Severe Storms

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Thu Jun 06 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHWEST/SOUTH-CENTRAL NE AND NORTHWEST/NORTH-CENTRAL KS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible from the central High Plains into the central Plains on Friday. ...Synopsis... Upper troughing is forecast to extend from the Canadian Prairie Provinces southeastward off the Northeast Coast early Friday morning, anchored by a pair of closed lows, one over central Saskatchewan/Manitoba and the other Lake Huron. This troughing is expected to persist throughout much of the period, while upper ridging builds from the southern Plains into the Pacific Northwest. Enhanced northwesterly flow aloft will exist between these two features, extending from the northern Rockies through the Upper/Mid MS and OH Valleys and into the Northeast. At the surface, a cold front will likely extend from a low over southern New England southward off the East Coast before then arcing more southwestward and back onshore from coastal NC into central GA. An increasingly diffuse frontal boundary will extend from central GA westward across the Southeast and into northeast TX. Portion of this front extending from the Carolinas in GA is forecast to progress gradually southeastward. Farther west, a sharpening lee trough and strengthening low to mid-level southerly flow will contribute to low-level moisture advection across the central and southern Plains. As a result of this moisture return, the western portion of the aforementioned front will become an effective warm front, shifting quickly northward/northeastward across OK and KS. ...Central High Plains/Central Plains into Mid/Lower MO Valley... Afternoon dewpoints are expected to reach the upper 50s/low 60s just east of the lee trough in far eastern CO, southwest NE, and western KS, with mid 60s dewpoints likely farther east into more of KS. Strong heating is anticipated across the region, with convective inhibition eroding by the late afternoon. Low-level convergence along the dryline, combined with glancing large-scale ascent attendant to a low-amplitude shortwave trough moving through the northern periphery of the ridge, is expected to result in convective initiation over the far eastern CO/southwest NE/western KS vicinity. High-based, outflow-dominant storm structures are anticipated, with the potential for cold pool amalgamation and upscale growth into a forward-propagating MCS. Hail is possible with the early development, but damaging gusts should quickly become the primary severe threat. Tornado potential is expected to be low, owing largely to the high-based, outflow-dominant storm structure, but southeasterly surface winds and ambient vorticity along the warm front could still result in a tornado or two. Additional thunderstorm development is possible during the evening to the east of the convective line (i.e. eastern KS into south-central/southeast NE), supported by a strengthening low-level jet and resultant warm-air advection. Steep mid-level lapse rates, and resultant moderate buoyancy, combined with moderate deep-layer vertical shear, could support organized storms capable of large hail. ...Southern High Plains... Similar afternoon scenario is anticipated here as areas farther north, with afternoon thunderstorm initiation likely along the lee trough once the airmass destabilizes. Coverage and intensity may be slightly less than areas farther north, mostly as a result of weaker westerly/northwesterly flow aloft and likely greater convective inhibition. Damaging wind gusts are primary risk. ..Mosier.. 06/06/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Thu Jun 06 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHWEST/SOUTH-CENTRAL NE AND NORTHWEST/NORTH-CENTRAL KS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible from the central High Plains into the central Plains on Friday. ...Synopsis... Upper troughing is forecast to extend from the Canadian Prairie Provinces southeastward off the Northeast Coast early Friday morning, anchored by a pair of closed lows, one over central Saskatchewan/Manitoba and the other Lake Huron. This troughing is expected to persist throughout much of the period, while upper ridging builds from the southern Plains into the Pacific Northwest. Enhanced northwesterly flow aloft will exist between these two features, extending from the northern Rockies through the Upper/Mid MS and OH Valleys and into the Northeast. At the surface, a cold front will likely extend from a low over southern New England southward off the East Coast before then arcing more southwestward and back onshore from coastal NC into central GA. An increasingly diffuse frontal boundary will extend from central GA westward across the Southeast and into northeast TX. Portion of this front extending from the Carolinas in GA is forecast to progress gradually southeastward. Farther west, a sharpening lee trough and strengthening low to mid-level southerly flow will contribute to low-level moisture advection across the central and southern Plains. As a result of this moisture return, the western portion of the aforementioned front will become an effective warm front, shifting quickly northward/northeastward across OK and KS. ...Central High Plains/Central Plains into Mid/Lower MO Valley... Afternoon dewpoints are expected to reach the upper 50s/low 60s just east of the lee trough in far eastern CO, southwest NE, and western KS, with mid 60s dewpoints likely farther east into more of KS. Strong heating is anticipated across the region, with convective inhibition eroding by the late afternoon. Low-level