Severe Storms

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1149 PM CDT Mon Jul 21 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN NEBRASKA...SOUTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...NORTHEASTERN IOWA...SOUTHERN MINNESOTA...NORTHERN WISCONSIN...UPPER MICHIGAN... ...SUMMARY... Organizing clusters of storms posing a risk for severe wind are possible across parts of the middle Missouri Valley and Upper Midwest into adjacent portions of the Great Lakes region Wednesday through Wednesday night. ...Discussion... Models continue to indicate further suppression of the northeastern Pacific mid-level ridging, with flow becoming more zonal and progressive across the British Columbia coast into the Canadian Prairies during this period. Downstream, it still appears that mid/upper flow will continue to intensify in a belt across Ontario through Quebec, between a significant trough and cyclone slowly migrating eastward across Hudson Bay and prominent ridging initially centered over the Ohio Valley. A cold front trailing the cyclone is still likely to advance more rapidly southward across the Great Plains, to the lee of the Rockies, than across the Upper Midwest and adjacent Great Lakes region. This general evolution has been forecast for several days, but spread has been evident within and among the various model output concerning the synoptic and, particularly, sub-synoptic developments, which persists in latest model runs. Among the details which remain characterized by sizable spread, the cold frontal progression through the Great Plains/mid Missouri Valley vicinity, the strength of a short wave perturbation progressing out of the Pacific Northwest through the central Canadian/U.S. border vicinity, and weak mid/upper perturbations migrating around the southern and northwestern periphery of the interior U.S. ridge, across the Gulf coast and southern Great Plains toward upper Mississippi Valley. These and other smaller-scale perturbations, with low predictability at this time frame, will considerably impact the convective potential for Wednesday through Wednesday night. ...Mid Missouri Valley into Upper Midwest/Great Lakes... While it still appears that the southern fringe of the stronger mid/upper westerlies will not extend south of a corridor from southeastern Minnesota through northern Wisconsin and Upper Michigan, models now generally indicate a belt of moderate south-southwest flow (20-40 kt in the 850-700 mb layer) in the lower/mid-levels will develop across the central Great Plains into the Upper Midwest, ahead of the weak perturbation migrating around the western periphery of the mid-level ridge. Beneath modestly steep lapse rates, but with generally warm profiles, it now appears increasingly probable that seasonably high boundary-layer moisture content, supportive of large mixed-layer CAPE, will extend along the frontal zone from the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes as far southwest as central/northeastern Nebraska by late afternoon. Coupled with the strength of the lower/mid-tropospheric flow, it appears probable that this environment will become supportive of one or two organizing thunderstorm clusters with potential to produce swaths of strong to severe wind gusts. However, based on late model output, including available convection allowing guidance, the potential evolution Wednesday through Wednesday night remains rather uncertain at this time. ...Northern Rockies into Front Range... In the presence of steep lapse rates, moistening easterly to southeasterly near-surface flow, beneath modest westerly flow aloft, may contribute to sufficient destabilization and shear to support widely scattered strong to severe storms. This may include evolving supercells near/just east of the higher terrain late Wednesday afternoon and evening. ..Kerr.. 07/22/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Tue Jul 22 2025 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO NORTHERN MN... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected over parts of the northern Plains into the upper Mississippi Valley later today into tonight. ...Northern Plains into the Upper Great Lakes region... An active severe-weather day still appears possible across parts of the northern Plains into the upper MS Valley/Great Lakes, though considerable uncertainty remains regarding the evolution of storms through the day. One or more storm clusters and possibly a remnant MCS may be ongoing at the start of the period somewhere from eastern ND into northern MN, though guidance varies regarding the details. Any organized cluster or MCS that is ongoing may pose a threat for at least localized damaging gusts into parts of northern MN through the morning, along with some hail potential with any semi-discrete cells. A surface low is forecast to move eastward across SD through the day, downstream of a positively tilted upper-level trough over the northern Rockies. An outflow-influenced surface boundary will extend northeast from the low into parts of the eastern Dakotas and northern MN, though its placement is somewhat uncertain by afternoon. Strong instability will develop by afternoon near and south of the boundary, and also within a region of moist east/northeasterly flow north and northwest of the surface low. The strongest mid/upper-level flow will be north of the boundary, but backed low-level flow near the boundary will result in favorable deep-layer shear for organized convection. There will be some potential for supercell development near the surface low and northeastward along the boundary during the afternoon and evening, though coverage is uncertain due to rather subtle large-scale forcing. Any sustained supercells within this environment could pose some tornado threat, in addition to potential for large to very large hail and localized severe gusts. Greater tornado probabilities may be needed if confidence increases in supercell development during the afternoon and evening. Farther west, widely scattered storm development is again expected across parts of MT and northern WY, initially within the post-frontal environment. Moderate instability and favorable deep-layer shear will support a mixture of cells and clusters with hail and severe-wind potential as they move east-northeastward. With time, upscale growth will be possible, either from convection moving out of the northern High Plains, or from storms developing farther east near the surface boundary. This could result in potential for a swath of damaging winds during the evening and overnight, though the favored corridor for this potential remains uncertain at this time. ...IA into southern MN/WI... An MCV generated by the extensive MCC over