Severe Storms

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Wed May 22 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND THE OZARKS NORTHWARD TO THE SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible on Friday from eastern Oklahoma and the Ozarks, northward to the southern Lake Michigan vicinity. ...Eastern OK to southern Lake Michigan Vicinity... Friday begins with shortwave upper ridging over the Upper Great Lakes vicinity. This ridge will dampen as it shifts east toward the lower Great Lakes and a shortwave upper trough over the northern Plains develops east to the Upper Midwest. To the south across the southern Plains to the TN Valley vicinity, low-amplitude westerly flow around 30-40 kt will prevail. At the surface, low pressure over the eastern Dakotas will lift northward into Manitoba/western Ontario while a cold front progresses eastward across the mid/upper MS Valley and portions of the Ozarks. A seasonally moist airmass will be in place with low to mid 60s F dewpoints across parts of the Lake Michigan vicinity, increasing with southwest extent into OK/AR (upper 60s/low 70s F). Moderate to strong destabilization is expected, aided by steepening midlevel lapse rates. While stronger large-scale ascent will be focused over the Upper Midwest, the progressive cold front will be a focus for thunderstorm development through the period. Vertical shear will be modest, with deep-layer flow mostly parallel to the front. Clusters of thunderstorms pose a risk for strong/damaging gusts and possibly hail. Given a lack of stronger height falls until the nighttime hours and limited large-scale ascent with southward extent, severe thunderstorm coverage and evolution is a bit uncertain. Greater severe probabilities may become necessary in later outlooks if a corridor of greater potential becomes apparent as mesoscale details become better resolved. ...TN Valley to the Carolinas... A very moist and unstable airmass will be in place on Friday. Low-amplitude westerly flow will overspread the region, with large-scale ascent somewhat nebulous. There is some potential that a convectively enhanced vorticity maxima from remnant convection in the Day 2/Thu period will float through westerly flow. If this occurs, this could provide a focus for more organized convection in a weakly sheared environment. Uncertainty and the conditional nature of the threat at this time frame precludes severe probabilities, but strong storms are a possibility. ..Leitman.. 05/22/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Wed May 22 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND THE OZARKS NORTHWARD TO THE SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible on Friday from eastern Oklahoma and the Ozarks, northward to the southern Lake Michigan vicinity. ...Eastern OK to southern Lake Michigan Vicinity... Friday begins with shortwave upper ridging over the Upper Great Lakes vicinity. This ridge will dampen as it shifts east toward the lower Great Lakes and a shortwave upper trough over the northern Plains develops east to the Upper Midwest. To the south across the southern Plains to the TN Valley vicinity, low-amplitude westerly flow around 30-40 kt will prevail. At the surface, low pressure over the eastern Dakotas will lift northward into Manitoba/western Ontario while a cold front progresses eastward across the mid/upper MS Valley and portions of the Ozarks. A seasonally moist airmass will be in place with low to mid 60s F dewpoints across parts of the Lake Michigan vicinity, increasing with southwest extent into OK/AR (upper 60s/low 70s F). Moderate to strong destabilization is expected, aided by steepening midlevel lapse rates. While stronger large-scale ascent will be focused over the Upper Midwest, the progressive cold front will be a focus for thunderstorm development through the period. Vertical shear will be modest, with deep-layer flow mostly parallel to the front. Clusters of thunderstorms pose a risk for strong/damaging gusts and possibly hail. Given a lack of stronger height falls until the nighttime hours and limited large-scale ascent with southward extent, severe thunderstorm coverage and evolution is a bit uncertain. Greater severe probabilities may become necessary in later outlooks if a corridor of greater potential becomes apparent as mesoscale details become better resolved. ...TN Valley to the Carolinas... A very moist and unstable airmass will be in place on Friday. Low-amplitude westerly flow will overspread the region, with large-scale ascent somewhat nebulous. There is some potential that a convectively enhanced vorticity maxima from remnant convection in the Day 2/Thu period will float through westerly flow. If this occurs, this could provide a focus for more organized convection in a weakly sheared environment. Uncertainty and the conditional nature of the threat at this time frame precludes severe probabilities, but strong storms are a possibility. ..Leitman.. 