Severe Storms

WW 0390 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 390 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..KERR..06/04/24 ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 390 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC013-015-017-027-029-041-053-061-079-085-095-105-111-113-115- 117-127-131-143-149-155-157-159-161-169-173-197-201-042140- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BROWN BUTLER CHASE CLAY CLOUD DICKINSON ELLSWORTH GEARY HARVEY JACKSON KINGMAN LINCOLN LYON MCPHERSON MARION MARSHALL MORRIS NEMAHA OTTAWA POTTAWATOMIE RENO REPUBLIC RICE RILEY SALINE SEDGWICK WABAUNSEE WASHINGTON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

MD 1163 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS
Mesoscale Discussion 1163 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0140 PM CDT Tue Jun 04 2024 Areas affected...central and eastern Kansas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 041840Z - 042115Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...Storms may continue to evolve into an intensifying sustained supercell, then upscale growing and organizing thunderstorm cluster through 3-5 PM CDT. A severe weather watch may be required within the next couple of hours. DISCUSSION...South of the primary trough within the stronger westerlies overspreading the northern Great Plains, a perturbation within weaker westerlies to the lee of the southern Rockies is in the process of overspreading the western Kansas through Texas Panhandle vicinity. Just ahead of this feature, a persistent cluster of developing thunderstorms (now slowly progressing east of the Russell KS vicinity) has been focused near the northern periphery of a plume of very warm elevated mixed-layer air overspreading much of the southern Great Plains, likely aided by warm advection near the 700 mb level. Beneath this regime, insolation within a boundary-layer characterized by seasonably high moisture content is becoming moderate to strongly unstable, with CAPE increasing in excess of 2000-3000 J/kg. It appears that the storms near Russell are undergoing a period of significant intensification with increasing inflow of this air now underway. With the continued eastward progression of the upstream impulse, further suppression of inhibition associated with elevated mixed-layer may allow for a substantive further increase and upscale growth of convection through the 20-22Z time frame. Although convection is embedded within weak westerly deep-layer mean flow on the order of 10-20 kt, modest shear due to veering wind fields with height in lower to mid-levels may be sufficient to support a sustained intensifying supercell structure with increasing risk for large hail and some potential for a brief tornado. Eventually upscale growth may be accompanied by the evolution of a notable mesoscale convective vortex, strengthening mid-level rear inflow and increasing potential for strong to severe gusts with downward mixing to the surface. ..Kerr/Smith.. 06/04/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...OUN...GID...DDC... LAT...LON 38110080 38739948 39799774 39629620 37709607 36799804 37150028 38110080 Read more

WW 0389 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 389 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..KERR..06/04/24 ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 389 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MNC001-009-021-035-059-061-065-067-071-085-093-095-097-129-141- 143-145-153-171-042140- MN . MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE AITKIN BENTON CASS CROW WING ISANTI ITASCA KANABEC KANDIYOHI KOOCHICHING MCLEOD MEEKER MILLE LACS MORRISON RENVILLE SHERBURNE SIBLEY STEARNS TODD WRIGHT THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0317 PM CDT Tue Jun 04 2024 Valid 061200Z - 121200Z An upper-level ridge will settle over the western CONUS as northwesterly flow aloft becomes established across the eastern CONUS through the remainder of the week into this weekend. Thereafter, medium range guidance depicts a gradual breakdown of the upper-level ridge into early next week, with perhaps a mid-level trough developing over the southern Plains at the end of the period (Day 8/Tuesday). The evolution of the aforementioned upper-air pattern will support multiple rounds of potential meaningful rainfall at several locales east of the Rockies, dampening fuel receptiveness to wildfire spread in the process. However, prolonged warm and dry conditions are expected from portions of the Lower Colorado River Basin into the Great Basin. Medium range guidance agreement on stronger surface winds overlapping the expected lower RH is not overly strong, so no Critical probabilities have been delineated this outlook. However, the prolonged dry conditions, along with the lack of appreciable rainfall accumulations, should support the continued curing of fuels over portions of the Interior West. ..Squitieri.. 