Severe Storms

MD 1812 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH NEEDED SOON FOR NORTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...WESTERN AND CENTRAL MINNESOTA
Mesoscale Discussion 1812 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0425 PM CDT Sun Jul 27 2025 Areas affected...Northeastern South Dakota...Western and Central Minnesota Concerning...Severe potential...Watch needed soon Valid 272125Z - 272200Z Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent SUMMARY...A severe threat will likely continue to develop over the next couple of hours from northeastern South Dakota into western and central Minnesota. Large hail and wind damage will be the primary threats. Weather watch issuance will be needed soon. DISCUSSION...The latest radar imagery shows a small cluster of strong to severe thunderstorms over far western Minnesota. This activity is being supported by a subtle shortwave trough, evident on water vapor imagery. The storms are located to the northeast of a bullseye of very strong instability. Across northeastern South Dakota, MLCAPE is estimated to be in the 5000 to 6000 J/kg range. Further east, the airmass is less unstable. As low-level flow increases late this afternoon and early this evening, convective coverage will gradually increase. In addition to the instability, regional WSR-88D VWPs show moderate deep-layer shear across this unstable airmass. 0-6 km shear is estimated by the RAP to be in the 35 to 40 knot range, which will likely support supercell development. Supercells will have potential for large hail and wind damage. A brief tornado will be possible with most of intense of storms. In addition, an organized line segment will also be possible. This mode would be more favorable for damaging wind gusts. ..Broyles/Mosier.. 07/27/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...FSD...ABR... LAT...LON 46129592 46269508 46209410 45939378 45509390 44359557 43639603 43099661 42879752 42999800 43709852 44759883 45359839 45889704 46129592 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more

MD 1811 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR CENTRAL/EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...SOUTHERN VIRGINIA
Mesoscale Discussion 1811 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0257 PM CDT Sun Jul 27 2025 Areas affected...central/eastern North Carolina...southern Virginia Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 271957Z - 272200Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorm activity will promote a few instances of strong to severe wind this afternoon. DISCUSSION...Scattered thunderstorm activity has increased in coverage across portions of eastern North Carolina this afternoon. The air mass in this region is very hot and unstable, but deep layer shear for a more organized severe threat remains weak. Given the deep moisture and strong instability, a few wet downbursts may produce some instances of strong to severe wind. Overall, this threat will remain too isolated for watch issuance. ..Thornton/Guyer.. 07/27/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM... LAT...LON 35687819 36527731 36627645 36137555 35577535 34837609 34627703 34487763 34497816 34947850 35687819 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH Read more

WW 0548 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0548 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

No watches are valid as of Sun Jul 27 21:27:01 UTC 2025.

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0406 PM CDT Sun Jul 27 2025 Valid 291200Z - 041200Z Broad ridging over the central US will continue to strengthen through much of the extended forecast period amplifying the upper-level flow pattern. As a result, broad troughing will deepen over the western US, allowing an increase in mid-level moisture. An active period of thunderstorms is expected from the Great basin to the Northwest through Midweek. Dry lightning and occasional dry/breezy conditions are likely. ...Northern Great Basin and Northwest... The broad troughing over the western US will continue to deepen as prominent ridging to the east further amplifies the flow pattern aloft. Within the broad troughing, several well-defined perturbations will approach the northern Great Basin and Northwest early next week. Starting late D2/Monday through D3/Tuesday, a shortwave trough will bring an initial surge of mid-level moisture northward across northern CA, NV into southern OR/ID. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are likely along the Sierras and into the southern Cascades. With PWATs of 0.7-1 inches, relatively poor precipitation efficiency is expected given steep lapse rates. Isolated dry lightning is possible with these storms. Greater lightning chances continue D4/Wed into D5/Thursday as a second shortwave is expected to intensify across the Great Basin and Northwest. More widespread storm coverage is expected as moisture expands northward across much of the Cascades and northern Great Basin. MUCAPE near 1000 J/kg and strengthening meridional flow aloft could support some stronger storms with greater longevity. The exact convective evolution and areas of highest coverage remain unclear given the potential for lingering cloud cover and prior convection. However, scattered to numerous storms overspreading dry fuels beds will very likely pose a risk for lightning ignitions over the coming days. Expect further refinements in the 10% IsoDryT areas as convective details are resolved. ...Eastern Great Basin... To the south of the main shortwave trough, slight enhancement of south/southwesterly flow aloft could support stronger surface winds and low RH across parts of the eastern Great Basin and Western Slope D4/Wednesday and beyond. While uncertainty remains given model differences in timing/intensity of the upper-level system, elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions are possible through the end of the week. ..Lyons.. 