SPC Feb 23, 2024 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

1 month ago
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1122 AM CST Fri Feb 23 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms are possible across parts of the Carolinas Saturday afternoon, but the risk of severe weather currently appears negligible. ...Synopsis... A more prominent blocking regime is evolving across the southern mid-latitude and subtropical eastern Pacific, with split belts of stronger westerlies becoming broadly confluent into/across the North American Pacific coast. Downstream, an initially amplified regime, including large-scale mid/upper troughing across much of eastern North America, may begin to slowly trend more zonal by the end of the period. While one vigorous embedded short wave impulse of Arctic origins turns eastward across the St. Lawrence Valley through the Canadian Maritimes, a couple of consolidating trailing perturbations (also emanating from the Arctic) are forecast to continue digging southeast of the lower Ohio Valley through the southern Mid Atlantic coast vicinity, before turning eastward into the Atlantic. Associated with these developments, in lower levels, models indicate that modifying Arctic air will be in the process of overspreading New England and northern Mid Atlantic coastal areas by daybreak Saturday, with a secondary surge overspreading the southern Appalachians and much of the Southeast Saturday afternoon through Saturday night. This will be preceded by a more modest surface front, initially stalling across the Canadian Maritimes, while advancing southeast of the Florida Peninsula, and well away from much of the remainder of the southern Atlantic Seaboard by early Saturday. In the wake of this lead front, low-level drying appears likely to continue across the southeastern Gulf of Mexico into the Caribbean. Generally dry conditions likely will prevail across much of the remainder of the Gulf Basin, though models suggest that some boundary-layer modification/moistening may slowly commence in a narrow corridor near the Mexican/northwestern Gulf coast vicinity. ...Carolinas... While boundary-layer moisture content will remain relatively low, insolation likely will contribute to steep low-level lapse rates ahead of the reinforcing cold front, and beneath a cold mid-level environment across most areas south and east of the southern Appalachians by Saturday afternoon. As a 70-90 kt mid-level jet streak (associated with the approaching Arctic impulse) noses toward the southern Atlantic coast, models suggest that forcing for ascent and cold advection may contribute to 500 mb temperatures cooling to as low as -28 to -30 C across the Carolinas Saturday afternoon. It appears that this will contribute to sufficient destabilization to support low topped thunderstorm development, initiating over the higher terrain before spreading east-southeastward into the coastal plain by early Saturday evening. Based on forecasting soundings, the risk for severe weather appears low. However, it may not be entirely out of the question that stronger cells could produce small hail or graupel and perhaps scattered gusts up to around 30-40 kt. ..Kerr.. 02/23/2024 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

1 month ago
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1033 AM CST Fri Feb 23 2024 Valid 231700Z - 241200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes to the ongoing forecast. ..Wendt.. 02/23/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0151 AM CST Fri Feb 23 2024/ ...Synopsis... In the mid levels, troughing is forecast to intensify over the eastern US as ridging builds over the West Coast. Strong mid-level flow will shift over the east as high pressure begins to move into the central US. At the surface, a weak cold front will move offshore with north/northwesterly winds likely behind it. While weaker winds are expected over much of the CONUS, somewhat stronger flow is possible in the lee of the Rockies over parts of the High Plains this afternoon. Localized dry and breezy conditions may emerge across portions of NE, CO, and KS. However, stronger winds will be limited in overlap with dry fuels suggesting fire-weather concerns will be limited for much of the country. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

1 month ago
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1033 AM CST Fri Feb 23 2024 Valid 231700Z - 241200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes to the ongoing forecast. ..Wendt.. 02/23/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0151 AM CST Fri Feb 23 2024/ ...Synopsis... In the mid levels, troughing is forecast to intensify over the eastern US as ridging builds over the West Coast. Strong mid-level flow will shift over the east as high pressure begins to move into the central US. At the surface, a weak cold front will move offshore with north/northwesterly winds likely behind it. While weaker winds are expected over much of the CONUS, somewhat stronger flow is possible in the lee of the Rockies over parts of the High Plains this afternoon. Localized dry and breezy conditions may emerge across portions of NE, CO, and KS. However, stronger winds will be limited in overlap with dry fuels suggesting fire-weather concerns will be limited for much of the country. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

