Severe Storms

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0753 AM CDT Fri Jul 25 2025 Valid 251300Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR MUCH OF NORTH DAKOTA...AND FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND INTO THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC REGION... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms will pose a risk of damaging wind gusts across parts of New England and the northern Mid Atlantic later today. Severe storms will also be possible across much of North Dakota. ...Northeast States... Morning water vapor imagery shows a fast-moving shortwave trough progressing eastward across Ontario. The associated cold front will move through the St Lawrence Valley this morning and southward across New England this afternoon. Relatively hot/humid conditions ahead of the front will lead to widely scattered afternoon thunderstorms across southern New England and eastern NY/PA. These storms will track southeastward toward the coast through the early evening. Coverage of intense storms is uncertain, but conditions will be favorable for gusty/damaging winds in the cells that form. ...Northern Plains... An upper ridge remains centered over the central Plains, with a weak southern-stream trough currently moving across UT into WY. Weak lift and increased mid-level moisture ahead of the system will aid in the development of scattered thunderstorms by late afternoon across parts of eastern MT/northeast WY. Thermodynamic parameters appear favorable for large hail in the stronger cells. Model guidance varies on handling this activity as it spreads eastward. However, it appears reasonable that portions of this early activity will persist through the evening and pose a risk of hail and locally damaging winds across parts of ND. Later CAM solutions will hopefully help better focus this threat area. ...KS/MO... A large area of overnight convection has resulted in a convectively-aided shortwave trough that will move into eastern KS this afternoon. Thunderstorms will likely re-develop near/east of the remnant MCV and track into western MO during the evening. Assuming sufficient heating can occur this afternoon along the southeastern edge of the remnant clouds, a corridor of MRGL severe threat will likely develop. Isolated damaging wind gusts would be the main concern. ..Hart/Grams.. 07/25/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0753 AM CDT Fri Jul 25 2025 Valid 251300Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR MUCH OF NORTH DAKOTA...AND FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND INTO THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC REGION... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms will pose a risk of damaging wind gusts across parts of New England and the northern Mid Atlantic later today. Severe storms will also be possible across much of North Dakota. ...Northeast States... Morning water vapor imagery shows a fast-moving shortwave trough progressing eastward across Ontario. The associated cold front will move through the St Lawrence Valley this morning and southward across New England this afternoon. Relatively hot/humid conditions ahead of the front will lead to widely scattered afternoon thunderstorms across southern New England and eastern NY/PA. These storms will track southeastward toward the coast through the early evening. Coverage of intense storms is uncertain, but conditions will be favorable for gusty/damaging winds in the cells that form. ...Northern Plains... An upper ridge remains centered over the central Plains, with a weak southern-stream trough currently moving across UT into WY. Weak lift and increased mid-level moisture ahead of the system will aid in the development of scattered thunderstorms by late afternoon across parts of eastern MT/northeast WY. Thermodynamic parameters appear favorable for large hail in the stronger cells. Model guidance varies on handling this activity as it spreads eastward. However, it appears reasonable that portions of this early activity will persist through the evening and pose a risk of hail and locally damaging winds across parts of ND. Later CAM solutions will hopefully help better focus this threat area. ...KS/MO... A large area of overnight convection has resulted in a convectively-aided shortwave trough that will move into eastern KS this afternoon. Thunderstorms will likely re-develop near/east of the remnant MCV and track into western MO during the evening. Assuming sufficient heating can occur this afternoon along the southeastern edge of the remnant clouds, a corridor of MRGL severe threat will likely develop. Isolated damaging wind gusts would be the main concern. ..Hart/Grams.. 07/25/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0753 AM CDT Fri Jul 25 2025 Valid 251300Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR MUCH OF NORTH DAKOTA...AND FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND INTO THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC REGION... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms will pose a risk of damaging wind gusts across parts of New England and the northern Mid Atlantic later today. Severe storms will also be possible across much of North Dakota. ...Northeast States... Morning water vapor imagery shows a fast-moving shortwave trough progressing eastward across Ontario. The associated cold front will move through the St Lawrence Valley this morning and southward across New England this afternoon. Relatively hot/humid conditions ahead of the front will lead to widely scattered afternoon thunderstorms across southern New England and eastern NY/PA. These storms will track southeastward toward the coast through the early evening. Coverage of intense storms is uncertain, but conditions will be favorable for gusty/damaging winds in the cells that form. ...Northern Plains... An upper ridge remains centered over the central Plains, with a weak southern-stream trough currently moving across UT into WY. Weak lift and increased mid-level moisture ahead of the system will aid in the development of scattered thunderstorms by late afternoon across parts of eastern MT/northeast WY. Thermodynamic parameters appear favorable for large hail in the stronger cells. Model guidance varies on handling this activity as it spreads eastward. However, it appears reasonable that portions of this early activity will persist through the evening and pose a risk of hail and locally damaging winds across parts of ND. Later CAM solutions will hopefully help better focus this threat area. ...KS/MO... A large area of overnight convection has resulted in a convectively-aided shortwave trough that will move into eastern KS this afternoon. Thunderstorms will likely re-develop near/east of the remnant MCV and track into western MO during the evening. Assuming sufficient heating can occur this afternoon along the southeastern edge of the remnant clouds, a corridor of MRGL severe threat will likely develop. Isolated damaging wind gusts would be the main concern. ..Hart/Grams.. 07/25/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0753 AM CDT Fri Jul 25 2025 Valid 251300Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR MUCH OF NORTH DAKOTA...AND FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND INTO THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC REGION... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms will pose a risk of damaging wind gusts across parts of New England and the northern Mid Atlantic later today. Severe storms will also be possible across much of North Dakota. ...Northeast States... Morning water vapor imagery shows a fast-moving shortwave trough progressing eastward across Ontario. The associated cold front will move through the St Lawrence Valley this morning and southward across New England this afternoon. Relatively hot/humid conditions ahead of the front will lead to widely scattered afternoon thunderstorms across southern New England and eastern NY/PA. These storms will track southeastward toward the coast through the early evening. Coverage of intense storms is uncertain, but conditions will be favorable for gusty/damaging winds in the cells that form. ...Northern Plains... An upper ridge remains centered over the central Plains, with a weak southern-stream trough currently moving across UT into WY. Weak lift and increased mid-level moisture ahead of the system will aid in the development of scattered thunderstorms by late afternoon across parts of eastern MT/northeast WY. Thermodynamic parameters appear favorable for large hail in the stronger cells. Model guidance varies on handling this activity as it spreads eastward. However, it appears reasonable that portions of this early activity will persist through the evening and pose a risk of hail and locally damaging winds across parts of ND. Later CAM solutions will hopefully help better focus this threat area. ...KS/MO... A large area of overnight convection has resulted in a convectively-aided shortwave trough that will move into eastern KS this afternoon. Thunderstorms will likely re-develop near/east of the remnant MCV and track into western MO during the evening. Assuming sufficient heating can occur this afternoon along the southeastern edge of the remnant clouds, a corridor of MRGL severe threat will likely develop. Isolated damaging wind gusts would be the main concern. ..Hart/Grams.. 07/25/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0753 AM CDT Fri Jul 25 2025 Valid 251300Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR MUCH OF NORTH DAKOTA...AND FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND INTO THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC REGION... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms will pose a risk of damaging wind gusts across parts of New England and the northern Mid Atlantic later today. Severe storms will also be possible across much of North Dakota. ...Northeast States... Morning water vapor imagery shows a fast-moving shortwave trough progressing eastward across Ontario. The associated cold front will move through the St Lawrence Valley this morning and southward across New England this afternoon. Relatively hot/humid conditions ahead of the front will lead to widely scattered afternoon thunderstorms across southern New England and eastern NY/PA. These storms will track southeastward toward the coast through the early evening. Coverage of intense storms is uncertain, but conditions will be favorable for gusty/damaging winds in the cells that form. ...Northern Plains... An upper ridge remains centered over the central Plains, with a weak southern-stream trough currently moving across UT into WY. Weak lift and increased mid-level moisture ahead of the system will aid in the development of scattered thunderstorms by late afternoon across parts of eastern MT/northeast WY. Thermodynamic parameters appear favorable for large hail in the stronger cells. Model guidance varies on handling this activity as it spreads eastward. However, it appears reasonable that portions of this early activity will persist through the evening and pose a risk of hail and locally damaging winds across parts of ND. Later CAM solutions will hopefully help better focus this threat area. ...KS/MO... A large area of overnight convection has resulted in a convectively-aided shortwave trough that will move into eastern KS this afternoon. Thunderstorms will likely re-develop near/east of the remnant MCV and track into western MO during the evening. Assuming sufficient heating can occur this afternoon along the southeastern edge of the remnant clouds, a corridor of MRGL severe threat will likely develop. Isolated damaging wind gusts would be the main concern. ..Hart/Grams.. 07/25/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0753 AM CDT Fri Jul 25 2025 Valid 251300Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR MUCH OF NORTH DAKOTA...AND FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND INTO THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC REGION... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms will pose a risk of damaging wind gusts across parts of New England and the northern Mid Atlantic later today. Severe storms will also be possible across much of North Dakota. ...Northeast States... Morning water vapor imagery shows a fast-moving shortwave trough progressing eastward across Ontario. The associated cold front will move through the St Lawrence Valley this morning and southward across New England this afternoon. Relatively hot/humid conditions ahead of the front will lead to widely scattered afternoon thunderstorms across southern New England and eastern NY/PA. These storms will track southeastward toward the coast through the early evening. Coverage of intense storms is uncertain, but conditions will be favorable for gusty/damaging winds in the cells that form. ...Northern Plains... An upper ridge remains centered over the central Plains, with a weak southern-stream trough currently moving across UT into WY. Weak lift and increased mid-level moisture ahead of the system will aid in the development of scattered thunderstorms by late afternoon across parts of eastern MT/northeast WY. Thermodynamic parameters appear favorable for large hail in the stronger cells. Model guidance varies on handling this activity as it spreads eastward. However, it appears reasonable that portions of this early activity will persist through the evening and pose a risk of hail and locally damaging winds across parts of ND. Later CAM solutions will hopefully help better focus this threat area. ...KS/MO... A large area of overnight convection has resulted in a convectively-aided shortwave trough that will move into eastern KS this afternoon. Thunderstorms will likely re-develop near/east of the remnant MCV and track into western MO during the evening. Assuming sufficient heating can occur this afternoon along the southeastern edge of the remnant clouds, a corridor of MRGL severe threat will likely develop. Isolated damaging wind gusts would be the main concern. ..Hart/Grams.. 07/25/2025 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0355 AM CDT Fri Jul 25 2025 Valid 281200Z - 021200Z ...DISCUSSION... The strongest mid-level flow will move from the Upper Midwest into the Northeast this weekend into the middle of next week. As this occurs, a surface boundary will slowly sag into the central Plains and Ohio Valley. Given the very moist airmass to the south of the boundary, strong to potentially severe storms are possible along the boundary at least into the middle of next week. With the stronger flow/shear displace north of the boundary and model differences in the location, uncertainty remains too high for highlights. Farther west, moisture will be pushed up against parts of the northern Rockies and adjacent High Plains. Between the terrain and shortwave