convergence along the dryline, combined with glancing large-scale ascent attendant to a low-amplitude shortwave trough moving through the northern periphery of the ridge, is expected to result in convective initiation over the far eastern CO/southwest NE/western KS vicinity. High-based, outflow-dominant storm structures are anticipated, with the potential for cold pool amalgamation and upscale growth into a forward-propagating MCS. Hail is possible with the early development, but damaging gusts should quickly become the primary severe threat. Tornado potential is expected to be low, owing largely to the high-based, outflow-dominant storm structure, but southeasterly surface winds and ambient vorticity along the warm front could still result in a tornado or two. Additional thunderstorm development is possible during the evening to the east of the convective line (i.e. eastern KS into south-central/southeast NE), supported by a strengthening low-level jet and resultant warm-air advection. Steep mid-level lapse rates, and resultant moderate buoyancy, combined with moderate deep-layer vertical shear, could support organized storms capable of large hail. ...Southern High Plains... Similar afternoon scenario is anticipated here as areas farther north, with afternoon thunderstorm initiation likely along the lee trough once the airmass destabilizes. Coverage and intensity may be slightly less than areas farther north, mostly as a result of weaker westerly/northwesterly flow aloft and likely greater convective inhibition. Damaging wind gusts are primary risk. ..Mosier.. 06/06/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1250 AM CDT Thu Jun 06 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST...MID ATLANTIC...FLORIDA PENINSULA...AND PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to potentially severe thunderstorms will be possible later today across parts of central and south Florida, parts of the Mid Atlantic into the Northeast, and also from the Texas Panhandle into western Oklahoma. ...Mid Atlantic/Northeast... Latest water-vapor imagery depicts a notable upper trough over the upper Great Lakes region, shifting east in line with latest model guidance. 500mb speed max is forecast to translate across the northern OH Valley into western NY by 18z, and 30-60m 12hr height falls will spread across much of western PA/NY by peak heating. Modest boundary-layer heating is expected ahead of this feature which will result in a narrow corridor of MLCAPE on the order of 1000 J/kg from northeast PA into portions of upstate NY. Forecast soundings suggest convective temperatures will be breached by 17z and scattered thunderstorms should evolve along/ahead of the surging cold front. While deep-layer shear is not expected to be particularly strong, mid-level flow should be sufficient for some organization and gusty winds are the primary risk with storms by mid day. Farther south across VA/NC, influence of Great Lakes trough will be minimal but instability should be strong with MLCAPE values possibly approaching 2000 J/kg prior to convective initiation. Deep west-southwesterly flow and surface-6km bulk shear around 20kt may permit some updraft organization. Gusty winds will be the primary concern with thunderstorms that form after 18-19z across the southern Mid Atlantic. ...Florida... Seasonally cool 500mb temperatures will be noted across the FL Peninsula today with values near -10C across northern FL. Weak westerly flow at mid levels should encourage convection to concentrate along the eastern Peninsula and solenoidal influences will prove instrumental in robust convection by early afternoon. With MLCAPE around 3000 J/kg and steep lapse rates, hail and wind may be noted with the strongest storms. ...TX Panhandle/Western OK... Upper ridge is expected to hold across the southwestern US through the day1 period. This position will ensure northwesterly flow across the southern High Plains with 500mb flow possibly approaching 30kt. In addition to very steep lapse rates, PW values will be quite high with readings of 1.5-2" from the eastern TX Panhandle into northern OK. This corridor is coincident with a weak surface boundary that should serve as the focus for convective initiation. NAM forecast sounding southeast of GAG at 21z exhibits MLCAPE around 4000 J/kg with 35kt surface-6km bulk shear and negligible CINH. Convection should evolve near this wind shift after 21z than propagate south-southwest into the eastern TX Panhandle. If sufficient convection forms such that a substantial cold pool evolves, there may be a need for a SLGT risk to account for potentially organized wind event. Will maintain low probabilities at this time due to storm coverage uncertainty. ..Darrow/Lyons.. 06/06/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1250 AM CDT Thu Jun 06 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST...MID ATLANTIC...FLORIDA PENINSULA...AND PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to potentially severe thunderstorms will be possible later today across parts of central and south Florida, parts of the Mid Atlantic into the Northeast, and also from the Texas Panhandle into western Oklahoma. ...Mid Atlantic/Northeast... Latest water-vapor imagery depicts a notable upper trough over the upper Great Lakes region, shifting east in line with latest model guidance. 