06/04/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0317 PM CDT Tue Jun 04 2024 Valid 061200Z - 121200Z An upper-level ridge will settle over the western CONUS as northwesterly flow aloft becomes established across the eastern CONUS through the remainder of the week into this weekend. Thereafter, medium range guidance depicts a gradual breakdown of the upper-level ridge into early next week, with perhaps a mid-level trough developing over the southern Plains at the end of the period (Day 8/Tuesday). The evolution of the aforementioned upper-air pattern will support multiple rounds of potential meaningful rainfall at several locales east of the Rockies, dampening fuel receptiveness to wildfire spread in the process. However, prolonged warm and dry conditions are expected from portions of the Lower Colorado River Basin into the Great Basin. Medium range guidance agreement on stronger surface winds overlapping the expected lower RH is not overly strong, so no Critical probabilities have been delineated this outlook. However, the prolonged dry conditions, along with the lack of appreciable rainfall accumulations, should support the continued curing of fuels over portions of the Interior West. ..Squitieri.. 06/04/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0317 PM CDT Tue Jun 04 2024 Valid 061200Z - 121200Z An upper-level ridge will settle over the western CONUS as northwesterly flow aloft becomes established across the eastern CONUS through the remainder of the week into this weekend. Thereafter, medium range guidance depicts a gradual breakdown of the upper-level ridge into early next week, with perhaps a mid-level trough developing over the southern Plains at the end of the period (Day 8/Tuesday). The evolution of the aforementioned upper-air pattern will support multiple rounds of potential meaningful rainfall at several locales east of the Rockies, dampening fuel receptiveness to wildfire spread in the process. However, prolonged warm and dry conditions are expected from portions of the Lower Colorado River Basin into the Great Basin. Medium range guidance agreement on stronger surface winds overlapping the expected lower RH is not overly strong, so no Critical probabilities have been delineated this outlook. However, the prolonged dry conditions, along with the lack of appreciable rainfall accumulations, should support the continued curing of fuels over portions of the Interior West. ..Squitieri.. 06/04/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0317 PM CDT Tue Jun 04 2024 Valid 061200Z - 121200Z An upper-level ridge will settle over the western CONUS as northwesterly flow aloft becomes established across the eastern CONUS through the remainder of the week into this weekend. Thereafter, medium range guidance depicts a gradual breakdown of the upper-level ridge into early next week, with perhaps a mid-level trough developing over the southern Plains at the end of the period (Day 8/Tuesday). The evolution of the aforementioned upper-air pattern will support multiple rounds of potential meaningful rainfall at several locales east of the Rockies, dampening fuel receptiveness to wildfire spread in the process. However, prolonged warm and dry conditions are expected from portions of the Lower Colorado River Basin into the Great Basin. Medium range guidance agreement on stronger surface winds overlapping the expected lower RH is not overly strong, so no Critical probabilities have been delineated this outlook. However, the prolonged dry conditions, along with the lack of appreciable rainfall accumulations, should support the continued curing of fuels over portions of the Interior West. ..Squitieri.. 06/04/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0317 PM CDT Tue Jun 04 2024 Valid 061200Z - 121200Z An upper-level ridge will settle over the western CONUS as northwesterly flow aloft becomes established across the eastern CONUS through the remainder of the week into this weekend. Thereafter, medium range guidance depicts a gradual breakdown of the upper-level ridge into early next week, with perhaps a mid-level trough developing over the southern Plains at the end of the period (Day 8/Tuesday). The evolution of the aforementioned upper-air pattern will support multiple rounds of potential meaningful rainfall at several locales east of the Rockies, dampening fuel receptiveness to wildfire spread in the process. However, prolonged warm and dry conditions are expected from portions of the Lower Colorado River Basin into the Great Basin. Medium range guidance agreement on stronger surface winds overlapping the expected lower RH is not overly strong, so no Critical probabilities have been delineated this outlook. However, the prolonged dry conditions, along with the lack of appreciable rainfall accumulations, should support the continued curing of fuels over portions of the Interior West. ..Squitieri.. 