07/27/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0406 PM CDT Sun Jul 27 2025 Valid 291200Z - 041200Z Broad ridging over the central US will continue to strengthen through much of the extended forecast period amplifying the upper-level flow pattern. As a result, broad troughing will deepen over the western US, allowing an increase in mid-level moisture. An active period of thunderstorms is expected from the Great basin to the Northwest through Midweek. Dry lightning and occasional dry/breezy conditions are likely. ...Northern Great Basin and Northwest... The broad troughing over the western US will continue to deepen as prominent ridging to the east further amplifies the flow pattern aloft. Within the broad troughing, several well-defined perturbations will approach the northern Great Basin and Northwest early next week. Starting late D2/Monday through D3/Tuesday, a shortwave trough will bring an initial surge of mid-level moisture northward across northern CA, NV into southern OR/ID. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are likely along the Sierras and into the southern Cascades. With PWATs of 0.7-1 inches, relatively poor precipitation efficiency is expected given steep lapse rates. Isolated dry lightning is possible with these storms. Greater lightning chances continue D4/Wed into D5/Thursday as a second shortwave is expected to intensify across the Great Basin and Northwest. More widespread storm coverage is expected as moisture expands northward across much of the Cascades and northern Great Basin. MUCAPE near 1000 J/kg and strengthening meridional flow aloft could support some stronger storms with greater longevity. The exact convective evolution and areas of highest coverage remain unclear given the potential for lingering cloud cover and prior convection. However, scattered to numerous storms overspreading dry fuels beds will very likely pose a risk for lightning ignitions over the coming days. Expect further refinements in the 10% IsoDryT areas as convective details are resolved. ...Eastern Great Basin... To the south of the main shortwave trough, slight enhancement of south/southwesterly flow aloft could support stronger surface winds and low RH across parts of the eastern Great Basin and Western Slope D4/Wednesday and beyond. While uncertainty remains given model differences in timing/intensity of the upper-level system, elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions are possible through the end of the week. ..Lyons.. 07/27/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0406 PM CDT Sun Jul 27 2025 Valid 291200Z - 041200Z Broad ridging over the central US will continue to strengthen through much of the extended forecast period amplifying the upper-level flow pattern. As a result, broad troughing will deepen over the western US, allowing an increase in mid-level moisture. An active period of thunderstorms is expected from the Great basin to the Northwest through Midweek. Dry lightning and occasional dry/breezy conditions are likely. ...Northern Great Basin and Northwest... The broad troughing over the western US will continue to deepen as prominent ridging to the east further amplifies the flow pattern aloft. Within the broad troughing, several well-defined perturbations will approach the northern Great Basin and Northwest early next week. Starting late D2/Monday through D3/Tuesday, a shortwave trough will bring an initial surge of mid-level moisture northward across northern CA, NV into southern OR/ID. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are likely along the Sierras and into the southern Cascades. With PWATs of 0.7-1 inches, relatively poor precipitation efficiency is expected given steep lapse rates. Isolated dry lightning is possible with these storms. Greater lightning chances continue D4/Wed into D5/Thursday as a second shortwave is expected to intensify across the Great Basin and Northwest. More widespread storm coverage is expected as moisture expands northward across much of the Cascades and northern Great Basin. MUCAPE near 1000 J/kg and strengthening meridional flow aloft could support some stronger storms with greater longevity. The exact convective evolution and areas of highest coverage remain unclear given the potential for lingering cloud cover and prior convection. However, scattered to numerous storms overspreading dry fuels beds will very likely pose a risk for lightning ignitions over the coming days. Expect further refinements in the 10% IsoDryT areas as convective details are resolved. ...Eastern Great Basin... To the south of the main shortwave trough, slight enhancement of south/southwesterly flow aloft could support stronger surface winds and low RH across parts of the eastern Great Basin and Western Slope D4/Wednesday and beyond. While uncertainty remains given model differences in timing/intensity of the upper-level system, elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions are possible through the end of the week. ..Lyons.. 