Severe Storms

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0314 PM CDT Sat Apr 20 2024 Valid 221200Z - 281200Z Multiple mid-level troughs will amplify across the eastern U.S. as an upper-level ridge builds over the Plains states through the middle of the week. Strong northwesterly downslope flow across the northern High Plains may support at least locally Elevated fire weather conditions Day 3/Monday afternoon. Thereafter, medium-range guidance agrees that a series of mid-level troughs will eject into the Plains states Days 6-8 (Thursday-Saturday), supporting multiple instances of surface-cyclone development and the eastward progression of a dryline. For each day Thursday-Saturday, critically dry and windy conditions are expected behind the dryline over the southern High Plains. 70 percent Critical probabilities have been introduced where guidance consensus and consistency is greatest in depicting overlapping favorable winds/RH to support significant wildfire-spread potential. ..Squitieri.. 04/20/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0314 PM CDT Sat Apr 20 2024 Valid 221200Z - 281200Z Multiple mid-level troughs will amplify across the eastern U.S. as an upper-level ridge builds over the Plains states through the middle of the week. Strong northwesterly downslope flow across the northern High Plains may support at least locally Elevated fire weather conditions Day 3/Monday afternoon. Thereafter, medium-range guidance agrees that a series of mid-level troughs will eject into the Plains states Days 6-8 (Thursday-Saturday), supporting multiple instances of surface-cyclone development and the eastward progression of a dryline. For each day Thursday-Saturday, critically dry and windy conditions are expected behind the dryline over the southern High Plains. 70 percent Critical probabilities have been introduced where guidance consensus and consistency is greatest in depicting overlapping favorable winds/RH to support significant wildfire-spread potential. ..Squitieri.. 04/20/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0314 PM CDT Sat Apr 20 2024 Valid 221200Z - 281200Z Multiple mid-level troughs will amplify across the eastern U.S. as an upper-level ridge builds over the Plains states through the middle of the week. Strong northwesterly downslope flow across the northern High Plains may support at least locally Elevated fire weather conditions Day 3/Monday afternoon. Thereafter, medium-range guidance agrees that a series of mid-level troughs will eject into the Plains states Days 6-8 (Thursday-Saturday), supporting multiple instances of surface-cyclone development and the eastward progression of a dryline. For each day Thursday-Saturday, critically dry and windy conditions are expected behind the dryline over the southern High Plains. 70 percent Critical probabilities have been introduced where guidance consensus and consistency is greatest in depicting overlapping favorable winds/RH to support significant wildfire-spread potential. ..Squitieri.. 04/20/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0314 PM CDT Sat Apr 20 2024 Valid 221200Z - 281200Z Multiple mid-level troughs will amplify across the eastern U.S. as an upper-level ridge builds over the Plains states through the middle of the week. Strong northwesterly downslope flow across the northern High Plains may support at least locally Elevated fire weather conditions Day 3/Monday afternoon. Thereafter, medium-range guidance agrees that a series of mid-level troughs will eject into the Plains states Days 6-8 (Thursday-Saturday), supporting multiple instances of surface-cyclone development and the eastward progression of a dryline. For each day Thursday-Saturday, critically dry and windy conditions are expected behind the dryline over the southern High Plains. 70 percent Critical probabilities have been introduced where guidance consensus and consistency is greatest in depicting overlapping favorable winds/RH to support significant wildfire-spread potential. ..Squitieri.. 04/20/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 PM CDT Sat Apr 20 2024 Valid 202000Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST...AND INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Marginally severe storms capable of strong wind gusts and hail will be possible mainly this afternoon/evening across portions of central and south Texas, and from southern Mississippi to southern North Carolina. No changed required for the 20Z update. For more information see mesoscale discussion 498, 499, 500. ..Jewell.. 04/20/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1112 AM CDT Sat Apr 20 2024/ ...Synopsis... Mid-morning radar mosaics show a broad swath of elevated convection ongoing across the southern Plains ahead of an approaching upper-level wave. While a few instances of gusty winds and/or sub-severe hail will be possible with this activity, a slightly more robust severe threat will be focused along a surface cold front recently analyzed from the southern Appalachians to southern TX. Surface high pressure is expected to build east into the Plains/MS Valley through the day, which will nudge the cold front slowly southward over the next 24 hours. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop along this boundary by mid-afternoon with a few strong/severe storms possible. ...Southern Gulf states to the Southeast... Mostly clear to partly cloud skies are noted along and ahead of the cold front from SC into southern AL/MS. Diurnal warming of a modestly moist air mass should yield MLCAPE values upwards of 1000 J/kg by early to mid-afternoon. Despite minimal inhibition, weak forcing for ascent along the front should support isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms. Storm motions largely along the boundary should support initial cells growing upscale into clusters through the afternoon/evening. While low to mid-level winds are modest, 30-40 knot flow aloft may support sufficient deep-layer shear for a few more organized cells/clusters with an attendant hail risk. Damaging outflow gusts are also possible - especially across areas where surface temperatures can warm into the mid/upper 80s by peak heating. Based on 16 UTC observations, this appears most likely to occur across parts of GA into the Carolinas. ...Southern Texas... Two clusters of thunderstorms appear possible this afternoon and evening across southern Texas. Elevated convection developing along the western fringe of the synoptic front across the Big Bend region of TX should gradually become surface-based as storms migrate east into an increasingly buoyant air mass. Thunderstorms should also be focused along a more subtle boundary noted along the TX Coastal Plain in recent surface analyses. Across both regions, sufficient deep-layer shear should be in place to support a few organized cells, but mean storm motions and deep-layer shear vectors largely along the initiating boundaries should favor convective clusters with an attendant hail/wind risk. A low-end tornado threat may materialize along the boundary along the Coastal Plain where low-level flow should remain backed to the south/southeast, yielding effective SRH values between 100-150 m2/s2. However, given the potential for upscale growth, this threat is expected to be fairly limited. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 PM CDT Sat Apr 20 2024 Valid 202000Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST...AND INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Marginally severe storms capable of strong wind gusts and hail will be possible mainly this afternoon/evening across portions of central and south Texas, and from southern Mississippi to southern North Carolina. No changed required for the 20Z update. For more information see mesoscale discussion 498, 499, 500. ..Jewell.. 04/20/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1112 AM CDT Sat Apr 20 2024/ ...Synopsis... Mid-morning radar mosaics show a broad swath of elevated convection ongoing across the southern Plains ahead of an approaching upper-level wave. While a few instances of gusty winds and/or sub-severe hail will be possible with this activity, a slightly more robust severe threat will be focused along a surface cold front recently analyzed from the southern Appalachians to southern TX. Surface high pressure is expected to build east into the Plains/MS Valley through the day, which will nudge the cold front slowly southward over the next 24 hours. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop along this boundary by mid-afternoon with a few strong/severe storms possible. ...Southern Gulf states to the Southeast... Mostly clear to partly cloud skies are noted along and ahead of the cold front from SC into southern AL/MS. Diurnal warming of a modestly moist air mass should yield MLCAPE values upwards of 1000 J/kg by early to mid-afternoon. Despite minimal inhibition, weak forcing for ascent along the front should support isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms. Storm motions largely along the boundary should support initial cells growing upscale into clusters through the afternoon/evening. While low to mid-level winds are modest, 30-40 knot flow aloft may support sufficient deep-layer shear for a few more organized cells/clusters with an attendant hail risk. Damaging outflow gusts are also possible - especially across areas where surface temperatures can warm into the mid/upper 80s by peak heating. Based on 16 UTC observations, this appears most likely to occur across parts of GA into the Carolinas. ...Southern Texas... Two clusters of thunderstorms appear possible this afternoon and evening across southern Texas. Elevated convection developing along the western fringe of the synoptic front across the Big Bend region of TX should gradually become surface-based as storms migrate east into an increasingly buoyant air mass. Thunderstorms should also be focused along a more subtle boundary noted along the TX Coastal Plain in recent surface analyses. Across both regions, sufficient deep-layer shear should be in place to support a few organized cells, but mean storm motions and deep-layer shear vectors largely along the initiating boundaries should favor convective clusters with an attendant hail/wind risk. A low-end tornado threat may materialize along the boundary along the Coastal Plain where low-level flow should remain backed to the south/southeast, yielding effective SRH values between 100-150 m2/s2. However, given the potential for upscale growth, this threat is expected to be fairly limited. Read more

No watches are valid as of Fri Apr 19 23:31:02 UTC 2024.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Fri Apr 19 23:31:02 UTC 2024.

