Severe Storms

WW 0413 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0413 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0413 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0413 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0413 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0413 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0413 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0413 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

No watches are valid as of Fri Jun 14 17:58:01 UTC 2024.

MD 1258 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR WESTERN/CENTRAL PA
Mesoscale Discussion 1258 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1117 AM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024 Areas affected...Western/Central PA Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 141617Z - 141815Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Some additional strengthening of the ongoing thunderstorms is possible over the next hour or two, with some new development probable as well. Isolated hail and/or damaging gusts are possible, and trends will be monitored for a possible watch. DISCUSSION...Ongoing thunderstorm cluster across western PA has shown a gradual strengthening trend over the past hour or so as it continues eastward at around 30 kt. Widespread cloud cover exists downstream across central PA, which has tempered heating thus far. Even so, some heating and moistening is likely ahead of this cluster over the next few hours, contributing to the potential for modest destabilization and some additional strengthening of the storms within this cluster. New development is also possible across the southern edge of this cluster, from southeast into south-central PA. Overall storm strength should be mitigated by the minimal buoyancy, but moderate westerly flow aloft could still support some organized storm structures capable of hail and/or damaging gusts. Uncertainty regarding severe coverage limits higher watch probabilities, but convective trends will be monitored closely. ..Mosier/Gleason.. 06/14/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...CTP...PBZ... LAT...LON 40768031 41737859 41897776 41787700 41207695 40017783 39747898 39938034 40768031 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MID-MO VALLEY AND NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms with damaging winds and large hail are possible from the late afternoon into the evening Saturday, across the Mid-Missouri Valley and in eastern Montana to central North Dakota. A couple tornadic storms may occur in eastern Nebraska to western Iowa, with isolated severe significant severe hail and wind possible in the northern Great Plains. ...Mid-MO Valley... A southern-stream shortwave trough currently centered near the Four Corners will progress northeast into parts of the central Great Plains to Upper Midwest by Saturday afternoon. This trough should contain multiple embedded impulses that are convectively enhanced from D1 convection over the High Plains. The greatest severe threat will likely emanate out of one such MCV as it progresses towards the Mid-MO Valley towards peak heating. While mid-level lapse rates will be weaker in vicinity of the MCV, ample low-level flow should be relatively strong ahead of the broader trough. A confined corridor of moderate to large buoyancy (MLCAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg), aided by greater low-level moisture along a residual frontal zone, should develop from the Ozark Plateau northwest into the Mid-MO Valley. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected ahead of the MCV. At least a few of these should develop into supercells given the enhanced low-level SRH. Potential for a couple tornadic storms along with a risk for severe wind/hail should develop during the late afternoon through about dusk. This corridor will probably remain focused on the mesoscale as highlighted by a relatively confined level 2-SLGT. Strong low-level shear will exist with northeast extent in the Upper Midwest, but forecast soundings indicate convection will largely remain elevated, suggesting a more marginal severe hail/wind threat Saturday night. ...Northern Great Plains... A shortwave trough will move northeast across the Pacific Northwest into the southern SK vicinity by early Sunday. A pair of lee cyclones should develop near the Canadian Rockies and over the northern High Plains before tracking eastward into MB to the central Dakotas as a pronounced cold front accelerates eastward Saturday night. Multiple corridors of thunderstorms will likely develop during the late afternoon along the cold front and a lee trough, over southern to eastern MT and the western Dakotas. The degree of buoyancy with western extent into MT is somewhat uncertain where large-scale ascent will initially be greatest. But a plume of MLCAPE from 1500-2500 J/kg amid very steep mid-level lapse rates should develop from the central/western Dakotas into a part of eastern MT. Strengthening mid to upper-level flow with the approaching shortwave trough will yield potential for high-based supercells, conditionally favoring very large hail. 12Z HREF guidance signals convection largely forming west of the larger buoyancy plume and impinging on it during the evening. This suggests that a cluster to linear mode may occur relatively quickly with cold pools spreading east-northeast in the western to central Dakotas. Small-scale bowing structures may develop, locally enhancing severe wind intensity during the evening. Have expanded both level 1-2/MRGL-SLGT risks south and east to account for greater confidence in a mixed severe hail/wind threat occurring. ..Grams.. 