07/27/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0406 PM CDT Sun Jul 27 2025 Valid 291200Z - 041200Z Broad ridging over the central US will continue to strengthen through much of the extended forecast period amplifying the upper-level flow pattern. As a result, broad troughing will deepen over the western US, allowing an increase in mid-level moisture. An active period of thunderstorms is expected from the Great basin to the Northwest through Midweek. Dry lightning and occasional dry/breezy conditions are likely. ...Northern Great Basin and Northwest... The broad troughing over the western US will continue to deepen as prominent ridging to the east further amplifies the flow pattern aloft. Within the broad troughing, several well-defined perturbations will approach the northern Great Basin and Northwest early next week. Starting late D2/Monday through D3/Tuesday, a shortwave trough will bring an initial surge of mid-level moisture northward across northern CA, NV into southern OR/ID. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are likely along the Sierras and into the southern Cascades. With PWATs of 0.7-1 inches, relatively poor precipitation efficiency is expected given steep lapse rates. Isolated dry lightning is possible with these storms. Greater lightning chances continue D4/Wed into D5/Thursday as a second shortwave is expected to intensify across the Great Basin and Northwest. More widespread storm coverage is expected as moisture expands northward across much of the Cascades and northern Great Basin. MUCAPE near 1000 J/kg and strengthening meridional flow aloft could support some stronger storms with greater longevity. The exact convective evolution and areas of highest coverage remain unclear given the potential for lingering cloud cover and prior convection. However, scattered to numerous storms overspreading dry fuels beds will very likely pose a risk for lightning ignitions over the coming days. Expect further refinements in the 10% IsoDryT areas as convective details are resolved. ...Eastern Great Basin... To the south of the main shortwave trough, slight enhancement of south/southwesterly flow aloft could support stronger surface winds and low RH across parts of the eastern Great Basin and Western Slope D4/Wednesday and beyond. While uncertainty remains given model differences in timing/intensity of the upper-level system, elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions are possible through the end of the week. ..Lyons.. 07/27/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0406 PM CDT Sun Jul 27 2025 Valid 291200Z - 041200Z Broad ridging over the central US will continue to strengthen through much of the extended forecast period amplifying the upper-level flow pattern. As a result, broad troughing will deepen over the western US, allowing an increase in mid-level moisture. An active period of thunderstorms is expected from the Great basin to the Northwest through Midweek. Dry lightning and occasional dry/breezy conditions are likely. ...Northern Great Basin and Northwest... The broad troughing over the western US will continue to deepen as prominent ridging to the east further amplifies the flow pattern aloft. Within the broad troughing, several well-defined perturbations will approach the northern Great Basin and Northwest early next week. Starting late D2/Monday through D3/Tuesday, a shortwave trough will bring an initial surge of mid-level moisture northward across northern CA, NV into southern OR/ID. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are likely along the Sierras and into the southern Cascades. With PWATs of 0.7-1 inches, relatively poor precipitation efficiency is expected given steep lapse rates. Isolated dry lightning is possible with these storms. Greater lightning chances continue D4/Wed into D5/Thursday as a second shortwave is expected to intensify across the Great Basin and Northwest. More widespread storm coverage is expected as moisture expands northward across much of the Cascades and northern Great Basin. MUCAPE near 1000 J/kg and strengthening meridional flow aloft could support some stronger storms with greater longevity. The exact convective evolution and areas of highest coverage remain unclear given the potential for lingering cloud cover and prior convection. However, scattered to numerous storms overspreading dry fuels beds will very likely pose a risk for lightning ignitions over the coming days. Expect further refinements in the 10% IsoDryT areas as convective details are resolved. ...Eastern Great Basin... To the south of the main shortwave trough, slight enhancement of south/southwesterly flow aloft could support stronger surface winds and low RH across parts of the eastern Great Basin and Western Slope D4/Wednesday and beyond. While uncertainty remains given model differences in timing/intensity of the upper-level system, elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions are possible through the end of the week. ..Lyons.. 