the central Plains Monday evening is forecast by most 00Z guidance to move northeastward toward IA and southern MN/WI through the period. The extent of flow enhancement and storm development associated with this feature is uncertain, but it is forecast to track across a moist and unstable environment during the afternoon and evening, and could aid in the development of a few strong storms. Locally damaging gusts will be possible, and a tornado cannot be ruled out if the MCV remains somewhat vigorous. ...Parts of the Southeast... A weak cold front will move across parts of the Carolinas and Georgia today into this evening. Very rich moisture (PWs above 2 inches) will support scattered to numerous thunderstorms along/ahead of the front, and in association with the sea breeze. Strong to locally damaging gusts will be possible, mainly during the afternoon and evening. ...Southern/central Rockies/High Plains... Relatively high-based thunderstorms are again expected this afternoon and evening across parts of the central/southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains. Localized strong to severe gusts may accompany these storms, though with relatively modest buoyancy and weak deep-layer shear, the threat appears too disorganized and nebulous for probabilities at this time. ..Dean/Wendt.. 07/22/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Tue Jul 22 2025 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO NORTHERN MN... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected over parts of the northern Plains into the upper Mississippi Valley later today into tonight. ...Northern Plains into the Upper Great Lakes region... An active severe-weather day still appears possible across parts of the northern Plains into the upper MS Valley/Great Lakes, though considerable uncertainty remains regarding the evolution of storms through the day. One or more storm clusters and possibly a remnant MCS may be ongoing at the start of the period somewhere from eastern ND into northern MN, though guidance varies regarding the details. Any organized cluster or MCS that is ongoing may pose a threat for at least localized damaging gusts into parts of northern MN through the morning, along with some hail potential with any semi-discrete cells. A surface low is forecast to move eastward across SD through the day, downstream of a positively tilted upper-level trough over the northern Rockies. An outflow-influenced surface boundary will extend northeast from the low into parts of the eastern Dakotas and northern MN, though its placement is somewhat uncertain by afternoon. Strong instability will develop by afternoon near and south of the boundary, and also within a region of moist east/northeasterly flow north and northwest of the surface low. The strongest mid/upper-level flow will be north of the boundary, but backed low-level flow near the boundary will result in favorable deep-layer shear for organized convection. There will be some potential for supercell development near the surface low and northeastward along the boundary during the afternoon and evening, though coverage is uncertain due to rather subtle large-scale forcing. Any sustained supercells within this environment could pose some tornado threat, in addition to potential for large to very large hail and localized severe gusts. Greater tornado probabilities may be needed if confidence increases in supercell development during the afternoon and evening. Farther west, widely scattered storm development is again expected across parts of MT and northern WY, initially within the post-frontal environment. Moderate instability and favorable deep-layer shear will support a mixture of cells and clusters with hail and severe-wind potential as they move east-northeastward. With time, upscale growth will be possible, either from convection moving out of the northern High Plains, or from storms developing farther east near the surface boundary. This could result in potential for a swath of damaging winds during the evening and overnight, though the favored corridor for this potential remains uncertain at this time. ...IA into southern MN/WI... An MCV generated by the extensive MCC over the central Plains Monday evening is forecast by most 00Z guidance to move northeastward toward IA and southern MN/WI through the period. The extent of flow enhancement and storm development associated with this feature is uncertain, but it is forecast to track across a moist and unstable environment during the afternoon and evening, and could aid in the development of a few strong storms. Locally damaging gusts will be possible, and a tornado cannot be ruled out if the MCV remains somewhat vigorous. ...Parts of the Southeast... A weak cold front will move across parts of the Carolinas and Georgia today into this evening. Very rich moisture (PWs above 2 inches) will support scattered to numerous thunderstorms along/ahead of the front, and in association with the sea breeze. Strong to locally damaging gusts will be possible, mainly during the afternoon and evening. ...Southern/central Rockies/High Plains... Relatively high-based thunderstorms are again expected this afternoon and evening across parts of the central/southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains. Localized strong to severe gusts may accompany these storms, though with relatively modest buoyancy and weak deep-layer shear, the threat appears too disorganized and nebulous for probabilities at this time. ..Dean/Wendt.. 07/22/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Tue Jul 22 2025 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO NORTHERN MN... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected over parts of the northern Plains into the upper Mississippi Valley later today into tonight. ...Northern Plains into the Upper Great Lakes region... An active severe-weather day still appears possible across parts of the northern Plains into the upper MS Valley/Great Lakes, though considerable uncertainty remains regarding the evolution of storms through the day. One or more storm clusters and possibly a remnant MCS may be ongoing at the start of the period somewhere from eastern ND into northern MN, though guidance varies regarding the details. Any organized cluster or MCS that is ongoing may pose a threat for at least localized damaging gusts into parts of northern MN through the morning, along with some hail potential with any semi-discrete cells. A surface low is forecast to move eastward across SD through the day, downstream of a positively tilted upper-level trough over the northern Rockies. An outflow-influenced surface boundary will extend northeast from the low into parts of the eastern Dakotas and