Severe Storms

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0325 AM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024 Valid 171200Z - 221200Z ...DISCUSSION... Upper troughing is expected to deepen across the eastern CONUS on D4/Sunday and D5/Monday before then gradually shifting off the East Coast by early D6/Tuesday. Another shortwave trough may progress through the OH Valley in the wake of this deep upper troughing on D6/Tuesday, but a multi-model consensus suggest any troughing will be offshore by early D7/Wednesday. Confluent flow is expected across the central CONUS by this time, with a shortwave trough likely moving across the Four Corners. This synoptic evolution is expected to bring a dry and stable airmass into much of the central and eastern CONUS from D4/Sunday through at least early D7/Wednesday. The only exception is from from south TX across the Gulf Coast and FL early D4/Sunday, where modest low-level moisture will exist in the vicinity of a weak remnant frontal zone. Some limited low-level moisture may remain over FL on D5/Monday as well. Some isolated thunderstorms are possible in these areas, but buoyancy will be limited. Dry and stable conditions are expected elsewhere across the CONUS through D6/Tuesday. Guidance suggests some moisture return may begin across the southern Plains on D7/Wednesday, but predictability is limited and the overall forecast confidence is low. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0325 AM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024 Valid 171200Z - 221200Z ...DISCUSSION... Upper troughing is expected to deepen across the eastern CONUS on D4/Sunday and D5/Monday before then gradually shifting off the East Coast by early D6/Tuesday. Another shortwave trough may progress through the OH Valley in the wake of this deep upper troughing on D6/Tuesday, but a multi-model consensus suggest any troughing will be offshore by early D7/Wednesday. Confluent flow is expected across the central CONUS by this time, with a shortwave trough likely moving across the Four Corners. This synoptic evolution is expected to bring a dry and stable airmass into much of the central and eastern CONUS from D4/Sunday through at least early D7/Wednesday. The only exception is from from south TX across the Gulf Coast and FL early D4/Sunday, where modest low-level moisture will exist in the vicinity of a weak remnant frontal zone. Some limited low-level moisture may remain over FL on D5/Monday as well. Some isolated thunderstorms are possible in these areas, but buoyancy will be limited. Dry and stable conditions are expected elsewhere across the CONUS through D6/Tuesday. Guidance suggests some moisture return may begin across the southern Plains on D7/Wednesday, but predictability is limited and the overall forecast confidence is low. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0325 AM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024 Valid 171200Z - 221200Z ...DISCUSSION... Upper troughing is expected to deepen across the eastern CONUS on D4/Sunday and D5/Monday before then gradually shifting off the East Coast by early D6/Tuesday. Another shortwave trough may progress through the OH Valley in the wake of this deep upper troughing on D6/Tuesday, but a multi-model consensus suggest any troughing will be offshore by early D7/Wednesday. Confluent flow is expected across the central CONUS by this time, with a shortwave trough likely moving across the Four Corners. This synoptic evolution is expected to bring a dry and stable airmass into much of the central and eastern CONUS from D4/Sunday through at least early D7/Wednesday. The only exception is from from south TX across the Gulf Coast and FL early D4/Sunday, where modest low-level moisture will exist in the vicinity of a weak remnant frontal zone. Some limited low-level moisture may remain over FL on D5/Monday as well. Some isolated thunderstorms are possible in these areas, but buoyancy will be limited. Dry and stable conditions are expected elsewhere across the CONUS through D6/Tuesday. Guidance suggests some moisture return may begin across the southern Plains on D7/Wednesday, but predictability is limited and the overall forecast confidence is low. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0325 AM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024 Valid 171200Z - 221200Z ...DISCUSSION... Upper troughing is expected to deepen across the eastern CONUS on D4/Sunday and D5/Monday before then gradually shifting off the East Coast by early D6/Tuesday. Another shortwave trough may progress through the OH Valley in the wake of this deep upper troughing on D6/Tuesday, but a multi-model consensus suggest any troughing will be offshore by early D7/Wednesday. Confluent flow is expected across the central CONUS by this time, with a shortwave trough likely moving across the Four Corners. This synoptic evolution is expected to bring a dry and stable airmass into much of the central and eastern CONUS from D4/Sunday through at least early D7/Wednesday. The only exception is from from south TX across the Gulf Coast and FL early D4/Sunday, where modest low-level moisture will exist in the vicinity of a weak remnant frontal zone. Some limited low-level moisture may remain over FL on D5/Monday as well. Some isolated thunderstorms are possible in these areas, but buoyancy will be limited. Dry and stable conditions are expected elsewhere across the CONUS through D6/Tuesday. Guidance suggests some moisture return may begin across the southern Plains on D7/Wednesday, but predictability is limited and the overall forecast confidence is low. