Severe Storms

Public Severe Weather Outlook
PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1136 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2025 ...Severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the northern Plains into the upper Mississippi Valley this afternoon and tonight... * LOCATIONS... Southern Minnesota Eastern South Dakota Northern Iowa * HAZARDS... Widespread damaging winds, some hurricane force A couple of tornadoes Isolated large hail up to baseball size * SUMMARY... Severe storm clusters are expected to form this afternoon in South Dakota and then spread southeastward into Minnesota and Iowa through tonight. Swaths of damaging winds, potentially 75-90 mph, a few tornadoes and isolated large hail will all be possible. Preparedness actions... Review your severe weather safety procedures for the possibility of dangerous weather today. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio, weather.gov, or other media for watches and warnings. A watch means that conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms over the next several hours. If a severe thunderstorm warning is issued for your area, move to a place of safety, ideally in an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. && ..Thompson.. 07/28/2025 Read more

Public Severe Weather Outlook
PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1136 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2025 ...Severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the northern Plains into the upper Mississippi Valley this afternoon and tonight... * LOCATIONS... Southern Minnesota Eastern South Dakota Northern Iowa * HAZARDS... Widespread damaging winds, some hurricane force A couple of tornadoes Isolated large hail up to baseball size * SUMMARY... Severe storm clusters are expected to form this afternoon in South Dakota and then spread southeastward into Minnesota and Iowa through tonight. Swaths of damaging winds, potentially 75-90 mph, a few tornadoes and isolated large hail will all be possible. Preparedness actions... Review your severe weather safety procedures for the possibility of dangerous weather today. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio, weather.gov, or other media for watches and warnings. A watch means that conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms over the next several hours. If a severe thunderstorm warning is issued for your area, move to a place of safety, ideally in an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. && ..Thompson.. 07/28/2025 Read more

Public Severe Weather Outlook
PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1136 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2025 ...Severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the northern Plains into the upper Mississippi Valley this afternoon and tonight... * LOCATIONS... Southern Minnesota Eastern South Dakota Northern Iowa * HAZARDS... Widespread damaging winds, some hurricane force A couple of tornadoes Isolated large hail up to baseball size * SUMMARY... Severe storm clusters are expected to form this afternoon in South Dakota and then spread southeastward into Minnesota and Iowa through tonight. Swaths of damaging winds, potentially 75-90 mph, a few tornadoes and isolated large hail will all be possible. Preparedness actions... Review your severe weather safety procedures for the possibility of dangerous weather today. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio, weather.gov, or other media for watches and warnings. A watch means that conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms over the next several hours. If a severe thunderstorm warning is issued for your area, move to a place of safety, ideally in an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. && ..Thompson.. 07/28/2025 Read more

Public Severe Weather Outlook
PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1136 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2025 ...Severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the northern Plains into the upper Mississippi Valley this afternoon and tonight... * LOCATIONS... Southern Minnesota Eastern South Dakota Northern Iowa * HAZARDS... Widespread damaging winds, some hurricane force A couple of tornadoes Isolated large hail up to baseball size * SUMMARY... Severe storm clusters are expected to form this afternoon in South Dakota and then spread southeastward into Minnesota and Iowa through tonight. Swaths of damaging winds, potentially 75-90 mph, a few tornadoes and isolated large hail will all be possible. Preparedness actions... Review your severe weather safety procedures for the possibility of dangerous weather today. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio, weather.gov, or other media for watches and warnings. A watch means that conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms over the next several hours. If a severe thunderstorm warning is issued for your area, move to a place of safety, ideally in an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. && ..Thompson.. 07/28/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Mon Jul 28 2025 Valid 281630Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT FROM EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND NORTHERN IOWA... ...SUMMARY... Severe storm clusters are expected to form this afternoon in South Dakota and then spread southeastward into Minnesota and Iowa through tonight. Swaths of damaging winds, potentially 75-90 mph, a few tornadoes and isolated large hail will all be possible. ...Dakotas to MN/IA through tonight... Around the northern periphery of a midlevel high covering the southern Plains and Southeast, a series of embedded speed maxima will progress from MT across the Dakotas to MN through early Tuesday. Elevated convection is ongoing in association with two such speed maxima - one over ND and another moving eastward over eastern MT. At the surface, a lee cyclone is present near the