Severe Storms

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 AM CDT Mon May 06 2024 Valid 091200Z - 141200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Day 4/Thursday... Medium-range guidance is in reasonable agreement showing an upper trough moving gradually eastward from the Midwest/OH Valley and Great Lakes to the Eastern Seaboard on Thursday. A weak surface low initially over the OH Valley should likewise advance eastward through the day while slowly deepening, and eventually reaching the Mid-Atlantic by Thursday evening. A moist low-level airmass should be in place across the Southeast, and extend northeastward into parts of the Carolinas and Mid-Atlantic ahead of a cold front. Weak to moderate instability should develop ahead of the front with daytime heating. Mid-level flow and related deep-layer shear is likewise expected to slowly increase through the day with the eastward progression of the upper trough. Thunderstorms should gradually increase in coverage and intensity through the afternoon, especially along/east of the Blue Ridge and Appalachian Mountains. Confidence in organized severe thunderstorms occurring has increased enough to add a broad 15% severe area from GA to the Mid-Atlantic. A separate area of potential severe thunderstorms has also become apparent across parts of TX on Thursday. A weak/low-amplitude shortwave trough should advance northeastward from northern Mexico across the southern Plains through the day, providing ascent needed to initiate convection along a surface front/dryline. A very moist and unstable airmass will likely be present south/east of these boundaries, and deep-layer shear appears sufficiently strong for severe thunderstorms capable of producing mainly severe hail and damaging winds. In between the two 15% severe areas, some severe threat should also exist across the Southeast. However, the effect of a possible overnight/early Thursday morning MCS may complicate destabilization and related severe potential later in the day. Have therefore not included the central Gulf Coast States in a 15% severe delineation at this time. ...Day 5/Friday - Day 8/Monday... Limited severe potential should become increasingly confined to the immediate Gulf Coast and FL from Friday into the upcoming weekend, as a cold front continues southward. By Sunday into early next week, there are some indications in guidance that low-level moisture may begin to return northward across the southern Plains. However, model spread is large at this extended time frame, and predictability remains low. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 AM CDT Mon May 06 2024 Valid 091200Z - 141200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Day 4/Thursday... Medium-range guidance is in reasonable agreement showing an upper trough moving gradually eastward from the Midwest/OH Valley and Great Lakes to the Eastern Seaboard on Thursday. A weak surface low initially over the OH Valley should likewise advance eastward through the day while slowly deepening, and eventually reaching the Mid-Atlantic by Thursday evening. A moist low-level airmass should be in place across the Southeast, and extend northeastward into parts of the Carolinas and Mid-Atlantic ahead of a cold front. Weak to moderate instability should develop ahead of the front with daytime heating. Mid-level flow and related deep-layer shear is likewise expected to slowly increase through the day with the eastward progression of the upper trough. Thunderstorms should gradually increase in coverage and intensity through the afternoon, especially along/east of the Blue Ridge and Appalachian Mountains. Confidence in organized severe thunderstorms occurring has increased enough to add a broad 15% severe area from GA to the Mid-Atlantic. A separate area of potential severe thunderstorms has also become apparent across parts of TX on Thursday. A weak/low-amplitude shortwave trough should advance northeastward from northern Mexico across the southern Plains through the day, providing ascent needed to initiate convection along a surface front/dryline. A very moist and unstable airmass will likely be present south/east of these boundaries, and deep-layer shear appears sufficiently strong for severe thunderstorms capable of producing mainly severe hail and damaging winds. In between the two 15% severe areas, some severe threat should also exist across the Southeast. However, the effect of a possible overnight/early Thursday morning MCS may complicate destabilization and related severe potential later in the day. Have therefore not included the central Gulf Coast States in a 15% severe delineation at this time. ...Day 5/Friday - Day 8/Monday... Limited severe potential should become increasingly confined to the immediate Gulf Coast and FL from Friday into the upcoming weekend, as a cold front continues southward. By Sunday into early next week, there are some indications in guidance that low-level moisture may begin to return northward across the southern Plains. However, model spread is large at this extended time frame, and predictability remains low. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 AM CDT Mon May 06 2024 Valid 091200Z - 141200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Day 4/Thursday... Medium-range guidance is in reasonable agreement showing an upper trough moving gradually eastward from the Midwest/OH Valley and Great Lakes to the Eastern Seaboard on Thursday. A weak surface low initially over the OH Valley should likewise advance eastward through the day while slowly deepening, and eventually reaching the Mid-Atlantic by Thursday evening. A moist low-level airmass should be in place across the Southeast, and extend northeastward into parts of the Carolinas and Mid-Atlantic ahead of a cold front. Weak to moderate instability should develop ahead of the front with daytime heating. Mid-level flow and related deep-layer shear is likewise expected to slowly increase through the day with the eastward progression of the upper trough. Thunderstorms should gradually increase in coverage and intensity through the afternoon, especially along/east of the Blue Ridge and Appalachian Mountains. Confidence in organized severe thunderstorms occurring has increased enough to add a broad 15% severe area from GA to the Mid-Atlantic. A separate area of potential severe thunderstorms has also become apparent across parts of TX on Thursday. A weak/low-amplitude shortwave trough should advance northeastward from northern Mexico across the southern Plains through the day, providing ascent needed to initiate convection along a surface front/dryline. A very moist and unstable airmass will likely be present south/east of these boundaries, and deep-layer shear appears sufficiently strong for severe thunderstorms capable of producing mainly severe hail and damaging winds. In between the two 15% severe areas, some severe threat should also exist across the Southeast. However, the effect of a possible overnight/early Thursday morning MCS may complicate destabilization and related severe potential later in the day. Have therefore not included the central Gulf Coast States in a 15% severe delineation at this time. ...Day 5/Friday - Day 8/Monday... Limited severe potential should become increasingly confined to the immediate Gulf Coast and FL from Friday into the upcoming weekend, as a cold front continues southward. By Sunday into early next week, there are some indications in guidance that low-level moisture may begin to return northward across the southern Plains. However, model spread is large at this extended time frame, and predictability remains low. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0302 AM CDT Mon May 06 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z CORRECTED FOR HEADLINE ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF NEW MEXICO INTO THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...Synopsis... A broad trough will develop across much of the western and central U.S. on Tuesday. Strong flow aloft will remain across the southern Rockies. A deeper surface cyclone is expected to develop in the southern High Plains as compared to Monday. The coverage and 20+ mph winds in New Mexico should be somewhat greater as a result. RH will once again drop to 10-15% during the afternoon. Elevated to critical fire weather is once again expected. Dry and breezy conditions will extend into parts of the southern High Plains and western Kansas, but fuels appear less receptive in these areas. ..Wendt.. 05/06/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0302 AM CDT Mon May 06 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z CORRECTED FOR HEADLINE ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF NEW MEXICO INTO THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...Synopsis... A broad trough will develop across much of the western and central U.S. on Tuesday. Strong flow aloft will remain across the southern Rockies. A deeper surface cyclone is expected to develop in the southern High Plains as compared to Monday. The coverage and 20+ mph winds in New Mexico should be somewhat greater as a result. RH will once again drop to 10-15% during the afternoon. Elevated to critical fire weather is once again expected. Dry and breezy conditions will extend into parts of the southern High Plains and western Kansas, but fuels appear less receptive in these areas. ..Wendt.. 05/06/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0302 AM CDT Mon May 06 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z CORRECTED FOR HEADLINE ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF NEW MEXICO INTO THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...Synopsis... A broad trough will develop across much of the western and central U.S. on Tuesday. Strong flow aloft will remain across the southern Rockies. A deeper surface cyclone is expected to develop in the southern High Plains as compared to Monday. The coverage and 20+ mph winds in New Mexico should be somewhat greater as a result. RH will once again drop to 10-15% during the afternoon. Elevated to critical fire weather is once again expected. Dry and breezy conditions will extend into parts of the southern High Plains and western Kansas, but fuels appear less receptive in these areas. ..Wendt.. 05/06/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0302 AM CDT Mon May 06 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z CORRECTED FOR HEADLINE ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF NEW MEXICO INTO THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...Synopsis... A broad trough will develop across much of the western and central U.S. on Tuesday. Strong flow aloft will remain across the southern Rockies. A deeper surface cyclone is expected to develop in the southern High Plains as compared to Monday. The coverage and 20+ mph winds in New Mexico should be somewhat greater as a result. RH will once again drop to 10-15% during the afternoon. Elevated to critical fire weather is once again expected. Dry and breezy conditions will extend into parts of the southern High Plains and western Kansas, but fuels appear less receptive in these areas. ..Wendt.. 