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0325 AM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024 Valid 171200Z - 221200Z ...DISCUSSION... Upper troughing is expected to deepen across the eastern CONUS on D4/Sunday and D5/Monday before then gradually shifting off the East Coast by early D6/Tuesday. Another shortwave trough may progress through the OH Valley in the wake of this deep upper troughing on D6/Tuesday, but a multi-model consensus suggest any troughing will be offshore by early D7/Wednesday. Confluent flow is expected across the central CONUS by this time, with a shortwave trough likely moving across the Four Corners. This synoptic evolution is expected to bring a dry and stable airmass into much of the central and eastern CONUS from D4/Sunday through at least early D7/Wednesday. The only exception is from from south TX across the Gulf Coast and FL early D4/Sunday, where modest low-level moisture will exist in the vicinity of a weak remnant frontal zone. Some limited low-level moisture may remain over FL on D5/Monday as well. Some isolated thunderstorms are possible in these areas, but buoyancy will be limited. Dry and stable conditions are expected elsewhere across the CONUS through D6/Tuesday. Guidance suggests some moisture return may begin across the southern Plains on D7/Wednesday, but predictability is limited and the overall forecast confidence is low. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0325 AM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024 Valid 171200Z - 221200Z ...DISCUSSION... Upper troughing is expected to deepen across the eastern CONUS on D4/Sunday and D5/Monday before then gradually shifting off the East Coast by early D6/Tuesday. Another shortwave trough may progress through the OH Valley in the wake of this deep upper troughing on D6/Tuesday, but a multi-model consensus suggest any troughing will be offshore by early D7/Wednesday. Confluent flow is expected across the central CONUS by this time, with a shortwave trough likely moving across the Four Corners. This synoptic evolution is expected to bring a dry and stable airmass into much of the central and eastern CONUS from D4/Sunday through at least early D7/Wednesday. The only exception is from from south TX across the Gulf Coast and FL early D4/Sunday, where modest low-level moisture will exist in the vicinity of a weak remnant frontal zone. Some limited low-level moisture may remain over FL on D5/Monday as well. Some isolated thunderstorms are possible in these areas, but buoyancy will be limited. Dry and stable conditions are expected elsewhere across the CONUS through D6/Tuesday. Guidance suggests some moisture return may begin across the southern Plains on D7/Wednesday, but predictability is limited and the overall forecast confidence is low. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0325 AM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024 Valid 171200Z - 221200Z ...DISCUSSION... Upper troughing is expected to deepen across the eastern CONUS on D4/Sunday and D5/Monday before then gradually shifting off the East Coast by early D6/Tuesday. Another shortwave trough may progress through the OH Valley in the wake of this deep upper troughing on D6/Tuesday, but a multi-model consensus suggest any troughing will be offshore by early D7/Wednesday. Confluent flow is expected across the central CONUS by this time, with a shortwave trough likely moving across the Four Corners. This synoptic evolution is expected to bring a dry and stable airmass into much of the central and eastern CONUS from D4/Sunday through at least early D7/Wednesday. The only exception is from from south TX across the Gulf Coast and FL early D4/Sunday, where modest low-level moisture will exist in the vicinity of a weak remnant frontal zone. Some limited low-level moisture may remain over FL on D5/Monday as well. Some isolated thunderstorms are possible in these areas, but buoyancy will be limited. Dry and stable conditions are expected elsewhere across the CONUS through D6/Tuesday. Guidance suggests some moisture return may begin across the southern Plains on D7/Wednesday, but predictability is limited and the overall forecast confidence is low. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0325 AM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024 Valid 171200Z - 221200Z ...DISCUSSION... Upper troughing is expected to deepen across the eastern CONUS on D4/Sunday and D5/Monday before then gradually shifting off the East Coast by early D6/Tuesday. Another shortwave trough may progress through the OH Valley in the wake of this deep upper troughing on D6/Tuesday, but a multi-model consensus suggest any troughing will be offshore by early D7/Wednesday. Confluent flow is expected across the central CONUS by this time, with a shortwave trough likely moving across the Four Corners. This synoptic evolution is expected to bring a dry and stable airmass into much of the central and eastern CONUS from D4/Sunday through at least early D7/Wednesday. The only exception is from from south TX across the Gulf Coast and FL early D4/Sunday, where modest low-level moisture will exist in the vicinity of a weak remnant frontal zone. Some limited low-level moisture may remain over FL on D5/Monday as well. Some isolated thunderstorms are possible in these areas, but buoyancy will be limited. Dry and stable conditions are expected elsewhere across the CONUS through D6/Tuesday. Guidance suggests some moisture return may begin across the southern Plains on D7/Wednesday, but predictability is limited and the overall forecast confidence is low. Read more

MD 0226 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 38... FOR EASTERN KS INTO WESTERN/NORTHERN MO AND WEST-CENTRAL IL
Mesoscale Discussion 0226 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024 Areas affected...Eastern KS into western/northern MO and west-central IL Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 38... Valid 140730Z - 140900Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 38 continues. SUMMARY...Hail and localized severe gusts will remain possible overnight. Eventual downstream watch issuance is possible, depending on convective trends. DISCUSSION...At 0730 UTC, multiple storm clusters are ongoing from eastern KS into western/northern MO and western IL. The most vigorous ongoing cluster (based on radar and satellite trends) is located across east-central/southeast KS, where a strong mid/upper-level jet is impinging upon moderate to strong elevated buoyancy (MUCAPE of greater than 2000 J/kg). Steep midlevel lapse rates, cold temperatures aloft, and sufficient effective shear will support a hail threat with the strongest storms in this region, though a possible transition to more of a linear mode may temper hail potential to some extent. Also, despite the presence of some low-level stability, localized severe gusts will continue to be possible with this cluster, as indicated by a recent 59 mph gust near Eureka, KS. Other elevated storm clusters are ongoing in an east-west oriented band from northeast KS into northern MO. Severe gusts have recently been observed at Kirksville and Moberly, MO, and moderate elevated buoyancy will continue to support a threat of isolated hail and strong gusts as these clusters move eastward. With time, a larger QLCS could evolve and accelerate eastward, as the southeast KS cluster merges with convection and a related outflow boundary to its north and northeast. This could lead to some eventual increase in severe potential to the east of WW 38. Depending on convective trends through the overnight hours, eventual downstream watch issuance is possible. ..Dean/Edwards.. 03/14/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...DVN...SGF...EAX...TOP...ICT... LAT...LON 37029674 38059585 38999535 39919480 39869245 40519191 40839137 40879059 40778998 39958989 39489059 39199115 38829190 38269301 37569423 37279490 37239536 37079593 37029674 Read more

WW 0038 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 38 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NE PNC TO 30 W CNU TO 35 SW OJC TO 10 NW FLV TO 35 NE FNB. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0226 ..DEAN..03/14/24 ATTN...WFO...DVN...LSX...ICT...TOP...EAX...SGF... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 38 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ILC001-009-067-071-109-149-187-140940- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS BROWN HANCOCK HENDERSON MCDONOUGH PIKE WARREN IAC057-087-111-177-140940- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DES MOINES HENRY LEE VAN BUREN KSC001-011-019-037-049-091-099-103-107-121-125-133-205-207-209- 140940- KS Read more