500mb speed max is forecast to translate across the northern OH Valley into western NY by 18z, and 30-60m 12hr height falls will spread across much of western PA/NY by peak heating. Modest boundary-layer heating is expected ahead of this feature which will result in a narrow corridor of MLCAPE on the order of 1000 J/kg from northeast PA into portions of upstate NY. Forecast soundings suggest convective temperatures will be breached by 17z and scattered thunderstorms should evolve along/ahead of the surging cold front. While deep-layer shear is not expected to be particularly strong, mid-level flow should be sufficient for some organization and gusty winds are the primary risk with storms by mid day. Farther south across VA/NC, influence of Great Lakes trough will be minimal but instability should be strong with MLCAPE values possibly approaching 2000 J/kg prior to convective initiation. Deep west-southwesterly flow and surface-6km bulk shear around 20kt may permit some updraft organization. Gusty winds will be the primary concern with thunderstorms that form after 18-19z across the southern Mid Atlantic. ...Florida... Seasonally cool 500mb temperatures will be noted across the FL Peninsula today with values near -10C across northern FL. Weak westerly flow at mid levels should encourage convection to concentrate along the eastern Peninsula and solenoidal influences will prove instrumental in robust convection by early afternoon. With MLCAPE around 3000 J/kg and steep lapse rates, hail and wind may be noted with the strongest storms. ...TX Panhandle/Western OK... Upper ridge is expected to hold across the southwestern US through the day1 period. This position will ensure northwesterly flow across the southern High Plains with 500mb flow possibly approaching 30kt. In addition to very steep lapse rates, PW values will be quite high with readings of 1.5-2" from the eastern TX Panhandle into northern OK. This corridor is coincident with a weak surface boundary that should serve as the focus for convective initiation. NAM forecast sounding southeast of GAG at 21z exhibits MLCAPE around 4000 J/kg with 35kt surface-6km bulk shear and negligible CINH. Convection should evolve near this wind shift after 21z than propagate south-southwest into the eastern TX Panhandle. If sufficient convection forms such that a substantial cold pool evolves, there may be a need for a SLGT risk to account for potentially organized wind event. Will maintain low probabilities at this time due to storm coverage uncertainty. ..Darrow/Lyons.. 06/06/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1250 AM CDT Thu Jun 06 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST...MID ATLANTIC...FLORIDA PENINSULA...AND PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to potentially severe thunderstorms will be possible later today across parts of central and south Florida, parts of the Mid Atlantic into the Northeast, and also from the Texas Panhandle into western Oklahoma. ...Mid Atlantic/Northeast... Latest water-vapor imagery depicts a notable upper trough over the upper Great Lakes region, shifting east in line with latest model guidance. 500mb speed max is forecast to translate across the northern OH Valley into western NY by 18z, and 30-60m 12hr height falls will spread across much of western PA/NY by peak heating. Modest boundary-layer heating is expected ahead of this feature which will result in a narrow corridor of MLCAPE on the order of 1000 J/kg from northeast PA into portions of upstate NY. Forecast soundings suggest convective temperatures will be breached by 17z and scattered thunderstorms should evolve along/ahead of the surging cold front. While deep-layer shear is not expected to be particularly strong, mid-level flow should be sufficient for some organization and gusty winds are the primary risk with storms by mid day. Farther south across VA/NC, influence of Great Lakes trough will be minimal but instability should be strong with MLCAPE values possibly approaching 2000 J/kg prior to convective initiation. Deep west-southwesterly flow and surface-6km bulk shear around 20kt may permit some updraft organization. Gusty winds will be the primary concern with thunderstorms that form after 18-19z across the southern Mid Atlantic. ...Florida... Seasonally cool 500mb temperatures will be noted across the FL Peninsula today with values near -10C across northern FL. Weak westerly flow at mid levels should encourage convection to concentrate along the eastern Peninsula and solenoidal influences will prove instrumental in robust convection by early afternoon. With MLCAPE around 3000 J/kg and steep lapse rates, hail and wind may be noted with the strongest storms. ...TX Panhandle/Western OK... Upper ridge is expected to hold across the southwestern US through the day1 period. This position will ensure northwesterly flow across the southern High Plains with 500mb flow possibly approaching 30kt. In addition to very steep lapse rates, PW values will be quite high with readings of 1.5-2" from the eastern TX Panhandle into northern OK. This corridor is coincident with a weak surface boundary that should serve as the focus for convective initiation. NAM forecast sounding southeast of GAG at 21z exhibits MLCAPE around 4000 J/kg with 35kt surface-6km bulk shear and negligible CINH. Convection should evolve near this wind shift after 21z than propagate south-southwest into the eastern TX Panhandle. If sufficient convection forms such that a substantial cold pool evolves, there may be a need for a SLGT risk to account for potentially organized wind event. Will maintain low probabilities at this time due to storm coverage uncertainty. ..Darrow/Lyons.. 