Severe Storms

MD 0491 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 129... FOR PARTS OF SOUTHEAST IN...NORTHERN KY...FAR SOUTHWEST OH
Mesoscale Discussion 0491 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1108 PM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024 Areas affected...Parts of southeast IN...northern KY...far southwest OH Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 129... Valid 190408Z - 190615Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 129 continues. SUMMARY...The damaging-wind threat continues, but should become increasingly isolated with time. DISCUSSION...A well-organized QLCS is moving quickly across southern IN and northern KY late tonight, with recent observed wind gusts of 35-45 kt. While some weakening has been noted compared to earlier this evening, convection is still keeping pace with the gust front along the north-south oriented portion of the QLCS, and some damaging-wind threat will near the edge of WW 129 by 05 UTC. However, downstream instability is quite weak, and convective intensity should continue to generally weaken with time, resulting in an increasingly isolated/marginal severe threat into the early overnight hours. As a result, while local watch extension of WW 129 may need to be considered (depending on observational trends), downstream watch issuance is currently considered unlikely. ..Dean/Guyer.. 04/19/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ILN...LMK...IND... LAT...LON 39458582 39478479 39328441 38478443 37858485 37598530 37558585 37548626 37658657 38078638 38368614 38718595 39458582 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1255 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Marginally severe storms capable of strong wind gusts and hail will be possible on Saturday across parts of south-central and southeast Texas. ...South-central and Southeast Texas... A shortwave trough will move toward the southern Plains on Saturday, as zonal flow remains in place across much of the Gulf Coast region. At the surface, a quasi-stationary front is forecast to be located across south-central and southeast Texas. South of this boundary, a moist airmass will be in place with surface dewpoints in the 60s F. Surface heating will result in destabilization across this airmass during the day. As instability peaks during the afternoon, and as low-level convergence increases along and near the front, scattered thunderstorm development is expected. ECMWF forecast soundings in south-central Texas during the late afternoon suggest that MLCAPE will peak near 1200 J/kg, and that 0-6 km shear will be around 40 knots. This would be favorable for an isolated severe threat. The stronger storms could be associated with isolated damaging wind gusts and hail. However, limited large-scale ascent and poor lapse rates will likely keep any severe threat marginal. ..Broyles.. 04/19/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1255 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Marginally severe storms capable of strong wind gusts and hail will be possible on Saturday across parts of south-central and southeast Texas. ...South-central and Southeast Texas... A shortwave trough will move toward the southern Plains on Saturday, as zonal flow remains in place across much of the Gulf Coast region. At the surface, a quasi-stationary front is forecast to be located across south-central and southeast Texas. South of this boundary, a moist airmass will be in place with surface dewpoints in the 60s F. Surface heating will result in destabilization across this airmass during the day. As instability peaks during the afternoon, and as low-level convergence increases along and near the front, scattered thunderstorm development is expected. ECMWF forecast soundings in south-central Texas during the late afternoon suggest that MLCAPE will peak near 1200 J/kg, and that 0-6 km shear will be around 40 knots. This would be favorable for an isolated severe threat. The stronger storms could be associated with isolated damaging wind gusts and hail. However, limited large-scale ascent and poor lapse rates will likely keep any severe threat marginal. ..Broyles.. 04/19/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1255 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Marginally severe storms capable of strong wind gusts and hail will be possible on Saturday across parts of south-central and southeast Texas. ...South-central and Southeast Texas... A shortwave trough will move toward the southern Plains on Saturday, as zonal flow remains in place across much of the Gulf Coast region. At the surface, a quasi-stationary front is forecast to be located across south-central and southeast Texas. South of this boundary, a moist airmass will be in place with surface dewpoints in the 60s F. Surface heating will result in destabilization across this airmass during the day. As instability peaks during the afternoon, and as low-level convergence increases along and near the front, scattered thunderstorm development is expected. ECMWF forecast soundings in south-central Texas during the late afternoon suggest that MLCAPE will peak near 1200 J/kg, and that 0-6 km shear will be around 40 knots. This would be favorable for an isolated severe threat. The stronger storms could be associated with isolated damaging wind gusts and hail. However, limited large-scale ascent and poor lapse rates will likely keep any severe threat marginal. ..Broyles.. 