1 month ago
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1033 AM CST Fri Feb 23 2024 Valid 231700Z - 241200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes to the ongoing forecast. ..Wendt.. 02/23/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0151 AM CST Fri Feb 23 2024/ ...Synopsis... In the mid levels, troughing is forecast to intensify over the eastern US as ridging builds over the West Coast. Strong mid-level flow will shift over the east as high pressure begins to move into the central US. At the surface, a weak cold front will move offshore with north/northwesterly winds likely behind it. While weaker winds are expected over much of the CONUS, somewhat stronger flow is possible in the lee of the Rockies over parts of the High Plains this afternoon. Localized dry and breezy conditions may emerge across portions of NE, CO, and KS. However, stronger winds will be limited in overlap with dry fuels suggesting fire-weather concerns will be limited for much of the country. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

1 month ago
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1033 AM CST Fri Feb 23 2024 Valid 231700Z - 241200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes to the ongoing forecast. ..Wendt.. 02/23/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0151 AM CST Fri Feb 23 2024/ ...Synopsis... In the mid levels, troughing is forecast to intensify over the eastern US as ridging builds over the West Coast. Strong mid-level flow will shift over the east as high pressure begins to move into the central US. At the surface, a weak cold front will move offshore with north/northwesterly winds likely behind it. While weaker winds are expected over much of the CONUS, somewhat stronger flow is possible in the lee of the Rockies over parts of the High Plains this afternoon. Localized dry and breezy conditions may emerge across portions of NE, CO, and KS. However, stronger winds will be limited in overlap with dry fuels suggesting fire-weather concerns will be limited for much of the country. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

1 month ago
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1033 AM CST Fri Feb 23 2024 Valid 231700Z - 241200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes to the ongoing forecast. ..Wendt.. 02/23/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0151 AM CST Fri Feb 23 2024/ ...Synopsis... In the mid levels, troughing is forecast to intensify over the eastern US as ridging builds over the West Coast. Strong mid-level flow will shift over the east as high pressure begins to move into the central US. At the surface, a weak cold front will move offshore with north/northwesterly winds likely behind it. While weaker winds are expected over much of the CONUS, somewhat stronger flow is possible in the lee of the Rockies over parts of the High Plains this afternoon. Localized dry and breezy conditions may emerge across portions of NE, CO, and KS. However, stronger winds will be limited in overlap with dry fuels suggesting fire-weather concerns will be limited for much of the country. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

1 month ago
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1033 AM CST Fri Feb 23 2024 Valid 231700Z - 241200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes to the ongoing forecast. ..Wendt.. 02/23/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0151 AM CST Fri Feb 23 2024/ ...Synopsis... In the mid levels, troughing is forecast to intensify over the eastern US as ridging builds over the West Coast. Strong mid-level flow will shift over the east as high pressure begins to move into the central US. At the surface, a weak cold front will move offshore with north/northwesterly winds likely behind it. While weaker winds are expected over much of the CONUS, somewhat stronger flow is possible in the lee of the Rockies over parts of the High Plains this afternoon. Localized dry and breezy conditions may emerge across portions of NE, CO, and KS. However, stronger winds will be limited in overlap with dry fuels suggesting fire-weather concerns will be limited for much of the country. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

1 month ago
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1033 AM CST Fri Feb 23 2024 Valid 231700Z - 241200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes to the ongoing forecast. ..Wendt.. 02/23/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0151 AM CST Fri Feb 23 2024/ ...Synopsis... In the mid levels, troughing is forecast to intensify over the eastern US as ridging builds over the West Coast. Strong mid-level flow will shift over the east as high pressure begins to move into the central US. At the surface, a weak cold front will move offshore with north/northwesterly winds likely behind it. While weaker winds are expected over much of the CONUS, somewhat stronger flow is possible in the lee of the Rockies over parts of the High Plains this afternoon. Localized dry and breezy conditions may emerge across portions of NE, CO, and KS. However, stronger winds will be limited in overlap with dry fuels suggesting fire-weather concerns will be limited for much of the country. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Feb 23, 2024 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