05/06/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0302 AM CDT Mon May 06 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z CORRECTED FOR HEADLINE ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF NEW MEXICO INTO THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...Synopsis... A broad trough will develop across much of the western and central U.S. on Tuesday. Strong flow aloft will remain across the southern Rockies. A deeper surface cyclone is expected to develop in the southern High Plains as compared to Monday. The coverage and 20+ mph winds in New Mexico should be somewhat greater as a result. RH will once again drop to 10-15% during the afternoon. Elevated to critical fire weather is once again expected. Dry and breezy conditions will extend into parts of the southern High Plains and western Kansas, but fuels appear less receptive in these areas. ..Wendt.. 05/06/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0302 AM CDT Mon May 06 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z CORRECTED FOR HEADLINE ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF NEW MEXICO INTO THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...Synopsis... A broad trough will develop across much of the western and central U.S. on Tuesday. Strong flow aloft will remain across the southern Rockies. A deeper surface cyclone is expected to develop in the southern High Plains as compared to Monday. The coverage and 20+ mph winds in New Mexico should be somewhat greater as a result. RH will once again drop to 10-15% during the afternoon. Elevated to critical fire weather is once again expected. Dry and breezy conditions will extend into parts of the southern High Plains and western Kansas, but fuels appear less receptive in these areas. ..Wendt.. 05/06/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0302 AM CDT Mon May 06 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z CORRECTED FOR HEADLINE ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF NEW MEXICO INTO THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...Synopsis... A broad trough will develop across much of the western and central U.S. on Tuesday. Strong flow aloft will remain across the southern Rockies. A deeper surface cyclone is expected to develop in the southern High Plains as compared to Monday. The coverage and 20+ mph winds in New Mexico should be somewhat greater as a result. RH will once again drop to 10-15% during the afternoon. Elevated to critical fire weather is once again expected. Dry and breezy conditions will extend into parts of the southern High Plains and western Kansas, but fuels appear less receptive in these areas. ..Wendt.. 05/06/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 AM CDT Mon May 06 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z CORRECTED FOR HEADLINE ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF NEW MEXICO INTO WEST TEXAS... ...Synopsis... A potent shortwave trough will pivot through the Southwest this morning with mid-level winds remaining strong across the southern Rockies. A deep surface cyclone will develop in the northern High Plains with a surface trough extending southward along the lee of the Rockies. Strong mid-level winds will combine with the strong surface pressure gradient to promote winds of 20+ mph, particularly in parts of eastern New Mexico. RH during the afternoon will fall to near 10-15%. Elevated to critical fire weather is expected given dry fuels present in New Mexico. ..Wendt.. 05/06/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 AM CDT Mon May 06 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z CORRECTED FOR HEADLINE ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF NEW MEXICO INTO WEST TEXAS... ...Synopsis... A potent shortwave trough will pivot through the Southwest this morning with mid-level winds remaining strong across the southern Rockies. A deep surface cyclone will develop in the northern High Plains with a surface trough extending southward along the lee of the Rockies. Strong mid-level winds will combine with the strong surface pressure gradient to promote winds of 20+ mph, particularly in parts of eastern New Mexico. RH during the afternoon will fall to near 10-15%. Elevated to critical fire weather is expected given dry fuels present in New Mexico. ..Wendt.. 05/06/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 AM CDT Mon May 06 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z CORRECTED FOR HEADLINE ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF NEW MEXICO INTO WEST TEXAS... ...Synopsis... A potent shortwave trough will pivot through the Southwest this morning with mid-level winds remaining strong across the southern Rockies. A deep surface cyclone will develop in the northern High Plains with a surface trough extending southward along the lee of the Rockies. Strong mid-level winds will combine with the strong surface pressure gradient to promote winds of 20+ mph, particularly in parts of eastern New Mexico. RH during the afternoon will fall to near 10-15%. Elevated to critical fire weather is expected given dry fuels present in New Mexico. ..Wendt.. 05/06/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 AM CDT Mon May 06 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z CORRECTED FOR HEADLINE ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF NEW MEXICO INTO WEST TEXAS... ...Synopsis... A potent shortwave trough will pivot through the Southwest this morning with mid-level winds remaining strong across the southern Rockies. A deep surface cyclone will develop in the northern High Plains with a surface trough extending southward along the lee of the Rockies. Strong mid-level winds will combine with the strong surface pressure gradient to promote winds of 20+ mph, particularly in parts of eastern New Mexico. RH during the afternoon will fall to near 10-15%. Elevated to critical fire weather is expected given dry fuels present in New Mexico. ..Wendt.. 