troughs moving through the central U.S. ridge, it is possible strong to severe storms could develop and progress along the surface boundary into greater areas of moisture/buoyancy in the Plains. Given the dependency on the low-predictability shortwaves, it is not clear where the greatest risk will be from the High Plains into the Plains through the middle of next week. By the end of next week, model guidance suggests a general trend of continued upper ridge building into Plains. Stronger mid-level winds will remain in parts of the Northeast with additional shortwave perturbations moving through parts of the northern Rockies. Severe risk along the boundary should decrease as it becomes further removed from the stronger flow. Though predictability is low regarding the shortwave troughs, some severe risk could develop in parts of the northern Rockies. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0355 AM CDT Fri Jul 25 2025 Valid 281200Z - 021200Z ...DISCUSSION... The strongest mid-level flow will move from the Upper Midwest into the Northeast this weekend into the middle of next week. As this occurs, a surface boundary will slowly sag into the central Plains and Ohio Valley. Given the very moist airmass to the south of the boundary, strong to potentially severe storms are possible along the boundary at least into the middle of next week. With the stronger flow/shear displace north of the boundary and model differences in the location, uncertainty remains too high for highlights. Farther west, moisture will be pushed up against parts of the northern Rockies and adjacent High Plains. Between the terrain and shortwave troughs moving through the central U.S. ridge, it is possible strong to severe storms could develop and progress along the surface boundary into greater areas of moisture/buoyancy in the Plains. Given the dependency on the low-predictability shortwaves, it is not clear where the greatest risk will be from the High Plains into the Plains through the middle of next week. By the end of next week, model guidance suggests a general trend of continued upper ridge building into Plains. Stronger mid-level winds will remain in parts of the Northeast with additional shortwave perturbations moving through parts of the northern Rockies. Severe risk along the boundary should decrease as it becomes further removed from the stronger flow. Though predictability is low regarding the shortwave troughs, some severe risk could develop in parts of the northern Rockies. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0355 AM CDT Fri Jul 25 2025 Valid 281200Z - 021200Z ...DISCUSSION... The strongest mid-level flow will move from the Upper Midwest into the Northeast this weekend into the middle of next week. As this occurs, a surface boundary will slowly sag into the central Plains and Ohio Valley. Given the very moist airmass to the south of the boundary, strong to potentially severe storms are possible along the boundary at least into the middle of next week. With the stronger flow/shear displace north of the boundary and model differences in the location, uncertainty remains too high for highlights. Farther west, moisture will be pushed up against parts of the northern Rockies and adjacent High Plains. Between the terrain and shortwave troughs moving through the central U.S. ridge, it is possible strong to severe storms could develop and progress along the surface boundary into greater areas of moisture/buoyancy in the Plains. Given the dependency on the low-predictability shortwaves, it is not clear where the greatest risk will be from the High Plains into the Plains through the middle of next week. By the end of next week, model guidance suggests a general trend of continued upper ridge building into Plains. Stronger mid-level winds will remain in parts of the Northeast with additional shortwave perturbations moving through parts of the northern Rockies. Severe risk along the boundary should decrease as it becomes further removed from the stronger flow. Though predictability is low regarding the shortwave troughs, some severe risk could develop in parts of the northern Rockies. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0355 AM CDT Fri Jul 25 2025 Valid 281200Z - 021200Z ...DISCUSSION... The strongest mid-level flow will move from the Upper Midwest into the Northeast this weekend into the middle of next week. As this occurs, a surface boundary will slowly sag into the central Plains and Ohio Valley. Given the very moist airmass to the south of the boundary, strong to potentially severe storms are possible along the boundary at least into the middle of next week. With the stronger flow/shear displace north of the boundary and model differences in the location, uncertainty remains too high for highlights. Farther west, moisture will be pushed up against parts of the northern Rockies and adjacent High Plains. Between the terrain and shortwave troughs moving through the central U.S. ridge, it is possible