Severe Storms

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Sun Jun 09 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms with large hail and severe wind gusts will be possible on Monday in parts of the central and northern High Plains. Marginally severe thunderstorms will be possible in parts of the southern High Plains and Southeast. ...High Plains... A shortwave trough, and an associated cold front, are forecast to move eastward across the central and northern High Plains on Monday. Ahead of the trough and cold front, a north-to-south corridor of maximized low-level moisture will be in place by afternoon from northern Nebraska into the western Dakotas. As a surface low deepens across the central High Plains, low-level convergence is forecast to increase ahead of the front. This, combined with large-scale ascent associated with the trough, will likely support scattered thunderstorm development during the mid to late afternoon from western Nebraska northward into the western Dakotas. Along and near the moist axis, forecast soundings near Rapid City, SD at 00Z/Tuesday suggest MLCAPE will peak in the 1500 to 2000 J/kg range, moderate deep-layer shear will exist and 700-500 mb lapse rates will be steep. This environment should be favorable for supercells with isolated large hail. Also, forecast soundings have nearly dry adiabatic lapse rates in the low-levels. This could contribute to a potential for severe wind gusts with the stronger storms. Further south into the southern High Plains, a north-to-south corridor of instability is forecast to be in place by afternoon. As surface temperatures warm along this corridor, scattered thunderstorms will likely develop from parts of eastern New Mexico into west Texas. Although instability on Monday across much of the southern High Plains is not forecast to be as strong as in areas further to north, moderate deep-layer shear and steep low-level lapse rates are forecast suggesting that a marginal severe threat could develop during the late afternoon and early evening. Hail and strong wind gusts will be the primary threats. ...Southeast... An upper-level trough is forecast to move across the southern and central Appalachians on Monday, as a cold front advances southward across the Southeast. The front is forecast to be positioned from southern Alabama into southern Georgia by afternoon. Along and south of the boundary, warming surface temperatures and increasing low-level convergence is expected to result in scattered thunderstorm development. Surface dewpoints in the low to mid 70s F and steep low-level lapse rates should support a marginal wind-damage threat. Some forecast soundings have inverted-V signatures near the front Monday afternoon, which would contribute to the potential for severe wind gusts. ..Broyles.. 06/09/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Sun Jun 09 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms with large hail and severe wind gusts will be possible on Monday in parts of the central and northern High Plains. Marginally severe thunderstorms will be possible in parts of the southern High Plains and Southeast. ...High Plains... A shortwave trough, and an associated cold front, are forecast to move eastward across the central and northern High Plains on Monday. Ahead of the trough and cold front, a north-to-south corridor of maximized low-level moisture will be in place by afternoon from northern Nebraska into the western Dakotas. As a surface low deepens across the central High Plains, low-level convergence is forecast to increase ahead of the front. This, combined with large-scale ascent associated with the trough, will likely support scattered thunderstorm development during the mid to late afternoon from western Nebraska northward into the western Dakotas. Along and near the moist axis, forecast soundings near Rapid City, SD at 00Z/Tuesday suggest MLCAPE will peak in the 1500 to 2000 J/kg range, moderate deep-layer shear will exist and 700-500 mb lapse rates will be steep. This environment should be favorable for supercells with isolated large hail. Also, forecast soundings have nearly dry adiabatic lapse rates in the low-levels. This could contribute to a potential for severe wind gusts with the stronger storms. Further south into the southern High Plains, a north-to-south corridor of instability is forecast to be in place by afternoon. As surface temperatures warm along this corridor, scattered thunderstorms will likely develop from parts of eastern New Mexico into west Texas. Although instability on Monday across much of the southern High Plains is not forecast to be as strong as in areas further to north, moderate deep-layer shear and steep low-level lapse rates are forecast suggesting that a marginal severe threat could develop during the late afternoon and early evening. Hail and strong wind gusts will be the primary threats. ...Southeast... An upper-level trough is forecast to move across the southern and central Appalachians on Monday, as a cold front advances southward across the Southeast. The front is forecast to be positioned from southern Alabama into southern Georgia by afternoon. Along and south of the boundary, warming surface temperatures and increasing low-level convergence is expected to result in scattered thunderstorm development. Surface dewpoints in the low to mid 70s F and steep low-level lapse rates should support a marginal wind-damage threat. Some forecast soundings have inverted-V signatures near the front Monday afternoon, which would contribute to the potential for severe wind gusts. ..Broyles.. 06/09/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Sun Jun 09 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms with large hail and severe wind gusts will be possible on Monday in parts of the central and northern High Plains. Marginally severe thunderstorms will be possible in parts of the southern High Plains and Southeast. ...High Plains... A shortwave trough, and an associated cold front, are forecast to move eastward across the central and northern High Plains on Monday. Ahead of the trough and cold front, a north-to-south corridor of maximized low-level moisture will be in place by afternoon from northern Nebraska into the western Dakotas. As a surface low deepens across the central High Plains, low-level convergence is forecast to increase ahead of the front. This, combined with large-scale ascent associated with the trough, will likely support scattered thunderstorm development during the mid to late afternoon from western Nebraska northward into the western Dakotas. Along and near the moist axis, forecast soundings near Rapid City, SD at 00Z/Tuesday suggest MLCAPE will peak in the 1500 to 2000 J/kg range, moderate deep-layer shear will exist and 700-500 mb lapse rates will be steep. This environment should be favorable for supercells with isolated large hail. Also, forecast soundings have nearly dry adiabatic lapse rates in the low-levels. This could contribute to a potential for severe wind gusts with the stronger storms. Further south into the southern High Plains, a north-to-south corridor of instability is forecast to be in place by afternoon. As surface temperatures warm along this corridor, scattered thunderstorms will likely develop from parts of eastern New Mexico into west Texas. Although instability on Monday across much of the southern High Plains is not forecast to be as strong as in areas further to north, moderate deep-layer shear and steep low-level lapse rates are forecast suggesting that a marginal severe threat could develop during the late afternoon and early evening. Hail and strong wind gusts will be the primary threats. ...Southeast... An upper-level trough is forecast to move across the southern and central Appalachians on Monday, as a cold front advances southward across the Southeast. The front is forecast to be positioned from southern Alabama into southern Georgia by afternoon. Along and south of the boundary, warming surface temperatures and increasing low-level convergence is expected to result in scattered thunderstorm development. Surface dewpoints in the low to mid 70s F and steep low-level lapse rates should support a marginal wind-damage threat. Some forecast soundings have inverted-V signatures near the front Monday afternoon, which would contribute to the potential for severe wind gusts. ..Broyles.. 