Severe Storms

MD 1906 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR NORTHWEST KANSAS TO SOUTH-CENTRAL NEBRASKA
Mesoscale Discussion 1906 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1045 PM CDT Fri Aug 08 2025 Areas affected...Northwest Kansas to south-central Nebraska Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 090345Z - 090545Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to increase in areal coverage from northwest Kansas into south central Nebraska. A few storms may be locally severe with a risk for hail and wind. DISCUSSION...Southern influence of northern Rockies/Plains upper trough is expected to aid convection within a post-frontal regime into the early-morning hours. Latest model guidance suggests 500mb flow will increase across northern CO into southern NE. While surface-based parcels are likely capped across this region, frontal lift and cooling 700mb temperatures appear favorable for elevated convection. Latest radar data supports this with a gradual increase in storms across northwest KS. This activity may continue to increase as it spreads/develops northeast over the next several hours. Hail and wind are the primary threats. ..Darrow/Guyer.. 08/09/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...GLD... LAT...LON 40050187 41139930 40349851 39250036 39020178 40050187 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more

WW 0578 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 578 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..SPC..08/09/25 ATTN...WFO...FSD...DLH...MPX...FGF...ABR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 578 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IAC059-119-141-143-167-090440- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DICKINSON LYON O'BRIEN OSCEOLA SIOUX MNC001-003-005-007-009-011-013-015-017-019-021-023-025-029-033- 035-037-041-051-053-057-059-061-063-065-067-071-073-079-081-083- 085-087-091-093-095-097-101-103-105-111-115-117-121-123-127-129- 133-137-139-141-143-145-149-151-153-159-163-165-171-173- 090440- MN . MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE AITKIN ANOKA BECKER BELTRAMI BENTON BIG STONE BLUE EARTH BROWN CARLTON CARVER CASS CHIPPEWA CHISAGO CLEARWATER COTTONWOOD CROW WING DAKOTA DOUGLAS GRANT HENNEPIN HUBBARD ISANTI ITASCA JACKSON Read more

WW 0578 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 578 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..SPC..08/09/25 ATTN...WFO...FSD...DLH...MPX...FGF...ABR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 578 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IAC059-119-141-143-167-090440- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DICKINSON LYON O'BRIEN OSCEOLA SIOUX MNC001-003-005-007-009-011-013-015-017-019-021-023-025-029-033- 035-037-041-051-053-057-059-061-063-065-067-071-073-079-081-083- 085-087-091-093-095-097-101-103-105-111-115-117-121-123-127-129- 133-137-139-141-143-145-149-151-153-159-163-165-171-173- 090440- MN . MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE AITKIN ANOKA BECKER BELTRAMI BENTON BIG STONE BLUE EARTH BROWN CARLTON CARVER CASS CHIPPEWA CHISAGO CLEARWATER COTTONWOOD CROW WING DAKOTA DOUGLAS GRANT HENNEPIN HUBBARD ISANTI ITASCA JACKSON Read more

MD 1905 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA INTO CENTRAL MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST WISCONSIN
Mesoscale Discussion 1905 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0839 PM CDT Fri Aug 08 2025 Areas affected...Eastern South Dakota into central Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 090139Z - 090345Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorm development is anticipated across eastern South Dakota into southwest Minnesota in the coming hours. These storms will quickly intensify and pose a threat for large hail and severe gusts downstream into central Minnesota and eventually northwest Wisconsin later tonight. Watch issuance is expected. DISCUSSION...Recent GOES IR imagery shows the early stages of deepening updrafts along a cold front to the north/northwest of the Sioux Falls, SD area and south of Alexandria, MN. Based on 00z soundings from ABR and OAX, this portion of the front appears to have sufficiently weak MLCIN to allow for convective development, which has been anticipated by afternoon/early-evening CAM guidance during the 02-04 UTC period. As such, confidence is somewhat high that this is the beginning of tonight's more appreciable severe threat across the upper MS Valley. Regional 00z soundings also sampled steep-mid-level lapse rates supporting extreme MLCAPE values on the order of 4000-4500 J/kg. While deep-layer shear within the open warm sector is somewhat weak (around 15-20 per the MPX sounding), northerly post-frontal winds are elongating hodographs within the frontal zone and should promote organized convection shortly after sustained/deep initiation. While a few initial supercells are possible (with an attendant threat for large hail), upscale growth is expected through the late evening hours across central/northeast MN and northwest WI with an increasing risk for severe winds and perhaps brief line-embedded tornadoes - within the warm sector where 0-1 km SRH is on the order of around 100-150 m2/s2. Watch issuance is expected to address this potential. ..Moore/Guyer.. 