07/27/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0406 PM CDT Sun Jul 27 2025 Valid 291200Z - 041200Z Broad ridging over the central US will continue to strengthen through much of the extended forecast period amplifying the upper-level flow pattern. As a result, broad troughing will deepen over the western US, allowing an increase in mid-level moisture. An active period of thunderstorms is expected from the Great basin to the Northwest through Midweek. Dry lightning and occasional dry/breezy conditions are likely. ...Northern Great Basin and Northwest... The broad troughing over the western US will continue to deepen as prominent ridging to the east further amplifies the flow pattern aloft. Within the broad troughing, several well-defined perturbations will approach the northern Great Basin and Northwest early next week. Starting late D2/Monday through D3/Tuesday, a shortwave trough will bring an initial surge of mid-level moisture northward across northern CA, NV into southern OR/ID. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are likely along the Sierras and into the southern Cascades. With PWATs of 0.7-1 inches, relatively poor precipitation efficiency is expected given steep lapse rates. Isolated dry lightning is possible with these storms. Greater lightning chances continue D4/Wed into D5/Thursday as a second shortwave is expected to intensify across the Great Basin and Northwest. More widespread storm coverage is expected as moisture expands northward across much of the Cascades and northern Great Basin. MUCAPE near 1000 J/kg and strengthening meridional flow aloft could support some stronger storms with greater longevity. The exact convective evolution and areas of highest coverage remain unclear given the potential for lingering cloud cover and prior convection. However, scattered to numerous storms overspreading dry fuels beds will very likely pose a risk for lightning ignitions over the coming days. Expect further refinements in the 10% IsoDryT areas as convective details are resolved. ...Eastern Great Basin... To the south of the main shortwave trough, slight enhancement of south/southwesterly flow aloft could support stronger surface winds and low RH across parts of the eastern Great Basin and Western Slope D4/Wednesday and beyond. While uncertainty remains given model differences in timing/intensity of the upper-level system, elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions are possible through the end of the week. ..Lyons.. 07/27/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0406 PM CDT Sun Jul 27 2025 Valid 291200Z - 041200Z Broad ridging over the central US will continue to strengthen through much of the extended forecast period amplifying the upper-level flow pattern. As a result, broad troughing will deepen over the western US, allowing an increase in mid-level moisture. An active period of thunderstorms is expected from the Great basin to the Northwest through Midweek. Dry lightning and occasional dry/breezy conditions are likely. ...Northern Great Basin and Northwest... The broad troughing over the western US will continue to deepen as prominent ridging to the east further amplifies the flow pattern aloft. Within the broad troughing, several well-defined perturbations will approach the northern Great Basin and Northwest early next week. Starting late D2/Monday through D3/Tuesday, a shortwave trough will bring an initial surge of mid-level moisture northward across northern CA, NV into southern OR/ID. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are likely along the Sierras and into the southern Cascades. With PWATs of 0.7-1 inches, relatively poor precipitation efficiency is expected given steep lapse rates. Isolated dry lightning is possible with these storms. Greater lightning chances continue D4/Wed into D5/Thursday as a second shortwave is expected to intensify across the Great Basin and Northwest. More widespread storm coverage is expected as moisture expands northward across much of the Cascades and northern Great Basin. MUCAPE near 1000 J/kg and strengthening meridional flow aloft could support some stronger storms with greater longevity. The exact convective evolution and areas of highest coverage remain unclear given the potential for lingering cloud cover and prior convection. However, scattered to numerous storms overspreading dry fuels beds will very likely pose a risk for lightning ignitions over the coming days. Expect further refinements in the 10% IsoDryT areas as convective details are resolved. ...Eastern Great Basin... To the south of the main shortwave trough, slight enhancement of south/southwesterly flow aloft could support stronger surface winds and low RH across parts of the eastern Great Basin and Western Slope D4/Wednesday and beyond. While uncertainty remains given model differences in timing/intensity of the upper-level system, elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions are possible through the end of the week. ..Lyons.. 07/27/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0406 PM CDT Sun Jul 27 2025 Valid 291200Z - 041200Z Broad ridging over the central US will continue to strengthen through much of the extended forecast period amplifying the upper-level flow pattern. As a result, broad troughing will deepen over the western US, allowing an increase in mid-level moisture. An active period of thunderstorms is expected from the Great basin to the Northwest through Midweek. Dry lightning and occasional dry/breezy conditions are likely. ...Northern Great Basin and Northwest... The broad troughing over the western US will continue to deepen as prominent ridging to the east further amplifies the flow pattern aloft. Within the broad troughing, several well-defined perturbations will approach the northern Great Basin and Northwest early next week. Starting late D2/Monday through D3/Tuesday, a shortwave trough will bring an initial surge of mid-level moisture northward across northern CA, NV into southern OR/ID. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are likely along the Sierras and into the southern Cascades. With PWATs of 0.7-1 inches, relatively poor precipitation efficiency is expected given steep lapse rates. Isolated dry lightning is possible with these storms. Greater lightning chances continue D4/Wed into D5/Thursday as a second shortwave is expected to intensify across the Great Basin and Northwest. More widespread storm coverage is expected as moisture expands northward across much of the Cascades and northern Great Basin. MUCAPE near 1000 J/kg and strengthening meridional flow aloft could support some stronger storms with greater longevity. The exact convective evolution and areas of highest coverage remain unclear given the potential for lingering cloud cover and prior convection. However, scattered to numerous storms overspreading dry fuels beds will very likely pose a risk for lightning ignitions over the coming days. Expect further refinements in the 10% IsoDryT areas as convective details are resolved. ...Eastern Great Basin... To the south of the main shortwave trough, slight enhancement of south/southwesterly flow aloft could support stronger surface winds and low RH across parts of the eastern Great Basin and Western Slope D4/Wednesday and beyond. While uncertainty remains given model differences in timing/intensity of the upper-level system, elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions are possible through the end of the week. ..Lyons.. 07/27/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0406 PM CDT Sun Jul 27 2025 Valid 291200Z - 041200Z Broad ridging over the central US will continue to strengthen through much of the extended forecast period amplifying the upper-level flow pattern. As a result, broad troughing will deepen over the western US, allowing an increase in mid-level moisture. An active period of thunderstorms is expected from the Great basin to the Northwest through Midweek. Dry lightning and occasional dry/breezy conditions are likely. ...Northern Great Basin and Northwest... The broad troughing over the western US will continue to deepen as prominent ridging to the east further amplifies the flow pattern aloft. Within the broad troughing, several well-defined perturbations will approach the northern Great Basin and Northwest early next week. Starting late D2/Monday through D3/Tuesday, a shortwave trough will bring an initial surge of mid-level moisture northward across northern CA, NV into southern OR/ID. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are likely along the Sierras and into the southern Cascades. With PWATs of 0.7-1 inches, relatively poor precipitation efficiency is expected given steep lapse rates. Isolated dry lightning is possible with these storms. Greater lightning chances continue D4/Wed into D5/Thursday as a second shortwave is expected to intensify across the Great Basin and Northwest. More widespread storm coverage is expected as moisture expands northward across much of the Cascades and northern Great Basin. MUCAPE near 1000 J/kg and strengthening meridional flow aloft could support some stronger storms with greater longevity. The exact convective evolution and areas of highest coverage remain unclear given the potential for lingering cloud cover and prior convection. However, scattered to numerous storms overspreading dry fuels beds will very likely pose a risk for lightning ignitions over the coming days. Expect further refinements in the 10% IsoDryT areas as convective details are resolved. ...Eastern Great Basin... To the south of the main shortwave trough, slight enhancement of south/southwesterly flow aloft could support stronger surface winds and low RH across parts of the eastern Great Basin and Western Slope D4/Wednesday and beyond. While uncertainty remains given model differences in timing/intensity of the upper-level system, elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions are possible through the end of the week. ..Lyons.. 07/27/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0406 PM CDT Sun Jul 27 2025 Valid 291200Z - 041200Z Broad ridging over the central US will continue to strengthen through much of the extended forecast period amplifying the upper-level flow pattern. As a result, broad troughing will deepen over the western US, allowing an increase in mid-level moisture. An active period of thunderstorms is expected from the Great basin to the Northwest through Midweek. Dry lightning and occasional dry/breezy conditions are likely. ...Northern Great Basin and Northwest... The broad troughing over the western US will continue to deepen as prominent ridging to the east further amplifies the flow pattern aloft. Within the broad troughing, several well-defined perturbations will approach the northern Great Basin and Northwest early next week. Starting late D2/Monday through D3/Tuesday, a shortwave trough will bring an initial surge of mid-level moisture northward across northern CA, NV into southern OR/ID. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are likely along the Sierras and into the southern Cascades. With PWATs of 0.7-1 inches, relatively poor precipitation efficiency is expected given steep lapse rates. Isolated dry lightning is possible with these storms. Greater lightning chances continue D4/Wed into D5/Thursday as a second shortwave is expected to intensify across the Great Basin and Northwest. More widespread storm coverage is expected as moisture expands northward across much of the Cascades and northern Great Basin. MUCAPE near 1000 J/kg and strengthening meridional flow aloft could support some stronger storms with greater longevity. The exact convective evolution and areas of highest coverage remain unclear given the potential for lingering cloud cover and prior convection. However, scattered to numerous storms overspreading dry fuels beds will very likely pose a risk for lightning ignitions over the coming days. Expect further refinements in the 10% IsoDryT areas as convective details are resolved. ...Eastern Great Basin... To the south of the main shortwave trough, slight enhancement of south/southwesterly flow aloft could support stronger surface winds and low RH across parts of the eastern Great Basin and Western Slope D4/Wednesday and beyond. While uncertainty remains given model differences in timing/intensity of the upper-level system, elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions are possible through the end of the week. ..Lyons.. 07/27/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0406 PM CDT Sun Jul 27 2025 Valid 291200Z - 041200Z Broad ridging over the central US will continue to strengthen through much of the extended forecast period amplifying the upper-level flow pattern. As a result, broad troughing will deepen over the western US, allowing an increase in mid-level moisture. An active period of thunderstorms is expected from the Great basin to the Northwest through Midweek. Dry lightning and occasional dry/breezy conditions are likely. ...Northern Great Basin and Northwest... The broad troughing over the western US will continue to deepen as prominent ridging to the east further amplifies the flow pattern aloft. Within the broad troughing, several well-defined perturbations will approach the northern Great Basin and Northwest early next week. Starting late D2/Monday through D3/Tuesday, a shortwave trough will bring an initial surge of mid-level moisture northward across northern CA, NV into southern OR/ID. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are likely along the Sierras and into the southern Cascades. With PWATs of 0.7-1 inches, relatively poor precipitation efficiency is expected given steep lapse rates. Isolated dry lightning is possible with these storms. Greater lightning chances continue D4/Wed into D5/Thursday as a second shortwave is expected to intensify across the Great Basin and Northwest. More widespread storm coverage is expected as moisture expands northward across much of the Cascades and northern Great Basin. MUCAPE near 1000 J/kg and strengthening meridional flow aloft could support some stronger storms with greater longevity. The exact convective evolution and areas of highest coverage remain unclear given the potential for lingering cloud cover and prior convection. However, scattered to numerous storms overspreading dry fuels beds will very likely pose a risk for lightning ignitions over the coming days. Expect further refinements in the 10% IsoDryT areas as convective details are resolved. ...Eastern Great Basin... To the south of the main shortwave trough, slight enhancement of south/southwesterly flow aloft could support stronger surface winds and low RH across parts of the eastern Great Basin and Western Slope D4/Wednesday and beyond. While uncertainty remains given model differences in timing/intensity of the upper-level system, elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions are possible through the end of the week. ..Lyons.. 07/27/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0406 PM CDT Sun Jul 27 2025 Valid 291200Z - 041200Z Broad ridging over the central US will continue to strengthen through much of the extended forecast period amplifying the upper-level flow pattern. As a result, broad troughing will deepen over the western US, allowing an increase in mid-level moisture. An active period of thunderstorms is expected from the Great basin to the Northwest through Midweek. Dry lightning and occasional dry/breezy conditions are likely. ...Northern Great Basin and Northwest... The broad troughing over the western US will continue to deepen as prominent ridging to the east further amplifies the flow pattern aloft. Within the broad troughing, several well-defined perturbations will approach the northern Great Basin and Northwest early next week. Starting late D2/Monday through D3/Tuesday, a shortwave trough will bring an initial surge of mid-level moisture northward across northern CA, NV into southern OR/ID. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are likely along the Sierras and into the southern Cascades. With PWATs of 0.7-1 inches, relatively poor precipitation efficiency is expected given steep lapse rates. Isolated dry lightning is possible with these storms. Greater lightning chances continue D4/Wed into D5/Thursday as a second shortwave is expected to intensify across the Great Basin and Northwest. More widespread storm coverage is expected as moisture expands northward across much of the Cascades and northern Great Basin. MUCAPE near 1000 J/kg and strengthening meridional flow aloft could support some stronger storms with greater longevity. The exact convective evolution and areas of highest coverage remain unclear given the potential for lingering cloud cover and prior convection. However, scattered to numerous storms overspreading dry fuels beds will very likely pose a risk for lightning ignitions over the coming days. Expect further refinements in the 10% IsoDryT areas as convective details are resolved. ...Eastern Great Basin... To the south of the main shortwave trough, slight enhancement of south/southwesterly flow aloft could support stronger surface winds and low RH across parts of the eastern Great Basin and Western Slope D4/Wednesday and beyond. While uncertainty remains given model differences in timing/intensity of the upper-level system, elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions are possible through the end of the week. ..Lyons.. 07/27/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0406 PM CDT Sun Jul 27 2025 Valid 291200Z - 041200Z Broad ridging over the central US will continue to strengthen through much of the extended forecast period amplifying the upper-level flow pattern. As a result, broad troughing will deepen over the western US, allowing an increase in mid-level moisture. An active period of thunderstorms is expected from the Great basin to the Northwest through Midweek. Dry lightning and occasional dry/breezy conditions are likely. ...Northern Great Basin and Northwest... The broad troughing over the western US will continue to deepen as prominent ridging to the east further amplifies the flow pattern aloft. Within the broad troughing, several well-defined perturbations will approach the northern Great Basin and Northwest early next week. Starting late D2/Monday through D3/Tuesday, a shortwave trough will bring an initial surge of mid-level moisture northward across northern CA, NV into southern OR/ID. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are likely along the Sierras and into the southern Cascades. With PWATs of 0.7-1 inches, relatively poor precipitation efficiency is expected given steep lapse rates. Isolated dry lightning is possible with these storms. Greater lightning chances continue D4/Wed into D5/Thursday as a second shortwave is expected to intensify across the Great Basin and Northwest. More widespread storm coverage is expected as moisture expands northward across much of the Cascades and northern Great Basin. MUCAPE near 1000 J/kg and strengthening meridional flow aloft could support some stronger storms with greater longevity. The exact convective evolution and areas of highest coverage remain unclear given the potential for lingering cloud cover and prior convection. However, scattered to numerous storms overspreading dry fuels beds will very likely pose a risk for lightning ignitions over the coming days. Expect further refinements in the 10% IsoDryT areas as convective details are resolved. ...Eastern Great Basin... To the south of the main shortwave trough, slight enhancement of south/southwesterly flow aloft could support stronger surface winds and low RH across parts of the eastern Great Basin and Western Slope D4/Wednesday and beyond. While uncertainty remains given model differences in timing/intensity of the upper-level system, elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions are possible through the end of the week. ..Lyons.. 07/27/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0406 PM CDT Sun Jul 27 2025 Valid 291200Z - 041200Z Broad ridging over the central US will continue to strengthen through much of the extended forecast period amplifying the upper-level flow pattern. As a result, broad troughing will deepen over the western US, allowing an increase in mid-level moisture. An active period of thunderstorms is expected from the Great basin to the Northwest through Midweek. Dry lightning and occasional dry/breezy conditions are likely. ...Northern Great Basin and Northwest... The broad troughing over the western US will continue to deepen as prominent ridging to the east further amplifies the flow pattern aloft. Within the broad troughing, several well-defined perturbations will approach the northern Great Basin and Northwest early next week. Starting late D2/Monday through D3/Tuesday, a shortwave trough will bring an initial surge of mid-level moisture northward across northern CA, NV into southern OR/ID. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are likely along the Sierras and into the southern Cascades. With PWATs of 0.7-1 inches, relatively poor precipitation efficiency is expected given steep lapse rates. Isolated dry lightning is possible with these storms. Greater lightning chances continue D4/Wed into D5/Thursday as a second shortwave is expected to intensify across the Great Basin and Northwest. More widespread storm coverage is expected as moisture expands northward across much of the Cascades and northern Great Basin. MUCAPE near 1000 J/kg and strengthening meridional flow aloft could support some stronger storms with greater longevity. The exact convective evolution and areas of highest coverage remain unclear given the potential for lingering cloud cover and prior convection. However, scattered to numerous storms overspreading dry fuels beds will very likely pose a risk for lightning ignitions over the coming days. Expect further refinements in the 10% IsoDryT areas as convective details are resolved. ...Eastern Great Basin... To the south of the main shortwave trough, slight enhancement of south/southwesterly flow aloft could support stronger surface winds and low RH across parts of the eastern Great Basin and Western Slope D4/Wednesday and beyond. While uncertainty remains given model differences in timing/intensity of the upper-level system, elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions are possible through the end of the week. ..Lyons.. 