Severe Storms

MD 1008 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 326...328...329... FOR SOUTHEASTERN ARKANSAS...NORTHERN LOUISIANA...WESTERN AND MIDDLE TENNESSEE...NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI...AND NORTHERN ALABAMA
Mesoscale Discussion 1008 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1252 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024 Areas affected...southeastern Arkansas...northern Louisiana...western and Middle Tennessee...northern Mississippi...and northern Alabama Concerning...Tornado Watch 326...328...329... Valid 270552Z - 270745Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 326, 328, 329 continues. SUMMARY...Strong/locally severe storms continue within a band from northern and western Tennessee west-southwestward to the Arklatex. Risk for locally damaging winds and hail, and a tornado or two, continues. Southeastward expansion of the convection into northern parts of Mississippi and Alabama will likely require new WW issuance. DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows a continues line of storms extending west-southwest to east-northeast across northern Middle and western Tennessee, which is sagging slowly southward. Meanwhile, a broken -- but more intense -- band of storms extends from western Tennessee southwestward to the Arklatex region. This convection is ongoing within a much more unstable environment (mixed-layer CAPE 3000 to 5000 J/kg across this area), and is a bit less shear-parallel than the more west-to-east Tennessee band of storms. As this stronger convection shifts gradually eastward over the next 1 to 2 hours, it will begin to impinge on eastern portions of WW 328 and, later, 329. Other, isolated storms are also developing across northwestern Alabama, south of the Middle Tennessee line of storms. Overall, with ample instability extending into northern Mississippi and -- to a lesser degree -- northern Alabama, new WW issuance will likely be needed soon over portions of northern Mississippi and northern Alabama. Southeastward extent of the risk should remain limited (into Georgia, and central portions of Alabama), given much weaker instability, and higher convective inhibition. ..Goss.. 05/27/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MRX...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV... LAT...LON 35638594 35418555 34698567 33858600 33218976 32479262 32779341 33719267 35488938 35708807 35828712 35638594 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0202 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions are expected again for Tuesday as a weak disturbance migrates across the southern High Plains. The very dry air mass currently in place across the region will remain in place at least through Tuesday. Low-amplitude shortwave ridging aloft will shift east through the day as a weak upper disturbance approaches from northwest Mexico. Although the surface mass response will be fairly modest, breezy westerly winds should be somewhat more widespread as compared to Monday with similar relative humidity and fuel conditions. As such, another day of slightly more widespread elevated conditions is expected across southern NM and portions of southwest/far West TX. Drier/windier solutions hint that localized critical conditions are possible in the lee of more prominent terrain features, but confidence in widespread critical conditions is too low to warrant additional highlights. ..Moore.. 05/27/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0202 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions are expected again for Tuesday as a weak disturbance migrates across the southern High Plains. The very dry air mass currently in place across the region will remain in place at least through Tuesday. Low-amplitude shortwave ridging aloft will shift east through the day as a weak upper disturbance approaches from northwest Mexico. Although the surface mass response will be fairly modest, breezy westerly winds should be somewhat more widespread as compared to Monday with similar relative humidity and fuel conditions. As such, another day of slightly more widespread elevated conditions is expected across southern NM and portions of southwest/far West TX. Drier/windier solutions hint that localized critical conditions are possible in the lee of more prominent terrain features, but confidence in widespread critical conditions is too low to warrant additional highlights. ..Moore.. 05/27/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0202 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions are expected again for Tuesday as a weak disturbance migrates across the southern High Plains. The very dry air mass currently in place across the region will remain in place at least through Tuesday. Low-amplitude shortwave ridging aloft will shift east through the day as a weak upper disturbance approaches from northwest Mexico. Although the surface mass response will be fairly modest, breezy westerly winds should be somewhat more widespread as compared to Monday with similar relative humidity and fuel conditions. As such, another day of slightly more widespread elevated conditions is expected across southern NM and portions of southwest/far West TX. Drier/windier solutions hint that localized critical conditions are possible in the lee of more prominent terrain features, but confidence in widespread critical conditions is too low to warrant additional highlights. ..Moore.. 05/27/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0202 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions are expected again for Tuesday as a weak disturbance migrates across the southern High Plains. The very dry air mass currently in place across the region will remain in place at least through Tuesday. Low-amplitude shortwave ridging aloft will shift east through the day as a weak upper disturbance approaches from northwest Mexico. Although the surface mass response will be fairly modest, breezy westerly winds should be somewhat more widespread as compared to Monday with similar relative humidity and fuel conditions. As such, another day of slightly more widespread elevated conditions is expected across southern NM and portions of southwest/far West TX. Drier/windier solutions hint that localized critical conditions are possible in the lee of more prominent terrain features, but confidence in widespread critical conditions is too low to warrant additional highlights. ..Moore.. 