06/06/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1250 AM CDT Thu Jun 06 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST...MID ATLANTIC...FLORIDA PENINSULA...AND PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to potentially severe thunderstorms will be possible later today across parts of central and south Florida, parts of the Mid Atlantic into the Northeast, and also from the Texas Panhandle into western Oklahoma. ...Mid Atlantic/Northeast... Latest water-vapor imagery depicts a notable upper trough over the upper Great Lakes region, shifting east in line with latest model guidance. 500mb speed max is forecast to translate across the northern OH Valley into western NY by 18z, and 30-60m 12hr height falls will spread across much of western PA/NY by peak heating. Modest boundary-layer heating is expected ahead of this feature which will result in a narrow corridor of MLCAPE on the order of 1000 J/kg from northeast PA into portions of upstate NY. Forecast soundings suggest convective temperatures will be breached by 17z and scattered thunderstorms should evolve along/ahead of the surging cold front. While deep-layer shear is not expected to be particularly strong, mid-level flow should be sufficient for some organization and gusty winds are the primary risk with storms by mid day. Farther south across VA/NC, influence of Great Lakes trough will be minimal but instability should be strong with MLCAPE values possibly approaching 2000 J/kg prior to convective initiation. Deep west-southwesterly flow and surface-6km bulk shear around 20kt may permit some updraft organization. Gusty winds will be the primary concern with thunderstorms that form after 18-19z across the southern Mid Atlantic. ...Florida... Seasonally cool 500mb temperatures will be noted across the FL Peninsula today with values near -10C across northern FL. Weak westerly flow at mid levels should encourage convection to concentrate along the eastern Peninsula and solenoidal influences will prove instrumental in robust convection by early afternoon. With MLCAPE around 3000 J/kg and steep lapse rates, hail and wind may be noted with the strongest storms. ...TX Panhandle/Western OK... Upper ridge is expected to hold across the southwestern US through the day1 period. This position will ensure northwesterly flow across the southern High Plains with 500mb flow possibly approaching 30kt. In addition to very steep lapse rates, PW values will be quite high with readings of 1.5-2" from the eastern TX Panhandle into northern OK. This corridor is coincident with a weak surface boundary that should serve as the focus for convective initiation. NAM forecast sounding southeast of GAG at 21z exhibits MLCAPE around 4000 J/kg with 35kt surface-6km bulk shear and negligible CINH. Convection should evolve near this wind shift after 21z than propagate south-southwest into the eastern TX Panhandle. If sufficient convection forms such that a substantial cold pool evolves, there may be a need for a SLGT risk to account for potentially organized wind event. Will maintain low probabilities at this time due to storm coverage uncertainty. ..Darrow/Lyons.. 06/06/2024 Read more

MD 1179 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR FAR NORTHEASTERN MD...NORTHERN DE AND SOUTHERN NJ
Mesoscale Discussion 1179 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0917 PM CDT Wed Jun 05 2024 Areas affected...far northeastern MD...northern DE and southern NJ Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 060217Z - 060315Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...The ongoing cluster of storms near the MD/DE border may continue east with the risk for an isolated tornado or damaging gust this evening. DISCUSSION...As of 0210 UTC regional radar analysis showed a cluster of low topped storms near the MD/DE border. Thee storms have retained transient supercell characteristics near a subtle warm frontal zone across northern DelMarVa. Ahead of these storms, SPC mesoanalysis shows around 500-1000 J/kg of residual MUCAPE sufficient for continued updraft maintenance. Low-level shear remains favorable for some storm-scale rotation with KDOX VAD showing 0-1km SRH of 250-300 m2/s2. While storms have shown less intensity with time, the environment ahead of them remains conditionally favorable for a brief tornado or isolated damaging gusts for a couple more hours this evening. The exact eastward extent of the severe risk is uncertain as nocturnal stabilization has begun with the loss of diurnal heating. However, a very moist low-level environment (dewpoints in the 70s F) may slow stabilization and allow storms to remain near surface-based into parts of eastern DE and southern NJ. ..Lyons/Bunting.. 06/06/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PHI...LWX... LAT...LON 39137579 39227615 39357629 39507623 39647603 39717568 39747525 39667496 39567474 39457464 39287476 39107488 39067499 39057509 39077543 39137579 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0751 PM CDT Wed Jun 05 2024 Valid 060100Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SEVERAL REGIONS OF THE CONUS THIS EVENING...FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC...AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF STATES AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... A few severe storms remain possible across portions of the Upper Midwest, Great Lakes, Mid-Atlantic, Rio Grande Valley of Texas, and northern Mississippi region. ...01z Update... Strong 500mb speed max is digging southeast across the Dakotas toward northern IL early this evening. Steep lapse rates and weak buoyancy are noted north of the jet across southern MN into central WI. 00z sounding from MPX supports this with SBCAPE around 350 J/kg and deep west-northwesterly flow. Numerous showers/isolated thunderstorms have developed within this regime and gusty winds are common