06/04/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0317 PM CDT Tue Jun 04 2024 Valid 061200Z - 121200Z An upper-level ridge will settle over the western CONUS as northwesterly flow aloft becomes established across the eastern CONUS through the remainder of the week into this weekend. Thereafter, medium range guidance depicts a gradual breakdown of the upper-level ridge into early next week, with perhaps a mid-level trough developing over the southern Plains at the end of the period (Day 8/Tuesday). The evolution of the aforementioned upper-air pattern will support multiple rounds of potential meaningful rainfall at several locales east of the Rockies, dampening fuel receptiveness to wildfire spread in the process. However, prolonged warm and dry conditions are expected from portions of the Lower Colorado River Basin into the Great Basin. Medium range guidance agreement on stronger surface winds overlapping the expected lower RH is not overly strong, so no Critical probabilities have been delineated this outlook. However, the prolonged dry conditions, along with the lack of appreciable rainfall accumulations, should support the continued curing of fuels over portions of the Interior West. ..Squitieri.. 06/04/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0317 PM CDT Tue Jun 04 2024 Valid 061200Z - 121200Z An upper-level ridge will settle over the western CONUS as northwesterly flow aloft becomes established across the eastern CONUS through the remainder of the week into this weekend. Thereafter, medium range guidance depicts a gradual breakdown of the upper-level ridge into early next week, with perhaps a mid-level trough developing over the southern Plains at the end of the period (Day 8/Tuesday). The evolution of the aforementioned upper-air pattern will support multiple rounds of potential meaningful rainfall at several locales east of the Rockies, dampening fuel receptiveness to wildfire spread in the process. However, prolonged warm and dry conditions are expected from portions of the Lower Colorado River Basin into the Great Basin. Medium range guidance agreement on stronger surface winds overlapping the expected lower RH is not overly strong, so no Critical probabilities have been delineated this outlook. However, the prolonged dry conditions, along with the lack of appreciable rainfall accumulations, should support the continued curing of fuels over portions of the Interior West. ..Squitieri.. 06/04/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0317 PM CDT Tue Jun 04 2024 Valid 061200Z - 121200Z An upper-level ridge will settle over the western CONUS as northwesterly flow aloft becomes established across the eastern CONUS through the remainder of the week into this weekend. Thereafter, medium range guidance depicts a gradual breakdown of the upper-level ridge into early next week, with perhaps a mid-level trough developing over the southern Plains at the end of the period (Day 8/Tuesday). The evolution of the aforementioned upper-air pattern will support multiple rounds of potential meaningful rainfall at several locales east of the Rockies, dampening fuel receptiveness to wildfire spread in the process. However, prolonged warm and dry conditions are expected from portions of the Lower Colorado River Basin into the Great Basin. Medium range guidance agreement on stronger surface winds overlapping the expected lower RH is not overly strong, so no Critical probabilities have been delineated this outlook. However, the prolonged dry conditions, along with the lack of appreciable rainfall accumulations, should support the continued curing of fuels over portions of the Interior West. ..Squitieri.. 06/04/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0317 PM CDT Tue Jun 04 2024 Valid 061200Z - 121200Z An upper-level ridge will settle over the western CONUS as northwesterly flow aloft becomes established across the eastern CONUS through the remainder of the week into this weekend. Thereafter, medium range guidance depicts a gradual breakdown of the upper-level ridge into early next week, with perhaps a mid-level trough developing over the southern Plains at the end of the period (Day 8/Tuesday). The evolution of the aforementioned upper-air pattern will support multiple rounds of potential meaningful rainfall at several locales east of the Rockies, dampening fuel receptiveness to wildfire spread in the process. However, prolonged warm and dry conditions are expected from portions of the Lower Colorado River Basin into the Great Basin. Medium range guidance agreement on stronger surface winds overlapping the expected lower RH is not overly strong, so no Critical probabilities have been delineated this outlook. However, the prolonged dry conditions, along with the lack of appreciable rainfall accumulations, should support the continued curing of fuels over portions of the Interior West. ..Squitieri.. 