SD/NE border, and a baroclinic zone arcs into northeast SD and then southeastward across southwest MN into northern IA. A prior outflow boundary (from dissipated overnight convection) will become more diffuse with time as a result of strong surface heating across IA/NE/SD within the old cold pool. The elevated convection across southern ND, and moving from MT into southwest ND, could persist in the post-frontal environment with weak warm advection atop the frontal surface. Steep midlevel lapse rates and 40-50 kt midlevel flow suggests a continued threat for occasional severe outflow gusts and isolated large hail. The more substantial severe-storm threat is expected to evolve farther southeast by mid-late afternoon along the baroclinic zone in SD, to the northeast of the lee cyclone. Strong surface heating, continued moisture advection and evapotranspiration will lead to the development of strong-extreme buoyancy (3000-4500+ J/kg MLCAPE) beneath an elevated mixed layer with 8.5-9 C/km midlevel lapse rates. Storms that form in SD are then expected to congeal into a cluster or two that will subsequently spread east-southeastward along the more northwest-southeast oriented baroclinic zone now noted in visible imagery and surface observations from southwest MN into northern IA. The thermodynamic environment will favor both intense updrafts and downdrafts, while deep-layer vertical shear will be sufficient for an organized/bowing MCS. Thus, there will be the potential for swaths of significant-severe outflow (75-90 mph), as well as isolated large hail and a few tornadoes (either with initially discrete supercells or with embedded circulations with bowing segments). ...Central MT this afternoon through early tonight... An embedded speed max will crest the ridge and move from ID to southwest MT this afternoon/evening. Residual boundary-layer dewpoints in the mid-upper 50s in the post-frontal environment, along with surface heating and the north edge of the steeper midlevel lapse rates will favor scattered thunderstorm development by early-mid afternoon (near and just northeast of the higher terrain southwest into central MT). MLCAPE of 1500-2000 J/kg, effective bulk shear in excess of 40 kt and seasonably cool midlevel temperatures suggest the potential for initial supercells with large hail (1-2.5 inches in diameter), and also the potential for upscale growth into a cluster with the attendant threat for wind damage. ..Thompson/Thornton.. 07/28/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Mon Jul 28 2025 Valid 281630Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT FROM EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND NORTHERN IOWA... ...SUMMARY... Severe storm clusters are expected to form this afternoon in South Dakota and then spread southeastward into Minnesota and Iowa through tonight. Swaths of damaging winds, potentially 75-90 mph, a few tornadoes and isolated large hail will all be possible. ...Dakotas to MN/IA through tonight... Around the northern periphery of a midlevel high covering the southern Plains and Southeast, a series of embedded speed maxima will progress from MT across the Dakotas to MN through early Tuesday. Elevated convection is ongoing in association with two such speed maxima - one over ND and another moving eastward over eastern MT. At the surface, a lee cyclone is present near the SD/NE border, and a baroclinic zone arcs into northeast SD and then southeastward across southwest MN into northern IA. A prior outflow boundary (from dissipated overnight convection) will become more diffuse with time as a result of strong surface heating across IA/NE/SD within the old cold pool. The elevated convection across southern ND, and moving from MT into southwest ND, could persist in the post-frontal environment with weak warm advection atop the frontal surface. Steep midlevel lapse rates and 40-50 kt midlevel flow suggests a continued threat for occasional severe outflow gusts and isolated large hail. The more substantial severe-storm threat is expected to evolve farther southeast by mid-late afternoon along the baroclinic zone in SD, to the northeast of the lee cyclone. Strong surface heating, continued moisture advection and evapotranspiration will lead to the development of strong-extreme buoyancy (3000-4500+ J/kg MLCAPE) beneath an elevated mixed layer with 8.5-9 C/km midlevel lapse rates. Storms that form in SD are then expected to congeal into a cluster or two that will subsequently spread east-southeastward along the more northwest-southeast oriented baroclinic zone now noted in visible imagery and surface observations from southwest MN into northern IA. The thermodynamic environment will favor both intense updrafts and downdrafts, while deep-layer vertical shear will be sufficient for an organized/bowing MCS. Thus, there will be the potential for swaths of significant-severe outflow (75-90 mph), as well as isolated large hail and a few tornadoes (either with initially discrete supercells or with embedded circulations with bowing segments). ...Central MT this afternoon through early tonight... An embedded speed max will crest the ridge and move from ID to southwest MT this afternoon/evening. Residual boundary-layer dewpoints in the mid-upper 50s in the post-frontal environment, along with surface heating and the north edge of the steeper midlevel lapse rates will favor scattered thunderstorm development by early-mid afternoon (near and just northeast of the higher terrain southwest into central MT). MLCAPE of 1500-2000 J/kg, effective bulk shear in excess of 40 kt and seasonably cool midlevel temperatures suggest the potential for initial supercells with large hail (1-2.5 inches in diameter), and also the potential for upscale growth into a cluster with the attendant threat for wind damage. ..Thompson/Thornton.. 