05/27/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0202 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions are expected again for Tuesday as a weak disturbance migrates across the southern High Plains. The very dry air mass currently in place across the region will remain in place at least through Tuesday. Low-amplitude shortwave ridging aloft will shift east through the day as a weak upper disturbance approaches from northwest Mexico. Although the surface mass response will be fairly modest, breezy westerly winds should be somewhat more widespread as compared to Monday with similar relative humidity and fuel conditions. As such, another day of slightly more widespread elevated conditions is expected across southern NM and portions of southwest/far West TX. Drier/windier solutions hint that localized critical conditions are possible in the lee of more prominent terrain features, but confidence in widespread critical conditions is too low to warrant additional highlights. ..Moore.. 05/27/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0202 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions are expected again for Tuesday as a weak disturbance migrates across the southern High Plains. The very dry air mass currently in place across the region will remain in place at least through Tuesday. Low-amplitude shortwave ridging aloft will shift east through the day as a weak upper disturbance approaches from northwest Mexico. Although the surface mass response will be fairly modest, breezy westerly winds should be somewhat more widespread as compared to Monday with similar relative humidity and fuel conditions. As such, another day of slightly more widespread elevated conditions is expected across southern NM and portions of southwest/far West TX. Drier/windier solutions hint that localized critical conditions are possible in the lee of more prominent terrain features, but confidence in widespread critical conditions is too low to warrant additional highlights. ..Moore.. 05/27/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0202 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions are expected again for Tuesday as a weak disturbance migrates across the southern High Plains. The very dry air mass currently in place across the region will remain in place at least through Tuesday. Low-amplitude shortwave ridging aloft will shift east through the day as a weak upper disturbance approaches from northwest Mexico. Although the surface mass response will be fairly modest, breezy westerly winds should be somewhat more widespread as compared to Monday with similar relative humidity and fuel conditions. As such, another day of slightly more widespread elevated conditions is expected across southern NM and portions of southwest/far West TX. Drier/windier solutions hint that localized critical conditions are possible in the lee of more prominent terrain features, but confidence in widespread critical conditions is too low to warrant additional highlights. ..Moore.. 05/27/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0202 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions are expected again for Tuesday as a weak disturbance migrates across the southern High Plains. The very dry air mass currently in place across the region will remain in place at least through Tuesday. Low-amplitude shortwave ridging aloft will shift east through the day as a weak upper disturbance approaches from northwest Mexico. Although the surface mass response will be fairly modest, breezy westerly winds should be somewhat more widespread as compared to Monday with similar relative humidity and fuel conditions. As such, another day of slightly more widespread elevated conditions is expected across southern NM and portions of southwest/far West TX. Drier/windier solutions hint that localized critical conditions are possible in the lee of more prominent terrain features, but confidence in widespread critical conditions is too low to warrant additional highlights. ..Moore.. 05/27/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0202 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions are expected again for Tuesday as a weak disturbance migrates across the southern High Plains. The very dry air mass currently in place across the region will remain in place at least through Tuesday. Low-amplitude shortwave ridging aloft will shift east through the day as a weak upper disturbance approaches from northwest Mexico. Although the surface mass response will be fairly modest, breezy westerly winds should be somewhat more widespread as compared to Monday with similar relative humidity and fuel conditions. As such, another day of slightly more widespread elevated conditions is expected across southern NM and portions of southwest/far West TX. Drier/windier solutions hint that localized critical conditions are possible in the lee of more prominent terrain features, but confidence in widespread critical conditions is too low to warrant additional highlights. ..Moore.. 05/27/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0202 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions are expected again for Tuesday as a weak disturbance migrates across the southern High Plains. The very dry air mass currently in place across the region will remain in place at least through Tuesday. Low-amplitude shortwave ridging aloft will shift east through the day as a weak upper disturbance approaches from northwest Mexico. Although the surface mass response will be fairly modest, breezy westerly winds should be somewhat more widespread as compared to Monday with similar relative humidity and fuel conditions. As such, another day of slightly more widespread elevated conditions is expected across southern NM and portions of southwest/far West TX. Drier/windier solutions hint that localized critical conditions are possible in the lee of more prominent terrain features, but confidence in widespread critical conditions is too low to warrant additional highlights. ..Moore.. 05/27/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0202 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions are expected again for Tuesday as a weak disturbance migrates across the southern High Plains. The very dry air mass currently in place across the region will remain in place at least through Tuesday. Low-amplitude shortwave ridging aloft will shift east through the day as a weak upper disturbance approaches from northwest Mexico. Although the surface mass response will be fairly modest, breezy westerly winds should be somewhat more widespread as compared to Monday with similar relative humidity and fuel conditions. As such, another day of slightly more widespread elevated conditions is expected across southern NM and portions of southwest/far West TX. Drier/windier solutions hint that localized critical conditions are possible in the lee of more prominent terrain features, but confidence in widespread critical conditions is too low to warrant additional highlights. ..Moore.. 