strong to severe storms could develop and progress along the surface boundary into greater areas of moisture/buoyancy in the Plains. Given the dependency on the low-predictability shortwaves, it is not clear where the greatest risk will be from the High Plains into the Plains through the middle of next week. By the end of next week, model guidance suggests a general trend of continued upper ridge building into Plains. Stronger mid-level winds will remain in parts of the Northeast with additional shortwave perturbations moving through parts of the northern Rockies. Severe risk along the boundary should decrease as it becomes further removed from the stronger flow. Though predictability is low regarding the shortwave troughs, some severe risk could develop in parts of the northern Rockies. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0355 AM CDT Fri Jul 25 2025 Valid 281200Z - 021200Z ...DISCUSSION... The strongest mid-level flow will move from the Upper Midwest into the Northeast this weekend into the middle of next week. As this occurs, a surface boundary will slowly sag into the central Plains and Ohio Valley. Given the very moist airmass to the south of the boundary, strong to potentially severe storms are possible along the boundary at least into the middle of next week. With the stronger flow/shear displace north of the boundary and model differences in the location, uncertainty remains too high for highlights. Farther west, moisture will be pushed up against parts of the northern Rockies and adjacent High Plains. Between the terrain and shortwave troughs moving through the central U.S. ridge, it is possible strong to severe storms could develop and progress along the surface boundary into greater areas of moisture/buoyancy in the Plains. Given the dependency on the low-predictability shortwaves, it is not clear where the greatest risk will be from the High Plains into the Plains through the middle of next week. By the end of next week, model guidance suggests a general trend of continued upper ridge building into Plains. Stronger mid-level winds will remain in parts of the Northeast with additional shortwave perturbations moving through parts of the northern Rockies. Severe risk along the boundary should decrease as it becomes further removed from the stronger flow. Though predictability is low regarding the shortwave troughs, some severe risk could develop in parts of the northern Rockies. Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Fri Jul 25 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible from the northern Plains into the Upper Midwest. ...Synopsis... The upper-level ridge centered over the Mid-South will push northwestward on Sunday. A broad area of moderate mid-level winds will persist across the northern Rockies into the Upper Midwest. Southerly surface to 850 mb flow will draw seasonably rich moisture northward into the northern Plains and Upper Midwest. Strong to extreme buoyancy is expected to develop in these areas (3000-4000+ J/kg MLCAPE forecast). As the upper ridge continues to intensify, shear will be on the increase as well. The development of severe storms appears most likely near a surface trough/low in the Dakotas with additional potential along a warm front into the Upper Midwest. ...Northern Plains into Upper Midwest... A rather uncertain forecast exists for this Sunday. The overall synoptic pattern would suggest the potential for MCS development somewhere within these areas. The NAM/GFS/ECMWF all show convective development, but their timing and location differ. This is in part due to the uncertainties with regard to what occurs Saturday afternoon into early Sunday morning. How intense this activity becomes late Saturday and where it travels into early Sunday will play a large role in the most favorable zone for afternoon storm initiation. The ECMWF/GFS tend to suggest storms will develop in the Upper Midwest on the warm front/outflow from Saturday night. The NAM is farther west and much later with development mid/late evening Sunday. For now, a broad marginal captures the envelope of possible outcomes. The environment will be conditionally favorable for strong MCS development capable of swaths of severe wind gusts. Higher severe probabilities will probably be needed as uncertainty decreases with additional/updated guidance. ..Wendt.. 