07/28/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Mon Jul 28 2025 Valid 281630Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT FROM EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND NORTHERN IOWA... ...SUMMARY... Severe storm clusters are expected to form this afternoon in South Dakota and then spread southeastward into Minnesota and Iowa through tonight. Swaths of damaging winds, potentially 75-90 mph, a few tornadoes and isolated large hail will all be possible. ...Dakotas to MN/IA through tonight... Around the northern periphery of a midlevel high covering the southern Plains and Southeast, a series of embedded speed maxima will progress from MT across the Dakotas to MN through early Tuesday. Elevated convection is ongoing in association with two such speed maxima - one over ND and another moving eastward over eastern MT. At the surface, a lee cyclone is present near the SD/NE border, and a baroclinic zone arcs into northeast SD and then southeastward across southwest MN into northern IA. A prior outflow boundary (from dissipated overnight convection) will become more diffuse with time as a result of strong surface heating across IA/NE/SD within the old cold pool. The elevated convection across southern ND, and moving from MT into southwest ND, could persist in the post-frontal environment with weak warm advection atop the frontal surface. Steep midlevel lapse rates and 40-50 kt midlevel flow suggests a continued threat for occasional severe outflow gusts and isolated large hail. The more substantial severe-storm threat is expected to evolve farther southeast by mid-late afternoon along the baroclinic zone in SD, to the northeast of the lee cyclone. Strong surface heating, continued moisture advection and evapotranspiration will lead to the development of strong-extreme buoyancy (3000-4500+ J/kg MLCAPE) beneath an elevated mixed layer with 8.5-9 C/km midlevel lapse rates. Storms that form in SD are then expected to congeal into a cluster or two that will subsequently spread east-southeastward along the more northwest-southeast oriented baroclinic zone now noted in visible imagery and surface observations from southwest MN into northern IA. The thermodynamic environment will favor both intense updrafts and downdrafts, while deep-layer vertical shear will be sufficient for an organized/bowing MCS. Thus, there will be the potential for swaths of significant-severe outflow (75-90 mph), as well as isolated large hail and a few tornadoes (either with initially discrete supercells or with embedded circulations with bowing segments). ...Central MT this afternoon through early tonight... An embedded speed max will crest the ridge and move from ID to southwest MT this afternoon/evening. Residual boundary-layer dewpoints in the mid-upper 50s in the post-frontal environment, along with surface heating and the north edge of the steeper midlevel lapse rates will favor scattered thunderstorm development by early-mid afternoon (near and just northeast of the higher terrain southwest into central MT). MLCAPE of 1500-2000 J/kg, effective bulk shear in excess of 40 kt and seasonably cool midlevel temperatures suggest the potential for initial supercells with large hail (1-2.5 inches in diameter), and also the potential for upscale growth into a cluster with the attendant threat for wind damage. ..Thompson/Thornton.. 07/28/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Mon Jul 28 2025 Valid 281630Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT FROM EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND NORTHERN IOWA... ...SUMMARY... Severe storm clusters are expected to form this afternoon in South Dakota and then spread southeastward into Minnesota and Iowa through tonight. Swaths of damaging winds, potentially 75-90 mph, a few tornadoes and isolated large hail will all be possible. ...Dakotas to MN/IA through tonight... Around the northern periphery of a midlevel high covering the southern Plains and Southeast, a series of embedded speed maxima will progress from MT across the Dakotas to MN through early Tuesday. Elevated convection is ongoing in association with two such speed maxima - one over ND and another moving eastward over eastern MT. At the surface, a lee cyclone is present near the SD/NE border, and a baroclinic zone arcs into northeast SD and then southeastward across southwest MN into northern IA. A prior outflow boundary (from dissipated overnight convection) will become more diffuse with time as a result of strong surface heating across IA/NE/SD within the old cold pool. The elevated convection across southern ND, and moving from MT into southwest ND, could persist in the post-frontal environment with weak warm advection atop the frontal surface. Steep midlevel lapse rates and 40-50 kt midlevel flow suggests a continued threat for occasional severe outflow gusts and isolated large hail. The more substantial severe-storm threat is expected to evolve farther southeast by mid-late afternoon along the baroclinic zone in SD, to the northeast of the lee cyclone. Strong surface heating, continued moisture advection and evapotranspiration will lead to the development of strong-extreme buoyancy (3000-4500+ J/kg MLCAPE) beneath an elevated mixed layer with 8.5-9 C/km midlevel lapse rates. Storms that form in SD are then expected to congeal into a cluster or two that will subsequently spread east-southeastward along the more northwest-southeast oriented baroclinic zone now noted in visible imagery and surface observations from southwest MN into northern IA. The thermodynamic environment will favor both intense updrafts and downdrafts, while deep-layer vertical shear will be sufficient for an organized/bowing MCS. Thus, there will be the potential for swaths of significant-severe outflow (75-90 mph), as well as isolated large hail and a few tornadoes (either with initially discrete supercells or with embedded circulations with bowing segments). ...Central MT this afternoon through early tonight... An embedded speed max will crest the ridge and move from ID to southwest MT this afternoon/evening. Residual boundary-layer dewpoints in the mid-upper 50s in the post-frontal environment, along with surface heating and the north edge of the steeper midlevel lapse rates will favor scattered thunderstorm development by early-mid afternoon (near and just northeast of the higher terrain southwest into central MT). MLCAPE of 1500-2000 J/kg, effective bulk shear in excess of 40 kt and seasonably cool midlevel temperatures suggest the potential for initial supercells with large hail (1-2.5 inches in diameter), and also the potential for upscale growth into a cluster with the attendant threat for wind damage. ..Thompson/Thornton.. 