1 month ago
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1003 AM CST Fri Feb 23 2024 Valid 231630Z - 241200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... No organized severe storms are expected today. ...Carolinas... Morning surface analysis shows a low over VA with a trailing cold front extending southwestward into the Gulf Coast states. This front will sweep southeastward today across the Carolinas. Cloud cover is diminishing across SC ahead of the front, which should result in some heating/destabilization. However, this heating will be behind a pre-frontal trough, where veering surface winds are weakening low-level convergence and shear. Cold temperatures aloft and steep lapse rates may still result in a few afternoon thunderstorms, with small hail possible in the stronger cells. However, guidance appears less favorable for severe storms than earlier anticipated. ..Hart/Bentley.. 02/23/2024 Read more

SPC Feb 23, 2024 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

1 month ago
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1003 AM CST Fri Feb 23 2024 Valid 231630Z - 241200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... No organized severe storms are expected today. ...Carolinas... Morning surface analysis shows a low over VA with a trailing cold front extending southwestward into the Gulf Coast states. This front will sweep southeastward today across the Carolinas. Cloud cover is diminishing across SC ahead of the front, which should result in some heating/destabilization. However, this heating will be behind a pre-frontal trough, where veering surface winds are weakening low-level convergence and shear. Cold temperatures aloft and steep lapse rates may still result in a few afternoon thunderstorms, with small hail possible in the stronger cells. However, guidance appears less favorable for severe storms than earlier anticipated. ..Hart/Bentley.. 02/23/2024 Read more

SPC Feb 23, 2024 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

1 month ago
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1003 AM CST Fri Feb 23 2024 Valid 231630Z - 241200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... No organized severe storms are expected today. ...Carolinas... Morning surface analysis shows a low over VA with a trailing cold front extending southwestward into the Gulf Coast states. This front will sweep southeastward today across the Carolinas. Cloud cover is diminishing across SC ahead of the front, which should result in some heating/destabilization. However, this heating will be behind a pre-frontal trough, where veering surface winds are weakening low-level convergence and shear. Cold temperatures aloft and steep lapse rates may still result in a few afternoon thunderstorms, with small hail possible in the stronger cells. However, guidance appears less favorable for severe storms than earlier anticipated. ..Hart/Bentley.. 02/23/2024 Read more

SPC Feb 23, 2024 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

1 month ago
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1003 AM CST Fri Feb 23 2024 Valid 231630Z - 241200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... No organized severe storms are expected today. ...Carolinas... Morning surface analysis shows a low over VA with a trailing cold front extending southwestward into the Gulf Coast states. This front will sweep southeastward today across the Carolinas. Cloud cover is diminishing across SC ahead of the front, which should result in some heating/destabilization. However, this heating will be behind a pre-frontal trough, where veering surface winds are weakening low-level convergence and shear. Cold temperatures aloft and steep lapse rates may still result in a few afternoon thunderstorms, with small hail possible in the stronger cells. However, guidance appears less favorable for severe storms than earlier anticipated. ..Hart/Bentley.. 02/23/2024 Read more

SPC Feb 23, 2024 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

1 month ago
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1003 AM CST Fri Feb 23 2024 Valid 231630Z - 241200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... No organized severe storms are expected today. ...Carolinas... Morning surface analysis shows a low over VA with a trailing cold front extending southwestward into the Gulf Coast states. This front will sweep southeastward today across the Carolinas. Cloud cover is diminishing across SC ahead of the front, which should result in some heating/destabilization. However, this heating will be behind a pre-frontal trough, where veering surface winds are weakening low-level convergence and shear. Cold temperatures aloft and steep lapse rates may still result in a few afternoon thunderstorms, with small hail possible in the stronger cells. However, guidance appears less favorable for severe storms than earlier anticipated. ..Hart/Bentley.. 02/23/2024 Read more