WW 0039 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0039 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0038 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 38 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSE ICT TO 30 W CNU TO 30 S TOP TO 10 N TOP. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0226 ..DEAN..03/14/24 ATTN...WFO...DVN...LSX...ICT...TOP...EAX...SGF... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 38 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ILC001-067-071-109-187-140840- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS HANCOCK HENDERSON MCDONOUGH WARREN IAC057-087-111-177-140840- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DES MOINES HENRY LEE VAN BUREN KSC001-003-005-011-019-031-035-037-043-045-049-059-073-087-091- 099-103-107-121-125-133-139-177-205-207-209-140840- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 AM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE TEXAS HILL COUNTRY INTO SOUTH TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible from the Texas Hill Country into South Texas on Saturday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Mature southern-stream upper low is forecast to remain over the southwestern CONUS while a strong northern-stream shortwave trough matures into a mid-latitude cyclone over Ontario and the Upper Great Lakes. A reservoir of modest low-level moisture (i.e. dewpoints in the low/mid 60s) will likely be in place from south TX through the Southeast States. A weakening cold front is expected to extend from central SC west-southwestward across southern portions of the Southeast states into south TX early Saturday. Most of this front is forecast to slowly shift southward throughout the day. The only exception is across south TX, where the influence of a shortwave trough moving across central Mexico will help lower surface pressures, strengthening low-level southerly flow. As a result, this boundary is expected to sharpen and perhaps even start progressing northward/northwestward as a warm front. Dewpoints south of this front will likely be in the upper 60s. Large-scale forcing for ascent attendant to the approaching shortwave trough is expected to interact with this low-level moisture and related buoyancy overnight, supporting thunderstorms. Current guidance suggests environmental conditions will support supercells capable of large to very large hail. Even so, there is enough uncertainty regarding position of the front and influence of antecedent storms, as well as strength and timing of the shortwave, to preclude introducing any severe probabilities higher than 5% with this outlook. ..Mosier.. 03/14/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 AM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE TEXAS HILL COUNTRY INTO SOUTH TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible from the Texas Hill Country into South Texas on Saturday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Mature southern-stream upper low is forecast to remain over the southwestern CONUS while a strong northern-stream shortwave trough matures into a mid-latitude cyclone over Ontario and the Upper Great Lakes. A reservoir of modest low-level moisture (i.e. dewpoints in the low/mid 60s) will likely be in place from south TX through the Southeast States. A weakening cold front is expected to extend from central SC west-southwestward across southern portions of the Southeast states into south TX early Saturday. Most of this front is forecast to slowly shift southward throughout the day. The only exception is across south TX, where the influence of a shortwave trough moving across central Mexico will help lower surface pressures, strengthening low-level southerly flow. As a result, this boundary is expected to sharpen and perhaps even start progressing northward/northwestward as a warm front. Dewpoints south of this front will likely be in the upper 60s. Large-scale forcing for ascent attendant to the approaching shortwave trough is expected to interact with this low-level moisture and related buoyancy overnight, supporting thunderstorms. Current guidance suggests environmental conditions will support supercells capable of large to very large hail. Even so, there is enough uncertainty regarding position of the front and influence of antecedent storms, as well as strength and timing of the shortwave, to preclude introducing any severe probabilities higher than 5% with this outlook. ..Mosier.. 03/14/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 AM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE TEXAS HILL COUNTRY INTO SOUTH TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible from the Texas Hill Country into South Texas on Saturday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Mature southern-stream upper low is forecast to remain over the southwestern CONUS while a strong northern-stream shortwave trough matures into a mid-latitude cyclone over Ontario and the Upper Great Lakes. A reservoir of modest low-level moisture (i.e. dewpoints in the low/mid 60s) will likely be in place from south TX through the Southeast States. A weakening cold front is expected to extend from central SC west-southwestward across southern portions of the Southeast states into south TX early Saturday. Most of this front is forecast to slowly shift southward throughout the day. The only exception is across south TX, where the influence of a shortwave trough moving across central Mexico