07/28/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Mon Jul 28 2025 Valid 281630Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT FROM EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND NORTHERN IOWA... ...SUMMARY... Severe storm clusters are expected to form this afternoon in South Dakota and then spread southeastward into Minnesota and Iowa through tonight. Swaths of damaging winds, potentially 75-90 mph, a few tornadoes and isolated large hail will all be possible. ...Dakotas to MN/IA through tonight... Around the northern periphery of a midlevel high covering the southern Plains and Southeast, a series of embedded speed maxima will progress from MT across the Dakotas to MN through early Tuesday. Elevated convection is ongoing in association with two such speed maxima - one over ND and another moving eastward over eastern MT. At the surface, a lee cyclone is present near the SD/NE border, and a baroclinic zone arcs into northeast SD and then southeastward across southwest MN into northern IA. A prior outflow boundary (from dissipated overnight convection) will become more diffuse with time as a result of strong surface heating across IA/NE/SD within the old cold pool. The elevated convection across southern ND, and moving from MT into southwest ND, could persist in the post-frontal environment with weak warm advection atop the frontal surface. Steep midlevel lapse rates and 40-50 kt midlevel flow suggests a continued threat for occasional severe outflow gusts and isolated large hail. The more substantial severe-storm threat is expected to evolve farther southeast by mid-late afternoon along the baroclinic zone in SD, to the northeast of the lee cyclone. Strong surface heating, continued moisture advection and evapotranspiration will lead to the development of strong-extreme buoyancy (3000-4500+ J/kg MLCAPE) beneath an elevated mixed layer with 8.5-9 C/km midlevel lapse rates. Storms that form in SD are then expected to congeal into a cluster or two that will subsequently spread east-southeastward along the more northwest-southeast oriented baroclinic zone now noted in visible imagery and surface observations from southwest MN into northern IA. The thermodynamic environment will favor both intense updrafts and downdrafts, while deep-layer vertical shear will be sufficient for an organized/bowing MCS. Thus, there will be the potential for swaths of significant-severe outflow (75-90 mph), as well as isolated large hail and a few tornadoes (either with initially discrete supercells or with embedded circulations with bowing segments). ...Central MT this afternoon through early tonight... An embedded speed max will crest the ridge and move from ID to southwest MT this afternoon/evening. Residual boundary-layer dewpoints in the mid-upper 50s in the post-frontal environment, along with surface heating and the north edge of the steeper midlevel lapse rates will favor scattered thunderstorm development by early-mid afternoon (near and just northeast of the higher terrain southwest into central MT). MLCAPE of 1500-2000 J/kg, effective bulk shear in excess of 40 kt and seasonably cool midlevel temperatures suggest the potential for initial supercells with large hail (1-2.5 inches in diameter), and also the potential for upscale growth into a cluster with the attendant threat for wind damage. ..Thompson/Thornton.. 07/28/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Mon Jul 28 2025 Valid 281630Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT FROM EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND NORTHERN IOWA... ...SUMMARY... Severe storm clusters are expected to form this afternoon in South Dakota and then spread southeastward into Minnesota and Iowa through tonight. Swaths of damaging winds, potentially 75-90 mph, a few tornadoes and isolated large hail will all be possible. ...Dakotas to MN/IA through tonight... Around the northern periphery of a midlevel high covering the southern Plains and Southeast, a series of embedded speed maxima will progress from MT across the Dakotas to MN through early Tuesday. Elevated convection is ongoing in association with two such speed maxima - one over ND and another moving eastward over eastern MT. At the surface, a lee cyclone is present near the SD/NE border, and a baroclinic zone arcs into northeast SD and then southeastward across southwest MN into northern IA. A prior outflow boundary (from dissipated overnight convection) will become more diffuse with time as a result of strong surface heating across IA/NE/SD within the old cold pool. The elevated convection across southern ND, and moving from MT into southwest ND, could persist in the post-frontal environment with weak warm advection atop the frontal surface. Steep midlevel lapse rates and 40-50 kt midlevel flow suggests a continued threat for occasional severe outflow gusts and isolated large hail. The more substantial severe-storm threat is expected to evolve farther southeast by mid-late afternoon along the baroclinic zone in SD, to the northeast of the lee cyclone. Strong surface heating, continued moisture advection and evapotranspiration will lead to the development of strong-extreme buoyancy (3000-4500+ J/kg MLCAPE) beneath an elevated mixed layer with 8.5-9 C/km midlevel lapse rates. Storms that form in SD are then expected to congeal into a cluster or two that will subsequently