06/14/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MID-MO VALLEY AND NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms with damaging winds and large hail are possible from the late afternoon into the evening Saturday, across the Mid-Missouri Valley and in eastern Montana to central North Dakota. A couple tornadic storms may occur in eastern Nebraska to western Iowa, with isolated severe significant severe hail and wind possible in the northern Great Plains. ...Mid-MO Valley... A southern-stream shortwave trough currently centered near the Four Corners will progress northeast into parts of the central Great Plains to Upper Midwest by Saturday afternoon. This trough should contain multiple embedded impulses that are convectively enhanced from D1 convection over the High Plains. The greatest severe threat will likely emanate out of one such MCV as it progresses towards the Mid-MO Valley towards peak heating. While mid-level lapse rates will be weaker in vicinity of the MCV, ample low-level flow should be relatively strong ahead of the broader trough. A confined corridor of moderate to large buoyancy (MLCAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg), aided by greater low-level moisture along a residual frontal zone, should develop from the Ozark Plateau northwest into the Mid-MO Valley. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected ahead of the MCV. At least a few of these should develop into supercells given the enhanced low-level SRH. Potential for a couple tornadic storms along with a risk for severe wind/hail should develop during the late afternoon through about dusk. This corridor will probably remain focused on the mesoscale as highlighted by a relatively confined level 2-SLGT. Strong low-level shear will exist with northeast extent in the Upper Midwest, but forecast soundings indicate convection will largely remain elevated, suggesting a more marginal severe hail/wind threat Saturday night. ...Northern Great Plains... A shortwave trough will move northeast across the Pacific Northwest into the southern SK vicinity by early Sunday. A pair of lee cyclones should develop near the Canadian Rockies and over the northern High Plains before tracking eastward into MB to the central Dakotas as a pronounced cold front accelerates eastward Saturday night. Multiple corridors of thunderstorms will likely develop during the late afternoon along the cold front and a lee trough, over southern to eastern MT and the western Dakotas. The degree of buoyancy with western extent into MT is somewhat uncertain where large-scale ascent will initially be greatest. But a plume of MLCAPE from 1500-2500 J/kg amid very steep mid-level lapse rates should develop from the central/western Dakotas into a part of eastern MT. Strengthening mid to upper-level flow with the approaching shortwave trough will yield potential for high-based supercells, conditionally favoring very large hail. 12Z HREF guidance signals convection largely forming west of the larger buoyancy plume and impinging on it during the evening. This suggests that a cluster to linear mode may occur relatively quickly with cold pools spreading east-northeast in the western to central Dakotas. Small-scale bowing structures may develop, locally enhancing severe wind intensity during the evening. Have expanded both level 1-2/MRGL-SLGT risks south and east to account for greater confidence in a mixed severe hail/wind threat occurring. ..Grams.. 06/14/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MID-MO VALLEY AND NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms with damaging winds and large hail are possible from the late afternoon into the evening Saturday, across the Mid-Missouri Valley and in eastern Montana to central North Dakota. A couple tornadic storms may occur in eastern Nebraska to western Iowa, with isolated severe significant severe hail and wind possible in the northern Great Plains. ...Mid-MO Valley... A southern-stream shortwave trough currently centered near the Four Corners will progress northeast into parts of the central Great Plains to Upper Midwest by Saturday afternoon. This trough should contain multiple embedded impulses that are convectively enhanced from D1 convection over the High Plains. The greatest severe threat will likely emanate out of one such MCV as it progresses towards the Mid-MO Valley towards peak heating. While mid-level lapse rates will be weaker in vicinity of the MCV, ample low-level flow should be relatively strong ahead of the broader trough. A confined corridor of moderate to large buoyancy (MLCAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg), aided by greater low-level moisture along a residual frontal zone, should develop from the Ozark Plateau northwest into the Mid-MO Valley. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected ahead of the MCV. At least a few of these should develop into supercells given the enhanced low-level SRH. Potential for a couple tornadic storms along with a risk for severe wind/hail should develop during the late afternoon through about dusk. This corridor will probably remain focused on the mesoscale as highlighted by a relatively confined level 2-SLGT. Strong low-level shear will exist with northeast extent in the Upper Midwest, but forecast soundings indicate convection will largely remain elevated, suggesting a more marginal severe hail/wind threat Saturday night. ...Northern Great Plains... A shortwave trough will move northeast across the Pacific Northwest into the southern SK vicinity by early Sunday. A pair of lee cyclones should develop near the Canadian Rockies and over the northern High Plains before tracking eastward into MB to the central Dakotas as a pronounced cold front accelerates eastward Saturday night. Multiple corridors of thunderstorms will likely develop during the late afternoon along the cold front and a lee trough, over southern to eastern MT and the western Dakotas. The degree of buoyancy with western extent into MT is somewhat uncertain where large-scale ascent will initially be greatest. But a plume of MLCAPE from 1500-2500 J/kg amid very steep mid-level lapse rates should develop from the central/western Dakotas into a part of eastern MT. Strengthening mid to upper-level flow with the approaching shortwave trough will yield potential for high-based supercells, conditionally favoring very large hail. 12Z HREF guidance signals convection largely forming west of the larger buoyancy plume and impinging on it during the evening. This suggests that a cluster to linear mode may occur relatively quickly with cold pools spreading east-northeast in the western to central Dakotas. Small-scale bowing structures may develop, locally enhancing severe wind intensity during the evening. Have expanded both level 1-2/MRGL-SLGT risks south and east to account for greater confidence in a mixed severe hail/wind threat occurring. ..Grams.. 