with this convection. This trend will continue for the next several hours into WI before boundary-layer cooling weakens low-level lapse rates. Downstream across the OH Valley into the Delmarva, notable short-wave trough is progressing across southeast MI/OH. Veered LLJ has responded to this feature across the Mid-Atlantic which is aiding low-level warm advection into the Delmarva. A corridor of scattered supercells has evolved along the warm front draped across the Delmarva and this activity will pose some brief tornado risk along with the threat for damaging winds as it spreads across northern DE into southern NJ over the next few hours. Otherwise, gusty winds will be the primary concern with convection as it progresses across the upper OH Valley this evening. An MCS has matured over the central Gulf States early this evening. Latest radar data suggests an organized strong squall line will advance along the leading edge of this complex across northern AL into southern portions of TN later this evening. Some increase in 1km winds is noted across this region so this activity should be maintained for the next several hours as it spreads downstream. Have adjusted severe wind probabilities ahead of the MCS to account for this threat. BRO/CRP soundings are typically capped with high PW values this evening. However, very warm boundary-layer temperatures have contributed to weak CINH and large instability across the middle Rio Grande Valley. Isolated convection should propagate south along the international border with an attendant threat for hail/wind. ..Darrow.. 06/06/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0751 PM CDT Wed Jun 05 2024 Valid 060100Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SEVERAL REGIONS OF THE CONUS THIS EVENING...FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC...AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF STATES AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... A few severe storms remain possible across portions of the Upper Midwest, Great Lakes, Mid-Atlantic, Rio Grande Valley of Texas, and northern Mississippi region. ...01z Update... Strong 500mb speed max is digging southeast across the Dakotas toward northern IL early this evening. Steep lapse rates and weak buoyancy are noted north of the jet across southern MN into central WI. 00z sounding from MPX supports this with SBCAPE around 350 J/kg and deep west-northwesterly flow. Numerous showers/isolated thunderstorms have developed within this regime and gusty winds are common with this convection. This trend will continue for the next several hours into WI before boundary-layer cooling weakens low-level lapse rates. Downstream across the OH Valley into the Delmarva, notable short-wave trough is progressing across southeast MI/OH. Veered LLJ has responded to this feature across the Mid-Atlantic which is aiding low-level warm advection into the Delmarva. A corridor of scattered supercells has evolved along the warm front draped across the Delmarva and this activity will pose some brief tornado risk along with the threat for damaging winds as it spreads across northern DE into southern NJ over the next few hours. Otherwise, gusty winds will be the primary concern with convection as it progresses across the upper OH Valley this evening. An MCS has matured over the central Gulf States early this evening. Latest radar data suggests an organized strong squall line will advance along the leading edge of this complex across northern AL into southern portions of TN later this evening. Some increase in 1km winds is noted across this region so this activity should be maintained for the next several hours as it spreads downstream. Have adjusted severe wind probabilities ahead of the MCS to account for this threat. BRO/CRP soundings are typically capped with high PW values this evening. However, very warm boundary-layer temperatures have contributed to weak CINH and large instability across the middle Rio Grande Valley. Isolated convection should propagate south along the international border with an attendant threat for hail/wind. ..Darrow.. 06/06/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0751 PM CDT Wed Jun 05 2024 Valid 060100Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SEVERAL REGIONS OF THE CONUS THIS EVENING...FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC...AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF STATES AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... A few severe storms remain possible across portions of the Upper Midwest, Great Lakes, Mid-Atlantic, Rio Grande Valley of Texas, and northern Mississippi region. ...01z Update... Strong 500mb speed max is digging southeast across the Dakotas toward northern IL early this evening. Steep lapse rates and weak buoyancy are noted north of the jet across southern MN into central WI. 00z sounding from MPX supports this with SBCAPE around 350 J/kg and deep west-northwesterly flow. Numerous showers/isolated thunderstorms have developed within this regime and gusty winds are common with this convection. This trend will continue for the next several hours into WI before boundary-layer cooling weakens low-level lapse rates. Downstream across the OH Valley into the Delmarva, notable short-wave trough is progressing across southeast MI/OH. Veered LLJ has responded to this feature across the Mid-Atlantic which is aiding low-level warm advection into the Delmarva. A corridor of scattered supercells has evolved along the warm front draped across the Delmarva and this activity will pose some brief tornado risk along with the threat for damaging winds as it spreads across northern