05/06/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 AM CDT Mon May 06 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z CORRECTED FOR HEADLINE ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF NEW MEXICO INTO WEST TEXAS... ...Synopsis... A potent shortwave trough will pivot through the Southwest this morning with mid-level winds remaining strong across the southern Rockies. A deep surface cyclone will develop in the northern High Plains with a surface trough extending southward along the lee of the Rockies. Strong mid-level winds will combine with the strong surface pressure gradient to promote winds of 20+ mph, particularly in parts of eastern New Mexico. RH during the afternoon will fall to near 10-15%. Elevated to critical fire weather is expected given dry fuels present in New Mexico. ..Wendt.. 05/06/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 AM CDT Mon May 06 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z CORRECTED FOR HEADLINE ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF NEW MEXICO INTO WEST TEXAS... ...Synopsis... A potent shortwave trough will pivot through the Southwest this morning with mid-level winds remaining strong across the southern Rockies. A deep surface cyclone will develop in the northern High Plains with a surface trough extending southward along the lee of the Rockies. Strong mid-level winds will combine with the strong surface pressure gradient to promote winds of 20+ mph, particularly in parts of eastern New Mexico. RH during the afternoon will fall to near 10-15%. Elevated to critical fire weather is expected given dry fuels present in New Mexico. ..Wendt.. 05/06/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 AM CDT Mon May 06 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z CORRECTED FOR HEADLINE ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF NEW MEXICO INTO WEST TEXAS... ...Synopsis... A potent shortwave trough will pivot through the Southwest this morning with mid-level winds remaining strong across the southern Rockies. A deep surface cyclone will develop in the northern High Plains with a surface trough extending southward along the lee of the Rockies. Strong mid-level winds will combine with the strong surface pressure gradient to promote winds of 20+ mph, particularly in parts of eastern New Mexico. RH during the afternoon will fall to near 10-15%. Elevated to critical fire weather is expected given dry fuels present in New Mexico. ..Wendt.. 05/06/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Mon May 06 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF NORTHEAST TEXAS INTO THE MID-SOUTH/MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND OHIO VALLEY/MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered to numerous severe thunderstorms appear likely Wednesday across from parts of the southern Plains into the mid Mississippi, Ohio, and Tennessee Valleys. All severe hazards, including tornadoes, very large hail, and severe/damaging winds should occur. Some of the tornadoes may be strong. ...Southern Plains into the Mid-South/mid Mississippi Valley and Ohio/Tennessee Valleys... An upper low will remain over the northern Plains and Upper Midwest on Wednesday. An embedded shortwave trough will eject eastward across the mid MS Valley into the OH Valley through the period. The primary surface low of interest will move across MO into IL/IN through the day, with a warm front extending eastward from this low across the OH Valley. An attendant cold front should also make some southeastward progress across the southern Plains into the mid MS Valley. A volatile setup from severe thunderstorms has become more apparent from northeast TX into the Mid-South/mid MS Valley and parts of the OH Valley, where and Enhanced Risk has been introduced. Here, a very favorable combination of strong instability and deep-layer shear is forecast to develop, supporting a threat for supercells and intense bowing clusters/line segments. Current expectations are for severe convection to erupt fairly early in the day, perhaps by late Wednesday morning, along both the cold front and warm front as ascent with the shortwave trough overspreads the rapidly destabilizing warm sector. Although convective evolution remains somewhat uncertain, very large hail will be a threat with initial supercells, and severe/damaging winds will likely become an increasing concern as intense convection spreads east-southeastward through the afternoon and evening. A moderate to strong low-level jet should migrate eastward across the mid MS and OH Valleys through the day, supporting enhanced low-level shear, especially in the vicinity of the warm front. Tornadoes will be a concern with any supercells in this favorable shear environment. Some of these tornadoes could be strong given the favorable thermodynamic and kinematic environment. The severe threat is expected to continue with southward and eastward extent into the lower MS Valley, TN Valley, and central/southern Appalachians through at least Wednesday evening before eventually weakening. Peripheral areas of severe potential are also apparent. One such area is in IA and vicinity with low-topped convection beneath the cold-core upper low. Another is in the Mid-Atlantic and Carolinas with a separate mid-level shortwave trough and surface lee trough extending southward along the length of the Appalachians. The severe threat across these regions is currently expected to remain fairly isolated/marginal. ..Gleason.. 