MD 0497 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF FAR EAST-CENTRAL MS...NORTHERN/CENTRAL AL...AND NORTHERN GA
Mesoscale Discussion 0497 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0454 PM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024 Areas affected...Portions of far east-central MS...northern/central AL...and northern GA Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 192154Z - 192330Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...A couple loosely organized storms capable of marginally severe hail and locally damaging gusts are possible for the next couple hours. Watch not expected. DISCUSSION...Isolated thunderstorms are developing across portions of northern AL this afternoon, ahead of an outflow-augmented cold front draped across the region. Attempts at convective initiation are also evident over far east-central MS and northern GA. Antecedent heating/destabilization of a moist boundary layer (upper 60s/lower 70s dewpoints) has yielded moderate surface-based instability ahead of the front. This may support a couple loosely organized multicells and transient supercell structures, given 30-35 kt of effective shear -- characterized by a mostly straight hodograph (with weak low-level shear). Therefore, marginally severe hail (near 1 inch in diameter) and locally damaging gusts cannot be ruled out with any robust/sustained cores during the next couple hours, before the onset of nocturnal cooling/stabilization. Weak synoptic and mesoscale ascent should keep the severe risk localized, and a watch is not expected. ..Weinman/Guyer.. 04/19/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...GSP...FFC...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN... LAT...LON 33938810 34738544 34948442 34928373 34698342 34288342 33948386 33478492 32958697 32778803 32878856 33118886 33458893 33698866 33938810 Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook RESENT 3 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0548 PM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024 Valid 211200Z - 271200Z An upper-level ridging pattern will persist across the western half of the CONUS through at least Day 6/Wednesday, as multiple mid-level troughs amplify while traversing the CONUS east of the Mississippi River. Medium-range guidance members depict an appreciable chance for accumulating rainfall from portions of the southern Plains to the East Coast, which in combination with moist low-level conditions, should limit significant wildfire-spread concerns. By Days 7-8 (next Thursday-Friday), medium-range guidance shows a mid-level trough amplifying over the Rockies, encouraging surface cyclone development along the High Plains. A dryline should become established across western Kansas into western Texas each afternoon, with Elevated to Critically dry and windy conditions likely behind the dryline. However, appreciable rainfall accumulations may occur within the next few days over these same areas. Since the impacts of rainfall upon available fuels is not yet understood, higher Critical probabilities have been withheld this outlook. ..Squitieri.. 04/19/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook RESENT 3 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0548 PM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024 Valid 211200Z - 271200Z An upper-level ridging pattern will persist across the western half of the CONUS through at least Day 6/Wednesday, as multiple mid-level troughs amplify while traversing the CONUS east of the Mississippi River. Medium-range guidance members depict an appreciable chance for accumulating rainfall from portions of the southern Plains to the East Coast, which in combination with moist low-level conditions, should limit significant wildfire-spread concerns. By Days 7-8 (next Thursday-Friday), medium-range guidance shows a mid-level trough amplifying over the Rockies, encouraging surface cyclone development along the High Plains. A dryline should become established across western Kansas into western Texas each afternoon, with Elevated to Critically dry and windy conditions likely behind the dryline. However, appreciable rainfall accumulations may occur within the next few days over these same areas. Since the impacts of rainfall upon available fuels is not yet understood, higher Critical probabilities have been withheld this outlook. ..Squitieri.. 04/19/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook RESENT 3 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0548 PM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024 Valid 211200Z - 271200Z An upper-level ridging pattern will persist across the western half of the CONUS through at least Day 6/Wednesday, as multiple mid-level troughs amplify while traversing the CONUS east of the Mississippi River. Medium-range guidance members depict an appreciable chance for accumulating rainfall from portions of the southern Plains to the East Coast, which in combination with moist low-level conditions, should limit significant wildfire-spread concerns. By Days 7-8 (next Thursday-Friday), medium-range guidance shows a mid-level trough amplifying over the Rockies, encouraging surface cyclone development along the High Plains. A dryline should become established across western Kansas into western Texas each afternoon, with Elevated to Critically dry and windy conditions likely behind the dryline. However, appreciable rainfall accumulations may occur within the next few days over these same areas. Since the impacts of rainfall upon available fuels is not yet understood, higher Critical probabilities have been withheld this outlook. ..Squitieri.. 