04/19/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1255 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Marginally severe storms capable of strong wind gusts and hail will be possible on Saturday across parts of south-central and southeast Texas. ...South-central and Southeast Texas... A shortwave trough will move toward the southern Plains on Saturday, as zonal flow remains in place across much of the Gulf Coast region. At the surface, a quasi-stationary front is forecast to be located across south-central and southeast Texas. South of this boundary, a moist airmass will be in place with surface dewpoints in the 60s F. Surface heating will result in destabilization across this airmass during the day. As instability peaks during the afternoon, and as low-level convergence increases along and near the front, scattered thunderstorm development is expected. ECMWF forecast soundings in south-central Texas during the late afternoon suggest that MLCAPE will peak near 1200 J/kg, and that 0-6 km shear will be around 40 knots. This would be favorable for an isolated severe threat. The stronger storms could be associated with isolated damaging wind gusts and hail. However, limited large-scale ascent and poor lapse rates will likely keep any severe threat marginal. ..Broyles.. 04/19/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1255 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Marginally severe storms capable of strong wind gusts and hail will be possible on Saturday across parts of south-central and southeast Texas. ...South-central and Southeast Texas... A shortwave trough will move toward the southern Plains on Saturday, as zonal flow remains in place across much of the Gulf Coast region. At the surface, a quasi-stationary front is forecast to be located across south-central and southeast Texas. South of this boundary, a moist airmass will be in place with surface dewpoints in the 60s F. Surface heating will result in destabilization across this airmass during the day. As instability peaks during the afternoon, and as low-level convergence increases along and near the front, scattered thunderstorm development is expected. ECMWF forecast soundings in south-central Texas during the late afternoon suggest that MLCAPE will peak near 1200 J/kg, and that 0-6 km shear will be around 40 knots. This would be favorable for an isolated severe threat. The stronger storms could be associated with isolated damaging wind gusts and hail. However, limited large-scale ascent and poor lapse rates will likely keep any severe threat marginal. ..Broyles.. 04/19/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1255 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Marginally severe storms capable of strong wind gusts and hail will be possible on Saturday across parts of south-central and southeast Texas. ...South-central and Southeast Texas... A shortwave trough will move toward the southern Plains on Saturday, as zonal flow remains in place across much of the Gulf Coast region. At the surface, a quasi-stationary front is forecast to be located across south-central and southeast Texas. South of this boundary, a moist airmass will be in place with surface dewpoints in the 60s F. Surface heating will result in destabilization across this airmass during the day. As instability peaks during the afternoon, and as low-level convergence increases along and near the front, scattered thunderstorm development is expected. ECMWF forecast soundings in south-central Texas during the late afternoon suggest that MLCAPE will peak near 1200 J/kg, and that 0-6 km shear will be around 40 knots. This would be favorable for an isolated severe threat. The stronger storms could be associated with isolated damaging wind gusts and hail. However, limited large-scale ascent and poor lapse rates will likely keep any severe threat marginal. ..Broyles.. 04/19/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1245 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN US... ...SUMMARY... Sporadic strong to marginally severe storms are possible over parts of the Southeast later today. ...Southeast... Strong upper trough is forecast to advance from the upper MS Valley into ON/MI by the end of the period as a 500mb speed max translates from southern MN into the northern OH Valley. This evolution will necessitate substantial height falls downstream across southeastern Canada, extending into the upper OH Valley late. Southern extent of this forcing will only glance the middle Appalachians and lower latitudes will remain free of significant large-scale forcing through Saturday morning. As a result, boundary-layer heating will prove instrumental for convective development. While weak frontal convergence and topographic influences will also prove beneficial, convection is not expected to appreciably develop/intensify until surface readings approach convective temperatures. Latest model guidance suggests much of the southern Appalachians into coastal SC will warm rapidly today. Negligible inhibition will be noted across this region by early afternoon and isolated-scattered convection is expected to develop near the frontal zone, across higher elevations of the Appalachians. This activity will propagate toward the Piedmont before weakening with loss of daytime heating. ...TX... Surface front has progressed into the Arklatex, arcing across central TX into extreme northern Mexico, northwest of DRT. This boundary will likely advance farther southwest into the higher terrain of northern Mexico where it will stall along the northeast slopes of the Sierra Madre Oriental range. The primary corridor of low-level convergence will be within upslope regions of the higher terrain west of the international border. While the boundary layer east of the Sierra Madre should remain