06/14/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MID-MO VALLEY AND NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms with damaging winds and large hail are possible from the late afternoon into the evening Saturday, across the Mid-Missouri Valley and in eastern Montana to central North Dakota. A couple tornadic storms may occur in eastern Nebraska to western Iowa, with isolated severe significant severe hail and wind possible in the northern Great Plains. ...Mid-MO Valley... A southern-stream shortwave trough currently centered near the Four Corners will progress northeast into parts of the central Great Plains to Upper Midwest by Saturday afternoon. This trough should contain multiple embedded impulses that are convectively enhanced from D1 convection over the High Plains. The greatest severe threat will likely emanate out of one such MCV as it progresses towards the Mid-MO Valley towards peak heating. While mid-level lapse rates will be weaker in vicinity of the MCV, ample low-level flow should be relatively strong ahead of the broader trough. A confined corridor of moderate to large buoyancy (MLCAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg), aided by greater low-level moisture along a residual frontal zone, should develop from the Ozark Plateau northwest into the Mid-MO Valley. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected ahead of the MCV. At least a few of these should develop into supercells given the enhanced low-level SRH. Potential for a couple tornadic storms along with a risk for severe wind/hail should develop during the late afternoon through about dusk. This corridor will probably remain focused on the mesoscale as highlighted by a relatively confined level 2-SLGT. Strong low-level shear will exist with northeast extent in the Upper Midwest, but forecast soundings indicate convection will largely remain elevated, suggesting a more marginal severe hail/wind threat Saturday night. ...Northern Great Plains... A shortwave trough will move northeast across the Pacific Northwest into the southern SK vicinity by early Sunday. A pair of lee cyclones should develop near the Canadian Rockies and over the northern High Plains before tracking eastward into MB to the central Dakotas as a pronounced cold front accelerates eastward Saturday night. Multiple corridors of thunderstorms will likely develop during the late afternoon along the cold front and a lee trough, over southern to eastern MT and the western Dakotas. The degree of buoyancy with western extent into MT is somewhat uncertain where large-scale ascent will initially be greatest. But a plume of MLCAPE from 1500-2500 J/kg amid very steep mid-level lapse rates should develop from the central/western Dakotas into a part of eastern MT. Strengthening mid to upper-level flow with the approaching shortwave trough will yield potential for high-based supercells, conditionally favoring very large hail. 12Z HREF guidance signals convection largely forming west of the larger buoyancy plume and impinging on it during the evening. This suggests that a cluster to linear mode may occur relatively quickly with cold pools spreading east-northeast in the western to central Dakotas. Small-scale bowing structures may develop, locally enhancing severe wind intensity during the evening. Have expanded both level 1-2/MRGL-SLGT risks south and east to account for greater confidence in a mixed severe hail/wind threat occurring. ..Grams.. 06/14/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MID-MO VALLEY AND NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms with damaging winds and large hail are possible from the late afternoon into the evening Saturday, across the Mid-Missouri Valley and in eastern Montana to central North Dakota. A couple tornadic storms may occur in eastern Nebraska to western Iowa, with isolated severe significant severe hail and wind possible in the northern Great Plains. ...Mid-MO Valley... A southern-stream shortwave trough currently centered near the Four Corners will progress northeast into parts of the central Great Plains to Upper Midwest by Saturday afternoon. This trough should contain multiple embedded impulses that are convectively enhanced from D1 convection over the High Plains. The greatest severe threat will likely emanate out of one such MCV as it progresses towards the Mid-MO Valley towards peak heating. While mid-level lapse rates will be weaker in vicinity of the MCV, ample low-level flow should be relatively strong ahead of the broader trough. A confined corridor of moderate to large buoyancy (MLCAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg), aided by greater low-level moisture along a residual frontal zone, should develop from the Ozark Plateau northwest into the Mid-MO Valley. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected ahead of the MCV. At least a few of these should develop into supercells given the enhanced low-level SRH. Potential for a couple tornadic storms along with a risk for severe wind/hail should develop during the late afternoon through about dusk. This corridor will probably remain focused on the mesoscale as highlighted by a relatively confined level 2-SLGT. Strong low-level shear will exist with northeast extent in the Upper Midwest, but forecast soundings indicate convection will largely remain elevated, suggesting a more marginal severe hail/wind threat Saturday night. ...Northern Great Plains... A shortwave trough will move northeast across the Pacific Northwest into the southern SK vicinity by early Sunday. A pair of lee cyclones should develop near the Canadian Rockies and over the northern High Plains before tracking eastward into MB to the central Dakotas as a pronounced cold front accelerates eastward Saturday night. Multiple corridors of thunderstorms will likely develop during the late afternoon along the cold front and a lee trough, over southern to eastern MT and the western Dakotas. The degree of buoyancy with western extent into MT is somewhat uncertain where large-scale ascent will initially be greatest. But a plume of MLCAPE from 1500-2500 J/kg amid very steep mid-level lapse rates should develop from the central/western Dakotas into a part of eastern MT. Strengthening mid to upper-level flow with the approaching shortwave trough will yield potential for high-based supercells, conditionally favoring very large hail. 12Z HREF guidance signals convection largely forming west of the larger buoyancy plume and impinging on it during the evening. This suggests that a cluster to linear mode may occur relatively quickly with cold pools spreading east-northeast in the western to central Dakotas. Small-scale bowing structures may develop, locally enhancing severe wind intensity during the evening. Have expanded both level 1-2/MRGL-SLGT risks south and east to account for greater confidence in a mixed severe hail/wind threat occurring. ..Grams.. 