04/19/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 PM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024 Valid 192000Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Sporadic strong to marginally severe storms are possible over parts of the Southeast this afternoon into the early evening. Little change made to the outlook at 20Z. ...Southeast... Strong heating continues well ahead of the cold front, beneath modest west/northwest flow aloft. Midlevel lapse rates are poor, but sufficient instability coupled with the heated boundary layer and sufficient flow should support a few storms capable of damaging gusts or marginal hail with the more robust cells. Convergence near a weak low and a zone of mid 60s F dewpoints over central NC/eastern SC may yield the strongest cells. See mesoscale discussion 494 for more details. ..Jewell.. 04/19/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1126 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024/ ...Southeast this afternoon/evening... Late morning water-vapor imagery shows a mid-level shortwave trough moving east across the southern Appalachians. This feature will reach the VA/NC coast early tonight. Farther northwest, a closed midlevel low will evolve into an open wave as it moves eastward over the Great Lakes and OH Valley. An associated surface cold front will continue to move slowly southeastward from TX to the southern Appalachians. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms will be possible with the disturbance over the Carolinas this afternoon. Other than the front pushing into portions of AL/GA, little larger-scale forcing for ascent is expected farther southwest. Additional storm development will be associated with the front and orographic lift along the spine of the Appalachians. Overall weak-moderate buoyancy, modest deep-layer shear and steepening low-level lapse rates will support some potential semi-organized storms capable of producing isolated wind damage and marginally severe hail for a few hours this afternoon/evening. ...TX through tonight... --No change needed to previous forecast discussion-- Weak upslope flow along a slow moving cold front will favor thunderstorm development over the east slopes of the Sierra Madre Oriental/Sierra del Burro this afternoon, with the potential for a couple of supercells. However, it is not clear that storm motions will bring the convection across the Rio Grande, and lingering convective inhibition suggests storms will likely weaken if they manage to cross the border. Later tonight in northwest TX, elevated convection will likely develop atop the frontal surface, in a warm advection regime downstream from a weak shortwave trough over AZ/NM. Some small hail may occur given lingering steep midlevel lapse rates and modest cloud-layer shear, but the potential for severe hail appears too low to warrant an outlook area. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 PM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024 Valid 192000Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Sporadic strong to marginally severe storms are possible over parts of the Southeast this afternoon into the early evening. Little change made to the outlook at 20Z. ...Southeast... Strong heating continues well ahead of the cold front, beneath modest west/northwest flow aloft. Midlevel lapse rates are poor, but sufficient instability coupled with the heated boundary layer and sufficient flow should support a few storms capable of damaging gusts or marginal hail with the more robust cells. Convergence near a weak low and a zone of mid 60s F dewpoints over central NC/eastern SC may yield the strongest cells. See mesoscale discussion 494 for more details. ..Jewell.. 04/19/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1126 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024/ ...Southeast this afternoon/evening... Late morning water-vapor imagery shows a mid-level shortwave trough moving east across the southern Appalachians. This feature will reach the VA/NC coast early tonight. Farther northwest, a closed midlevel low will evolve into an open wave as it moves eastward over the Great Lakes and OH Valley. An associated surface cold front will continue to move slowly southeastward from TX to the southern Appalachians. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms will be possible with the disturbance over the Carolinas this afternoon. Other than the front pushing into portions of AL/GA, little larger-scale forcing for ascent is expected farther southwest. Additional storm development will be associated with the front and orographic lift along the spine of the Appalachians. Overall weak-moderate buoyancy, modest deep-layer shear and steepening low-level lapse rates will support some potential semi-organized storms capable of producing isolated wind damage and marginally severe hail for a few hours this afternoon/evening. ...TX through tonight... --No change needed to previous forecast discussion-- Weak upslope flow along a slow moving cold front will favor thunderstorm development over the east slopes of the Sierra Madre Oriental/Sierra del Burro this afternoon, with the potential for a couple of supercells. However, it is not clear that storm motions will bring the convection across the Rio Grande, and lingering convective inhibition suggests storms will likely weaken if they manage to cross the border. Later tonight in northwest TX, elevated convection will likely develop atop the frontal surface, in a warm advection regime downstream from a weak shortwave trough over AZ/NM. Some small hail may occur given lingering steep midlevel lapse rates and modest cloud-layer shear, but the potential for severe hail appears too low to warrant an outlook area. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 PM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024 Valid 192000Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Sporadic strong to marginally severe storms are possible over parts of the Southeast this afternoon into the early evening. Little change made to the outlook at 20Z. ...Southeast... Strong heating continues well ahead of the cold front, beneath modest west/northwest flow aloft. Midlevel lapse rates are poor, but sufficient instability coupled with the heated boundary layer and sufficient flow should support a few storms capable of damaging gusts or marginal hail with the more robust cells. Convergence near a weak low and a zone of mid 60s F dewpoints over central NC/eastern SC may yield the strongest cells. See mesoscale discussion 494 for more details. ..Jewell.. 04/19/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1126 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024/ ...Southeast this afternoon/evening... Late morning water-vapor imagery shows a mid-level shortwave trough moving east across the southern Appalachians. This feature will reach the VA/NC coast early tonight. Farther northwest, a closed midlevel low will evolve into an open wave as it moves eastward over the Great Lakes and OH Valley. An associated surface cold front will continue to move slowly southeastward from TX to the southern Appalachians. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms will be possible with the disturbance over the Carolinas this afternoon. Other than the front pushing into portions of AL/GA, little larger-scale forcing for ascent is expected farther southwest. Additional storm development will be associated with the front and orographic lift along the spine of the Appalachians. Overall weak-moderate buoyancy, modest deep-layer shear and steepening low-level lapse rates will support some potential semi-organized storms capable of producing isolated wind damage and marginally severe hail for a few hours this afternoon/evening. ...TX through tonight... --No change needed to previous forecast discussion-- Weak upslope flow along a slow moving cold front will favor thunderstorm development over the east slopes of the Sierra Madre Oriental/Sierra del Burro this afternoon, with the potential for a couple of supercells. However, it is not clear that storm motions will bring the convection across the Rio Grande, and lingering convective inhibition suggests storms will likely weaken if they manage to cross the border. Later tonight in northwest TX, elevated convection will likely develop atop the frontal surface, in a warm advection regime downstream from a weak shortwave trough over AZ/NM. Some small hail may occur given lingering steep midlevel lapse rates and modest cloud-layer shear, but the potential for severe hail appears too low to warrant an outlook area. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 PM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024 Valid 192000Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Sporadic strong to marginally severe storms are possible over parts of the Southeast this afternoon into the early evening. Little change made to the outlook at 20Z. ...Southeast... Strong heating continues well ahead of the cold front, beneath modest west/northwest flow aloft. Midlevel lapse rates are poor, but sufficient instability coupled with the heated boundary layer and sufficient flow should support a few storms capable of damaging gusts or marginal hail with the more robust cells. Convergence near a weak low and a zone of mid 60s F dewpoints over central NC/eastern SC may yield the strongest cells. See mesoscale discussion 494 for more details. ..Jewell.. 