DE into southern NJ over the next few hours. Otherwise, gusty winds will be the primary concern with convection as it progresses across the upper OH Valley this evening. An MCS has matured over the central Gulf States early this evening. Latest radar data suggests an organized strong squall line will advance along the leading edge of this complex across northern AL into southern portions of TN later this evening. Some increase in 1km winds is noted across this region so this activity should be maintained for the next several hours as it spreads downstream. Have adjusted severe wind probabilities ahead of the MCS to account for this threat. BRO/CRP soundings are typically capped with high PW values this evening. However, very warm boundary-layer temperatures have contributed to weak CINH and large instability across the middle Rio Grande Valley. Isolated convection should propagate south along the international border with an attendant threat for hail/wind. ..Darrow.. 06/06/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0751 PM CDT Wed Jun 05 2024 Valid 060100Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SEVERAL REGIONS OF THE CONUS THIS EVENING...FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC...AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF STATES AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... A few severe storms remain possible across portions of the Upper Midwest, Great Lakes, Mid-Atlantic, Rio Grande Valley of Texas, and northern Mississippi region. ...01z Update... Strong 500mb speed max is digging southeast across the Dakotas toward northern IL early this evening. Steep lapse rates and weak buoyancy are noted north of the jet across southern MN into central WI. 00z sounding from MPX supports this with SBCAPE around 350 J/kg and deep west-northwesterly flow. Numerous showers/isolated thunderstorms have developed within this regime and gusty winds are common with this convection. This trend will continue for the next several hours into WI before boundary-layer cooling weakens low-level lapse rates. Downstream across the OH Valley into the Delmarva, notable short-wave trough is progressing across southeast MI/OH. Veered LLJ has responded to this feature across the Mid-Atlantic which is aiding low-level warm advection into the Delmarva. A corridor of scattered supercells has evolved along the warm front draped across the Delmarva and this activity will pose some brief tornado risk along with the threat for damaging winds as it spreads across northern DE into southern NJ over the next few hours. Otherwise, gusty winds will be the primary concern with convection as it progresses across the upper OH Valley this evening. An MCS has matured over the central Gulf States early this evening. Latest radar data suggests an organized strong squall line will advance along the leading edge of this complex across northern AL into southern portions of TN later this evening. Some increase in 1km winds is noted across this region so this activity should be maintained for the next several hours as it spreads downstream. Have adjusted severe wind probabilities ahead of the MCS to account for this threat. BRO/CRP soundings are typically capped with high PW values this evening. However, very warm boundary-layer temperatures have contributed to weak CINH and large instability across the middle Rio Grande Valley. Isolated convection should propagate south along the international border with an attendant threat for hail/wind. ..Darrow.. 06/06/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0751 PM CDT Wed Jun 05 2024 Valid 060100Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SEVERAL REGIONS OF THE CONUS THIS EVENING...FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC...AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF STATES AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... A few severe storms remain possible across portions of the Upper Midwest, Great Lakes, Mid-Atlantic, Rio Grande Valley of Texas, and northern Mississippi region. ...01z Update... Strong 500mb speed max is digging southeast across the Dakotas toward northern IL early this evening. Steep lapse rates and weak buoyancy are noted north of the jet across southern MN into central WI. 00z sounding from MPX supports this with SBCAPE around 350 J/kg and deep west-northwesterly flow. Numerous showers/isolated thunderstorms have developed within this regime and gusty winds are common with this convection. This trend will continue for the next several hours into WI before boundary-layer cooling weakens low-level lapse rates. Downstream across the OH Valley into the Delmarva, notable short-wave trough is progressing across southeast MI/OH. Veered LLJ has responded to this feature across the Mid-Atlantic which is aiding low-level warm advection into the Delmarva. A corridor of scattered supercells has evolved along the warm front draped across the Delmarva and this activity will pose some brief tornado risk along with the threat for damaging winds as it spreads across northern DE into southern NJ over the next few hours. Otherwise, gusty winds will be the primary concern with convection as it progresses across the upper OH Valley this evening. An MCS has matured over the central Gulf States early this evening. Latest radar data suggests an organized strong squall line will advance along the leading edge of this complex across northern AL into southern portions of TN later this evening. Some increase in 1km winds is noted across this region so this activity should be maintained for the next several hours as it spreads downstream. Have adjusted severe wind probabilities ahead of the MCS to account for this threat. BRO/CRP soundings are typically capped with high PW values this evening. However, very warm boundary-layer temperatures have contributed to weak CINH and large instability across the middle Rio Grande Valley. Isolated convection should propagate south along the international border with an attendant threat for hail/wind. ..Darrow.. 06/06/2024 Read more