a bit stable, convection will develop across the highest slopes then propagate southeast toward the lower Rio Grande Valley. It's not entirely clear whether this activity will maintain intensity as it spreads toward TX. At this time will not introduce severe probabilities but this area may warrant a MRGL risk in later outlooks if conditions become more favorable. Farther north during the overnight hours, weak low-level warm advection will focus along a corridor from northwest TX into the Red River region. Elevated convection is expected to develop across this region as 850mb parcels are expected to be favorably moist/buoyant for thunderstorm development. Given the lack of meaningful large-scale forcing, there is some concern that updrafts may not be as robust as otherwise possible. While some hail could be generated with this activity, overall severe threat appears a bit too low to warrant severe probabilities at this time. ..Darrow/Weinman.. 04/19/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1245 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN US... ...SUMMARY... Sporadic strong to marginally severe storms are possible over parts of the Southeast later today. ...Southeast... Strong upper trough is forecast to advance from the upper MS Valley into ON/MI by the end of the period as a 500mb speed max translates from southern MN into the northern OH Valley. This evolution will necessitate substantial height falls downstream across southeastern Canada, extending into the upper OH Valley late. Southern extent of this forcing will only glance the middle Appalachians and lower latitudes will remain free of significant large-scale forcing through Saturday morning. As a result, boundary-layer heating will prove instrumental for convective development. While weak frontal convergence and topographic influences will also prove beneficial, convection is not expected to appreciably develop/intensify until surface readings approach convective temperatures. Latest model guidance suggests much of the southern Appalachians into coastal SC will warm rapidly today. Negligible inhibition will be noted across this region by early afternoon and isolated-scattered convection is expected to develop near the frontal zone, across higher elevations of the Appalachians. This activity will propagate toward the Piedmont before weakening with loss of daytime heating. ...TX... Surface front has progressed into the Arklatex, arcing across central TX into extreme northern Mexico, northwest of DRT. This boundary will likely advance farther southwest into the higher terrain of northern Mexico where it will stall along the northeast slopes of the Sierra Madre Oriental range. The primary corridor of low-level convergence will be within upslope regions of the higher terrain west of the international border. While the boundary layer east of the Sierra Madre should remain a bit stable, convection will develop across the highest slopes then propagate southeast toward the lower Rio Grande Valley. It's not entirely clear whether this activity will maintain intensity as it spreads toward TX. At this time will not introduce severe probabilities but this area may warrant a MRGL risk in later outlooks if conditions become more favorable. Farther north during the overnight hours, weak low-level warm advection will focus along a corridor from northwest TX into the Red River region. Elevated convection is expected to develop across this region as 850mb parcels are expected to be favorably moist/buoyant for thunderstorm development. Given the lack of meaningful large-scale forcing, there is some concern that updrafts may not be as robust as otherwise possible. While some hail could be generated with this activity, overall severe threat appears a bit too low to warrant severe probabilities at this time. ..Darrow/Weinman.. 04/19/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1245 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN US... ...SUMMARY... Sporadic strong to marginally severe storms are possible over parts of the Southeast later today. ...Southeast... Strong upper trough is forecast to advance from the upper MS Valley into ON/MI by the end of the period as a 500mb speed max translates from southern MN into the northern OH Valley. This evolution will necessitate substantial height falls downstream across southeastern Canada, extending into the upper OH Valley late. Southern extent of this forcing will only glance the middle Appalachians and lower latitudes will remain free of significant large-scale forcing through Saturday morning. As a result, boundary-layer heating will prove instrumental for convective development. While weak frontal convergence and topographic influences will also prove beneficial, convection is not expected to appreciably develop/intensify until surface readings approach convective temperatures. Latest model guidance suggests much of the southern Appalachians into coastal SC will warm rapidly today. Negligible inhibition will be noted across this region by early afternoon and isolated-scattered convection is expected to develop near the frontal zone, across higher elevations of the Appalachians. This activity will propagate toward the Piedmont before weakening with loss of daytime heating. ...TX... Surface front has progressed into the Arklatex, arcing across central TX into extreme northern Mexico, northwest of DRT. This boundary will likely advance farther southwest into the higher terrain of northern Mexico where it will stall along the northeast slopes of the Sierra Madre Oriental range. The primary corridor of low-level convergence will be within upslope