06/14/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MID-MO VALLEY AND NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms with damaging winds and large hail are possible from the late afternoon into the evening Saturday, across the Mid-Missouri Valley and in eastern Montana to central North Dakota. A couple tornadic storms may occur in eastern Nebraska to western Iowa, with isolated severe significant severe hail and wind possible in the northern Great Plains. ...Mid-MO Valley... A southern-stream shortwave trough currently centered near the Four Corners will progress northeast into parts of the central Great Plains to Upper Midwest by Saturday afternoon. This trough should contain multiple embedded impulses that are convectively enhanced from D1 convection over the High Plains. The greatest severe threat will likely emanate out of one such MCV as it progresses towards the Mid-MO Valley towards peak heating. While mid-level lapse rates will be weaker in vicinity of the MCV, ample low-level flow should be relatively strong ahead of the broader trough. A confined corridor of moderate to large buoyancy (MLCAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg), aided by greater low-level moisture along a residual frontal zone, should develop from the Ozark Plateau northwest into the Mid-MO Valley. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected ahead of the MCV. At least a few of these should develop into supercells given the enhanced low-level SRH. Potential for a couple tornadic storms along with a risk for severe wind/hail should develop during the late afternoon through about dusk. This corridor will probably remain focused on the mesoscale as highlighted by a relatively confined level 2-SLGT. Strong low-level shear will exist with northeast extent in the Upper Midwest, but forecast soundings indicate convection will largely remain elevated, suggesting a more marginal severe hail/wind threat Saturday night. ...Northern Great Plains... A shortwave trough will move northeast across the Pacific Northwest into the southern SK vicinity by early Sunday. A pair of lee cyclones should develop near the Canadian Rockies and over the northern High Plains before tracking eastward into MB to the central Dakotas as a pronounced cold front accelerates eastward Saturday night. Multiple corridors of thunderstorms will likely develop during the late afternoon along the cold front and a lee trough, over southern to eastern MT and the western Dakotas. The degree of buoyancy with western extent into MT is somewhat uncertain where large-scale ascent will initially be greatest. But a plume of MLCAPE from 1500-2500 J/kg amid very steep mid-level lapse rates should develop from the central/western Dakotas into a part of eastern MT. Strengthening mid to upper-level flow with the approaching shortwave trough will yield potential for high-based supercells, conditionally favoring very large hail. 12Z HREF guidance signals convection largely forming west of the larger buoyancy plume and impinging on it during the evening. This suggests that a cluster to linear mode may occur relatively quickly with cold pools spreading east-northeast in the western to central Dakotas. Small-scale bowing structures may develop, locally enhancing severe wind intensity during the evening. Have expanded both level 1-2/MRGL-SLGT risks south and east to account for greater confidence in a mixed severe hail/wind threat occurring. ..Grams.. 06/14/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MID-MO VALLEY AND NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms with damaging winds and large hail are possible from the late afternoon into the evening Saturday, across the Mid-Missouri Valley and in eastern Montana to central North Dakota. A couple tornadic storms may occur in eastern Nebraska to western Iowa, with isolated severe significant severe hail and wind possible in the northern Great Plains. ...Mid-MO Valley... A southern-stream shortwave trough currently centered near the Four Corners will progress northeast into parts of the central Great Plains to Upper Midwest by Saturday afternoon. This trough should contain multiple embedded impulses that are convectively enhanced from D1 convection over the High Plains. The greatest severe threat will likely emanate out of one such MCV as it progresses towards the Mid-MO Valley towards peak heating. While mid-level lapse rates will be weaker in vicinity of the MCV, ample low-level flow should be relatively strong ahead of the broader trough. A confined corridor of moderate to large buoyancy (MLCAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg), aided by greater low-level moisture along a residual frontal zone, should develop from the Ozark Plateau northwest into the Mid-MO Valley. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected ahead of the MCV. At least a few of these should develop into supercells given the enhanced low-level SRH. Potential for a couple tornadic storms along with a risk for severe wind/hail should develop during the late afternoon through about dusk. This corridor will probably remain focused on the mesoscale as highlighted by a relatively confined level 2-SLGT. Strong low-level shear will exist with northeast extent in the Upper Midwest, but forecast soundings indicate convection will largely remain elevated, suggesting a more marginal severe hail/wind threat Saturday night. ...Northern Great Plains... A shortwave trough will move northeast across the Pacific Northwest into the southern SK vicinity by early Sunday. A pair of lee cyclones should develop near the Canadian Rockies and over the northern High Plains before tracking eastward into MB to the central Dakotas as a pronounced cold front accelerates eastward Saturday night. Multiple corridors of