will help lower surface pressures, strengthening low-level southerly flow. As a result, this boundary is expected to sharpen and perhaps even start progressing northward/northwestward as a warm front. Dewpoints south of this front will likely be in the upper 60s. Large-scale forcing for ascent attendant to the approaching shortwave trough is expected to interact with this low-level moisture and related buoyancy overnight, supporting thunderstorms. Current guidance suggests environmental conditions will support supercells capable of large to very large hail. Even so, there is enough uncertainty regarding position of the front and influence of antecedent storms, as well as strength and timing of the shortwave, to preclude introducing any severe probabilities higher than 5% with this outlook. ..Mosier.. 03/14/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 AM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE TEXAS HILL COUNTRY INTO SOUTH TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible from the Texas Hill Country into South Texas on Saturday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Mature southern-stream upper low is forecast to remain over the southwestern CONUS while a strong northern-stream shortwave trough matures into a mid-latitude cyclone over Ontario and the Upper Great Lakes. A reservoir of modest low-level moisture (i.e. dewpoints in the low/mid 60s) will likely be in place from south TX through the Southeast States. A weakening cold front is expected to extend from central SC west-southwestward across southern portions of the Southeast states into south TX early Saturday. Most of this front is forecast to slowly shift southward throughout the day. The only exception is across south TX, where the influence of a shortwave trough moving across central Mexico will help lower surface pressures, strengthening low-level southerly flow. As a result, this boundary is expected to sharpen and perhaps even start progressing northward/northwestward as a warm front. Dewpoints south of this front will likely be in the upper 60s. Large-scale forcing for ascent attendant to the approaching shortwave trough is expected to interact with this low-level moisture and related buoyancy overnight, supporting thunderstorms. Current guidance suggests environmental conditions will support supercells capable of large to very large hail. Even so, there is enough uncertainty regarding position of the front and influence of antecedent storms, as well as strength and timing of the shortwave, to preclude introducing any severe probabilities higher than 5% with this outlook. ..Mosier.. 03/14/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 AM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE TEXAS HILL COUNTRY INTO SOUTH TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible from the Texas Hill Country into South Texas on Saturday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Mature southern-stream upper low is forecast to remain over the southwestern CONUS while a strong northern-stream shortwave trough matures into a mid-latitude cyclone over Ontario and the Upper Great Lakes. A reservoir of modest low-level moisture (i.e. dewpoints in the low/mid 60s) will likely be in place from south TX through the Southeast States. A weakening cold front is expected to extend from central SC west-southwestward across southern portions of the Southeast states into south TX early Saturday. Most of this front is forecast to slowly shift southward throughout the day. The only exception is across south TX, where the influence of a shortwave trough moving across central Mexico will help lower surface pressures, strengthening low-level southerly flow. As a result, this boundary is expected to sharpen and perhaps even start progressing northward/northwestward as a warm front. Dewpoints south of this front will likely be in the upper 60s. Large-scale forcing for ascent attendant to the approaching shortwave trough is expected to interact with this low-level moisture and related buoyancy overnight, supporting thunderstorms. Current guidance suggests environmental conditions will support supercells capable of large to very large hail. Even so, there is enough uncertainty regarding position of the front and influence of antecedent storms, as well as strength and timing of the shortwave, to preclude introducing any severe probabilities higher than 5% with this outlook. ..Mosier.. 