spread east-southeastward along the more northwest-southeast oriented baroclinic zone now noted in visible imagery and surface observations from southwest MN into northern IA. The thermodynamic environment will favor both intense updrafts and downdrafts, while deep-layer vertical shear will be sufficient for an organized/bowing MCS. Thus, there will be the potential for swaths of significant-severe outflow (75-90 mph), as well as isolated large hail and a few tornadoes (either with initially discrete supercells or with embedded circulations with bowing segments). ...Central MT this afternoon through early tonight... An embedded speed max will crest the ridge and move from ID to southwest MT this afternoon/evening. Residual boundary-layer dewpoints in the mid-upper 50s in the post-frontal environment, along with surface heating and the north edge of the steeper midlevel lapse rates will favor scattered thunderstorm development by early-mid afternoon (near and just northeast of the higher terrain southwest into central MT). MLCAPE of 1500-2000 J/kg, effective bulk shear in excess of 40 kt and seasonably cool midlevel temperatures suggest the potential for initial supercells with large hail (1-2.5 inches in diameter), and also the potential for upscale growth into a cluster with the attendant threat for wind damage. ..Thompson/Thornton.. 07/28/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Mon Jul 28 2025 Valid 281630Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT FROM EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND NORTHERN IOWA... ...SUMMARY... Severe storm clusters are expected to form this afternoon in South Dakota and then spread southeastward into Minnesota and Iowa through tonight. Swaths of damaging winds, potentially 75-90 mph, a few tornadoes and isolated large hail will all be possible. ...Dakotas to MN/IA through tonight... Around the northern periphery of a midlevel high covering the southern Plains and Southeast, a series of embedded speed maxima will progress from MT across the Dakotas to MN through early Tuesday. Elevated convection is ongoing in association with two such speed maxima - one over ND and another moving eastward over eastern MT. At the surface, a lee cyclone is present near the SD/NE border, and a baroclinic zone arcs into northeast SD and then southeastward across southwest MN into northern IA. A prior outflow boundary (from dissipated overnight convection) will become more diffuse with time as a result of strong surface heating across IA/NE/SD within the old cold pool. The elevated convection across southern ND, and moving from MT into southwest ND, could persist in the post-frontal environment with weak warm advection atop the frontal surface. Steep midlevel lapse rates and 40-50 kt midlevel flow suggests a continued threat for occasional severe outflow gusts and isolated large hail. The more substantial severe-storm threat is expected to evolve farther southeast by mid-late afternoon along the baroclinic zone in SD, to the northeast of the lee cyclone. Strong surface heating, continued moisture advection and evapotranspiration will lead to the development of strong-extreme buoyancy (3000-4500+ J/kg MLCAPE) beneath an elevated mixed layer with 8.5-9 C/km midlevel lapse rates. Storms that form in SD are then expected to congeal into a cluster or two that will subsequently spread east-southeastward along the more northwest-southeast oriented baroclinic zone now noted in visible imagery and surface observations from southwest MN into northern IA. The thermodynamic environment will favor both intense updrafts and downdrafts, while deep-layer vertical shear will be sufficient for an organized/bowing MCS. Thus, there will be the potential for swaths of significant-severe outflow (75-90 mph), as well as isolated large hail and a few tornadoes (either with initially discrete supercells or with embedded circulations with bowing segments). ...Central MT this afternoon through early tonight... An embedded speed max will crest the ridge and move from ID to southwest MT this afternoon/evening. Residual boundary-layer dewpoints in the mid-upper 50s in the post-frontal environment, along with surface heating and the north edge of the steeper midlevel lapse rates will favor scattered thunderstorm development by early-mid afternoon (near and just northeast of the higher terrain southwest into central MT). MLCAPE of 1500-2000 J/kg, effective bulk shear in excess of 40 kt and seasonably cool midlevel temperatures suggest the potential for initial supercells with large hail (1-2.5 inches in diameter), and also the potential for upscale growth into a cluster with the attendant threat for wind damage. ..Thompson/Thornton.. 07/28/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Mon Jul 28 2025 Valid 281630Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT FROM EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND NORTHERN IOWA... ...SUMMARY... Severe storm clusters are expected to form this afternoon in South Dakota and then spread southeastward into Minnesota and Iowa through tonight. Swaths of damaging winds, potentially 75-90 mph, a few tornadoes and isolated large hail will all be possible. ...Dakotas to MN/IA through tonight... Around the northern periphery of a midlevel high covering the southern Plains and Southeast, a series of embedded speed maxima will progress from MT across the Dakotas to MN through early Tuesday. Elevated convection is ongoing in association with two such speed maxima - one over ND and another moving eastward over eastern MT. At the surface, a lee cyclone is present near the SD/NE border, and a baroclinic zone arcs into northeast SD and then southeastward across southwest MN into northern IA. A prior outflow boundary (from dissipated overnight convection) will become more diffuse with time as a result of strong surface heating across IA/NE/SD within the old cold pool. The elevated convection across southern ND, and moving from MT