northern MN, though its placement is somewhat uncertain by afternoon. Strong instability will develop by afternoon near and south of the boundary, and also within a region of moist east/northeasterly flow north and northwest of the surface low. The strongest mid/upper-level flow will be north of the boundary, but backed low-level flow near the boundary will result in favorable deep-layer shear for organized convection. There will be some potential for supercell development near the surface low and northeastward along the boundary during the afternoon and evening, though coverage is uncertain due to rather subtle large-scale forcing. Any sustained supercells within this environment could pose some tornado threat, in addition to potential for large to very large hail and localized severe gusts. Greater tornado probabilities may be needed if confidence increases in supercell development during the afternoon and evening. Farther west, widely scattered storm development is again expected across parts of MT and northern WY, initially within the post-frontal environment. Moderate instability and favorable deep-layer shear will support a mixture of cells and clusters with hail and severe-wind potential as they move east-northeastward. With time, upscale growth will be possible, either from convection moving out of the northern High Plains, or from storms developing farther east near the surface boundary. This could result in potential for a swath of damaging winds during the evening and overnight, though the favored corridor for this potential remains uncertain at this time. ...IA into southern MN/WI... An MCV generated by the extensive MCC over the central Plains Monday evening is forecast by most 00Z guidance to move northeastward toward IA and southern MN/WI through the period. The extent of flow enhancement and storm development associated with this feature is uncertain, but it is forecast to track across a moist and unstable environment during the afternoon and evening, and could aid in the development of a few strong storms. Locally damaging gusts will be possible, and a tornado cannot be ruled out if the MCV remains somewhat vigorous. ...Parts of the Southeast... A weak cold front will move across parts of the Carolinas and Georgia today into this evening. Very rich moisture (PWs above 2 inches) will support scattered to numerous thunderstorms along/ahead of the front, and in association with the sea breeze. Strong to locally damaging gusts will be possible, mainly during the afternoon and evening. ...Southern/central Rockies/High Plains... Relatively high-based thunderstorms are again expected this afternoon and evening across parts of the central/southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains. Localized strong to severe gusts may accompany these storms, though with relatively modest buoyancy and weak deep-layer shear, the threat appears too disorganized and nebulous for probabilities at this time. ..Dean/Wendt.. 07/22/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Tue Jul 22 2025 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO NORTHERN MN... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected over parts of the northern Plains into the upper Mississippi Valley later today into tonight. ...Northern Plains into the Upper Great Lakes region... An active severe-weather day still appears possible across parts of the northern Plains into the upper MS Valley/Great Lakes, though considerable uncertainty remains regarding the evolution of storms through the day. One or more storm clusters and possibly a remnant MCS may be ongoing at the start of the period somewhere from eastern ND into northern MN, though guidance varies regarding the details. Any organized cluster or MCS that is ongoing may pose a threat for at least localized damaging gusts into parts of northern MN through the morning, along with some hail potential with any semi-discrete cells. A surface low is forecast to move eastward across SD through the day, downstream of a positively tilted upper-level trough over the northern Rockies. An outflow-influenced surface boundary will extend northeast from the low into parts of the eastern Dakotas and northern MN, though its placement is somewhat uncertain by afternoon. Strong instability will develop by afternoon near and south of the boundary, and also within a region of moist east/northeasterly flow north and northwest of the surface low. The strongest mid/upper-level flow will be north of the boundary, but backed low-level flow near the boundary will result in favorable deep-layer shear for organized convection. There will be some potential for supercell development near the surface low and northeastward along the boundary during the afternoon and evening, though coverage is uncertain due to rather subtle large-scale forcing. Any sustained supercells within this environment could pose some tornado threat, in addition to potential for large to very large hail and localized severe gusts. Greater tornado probabilities may be needed if confidence increases in supercell development during the afternoon and evening. Farther west, widely scattered storm development is again expected across parts of MT and northern WY, initially within the post-frontal environment. Moderate instability and favorable deep-layer shear will support a mixture of cells and clusters with hail and severe-wind potential as they move east-northeastward. With time, upscale growth will be possible, either from convection moving out of the northern High Plains, or from storms developing farther east near the surface boundary. This could result in potential for a swath of damaging winds during the evening and overnight, though the favored corridor for this potential remains uncertain at this time. ...IA into southern MN/WI... An MCV generated by the extensive MCC over the central Plains Monday evening is forecast by most 00Z guidance to move northeastward toward IA and southern MN/WI through the period. The extent of flow enhancement and storm development associated with this feature is uncertain, but it is forecast to track across a moist and unstable environment during the afternoon and evening, and could aid in the development of a few strong storms. Locally damaging gusts will be possible, and a tornado cannot be ruled out if the MCV remains somewhat vigorous. ...Parts of the Southeast... A weak cold front will move across parts of the Carolinas and Georgia today into this evening. Very rich moisture (PWs above 2 inches) will support scattered to numerous thunderstorms along/ahead of the front, and in association with the sea breeze. Strong to locally damaging gusts will be possible, mainly during the afternoon and evening. ...Southern/central Rockies/High Plains... Relatively high-based thunderstorms are again expected this afternoon and evening across parts of the central/southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains. Localized strong to severe gusts may accompany these storms, though with relatively modest buoyancy and weak deep-layer shear, the threat appears too disorganized and nebulous for probabilities at this time. ..Dean/Wendt.. 