03/14/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 AM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE TEXAS HILL COUNTRY INTO SOUTH TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible from the Texas Hill Country into South Texas on Saturday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Mature southern-stream upper low is forecast to remain over the southwestern CONUS while a strong northern-stream shortwave trough matures into a mid-latitude cyclone over Ontario and the Upper Great Lakes. A reservoir of modest low-level moisture (i.e. dewpoints in the low/mid 60s) will likely be in place from south TX through the Southeast States. A weakening cold front is expected to extend from central SC west-southwestward across southern portions of the Southeast states into south TX early Saturday. Most of this front is forecast to slowly shift southward throughout the day. The only exception is across south TX, where the influence of a shortwave trough moving across central Mexico will help lower surface pressures, strengthening low-level southerly flow. As a result, this boundary is expected to sharpen and perhaps even start progressing northward/northwestward as a warm front. Dewpoints south of this front will likely be in the upper 60s. Large-scale forcing for ascent attendant to the approaching shortwave trough is expected to interact with this low-level moisture and related buoyancy overnight, supporting thunderstorms. Current guidance suggests environmental conditions will support supercells capable of large to very large hail. Even so, there is enough uncertainty regarding position of the front and influence of antecedent storms, as well as strength and timing of the shortwave, to preclude introducing any severe probabilities higher than 5% with this outlook. ..Mosier.. 03/14/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 AM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE TEXAS HILL COUNTRY INTO SOUTH TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible from the Texas Hill Country into South Texas on Saturday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Mature southern-stream upper low is forecast to remain over the southwestern CONUS while a strong northern-stream shortwave trough matures into a mid-latitude cyclone over Ontario and the Upper Great Lakes. A reservoir of modest low-level moisture (i.e. dewpoints in the low/mid 60s) will likely be in place from south TX through the Southeast States. A weakening cold front is expected to extend from central SC west-southwestward across southern portions of the Southeast states into south TX early Saturday. Most of this front is forecast to slowly shift southward throughout the day. The only exception is across south TX, where the influence of a shortwave trough moving across central Mexico will help lower surface pressures, strengthening low-level southerly flow. As a result, this boundary is expected to sharpen and perhaps even start progressing northward/northwestward as a warm front. Dewpoints south of this front will likely be in the upper 60s. Large-scale forcing for ascent attendant to the approaching shortwave trough is expected to interact with this low-level moisture and related buoyancy overnight, supporting thunderstorms. Current guidance suggests environmental conditions will support supercells capable of large to very large hail. Even so, there is enough uncertainty regarding position of the front and influence of antecedent storms, as well as strength and timing of the shortwave, to preclude introducing any severe probabilities higher than 5% with this outlook. ..Mosier.. 03/14/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 AM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE TEXAS HILL COUNTRY INTO SOUTH TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible from the Texas Hill Country into South Texas on Saturday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Mature southern-stream upper low is forecast to remain over the southwestern CONUS while a strong northern-stream shortwave trough matures into a mid-latitude cyclone over Ontario and the Upper Great Lakes. A reservoir of modest low-level moisture (i.e. dewpoints in the low/mid 60s) will likely be in place from south TX through the Southeast States. A weakening cold front is expected to extend from central SC west-southwestward across southern portions of the Southeast states into south TX early Saturday. Most of this front is forecast to slowly shift southward throughout the day. The only exception is across south TX, where the influence of a shortwave trough moving across central Mexico will help lower surface pressures, strengthening low-level southerly flow. As a result, this boundary is expected to sharpen and perhaps even start progressing northward/northwestward as a warm front. Dewpoints south of this front will likely be in the upper 60s. Large-scale forcing for ascent attendant to the approaching shortwave trough is expected to interact with this low-level moisture and related buoyancy overnight, supporting thunderstorms. Current guidance suggests environmental conditions will support supercells capable of large to very large hail. Even so, there is enough uncertainty regarding position of the front and influence of antecedent storms, as well as strength and timing of the shortwave, to preclude introducing any severe probabilities higher than 5% with this outlook. ..Mosier.. 03/14/2024 Read more