05/22/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Wed May 22 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND THE OZARKS NORTHWARD TO THE SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible on Friday from eastern Oklahoma and the Ozarks, northward to the southern Lake Michigan vicinity. ...Eastern OK to southern Lake Michigan Vicinity... Friday begins with shortwave upper ridging over the Upper Great Lakes vicinity. This ridge will dampen as it shifts east toward the lower Great Lakes and a shortwave upper trough over the northern Plains develops east to the Upper Midwest. To the south across the southern Plains to the TN Valley vicinity, low-amplitude westerly flow around 30-40 kt will prevail. At the surface, low pressure over the eastern Dakotas will lift northward into Manitoba/western Ontario while a cold front progresses eastward across the mid/upper MS Valley and portions of the Ozarks. A seasonally moist airmass will be in place with low to mid 60s F dewpoints across parts of the Lake Michigan vicinity, increasing with southwest extent into OK/AR (upper 60s/low 70s F). Moderate to strong destabilization is expected, aided by steepening midlevel lapse rates. While stronger large-scale ascent will be focused over the Upper Midwest, the progressive cold front will be a focus for thunderstorm development through the period. Vertical shear will be modest, with deep-layer flow mostly parallel to the front. Clusters of thunderstorms pose a risk for strong/damaging gusts and possibly hail. Given a lack of stronger height falls until the nighttime hours and limited large-scale ascent with southward extent, severe thunderstorm coverage and evolution is a bit uncertain. Greater severe probabilities may become necessary in later outlooks if a corridor of greater potential becomes apparent as mesoscale details become better resolved. ...TN Valley to the Carolinas... A very moist and unstable airmass will be in place on Friday. Low-amplitude westerly flow will overspread the region, with large-scale ascent somewhat nebulous. There is some potential that a convectively enhanced vorticity maxima from remnant convection in the Day 2/Thu period will float through westerly flow. If this occurs, this could provide a focus for more organized convection in a weakly sheared environment. Uncertainty and the conditional nature of the threat at this time frame precludes severe probabilities, but strong storms are a possibility. ..Leitman.. 05/22/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Wed May 22 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND THE OZARKS NORTHWARD TO THE SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible on Friday from eastern Oklahoma and the Ozarks, northward to the southern Lake Michigan vicinity. ...Eastern OK to southern Lake Michigan Vicinity... Friday begins with shortwave upper ridging over the Upper Great Lakes vicinity. This ridge will dampen as it shifts east toward the lower Great Lakes and a shortwave upper trough over the northern Plains develops east to the Upper Midwest. To the south across the southern Plains to the TN Valley vicinity, low-amplitude westerly flow around 30-40 kt will prevail. At the surface, low pressure over the eastern Dakotas will lift northward into Manitoba/western Ontario while a cold front progresses eastward across the mid/upper MS Valley and portions of the Ozarks. A seasonally moist airmass will be in place with low to mid 60s F dewpoints across parts of the Lake Michigan vicinity, increasing with southwest extent into OK/AR (upper 60s/low 70s F). Moderate to strong destabilization is expected, aided by steepening midlevel lapse rates. While stronger large-scale ascent will be focused over the Upper Midwest, the progressive cold front will be a focus for thunderstorm development through the period. Vertical shear will be modest, with deep-layer flow mostly parallel to the front. Clusters of thunderstorms pose a risk for strong/damaging gusts and possibly hail. Given a lack of stronger height falls until the nighttime hours and limited large-scale ascent with southward extent, severe thunderstorm coverage and evolution is a bit uncertain. Greater severe probabilities may become necessary in later outlooks if a corridor of greater potential becomes apparent as mesoscale details become better resolved. ...TN Valley to the Carolinas... A very moist and unstable airmass will be in place on Friday. Low-amplitude westerly flow will overspread the region, with large-scale ascent somewhat nebulous. There is some potential that a convectively enhanced vorticity maxima from remnant convection in the Day 2/Thu period will float through westerly flow. If this occurs, this could provide a focus for more organized convection in a weakly sheared environment. Uncertainty and the conditional nature of the threat at this time frame precludes severe probabilities, but strong storms are a possibility. ..Leitman.. 