04/19/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1126 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024/ ...Southeast this afternoon/evening... Late morning water-vapor imagery shows a mid-level shortwave trough moving east across the southern Appalachians. This feature will reach the VA/NC coast early tonight. Farther northwest, a closed midlevel low will evolve into an open wave as it moves eastward over the Great Lakes and OH Valley. An associated surface cold front will continue to move slowly southeastward from TX to the southern Appalachians. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms will be possible with the disturbance over the Carolinas this afternoon. Other than the front pushing into portions of AL/GA, little larger-scale forcing for ascent is expected farther southwest. Additional storm development will be associated with the front and orographic lift along the spine of the Appalachians. Overall weak-moderate buoyancy, modest deep-layer shear and steepening low-level lapse rates will support some potential semi-organized storms capable of producing isolated wind damage and marginally severe hail for a few hours this afternoon/evening. ...TX through tonight... --No change needed to previous forecast discussion-- Weak upslope flow along a slow moving cold front will favor thunderstorm development over the east slopes of the Sierra Madre Oriental/Sierra del Burro this afternoon, with the potential for a couple of supercells. However, it is not clear that storm motions will bring the convection across the Rio Grande, and lingering convective inhibition suggests storms will likely weaken if they manage to cross the border. Later tonight in northwest TX, elevated convection will likely develop atop the frontal surface, in a warm advection regime downstream from a weak shortwave trough over AZ/NM. Some small hail may occur given lingering steep midlevel lapse rates and modest cloud-layer shear, but the potential for severe hail appears too low to warrant an outlook area. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 PM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024 Valid 192000Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Sporadic strong to marginally severe storms are possible over parts of the Southeast this afternoon into the early evening. Little change made to the outlook at 20Z. ...Southeast... Strong heating continues well ahead of the cold front, beneath modest west/northwest flow aloft. Midlevel lapse rates are poor, but sufficient instability coupled with the heated boundary layer and sufficient flow should support a few storms capable of damaging gusts or marginal hail with the more robust cells. Convergence near a weak low and a zone of mid 60s F dewpoints over central NC/eastern SC may yield the strongest cells. See mesoscale discussion 494 for more details. ..Jewell.. 04/19/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1126 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024/ ...Southeast this afternoon/evening... Late morning water-vapor imagery shows a mid-level shortwave trough moving east across the southern Appalachians. This feature will reach the VA/NC coast early tonight. Farther northwest, a closed midlevel low will evolve into an open wave as it moves eastward over the Great Lakes and OH Valley. An associated surface cold front will continue to move slowly southeastward from TX to the southern Appalachians. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms will be possible with the disturbance over the Carolinas this afternoon. Other than the front pushing into portions of AL/GA, little larger-scale forcing for ascent is expected farther southwest. Additional storm development will be associated with the front and orographic lift along the spine of the Appalachians. Overall weak-moderate buoyancy, modest deep-layer shear and steepening low-level lapse rates will support some potential semi-organized storms capable of producing isolated wind damage and marginally severe hail for a few hours this afternoon/evening. ...TX through tonight... --No change needed to previous forecast discussion-- Weak upslope flow along a slow moving cold front will favor thunderstorm development over the east slopes of the Sierra Madre Oriental/Sierra del Burro this afternoon, with the potential for a couple of supercells. However, it is not clear that storm motions will bring the convection across the Rio Grande, and lingering convective inhibition suggests storms will likely weaken if they manage to cross the border. Later tonight in northwest TX, elevated convection will likely develop atop the frontal surface, in a warm advection regime downstream from a weak shortwave trough over AZ/NM. Some small hail may occur given lingering steep midlevel lapse rates and modest cloud-layer shear, but the potential for severe hail appears too low to warrant an outlook area. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 PM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024 Valid 192000Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Sporadic strong to marginally severe storms are possible over parts of the Southeast this afternoon into the early evening. Little change made to the outlook at 20Z. ...Southeast... Strong heating continues well ahead of the cold front, beneath modest west/northwest flow aloft. Midlevel lapse rates are poor, but sufficient instability coupled with the heated boundary layer and sufficient flow should support a few storms capable of damaging gusts or marginal hail with the more robust cells. Convergence near a weak low and a zone of mid 60s F dewpoints over central NC/eastern SC may yield the strongest cells. See mesoscale discussion 494 for more details. ..Jewell.. 