MD 1177 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF FAR NORTHEAST VA AND CENTRAL MD
Mesoscale Discussion 1177 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0613 PM CDT Wed Jun 05 2024 Areas affected...portions of far northeast VA and central MD Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 052313Z - 060045Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Brief tornadoes will remain possible for another couple of hours with small supercells near the VA/MD border. Convective coverage should remain very isolated and a WW is not expected. DISCUSSION...As of 2305 UTC, regional radar analysis showed a cluster of low-topped storms near the VA/MD border have taken on transient supercell characteristics. Several reports of funnel clouds and a brief tornado have been observed with theses storms over the last 90 min. The environment remains broadly favorable for convection with 1000-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE, much of which is focused below 4 km. Deep-layer shear is not supportive of longer-lived supercells, but area VADs do show clockwise curved hodographs in the lowest 1-2 km. With a very moist air mass in place (low 70s F surface dewpoints) low cloud bases and strong low-level updrafts will allow for efficient stretching of stream-wise and ambient vorticity with these small storms. A brief tornado or two will remain possible for another couple of hours as these storms move east. Storms should gradually wane with the loss of diurnal heating. Given the limited convective coverage and the relatively transient nature of storm organization, a WW is not expected, though trends will continue to be monitored. ..Lyons/Bunting.. 06/05/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PHI...LWX... LAT...LON 39647655 39657614 39557603 39377603 39187611 38947632 38917645 38937689 38957720 38997742 39047754 39277754 39617716 39647655 Read more

No watches are valid as of Wed Jun 5 23:32:02 UTC 2024.

MD 1178 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN ALABAMA
Mesoscale Discussion 1178 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0630 PM CDT Wed Jun 05 2024 Areas affected...portions of western Alabama Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 052330Z - 060030Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...A few strong wind gusts remain possible with a bowing linear segment for at least a couple more hours. However, the severe threat should remain isolated and a WW issuance is not expected. DISCUSSION...Multicellular convection, amid a weak shear environment, has managed to organize into a bowing segment, with tree damage recently reported in Jasper County, MS. This linear segment should continue to progress northeastward toward an unstable airmass (characterized by 2000+ J/kg MLCAPE) for at least a couple more hours. Until nocturnal cooling sets in, additional damaging gusts may accompany portions of the line. Nonetheless, the severe threat should remain isolated and a WW issuance is not expected. ..Squitieri/Bunting.. 06/05/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BMX...HUN...MOB... LAT...LON 32718694 32248725 32048759 32078792 32318808 32508809 33488818 34088803 34168791 34208764 34188745 34048724 33808700 33438681 32718694 Read more

MD 1177 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF FAR NORTHEAST VA AND CENTRAL MD
Mesoscale Discussion 1177 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0613 PM CDT Wed Jun 05 2024 Areas affected...portions of far northeast VA and central MD Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 052313Z - 060045Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Brief tornadoes will remain possible for another couple of hours with small supercells near the VA/MD border. Convective coverage should remain very isolated and a WW is not expected. DISCUSSION...As of 2305 UTC, regional radar analysis showed a cluster of low-topped storms near the VA/MD border have taken on transient supercell characteristics. Several reports of funnel clouds and a brief tornado have been observed with theses storms over the last 90 min. The environment remains broadly favorable for convection with 1000-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE, much of which is focused below 4 km. Deep-layer shear is not supportive of longer-lived supercells, but area VADs do show clockwise curved hodographs in the lowest 1-2 km. With a very moist air mass in place (low 70s F surface dewpoints) low cloud bases and strong low-level updrafts will allow for efficient stretching of stream-wise and ambient vorticity with these small storms. A brief tornado or two will remain possible for another couple of hours as these storms move east. Storms should gradually wane with the loss of diurnal heating. Given the limited convective coverage and the relatively transient nature of storm organization, a WW is not expected, though trends will continue to be monitored. ..Lyons/Bunting.. 06/05/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PHI...LWX... LAT...LON 39647655 39657614 39557603 39377603 39187611 38947632 38917645 38937689 38957720 38997742 39047754 39277754 39617716 39647655 Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Wed Jun 5 22:32:01 UTC 2024.