08/09/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...FSD...ABR... LAT...LON 43869705 44319706 47079521 47499494 47799439 47929371 47929306 47869233 47619162 47459127 47169104 46779089 46289098 46019102 45699132 45439147 45089192 43669537 43539585 43519631 43589672 43869705 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more

WW 0578 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0578 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0759 PM CDT Fri Aug 08 2025 Valid 090100Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN SD INTO MN AND NORTHWEST WI...AND ALSO ACROSS SOUTHWEST SD AND WESTERN NE... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms with damaging winds, large hail, and possibly a tornado are expected to develop this evening and tonight across parts of the Upper Midwest and the central High Plains. ...Eastern Dakotas into MN/northwest WI... Scattered to widespread storm development is still expected later this evening from the far eastern Dakotas into MN, as a seasonably deep mid/upper-level shortwave trough and attendant cold front impinge upon a strongly unstable environment. A few supercells could evolve initially within a moderately sheared environment, with a threat of hail and possibly a tornado. Deep-layer flow/shear generally parallel to the front will likely result in a quick transition to a cluster or linear mode. This could lead to an increasing threat for damaging wind, though there may be some tendency for convection to become slightly anafrontal with time. Guidance suggests the greatest relative threat for more organized upscale growth will be from central into northeast MN, along a diffuse surface boundary. The late timing and the effects of nocturnal low-level stabilization results in some uncertainty regarding the magnitude of the severe-wind threat, but a swath of damaging wind remains possible into the overnight hours. ...Central Plains vicinity... Development of a supercell or two remains possible this evening within a post-frontal regime from southwest SD into western NE, though coverage remains uncertain. Elongated hodographs would support a hail threat with any sustained cells, with localized severe gusts also possible. Some recent runs of the HRRR suggest post-frontal development overnight across parts of southeast WY and northeast CO. While this scenario is uncertain, the environment will be favorable for isolated hail and strong gusts if storms develop. A nebulous but potentially organized severe threat also remains evident overnight across parts of NE into northern IA, within a favorably unstable and modestly sheared environment. Strong elevated storms will be possible as the front moves into the region, with some threat for hail and localized damaging winds. Any organized clustering could result in a locally greater damaging-wind threat. ...Northern Lower MI... A strong storm or two remains possible this evening across northern Lower MI, before convection wanes later tonight as CINH increases. Steep lapse rates, moderate buoyancy, and around 30 kt of effective shear (as noted on the 00Z APX sounding) could continue to support a threat of isolated hail and strong gusts before storms diminish with time. ..Dean.. 08/09/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0759 PM CDT Fri Aug 08 2025 Valid 090100Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN SD INTO MN AND NORTHWEST WI...AND ALSO ACROSS SOUTHWEST SD AND WESTERN NE... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms with damaging winds, large hail, and possibly a tornado are expected to develop this evening and tonight across parts of the Upper Midwest and the central High Plains. ...Eastern Dakotas into MN/northwest WI... Scattered to widespread storm development is still expected later this evening from the far eastern Dakotas into MN, as a seasonably deep mid/upper-level shortwave trough and attendant cold front impinge upon a strongly unstable environment. A few supercells could evolve initially within a moderately sheared environment, with a threat of hail and possibly a tornado. Deep-layer flow/shear generally parallel to the front will likely result in a quick transition to a cluster or linear mode. This could lead to an increasing threat for damaging wind, though there may be some tendency for convection to become slightly anafrontal with time. Guidance suggests the greatest relative threat for more organized upscale growth will be from central into northeast MN, along a diffuse surface