04/19/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1126 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024/ ...Southeast this afternoon/evening... Late morning water-vapor imagery shows a mid-level shortwave trough moving east across the southern Appalachians. This feature will reach the VA/NC coast early tonight. Farther northwest, a closed midlevel low will evolve into an open wave as it moves eastward over the Great Lakes and OH Valley. An associated surface cold front will continue to move slowly southeastward from TX to the southern Appalachians. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms will be possible with the disturbance over the Carolinas this afternoon. Other than the front pushing into portions of AL/GA, little larger-scale forcing for ascent is expected farther southwest. Additional storm development will be associated with the front and orographic lift along the spine of the Appalachians. Overall weak-moderate buoyancy, modest deep-layer shear and steepening low-level lapse rates will support some potential semi-organized storms capable of producing isolated wind damage and marginally severe hail for a few hours this afternoon/evening. ...TX through tonight... --No change needed to previous forecast discussion-- Weak upslope flow along a slow moving cold front will favor thunderstorm development over the east slopes of the Sierra Madre Oriental/Sierra del Burro this afternoon, with the potential for a couple of supercells. However, it is not clear that storm motions will bring the convection across the Rio Grande, and lingering convective inhibition suggests storms will likely weaken if they manage to cross the border. Later tonight in northwest TX, elevated convection will likely develop atop the frontal surface, in a warm advection regime downstream from a weak shortwave trough over AZ/NM. Some small hail may occur given lingering steep midlevel lapse rates and modest cloud-layer shear, but the potential for severe hail appears too low to warrant an outlook area. Read more

MD 0494 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC
Mesoscale Discussion 0494 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0133 PM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024 Areas affected...portions of the Tennessee Valley into the Mid-Atlantic Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 191833Z - 192030Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorm development is anticipated in the next couple of hours across parts of the southern Appalachians. These storms should gradually intensify through the mid/late afternoon, and may pose a severe hail/wind threat across parts of far eastern Tennessee and adjacent portions of Virginia and the Carolinas. The coverage of strong/severe storms should be sufficiently limited to preclude watch issuance. DISCUSSION...A gradually deepening cumulus field has been tracked in GOES visible/IR imagery and regional radars over the past 60 minutes. Lingering inhibition has precluded deeper convection so far, but continued daytime heating along with combined forcing for ascent along an approaching cold front and orographic lift within the southern Appalachians should foster more robust thunderstorms in the coming hours. Despite weak low-level winds, 30-40 knot flow aloft is supporting effective bulk shear values near 30-35 knots, which should be sufficient for some organization of deeper cells that may pose a large hail risk (most likely between 0.75 to 1.25 inch in diameter). Additionally, heating of a somewhat dry air mass downstream across the Carolinas (where temperatures are climbing into the low 80s under clearing skies) should steepen low-level lapse rates by late afternoon to around 8 C/km. This may favor outflow-driven storms with a tendency for upscale growth into clusters and the potential for strong to severe gusts. ..Moore/Smith.. 04/19/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...RAH...RNK...RLX...CAE...GSP...MRX...FFC... LAT...LON 36658012 36187981 35217999 34728071 34498146 34518259 34618339 34908423 35268452 35668427 36978244 37068172 36968086 36658012 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0210 PM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains unchanged. ..Squitieri.. 04/19/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0124 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024/ ...Synopsis... An expansive post-frontal air mass, characterized by cool surface temperatures and weak surface winds, will encompass much of the central and eastern CONUS, limiting fire-weather concerns. Dry conditions will persist over the Southwest, though weak surface winds and marginal fuels will also limit fire-weather potential here. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more