07/25/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Fri Jul 25 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible from the northern Plains into the Upper Midwest. ...Synopsis... The upper-level ridge centered over the Mid-South will push northwestward on Sunday. A broad area of moderate mid-level winds will persist across the northern Rockies into the Upper Midwest. Southerly surface to 850 mb flow will draw seasonably rich moisture northward into the northern Plains and Upper Midwest. Strong to extreme buoyancy is expected to develop in these areas (3000-4000+ J/kg MLCAPE forecast). As the upper ridge continues to intensify, shear will be on the increase as well. The development of severe storms appears most likely near a surface trough/low in the Dakotas with additional potential along a warm front into the Upper Midwest. ...Northern Plains into Upper Midwest... A rather uncertain forecast exists for this Sunday. The overall synoptic pattern would suggest the potential for MCS development somewhere within these areas. The NAM/GFS/ECMWF all show convective development, but their timing and location differ. This is in part due to the uncertainties with regard to what occurs Saturday afternoon into early Sunday morning. How intense this activity becomes late Saturday and where it travels into early Sunday will play a large role in the most favorable zone for afternoon storm initiation. The ECMWF/GFS tend to suggest storms will develop in the Upper Midwest on the warm front/outflow from Saturday night. The NAM is farther west and much later with development mid/late evening Sunday. For now, a broad marginal captures the envelope of possible outcomes. The environment will be conditionally favorable for strong MCS development capable of swaths of severe wind gusts. Higher severe probabilities will probably be needed as uncertainty decreases with additional/updated guidance. ..Wendt.. 07/25/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Fri Jul 25 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible from the northern Plains into the Upper Midwest. ...Synopsis... The upper-level ridge centered over the Mid-South will push northwestward on Sunday. A broad area of moderate mid-level winds will persist across the northern Rockies into the Upper Midwest. Southerly surface to 850 mb flow will draw seasonably rich moisture northward into the northern Plains and Upper Midwest. Strong to extreme buoyancy is expected to develop in these areas (3000-4000+ J/kg MLCAPE forecast). As the upper ridge continues to intensify, shear will be on the increase as well. The development of severe storms appears most likely near a surface trough/low in the Dakotas with additional potential along a warm front into the Upper Midwest. ...Northern Plains into Upper Midwest... A rather uncertain forecast exists for this Sunday. The overall synoptic pattern would suggest the potential for MCS development somewhere within these areas. The NAM/GFS/ECMWF all show convective development, but their timing and location differ. This is in part due to the uncertainties with regard to what occurs Saturday afternoon into early Sunday morning. How intense this activity becomes late Saturday and where it travels into early Sunday will play a large role in the most favorable zone for afternoon storm initiation. The ECMWF/GFS tend to suggest storms will develop in the Upper Midwest on the warm front/outflow from Saturday night. The NAM is farther west and much later with development mid/late evening Sunday. For now, a broad marginal captures the envelope of possible outcomes. The environment will be conditionally favorable for strong MCS development capable of swaths of severe wind gusts. Higher severe probabilities will probably be needed as uncertainty decreases with additional/updated guidance. ..Wendt.. 07/25/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Fri Jul 25 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible from the northern Plains into the Upper Midwest. ...Synopsis... The upper-level ridge centered over the Mid-South will push northwestward on Sunday. A broad area of moderate mid-level winds will persist across the northern Rockies into the Upper Midwest. Southerly surface to 850 mb flow will draw seasonably rich moisture northward into the northern Plains and Upper Midwest. Strong to extreme buoyancy is expected to develop in these areas (3000-4000+ J/kg MLCAPE forecast). As the upper ridge continues to intensify, shear will be on the increase as well. The development of severe storms appears most likely near a surface trough/low in the Dakotas with additional potential along a warm front into the Upper Midwest. ...Northern Plains into Upper Midwest... A rather uncertain forecast exists for this Sunday. The overall synoptic pattern would suggest the potential for MCS development somewhere within these areas. The NAM/GFS/ECMWF all show convective development, but their timing and location differ. This is in part due to the uncertainties with regard to what occurs Saturday afternoon into early Sunday morning. How intense this activity becomes late Saturday and where it travels into early Sunday will play a large role in the most favorable zone for afternoon storm initiation. The ECMWF/GFS tend to suggest storms will develop in the Upper Midwest on the warm front/outflow from Saturday night. The NAM is farther west and much later with development mid/late evening Sunday. For now, a broad marginal captures the envelope of possible outcomes. The environment will be conditionally favorable for strong MCS development capable of swaths of severe wind gusts. Higher severe probabilities will probably be needed as uncertainty decreases with additional/updated guidance. ..Wendt.. 