SPC Feb 23, 2024 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

1 month ago
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1003 AM CST Fri Feb 23 2024 Valid 231630Z - 241200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... No organized severe storms are expected today. ...Carolinas... Morning surface analysis shows a low over VA with a trailing cold front extending southwestward into the Gulf Coast states. This front will sweep southeastward today across the Carolinas. Cloud cover is diminishing across SC ahead of the front, which should result in some heating/destabilization. However, this heating will be behind a pre-frontal trough, where veering surface winds are weakening low-level convergence and shear. Cold temperatures aloft and steep lapse rates may still result in a few afternoon thunderstorms, with small hail possible in the stronger cells. However, guidance appears less favorable for severe storms than earlier anticipated. ..Hart/Bentley.. 02/23/2024 Read more

SPC Feb 23, 2024 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

1 month ago
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1003 AM CST Fri Feb 23 2024 Valid 231630Z - 241200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... No organized severe storms are expected today. ...Carolinas... Morning surface analysis shows a low over VA with a trailing cold front extending southwestward into the Gulf Coast states. This front will sweep southeastward today across the Carolinas. Cloud cover is diminishing across SC ahead of the front, which should result in some heating/destabilization. However, this heating will be behind a pre-frontal trough, where veering surface winds are weakening low-level convergence and shear. Cold temperatures aloft and steep lapse rates may still result in a few afternoon thunderstorms, with small hail possible in the stronger cells. However, guidance appears less favorable for severe storms than earlier anticipated. ..Hart/Bentley.. 02/23/2024 Read more

SPC Feb 23, 2024 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

1 month ago
SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0633 AM CST Fri Feb 23 2024 Valid 231300Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... A few strong to severe storms are possible during the afternoon and early evening over parts of South Carolina into southeast North Carolina. ...Synopsis... While ridging will persist across the western U.S., a broad area of cyclonic flow will remain over the central and eastern portions of the country through the period. Within the cyclonic flow field, a short-wave trough will continue moving eastward across the Southeast through this evening. In tandem with this short-wave trough, a cold front now crossing the southern Appalachians will continue advancing across the East Coast States today. The front is expected to clear the Mid- and Southern Atlantic Coasts this evening, while continuing southeastward across the Florida Peninsula tonight. ...South Carolina vicinity... Bands of weak, pre-frontal convection are moving eastward across the southern Appalachians/Southeast early this morning. Clouds and ongoing precipitation will hinder heating this morning, though by afternoon some clearing ahead of the front may occur, which -- combined with relatively steep lapse rates aloft -- should permit modest destabilization to occur. As the front shifts across Georgia and the Carolinas this afternoon, an additional, low-topped band or two of convection should develop. Given relatively strong southwesterly flow aloft, a few stronger thunderstorms may evolve, potentially capable of producing locally strong/gusty winds and marginally severe hail, before storms weaken/move offshore during the evening. ..Goss.. 02/23/2024 Read more

SPC Feb 23, 2024 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

1 month ago
SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0633 AM CST Fri Feb 23 2024 Valid 231300Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... A few strong to severe storms are possible during the afternoon and early evening over parts of South Carolina into southeast North Carolina. ...Synopsis... While ridging will persist across the western U.S., a broad area of cyclonic flow will remain over the central and eastern portions of the country through the period. Within the cyclonic flow field, a short-wave trough will continue moving eastward across the Southeast through this evening. In tandem with this short-wave trough, a cold front now crossing the southern Appalachians will continue advancing across the East Coast States today. The front is expected to clear the Mid- and Southern Atlantic Coasts this evening, while continuing southeastward across the Florida Peninsula tonight. ...South Carolina vicinity... Bands of weak, pre-frontal convection are moving eastward across the southern Appalachians/Southeast early this morning. Clouds and ongoing precipitation will hinder heating this morning, though by afternoon some clearing ahead of the front may occur, which -- combined with relatively steep lapse rates aloft -- should permit modest destabilization to occur. As the front shifts across Georgia and the Carolinas this afternoon, an additional, low-topped band or two of convection should develop. Given relatively strong southwesterly flow aloft, a few stronger thunderstorms may evolve, potentially capable of producing locally strong/gusty winds and marginally severe hail, before storms weaken/move offshore during the evening. ..Goss.. 02/23/2024 Read more