06/04/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0317 PM CDT Tue Jun 04 2024 Valid 061200Z - 121200Z An upper-level ridge will settle over the western CONUS as northwesterly flow aloft becomes established across the eastern CONUS through the remainder of the week into this weekend. Thereafter, medium range guidance depicts a gradual breakdown of the upper-level ridge into early next week, with perhaps a mid-level trough developing over the southern Plains at the end of the period (Day 8/Tuesday). The evolution of the aforementioned upper-air pattern will support multiple rounds of potential meaningful rainfall at several locales east of the Rockies, dampening fuel receptiveness to wildfire spread in the process. However, prolonged warm and dry conditions are expected from portions of the Lower Colorado River Basin into the Great Basin. Medium range guidance agreement on stronger surface winds overlapping the expected lower RH is not overly strong, so no Critical probabilities have been delineated this outlook. However, the prolonged dry conditions, along with the lack of appreciable rainfall accumulations, should support the continued curing of fuels over portions of the Interior West. ..Squitieri.. 06/04/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0317 PM CDT Tue Jun 04 2024 Valid 061200Z - 121200Z An upper-level ridge will settle over the western CONUS as northwesterly flow aloft becomes established across the eastern CONUS through the remainder of the week into this weekend. Thereafter, medium range guidance depicts a gradual breakdown of the upper-level ridge into early next week, with perhaps a mid-level trough developing over the southern Plains at the end of the period (Day 8/Tuesday). The evolution of the aforementioned upper-air pattern will support multiple rounds of potential meaningful rainfall at several locales east of the Rockies, dampening fuel receptiveness to wildfire spread in the process. However, prolonged warm and dry conditions are expected from portions of the Lower Colorado River Basin into the Great Basin. Medium range guidance agreement on stronger surface winds overlapping the expected lower RH is not overly strong, so no Critical probabilities have been delineated this outlook. However, the prolonged dry conditions, along with the lack of appreciable rainfall accumulations, should support the continued curing of fuels over portions of the Interior West. ..Squitieri.. 06/04/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0317 PM CDT Tue Jun 04 2024 Valid 061200Z - 121200Z An upper-level ridge will settle over the western CONUS as northwesterly flow aloft becomes established across the eastern CONUS through the remainder of the week into this weekend. Thereafter, medium range guidance depicts a gradual breakdown of the upper-level ridge into early next week, with perhaps a mid-level trough developing over the southern Plains at the end of the period (Day 8/Tuesday). The evolution of the aforementioned upper-air pattern will support multiple rounds of potential meaningful rainfall at several locales east of the Rockies, dampening fuel receptiveness to wildfire spread in the process. However, prolonged warm and dry conditions are expected from portions of the Lower Colorado River Basin into the Great Basin. Medium range guidance agreement on stronger surface winds overlapping the expected lower RH is not overly strong, so no Critical probabilities have been delineated this outlook. However, the prolonged dry conditions, along with the lack of appreciable rainfall accumulations, should support the continued curing of fuels over portions of the Interior West. ..Squitieri.. 06/04/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0317 PM CDT Tue Jun 04 2024 Valid 061200Z - 121200Z An upper-level ridge will settle over the western CONUS as northwesterly flow aloft becomes established across the eastern CONUS through the remainder of the week into this weekend. Thereafter, medium range guidance depicts a gradual breakdown of the upper-level ridge into early next week, with perhaps a mid-level trough developing over the southern Plains at the end of the period (Day 8/Tuesday). The evolution of the aforementioned upper-air pattern will support multiple rounds of potential meaningful rainfall at several locales east of the Rockies, dampening fuel receptiveness to wildfire spread in the process. However, prolonged warm and dry conditions are expected from portions of the Lower Colorado River Basin into the Great Basin. Medium range guidance agreement on stronger surface winds overlapping the expected lower RH is not overly strong, so no Critical probabilities have been delineated this outlook. However, the prolonged dry conditions, along with the lack of appreciable rainfall accumulations, should support the continued curing of fuels over portions of the Interior West. ..Squitieri.. 