into southwest ND, could persist in the post-frontal environment with weak warm advection atop the frontal surface. Steep midlevel lapse rates and 40-50 kt midlevel flow suggests a continued threat for occasional severe outflow gusts and isolated large hail. The more substantial severe-storm threat is expected to evolve farther southeast by mid-late afternoon along the baroclinic zone in SD, to the northeast of the lee cyclone. Strong surface heating, continued moisture advection and evapotranspiration will lead to the development of strong-extreme buoyancy (3000-4500+ J/kg MLCAPE) beneath an elevated mixed layer with 8.5-9 C/km midlevel lapse rates. Storms that form in SD are then expected to congeal into a cluster or two that will subsequently spread east-southeastward along the more northwest-southeast oriented baroclinic zone now noted in visible imagery and surface observations from southwest MN into northern IA. The thermodynamic environment will favor both intense updrafts and downdrafts, while deep-layer vertical shear will be sufficient for an organized/bowing MCS. Thus, there will be the potential for swaths of significant-severe outflow (75-90 mph), as well as isolated large hail and a few tornadoes (either with initially discrete supercells or with embedded circulations with bowing segments). ...Central MT this afternoon through early tonight... An embedded speed max will crest the ridge and move from ID to southwest MT this afternoon/evening. Residual boundary-layer dewpoints in the mid-upper 50s in the post-frontal environment, along with surface heating and the north edge of the steeper midlevel lapse rates will favor scattered thunderstorm development by early-mid afternoon (near and just northeast of the higher terrain southwest into central MT). MLCAPE of 1500-2000 J/kg, effective bulk shear in excess of 40 kt and seasonably cool midlevel temperatures suggest the potential for initial supercells with large hail (1-2.5 inches in diameter), and also the potential for upscale growth into a cluster with the attendant threat for wind damage. ..Thompson/Thornton.. 07/28/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Mon Jul 28 2025 Valid 281630Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT FROM EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND NORTHERN IOWA... ...SUMMARY... Severe storm clusters are expected to form this afternoon in South Dakota and then spread southeastward into Minnesota and Iowa through tonight. Swaths of damaging winds, potentially 75-90 mph, a few tornadoes and isolated large hail will all be possible. ...Dakotas to MN/IA through tonight... Around the northern periphery of a midlevel high covering the southern Plains and Southeast, a series of embedded speed maxima will progress from MT across the Dakotas to MN through early Tuesday. Elevated convection is ongoing in association with two such speed maxima - one over ND and another moving eastward over eastern MT. At the surface, a lee cyclone is present near the SD/NE border, and a baroclinic zone arcs into northeast SD and then southeastward across southwest MN into northern IA. A prior outflow boundary (from dissipated overnight convection) will become more diffuse with time as a result of strong surface heating across IA/NE/SD within the old cold pool. The elevated convection across southern ND, and moving from MT into southwest ND, could persist in the post-frontal environment with weak warm advection atop the frontal surface. Steep midlevel lapse rates and 40-50 kt midlevel flow suggests a continued threat for occasional severe outflow gusts and isolated large hail. The more substantial severe-storm threat is expected to evolve farther southeast by mid-late afternoon along the baroclinic zone in SD, to the northeast of the lee cyclone. Strong surface heating, continued moisture advection and evapotranspiration will lead to the development of strong-extreme buoyancy (3000-4500+ J/kg MLCAPE) beneath an elevated mixed layer with 8.5-9 C/km midlevel lapse rates. Storms that form in SD are then expected to congeal into a cluster or two that will subsequently spread east-southeastward along the more northwest-southeast oriented baroclinic zone now noted in visible imagery and surface observations from southwest MN into northern IA. The thermodynamic environment will favor both intense updrafts and downdrafts, while deep-layer vertical shear will be sufficient for an organized/bowing MCS. Thus, there will be the potential for swaths of significant-severe outflow (75-90 mph), as well as isolated large hail and a few tornadoes (either with initially discrete supercells or with embedded circulations with bowing segments). ...Central MT this afternoon through early tonight... An embedded speed max will crest the ridge and move from ID to southwest MT this afternoon/evening. Residual boundary-layer dewpoints in the mid-upper 50s in the post-frontal environment, along with surface heating and the north edge of the steeper midlevel lapse rates will favor scattered thunderstorm development by early-mid afternoon (near and just northeast of the higher terrain southwest into central MT). MLCAPE of 1500-2000 J/kg, effective bulk shear in excess of 40 kt and seasonably cool midlevel temperatures suggest the potential for initial supercells with large hail (1-2.5 inches in diameter), and also the potential for upscale growth into a cluster with the attendant threat for wind damage. ..Thompson/Thornton.. 