06/09/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Sun Jun 09 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms with large hail and severe wind gusts will be possible on Monday in parts of the central and northern High Plains. Marginally severe thunderstorms will be possible in parts of the southern High Plains and Southeast. ...High Plains... A shortwave trough, and an associated cold front, are forecast to move eastward across the central and northern High Plains on Monday. Ahead of the trough and cold front, a north-to-south corridor of maximized low-level moisture will be in place by afternoon from northern Nebraska into the western Dakotas. As a surface low deepens across the central High Plains, low-level convergence is forecast to increase ahead of the front. This, combined with large-scale ascent associated with the trough, will likely support scattered thunderstorm development during the mid to late afternoon from western Nebraska northward into the western Dakotas. Along and near the moist axis, forecast soundings near Rapid City, SD at 00Z/Tuesday suggest MLCAPE will peak in the 1500 to 2000 J/kg range, moderate deep-layer shear will exist and 700-500 mb lapse rates will be steep. This environment should be favorable for supercells with isolated large hail. Also, forecast soundings have nearly dry adiabatic lapse rates in the low-levels. This could contribute to a potential for severe wind gusts with the stronger storms. Further south into the southern High Plains, a north-to-south corridor of instability is forecast to be in place by afternoon. As surface temperatures warm along this corridor, scattered thunderstorms will likely develop from parts of eastern New Mexico into west Texas. Although instability on Monday across much of the southern High Plains is not forecast to be as strong as in areas further to north, moderate deep-layer shear and steep low-level lapse rates are forecast suggesting that a marginal severe threat could develop during the late afternoon and early evening. Hail and strong wind gusts will be the primary threats. ...Southeast... An upper-level trough is forecast to move across the southern and central Appalachians on Monday, as a cold front advances southward across the Southeast. The front is forecast to be positioned from southern Alabama into southern Georgia by afternoon. Along and south of the boundary, warming surface temperatures and increasing low-level convergence is expected to result in scattered thunderstorm development. Surface dewpoints in the low to mid 70s F and steep low-level lapse rates should support a marginal wind-damage threat. Some forecast soundings have inverted-V signatures near the front Monday afternoon, which would contribute to the potential for severe wind gusts. ..Broyles.. 06/09/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Sun Jun 09 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms with large hail and severe wind gusts will be possible on Monday in parts of the central and northern High Plains. Marginally severe thunderstorms will be possible in parts of the southern High Plains and Southeast. ...High Plains... A shortwave trough, and an associated cold front, are forecast to move eastward across the central and northern High Plains on Monday. Ahead of the trough and cold front, a north-to-south corridor of maximized low-level moisture will be in place by afternoon from northern Nebraska into the western Dakotas. As a surface low deepens across the central High Plains, low-level convergence is forecast to increase ahead of the front. This, combined with large-scale ascent associated with the trough, will likely support scattered thunderstorm development during the mid to late afternoon from western Nebraska northward into the western Dakotas. Along and near the moist axis, forecast soundings near Rapid City, SD at 00Z/Tuesday suggest MLCAPE will peak in the 1500 to 2000 J/kg range, moderate deep-layer shear will exist and 700-500 mb lapse rates will be steep. This environment should be favorable for supercells with isolated large hail. Also, forecast soundings have nearly dry adiabatic lapse rates in the low-levels. This could contribute to a potential for severe wind gusts with the stronger storms. Further south into the southern High Plains, a north-to-south corridor of instability is forecast to be in place by afternoon. As surface temperatures warm along this corridor, scattered thunderstorms will likely develop from parts of eastern New Mexico into west Texas. Although instability on Monday across much of the southern High Plains is not forecast to be as strong as in areas further to north, moderate deep-layer shear and steep low-level lapse rates are forecast suggesting that a marginal severe threat could develop during the late afternoon and early evening. Hail and strong wind gusts will be the primary threats. ...Southeast... An upper-level trough is forecast to move across the southern and central Appalachians on Monday, as a cold front advances southward across the Southeast. The front is forecast to be positioned from southern Alabama into southern Georgia by afternoon. Along and south of the boundary, warming surface temperatures and increasing low-level convergence is expected to result in scattered thunderstorm development. Surface dewpoints in the low to mid 70s F and steep low-level lapse rates should support a marginal wind-damage threat. Some forecast soundings have inverted-V signatures near the front Monday afternoon, which would contribute to the potential for severe wind gusts. ..Broyles.. 06/09/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Sun Jun 09 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms with large hail and severe wind gusts will be possible on Monday in parts of the central and northern High Plains. Marginally severe thunderstorms will be possible in parts of the southern High Plains and Southeast. ...High Plains... A shortwave trough, and an associated cold front, are forecast to move eastward across the central and northern High Plains on Monday. Ahead of the trough and cold front, a north-to-south corridor of maximized low-level moisture will be in place by afternoon from northern Nebraska into the western Dakotas. As a surface low deepens across the central High Plains, low-level convergence is forecast to increase ahead of the front. This, combined with large-scale ascent associated with the trough, will likely support scattered thunderstorm development during the mid to late afternoon from western Nebraska northward into the western Dakotas. Along and near the moist axis, forecast soundings near Rapid City, SD at 00Z/Tuesday suggest MLCAPE will peak in the 1500 to 2000 J/kg range, moderate deep-layer shear will exist and 700-500 mb lapse rates will be steep. This environment should be favorable for supercells with isolated large hail. Also, forecast soundings have nearly dry adiabatic lapse rates in the low-levels. This could contribute to a potential for severe wind gusts with the stronger storms. Further south into the southern High Plains, a north-to-south corridor of instability is forecast to be in place by afternoon. As surface temperatures warm along this corridor, scattered thunderstorms will likely develop from parts of eastern New Mexico into west Texas. Although instability on Monday across much of the southern High Plains is not forecast to be as strong as in areas further to north, moderate deep-layer shear and steep low-level lapse rates are forecast suggesting that a marginal severe threat could develop during the late afternoon and early evening. Hail and strong wind gusts will be the primary threats. ...Southeast... An upper-level trough is forecast to move across the southern and central Appalachians on Monday, as a cold front advances southward across the Southeast. The front is forecast to be positioned from southern Alabama into southern Georgia by afternoon. Along and south of the boundary, warming surface temperatures and increasing low-level convergence is expected to result in scattered thunderstorm development. Surface dewpoints in the low to mid 70s F and steep low-level lapse rates should support a marginal wind-damage threat. Some forecast soundings have inverted-V signatures near the front Monday afternoon, which would contribute to the potential for severe wind gusts. ..Broyles.. 