06/04/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0317 PM CDT Tue Jun 04 2024 Valid 061200Z - 121200Z An upper-level ridge will settle over the western CONUS as northwesterly flow aloft becomes established across the eastern CONUS through the remainder of the week into this weekend. Thereafter, medium range guidance depicts a gradual breakdown of the upper-level ridge into early next week, with perhaps a mid-level trough developing over the southern Plains at the end of the period (Day 8/Tuesday). The evolution of the aforementioned upper-air pattern will support multiple rounds of potential meaningful rainfall at several locales east of the Rockies, dampening fuel receptiveness to wildfire spread in the process. However, prolonged warm and dry conditions are expected from portions of the Lower Colorado River Basin into the Great Basin. Medium range guidance agreement on stronger surface winds overlapping the expected lower RH is not overly strong, so no Critical probabilities have been delineated this outlook. However, the prolonged dry conditions, along with the lack of appreciable rainfall accumulations, should support the continued curing of fuels over portions of the Interior West. ..Squitieri.. 06/04/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0317 PM CDT Tue Jun 04 2024 Valid 061200Z - 121200Z An upper-level ridge will settle over the western CONUS as northwesterly flow aloft becomes established across the eastern CONUS through the remainder of the week into this weekend. Thereafter, medium range guidance depicts a gradual breakdown of the upper-level ridge into early next week, with perhaps a mid-level trough developing over the southern Plains at the end of the period (Day 8/Tuesday). The evolution of the aforementioned upper-air pattern will support multiple rounds of potential meaningful rainfall at several locales east of the Rockies, dampening fuel receptiveness to wildfire spread in the process. However, prolonged warm and dry conditions are expected from portions of the Lower Colorado River Basin into the Great Basin. Medium range guidance agreement on stronger surface winds overlapping the expected lower RH is not overly strong, so no Critical probabilities have been delineated this outlook. However, the prolonged dry conditions, along with the lack of appreciable rainfall accumulations, should support the continued curing of fuels over portions of the Interior West. ..Squitieri.. 06/04/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0308 PM CDT Tue Jun 04 2024 Valid 042000Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are probable across central and eastern Oklahoma this evening. A tornado and large to very large hail will be possible this evening, before severe outflow winds of 60-85 mph potentially accompany the more intense downdrafts this evening into tonight. ...20Z Update... Forecast reasoning and related graphical risk depictions remain largely unchanged, although some spatial adjustments were made in Louisiana and Mississippi related to an ongoing MCS and Severe Thunderstorm Watch 391. ..Guyer.. 06/04/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT Tue Jun 04 2024/ ...Southern Plains to lower MS Valley through tonight... Radar/satellite imagery late this morning shows a south-southeastward moving MCS along the TX/LA border. Heating of the airmass ahead of the MCS will continue to lead to strong destabilization. A rejuvenation of storm intensity along the western flank of the MCS is possible where a reservoir of very rich low-level moisture and steep 700-500 mb lapse rates will aid in strong/severe storm potential. Damaging gusts and perhaps large hail will be the primary hazards with the stronger storms. Outflow from the morning storms will reinforce a composite outflow boundary across north TX northward into OK. It appears that the outflow air mass will modify through the day across OK. Surface dewpoints are forecast to increase into the mid 70s across central-southern OK where isolated thunderstorm development is forecast by late this afternoon/early evening along the edge of richer moisture. Forecast soundings show MLCAPE could exceed 5000 J/kg with only small convective inhibition. However, forcing for ascent will be rather nebulous and storm initiation/initial coverage is uncertain. Nonetheless, a short window of opportunity may exist for a tornado risk if a quasi-discrete mode can occur early in the convective life cycle. Very large buoyancy and nearly dry adiabatic lapse rates across OK will support large/tall storms capable of producing isolated very large hail initially, and an increase in the threat for damaging winds (60-85 mph) as storms grow upscale into another MCS tonight. Have opted to upgrade to a 30-percent significant wind area for greater confidence in a severe MCS across central/eastern OK. Farther north, thunderstorms for forecast to develop across KS this afternoon into early tonight, as a weak surface cold front and associated midlevel trough will move southeastward and impinge on the very moist/unstable warm sector. Hail/wind will be the primary risks with