SPC Feb 23, 2024 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

1 month ago
SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0633 AM CST Fri Feb 23 2024 Valid 231300Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... A few strong to severe storms are possible during the afternoon and early evening over parts of South Carolina into southeast North Carolina. ...Synopsis... While ridging will persist across the western U.S., a broad area of cyclonic flow will remain over the central and eastern portions of the country through the period. Within the cyclonic flow field, a short-wave trough will continue moving eastward across the Southeast through this evening. In tandem with this short-wave trough, a cold front now crossing the southern Appalachians will continue advancing across the East Coast States today. The front is expected to clear the Mid- and Southern Atlantic Coasts this evening, while continuing southeastward across the Florida Peninsula tonight. ...South Carolina vicinity... Bands of weak, pre-frontal convection are moving eastward across the southern Appalachians/Southeast early this morning. Clouds and ongoing precipitation will hinder heating this morning, though by afternoon some clearing ahead of the front may occur, which -- combined with relatively steep lapse rates aloft -- should permit modest destabilization to occur. As the front shifts across Georgia and the Carolinas this afternoon, an additional, low-topped band or two of convection should develop. Given relatively strong southwesterly flow aloft, a few stronger thunderstorms may evolve, potentially capable of producing locally strong/gusty winds and marginally severe hail, before storms weaken/move offshore during the evening. ..Goss.. 02/23/2024 Read more

SPC Feb 23, 2024 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

1 month ago
SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0633 AM CST Fri Feb 23 2024 Valid 231300Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... A few strong to severe storms are possible during the afternoon and early evening over parts of South Carolina into southeast North Carolina. ...Synopsis... While ridging will persist across the western U.S., a broad area of cyclonic flow will remain over the central and eastern portions of the country through the period. Within the cyclonic flow field, a short-wave trough will continue moving eastward across the Southeast through this evening. In tandem with this short-wave trough, a cold front now crossing the southern Appalachians will continue advancing across the East Coast States today. The front is expected to clear the Mid- and Southern Atlantic Coasts this evening, while continuing southeastward across the Florida Peninsula tonight. ...South Carolina vicinity... Bands of weak, pre-frontal convection are moving eastward across the southern Appalachians/Southeast early this morning. Clouds and ongoing precipitation will hinder heating this morning, though by afternoon some clearing ahead of the front may occur, which -- combined with relatively steep lapse rates aloft -- should permit modest destabilization to occur. As the front shifts across Georgia and the Carolinas this afternoon, an additional, low-topped band or two of convection should develop. Given relatively strong southwesterly flow aloft, a few stronger thunderstorms may evolve, potentially capable of producing locally strong/gusty winds and marginally severe hail, before storms weaken/move offshore during the evening. ..Goss.. 02/23/2024 Read more

SPC Feb 23, 2024 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

1 month ago
SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0633 AM CST Fri Feb 23 2024 Valid 231300Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... A few strong to severe storms are possible during the afternoon and early evening over parts of South Carolina into southeast North Carolina. ...Synopsis... While ridging will persist across the western U.S., a broad area of cyclonic flow will remain over the central and eastern portions of the country through the period. Within the cyclonic flow field, a short-wave trough will continue moving eastward across the Southeast through this evening. In tandem with this short-wave trough, a cold front now crossing the southern Appalachians will continue advancing across the East Coast States today. The front is expected to clear the Mid- and Southern Atlantic Coasts this evening, while continuing southeastward across the Florida Peninsula tonight. ...South Carolina vicinity... Bands of weak, pre-frontal convection are moving eastward across the southern Appalachians/Southeast early this morning. Clouds and ongoing precipitation will hinder heating this morning, though by afternoon some clearing ahead of the front may occur, which -- combined with relatively steep lapse rates aloft -- should permit modest destabilization to occur. As the front shifts across Georgia and the Carolinas this afternoon, an additional, low-topped band or two of convection should develop. Given relatively strong southwesterly flow aloft, a few stronger thunderstorms may evolve, potentially capable of producing locally strong/gusty winds and marginally severe hail, before storms weaken/move offshore during the evening. ..Goss.. 02/23/2024 Read more
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