06/09/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Sun Jun 09 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms with large hail and severe wind gusts will be possible on Monday in parts of the central and northern High Plains. Marginally severe thunderstorms will be possible in parts of the southern High Plains and Southeast. ...High Plains... A shortwave trough, and an associated cold front, are forecast to move eastward across the central and northern High Plains on Monday. Ahead of the trough and cold front, a north-to-south corridor of maximized low-level moisture will be in place by afternoon from northern Nebraska into the western Dakotas. As a surface low deepens across the central High Plains, low-level convergence is forecast to increase ahead of the front. This, combined with large-scale ascent associated with the trough, will likely support scattered thunderstorm development during the mid to late afternoon from western Nebraska northward into the western Dakotas. Along and near the moist axis, forecast soundings near Rapid City, SD at 00Z/Tuesday suggest MLCAPE will peak in the 1500 to 2000 J/kg range, moderate deep-layer shear will exist and 700-500 mb lapse rates will be steep. This environment should be favorable for supercells with isolated large hail. Also, forecast soundings have nearly dry adiabatic lapse rates in the low-levels. This could contribute to a potential for severe wind gusts with the stronger storms. Further south into the southern High Plains, a north-to-south corridor of instability is forecast to be in place by afternoon. As surface temperatures warm along this corridor, scattered thunderstorms will likely develop from parts of eastern New Mexico into west Texas. Although instability on Monday across much of the southern High Plains is not forecast to be as strong as in areas further to north, moderate deep-layer shear and steep low-level lapse rates are forecast suggesting that a marginal severe threat could develop during the late afternoon and early evening. Hail and strong wind gusts will be the primary threats. ...Southeast... An upper-level trough is forecast to move across the southern and central Appalachians on Monday, as a cold front advances southward across the Southeast. The front is forecast to be positioned from southern Alabama into southern Georgia by afternoon. Along and south of the boundary, warming surface temperatures and increasing low-level convergence is expected to result in scattered thunderstorm development. Surface dewpoints in the low to mid 70s F and steep low-level lapse rates should support a marginal wind-damage threat. Some forecast soundings have inverted-V signatures near the front Monday afternoon, which would contribute to the potential for severe wind gusts. ..Broyles.. 06/09/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Sun Jun 09 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF CO/NM INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...OZARKS...SOUTHEAST...NORTHERN GREAT BASIN INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Strong to locally severe storms, capable of producing damaging wind gusts and some hail, are possible from the Ozarks vicinity eastward across the Tennessee Valley and Southeast. Isolated severe storms with severe gusts and hail will also be possible across portions of the central High Plains and southern Plains. Isolated strong to severe gusts may also occur over parts of the northern Intermountain region and northern High Plains. ...Ozarks into parts of the Tennessee Valley and Southeast... Storms will likely be ongoing at the start of the forecast period from southeast KS into the Ozarks vicinity, with sufficient buoyancy and deep-layer shear to support some threat for damaging wind and possibly some hail through the morning. Meanwhile, guidance generally suggests that a convectively enhanced vorticity maximum will move across southern MO through the day. This feature would likely be accompanied by locally stronger midlevel flow, but it may tend to be displaced north of the effective warm sector with time, as an outflow-reinforced cold front moves southward across Arkansas and parts of the Southeast. Storm redevelopment will be possible in the vicinity of the front during the afternoon and evening, along with some potential for persistence of slightly elevated convection north of the boundary. Moderate to strong instability and at least modestly favorable deep-layer shear could support a few organized storms, with a threat of at least isolated damaging winds and hail. At this time, the greatest relative coverage of storms is currently expected from AR into parts of western TN and northern MS, and greater severe probabilities may be needed in this area, depending on the evolution of mesoscale details. Some potential for strong thunderstorms will also extend eastward across AL/GA into parts of the Carolinas, with some threat of isolated damaging wind and perhaps some hail. ...Eastern NM into west/southwest TX... Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening from eastern NM into parts of west/southwest TX, within a moist, moderately unstable, and weakly capped environment. Mid/upper-level flow is expected to remain weak, which will generally tend to limit storm organization. However, low-level east-northeasterly flow north of the southward-moving cold front may modestly enhance deep-layer shear, and a few stronger multicell clusters and perhaps a transient supercell will be possible, with a threat of at least isolated hail and severe gusts. ...Northern NM into CO...eastern WY...and southeast MT... Scattered thunderstorm development is expected this afternoon into the evening from the Raton Mesa vicinity into parts of the CO Front Range. Deep-layer flow/shear will not be particularly strong, but moderate instability could support isolated hail and severe gusts with the strongest storms. A similar regime (with perhaps slightly better deep-layer shear) is expected from eastern WY into southeast MT, where a few strong storms capable of isolated hail and severe gusts will also be possible. ...Northern Great Basin into the northern Rockies... A mid/upper-level shortwave trough will move across the interior Northwest during the day, and into the northern Rockies by tonight. MLCAPE of around 500 J/kg and modestly enhanced deep-layer shear could support occasionally organized storms. Localized severe gusts and perhaps some hail will be possible. ..Dean.. 06/09/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Sun Jun 09 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF CO/NM INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...OZARKS...SOUTHEAST...NORTHERN GREAT BASIN INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Strong to locally severe storms, capable of producing damaging wind gusts and some hail, are possible from the Ozarks vicinity eastward across the Tennessee Valley and Southeast. Isolated severe storms with severe gusts and hail will also be possible across portions of the central High Plains and southern Plains. Isolated strong to severe gusts may also occur over parts of the northern Intermountain region and northern High Plains. ...Ozarks into parts of the Tennessee Valley and Southeast... Storms will likely be ongoing at the start of the forecast period from southeast KS into the Ozarks vicinity, with sufficient buoyancy and deep-layer shear to support some threat for damaging wind and possibly some hail through the morning. Meanwhile, guidance generally suggests that a convectively enhanced vorticity maximum will move across southern MO through the day. This feature would likely be accompanied by locally stronger midlevel flow, but it may tend to be displaced north of the effective warm sector with time, as an outflow-reinforced cold front moves southward across Arkansas and parts of the Southeast. Storm redevelopment will be possible in the vicinity of the front during the afternoon and evening, along with some potential for persistence of slightly elevated convection north of the boundary. Moderate to strong instability and at least modestly favorable deep-layer shear could support a few organized storms, with a threat of at least isolated damaging winds and hail. At this time, the greatest relative coverage of storms is currently expected from AR into parts of western TN and northern MS, and greater severe probabilities may be needed in this area, depending on the evolution of mesoscale details. Some potential for strong thunderstorms will also extend eastward across AL/GA into parts of the Carolinas, with some threat of isolated damaging wind and perhaps some hail. ...Eastern NM into west/southwest TX... Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening from eastern NM into parts of west/southwest TX, within a moist, moderately unstable, and weakly capped environment. Mid/upper-level flow is expected to remain weak, which will generally tend to limit storm organization. However, low-level east-northeasterly flow north of the southward-moving cold front may modestly enhance deep-layer shear, and a few stronger multicell clusters and perhaps a transient supercell will be possible, with a threat of at least isolated hail and severe gusts. ...Northern NM into CO...eastern WY...and southeast MT... Scattered thunderstorm development is expected this afternoon into the evening from the Raton Mesa vicinity into parts of the CO Front Range. Deep-layer flow/shear will not be particularly strong, but moderate instability could support isolated hail and severe gusts with the strongest storms. A similar regime (with perhaps slightly better deep-layer shear) is expected from eastern WY into southeast MT, where a few strong storms capable of isolated hail and severe gusts will also be possible. ...Northern Great Basin into the northern Rockies... A mid/upper-level shortwave trough will move across the interior Northwest during the day, and into the northern Rockies by tonight. MLCAPE of around 500 J/kg and modestly enhanced deep-layer shear could support occasionally organized storms. Localized severe gusts and perhaps some hail will be possible. ..Dean.. 06/09/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Sun Jun 09 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF CO/NM INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...OZARKS...SOUTHEAST...NORTHERN GREAT BASIN INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Strong to locally severe storms, capable of producing damaging wind gusts and some hail, are possible from the Ozarks vicinity eastward across the Tennessee Valley and Southeast. Isolated severe storms with severe gusts and hail will also be possible across portions of the central High Plains and southern Plains. Isolated strong to severe gusts may also occur over parts of the northern Intermountain region and northern High Plains. ...Ozarks into parts of the Tennessee Valley and Southeast... Storms will likely be ongoing at the start of the forecast period from southeast KS into the Ozarks vicinity, with sufficient buoyancy and deep-layer shear to support some threat for damaging wind and possibly some hail through the morning. Meanwhile, guidance generally suggests that a convectively enhanced vorticity maximum will move across southern MO through the day. This feature would likely be accompanied by locally stronger midlevel flow, but it may tend to be displaced north of the effective warm sector with time, as an outflow-reinforced cold front moves southward across Arkansas and parts of the Southeast. Storm redevelopment will be possible in the vicinity of the front during the afternoon and evening, along with some potential for persistence of slightly elevated convection north of the boundary. Moderate to strong instability and at least modestly favorable deep-layer shear could support a few organized storms, with a threat of at least isolated damaging winds and hail. At this time, the greatest relative coverage of storms is currently expected from AR into parts of western TN and northern MS, and greater severe probabilities may be needed in this area, depending on the evolution of mesoscale details. Some potential for strong thunderstorms will also extend eastward across AL/GA into parts of the Carolinas, with some threat of isolated damaging wind and perhaps some hail. ...Eastern NM into west/southwest TX... Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening from eastern NM into parts of west/southwest TX, within a moist, moderately unstable, and weakly capped environment. Mid/upper-level flow is expected to remain weak, which will generally tend to limit storm organization. However, low-level east-northeasterly flow north of the southward-moving cold front may modestly enhance deep-layer shear, and a few stronger multicell clusters and perhaps a transient supercell will be possible, with a threat of at least isolated hail and severe gusts. ...Northern NM into CO...eastern WY...and southeast MT... Scattered thunderstorm development is expected this afternoon into the evening from the Raton Mesa vicinity into parts of the CO Front Range. Deep-layer flow/shear will not be particularly strong, but moderate instability could support isolated hail and severe gusts with the strongest storms. A similar regime (with perhaps slightly better deep-layer shear) is expected from eastern WY into southeast MT, where a few strong storms capable of isolated hail and severe gusts will also be possible. ...Northern Great Basin into the northern Rockies... A mid/upper-level shortwave trough will move across the interior Northwest during the day, and into the northern Rockies by tonight. MLCAPE of around 500 J/kg and modestly enhanced deep-layer shear could support occasionally organized storms. Localized severe gusts and perhaps some hail will be possible. ..Dean.. 06/09/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Sun Jun 09 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF CO/NM INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...OZARKS...SOUTHEAST...NORTHERN GREAT BASIN INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Strong to locally severe storms, capable of producing damaging wind gusts and some hail, are possible from the Ozarks vicinity eastward across the Tennessee Valley and Southeast. Isolated severe storms with severe gusts and hail will also be possible across portions of the central High Plains and southern Plains. Isolated strong to severe gusts may also occur over parts of the northern Intermountain region and northern High Plains. ...Ozarks into parts of the Tennessee Valley and Southeast... Storms will likely be ongoing at the start of the forecast period from southeast KS into the Ozarks vicinity, with sufficient buoyancy and deep-layer shear to support some threat for damaging wind and possibly some hail through the morning. Meanwhile, guidance generally suggests that a convectively enhanced vorticity maximum will move across southern MO through the day. This feature would likely be accompanied by locally stronger midlevel flow, but it may tend to be displaced north of the effective warm sector with time, as an outflow-reinforced cold front moves southward across Arkansas and parts of the Southeast. Storm redevelopment will be possible in the vicinity of the front during the afternoon and evening, along with some potential for persistence of slightly elevated convection north of the boundary. Moderate to strong instability and at least modestly favorable deep-layer shear could support a few organized storms, with a threat of at least isolated damaging winds and hail. At this time, the greatest relative coverage of storms is currently expected from AR into parts of western TN and northern MS, and greater severe probabilities may be needed in this area, depending on the evolution of mesoscale details. Some potential for strong thunderstorms will also extend eastward across AL/GA into parts of the Carolinas, with some threat of isolated damaging wind and perhaps some hail. ...Eastern NM into west/southwest TX... Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening from eastern NM into parts of west/southwest TX, within a moist, moderately unstable, and weakly capped environment. Mid/upper-level flow is expected to remain weak, which will generally tend to limit storm organization. However, low-level east-northeasterly flow north of the southward-moving cold front may modestly enhance deep-layer shear, and a few stronger multicell clusters and perhaps a transient supercell will be possible, with a threat of at least isolated hail and severe gusts. ...Northern NM into CO...eastern WY...and southeast MT... Scattered thunderstorm development is expected this afternoon into the evening from the Raton Mesa vicinity into parts of the CO Front Range. Deep-layer flow/shear will not be particularly strong, but moderate instability could support isolated hail and severe gusts with the strongest storms. A similar regime (with perhaps slightly better deep-layer shear) is expected from eastern WY into southeast MT, where a few strong storms capable of isolated hail and severe gusts will also be possible. ...Northern Great Basin into the northern Rockies... A mid/upper-level shortwave trough will move across the interior Northwest during the day, and into the northern Rockies by tonight. MLCAPE of around 500 J/kg and modestly enhanced deep-layer shear could support occasionally organized storms. Localized severe gusts and perhaps some hail will be possible. ..Dean.. 06/09/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Sun Jun 09 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF CO/NM INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...OZARKS...SOUTHEAST...NORTHERN GREAT BASIN INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Strong to locally severe storms, capable of producing damaging wind gusts and some hail, are possible from the Ozarks vicinity eastward across the Tennessee Valley and Southeast. Isolated severe storms with severe gusts and hail will also be possible across portions of the central High Plains and southern Plains. Isolated strong to severe gusts may also occur over parts of the northern Intermountain region and northern High Plains. ...Ozarks into parts of the Tennessee Valley and Southeast... Storms will likely be ongoing at the start of the forecast period from southeast KS into the Ozarks vicinity, with sufficient buoyancy and deep-layer shear to support some threat for damaging wind and possibly some hail through the morning. Meanwhile, guidance generally suggests that a convectively enhanced vorticity maximum will move across southern MO through the day. This feature would likely be accompanied by locally stronger midlevel flow, but it may tend to be displaced north of the effective warm sector with time, as an outflow-reinforced cold front moves southward across Arkansas and parts of the Southeast. Storm redevelopment will be possible in the vicinity of the front during the afternoon and evening, along with some potential for persistence of slightly elevated convection north of the boundary. Moderate to strong instability and at least modestly favorable deep-layer shear could support a few organized storms, with a threat of at least isolated damaging winds and hail. At this time, the greatest relative coverage of storms is currently expected from AR into parts of western TN and northern MS, and greater severe probabilities may be needed in this area, depending on the evolution of mesoscale details. Some potential for strong thunderstorms will also extend eastward across AL/GA into parts of the Carolinas, with some threat of isolated damaging wind and perhaps some hail. ...Eastern NM into west/southwest TX... Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening from eastern NM into parts of west/southwest TX, within a moist, moderately unstable, and weakly capped environment. Mid/upper-level flow is expected to remain weak, which will generally tend to limit storm organization. However, low-level east-northeasterly flow north of the southward-moving cold front may modestly enhance deep-layer shear, and a few stronger multicell clusters and perhaps a transient supercell will be possible, with a threat of at least isolated hail and severe gusts. ...Northern NM into CO...eastern WY...and southeast MT... Scattered thunderstorm development is expected this afternoon into the evening from the Raton Mesa vicinity into parts of the CO Front Range. Deep-layer flow/shear will not be particularly strong, but moderate instability could support isolated hail and severe gusts with the strongest storms. A similar regime (with perhaps slightly better deep-layer shear) is expected from eastern WY into southeast MT, where a few strong storms capable of isolated hail and severe gusts will also be possible. ...Northern Great Basin into the northern Rockies... A mid/upper-level shortwave trough will move across the interior Northwest during the day, and into the northern Rockies by tonight. MLCAPE of around 500 J/kg and modestly enhanced deep-layer shear could support occasionally organized storms. Localized severe gusts and perhaps some hail will be possible. ..Dean.. 06/09/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Sun Jun 09 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF CO/NM INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...OZARKS...SOUTHEAST...NORTHERN GREAT BASIN INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Strong to locally severe storms, capable of producing damaging wind gusts and some hail, are possible from the Ozarks vicinity eastward across the Tennessee Valley and Southeast. Isolated severe storms with severe gusts and hail will also be possible across portions of the central High Plains and southern Plains. Isolated strong to severe gusts may also occur over parts of the northern Intermountain region and northern High Plains. ...Ozarks into parts of the Tennessee Valley and Southeast... Storms will likely be ongoing at the start of the forecast period from southeast KS into the Ozarks vicinity, with sufficient buoyancy and deep-layer shear to support some threat for damaging wind and possibly some hail through the morning. Meanwhile, guidance generally suggests that a convectively enhanced vorticity maximum will move across southern MO through the day. This feature would likely be accompanied by locally stronger midlevel flow, but it may tend to be displaced north of the effective warm sector with time, as an outflow-reinforced cold front moves southward across Arkansas and parts of the Southeast. Storm redevelopment will be possible in the vicinity of the front during the afternoon and evening, along with some potential for persistence of slightly elevated convection north of the boundary. Moderate to strong instability and at least modestly favorable deep-layer shear could support a few organized storms, with a threat of at least isolated damaging winds and hail. At this time, the greatest relative coverage of storms is currently expected from AR into parts of western TN and northern MS, and greater severe probabilities may be needed in this area, depending on the evolution of mesoscale details. Some potential for strong thunderstorms will also extend eastward across AL/GA into parts of the Carolinas, with some threat of isolated damaging wind and perhaps some hail. ...Eastern NM into west/southwest TX... Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening from eastern NM into parts of west/southwest TX, within a moist, moderately unstable, and weakly capped environment. Mid/upper-level flow is expected to remain weak, which will generally tend to limit storm organization. However, low-level east-northeasterly flow north of the southward-moving cold front may modestly enhance deep-layer shear, and a few stronger multicell clusters and perhaps a transient supercell will be possible, with a threat of at least isolated hail and severe gusts. ...Northern NM into CO...eastern WY...and southeast MT... Scattered thunderstorm development is expected this afternoon into the evening from the Raton Mesa vicinity into parts of the CO Front Range. Deep-layer flow/shear will not be particularly strong, but moderate instability could support isolated hail and severe gusts with the strongest storms. A similar regime (with perhaps slightly better deep-layer shear) is expected from eastern WY into southeast MT, where a few strong storms capable of isolated hail and severe gusts will also be possible. ...Northern Great Basin into the northern Rockies... A mid/upper-level shortwave trough will move across the interior Northwest during the day, and into the northern Rockies by tonight. MLCAPE of around 500 J/kg and modestly enhanced deep-layer shear could support occasionally organized storms. Localized severe gusts and perhaps some hail will be possible. ..Dean.. 06/09/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Sun Jun 09 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF CO/NM INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...OZARKS...SOUTHEAST...NORTHERN GREAT BASIN INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Strong to locally severe storms, capable of producing damaging wind gusts and some hail, are possible from the Ozarks vicinity eastward across the Tennessee Valley and Southeast. Isolated severe storms with severe gusts and hail will also be possible across portions of the central High Plains and southern Plains. Isolated strong to severe gusts may also occur over parts of the northern Intermountain region and northern High Plains. ...Ozarks into parts of the Tennessee Valley and Southeast... Storms will likely be ongoing at the start of the forecast period from southeast KS into the Ozarks vicinity, with sufficient buoyancy and deep-layer shear to support some threat for damaging wind and possibly some hail through the morning. Meanwhile, guidance generally suggests that a convectively enhanced vorticity maximum will move across southern MO through the day. This feature would likely be accompanied by locally stronger midlevel flow, but it may tend to be displaced north of the effective warm sector with time, as an outflow-reinforced cold front moves southward across Arkansas and parts of the Southeast. Storm redevelopment will be possible in the vicinity of the front during the afternoon and evening, along with some potential for persistence of slightly elevated convection north of the boundary. Moderate to strong instability and at least modestly favorable deep-layer shear could support a few organized storms, with a threat of at least isolated damaging winds and hail. At this time, the greatest relative coverage of storms is currently expected from AR into parts of western TN and northern MS, and greater severe probabilities may be needed in this area, depending on the evolution of mesoscale details. Some potential for strong thunderstorms will also extend eastward across AL/GA into parts of the Carolinas, with some threat of isolated damaging wind and perhaps some hail. ...Eastern NM into west/southwest TX... Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening from eastern NM into parts of west/southwest TX, within a moist, moderately unstable, and weakly capped environment. Mid/upper-level flow is expected to remain weak, which will generally tend to limit storm organization. However, low-level east-northeasterly flow north of the southward-moving cold front may modestly enhance deep-layer shear, and a few stronger multicell clusters and perhaps a transient supercell will be possible, with a threat of at least isolated hail and severe gusts. ...Northern NM into CO...eastern WY...and southeast MT... Scattered thunderstorm development is expected this afternoon into the evening from the Raton Mesa vicinity into parts of the CO Front Range. Deep-layer flow/shear will not be particularly strong, but moderate instability could support isolated hail and severe gusts with the strongest storms. A similar regime (with perhaps slightly better deep-layer shear) is expected from eastern WY into southeast MT, where a few strong storms capable of isolated hail and severe gusts will also be possible. ...Northern Great Basin into the northern Rockies... A mid/upper-level shortwave trough will move across the interior Northwest during the day, and into the northern Rockies by tonight. MLCAPE of around 500 J/kg and modestly enhanced deep-layer shear could support occasionally organized storms. Localized severe gusts and perhaps some hail will be possible. ..Dean.. 06/09/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Sun Jun 09 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF CO/NM INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...OZARKS...SOUTHEAST...NORTHERN GREAT BASIN INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Strong to locally severe storms, capable of producing damaging wind gusts and some hail, are possible from the Ozarks vicinity eastward across the Tennessee Valley and Southeast. Isolated severe storms with severe gusts and hail will also be possible across portions of the central High Plains and southern Plains. Isolated strong to severe gusts may also occur over parts of the northern Intermountain region and northern High Plains. ...Ozarks into parts of the Tennessee Valley and Southeast... Storms will likely be ongoing at the start of the forecast period from southeast KS into the Ozarks vicinity, with sufficient buoyancy and deep-layer shear to support some threat for damaging wind and possibly some hail through the morning. Meanwhile, guidance generally suggests that a convectively enhanced vorticity maximum will move across southern MO through the day. This feature would likely be accompanied by locally stronger midlevel flow, but it may tend to be displaced north of the effective warm sector with time, as an outflow-reinforced cold front moves southward across Arkansas and parts of the Southeast. Storm redevelopment will be possible in the vicinity of the front during the afternoon and evening, along with some potential for persistence of slightly elevated convection north of the boundary. Moderate to strong instability and at least modestly favorable deep-layer shear could support a few organized storms, with a threat of at least isolated damaging winds and hail. At this time, the greatest relative coverage of storms is currently expected from AR into parts of western TN and northern MS, and greater severe probabilities may be needed in this area, depending on the evolution of mesoscale details. Some potential for strong thunderstorms will also extend eastward across AL/GA into parts of the Carolinas, with some threat of isolated damaging wind and perhaps some hail. ...Eastern NM into west/southwest TX... Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening from eastern NM into parts of west/southwest TX, within a moist, moderately unstable, and weakly capped environment. Mid/upper-level flow is expected to remain weak, which will generally tend to limit storm organization. However, low-level east-northeasterly flow north of the southward-moving cold front may modestly enhance deep-layer shear, and a few stronger multicell clusters and perhaps a transient supercell will be possible, with a threat of at least isolated hail and severe gusts. ...Northern NM into CO...eastern WY...and southeast MT... Scattered thunderstorm development is expected this afternoon into the evening from the Raton Mesa vicinity into parts of the CO Front Range. Deep-layer flow/shear will not be particularly strong, but moderate instability could support isolated hail and severe gusts with the strongest storms. A similar regime (with perhaps slightly better deep-layer shear) is expected from eastern WY into southeast MT, where a few strong storms capable of isolated hail and severe gusts will also be possible. ...Northern Great Basin into the northern Rockies... A mid/upper-level shortwave trough will move across the interior Northwest during the day, and into the northern Rockies by tonight. MLCAPE of around 500 J/kg and modestly enhanced deep-layer shear could support occasionally organized storms. Localized severe gusts and perhaps some hail will be possible. ..Dean.. 