east side of the trough, with meridional orientation. At the surface, low pressure will continue to deepen as it moves from Lake Huron early this morning into northern Quebec by 00Z. A fast-moving cold front will extend south from the low, moving from KY and TN across the Appalachians by late afternoon. Ahead of the cold front, a narrow plume of 50s F dewpoints will extend as far north as southwest PA, with 60+ F values from TN/MS southward. Aiding moisture advection early will be 50-60 kt southwesterly 850 mb flow, but winds will quickly veer with frontal passage and drying. ...Parts of eastern TN/KY across the Appalachians into NY/southwest New England... Rain and storms are likely to be ongoing along much of the cold front early this morning, from OH into northern MS. This activity is expected to be rather disorganized, as the front encounters a somewhat moist and weakly unstable air mass. Forecast soundings ahead of the front during the day depict low-topped convective potential, perhaps with little if any lightning. However, given the strong linear forcing along the front and potential for mixing down of the stronger winds just off the surface, will maintain low probabilities for locally strong to severe gusts. ..Jewell/Lyons.. 02/28/2024 Read more