05/22/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Wed May 22 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND THE OZARKS NORTHWARD TO THE SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible on Friday from eastern Oklahoma and the Ozarks, northward to the southern Lake Michigan vicinity. ...Eastern OK to southern Lake Michigan Vicinity... Friday begins with shortwave upper ridging over the Upper Great Lakes vicinity. This ridge will dampen as it shifts east toward the lower Great Lakes and a shortwave upper trough over the northern Plains develops east to the Upper Midwest. To the south across the southern Plains to the TN Valley vicinity, low-amplitude westerly flow around 30-40 kt will prevail. At the surface, low pressure over the eastern Dakotas will lift northward into Manitoba/western Ontario while a cold front progresses eastward across the mid/upper MS Valley and portions of the Ozarks. A seasonally moist airmass will be in place with low to mid 60s F dewpoints across parts of the Lake Michigan vicinity, increasing with southwest extent into OK/AR (upper 60s/low 70s F). Moderate to strong destabilization is expected, aided by steepening midlevel lapse rates. While stronger large-scale ascent will be focused over the Upper Midwest, the progressive cold front will be a focus for thunderstorm development through the period. Vertical shear will be modest, with deep-layer flow mostly parallel to the front. Clusters of thunderstorms pose a risk for strong/damaging gusts and possibly hail. Given a lack of stronger height falls until the nighttime hours and limited large-scale ascent with southward extent, severe thunderstorm coverage and evolution is a bit uncertain. Greater severe probabilities may become necessary in later outlooks if a corridor of greater potential becomes apparent as mesoscale details become better resolved. ...TN Valley to the Carolinas... A very moist and unstable airmass will be in place on Friday. Low-amplitude westerly flow will overspread the region, with large-scale ascent somewhat nebulous. There is some potential that a convectively enhanced vorticity maxima from remnant convection in the Day 2/Thu period will float through westerly flow. If this occurs, this could provide a focus for more organized convection in a weakly sheared environment. Uncertainty and the conditional nature of the threat at this time frame precludes severe probabilities, but strong storms are a possibility. ..Leitman.. 05/22/2024 Read more

MD 0886 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 283... FOR EAST-CENTRAL ARKANSAS INTO NORTHWESTERN MISSISSIPPI
Mesoscale Discussion 0886 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 AM CDT Wed May 22 2024 Areas affected...east-central Arkansas into northwestern Mississippi Concerning...Tornado Watch 283... Valid 220658Z - 220800Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 283 continues. SUMMARY...As isolated convection continues to gradually decrease in intensity, new WW is not anticipated downstream of the most vigorous, eastern Arkansas storms. DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows that the strongest storm, which earlier exhibited supercell characteristics, continuing to gradually decrease in intensity as it nears eastern fringes of Tornado Watch 283. While a narrow axis of mixed-layer CAPE around 1000 J/kg exists immediately along the Mississippi River, CAPE just to the east of the river diminishes rapidly, while at the same time capping increases with eastward extent. Given these factors, convective intensity is expected to continue to gradually diminish. While there are hints in the latest HRRR runs that weak convection developing westward as far west as southeastern Oklahoma could locally/gradually intensify, it appears at this time that risk will be limited/isolated, and thus not requiring WW consideration. As such, the current watch likely to be left to expire at 22/08Z. ..Goss.. 05/22/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK... LAT...LON 34539193 34749154 34959115 34899029 34459013 34009038 34269126 34539193 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0216 AM CDT Wed May 22 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHERN/EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND THE UPPER TRANS-PECOS... ...Synopsis... Increasing deep westerly flow within the base of a large-scale trough, along with a deepening lee surface cyclone over the High Plains, will result in critical surface wind speeds developing across portions of southern and eastern NM, and the Upper Trans-Pecos region of TX Thursday afternoon. This, combined with increasingly receptive fuels and widespread single-digit RH, has led to the introduction of a Critical area. ..Barnes.. 05/22/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0216 AM CDT Wed May 22 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHERN/EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND THE UPPER TRANS-PECOS... ...Synopsis... Increasing deep westerly flow within the base of a large-scale trough, along with a deepening lee surface cyclone over the High Plains, will result in critical surface wind speeds developing across portions of southern and eastern NM, and the Upper Trans-Pecos region of TX Thursday afternoon. This, combined with increasingly receptive fuels and widespread single-digit RH, has led to the introduction of a Critical area. ..Barnes.. 