regions of the higher terrain west of the international border. While the boundary layer east of the Sierra Madre should remain a bit stable, convection will develop across the highest slopes then propagate southeast toward the lower Rio Grande Valley. It's not entirely clear whether this activity will maintain intensity as it spreads toward TX. At this time will not introduce severe probabilities but this area may warrant a MRGL risk in later outlooks if conditions become more favorable. Farther north during the overnight hours, weak low-level warm advection will focus along a corridor from northwest TX into the Red River region. Elevated convection is expected to develop across this region as 850mb parcels are expected to be favorably moist/buoyant for thunderstorm development. Given the lack of meaningful large-scale forcing, there is some concern that updrafts may not be as robust as otherwise possible. While some hail could be generated with this activity, overall severe threat appears a bit too low to warrant severe probabilities at this time. ..Darrow/Weinman.. 04/19/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1245 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN US... ...SUMMARY... Sporadic strong to marginally severe storms are possible over parts of the Southeast later today. ...Southeast... Strong upper trough is forecast to advance from the upper MS Valley into ON/MI by the end of the period as a 500mb speed max translates from southern MN into the northern OH Valley. This evolution will necessitate substantial height falls downstream across southeastern Canada, extending into the upper OH Valley late. Southern extent of this forcing will only glance the middle Appalachians and lower latitudes will remain free of significant large-scale forcing through Saturday morning. As a result, boundary-layer heating will prove instrumental for convective development. While weak frontal convergence and topographic influences will also prove beneficial, convection is not expected to appreciably develop/intensify until surface readings approach convective temperatures. Latest model guidance suggests much of the southern Appalachians into coastal SC will warm rapidly today. Negligible inhibition will be noted across this region by early afternoon and isolated-scattered convection is expected to develop near the frontal zone, across higher elevations of the Appalachians. This activity will propagate toward the Piedmont before weakening with loss of daytime heating. ...TX... Surface front has progressed into the Arklatex, arcing across central TX into extreme northern Mexico, northwest of DRT. This boundary will likely advance farther southwest into the higher terrain of northern Mexico where it will stall along the northeast slopes of the Sierra Madre Oriental range. The primary corridor of low-level convergence will be within upslope regions of the higher terrain west of the international border. While the boundary layer east of the Sierra Madre should remain a bit stable, convection will develop across the highest slopes then propagate southeast toward the lower Rio Grande Valley. It's not entirely clear whether this activity will maintain intensity as it spreads toward TX. At this time will not introduce severe probabilities but this area may warrant a MRGL risk in later outlooks if conditions become more favorable. Farther north during the overnight hours, weak low-level warm advection will focus along a corridor from northwest TX into the Red River region. Elevated convection is expected to develop across this region as 850mb parcels are expected to be favorably moist/buoyant for thunderstorm development. Given the lack of meaningful large-scale forcing, there is some concern that updrafts may not be as robust as otherwise possible. While some hail could be generated with this activity, overall severe threat appears a bit too low to warrant severe probabilities at this time. ..Darrow/Weinman.. 04/19/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1245 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN US... ...SUMMARY... Sporadic strong to marginally severe storms are possible over parts of the Southeast later today. ...Southeast... Strong upper trough is forecast to advance from the upper MS Valley into ON/MI by the end of the period as a 500mb speed max translates from southern MN into the northern OH Valley. This evolution will necessitate substantial height falls downstream across southeastern Canada, extending into the upper OH Valley late. Southern extent of this forcing will only glance the middle Appalachians and lower latitudes will remain free of significant large-scale forcing through Saturday morning. As a result, boundary-layer heating will prove instrumental for convective development. While weak frontal convergence and topographic influences will also prove beneficial, convection is not expected to appreciably develop/intensify until surface readings approach convective temperatures. Latest model guidance suggests much of the southern Appalachians into coastal SC will warm rapidly today. Negligible inhibition will be noted across this region by early afternoon and isolated-scattered convection is expected to develop near the frontal zone, across higher elevations of the Appalachians. This activity will propagate toward the Piedmont before weakening with loss of daytime heating. ...TX... Surface front has progressed into the Arklatex, arcing across central TX into extreme northern Mexico, northwest of DRT. This boundary will likely advance farther southwest into the higher terrain of northern Mexico where it will stall