06/09/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Sun Jun 09 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF CO/NM INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...OZARKS...SOUTHEAST...NORTHERN GREAT BASIN INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Strong to locally severe storms, capable of producing damaging wind gusts and some hail, are possible from the Ozarks vicinity eastward across the Tennessee Valley and Southeast. Isolated severe storms with severe gusts and hail will also be possible across portions of the central High Plains and southern Plains. Isolated strong to severe gusts may also occur over parts of the northern Intermountain region and northern High Plains. ...Ozarks into parts of the Tennessee Valley and Southeast... Storms will likely be ongoing at the start of the forecast period from southeast KS into the Ozarks vicinity, with sufficient buoyancy and deep-layer shear to support some threat for damaging wind and possibly some hail through the morning. Meanwhile, guidance generally suggests that a convectively enhanced vorticity maximum will move across southern MO through the day. This feature would likely be accompanied by locally stronger midlevel flow, but it may tend to be displaced north of the effective warm sector with time, as an outflow-reinforced cold front moves southward across Arkansas and parts of the Southeast. Storm redevelopment will be possible in the vicinity of the front during the afternoon and evening, along with some potential for persistence of slightly elevated convection north of the boundary. Moderate to strong instability and at least modestly favorable deep-layer shear could support a few organized storms, with a threat of at least isolated damaging winds and hail. At this time, the greatest relative coverage of storms is currently expected from AR into parts of western TN and northern MS, and greater severe probabilities may be needed in this area, depending on the evolution of mesoscale details. Some potential for strong thunderstorms will also extend eastward across AL/GA into parts of the Carolinas, with some threat of isolated damaging wind and perhaps some hail. ...Eastern NM into west/southwest TX... Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening from eastern NM into parts of west/southwest TX, within a moist, moderately unstable, and weakly capped environment. Mid/upper-level flow is expected to remain weak, which will generally tend to limit storm organization. However, low-level east-northeasterly flow north of the southward-moving cold front may modestly enhance deep-layer shear, and a few stronger multicell clusters and perhaps a transient supercell will be possible, with a threat of at least isolated hail and severe gusts. ...Northern NM into CO...eastern WY...and southeast MT... Scattered thunderstorm development is expected this afternoon into the evening from the Raton Mesa vicinity into parts of the CO Front Range. Deep-layer flow/shear will not be particularly strong, but moderate instability could support isolated hail and severe gusts with the strongest storms. A similar regime (with perhaps slightly better deep-layer shear) is expected from eastern WY into southeast MT, where a few strong storms capable of isolated hail and severe gusts will also be possible. ...Northern Great Basin into the northern Rockies... A mid/upper-level shortwave trough will move across the interior Northwest during the day, and into the northern Rockies by tonight. MLCAPE of around 500 J/kg and modestly enhanced deep-layer shear could support occasionally organized storms. Localized severe gusts and perhaps some hail will be possible. ..Dean.. 06/09/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Sun Jun 09 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF CO/NM INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...OZARKS...SOUTHEAST...NORTHERN GREAT BASIN INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Strong to locally severe storms, capable of producing damaging wind gusts and some hail, are possible from the Ozarks vicinity eastward across the Tennessee Valley and Southeast. Isolated severe storms with severe gusts and hail will also be possible across portions of the central High Plains and southern Plains. Isolated strong to severe gusts may also occur over parts of the northern Intermountain region and northern High Plains. ...Ozarks into parts of the Tennessee Valley and Southeast... Storms will likely be ongoing at the start of the forecast period from southeast KS into the Ozarks vicinity, with sufficient buoyancy and deep-layer shear to support some threat for damaging wind and possibly some hail through the morning. Meanwhile, guidance generally suggests that a convectively enhanced vorticity maximum will move across southern MO through the day. This feature would likely be accompanied by locally stronger midlevel flow, but it may tend to be displaced north of the effective warm sector with time, as an outflow-reinforced cold front moves southward across Arkansas and parts of the Southeast. Storm redevelopment will be possible in the vicinity of the front during the afternoon and evening, along with some potential for persistence of slightly elevated convection north of the boundary. Moderate to strong instability and at least modestly favorable deep-layer shear could support a few organized storms, with a threat of at least isolated damaging winds and hail. At this time, the greatest relative coverage of storms is currently expected from AR into parts of western TN and northern MS, and greater severe probabilities may be needed in this area, depending on the evolution of mesoscale details. Some potential for strong thunderstorms will also extend eastward across AL/GA into parts of the Carolinas, with some threat of isolated damaging wind and perhaps some hail. ...Eastern NM into west/southwest TX... Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening from eastern NM into parts of west/southwest TX, within a moist, moderately unstable, and weakly capped environment. Mid/upper-level flow is expected to remain weak, which will generally tend to limit storm organization. However, low-level east-northeasterly flow north of the southward-moving cold front may modestly enhance deep-layer shear, and a few stronger multicell clusters and perhaps a transient supercell will be possible, with a threat of at least isolated hail and severe gusts. ...Northern NM into CO...eastern WY...and southeast MT... Scattered thunderstorm development is expected this afternoon into the evening from the Raton Mesa vicinity into parts of the CO Front Range. Deep-layer flow/shear will not be particularly strong, but moderate instability could support isolated hail and severe gusts with the strongest storms. A similar regime (with perhaps slightly better deep-layer shear) is expected from eastern WY into southeast MT, where a few strong storms capable of isolated hail and severe gusts will also be possible. ...Northern Great Basin into the northern Rockies... A mid/upper-level shortwave trough will move across the interior Northwest during the day, and into the northern Rockies by tonight. MLCAPE of around 500 J/kg and modestly enhanced deep-layer shear could support occasionally organized storms. Localized severe gusts and perhaps some hail will be possible. ..Dean.. 06/09/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Sun Jun 09 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF CO/NM INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...OZARKS...SOUTHEAST...NORTHERN GREAT BASIN INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Strong to locally severe storms, capable of producing damaging wind gusts and some hail, are possible from the Ozarks vicinity eastward across the Tennessee Valley and Southeast. Isolated severe storms with severe gusts and hail will also be possible across portions of the central High Plains and southern Plains. Isolated strong to severe gusts may also occur over parts of the northern Intermountain region and northern High Plains. ...Ozarks into parts of the Tennessee Valley and Southeast... Storms will likely be ongoing at the