05/22/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0216 AM CDT Wed May 22 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHERN/EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND THE UPPER TRANS-PECOS... ...Synopsis... Increasing deep westerly flow within the base of a large-scale trough, along with a deepening lee surface cyclone over the High Plains, will result in critical surface wind speeds developing across portions of southern and eastern NM, and the Upper Trans-Pecos region of TX Thursday afternoon. This, combined with increasingly receptive fuels and widespread single-digit RH, has led to the introduction of a Critical area. ..Barnes.. 05/22/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0216 AM CDT Wed May 22 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHERN/EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND THE UPPER TRANS-PECOS... ...Synopsis... Increasing deep westerly flow within the base of a large-scale trough, along with a deepening lee surface cyclone over the High Plains, will result in critical surface wind speeds developing across portions of southern and eastern NM, and the Upper Trans-Pecos region of TX Thursday afternoon. This, combined with increasingly receptive fuels and widespread single-digit RH, has led to the introduction of a Critical area. ..Barnes.. 05/22/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0216 AM CDT Wed May 22 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHERN/EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND THE UPPER TRANS-PECOS... ...Synopsis... Increasing deep westerly flow within the base of a large-scale trough, along with a deepening lee surface cyclone over the High Plains, will result in critical surface wind speeds developing across portions of southern and eastern NM, and the Upper Trans-Pecos region of TX Thursday afternoon. This, combined with increasingly receptive fuels and widespread single-digit RH, has led to the introduction of a Critical area. ..Barnes.. 05/22/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0216 AM CDT Wed May 22 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHERN/EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND THE UPPER TRANS-PECOS... ...Synopsis... Increasing deep westerly flow within the base of a large-scale trough, along with a deepening lee surface cyclone over the High Plains, will result in critical surface wind speeds developing across portions of southern and eastern NM, and the Upper Trans-Pecos region of TX Thursday afternoon. This, combined with increasingly receptive fuels and widespread single-digit RH, has led to the introduction of a Critical area. ..Barnes.. 05/22/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0216 AM CDT Wed May 22 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHERN/EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND THE UPPER TRANS-PECOS... ...Synopsis... Increasing deep westerly flow within the base of a large-scale trough, along with a deepening lee surface cyclone over the High Plains, will result in critical surface wind speeds developing across portions of southern and eastern NM, and the Upper Trans-Pecos region of TX Thursday afternoon. This, combined with increasingly receptive fuels and widespread single-digit RH, has led to the introduction of a Critical area. ..Barnes.. 05/22/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0216 AM CDT Wed May 22 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHERN/EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND THE UPPER TRANS-PECOS... ...Synopsis... Increasing deep westerly flow within the base of a large-scale trough, along with a deepening lee surface cyclone over the High Plains, will result in critical surface wind speeds developing across portions of southern and eastern NM, and the Upper Trans-Pecos region of TX Thursday afternoon. This, combined with increasingly receptive fuels and widespread single-digit RH, has led to the introduction of a Critical area. ..Barnes.. 05/22/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0216 AM CDT Wed May 22 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHERN/EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND THE UPPER TRANS-PECOS... ...Synopsis... Increasing deep westerly flow within the base of a large-scale trough, along with a deepening lee surface cyclone over the High Plains, will result in critical surface wind speeds developing across portions of southern and eastern NM, and the Upper Trans-Pecos region of TX Thursday afternoon. This, combined with increasingly receptive fuels and widespread single-digit RH, has led to the introduction of a Critical area. ..Barnes.. 05/22/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

MD 0885 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF EASTERN WISCONSIN...NORTHWESTERN LOWER MICHIGAN AND EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN
Mesoscale Discussion 0885 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1145 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024 Areas affected...Parts of eastern Wisconsin...northwestern lower Michigan and eastern Upper Michigan Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 220445Z - 220645Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorm activity appears likely to continue weakening, but could still pose some risk for strong to severe gusts through 3-4 AM EDT. DISCUSSION...Although seasonably moist inflow with sizable CAPE is probably being maintained into lingering thunderstorm activity spreading into and through the upper Great Lakes region, convection is likely becoming elevated above cool, stable air over Lake Michigan. At the same time, with continuing slow diurnal cooling, a modestly moist boundary-layer over inland portions of lower Michigan and eastern upper Michigan remains only weakly unstable at best. While evaporative cooling in the sub-cloud layer may contribute to the downward transport of 50+ kt flow to the surface, severe weather potential appears likely to otherwise continue to diminish through the next few hours. As the supporting mid-level short wave trough pivots northward toward the Lake Superior vicinity, it appears the weakening leading line of convection could graze northwestern lower Michigan coastal areas and overspread eastern upper Michigan, while the weakening trailing line overspreads its outflow, near/east of the Green Bay vicinity toward the eastern upper peninsula of Michigan through 07-08Zz. ..Kerr.. 05/22/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...APX...GRR...MQT...GRB...MKX... LAT...LON 46998523 45938435 44018648 43798722 42788800 43548841 44618798 45968678 47068662 46998523 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0122 AM CDT Wed May 22 2024 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...Synopsis... A deeply mixed air mass is expected across most of NM and portions of eastern AZ this afternoon, where fuels continue to become more receptive, and relatively unidirectional westerly flow will reside in the base of a mid to upper trough. Westerly surface winds will increase to near critical magnitudes across these regions, as RH drops into the single digits. Some locally enhanced wind speeds may heighten fire spread potential across west central NM, but the duration of these should be limited such that a Critical area is not warranted. An Elevated area was considered for northeastern NV, where stronger flow and subsequently higher sustained surface wind speeds are expected. However, confidence in both critical RH developing and receptive fuels across this region is low. ..Barnes.. 05/22/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0122 AM CDT Wed May 22 2024 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...Synopsis... A deeply mixed air mass is expected across most of NM and portions of eastern AZ this afternoon, where fuels continue to become more receptive, and relatively unidirectional westerly flow will reside in the base of a mid to upper trough. Westerly surface winds will increase to near critical magnitudes across these regions, as RH drops into the single digits. Some locally enhanced wind speeds may heighten fire spread potential across west central NM, but the duration of these should be limited such that a Critical area is not warranted. An Elevated area was considered for northeastern NV, where stronger flow and subsequently higher sustained surface wind speeds are expected. However, confidence in both critical RH developing and receptive fuels across this region is low. ..Barnes.. 05/22/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0122 AM CDT Wed May 22 2024 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...Synopsis... A deeply mixed air mass is expected across most of NM and portions of eastern AZ this afternoon, where fuels continue to become more receptive, and relatively unidirectional westerly flow will reside in the base of a mid to upper trough. Westerly surface winds will increase to near critical magnitudes across these regions, as RH drops into the single digits. Some locally enhanced wind speeds may heighten fire spread potential across west central NM, but the duration of these should be limited such that a Critical area is not warranted. An Elevated area was considered for northeastern NV, where stronger flow and subsequently higher sustained surface wind speeds are expected. However, confidence in both critical RH developing and receptive fuels across this region is low. ..Barnes.. 05/22/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0122 AM CDT Wed May 22 2024 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...Synopsis... A deeply mixed air mass is expected across most of NM and portions of eastern AZ this afternoon, where fuels continue to become more receptive, and relatively unidirectional westerly flow will reside in the base of a mid to upper trough. Westerly surface winds will increase to near critical magnitudes across these regions, as RH drops into the single digits. Some locally enhanced wind speeds may heighten fire spread potential across west central NM, but the duration of these should be limited such that a Critical area is not warranted. An Elevated area was considered for northeastern NV, where stronger flow and subsequently higher sustained surface wind speeds are expected. However, confidence in both critical RH developing and receptive fuels across this region is low. ..Barnes.. 05/22/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more