along the northeast slopes of the Sierra Madre Oriental range. The primary corridor of low-level convergence will be within upslope regions of the higher terrain west of the international border. While the boundary layer east of the Sierra Madre should remain a bit stable, convection will develop across the highest slopes then propagate southeast toward the lower Rio Grande Valley. It's not entirely clear whether this activity will maintain intensity as it spreads toward TX. At this time will not introduce severe probabilities but this area may warrant a MRGL risk in later outlooks if conditions become more favorable. Farther north during the overnight hours, weak low-level warm advection will focus along a corridor from northwest TX into the Red River region. Elevated convection is expected to develop across this region as 850mb parcels are expected to be favorably moist/buoyant for thunderstorm development. Given the lack of meaningful large-scale forcing, there is some concern that updrafts may not be as robust as otherwise possible. While some hail could be generated with this activity, overall severe threat appears a bit too low to warrant severe probabilities at this time. ..Darrow/Weinman.. 04/19/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1245 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN US... ...SUMMARY... Sporadic strong to marginally severe storms are possible over parts of the Southeast later today. ...Southeast... Strong upper trough is forecast to advance from the upper MS Valley into ON/MI by the end of the period as a 500mb speed max translates from southern MN into the northern OH Valley. This evolution will necessitate substantial height falls downstream across southeastern Canada, extending into the upper OH Valley late. Southern extent of this forcing will only glance the middle Appalachians and lower latitudes will remain free of significant large-scale forcing through Saturday morning. As a result, boundary-layer heating will prove instrumental for convective development. While weak frontal convergence and topographic influences will also prove beneficial, convection is not expected to appreciably develop/intensify until surface readings approach convective temperatures. Latest model guidance suggests much of the southern Appalachians into coastal SC will warm rapidly today. Negligible inhibition will be noted across this region by early afternoon and isolated-scattered convection is expected to develop near the frontal zone, across higher elevations of the Appalachians. This activity will propagate toward the Piedmont before weakening with loss of daytime heating. ...TX... Surface front has progressed into the Arklatex, arcing across central TX into extreme northern Mexico, northwest of DRT. This boundary will likely advance farther southwest into the higher terrain of northern Mexico where it will stall along the northeast slopes of the Sierra Madre Oriental range. The primary corridor of low-level convergence will be within upslope regions of the higher terrain west of the international border. While the boundary layer east of the Sierra Madre should remain a bit stable, convection will develop across the highest slopes then propagate southeast toward the lower Rio Grande Valley. It's not entirely clear whether this activity will maintain intensity as it spreads toward TX. At this time will not introduce severe probabilities but this area may warrant a MRGL risk in later outlooks if conditions become more favorable. Farther north during the overnight hours, weak low-level warm advection will focus along a corridor from northwest TX into the Red River region. Elevated convection is expected to develop across this region as 850mb parcels are expected to be favorably moist/buoyant for thunderstorm development. Given the lack of meaningful large-scale forcing, there is some concern that updrafts may not be as robust as otherwise possible. While some hail could be generated with this activity, overall severe threat appears a bit too low to warrant severe probabilities at this time. ..Darrow/Weinman.. 04/19/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1245 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN US... ...SUMMARY... Sporadic strong to marginally severe storms are possible over parts of the Southeast later today. ...Southeast... Strong upper trough is forecast to advance from the upper MS Valley into ON/MI by the end of the period as a 500mb speed max translates from southern MN into the northern OH Valley. This evolution will necessitate substantial height falls downstream across southeastern Canada, extending into the upper OH Valley late. Southern extent of this forcing will only glance the middle Appalachians and lower latitudes will remain free of significant large-scale forcing through Saturday morning. As a result, boundary-layer heating will prove instrumental for convective development. While weak frontal convergence and topographic influences will also prove beneficial, convection is not expected to appreciably develop/intensify until surface readings approach convective temperatures. Latest model guidance suggests much of the southern Appalachians into coastal SC will warm rapidly today. Negligible inhibition will be noted across this region by early afternoon and isolated-scattered convection is expected to develop near the frontal zone, across higher elevations of the Appalachians. This activity will propagate toward the Piedmont before weakening with loss of daytime heating. ...TX... Surface front has progressed into the Arklatex, arcing across central TX into extreme northern Mexico, northwest