05/27/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0202 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions are expected again for Tuesday as a weak disturbance migrates across the southern High Plains. The very dry air mass currently in place across the region will remain in place at least through Tuesday. Low-amplitude shortwave ridging aloft will shift east through the day as a weak upper disturbance approaches from northwest Mexico. Although the surface mass response will be fairly modest, breezy westerly winds should be somewhat more widespread as compared to Monday with similar relative humidity and fuel conditions. As such, another day of slightly more widespread elevated conditions is expected across southern NM and portions of southwest/far West TX. Drier/windier solutions hint that localized critical conditions are possible in the lee of more prominent terrain features, but confidence in widespread critical conditions is too low to warrant additional highlights. ..Moore.. 05/27/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0202 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions are expected again for Tuesday as a weak disturbance migrates across the southern High Plains. The very dry air mass currently in place across the region will remain in place at least through Tuesday. Low-amplitude shortwave ridging aloft will shift east through the day as a weak upper disturbance approaches from northwest Mexico. Although the surface mass response will be fairly modest, breezy westerly winds should be somewhat more widespread as compared to Monday with similar relative humidity and fuel conditions. As such, another day of slightly more widespread elevated conditions is expected across southern NM and portions of southwest/far West TX. Drier/windier solutions hint that localized critical conditions are possible in the lee of more prominent terrain features, but confidence in widespread critical conditions is too low to warrant additional highlights. ..Moore.. 05/27/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions are expected this afternoon across parts of southern New Mexico and far West Texas. Latest fuel analyses show that the driest fuels reside over southeast NM into far West TX where multiple days of very dry conditions (single-digit RH minimums) have allowed for substantial curing of 10 and 100-hour fuels. Despite the favorable fuel conditions, upper-level ridging combined with weakening mid-level flow will yield weaker surface winds compared to previous days. Westerly winds are forecast to generally reach 10-15 mph for most locations, but a swath of southern NM/far West TX should see a few hours of winds closer to 15 mph (occasionally gusting to near 20 mph) that will support elevated fire weather conditions given forecast afternoon RH minimums between 5-15%. ..Moore.. 05/27/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions are expected this afternoon across parts of southern New Mexico and far West Texas. Latest fuel analyses show that the driest fuels reside over southeast NM into far West TX where multiple days of very dry conditions (single-digit RH minimums) have allowed for substantial curing of 10 and 100-hour fuels. Despite the favorable fuel conditions, upper-level ridging combined with weakening mid-level flow will yield weaker surface winds compared to previous days. Westerly winds are forecast to generally reach 10-15 mph for most locations, but a swath of southern NM/far West TX should see a few hours of winds closer to 15 mph (occasionally gusting to near 20 mph) that will support elevated fire weather conditions given forecast afternoon RH minimums between 5-15%. ..Moore.. 05/27/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions are expected this afternoon across parts of southern New Mexico and far West Texas. Latest fuel analyses show that the driest fuels reside over southeast NM into far West TX where multiple days of very dry conditions (single-digit RH minimums) have allowed for substantial curing of 10 and 100-hour fuels. Despite the favorable fuel conditions, upper-level ridging combined with weakening mid-level flow will yield weaker surface winds compared to previous days. Westerly winds are forecast to generally reach 10-15 mph for most locations, but a swath of southern NM/far West TX should see a few hours of winds closer to 15 mph (occasionally gusting to near 20 mph) that will support elevated fire weather conditions given forecast afternoon RH minimums between 5-15%. ..Moore.. 05/27/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions are expected this afternoon across parts of southern New Mexico and far West Texas. Latest fuel analyses show that the driest fuels reside over southeast NM into far West TX where multiple days of very dry conditions (single-digit RH minimums) have allowed for substantial curing of 10 and 100-hour fuels. Despite the favorable fuel conditions, upper-level ridging combined with weakening mid-level flow will yield weaker surface winds compared to previous days. Westerly winds are forecast to generally reach 10-15 mph for most locations, but a swath of southern NM/far West TX should see a few hours of winds closer to 15 mph (occasionally gusting to near 20 mph) that will support elevated fire weather conditions given forecast afternoon RH minimums between 5-15%. ..Moore.. 05/27/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions are expected this afternoon across parts of southern New Mexico and far West Texas. Latest fuel analyses show that the driest fuels reside over southeast NM into far West TX where multiple days of very dry conditions (single-digit RH minimums) have allowed for substantial curing of 10 and 100-hour fuels. Despite the favorable fuel conditions, upper-level ridging combined with weakening mid-level flow will yield weaker surface winds compared to previous days. Westerly winds are forecast to generally reach 10-15 mph for most locations, but a swath of southern NM/far West TX should see a few hours of winds closer to 15 mph (occasionally gusting to near 20 mph) that will support elevated fire weather conditions given forecast afternoon RH minimums between 5-15%. ..Moore.. 05/27/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions are expected this afternoon across parts of southern New Mexico and far West Texas. Latest fuel analyses show that the driest fuels reside over southeast NM into far West TX where multiple days of very dry conditions (single-digit RH minimums) have allowed for substantial curing of 10 and 100-hour fuels. Despite the favorable fuel conditions, upper-level ridging combined with weakening mid-level flow will yield weaker surface winds compared to previous days. Westerly winds are forecast to generally reach 10-15 mph for most locations, but a swath of southern NM/far West TX should see a few hours of winds closer to 15 mph (occasionally gusting to near 20 mph) that will support elevated fire weather conditions given forecast afternoon RH minimums between 5-15%. ..Moore.. 05/27/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more