05/06/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Mon May 06 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF NORTHEAST TEXAS INTO THE MID-SOUTH/MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND OHIO VALLEY/MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered to numerous severe thunderstorms appear likely Wednesday across from parts of the southern Plains into the mid Mississippi, Ohio, and Tennessee Valleys. All severe hazards, including tornadoes, very large hail, and severe/damaging winds should occur. Some of the tornadoes may be strong. ...Southern Plains into the Mid-South/mid Mississippi Valley and Ohio/Tennessee Valleys... An upper low will remain over the northern Plains and Upper Midwest on Wednesday. An embedded shortwave trough will eject eastward across the mid MS Valley into the OH Valley through the period. The primary surface low of interest will move across MO into IL/IN through the day, with a warm front extending eastward from this low across the OH Valley. An attendant cold front should also make some southeastward progress across the southern Plains into the mid MS Valley. A volatile setup from severe thunderstorms has become more apparent from northeast TX into the Mid-South/mid MS Valley and parts of the OH Valley, where and Enhanced Risk has been introduced. Here, a very favorable combination of strong instability and deep-layer shear is forecast to develop, supporting a threat for supercells and intense bowing clusters/line segments. Current expectations are for severe convection to erupt fairly early in the day, perhaps by late Wednesday morning, along both the cold front and warm front as ascent with the shortwave trough overspreads the rapidly destabilizing warm sector. Although convective evolution remains somewhat uncertain, very large hail will be a threat with initial supercells, and severe/damaging winds will likely become an increasing concern as intense convection spreads east-southeastward through the afternoon and evening. A moderate to strong low-level jet should migrate eastward across the mid MS and OH Valleys through the day, supporting enhanced low-level shear, especially in the vicinity of the warm front. Tornadoes will be a concern with any supercells in this favorable shear environment. Some of these tornadoes could be strong given the favorable thermodynamic and kinematic environment. The severe threat is expected to continue with southward and eastward extent into the lower MS Valley, TN Valley, and central/southern Appalachians through at least Wednesday evening before eventually weakening. Peripheral areas of severe potential are also apparent. One such area is in IA and vicinity with low-topped convection beneath the cold-core upper low. Another is in the Mid-Atlantic and Carolinas with a separate mid-level shortwave trough and surface lee trough extending southward along the length of the Appalachians. The severe threat across these regions is currently expected to remain fairly isolated/marginal. ..Gleason.. 05/06/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Mon May 06 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF NORTHEAST TEXAS INTO THE MID-SOUTH/MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND OHIO VALLEY/MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered to numerous severe thunderstorms appear likely Wednesday across from parts of the southern Plains into the mid Mississippi, Ohio, and Tennessee Valleys. All severe hazards, including tornadoes, very large hail, and severe/damaging winds should occur. Some of the tornadoes may be strong. ...Southern Plains into the Mid-South/mid Mississippi Valley and Ohio/Tennessee Valleys... An upper low will remain over the northern Plains and Upper Midwest on Wednesday. An embedded shortwave trough will eject eastward across the mid MS Valley into the OH Valley through the period. The primary surface low of interest will move across MO into IL/IN through the day, with a warm front extending eastward from this low across the OH Valley. An attendant cold front should also make some southeastward progress across the southern Plains into the mid MS Valley. A volatile setup from severe thunderstorms has become more apparent from northeast TX into the Mid-South/mid MS Valley and parts of the OH Valley, where and Enhanced Risk has been introduced. Here, a very favorable combination of strong instability and deep-layer shear is forecast to develop, supporting a threat for supercells and intense bowing clusters/line segments. Current expectations are for severe convection to erupt fairly early in the day, perhaps by late Wednesday morning, along both the cold front and warm front as ascent with the shortwave trough overspreads the rapidly destabilizing warm sector. Although convective evolution remains somewhat uncertain, very large hail will be a threat with initial supercells, and severe/damaging winds will likely become an increasing concern as intense convection spreads east-southeastward through the afternoon and evening. A moderate to strong low-level jet should migrate eastward across the mid MS and OH Valleys through the day, supporting enhanced low-level shear, especially in the vicinity of the warm front. Tornadoes will be a concern with any supercells in this favorable shear environment. Some of these tornadoes could be strong given the favorable thermodynamic and kinematic environment. The severe threat is expected to continue with southward and eastward extent into the lower MS Valley, TN Valley, and central/southern Appalachians through at least Wednesday evening before eventually weakening. Peripheral areas of severe potential are also apparent. One such area is in IA and vicinity with low-topped convection beneath the cold-core upper low. Another is in the Mid-Atlantic and Carolinas with a separate mid-level shortwave trough and surface lee trough extending southward along the length of the Appalachians. The severe threat across these regions is currently expected to remain fairly isolated/marginal. ..Gleason.. 05/06/2024 Read more