of DRT. This boundary will likely advance farther southwest into the higher terrain of northern Mexico where it will stall along the northeast slopes of the Sierra Madre Oriental range. The primary corridor of low-level convergence will be within upslope regions of the higher terrain west of the international border. While the boundary layer east of the Sierra Madre should remain a bit stable, convection will develop across the highest slopes then propagate southeast toward the lower Rio Grande Valley. It's not entirely clear whether this activity will maintain intensity as it spreads toward TX. At this time will not introduce severe probabilities but this area may warrant a MRGL risk in later outlooks if conditions become more favorable. Farther north during the overnight hours, weak low-level warm advection will focus along a corridor from northwest TX into the Red River region. Elevated convection is expected to develop across this region as 850mb parcels are expected to be favorably moist/buoyant for thunderstorm development. Given the lack of meaningful large-scale forcing, there is some concern that updrafts may not be as robust as otherwise possible. While some hail could be generated with this activity, overall severe threat appears a bit too low to warrant severe probabilities at this time. ..Darrow/Weinman.. 04/19/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1245 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN US... ...SUMMARY... Sporadic strong to marginally severe storms are possible over parts of the Southeast later today. ...Southeast... Strong upper trough is forecast to advance from the upper MS Valley into ON/MI by the end of the period as a 500mb speed max translates from southern MN into the northern OH Valley. This evolution will necessitate substantial height falls downstream across southeastern Canada, extending into the upper OH Valley late. Southern extent of this forcing will only glance the middle Appalachians and lower latitudes will remain free of significant large-scale forcing through Saturday morning. As a result, boundary-layer heating will prove instrumental for convective development. While weak frontal convergence and topographic influences will also prove beneficial, convection is not expected to appreciably develop/intensify until surface readings approach convective temperatures. Latest model guidance suggests much of the southern Appalachians into coastal SC will warm rapidly today. Negligible inhibition will be noted across this region by early afternoon and isolated-scattered convection is expected to develop near the frontal zone, across higher elevations of the Appalachians. This activity will propagate toward the Piedmont before weakening with loss of daytime heating. ...TX... Surface front has progressed into the Arklatex, arcing across central TX into extreme northern Mexico, northwest of DRT. This boundary will likely advance farther southwest into the higher terrain of northern Mexico where it will stall along the northeast slopes of the Sierra Madre Oriental range. The primary corridor of low-level convergence will be within upslope regions of the higher terrain west of the international border. While the boundary layer east of the Sierra Madre should remain a bit stable, convection will develop across the highest slopes then propagate southeast toward the lower Rio Grande Valley. It's not entirely clear whether this activity will maintain intensity as it spreads toward TX. At this time will not introduce severe probabilities but this area may warrant a MRGL risk in later outlooks if conditions become more favorable. Farther north during the overnight hours, weak low-level warm advection will focus along a corridor from northwest TX into the Red River region. Elevated convection is expected to develop across this region as 850mb parcels are expected to be favorably moist/buoyant for thunderstorm development. Given the lack of meaningful large-scale forcing, there is some concern that updrafts may not be as robust as otherwise possible. While some hail could be generated with this activity, overall severe threat appears a bit too low to warrant severe probabilities at this time. ..Darrow/Weinman.. 04/19/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1245 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN US... ...SUMMARY... Sporadic strong to marginally severe storms are possible over parts of the Southeast later today. ...Southeast... Strong upper trough is forecast to advance from the upper MS Valley into ON/MI by the end of the period as a 500mb speed max translates from southern MN into the northern OH Valley. This evolution will necessitate substantial height falls downstream across southeastern Canada, extending into the upper OH Valley late. Southern extent of this forcing will only glance the middle Appalachians and lower latitudes will remain free of significant large-scale forcing through Saturday morning. As a result, boundary-layer heating will prove instrumental for convective development. While weak frontal convergence and topographic influences will also prove beneficial, convection is not expected to appreciably develop/intensify until surface readings approach convective temperatures. Latest model guidance suggests much of the southern Appalachians into coastal SC will warm rapidly today. Negligible inhibition will be noted across this region by early afternoon and isolated-scattered convection is expected to develop near the frontal zone, across higher elevations of the Appalachians. This activity will propagate toward the Piedmont before weakening with loss of daytime