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0523 PM CDT Wed Jun 05 2024 Valid 071200Z - 131200Z The large-scale pattern will change very little through D4/Saturday, with a mid to upper-trough over the eastern/northeastern CONUS, and relatively weak ridging extending through the Rockies and Pacific Northwest. By late this weekend into early next week, however, a north Pacific trough will move onshore, while a southern stream mid to upper-level cyclone progresses northeastward into the Southwest. Dry and hot conditions will persist across the Southwest in a deeply mixed air mass through most of the extended period, where receptive fuels will continue to become even more prone to fire starts and spread. However, only modest mid-level flow is anticipated throughout forecast, which should generally mitigate overall meteorological fire spread conditions due to a lack of higher momentum transfer from aloft. The exception may be on D8/Wednesday, as there is decent agreement within the extended ensembles of increasing mid-level flow accompanying a closed low moving onshore near southern CA. For D3/Friday, a couple of subtle shortwave troughs are expected to round the ridge over NM and southeast CO. Some isolated dry lightning may accompany these features across portions of northern NM, but current fuels and limited coverage do not warrant Critical probabilities at this time. A deepening lee surface low, and the resulting pressure gradient, will result in breezy, dry southerly surface winds across the High Plains of NM and the TX panhandle. An Elevated area may need to be introduced in future forecasts for these regions D3/Friday. By D4/Saturday localized elevated conditions, due to increasing surface winds, may develop across southwestern NM/Gila Mountains, and portions of central and eastern AZ. Early this week, wetting rains may help slow curing/worsening fuel conditions across the central and southern FL. ..Barnes.. 06/05/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0523 PM CDT Wed Jun 05 2024 Valid 071200Z - 131200Z The large-scale pattern will change very little through D4/Saturday, with a mid to upper-trough over the eastern/northeastern CONUS, and relatively weak ridging extending through the Rockies and Pacific Northwest. By late this weekend into early next week, however, a north Pacific trough will move onshore, while a southern stream mid to upper-level cyclone progresses northeastward into the Southwest. Dry and hot conditions will persist across the Southwest in a deeply mixed air mass through most of the extended period, where receptive fuels will continue to become even more prone to fire starts and spread. However, only modest mid-level flow is anticipated throughout forecast, which should generally mitigate overall meteorological fire spread conditions due to a lack of higher momentum transfer from aloft. The exception may be on D8/Wednesday, as there is decent agreement within the extended ensembles of increasing mid-level flow accompanying a closed low moving onshore near southern CA. For D3/Friday, a couple of subtle shortwave troughs are expected to round the ridge over NM and southeast CO. Some isolated dry lightning may accompany these features across portions of northern NM, but current fuels and limited coverage do not warrant Critical probabilities at this time. A deepening lee surface low, and the resulting pressure gradient, will result in breezy, dry southerly surface winds across the High Plains of NM and the TX panhandle. An Elevated area may need to be introduced in future forecasts for these regions D3/Friday. By D4/Saturday localized elevated conditions, due to increasing surface winds, may develop across southwestern NM/Gila Mountains, and portions of central and eastern AZ. Early this week, wetting rains may help slow curing/worsening fuel conditions across the central and southern FL. ..Barnes.. 06/05/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0523 PM CDT Wed Jun 05 2024 Valid 071200Z - 131200Z The large-scale pattern will change very little through D4/Saturday, with a mid to upper-trough over the eastern/northeastern CONUS, and relatively weak ridging extending through the Rockies and Pacific Northwest. By late this weekend into early next week, however, a north Pacific trough will move onshore, while a southern stream mid to upper-level cyclone progresses northeastward into the Southwest. Dry and hot conditions will persist across the Southwest in a deeply mixed air mass through most of the extended period, where receptive fuels will continue to become even more prone to fire starts and spread. However, only modest mid-level flow is anticipated throughout forecast, which should generally mitigate overall meteorological fire spread conditions due to a lack of higher momentum transfer from aloft. The exception may be on D8/Wednesday, as there is decent agreement within the extended ensembles of increasing mid-level flow accompanying a closed low moving onshore near southern CA. For D3/Friday, a couple of subtle shortwave troughs are expected to round the ridge over NM and southeast CO. Some isolated dry lightning may accompany these features across portions of northern NM, but current fuels and limited coverage do not warrant Critical probabilities at this time. A deepening lee surface low, and the resulting pressure gradient, will result in breezy, dry southerly surface winds across the High Plains of NM and the TX panhandle. An Elevated area may need to be introduced in future forecasts for these regions D3/Friday. By D4/Saturday localized elevated conditions, due to increasing surface winds, may develop across southwestern NM/Gila Mountains, and portions of central and eastern AZ. Early this week, wetting rains may help slow curing/worsening fuel conditions across the central and southern FL. ..Barnes.. 06/05/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more