07/28/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Mon Jul 28 2025 Valid 281630Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT FROM EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND NORTHERN IOWA... ...SUMMARY... Severe storm clusters are expected to form this afternoon in South Dakota and then spread southeastward into Minnesota and Iowa through tonight. Swaths of damaging winds, potentially 75-90 mph, a few tornadoes and isolated large hail will all be possible. ...Dakotas to MN/IA through tonight... Around the northern periphery of a midlevel high covering the southern Plains and Southeast, a series of embedded speed maxima will progress from MT across the Dakotas to MN through early Tuesday. Elevated convection is ongoing in association with two such speed maxima - one over ND and another moving eastward over eastern MT. At the surface, a lee cyclone is present near the SD/NE border, and a baroclinic zone arcs into northeast SD and then southeastward across southwest MN into northern IA. A prior outflow boundary (from dissipated overnight convection) will become more diffuse with time as a result of strong surface heating across IA/NE/SD within the old cold pool. The elevated convection across southern ND, and moving from MT into southwest ND, could persist in the post-frontal environment with weak warm advection atop the frontal surface. Steep midlevel lapse rates and 40-50 kt midlevel flow suggests a continued threat for occasional severe outflow gusts and isolated large hail. The more substantial severe-storm threat is expected to evolve farther southeast by mid-late afternoon along the baroclinic zone in SD, to the northeast of the lee cyclone. Strong surface heating, continued moisture advection and evapotranspiration will lead to the development of strong-extreme buoyancy (3000-4500+ J/kg MLCAPE) beneath an elevated mixed layer with 8.5-9 C/km midlevel lapse rates. Storms that form in SD are then expected to congeal into a cluster or two that will subsequently spread east-southeastward along the more northwest-southeast oriented baroclinic zone now noted in visible imagery and surface observations from southwest MN into northern IA. The thermodynamic environment will favor both intense updrafts and downdrafts, while deep-layer vertical shear will be sufficient for an organized/bowing MCS. Thus, there will be the potential for swaths of significant-severe outflow (75-90 mph), as well as isolated large hail and a few tornadoes (either with initially discrete supercells or with embedded circulations with bowing segments). ...Central MT this afternoon through early tonight... An embedded speed max will crest the ridge and move from ID to southwest MT this afternoon/evening. Residual boundary-layer dewpoints in the mid-upper 50s in the post-frontal environment, along with surface heating and the north edge of the steeper midlevel lapse rates will favor scattered thunderstorm development by early-mid afternoon (near and just northeast of the higher terrain southwest into central MT). MLCAPE of 1500-2000 J/kg, effective bulk shear in excess of 40 kt and seasonably cool midlevel temperatures suggest the potential for initial supercells with large hail (1-2.5 inches in diameter), and also the potential for upscale growth into a cluster with the attendant threat for wind damage. ..Thompson/Thornton.. 07/28/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Mon Jul 28 2025 Valid 281630Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT FROM EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND NORTHERN IOWA... ...SUMMARY... Severe storm clusters are expected to form this afternoon in South Dakota and then spread southeastward into Minnesota and Iowa through tonight. Swaths of damaging winds, potentially 75-90 mph, a few tornadoes and isolated large hail will all be possible. ...Dakotas to MN/IA through tonight... Around the northern periphery of a midlevel high covering the southern Plains and Southeast, a series of embedded speed maxima will progress from MT across the Dakotas to MN through early Tuesday. Elevated convection is ongoing in association with two such speed maxima - one over ND and another moving eastward over eastern MT. At the surface, a lee cyclone is present near the SD/NE border, and a baroclinic zone arcs into northeast SD and then southeastward across southwest MN into northern IA. A prior outflow boundary (from dissipated overnight convection) will become more diffuse with time as a result of strong surface heating across IA/NE/SD within the old cold pool. The elevated convection across southern ND, and moving from MT into southwest ND, could persist in the post-frontal environment with weak warm advection atop the frontal surface. Steep midlevel lapse rates and 40-50 kt midlevel flow suggests a continued threat for occasional severe outflow gusts and isolated large hail. The more substantial severe-storm threat is expected to evolve farther southeast by mid-late afternoon along the baroclinic zone in SD, to the northeast of the lee cyclone. Strong surface heating, continued moisture advection and evapotranspiration will lead to the development of strong-extreme buoyancy (3000-4500+ J/kg MLCAPE) beneath an elevated mixed layer with 8.5-9 C/km midlevel lapse rates. Storms that form in SD are then expected to congeal into a cluster or two that will subsequently spread east-southeastward along the more northwest-southeast oriented baroclinic zone now noted in visible imagery and surface observations from southwest MN into northern IA. The thermodynamic environment will favor both intense updrafts and downdrafts, while deep-layer vertical shear will be sufficient for an organized/bowing MCS. Thus, there will be the potential for swaths of significant-severe outflow (75-90 mph), as well as isolated large hail and a few tornadoes (either with initially discrete supercells or with embedded circulations with bowing segments). ...Central MT this afternoon through early tonight... An embedded speed max will crest the ridge and move from ID to southwest MT this afternoon/evening. Residual boundary-layer dewpoints in the mid-upper 50s in the post-frontal environment, along with surface heating and the north edge of the steeper midlevel lapse rates will favor scattered thunderstorm development by early-mid afternoon (near and just northeast of the higher terrain southwest into central MT). MLCAPE of 1500-2000 J/kg, effective bulk shear in excess of 40 kt and seasonably cool midlevel temperatures suggest the potential for initial supercells with large hail (1-2.5 inches in diameter), and also the potential for upscale growth into a cluster with the attendant threat for wind damage. ..Thompson/Thornton.. 