boundary. The late timing and the effects of nocturnal low-level stabilization results in some uncertainty regarding the magnitude of the severe-wind threat, but a swath of damaging wind remains possible into the overnight hours. ...Central Plains vicinity... Development of a supercell or two remains possible this evening within a post-frontal regime from southwest SD into western NE, though coverage remains uncertain. Elongated hodographs would support a hail threat with any sustained cells, with localized severe gusts also possible. Some recent runs of the HRRR suggest post-frontal development overnight across parts of southeast WY and northeast CO. While this scenario is uncertain, the environment will be favorable for isolated hail and strong gusts if storms develop. A nebulous but potentially organized severe threat also remains evident overnight across parts of NE into northern IA, within a favorably unstable and modestly sheared environment. Strong elevated storms will be possible as the front moves into the region, with some threat for hail and localized damaging winds. Any organized clustering could result in a locally greater damaging-wind threat. ...Northern Lower MI... A strong storm or two remains possible this evening across northern Lower MI, before convection wanes later tonight as CINH increases. Steep lapse rates, moderate buoyancy, and around 30 kt of effective shear (as noted on the 00Z APX sounding) could continue to support a threat of isolated hail and strong gusts before storms diminish with time. ..Dean.. 08/09/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0759 PM CDT Fri Aug 08 2025 Valid 090100Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN SD INTO MN AND NORTHWEST WI...AND ALSO ACROSS SOUTHWEST SD AND WESTERN NE... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms with damaging winds, large hail, and possibly a tornado are expected to develop this evening and tonight across parts of the Upper Midwest and the central High Plains. ...Eastern Dakotas into MN/northwest WI... Scattered to widespread storm development is still expected later this evening from the far eastern Dakotas into MN, as a seasonably deep mid/upper-level shortwave trough and attendant cold front impinge upon a strongly unstable environment. A few supercells could evolve initially within a moderately sheared environment, with a threat of hail and possibly a tornado. Deep-layer flow/shear generally parallel to the front will likely result in a quick transition to a cluster or linear mode. This could lead to an increasing threat for damaging wind, though there may be some tendency for convection to become slightly anafrontal with time. Guidance suggests the greatest relative threat for more organized upscale growth will be from central into northeast MN, along a diffuse surface boundary. The late timing and the effects of nocturnal low-level stabilization results in some uncertainty regarding the magnitude of the severe-wind threat, but a swath of damaging wind remains possible into the overnight hours. ...Central Plains vicinity... Development of a supercell or two remains possible this evening within a post-frontal regime from southwest SD into western NE, though coverage remains uncertain. Elongated hodographs would support a hail threat with any sustained cells, with localized severe gusts also possible. Some recent runs of the HRRR suggest post-frontal development overnight across parts of southeast WY and northeast CO. While this scenario is uncertain, the environment will be favorable for isolated hail and strong gusts if storms develop. A nebulous but potentially organized severe threat also remains evident overnight across parts of NE into northern IA, within a favorably unstable and modestly sheared environment. Strong elevated storms will be possible as the front moves into the region, with some threat for hail and localized damaging winds. Any organized clustering could result in a locally greater damaging-wind threat. ...Northern Lower MI... A strong storm or two remains possible this evening across northern Lower MI, before convection wanes later tonight as CINH increases. Steep lapse rates, moderate buoyancy, and around 30 kt of effective shear (as noted on the 00Z APX sounding) could continue to support a threat of isolated hail and strong gusts before storms diminish with time. ..Dean.. 08/09/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0759 PM CDT Fri Aug 08 2025 Valid 090100Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN SD INTO MN AND NORTHWEST WI...AND ALSO ACROSS SOUTHWEST SD AND WESTERN NE... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms with damaging winds, large hail, and possibly a tornado are expected to develop this evening and tonight across parts of the Upper Midwest and the central High Plains. ...Eastern Dakotas into MN/northwest WI... Scattered to widespread storm development is still expected later this evening from the far eastern Dakotas into MN, as a seasonably deep mid/upper-level shortwave trough and attendant cold front impinge upon a strongly unstable environment. A few supercells could evolve initially within a moderately sheared environment, with a threat of hail and possibly a tornado. Deep-layer flow/shear generally parallel to the front will likely result in a quick transition to a cluster or linear mode. This could lead to an increasing threat for damaging wind, though there may be some tendency for convection to become slightly anafrontal with time. Guidance suggests the greatest relative threat for more organized upscale growth will be from central into northeast MN, along a diffuse surface boundary. The late timing and the effects of nocturnal low-level stabilization results in some uncertainty regarding the magnitude of the severe-wind threat, but a swath of damaging wind remains possible into the overnight hours. ...Central Plains vicinity... Development of a supercell or two remains possible this evening within a post-frontal regime from southwest SD into western NE, though coverage remains uncertain. Elongated hodographs would support a hail threat with any sustained cells, with localized severe gusts also possible. Some recent runs of the HRRR suggest post-frontal development overnight across parts of southeast WY and northeast CO. While this scenario is uncertain, the environment will be favorable for isolated hail and strong gusts if storms develop. A nebulous but potentially organized severe threat also remains evident overnight across parts of NE into northern IA, within a favorably unstable and modestly sheared environment. Strong elevated storms will be possible as the front moves into the region, with some threat for hail and localized damaging winds. Any organized clustering could result in a locally greater damaging-wind threat. ...Northern Lower MI... A strong storm or two remains possible this evening across northern Lower MI, before convection wanes later tonight as CINH increases. Steep lapse rates, moderate buoyancy, and around 30 kt of effective shear (as noted on the 00Z APX sounding) could continue to support a threat of isolated hail and strong gusts before storms diminish with time. ..Dean.. 08/09/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0759 PM CDT Fri Aug 08 2025 Valid 090100Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN SD INTO MN AND NORTHWEST WI...AND ALSO ACROSS SOUTHWEST SD AND WESTERN NE... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms with damaging winds, large hail, and possibly a tornado are expected to develop this evening and tonight across parts of the Upper Midwest and the central High Plains. ...Eastern Dakotas into MN/northwest WI... Scattered to widespread storm development is still expected later this evening from the far eastern Dakotas into MN, as a seasonably deep mid/upper-level shortwave trough and attendant cold front impinge upon a strongly unstable environment. A few supercells could evolve initially within a moderately sheared environment, with a threat of hail and possibly a tornado. Deep-layer flow/shear generally parallel to the front will likely result in a quick transition to a cluster or linear mode. This could lead to an increasing threat for damaging wind, though there may be some tendency for convection to become slightly anafrontal with time. Guidance suggests the greatest relative threat for more organized upscale growth will be from central into northeast MN, along a diffuse surface boundary. The late timing and the effects of nocturnal low-level stabilization results in some uncertainty regarding the magnitude of the severe-wind threat, but a swath of damaging wind remains possible into the overnight hours. ...Central Plains vicinity... Development of a supercell or two remains possible this evening within a post-frontal regime from southwest SD into western NE, though coverage remains uncertain. Elongated hodographs would support a hail threat with any sustained cells, with localized severe gusts also possible. Some recent runs of the HRRR suggest post-frontal development overnight across parts of southeast WY and northeast CO. While this scenario is uncertain, the environment will be favorable for isolated hail and strong gusts if storms develop. A nebulous but potentially organized severe threat also remains evident overnight across parts of NE into northern IA, within a favorably unstable and modestly sheared environment. Strong elevated storms will be possible as the front moves into the region, with some threat for hail and localized damaging winds. Any organized clustering could result in a locally greater damaging-wind threat. ...Northern Lower MI... A strong storm or two remains possible this evening across northern Lower MI, before convection wanes later tonight as CINH increases. Steep lapse rates, moderate buoyancy, and around 30 kt of effective shear (as noted on the 00Z APX sounding) could continue to support a threat of isolated hail and strong gusts before storms diminish with time. ..Dean.. 08/09/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0759 PM CDT Fri Aug 08 2025 Valid 090100Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN SD INTO MN AND NORTHWEST WI...AND ALSO ACROSS SOUTHWEST SD AND WESTERN NE... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms with damaging winds, large hail, and possibly a tornado are expected to develop this evening and tonight across parts of the Upper Midwest and the central High Plains. ...Eastern Dakotas into MN/northwest WI... Scattered to widespread storm development is still expected later this evening from the far eastern Dakotas into MN, as a seasonably deep mid/upper-level shortwave trough and attendant cold front impinge upon a strongly unstable environment. A few supercells could evolve initially within a moderately sheared environment, with a threat of hail and possibly a tornado. Deep-layer flow/shear generally parallel to the front will likely result in a quick transition to a cluster or linear mode. This could lead to an increasing threat for damaging wind, though there may be some tendency for convection to become slightly anafrontal with time. Guidance suggests the greatest relative threat for more organized upscale growth will be from central into northeast MN, along a diffuse surface boundary. The late timing and the effects of nocturnal low-level stabilization results in some uncertainty regarding the magnitude of the severe-wind threat, but a swath of damaging wind remains possible into the overnight hours. ...Central Plains vicinity... Development of a supercell or two remains possible this evening within a post-frontal regime from southwest SD into western NE, though coverage remains uncertain. Elongated hodographs would support a hail threat with any sustained cells, with localized severe gusts also possible. Some recent runs of the HRRR suggest post-frontal development overnight across parts of southeast WY and northeast CO. While this scenario is uncertain, the environment will be favorable for isolated hail and strong gusts if storms develop. A nebulous but potentially organized severe threat also remains evident overnight across parts of NE into northern IA, within a favorably unstable and modestly sheared environment. Strong elevated storms will be possible as the front moves into the region, with some threat for hail and localized damaging winds. Any organized clustering could result in a locally greater damaging-wind threat. ...Northern Lower MI... A strong storm or two remains possible this evening across northern Lower MI, before convection wanes later tonight as CINH increases. Steep lapse rates, moderate buoyancy, and around 30 kt of effective shear (as noted on the 00Z APX sounding) could continue to support a threat of isolated hail and strong gusts before storms diminish with time. ..Dean.. 08/09/2025 Read more

No watches are valid as of Fri Aug 8 22:36:01 UTC 2025.

MD 1904 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR CENTRAL TO NORTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN
Mesoscale Discussion 1904 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0533 PM CDT Fri Aug 08 2025 Areas affected...Central to northeast Lower Michigan Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 082233Z - 090000Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will continue to develop across Lower Michigan for the next couple of hours, and may pose a transient severe hail/wind threat. Watch issuance is not expected. DISCUSSION...Transient convection has been ongoing across Lower MI along a surface confluence zone for the past couple of hours, but a couple of deeper cells have developed across northeast Lower MI over the past 30-60 minutes per IR imagery and composite reflectivity. Based on MRMS vertical ice data, these cells likely reached sufficient intensity for isolated severe hail (most likely 1 to 1.25 inch in diameter) before gradually weakening. Continued low-level ascent within a weakly capped and buoyant (2000 J/kg MLCAPE) environment will likely continue to promote isolated thunderstorm development prior to sunset and the onset of nocturnal cooling. However, modest deep-layer shear (per regional VWPs) will promote transient storm organization and the potential for sporadic severe hail and damaging winds. In general, the severe threat is expected to remain sufficiently limited to preclude watch issuance. ..Moore/Guyer.. 08/08/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...GRR... LAT...LON 43208427 43148459 43218494 43348516 43588530 43898533 44148508 44468477 44808460 45258420 45398388 45448358 45328334 45048316 44678308 44068316 43708344 43458378 43208427 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Fri Aug 8 22:27:02 UTC 2025.