thunderstorms will likely develop during the late afternoon along the cold front and a lee trough, over southern to eastern MT and the western Dakotas. The degree of buoyancy with western extent into MT is somewhat uncertain where large-scale ascent will initially be greatest. But a plume of MLCAPE from 1500-2500 J/kg amid very steep mid-level lapse rates should develop from the central/western Dakotas into a part of eastern MT. Strengthening mid to upper-level flow with the approaching shortwave trough will yield potential for high-based supercells, conditionally favoring very large hail. 12Z HREF guidance signals convection largely forming west of the larger buoyancy plume and impinging on it during the evening. This suggests that a cluster to linear mode may occur relatively quickly with cold pools spreading east-northeast in the western to central Dakotas. Small-scale bowing structures may develop, locally enhancing severe wind intensity during the evening. Have expanded both level 1-2/MRGL-SLGT risks south and east to account for greater confidence in a mixed severe hail/wind threat occurring. ..Grams.. 06/14/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MID-MO VALLEY AND NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms with damaging winds and large hail are possible from the late afternoon into the evening Saturday, across the Mid-Missouri Valley and in eastern Montana to central North Dakota. A couple tornadic storms may occur in eastern Nebraska to western Iowa, with isolated severe significant severe hail and wind possible in the northern Great Plains. ...Mid-MO Valley... A southern-stream shortwave trough currently centered near the Four Corners will progress northeast into parts of the central Great Plains to Upper Midwest by Saturday afternoon. This trough should contain multiple embedded impulses that are convectively enhanced from D1 convection over the High Plains. The greatest severe threat will likely emanate out of one such MCV as it progresses towards the Mid-MO Valley towards peak heating. While mid-level lapse rates will be weaker in vicinity of the MCV, ample low-level flow should be relatively strong ahead of the broader trough. A confined corridor of moderate to large buoyancy (MLCAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg), aided by greater low-level moisture along a residual frontal zone, should develop from the Ozark Plateau northwest into the Mid-MO Valley. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected ahead of the MCV. At least a few of these should develop into supercells given the enhanced low-level SRH. Potential for a couple tornadic storms along with a risk for severe wind/hail should develop during the late afternoon through about dusk. This corridor will probably remain focused on the mesoscale as highlighted by a relatively confined level 2-SLGT. Strong low-level shear will exist with northeast extent in the Upper Midwest, but forecast soundings indicate convection will largely remain elevated, suggesting a more marginal severe hail/wind threat Saturday night. ...Northern Great Plains... A shortwave trough will move northeast across the Pacific Northwest into the southern SK vicinity by early Sunday. A pair of lee cyclones should develop near the Canadian Rockies and over the northern High Plains before tracking eastward into MB to the central Dakotas as a pronounced cold front accelerates eastward Saturday night. Multiple corridors of thunderstorms will likely develop during the late afternoon along the cold front and a lee trough, over southern to eastern MT and the western Dakotas. The degree of buoyancy with western extent into MT is somewhat uncertain where large-scale ascent will initially be greatest. But a plume of MLCAPE from 1500-2500 J/kg amid very steep mid-level lapse rates should develop from the central/western Dakotas into a part of eastern MT. Strengthening mid to upper-level flow with the approaching shortwave trough will yield potential for high-based supercells, conditionally favoring very large hail. 12Z HREF guidance signals convection largely forming west of the larger buoyancy plume and impinging on it during the evening. This suggests that a cluster to linear mode may occur relatively quickly with cold pools spreading east-northeast in the western to central Dakotas. Small-scale bowing structures may develop, locally enhancing severe wind intensity during the evening. Have expanded both level 1-2/MRGL-SLGT risks south and east to account for greater confidence in a mixed severe hail/wind threat occurring. ..Grams.. 06/14/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MID-MO VALLEY AND NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms with damaging winds and large hail are possible from the late afternoon into the evening Saturday, across the Mid-Missouri Valley and in eastern Montana to central North Dakota. A couple tornadic storms may occur in eastern Nebraska to western Iowa, with isolated severe significant severe hail and wind possible in the northern Great Plains. ...Mid-MO Valley... A southern-stream shortwave trough currently centered near the Four Corners will progress northeast into parts of the central Great Plains to Upper Midwest by Saturday afternoon. This trough should contain multiple embedded impulses that are convectively enhanced from D1 convection over the High Plains. The greatest severe threat will likely emanate out of one such MCV as it progresses towards the Mid-MO Valley towards peak heating. While mid-level lapse rates will be weaker in vicinity of the MCV, ample low-level flow should be relatively strong ahead of the broader trough. A confined corridor of moderate to large buoyancy (MLCAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg), aided by greater low-level moisture along a residual frontal zone, should develop from the Ozark Plateau northwest into the Mid-MO Valley. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected ahead of the MCV. At least a few of these should develop into supercells given the enhanced low-level SRH. Potential for a couple tornadic storms along with a risk for severe wind/hail should develop during the late afternoon through about dusk. This corridor will probably remain focused on the mesoscale as highlighted by a relatively confined level 2-SLGT. Strong low-level shear will exist with northeast extent in the Upper Midwest, but forecast soundings indicate convection will largely remain elevated, suggesting a more marginal severe hail/wind threat Saturday night. ...Northern Great Plains... A shortwave trough will move northeast across the Pacific Northwest into the southern SK vicinity by early Sunday. A pair of lee cyclones should develop near the Canadian Rockies and over the northern High Plains before tracking eastward into MB to the central Dakotas as a pronounced cold front accelerates eastward Saturday night. Multiple corridors of thunderstorms will likely develop during the late afternoon along the cold front and a lee trough, over southern to eastern MT and the western Dakotas. The degree of buoyancy with western extent into MT is somewhat uncertain where large-scale ascent will initially be greatest. But a plume of MLCAPE from 1500-2500 J/kg amid very steep mid-level lapse rates should develop from the central/western Dakotas into a part of eastern MT. Strengthening mid to upper-level flow with the approaching shortwave trough will yield potential for high-based supercells, conditionally favoring very large hail. 12Z HREF guidance signals convection largely forming west of the larger buoyancy plume and impinging on it during the evening. This suggests that a cluster to linear mode may occur relatively quickly with cold pools spreading east-northeast in the western to central Dakotas. Small-scale bowing structures may develop, locally enhancing severe wind intensity during the evening. Have expanded both level 1-2/MRGL-SLGT risks south and east to account for greater confidence in a mixed severe hail/wind threat occurring. ..Grams.. 06/14/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MID-MO VALLEY AND NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms with damaging winds and large hail are possible from the late afternoon into the evening Saturday, across the Mid-Missouri Valley and in eastern Montana to central North Dakota. A couple tornadic storms may occur in eastern Nebraska to western Iowa, with isolated severe significant severe hail and wind possible in the northern Great Plains. ...Mid-MO Valley... A southern-stream shortwave trough currently centered near the Four Corners will progress northeast into parts of the central Great Plains to Upper Midwest by Saturday afternoon. This trough should contain multiple embedded impulses that are convectively enhanced from D1 convection over the High Plains. The greatest severe threat will likely emanate out of one such MCV as it progresses towards the Mid-MO Valley towards peak heating. While mid-level lapse rates will be weaker in vicinity of the MCV, ample low-level flow should be relatively strong ahead of the broader trough. A confined corridor of moderate to large buoyancy (MLCAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg), aided by greater low-level moisture along a residual frontal zone, should develop from the Ozark Plateau northwest into the Mid-MO Valley. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected ahead of the MCV. At least a few of these should develop into supercells given the enhanced low-level SRH. Potential for a couple tornadic storms along with a risk for severe wind/hail should develop during the late afternoon through about dusk. This corridor will probably remain focused on the mesoscale as highlighted by a relatively confined level 2-SLGT. Strong low-level shear will exist with northeast extent in the Upper Midwest, but forecast soundings indicate convection will largely remain elevated, suggesting a more marginal severe hail/wind threat Saturday night. ...Northern Great Plains... A shortwave trough will move northeast across the Pacific Northwest into the southern SK vicinity by early Sunday. A pair of lee cyclones should develop near the Canadian Rockies and over the northern High Plains before tracking eastward into MB to the central Dakotas as a pronounced cold front accelerates eastward Saturday night. Multiple corridors of thunderstorms will likely develop during the late afternoon along the cold front and a lee trough, over southern to eastern MT and the western Dakotas. The degree of buoyancy with western extent into MT is somewhat uncertain where large-scale ascent will initially be greatest. But a plume of MLCAPE from 1500-2500 J/kg amid very steep mid-level lapse rates should develop from the central/western Dakotas into a part of eastern MT. Strengthening mid to upper-level flow with the approaching shortwave trough will yield potential for high-based supercells, conditionally favoring very large hail. 12Z HREF guidance signals convection largely forming west of the larger buoyancy plume and impinging on it during the evening. This suggests that a cluster to linear mode may occur relatively quickly with cold pools spreading east-northeast in the western to central Dakotas. Small-scale bowing structures may develop, locally enhancing severe wind intensity during the evening. Have expanded both level 1-2/MRGL-SLGT risks south and east to account for greater confidence in a mixed severe hail/wind threat occurring. ..Grams.. 06/14/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MID-MO VALLEY AND NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms with damaging winds and large hail are possible from the late afternoon into the evening Saturday, across the Mid-Missouri Valley and in eastern Montana to central North Dakota. A couple tornadic storms may occur in eastern Nebraska to western Iowa, with isolated severe significant severe hail and wind possible in the northern Great Plains. ...Mid-MO Valley... A southern-stream shortwave trough currently centered near the Four Corners will progress northeast into parts of the central Great Plains to Upper Midwest by Saturday afternoon. This trough should contain multiple embedded impulses that are convectively enhanced from D1 convection over the High Plains. The greatest severe threat will likely emanate out of one such MCV as it progresses towards the Mid-MO Valley towards peak heating. While mid-level lapse rates will be weaker in vicinity of the MCV, ample low-level flow should be relatively strong ahead of the broader trough. A confined corridor of moderate to large buoyancy (MLCAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg), aided by greater low-level moisture along a residual frontal zone, should develop from the Ozark Plateau northwest into the Mid-MO Valley. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected ahead of the MCV. At least a few of these should develop into supercells given the enhanced low-level SRH. Potential for a couple tornadic storms along with a risk for severe wind/hail should develop during the late afternoon through about dusk. This corridor will probably remain focused on the mesoscale as highlighted by a relatively confined level 2-SLGT. Strong low-level shear will exist with northeast extent in the Upper Midwest, but forecast soundings indicate convection will largely remain elevated, suggesting a more marginal severe hail/wind threat Saturday night. ...Northern Great Plains... A shortwave trough will move northeast across the Pacific Northwest into the southern SK vicinity by early Sunday. A pair of lee cyclones should develop near the Canadian Rockies and over the northern High Plains before tracking eastward into MB to the central Dakotas as a pronounced cold front accelerates eastward Saturday night. Multiple corridors of thunderstorms will likely develop during the late afternoon along the cold front and a lee trough, over southern to eastern MT and the western Dakotas. The degree of buoyancy with western extent into MT is somewhat uncertain where large-scale ascent will initially be greatest. But a plume of MLCAPE from 1500-2500 J/kg amid very steep mid-level lapse rates should develop from the central/western Dakotas into a part of eastern MT. Strengthening mid to upper-level flow with the approaching shortwave trough will yield potential for high-based supercells, conditionally favoring very large hail. 12Z HREF guidance signals convection largely forming west of the larger buoyancy plume and impinging on it during the evening. This suggests that a cluster to linear mode may occur relatively quickly with cold pools spreading east-northeast in the western to central Dakotas. Small-scale bowing structures may develop, locally enhancing severe wind intensity during the evening. Have expanded both level 1-2/MRGL-SLGT risks south and east to account for greater confidence in a mixed severe hail/wind threat occurring. ..Grams.. 06/14/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MID-MO VALLEY AND NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms with damaging winds and large hail are possible from the late afternoon into the evening Saturday, across the Mid-Missouri Valley and in eastern Montana to central North Dakota. A couple tornadic storms may occur in eastern Nebraska to western Iowa, with isolated severe significant severe hail and wind possible in the northern Great Plains. ...Mid-MO Valley... A southern-stream shortwave trough currently centered near the Four Corners will progress northeast into parts of the central Great Plains to Upper Midwest by Saturday afternoon. This trough should contain multiple embedded impulses that are convectively enhanced from D1 convection over the High Plains. The greatest severe threat will likely emanate out of one such MCV as it progresses towards the Mid-MO Valley towards peak heating. While mid-level lapse rates will be weaker in vicinity of the MCV, ample low-level flow should be relatively strong ahead of the broader trough. A confined corridor of moderate to large buoyancy (MLCAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg), aided by greater low-level moisture along a residual frontal zone, should develop from the Ozark Plateau northwest into the Mid-MO Valley. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected ahead of the MCV. At least a few of these should develop into supercells given the enhanced low-level SRH. Potential for a couple tornadic storms along with a risk for severe wind/hail should develop during the late afternoon through about dusk. This corridor will probably remain focused on the mesoscale as highlighted by a relatively confined level 2-SLGT. Strong low-level shear will exist with northeast extent in the Upper Midwest, but forecast soundings indicate convection will largely remain elevated, suggesting a more marginal severe hail/wind threat Saturday night. ...Northern Great Plains... A shortwave trough will move northeast across the Pacific Northwest into the southern SK vicinity by early Sunday. A pair of lee cyclones should develop near the Canadian Rockies and over the northern High Plains before tracking eastward into MB to the central Dakotas as a pronounced cold front accelerates eastward Saturday night. Multiple corridors of thunderstorms will likely develop during the late afternoon along the cold front and a lee trough, over southern to eastern MT and the western Dakotas. The degree of buoyancy with western extent into MT is somewhat uncertain where large-scale ascent will initially be greatest. But a plume of MLCAPE from 1500-2500 J/kg amid very steep mid-level lapse rates should develop from the central/western Dakotas into a part of eastern MT. Strengthening mid to upper-level flow with the approaching shortwave trough will yield potential for high-based supercells, conditionally favoring very large hail. 12Z HREF guidance signals convection largely forming west of the larger buoyancy plume and impinging on it during the evening. This suggests that a cluster to linear mode may occur relatively quickly with cold pools spreading east-northeast in the western to central Dakotas. Small-scale bowing structures may develop, locally enhancing severe wind intensity during the evening. Have expanded both level 1-2/MRGL-SLGT risks south and east to account for greater confidence in a mixed severe hail/wind threat occurring. ..Grams.. 