07/25/2025 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0145 AM CDT Fri Jul 25 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...Synopsis... An upper ridge will remain in place from the Great Plains eastward, as a mid-level trough continues to meander over the Interior West tomorrow (Saturday). During the day, multiple mid-level impulses will traverse the upper trough and crest the ridge. One mid-level impulse should graze the Great Basin, promoting enough upper support for dry and windy conditions over the Four Corners. 15-20 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds atop 10-20 percent RH and receptive fuels warrants the introduction of Elevated highlights. Furthermore, mid-level moisture will still linger over the northern Great Basin toward the northern Rockies, which will be lifted by the aforementioned mid-level impulse to support isolated to scattered high-based thunderstorm development. A mix of dry and wet thunderstorms will develop atop dry fuels, where ignition potential will exist, hence the introduction of isolated dry thunderstorm highlights. ..Squitieri.. 07/25/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0145 AM CDT Fri Jul 25 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...Synopsis... An upper ridge will remain in place from the Great Plains eastward, as a mid-level trough continues to meander over the Interior West tomorrow (Saturday). During the day, multiple mid-level impulses will traverse the upper trough and crest the ridge. One mid-level impulse should graze the Great Basin, promoting enough upper support for dry and windy conditions over the Four Corners. 15-20 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds atop 10-20 percent RH and receptive fuels warrants the introduction of Elevated highlights. Furthermore, mid-level moisture will still linger over the northern Great Basin toward the northern Rockies, which will be lifted by the aforementioned mid-level impulse to support isolated to scattered high-based thunderstorm development. A mix of dry and wet thunderstorms will develop atop dry fuels, where ignition potential will exist, hence the introduction of isolated dry thunderstorm highlights. ..Squitieri.. 07/25/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0145 AM CDT Fri Jul 25 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...Synopsis... An upper ridge will remain in place from the Great Plains eastward, as a mid-level trough continues to meander over the Interior West tomorrow (Saturday). During the day, multiple mid-level impulses will traverse the upper trough and crest the ridge. One mid-level impulse should graze the Great Basin, promoting enough upper support for dry and windy conditions over the Four Corners. 15-20 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds atop 10-20 percent RH and receptive fuels warrants the introduction of Elevated highlights. Furthermore, mid-level moisture will still linger over the northern Great Basin toward the northern Rockies, which will be lifted by the aforementioned mid-level impulse to support isolated to scattered high-based thunderstorm development. A mix of dry and wet thunderstorms will develop atop dry fuels, where ignition potential will exist, hence the introduction of isolated dry thunderstorm highlights. ..Squitieri.. 07/25/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0143 AM CDT Fri Jul 25 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...Synopsis... An upper ridge will prevail over the central and eastern U.S. while an upper trough lingers over the Interior West today. Adequate lift ahead of the upper trough amid appreciable mid-level moisture and buoyancy will support isolated to scattered thunderstorm development over the Sierra toward the Northern Rockies by the afternoon. Forecast soundings in this region depict inverted-v profiles, with 0.25-0.75 inch PWATs, promoting a mix of wet and dry high-based thunderstorms. Given dry fuels in the region, isolated dry thunderstorm highlights seem necessary. ..Squitieri.. 07/25/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0143 AM CDT Fri Jul 25 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...Synopsis... An upper ridge will prevail over the central and eastern U.S. while an upper trough lingers over the Interior West today. Adequate lift ahead of the upper trough amid appreciable mid-level moisture and buoyancy will support isolated to scattered thunderstorm development over the Sierra toward the Northern Rockies by the afternoon. Forecast soundings in this region depict inverted-v profiles, with 0.25-0.75 inch PWATs, promoting a mix of wet and dry high-based thunderstorms. Given dry fuels in the region, isolated dry thunderstorm highlights seem necessary. ..Squitieri.. 07/25/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more