07/22/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Tue Jul 22 2025 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO NORTHERN MN... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected over parts of the northern Plains into the upper Mississippi Valley later today into tonight. ...Northern Plains into the Upper Great Lakes region... An active severe-weather day still appears possible across parts of the northern Plains into the upper MS Valley/Great Lakes, though considerable uncertainty remains regarding the evolution of storms through the day. One or more storm clusters and possibly a remnant MCS may be ongoing at the start of the period somewhere from eastern ND into northern MN, though guidance varies regarding the details. Any organized cluster or MCS that is ongoing may pose a threat for at least localized damaging gusts into parts of northern MN through the morning, along with some hail potential with any semi-discrete cells. A surface low is forecast to move eastward across SD through the day, downstream of a positively tilted upper-level trough over the northern Rockies. An outflow-influenced surface boundary will extend northeast from the low into parts of the eastern Dakotas and northern MN, though its placement is somewhat uncertain by afternoon. Strong instability will develop by afternoon near and south of the boundary, and also within a region of moist east/northeasterly flow north and northwest of the surface low. The strongest mid/upper-level flow will be north of the boundary, but backed low-level flow near the boundary will result in favorable deep-layer shear for organized convection. There will be some potential for supercell development near the surface low and northeastward along the boundary during the afternoon and evening, though coverage is uncertain due to rather subtle large-scale forcing. Any sustained supercells within this environment could pose some tornado threat, in addition to potential for large to very large hail and localized severe gusts. Greater tornado probabilities may be needed if confidence increases in supercell development during the afternoon and evening. Farther west, widely scattered storm development is again expected across parts of MT and northern WY, initially within the post-frontal environment. Moderate instability and favorable deep-layer shear will support a mixture of cells and clusters with hail and severe-wind potential as they move east-northeastward. With time, upscale growth will be possible, either from convection moving out of the northern High Plains, or from storms developing farther east near the surface boundary. This could result in potential for a swath of damaging winds during the evening and overnight, though the favored corridor for this potential remains uncertain at this time. ...IA into southern MN/WI... An MCV generated by the extensive MCC over the central Plains Monday evening is forecast by most 00Z guidance to move northeastward toward IA and southern MN/WI through the period. The extent of flow enhancement and storm development associated with this feature is uncertain, but it is forecast to track across a moist and unstable environment during the afternoon and evening, and could aid in the development of a few strong storms. Locally damaging gusts will be possible, and a tornado cannot be ruled out if the MCV remains somewhat vigorous. ...Parts of the Southeast... A weak cold front will move across parts of the Carolinas and Georgia today into this evening. Very rich moisture (PWs above 2 inches) will support scattered to numerous thunderstorms along/ahead of the front, and in association with the sea breeze. Strong to locally damaging gusts will be possible, mainly during the afternoon and evening. ...Southern/central Rockies/High Plains... Relatively high-based thunderstorms are again expected this afternoon and evening across parts of the central/southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains. Localized strong to severe gusts may accompany these storms, though with relatively modest buoyancy and weak deep-layer shear, the threat appears too disorganized and nebulous for probabilities at this time. ..Dean/Wendt.. 07/22/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Tue Jul 22 2025 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO NORTHERN MN... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected over parts of the northern Plains into the upper Mississippi Valley later today into tonight. ...Northern Plains into the Upper Great Lakes region... An active severe-weather day still appears possible across parts of the northern Plains into the upper MS Valley/Great Lakes, though considerable uncertainty remains regarding the evolution of storms through the day. One or more storm clusters and possibly a remnant MCS may be ongoing at the start of the period somewhere from eastern ND into northern MN, though guidance varies regarding the details. Any organized cluster or MCS that is ongoing may pose a threat for at least localized damaging gusts into parts of northern MN through the morning, along with some hail potential with any semi-discrete cells. A surface low is forecast to move eastward across SD through the day, downstream of a positively tilted upper-level trough over the northern Rockies. An outflow-influenced surface boundary will extend northeast from the low into parts of the eastern Dakotas and northern MN, though its placement is somewhat uncertain by afternoon. Strong instability will develop by afternoon near and south of the boundary, and also within a region of moist east/northeasterly flow north and northwest of the surface low. The strongest mid/upper-level flow will be north of the boundary, but backed low-level flow near the boundary will result in favorable deep-layer shear for organized convection. There will be some potential for supercell development near the surface low and northeastward along the boundary during the afternoon and evening, though coverage is uncertain due to rather subtle large-scale forcing. Any sustained supercells within this environment could pose some tornado threat, in addition to potential for large to very large hail and localized severe gusts. Greater tornado probabilities may be needed if confidence increases in