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0327 PM CDT Fri Aug 08 2025 Valid 101200Z - 161200Z An upper-level ridge over the Southwest will shift westward and build across much of the West by D4/Monday. An upper-level trough will eject across the Pacific Northwest D5/Tuesday into D6/Wednesday, bringing an increase to winds amid dry conditions. Monsoonal moisture may return northward across portions of Arizona late in the extended, with possible expansion of dry thunderstorm chances. ...Dry Thunderstorms... Residual moisture beneath the ridge should allow for a continuation of afternoon thunderstorm potential on D3/Sunday for portions of the Southwest amid low environmental PWAT values and receptive fuels. 10% probabilities have been maintained for the region through Sunday. Thunderstorm potential may extend into early next week, with a gradual increase in moisture northward. Limited predictability within the weak-flow regime beyond D3/Sunday precludes introducing any additional highlights. ...Wind/RH... Elevated to critical conditions may arise next week (D5/Tuesday-D7/Thursday) for portions of the Pacific Northwest and northern Great Basin, as a trough moves inland and enhanced westerly flow overspreads the region. However, considerable spread exists among medium-range guidance regarding the timing/placement/magnitude of this trough, precluding the introduction of any highlights at this time. ..Thornton.. 08/08/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0327 PM CDT Fri Aug 08 2025 Valid 101200Z - 161200Z An upper-level ridge over the Southwest will shift westward and build across much of the West by D4/Monday. An upper-level trough will eject across the Pacific Northwest D5/Tuesday into D6/Wednesday, bringing an increase to winds amid dry conditions. Monsoonal moisture may return northward across portions of Arizona late in the extended, with possible expansion of dry thunderstorm chances. ...Dry Thunderstorms... Residual moisture beneath the ridge should allow for a continuation of afternoon thunderstorm potential on D3/Sunday for portions of the Southwest amid low environmental PWAT values and receptive fuels. 10% probabilities have been maintained for the region through Sunday. Thunderstorm potential may extend into early next week, with a gradual increase in moisture northward. Limited predictability within the weak-flow regime beyond D3/Sunday precludes introducing any additional highlights. ...Wind/RH... Elevated to critical conditions may arise next week (D5/Tuesday-D7/Thursday) for portions of the Pacific Northwest and northern Great Basin, as a trough moves inland and enhanced westerly flow overspreads the region. However, considerable spread exists among medium-range guidance regarding the timing/placement/magnitude of this trough, precluding the introduction of any highlights at this time. ..Thornton.. 08/08/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0327 PM CDT Fri Aug 08 2025 Valid 101200Z - 161200Z An upper-level ridge over the Southwest will shift westward and build across much of the West by D4/Monday. An upper-level trough will eject across the Pacific Northwest D5/Tuesday into D6/Wednesday, bringing an increase to winds amid dry conditions. Monsoonal moisture may return northward across portions of Arizona late in the extended, with possible expansion of dry thunderstorm chances. ...Dry Thunderstorms... Residual moisture beneath the ridge should allow for a continuation of afternoon thunderstorm potential on D3/Sunday for portions of the Southwest amid low environmental PWAT values and receptive fuels. 10% probabilities have been maintained for the region through Sunday. Thunderstorm potential may extend into early next week, with a gradual increase in moisture northward. Limited predictability within the weak-flow regime beyond D3/Sunday precludes introducing any additional highlights. ...Wind/RH... Elevated to critical conditions may arise next week (D5/Tuesday-D7/Thursday) for portions of the Pacific Northwest and northern Great Basin, as a trough moves inland and enhanced westerly flow overspreads the region. However, considerable spread exists among medium-range guidance regarding the timing/placement/magnitude of this trough, precluding the introduction of any highlights at this time. ..Thornton.. 