start of the forecast period from southeast KS into the Ozarks vicinity, with sufficient buoyancy and deep-layer shear to support some threat for damaging wind and possibly some hail through the morning. Meanwhile, guidance generally suggests that a convectively enhanced vorticity maximum will move across southern MO through the day. This feature would likely be accompanied by locally stronger midlevel flow, but it may tend to be displaced north of the effective warm sector with time, as an outflow-reinforced cold front moves southward across Arkansas and parts of the Southeast. Storm redevelopment will be possible in the vicinity of the front during the afternoon and evening, along with some potential for persistence of slightly elevated convection north of the boundary. Moderate to strong instability and at least modestly favorable deep-layer shear could support a few organized storms, with a threat of at least isolated damaging winds and hail. At this time, the greatest relative coverage of storms is currently expected from AR into parts of western TN and northern MS, and greater severe probabilities may be needed in this area, depending on the evolution of mesoscale details. Some potential for strong thunderstorms will also extend eastward across AL/GA into parts of the Carolinas, with some threat of isolated damaging wind and perhaps some hail. ...Eastern NM into west/southwest TX... Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening from eastern NM into parts of west/southwest TX, within a moist, moderately unstable, and weakly capped environment. Mid/upper-level flow is expected to remain weak, which will generally tend to limit storm organization. However, low-level east-northeasterly flow north of the southward-moving cold front may modestly enhance deep-layer shear, and a few stronger multicell clusters and perhaps a transient supercell will be possible, with a threat of at least isolated hail and severe gusts. ...Northern NM into CO...eastern WY...and southeast MT... Scattered thunderstorm development is expected this afternoon into the evening from the Raton Mesa vicinity into parts of the CO Front Range. Deep-layer flow/shear will not be particularly strong, but moderate instability could support isolated hail and severe gusts with the strongest storms. A similar regime (with perhaps slightly better deep-layer shear) is expected from eastern WY into southeast MT, where a few strong storms capable of isolated hail and severe gusts will also be possible. ...Northern Great Basin into the northern Rockies... A mid/upper-level shortwave trough will move across the interior Northwest during the day, and into the northern Rockies by tonight. MLCAPE of around 500 J/kg and modestly enhanced deep-layer shear could support occasionally organized storms. Localized severe gusts and perhaps some hail will be possible. ..Dean.. 06/09/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Sun Jun 09 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF CO/NM INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...OZARKS...SOUTHEAST...NORTHERN GREAT BASIN INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Strong to locally severe storms, capable of producing damaging wind gusts and some hail, are possible from the Ozarks vicinity eastward across the Tennessee Valley and Southeast. Isolated severe storms with severe gusts and hail will also be possible across portions of the central High Plains and southern Plains. Isolated strong to severe gusts may also occur over parts of the northern Intermountain region and northern High Plains. ...Ozarks into parts of the Tennessee Valley and Southeast... Storms will likely be ongoing at the start of the forecast period from southeast KS into the Ozarks vicinity, with sufficient buoyancy and deep-layer shear to support some threat for damaging wind and possibly some hail through the morning. Meanwhile, guidance generally suggests that a convectively enhanced vorticity maximum will move across southern MO through the day. This feature would likely be accompanied by locally stronger midlevel flow, but it may tend to be displaced north of the effective warm sector with time, as an outflow-reinforced cold front moves southward across Arkansas and parts of the Southeast. Storm redevelopment will be possible in the vicinity of the front during the afternoon and evening, along with some potential for persistence of slightly elevated convection north of the boundary. Moderate to strong instability and at least modestly favorable deep-layer shear could support a few organized storms, with a threat of at least isolated damaging winds and hail. At this time, the greatest relative coverage of storms is currently expected from AR into parts of western TN and northern MS, and greater severe probabilities may be needed in this area, depending on the evolution of mesoscale details. Some potential for strong thunderstorms will also extend eastward across AL/GA into parts of the Carolinas, with some threat of isolated damaging wind and perhaps some hail. ...Eastern NM into west/southwest TX... Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening from eastern NM into parts of west/southwest TX, within a moist, moderately unstable, and weakly capped environment. Mid/upper-level flow is expected to remain weak, which will generally tend to limit storm organization. However, low-level east-northeasterly flow north of the southward-moving cold front may modestly enhance deep-layer shear, and a few stronger multicell clusters and perhaps a transient supercell will be possible, with a threat of at least isolated hail and severe gusts. ...Northern NM into CO...eastern WY...and southeast MT... Scattered thunderstorm development is expected this afternoon into the evening from the Raton Mesa vicinity into parts of the CO Front Range. Deep-layer flow/shear will not be particularly strong, but moderate instability could support isolated hail and severe gusts with the strongest storms. A similar regime (with perhaps slightly better deep-layer shear) is expected from eastern WY into southeast MT, where a few strong storms capable of isolated hail and severe gusts will also be possible. ...Northern Great Basin into the northern Rockies... A mid/upper-level shortwave trough will move across the interior Northwest during the day, and into the northern Rockies by tonight. MLCAPE of around 500 J/kg and modestly enhanced deep-layer shear could support occasionally organized storms. Localized severe gusts and perhaps some hail will be possible. ..Dean.. 06/09/2024 Read more

MD 1212 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 400... FOR KANSAS
Mesoscale Discussion 1212 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1134 PM CDT Sat Jun 08 2024 Areas affected...Kansas Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 400... Valid 090434Z - 090600Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 400 continues. SUMMARY...Severe threat will spread across central into eastern portions of ww0400 over the next several hours. Large hail and damaging winds remain possible. DISCUSSION...Convection that evolved over the High Plains of eastern CO has grown upscale as it spreads downstream. Latest radar data suggests a maturing MCS is now located over western KS with an apparent MCV over northwest Hodgeman County. Over the last hour or so, an east-west band of convection has developed well ahead of the main complex and is beginning to intensify as far downstream as Chase County. Low-level warm advection will likely aid new development across southeast KS over the next few hours. Of more significance, a substantial precip shield has evolved over northwest KS and this may contribute to a surging squall line that is progressing across the DDC CWA. Severe winds have been noted with this convection across much of eastern CO into western KS. With time this band of convection may become oriented more north-south which would continue to favor very strong winds along the leading edge of this activity. ..Darrow.. 06/09/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...OUN...DDC...AMA... LAT...LON 38600003 38549552 37129620 36860035 38600003 Read more