supercell development during the afternoon and evening. Farther west, widely scattered storm development is again expected across parts of MT and northern WY, initially within the post-frontal environment. Moderate instability and favorable deep-layer shear will support a mixture of cells and clusters with hail and severe-wind potential as they move east-northeastward. With time, upscale growth will be possible, either from convection moving out of the northern High Plains, or from storms developing farther east near the surface boundary. This could result in potential for a swath of damaging winds during the evening and overnight, though the favored corridor for this potential remains uncertain at this time. ...IA into southern MN/WI... An MCV generated by the extensive MCC over the central Plains Monday evening is forecast by most 00Z guidance to move northeastward toward IA and southern MN/WI through the period. The extent of flow enhancement and storm development associated with this feature is uncertain, but it is forecast to track across a moist and unstable environment during the afternoon and evening, and could aid in the development of a few strong storms. Locally damaging gusts will be possible, and a tornado cannot be ruled out if the MCV remains somewhat vigorous. ...Parts of the Southeast... A weak cold front will move across parts of the Carolinas and Georgia today into this evening. Very rich moisture (PWs above 2 inches) will support scattered to numerous thunderstorms along/ahead of the front, and in association with the sea breeze. Strong to locally damaging gusts will be possible, mainly during the afternoon and evening. ...Southern/central Rockies/High Plains... Relatively high-based thunderstorms are again expected this afternoon and evening across parts of the central/southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains. Localized strong to severe gusts may accompany these storms, though with relatively modest buoyancy and weak deep-layer shear, the threat appears too disorganized and nebulous for probabilities at this time. ..Dean/Wendt.. 07/22/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Tue Jul 22 2025 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO NORTHERN MN... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected over parts of the northern Plains into the upper Mississippi Valley later today into tonight. ...Northern Plains into the Upper Great Lakes region... An active severe-weather day still appears possible across parts of the northern Plains into the upper MS Valley/Great Lakes, though considerable uncertainty remains regarding the evolution of storms through the day. One or more storm clusters and possibly a remnant MCS may be ongoing at the start of the period somewhere from eastern ND into northern MN, though guidance varies regarding the details. Any organized cluster or MCS that is ongoing may pose a threat for at least localized damaging gusts into parts of northern MN through the morning, along with some hail potential with any semi-discrete cells. A surface low is forecast to move eastward across SD through the day, downstream of a positively tilted upper-level trough over the northern Rockies. An outflow-influenced surface boundary will extend northeast from the low into parts of the eastern Dakotas and northern MN, though its placement is somewhat uncertain by afternoon. Strong instability will develop by afternoon near and south of the boundary, and also within a region of moist east/northeasterly flow north and northwest of the surface low. The strongest mid/upper-level flow will be north of the boundary, but backed low-level flow near the boundary will result in favorable deep-layer shear for organized convection. There will be some potential for supercell development near the surface low and northeastward along the boundary during the afternoon and evening, though coverage is uncertain due to rather subtle large-scale forcing. Any sustained supercells within this environment could pose some tornado threat, in addition to potential for large to very large hail and localized severe gusts. Greater tornado probabilities may be needed if confidence increases in supercell development during the afternoon and evening. Farther west, widely scattered storm development is again expected across parts of MT and northern WY, initially within the post-frontal environment. Moderate instability and favorable deep-layer shear will support a mixture of cells and clusters with hail and severe-wind potential as they move east-northeastward. With time, upscale growth will be possible, either from convection moving out of the northern High Plains, or from storms developing farther east near the surface boundary. This could result in potential for a swath of damaging winds during the evening and overnight, though the favored corridor for this potential remains uncertain at this time. ...IA into southern MN/WI... An MCV generated by the extensive MCC over the central Plains Monday evening is forecast by most 00Z guidance to move northeastward toward IA and southern MN/WI through the period. The extent of flow enhancement and storm development associated with this feature is uncertain, but it is forecast to track across a moist and unstable environment during the afternoon and evening, and could aid in the development of a few strong storms. Locally damaging gusts will be possible, and a tornado cannot be ruled out if the MCV remains somewhat vigorous. ...Parts of the Southeast... A weak cold front will move across parts of the Carolinas and Georgia today into this evening. Very rich moisture (PWs above 2 inches) will support scattered to numerous thunderstorms along/ahead of the front, and in association with the sea breeze. Strong to locally damaging gusts will be possible, mainly during the afternoon and evening. ...Southern/central Rockies/High Plains... Relatively high-based thunderstorms are again expected this afternoon and evening across parts of the central/southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains. Localized strong to severe gusts may accompany these storms, though with relatively modest buoyancy and weak deep-layer shear, the threat appears too disorganized and nebulous for probabilities at this time. ..Dean/Wendt.. 07/22/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Tue Jul 22 2025 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO NORTHERN MN... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected over parts of the northern Plains into the upper Mississippi Valley later today into tonight. ...Northern Plains into the Upper Great Lakes region... An active severe-weather day still appears possible across parts of the northern Plains into the upper MS Valley/Great Lakes, though considerable uncertainty remains regarding the evolution of storms through the day. One or more storm clusters and possibly a remnant MCS may be ongoing at the start of the period somewhere from eastern ND into northern MN, though guidance varies regarding the details. Any organized cluster or MCS that is ongoing may pose a threat for at least localized damaging gusts into parts of northern MN through the morning, along with some hail potential with any semi-discrete cells. A surface low is forecast to move eastward across SD through the day, downstream of a positively tilted upper-level trough over the northern Rockies. An outflow-influenced surface boundary will extend northeast from the low into parts of the eastern Dakotas and northern MN, though its placement is somewhat uncertain by afternoon. Strong instability will develop by afternoon near and south of the boundary, and also within a region of moist east/northeasterly flow north and northwest of the surface low. The strongest mid/upper-level flow will be north of the boundary, but backed low-level flow near the boundary will result in favorable deep-layer shear for organized convection. There will be some potential for supercell development near the surface low and northeastward along the boundary during the afternoon and evening, though coverage is uncertain due to rather subtle large-scale forcing. Any sustained supercells within this environment could pose some tornado threat, in addition to potential for large to very large hail and localized severe gusts. Greater tornado probabilities may be needed if confidence increases in supercell development during the afternoon and evening. Farther west, widely scattered storm development is again expected across parts of MT and northern WY, initially within the post-frontal environment. Moderate instability and favorable deep-layer shear will support a mixture of cells and clusters with hail and severe-wind potential as they move east-northeastward. With time, upscale growth will be possible, either from convection moving out of the northern High Plains, or from storms developing farther east near the surface boundary. This could result in potential for a swath of damaging winds during the evening and overnight, though the favored corridor for this potential remains uncertain at this time. ...IA into southern MN/WI... An MCV generated by the extensive MCC over the central Plains Monday evening is forecast by most 00Z guidance to move northeastward toward IA and southern MN/WI through the period. The extent of flow enhancement and storm development associated with this feature is uncertain, but it is forecast to track across a moist and unstable environment during the afternoon and evening, and could aid in the development of a few strong storms. Locally damaging gusts will be possible, and a tornado cannot be ruled out if the MCV remains somewhat vigorous. ...Parts of the Southeast... A weak cold front will move across parts of the Carolinas and Georgia today into this evening. Very rich moisture (PWs above 2 inches) will support scattered to numerous thunderstorms along/ahead of the front, and in association with the sea breeze. Strong to locally damaging gusts will be possible, mainly during the afternoon and evening. ...Southern/central Rockies/High Plains... Relatively high-based thunderstorms are again expected this afternoon and evening across parts of the central/southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains. Localized strong to severe gusts may accompany these storms, though with relatively modest buoyancy and weak deep-layer shear, the threat appears too disorganized and nebulous for probabilities at this time. ..Dean/Wendt.. 07/22/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Tue Jul 22 2025 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO NORTHERN MN... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected over parts of the northern Plains into the upper Mississippi Valley later today into tonight. ...Northern Plains into the Upper Great Lakes region... An active severe-weather day still appears possible across parts of the northern Plains into the upper MS Valley/Great Lakes, though considerable uncertainty remains regarding the evolution of storms through the day. One or more storm clusters and possibly a remnant MCS may be ongoing at the start of the period somewhere from eastern ND into northern MN, though guidance varies regarding the details. Any organized cluster or MCS that is ongoing may pose a threat for at least localized damaging gusts into parts of northern MN through the morning, along with some hail potential with any semi-discrete cells. A surface low is forecast to move eastward across SD through the day, downstream of a positively tilted upper-level trough over the northern Rockies. An outflow-influenced surface boundary will extend northeast from the low into parts of the eastern Dakotas and northern MN, though its placement is somewhat uncertain by afternoon. Strong instability will develop by afternoon near and south of the boundary, and also within a region of moist east/northeasterly flow north and northwest of the surface low. The strongest mid/upper-level flow will be north of the boundary, but backed low-level flow near the boundary will result in favorable deep-layer shear for organized convection. There will be some potential for supercell development near the surface low and northeastward along the boundary during the afternoon and evening, though coverage is uncertain due to rather subtle large-scale forcing. Any sustained supercells within this environment could pose some tornado threat, in addition to potential for large to very large hail and localized severe gusts. Greater tornado probabilities may be needed if confidence increases in supercell development during the afternoon and evening. Farther west, widely scattered storm development is again expected across parts of MT and northern WY, initially within the post-frontal environment. Moderate instability and favorable deep-layer shear will support a mixture of cells and clusters with hail and severe-wind potential as they move east-northeastward. With time, upscale growth will be possible, either from convection moving out of the northern High Plains, or from storms developing farther east near the surface boundary. This could result in potential for a swath of damaging winds during the evening and overnight, though the favored corridor for this potential remains uncertain at this time. ...IA into southern MN/WI... An MCV generated by the extensive MCC over the central Plains Monday evening is forecast by most 00Z guidance to move northeastward