06/14/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MID-MO VALLEY AND NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms with damaging winds and large hail are possible from the late afternoon into the evening Saturday, across the Mid-Missouri Valley and in eastern Montana to central North Dakota. A couple tornadic storms may occur in eastern Nebraska to western Iowa, with isolated severe significant severe hail and wind possible in the northern Great Plains. ...Mid-MO Valley... A southern-stream shortwave trough currently centered near the Four Corners will progress northeast into parts of the central Great Plains to Upper Midwest by Saturday afternoon. This trough should contain multiple embedded impulses that are convectively enhanced from D1 convection over the High Plains. The greatest severe threat will likely emanate out of one such MCV as it progresses towards the Mid-MO Valley towards peak heating. While mid-level lapse rates will be weaker in vicinity of the MCV, ample low-level flow should be relatively strong ahead of the broader trough. A confined corridor of moderate to large buoyancy (MLCAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg), aided by greater low-level moisture along a residual frontal zone, should develop from the Ozark Plateau northwest into the Mid-MO Valley. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected ahead of the MCV. At least a few of these should develop into supercells given the enhanced low-level SRH. Potential for a couple tornadic storms along with a risk for severe wind/hail should develop during the late afternoon through about dusk. This corridor will probably remain focused on the mesoscale as highlighted by a relatively confined level 2-SLGT. Strong low-level shear will exist with northeast extent in the Upper Midwest, but forecast soundings indicate convection will largely remain elevated, suggesting a more marginal severe hail/wind threat Saturday night. ...Northern Great Plains... A shortwave trough will move northeast across the Pacific Northwest into the southern SK vicinity by early Sunday. A pair of lee cyclones should develop near the Canadian Rockies and over the northern High Plains before tracking eastward into MB to the central Dakotas as a pronounced cold front accelerates eastward Saturday night. Multiple corridors of thunderstorms will likely develop during the late afternoon along the cold front and a lee trough, over southern to eastern MT and the western Dakotas. The degree of buoyancy with western extent into MT is somewhat uncertain where large-scale ascent will initially be greatest. But a plume of MLCAPE from 1500-2500 J/kg amid very steep mid-level lapse rates should develop from the central/western Dakotas into a part of eastern MT. Strengthening mid to upper-level flow with the approaching shortwave trough will yield potential for high-based supercells, conditionally favoring very large hail. 12Z HREF guidance signals convection largely forming west of the larger buoyancy plume and impinging on it during the evening. This suggests that a cluster to linear mode may occur relatively quickly with cold pools spreading east-northeast in the western to central Dakotas. Small-scale bowing structures may develop, locally enhancing severe wind intensity during the evening. Have expanded both level 1-2/MRGL-SLGT risks south and east to account for greater confidence in a mixed severe hail/wind threat occurring. ..Grams.. 06/14/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MID-MO VALLEY AND NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms with damaging winds and large hail are possible from the late afternoon into the evening Saturday, across the Mid-Missouri Valley and in eastern Montana to central North Dakota. A couple tornadic storms may occur in eastern Nebraska to western Iowa, with isolated severe significant severe hail and wind possible in the northern Great Plains. ...Mid-MO Valley... A southern-stream shortwave trough currently centered near the Four Corners will progress northeast into parts of the central Great Plains to Upper Midwest by Saturday afternoon. This trough should contain multiple embedded impulses that are convectively enhanced from D1 convection over the High Plains. The greatest severe threat will likely emanate out of one such MCV as it progresses towards the Mid-MO Valley towards peak heating. While mid-level lapse rates will be weaker in vicinity of the MCV, ample low-level flow should be relatively strong ahead of the broader trough. A confined corridor of moderate to large buoyancy (MLCAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg), aided by greater low-level moisture along a residual frontal zone, should develop from the Ozark Plateau northwest into the Mid-MO Valley. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected ahead of the MCV. At least a few of these should develop into supercells given the enhanced low-level SRH. Potential for a couple tornadic storms along with a risk for severe wind/hail should develop during the late afternoon through about dusk. This corridor will probably remain focused on the mesoscale as highlighted by a relatively confined level 2-SLGT. Strong low-level shear will exist with northeast extent in the Upper Midwest, but forecast soundings indicate convection will largely remain elevated, suggesting a more marginal severe hail/wind threat Saturday night. ...Northern Great Plains... A shortwave trough will move northeast across the Pacific Northwest into the southern SK vicinity by early Sunday. A pair of lee cyclones should develop near the Canadian Rockies and over the northern High Plains before tracking eastward into MB to the central Dakotas as a pronounced cold front accelerates eastward Saturday night. Multiple corridors of thunderstorms will likely develop during the late afternoon along the cold front and a lee trough, over southern to eastern MT and the western Dakotas. The degree of buoyancy with western extent into MT is somewhat uncertain where large-scale ascent will initially be greatest. But a plume of MLCAPE from 1500-2500 J/kg amid very steep mid-level lapse rates should develop from the central/western Dakotas into a part of eastern MT. Strengthening mid to upper-level flow with the approaching shortwave trough will yield potential for high-based supercells, conditionally favoring very large hail. 12Z HREF guidance signals convection largely forming west of the larger buoyancy plume and impinging on it during the evening. This suggests that a cluster to linear mode may occur relatively quickly with cold pools spreading east-northeast in the western to central Dakotas. Small-scale bowing structures may develop, locally enhancing severe wind intensity during the evening. Have expanded both level 1-2/MRGL-SLGT risks south and east to account for greater confidence in a mixed severe hail/wind threat occurring. ..Grams.. 06/14/2024 Read more