those stronger storms. ...Mid MO to upper MS Valleys this afternoon/evening... A midlevel shortwave trough and associated cold front will move eastward from NE/Dakotas to eastern KS/IA and WI by the end of the period. The richest low-level moisture will remain farther south, but surface heating in pre-frontal cloud breaks and boundary-layer dewpoints in the 60s will contribute to MLCAPE of 1000-2000 J/kg. Some low-level hodographs enlargement in northern MN may aid in some brief updraft rotation potential before an extensive band of storms becomes outflow dominant. Vertical shear will be relatively weak in the warm sector which will primarily support multicell clusters and line segments capable of producing occasional wind damage and marginally severe hail. ...MO/IL today... A midlevel low over west central MO this morning will move northeastward toward central/northern IL by this evening. Lingering clouds will tend to slow surface heating, though cloud breaks could allow modest destabilization and support a few strong thunderstorm clusters capable of producing isolated strong/damaging outflow gusts and marginally severe hail. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0308 PM CDT Tue Jun 04 2024 Valid 042000Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are probable across central and eastern Oklahoma this evening. A tornado and large to very large hail will be possible this evening, before severe outflow winds of 60-85 mph potentially accompany the more intense downdrafts this evening into tonight. ...20Z Update... Forecast reasoning and related graphical risk depictions remain largely unchanged, although some spatial adjustments were made in Louisiana and Mississippi related to an ongoing MCS and Severe Thunderstorm Watch 391. ..Guyer.. 06/04/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT Tue Jun 04 2024/ ...Southern Plains to lower MS Valley through tonight... Radar/satellite imagery late this morning shows a south-southeastward moving MCS along the TX/LA border. Heating of the airmass ahead of the MCS will continue to lead to strong destabilization. A rejuvenation of storm intensity along the western flank of the MCS is possible where a reservoir of very rich low-level moisture and steep 700-500 mb lapse rates will aid in strong/severe storm potential. Damaging gusts and perhaps large hail will be the primary hazards with the stronger storms. Outflow from the morning storms will reinforce a composite outflow boundary across north TX northward into OK. It appears that the outflow air mass will modify through the day across OK. Surface dewpoints are forecast to increase into the mid 70s across central-southern OK where isolated thunderstorm development is forecast by late this afternoon/early evening along the edge of richer moisture. Forecast soundings show MLCAPE could exceed 5000 J/kg with only small convective inhibition. However, forcing for ascent will be rather nebulous and storm initiation/initial coverage is uncertain. Nonetheless, a short window of opportunity may exist for a tornado risk if a quasi-discrete mode can occur early in the convective life cycle. Very large buoyancy and nearly dry adiabatic lapse rates across OK will support large/tall storms capable of producing isolated very large hail initially, and an increase in the threat for damaging winds (60-85 mph) as storms grow upscale into another MCS tonight. Have opted to upgrade to a 30-percent significant wind area for greater confidence in a severe MCS across central/eastern OK. Farther north, thunderstorms for forecast to develop across KS this afternoon into early tonight, as a weak surface cold front and associated midlevel trough will move southeastward and impinge on the very moist/unstable warm sector. Hail/wind will be the primary risks with those stronger storms. ...Mid MO to upper MS Valleys this afternoon/evening... A midlevel shortwave trough and associated cold front will move eastward from NE/Dakotas to eastern KS/IA and WI by the end of the period. The richest low-level moisture will remain farther south, but surface heating in pre-frontal cloud breaks and boundary-layer dewpoints in the 60s will contribute to MLCAPE of 1000-2000 J/kg. Some low-level hodographs enlargement in northern MN may aid in some brief updraft rotation potential before an extensive band of storms becomes outflow dominant. Vertical shear will be relatively weak in the warm sector which will primarily support multicell clusters and line segments capable of producing occasional wind damage and marginally severe hail. ...MO/IL today... A midlevel low over west central MO this morning will move northeastward toward central/northern IL by this evening. Lingering clouds will tend to slow surface heating, though cloud breaks could allow modest destabilization and support a few strong thunderstorm clusters capable of producing isolated strong/damaging outflow gusts and marginally severe hail. Read more