toward IA and southern MN/WI through the period. The extent of flow enhancement and storm development associated with this feature is uncertain, but it is forecast to track across a moist and unstable environment during the afternoon and evening, and could aid in the development of a few strong storms. Locally damaging gusts will be possible, and a tornado cannot be ruled out if the MCV remains somewhat vigorous. ...Parts of the Southeast... A weak cold front will move across parts of the Carolinas and Georgia today into this evening. Very rich moisture (PWs above 2 inches) will support scattered to numerous thunderstorms along/ahead of the front, and in association with the sea breeze. Strong to locally damaging gusts will be possible, mainly during the afternoon and evening. ...Southern/central Rockies/High Plains... Relatively high-based thunderstorms are again expected this afternoon and evening across parts of the central/southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains. Localized strong to severe gusts may accompany these storms, though with relatively modest buoyancy and weak deep-layer shear, the threat appears too disorganized and nebulous for probabilities at this time. ..Dean/Wendt.. 07/22/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Tue Jul 22 2025 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO NORTHERN MN... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected over parts of the northern Plains into the upper Mississippi Valley later today into tonight. ...Northern Plains into the Upper Great Lakes region... An active severe-weather day still appears possible across parts of the northern Plains into the upper MS Valley/Great Lakes, though considerable uncertainty remains regarding the evolution of storms through the day. One or more storm clusters and possibly a remnant MCS may be ongoing at the start of the period somewhere from eastern ND into northern MN, though guidance varies regarding the details. Any organized cluster or MCS that is ongoing may pose a threat for at least localized damaging gusts into parts of northern MN through the morning, along with some hail potential with any semi-discrete cells. A surface low is forecast to move eastward across SD through the day, downstream of a positively tilted upper-level trough over the northern Rockies. An outflow-influenced surface boundary will extend northeast from the low into parts of the eastern Dakotas and northern MN, though its placement is somewhat uncertain by afternoon. Strong instability will develop by afternoon near and south of the boundary, and also within a region of moist east/northeasterly flow north and northwest of the surface low. The strongest mid/upper-level flow will be north of the boundary, but backed low-level flow near the boundary will result in favorable deep-layer shear for organized convection. There will be some potential for supercell development near the surface low and northeastward along the boundary during the afternoon and evening, though coverage is uncertain due to rather subtle large-scale forcing. Any sustained supercells within this environment could pose some tornado threat, in addition to potential for large to very large hail and localized severe gusts. Greater tornado probabilities may be needed if confidence increases in supercell development during the afternoon and evening. Farther west, widely scattered storm development is again expected across parts of MT and northern WY, initially within the post-frontal environment. Moderate instability and favorable deep-layer shear will support a mixture of cells and clusters with hail and severe-wind potential as they move east-northeastward. With time, upscale growth will be possible, either from convection moving out of the northern High Plains, or from storms developing farther east near the surface boundary. This could result in potential for a swath of damaging winds during the evening and overnight, though the favored corridor for this potential remains uncertain at this time. ...IA into southern MN/WI... An MCV generated by the extensive MCC over the central Plains Monday evening is forecast by most 00Z guidance to move northeastward toward IA and southern MN/WI through the period. The extent of flow enhancement and storm development associated with this feature is uncertain, but it is forecast to track across a moist and unstable environment during the afternoon and evening, and could aid in the development of a few strong storms. Locally damaging gusts will be possible, and a tornado cannot be ruled out if the MCV remains somewhat vigorous. ...Parts of the Southeast... A weak cold front will move across parts of the Carolinas and Georgia today into this evening. Very rich moisture (PWs above 2 inches) will support scattered to numerous thunderstorms along/ahead of the front, and in association with the sea breeze. Strong to locally damaging gusts will be possible, mainly during the afternoon and evening. ...Southern/central Rockies/High Plains... Relatively high-based thunderstorms are again expected this afternoon and evening across parts of the central/southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains. Localized strong to severe gusts may accompany these storms, though with relatively modest buoyancy and weak deep-layer shear, the threat appears too disorganized and nebulous for probabilities at this time. ..Dean/Wendt.. 07/22/2025 Read more

WW 0536 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 536 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..GRAMS..07/22/25 ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS...ABR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 536 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MNC027-167-220640- MN . MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CLAY WILKIN NDC003-015-017-021-029-037-043-045-047-051-059-065-073-077-081- 085-093-220640- ND . NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARNES BURLEIGH CASS DICKEY EMMONS GRANT KIDDER LAMOURE LOGAN MCINTOSH MORTON OLIVER RANSOM RICHLAND SARGENT SIOUX STUTSMAN SDC013-021-031-041-045-049-089-091-107-129-220640- SD . SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

MD 1750 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR WEST-CENTRAL INTO CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AND FAR SOUTH-CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