07/27/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0406 PM CDT Sun Jul 27 2025 Valid 291200Z - 041200Z Broad ridging over the central US will continue to strengthen through much of the extended forecast period amplifying the upper-level flow pattern. As a result, broad troughing will deepen over the western US, allowing an increase in mid-level moisture. An active period of thunderstorms is expected from the Great basin to the Northwest through Midweek. Dry lightning and occasional dry/breezy conditions are likely. ...Northern Great Basin and Northwest... The broad troughing over the western US will continue to deepen as prominent ridging to the east further amplifies the flow pattern aloft. Within the broad troughing, several well-defined perturbations will approach the northern Great Basin and Northwest early next week. Starting late D2/Monday through D3/Tuesday, a shortwave trough will bring an initial surge of mid-level moisture northward across northern CA, NV into southern OR/ID. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are likely along the Sierras and into the southern Cascades. With PWATs of 0.7-1 inches, relatively poor precipitation efficiency is expected given steep lapse rates. Isolated dry lightning is possible with these storms. Greater lightning chances continue D4/Wed into D5/Thursday as a second shortwave is expected to intensify across the Great Basin and Northwest. More widespread storm coverage is expected as moisture expands northward across much of the Cascades and northern Great Basin. MUCAPE near 1000 J/kg and strengthening meridional flow aloft could support some stronger storms with greater longevity. The exact convective evolution and areas of highest coverage remain unclear given the potential for lingering cloud cover and prior convection. However, scattered to numerous storms overspreading dry fuels beds will very likely pose a risk for lightning ignitions over the coming days. Expect further refinements in the 10% IsoDryT areas as convective details are resolved. ...Eastern Great Basin... To the south of the main shortwave trough, slight enhancement of south/southwesterly flow aloft could support stronger surface winds and low RH across parts of the eastern Great Basin and Western Slope D4/Wednesday and beyond. While uncertainty remains given model differences in timing/intensity of the upper-level system, elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions are possible through the end of the week. ..Lyons.. 07/27/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0406 PM CDT Sun Jul 27 2025 Valid 291200Z - 041200Z Broad ridging over the central US will continue to strengthen through much of the extended forecast period amplifying the upper-level flow pattern. As a result, broad troughing will deepen over the western US, allowing an increase in mid-level moisture. An active period of thunderstorms is expected from the Great basin to the Northwest through Midweek. Dry lightning and occasional dry/breezy conditions are likely. ...Northern Great Basin and Northwest... The broad troughing over the western US will continue to deepen as prominent ridging to the east further amplifies the flow pattern aloft. Within the broad troughing, several well-defined perturbations will approach the northern Great Basin and Northwest early next week. Starting late D2/Monday through D3/Tuesday, a shortwave trough will bring an initial surge of mid-level moisture northward across northern CA, NV into southern OR/ID. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are likely along the Sierras and into the southern Cascades. With PWATs of 0.7-1 inches, relatively poor precipitation efficiency is expected given steep lapse rates. Isolated dry lightning is possible with these storms. Greater lightning chances continue D4/Wed into D5/Thursday as a second shortwave is expected to intensify across the Great Basin and Northwest. More widespread storm coverage is expected as moisture expands northward across much of the Cascades and northern Great Basin. MUCAPE near 1000 J/kg and strengthening meridional flow aloft could support some stronger storms with greater longevity. The exact convective evolution and areas of highest coverage remain unclear given the potential for lingering cloud cover and prior convection. However, scattered to numerous storms overspreading dry fuels beds will very likely pose a risk for lightning ignitions over the coming days. Expect further refinements in the 10% IsoDryT areas as convective details are resolved. ...Eastern Great Basin... To the south of the main shortwave trough, slight enhancement of south/southwesterly flow aloft could support stronger surface winds and low RH across parts of the eastern Great Basin and Western Slope D4/Wednesday and beyond. While uncertainty remains given model differences in timing/intensity of the upper-level system, elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions are possible through the end of the week. ..Lyons.. 07/27/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more