08/08/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0327 PM CDT Fri Aug 08 2025 Valid 101200Z - 161200Z An upper-level ridge over the Southwest will shift westward and build across much of the West by D4/Monday. An upper-level trough will eject across the Pacific Northwest D5/Tuesday into D6/Wednesday, bringing an increase to winds amid dry conditions. Monsoonal moisture may return northward across portions of Arizona late in the extended, with possible expansion of dry thunderstorm chances. ...Dry Thunderstorms... Residual moisture beneath the ridge should allow for a continuation of afternoon thunderstorm potential on D3/Sunday for portions of the Southwest amid low environmental PWAT values and receptive fuels. 10% probabilities have been maintained for the region through Sunday. Thunderstorm potential may extend into early next week, with a gradual increase in moisture northward. Limited predictability within the weak-flow regime beyond D3/Sunday precludes introducing any additional highlights. ...Wind/RH... Elevated to critical conditions may arise next week (D5/Tuesday-D7/Thursday) for portions of the Pacific Northwest and northern Great Basin, as a trough moves inland and enhanced westerly flow overspreads the region. However, considerable spread exists among medium-range guidance regarding the timing/placement/magnitude of this trough, precluding the introduction of any highlights at this time. ..Thornton.. 08/08/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0327 PM CDT Fri Aug 08 2025 Valid 101200Z - 161200Z An upper-level ridge over the Southwest will shift westward and build across much of the West by D4/Monday. An upper-level trough will eject across the Pacific Northwest D5/Tuesday into D6/Wednesday, bringing an increase to winds amid dry conditions. Monsoonal moisture may return northward across portions of Arizona late in the extended, with possible expansion of dry thunderstorm chances. ...Dry Thunderstorms... Residual moisture beneath the ridge should allow for a continuation of afternoon thunderstorm potential on D3/Sunday for portions of the Southwest amid low environmental PWAT values and receptive fuels. 10% probabilities have been maintained for the region through Sunday. Thunderstorm potential may extend into early next week, with a gradual increase in moisture northward. Limited predictability within the weak-flow regime beyond D3/Sunday precludes introducing any additional highlights. ...Wind/RH... Elevated to critical conditions may arise next week (D5/Tuesday-D7/Thursday) for portions of the Pacific Northwest and northern Great Basin, as a trough moves inland and enhanced westerly flow overspreads the region. However, considerable spread exists among medium-range guidance regarding the timing/placement/magnitude of this trough, precluding the introduction of any highlights at this time. ..Thornton.. 08/08/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0327 PM CDT Fri Aug 08 2025 Valid 101200Z - 161200Z An upper-level ridge over the Southwest will shift westward and build across much of the West by D4/Monday. An upper-level trough will eject across the Pacific Northwest D5/Tuesday into D6/Wednesday, bringing an increase to winds amid dry conditions. Monsoonal moisture may return northward across portions of Arizona late in the extended, with possible expansion of dry thunderstorm chances. ...Dry Thunderstorms... Residual moisture beneath the ridge should allow for a continuation of afternoon thunderstorm potential on D3/Sunday for portions of the Southwest amid low environmental PWAT values and receptive fuels. 10% probabilities have been maintained for the region through Sunday. Thunderstorm potential may extend into early next week, with a gradual increase in moisture northward. Limited predictability within the weak-flow regime beyond D3/Sunday precludes introducing any additional highlights. ...Wind/RH... Elevated to critical conditions may arise next week (D5/Tuesday-D7/Thursday) for portions of the Pacific Northwest and northern Great Basin, as a trough moves inland and enhanced westerly flow overspreads the region. However, considerable spread exists among medium-range guidance regarding the timing/placement/magnitude of this trough, precluding the introduction of any highlights at this time. ..Thornton.. 08/08/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more