heating. ...TX... Surface front has progressed into the Arklatex, arcing across central TX into extreme northern Mexico, northwest of DRT. This boundary will likely advance farther southwest into the higher terrain of northern Mexico where it will stall along the northeast slopes of the Sierra Madre Oriental range. The primary corridor of low-level convergence will be within upslope regions of the higher terrain west of the international border. While the boundary layer east of the Sierra Madre should remain a bit stable, convection will develop across the highest slopes then propagate southeast toward the lower Rio Grande Valley. It's not entirely clear whether this activity will maintain intensity as it spreads toward TX. At this time will not introduce severe probabilities but this area may warrant a MRGL risk in later outlooks if conditions become more favorable. Farther north during the overnight hours, weak low-level warm advection will focus along a corridor from northwest TX into the Red River region. Elevated convection is expected to develop across this region as 850mb parcels are expected to be favorably moist/buoyant for thunderstorm development. Given the lack of meaningful large-scale forcing, there is some concern that updrafts may not be as robust as otherwise possible. While some hail could be generated with this activity, overall severe threat appears a bit too low to warrant severe probabilities at this time. ..Darrow/Weinman.. 04/19/2024 Read more

MD 0492 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 129...130... FOR NORTH-CENTRAL/NORTHEAST AR INTO SOUTHEAST MO...WESTERN TN...FAR WESTERN KY
Mesoscale Discussion 0492 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 PM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024 Areas affected...North-central/northeast AR into southeast MO...western TN...far western KY Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 129...130... Valid 190430Z - 190600Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 129, 130 continues. SUMMARY...A threat for isolated severe hail and wind will spread southeastward overnight. DISCUSSION...Occasionally organized convection is ongoing late tonight near a southeastward moving cold front from north-central AR into southeast MO. While the primary upper-level trough and surface low will become increasingly displaced northeast of the region, low-level south-southwesterly flow will maintain rich moisture along/ahead of the front, with MLCAPE of greater than 1000 J/kg potentially spreading from AR into western TN. Deep-layer shear will remain modestly favorable for organized storms and somewhat orthogonal to the boundary, and a transient supercell or two remains possible if deep convection can be sustained. With time, weakening ascent and increasing MLCINH with southeastward extent will eventually result in a diminishing threat, but isolated hail and damaging gusts remain possible into the early overnight hours. ..Dean.. 04/19/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LZK... LAT...LON 35499282 36299094 36738964 36938923 36798861 36518843 35998850 35628897 35059092 34829187 34849239 35079270 35429278 35499282 Read more

WW 0130 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 130 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SE RUE TO 35 N LIT TO 30 SSW PAH. ..KERR..04/19/24 ATTN...WFO...LZK...MEG... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 130 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC031-037-045-067-085-093-111-117-119-145-147-190640- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CRAIGHEAD CROSS FAULKNER JACKSON LONOKE MISSISSIPPI POINSETT PRAIRIE PULASKI WHITE WOODRUFF MOC069-155-190640- MO . MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DUNKLIN PEMISCOT TNC005-017-033-045-053-079-095-097-131-183-190640- TN . TENNESSEE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BENTON CARROLL CROCKETT Read more

WW 130 SEVERE TSTM AR MO TN 190210Z - 190700Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 130 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 910 PM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Central and Northern Arkansas Missouri Bootheel Northwest Tennessee * Effective this Thursday night and Friday morning from 910 PM until 200 AM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 65 mph possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Strong to severe thunderstorms are expected to move generally southeastward across the region, with the strongest storms capable of mostly a damaging wind and hail risk through the early overnight. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 45 statute miles north and south of a line from 45 miles south southwest of Flippin AR to 45 miles northeast of Jackson TN. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 126...WW 128...WW 129... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 55 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 30025. ...Guyer Read more

WW 0129 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 129 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NNW DYR TO 35 NNW HOP TO 25 SE OWB. ..KERR..04/19/24 ATTN...WFO...PAH...ILX...IND...LMK... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 129 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KYC031-035-047-061-075-083-085-093-105-141-143-157-177-183-213- 219-221-227-190640- KY . KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BUTLER CALLOWAY CHRISTIAN EDMONSON FULTON GRAVES GRAYSON HARDIN HICKMAN LOGAN LYON MARSHALL MUHLENBERG OHIO SIMPSON TODD TRIGG WARREN THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more