07/28/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Mon Jul 28 2025 Valid 281630Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT FROM EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND NORTHERN IOWA... ...SUMMARY... Severe storm clusters are expected to form this afternoon in South Dakota and then spread southeastward into Minnesota and Iowa through tonight. Swaths of damaging winds, potentially 75-90 mph, a few tornadoes and isolated large hail will all be possible. ...Dakotas to MN/IA through tonight... Around the northern periphery of a midlevel high covering the southern Plains and Southeast, a series of embedded speed maxima will progress from MT across the Dakotas to MN through early Tuesday. Elevated convection is ongoing in association with two such speed maxima - one over ND and another moving eastward over eastern MT. At the surface, a lee cyclone is present near the SD/NE border, and a baroclinic zone arcs into northeast SD and then southeastward across southwest MN into northern IA. A prior outflow boundary (from dissipated overnight convection) will become more diffuse with time as a result of strong surface heating across IA/NE/SD within the old cold pool. The elevated convection across southern ND, and moving from MT into southwest ND, could persist in the post-frontal environment with weak warm advection atop the frontal surface. Steep midlevel lapse rates and 40-50 kt midlevel flow suggests a continued threat for occasional severe outflow gusts and isolated large hail. The more substantial severe-storm threat is expected to evolve farther southeast by mid-late afternoon along the baroclinic zone in SD, to the northeast of the lee cyclone. Strong surface heating, continued moisture advection and evapotranspiration will lead to the development of strong-extreme buoyancy (3000-4500+ J/kg MLCAPE) beneath an elevated mixed layer with 8.5-9 C/km midlevel lapse rates. Storms that form in SD are then expected to congeal into a cluster or two that will subsequently spread east-southeastward along the more northwest-southeast oriented baroclinic zone now noted in visible imagery and surface observations from southwest MN into northern IA. The thermodynamic environment will favor both intense updrafts and downdrafts, while deep-layer vertical shear will be sufficient for an organized/bowing MCS. Thus, there will be the potential for swaths of significant-severe outflow (75-90 mph), as well as isolated large hail and a few tornadoes (either with initially discrete supercells or with embedded circulations with bowing segments). ...Central MT this afternoon through early tonight... An embedded speed max will crest the ridge and move from ID to southwest MT this afternoon/evening. Residual boundary-layer dewpoints in the mid-upper 50s in the post-frontal environment, along with surface heating and the north edge of the steeper midlevel lapse rates will favor scattered thunderstorm development by early-mid afternoon (near and just northeast of the higher terrain southwest into central MT). MLCAPE of 1500-2000 J/kg, effective bulk shear in excess of 40 kt and seasonably cool midlevel temperatures suggest the potential for initial supercells with large hail (1-2.5 inches in diameter), and also the potential for upscale growth into a cluster with the attendant threat for wind damage. ..Thompson/Thornton.. 07/28/2025 Read more

WW 0550 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 550 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..KERR..07/28/25 ATTN...WFO...BIS... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 550 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NDC001-011-015-025-029-037-041-043-047-051-057-059-065-085-087- 089-281640- ND . NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS BOWMAN BURLEIGH DUNN EMMONS GRANT HETTINGER KIDDER LOGAN MCINTOSH MERCER MORTON OLIVER SIOUX SLOPE STARK THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

MD 1821 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PARTS OF WESTERN/CENTRAL ND
Mesoscale Discussion 1821 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0721 AM CDT Mon Jul 28 2025 Areas affected...parts of western/central ND Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 281221Z - 281415Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...A persistent supercell or two may yield a confined swath of large hail and strong gusts into late morning. Monitoring for possible Severe Thunderstorm Watch issuance. DISCUSSION...A couple elevated supercells are ongoing across southwest/west-central ND, along and just north of I-94. Despite a lack of reported severe thus far, strong westerly speed shear above 3 km (now sampled by the BIS VWP and 12Z observed sounding) has sustained persistent organizational structures as these cells spread across the MT/ND border. This elevated activity is likely to persist into midday along the buoyancy gradient across western ND. Large hail and strong gusts should be the primary hazards. Severe wind may increase if flanking convection can form along the outflow into a destabilizing airmass over SD. But ongoing low clouds/fog in the swath of richest low-level moisture casts uncertainty on whether that scenario may occur soon or later today. ..Grams/Hart.. 07/28/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...UNR... LAT...LON 47340332 47640223 47670131 47700051 47189994 46150002 45820094 45830219 46140321 46360389 46800394 47340332 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more

WW 0550 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0550 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0550 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0550 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more