Mesoscale Discussion 1750 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0910 PM CDT Mon Jul 21 2025 Areas affected...West-central into central South Dakota and far south-central North Dakota Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 220210Z - 220415Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Though uncertain, some increase in storm intensity/coverage is possible this evening. Convective trends will be monitored for a possible watch. DISCUSSION...A small cluster of storms northeast of the Black Hills has recently shown some modest intensification. Another storm has also developed east of the Black Hills. This is likely in response to a strengthening low-level jet. MLCAPE is still near or above 4000 J/kg ahead of this activity and effective shear is sufficient for organized storms. However, MLCIN is also starting to slowly increase as well. With little upper-level support, it is not clear whether storms will maintain intensity or how much coverage will increase this evening. A watch is possible, but it will depend on convective trends in intensity/upscale growth. ..Wendt/Hart.. 07/22/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...UNR... LAT...LON 45869934 45109959 44640083 44370195 44940311 45520239 46030020 45869934 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

WW 0536 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0536 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0536 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0536 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

MD 1749 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR CENTRAL/SOUTH-CENTRAL KS
Mesoscale Discussion 1749 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0739 PM CDT Mon Jul 21 2025 Areas affected...Central/South-Central KS Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 220039Z - 220245Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Threat for damaging wind gusts and isolated hail will continue across central and south-central Kansas this evening. DISCUSSION...Cluster of intense thunderstorms over north-central KS has shown a trend for more southward progression over the last 30 mins or so. The airmass across central KS remains very unstable, with recent mesoanalysis estimating MLCAPE over 3500 J/kg. Temperatures in this area remain in the mid 90s with dewpoints in the low to mid 70s. An outflow boundary is impinging on the northeastern periphery of this warm, moist, and unstable airmass. This boundary should act as an eastern bound for any additional development, likely resulting in the convective cluster continuing to a favor a most southerly motion (maybe even slightly south-southwesterly). Given the weak shear across the region, the overall southerly push within the storm cluster will likely remain dominated by downdraft surges. These storms are very tall, with tops likely in the 55 to 60 kft range. IR satellite imagery recently observed cloud top below -80 deg C. As a result, damaging downbursts will remain the primary risk, with some isolated hail as a secondary threat. Another cluster of strong to severe thunderstorms is progressing eastward across far south-central KS. This airmass downstream of these storms in similar to that over central KS, and the potential for discrete propagation is likely as the eastward-moving outflow moves into the strong buoyancy downstream. Some eventual interaction between these two clusters is possible, although confidence in the overall convective evolution is low. Convective trends are being monitored and a watch could be issued if confidence in convective evolution and severe wind coverage increases. ..Mosier/Hart.. 07/22/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...OUN...GID...DDC... LAT...LON 39449896 39099748 37459602 36919767 37079984 38570027 39449896 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

WW 0535 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 535 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 WSW RAP TO 60 ESE 4BQ TO 35 SSW 4BQ TO 60 NE BIL TO 40 SSE 3HT. ..WENDT..07/22/25 ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...BIS...UNR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 535 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MTC011-017-021-025-033-037-055-065-069-075-079-087-107-109- 220340- MT . MONTANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CARTER CUSTER DAWSON FALLON GARFIELD GOLDEN VALLEY MCCONE MUSSELSHELL PETROLEUM POWDER RIVER PRAIRIE ROSEBUD WHEATLAND WIBAUX NDC007-011-033-087-220340- ND . NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BILLINGS BOWMAN GOLDEN VALLEY SLOPE SDC019-063-093-220340- SD Read more

WW 0535 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 535 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 WSW RAP TO 60 ESE 4BQ TO 35 SSW 4BQ TO 60 NE BIL TO 40 SSE 3HT. ..WENDT..07/22/25 ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...BIS...UNR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 535 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MTC011-017-021-025-033-037-055-065-069-075-079-087-107-109- 220340- MT . MONTANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CARTER CUSTER DAWSON FALLON GARFIELD GOLDEN VALLEY MCCONE MUSSELSHELL PETROLEUM POWDER RIVER PRAIRIE ROSEBUD WHEATLAND WIBAUX NDC007-011-033-087-220340- ND . NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BILLINGS BOWMAN GOLDEN VALLEY SLOPE SDC019-063-093-220340- SD Read more

WW 0535 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 535 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 WSW RAP TO 60 ESE 4BQ TO 35 SSW 4BQ TO 60 NE BIL TO 40 SSE 3HT. ..WENDT..07/22/25 ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...BIS...UNR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 535 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MTC011-017-021-025-033-037-055-065-069-075-079-087-107-109- 220340- MT . MONTANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CARTER CUSTER DAWSON FALLON GARFIELD GOLDEN VALLEY MCCONE MUSSELSHELL PETROLEUM POWDER RIVER PRAIRIE ROSEBUD WHEATLAND WIBAUX NDC007-011-033-087-220340- ND . NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BILLINGS BOWMAN GOLDEN VALLEY SLOPE SDC019-063-093-220340- SD Read more

WW 0535 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 535 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 WSW RAP TO 60 ESE 4BQ TO 35 SSW 4BQ TO 60 NE BIL TO 40 SSE 3HT. ..WENDT..07/22/25 ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...BIS...UNR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 535 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MTC011-017-021-025-033-037-055-065-069-075-079-087-107-109- 220340- MT . MONTANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CARTER CUSTER DAWSON FALLON GARFIELD GOLDEN VALLEY MCCONE MUSSELSHELL PETROLEUM POWDER RIVER PRAIRIE ROSEBUD WHEATLAND WIBAUX NDC007-011-033-087-220340- ND . NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BILLINGS BOWMAN GOLDEN VALLEY SLOPE SDC019-063-093-220340- SD Read more